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Scott Melker
Is bitcoin headed to $146,000? Not the specific number that I think we all agree is somewhat inevitable on the path to much higher prices. But the real question is, with all the institutional interest and still a seeming lack of retail interest in the asset class, are we really just at the beginning of this bull market? Today's guest, Mike Alfred. Definitely think so. I tend to agree. We're going to talk about that. Everything happening in the news and the market today, of course. Texas West Capital on the back half. Can't wait to get this one started. Let's go, let's go. Let's do $146,000. I like that number, Mike. It's good. Nice, round, even psychological level. 146.
Mike Alfred
Yep. Key level for the quants and the likely next. Yeah, it's the next. It's the next major breakout level.
Scott Melker
I did a poor job of sharing my screen there. I didn't do it the right way, but I'm going to do it the right way now. So we can look at the tweet that inspired this title. The longer we hold at 118,000, the more power we're building for the move to 146. The Bears are completely effed. All their hopes and dreams will be dashed. A lot of bear caves will be coming on the market in the coming months. I bought one recently. Bankruptcy attorneys will be slammed. Market 146. So 118 is the key to 146. Right. If we go to 179, we might only get to 145.
Mike Alfred
Look where we're bouncing around this morning. We're trying to pierce through 118 in the downside, but we just bounced off that level over the last 15 minutes. Over the weekend, obviously, we were testing the high 116 level. That's another area where the quants have said there's tremendous support there. So I view it as. Call it. 115 to 117 is sort of like the area we. We want to stay above in the short term. And then 118 is kind of like that power level where if we can. If we can hold that level for even just another couple days and work off whatever cell pressure there is. I think 120, 124, 128, 130 by the end of the month, by mid August, probably 130s, 140s. And I think 146 is coming in the next 60 days. Right. So probably mid September at the latest. I think the next 60 days will be telling, right? We'll either, we'll either be at 145, 146, 150 area in that 60 day window or we won't. But, but I think the, the odds favor that move happening in that window and that'll set us up for the end of the year run, which should take us in the kind of 175, 250 range, which is where I think we'll end up in December. I, I, I think it's, you know, look, the math doesn't say this right now, right? The, the options market isn't saying this, but I think it's something like 50, 50 that we're at 200k at the end of the year sounding error.
Scott Melker
I mean we just went from 75 to 120 in a matter of months. So I don't think it's that crazy to think that we can make a similar move and be up in the 170s and 180s very easily.
Mike Alfred
Think about the full cycle, right? This is, I was talking about this last night and I think it's an underappreciated point, but we started at 16k right, on December 1st, sorry of January 1st of 2023. And in two and a half years we've gone up well over 7x, right? And we, at one point we were almost up, we're at seven and a half, 8x, you know, last weekend. So we've made this huge move, right on, on one of the largest top 10 asset in the world and yet the average person on the street doesn't care. And I think the reason why is actually kind of a more nuanced point. It has less to do with the absolute price appreciation which you and I are both aware of. We can do the math. It's not hard. You just take 16,000 and you figure out where the current price is and figure out what multiple that is. But the, the issue is the, the path, right? The sequence of returns that, that it took in order to get from 16 to 118. And my argument is that path is effectively the most painful path that you could possibly have taken. Basically the path to confuse and confound and frustrate the maximum number of people, even some professionals or semi professional type investors have lost their either 25, 26k. I remember spaces you guys were holding at the crypto town hall or whatever back in October, September, October of 2023, when Bitcoin was 26K and every single trader you had on stage said they're like 12 lower. We're going back to 18. We're going. And that was like right before we ripped up to 40 and right before the ETF approval where again, what's his name from? Bitmax, Arthur Hayes said, oh, we're going to go lower. And I bought all these puts and we did drop from 42 to 38 and then we ripped to 73. So basically, the way I describe this cycle is a couple of short windows of price appreciation that's quite dramatic and surprising, usually following a long period of consolidation where the very last move in that consolidation was a shakeout lower, just low enough and just long enough to shake out even the. The convicted hands, let alone, again, all of the casual people. So imagine you're a casual observer of this. I told you to buy it at 16. You didn't buy it then. Then you look, it's 25. You say, well, Mike, should I buy it now? And I say, well, maybe. But then guess what? It drops back to 20, right? And so then you ignore it for a little bit. The next time you look, it's 40, 40. And you say, should I buy it there and then? And I say, yeah, and then it goes down to 38. And you say, well, you know what, Mike might be wrong. And then it rips to 73 and you ask me, should I buy it there? And then seven, eight months later, it's 58, right? And so you're like, mike's been wrong again. And then you blink and it's 85, right. And this has been happening the whole way up. And it's happening again right now. Like, we hit 123 the other Sunday in the middle of the night when everyone's sleeping. And I could have told. I told people the whole way up from 116 and even in the previous cycle to buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. But by the time they get around to looking at or doing it, it's consolidating lower and they think they have more time. And so it's going to happen again. They think they'll have forever to buy 115 or 116 or whatever.
Scott Melker
I don't know if it's a meme, the actual stat, but we've all heard it repeatedly like a mantra. There's 10 days of the year that bitcoin makes all of its moves to the upside, right? So you're going to likely miss them. You need to be in the market. I don't know if it's 10 or 20 or 30 or 27 and a half, but the sentiment is correct because of what you just described. Like, it's going to be Sunday night and price is going to go up 15 grand and you were planning to buy a Monday morning.
Mike Alfred
And so here's the interesting part, Scott. So basically, if you agree with my premise that the path and sort of the sequence of returns here is the frustrating part. And even again for professional investors. We talked about this a couple times on your show over the last two and a half years. I said, look, we're up a lot, right? A lot of us are up a lot. If you bought Miners at the low, if you bought MicroStrategy at the low, if you bought Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana at the low, right? You've made a lot of money, but you haven't done that without a significant amount of pain. And so what that type of market regime causes people to do is to expect every major rally to lead to a retracement and or consolidation period. But what tends to happen as these cycles progress is that happens. That happens. That happens until there's a major regime shift where the market stops doing that. And so what causes that final. And the biggest part of the parabola at the end is everybody thinks that things are going to retrace. So what do they do? Every move up, they start taking a lot of profits, they start selling calls, they start hedging right into the period of time where bitcoin stops behaving that way and basically starts to reward the degens, rewards the casual observers. You need to see consistent price appreciation to be interested, right? So let me give you like a counter example of what might have happened in January 2023. Imagine a scenario where instead of going from 16 to 25 to 20, consolidating for six months and then finally breaking out to 40, consolidating for a few months, and then breaking out to 73, consolidating for nine months. Imagine a scenario where it just went up approximately a couple thousand dollars a month every single month, like a cd. Every single retail investor in the country would be in Bitcoin. The reason why they're not is because of the frustrating behavior, the frustrating path that it took. I think that's about to flip, right? I think around somewhere between where we are now and call it 180, there'll be a period where everyone, everyone on Twitter is going to be like, oh, we're going to have another consolidation period. And so you should sell or you should trim. And that'll be the moment when that'll be your Last chance to buy it before it goes completely parabolic. And we see like a 30 or 50k monthly candle or something like that that like basically rewards again, retail or anybody who's piling in late, they'll get 30 or 40k in a month by just buying it. And then a bunch of the old hands or the people have been around for a while will have been selling into that and they'll then have to chase to get back in because they'll realize, wait a second, it's going to a million eventually. So how, how do I know for sure at 150 or 200 or 250, I'll get another chance to buy back in lower before it goes there. What if it goes straight to 500k this cycle, which is a totally plausible.
Scott Melker
120 and 100 are pretty much the same in a million.
Mike Alfred
That's my view and that's been my view the whole way up the cycle, which is that if we're ultimately the end destination point to point is 200, 300, 500, then it's completely silly to sit around on a space and circle jerk with a bunch of traders at 25k about whether it's going to 22 or 27. I mean, again, I hate to harp on it, but we've been having this conversation repetitively online over that period of time and it's been completely wrong to listen to the traders, even the best traders in the world, right? Even the Peter Brandts and people like that. They're, they're great traders. They're excellent at what they do.
Scott Melker
Best traded is not to trade at all. And this is one of the first assets you have where you could do that. You just buy Bitcoin. That's go about your life and it seems so complicated. You know, I wrote a long.
Mike Alfred
That's where having companies having, where fundamental, like having a fundamental overlay matters, right? Because if you don't understand what it is fundamentally, then you'll trade it like it's corn or sugar or wheat, right? Or orange juice or something. And like great. Like maybe those classical charting methodologies work fine for those assets, but I can tell you for a fact that Bitcoin is not orange juice.
Scott Melker
Definitely not orange juice. So I have a problem. And before we dig in, you have one more funny tweet that I have to show because I want to see you eat 100 hot dogs, but I also want to see. I bid at a hundred dollars, she said, ibid will be a hundred by Thanksgiving. Otherwise I'll eat a Hundred hot dogs in one sitting without puking. If I puke at any point, I'll give all my followers who like, I'm gonna like this. Okay.
Mike Alfred
Just in case you have to retweet it too. Otherwise you don't qualify.
Scott Melker
0.1 Bitcoin and all expenses paid trip to El Salvador and Bhutan. Dude, I want to be in the mix for that. I'd rather $100, I bet, than to see you try to eat 100 hot dogs. Listen, this is the same sentiment. Shit's going up.
Mike Alfred
It's not. It's not gonna. Look, no one's gonna get paid for that unless you're long, I bet. And what I've been buying recently, and I've been hammering the last Couple weeks is November 90 calls. They were up pretty nicely yesterday. More than a lot of the other call strikes in that area. I think you get a lot of convexity there. You've got a lot of time, right. I think the. A big chunk of the move could happen in the next two months. And so you got a whole other two months on the back and you got four months till expiration. But you're buying them. I was buying them at A$80. I think they're at. They closed at 210 or 215 or something the other day. But I could see those calls trading at an intrinsic value, right, of like 20 or 30 bucks quite easily in that window. If I bit goes to call it 110 or. Or 120, and that's just a straight double from here. So that's what you're kind of playing for. And again, you've got enough time value in those options that you just need the price of bitcoin to break out and go your direction. And they'll be very profitable. I've. Ibid and Cipher are the two securities where I've actually had a lot of success just buying.
Scott Melker
Okay.
Mike Alfred
Calls.
Scott Melker
What about iron? Because listen, I'm going to. I'm going to give you your flowers very publicly because not only did you come on this show multiple times, when iron was out four bucks.
Mike Alfred
November 2023, I looked it up. It was 280. Yeah, that was when I.
Scott Melker
Because that's around where I bought. So, yeah, 280 to 350. I think I bought because literally you convinced me, not because you said, hey, Scott, buy this. Because you made the case and I made my own financial decision. I know a lot of people here bought iron up, down, all in between, because we talked about it so much and I'VE told the story many times of a dinner that we went to in Vegas where we talked about it and two of my friends, one of them bought in. He took a very big boy position in iron and called me this week and was very, very happy about it. Right, so miners in general, maybe, like, you know, why, why this big move finally? Why now? And what's next, do you think, for these? Are they going to continue to just be high beta? You know, bitcoin makes a move and then they make a bigger move. How do you view it?
Mike Alfred
I mean, look, a, not a lot to actually change, right? Like this is just a perfect lesson in sentiment versus fundamentals, right? And so sentiment has been largely depressed, slash compressed since Q1 of, of 24. The, the major move for miners this cycle actually happened between January of 2023 and July of 2023. That's where off the bottom, several miners did 10 15x including ciphers. And so I think what you're seeing now is just an awareness that every single megawatt of power that these miners control is in huge demand because Meta and Oracle and Google and Microsoft and these huge hyperscalers, they're all trying to secure power for AI. And the queue to get power like in Texas is five, six, seven years long. And so there's a time to execution problem that a lot of these big AI players have. And it's converging with the same demand for the power the bitcoin miners already control. Remember, a lot of the bitcoin miners acquired this power just before Chat GPT even came out. So you look at some of the big sites that Iron controls, like they, they bought those before Chat GPT was, it was really clear what it was or how big it was going to be. And so they secured that, that land and power cheap when it was still available. Now, now you effectively can't recreate these assets. So the contrast I'd make is between basically reverse mergers and spacs that all these guys are doing, raising 500 million to buy Bitcoin, which is a dime a dozen. Anyone can do it. I could do it. You could do it. In fact, I've had the opportunity to do it and I've said no, I've been approached, right? And I won't do it because I don't think there's any sustainable competitive advantage to trying to buy bitcoin at spot prices. Contrast that with, hey, we spent five or six years aggregating power and land that you cannot replicate because it doesn't exist. Like it's it's finite in the real world, there's only so much power that'll be generated. And we went and bought up a whole bunch of that capacity. And now if you wanted to recreate it, even if you had infinite money, you actually couldn't recreate the same footprint very quickly because you'd have to buy the existing companies that are there. And a lot of those companies are not for sale. So you have true scarcity in this infrastructure space that you don't have if you're just again, using the securities markets to issue different forms of securities and then using that cash to buy Bitcoin. And so I'm not negative on bitcoin. Treasury companies, I think they're quite bullish for bitcoin. I do think as an equity holder in those companies, you have to ask yourself, what do you really own? At the end of the cycle when bitcoin drops from 300 or 400k back to 80 or 100k, what do you actually own? And I'm not sure you have any sort of sustainable long term competitive differentiation between them. Where you have here, I made a.
Scott Melker
Chart while we were talking of iron, just in case you need that.
Mike Alfred
Yeah, that was, that was November. November 2023 was when I really pounded the table because there was literally one of your shows where it says Buy Miners, right?
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think it was literally the title Mike Alfred says by miners now. Dumbass. Yeah. Okay, so listen, I want to talk to you about something else. So obviously it's say it. It branches off from the treasury conversation. But we've seen for a little while here Ethereum effectively outperforming Bitcoin. Right. We've got a few pieces of news. US spot Ethereum ETFC 534 million inflows, third largest on record. Amend sustained ETH momentum. We had a day two days ago, I think where we was like 280, but the Bitcoin ETFs were down 100 and 60. Right. This is not things we've generally seen. We know that Trump's been buying ETH and bitcoin to be fair. Right. But the Trump world, Liberty Financial has been buying ETH like crazy. They're still buying eth. Now I want your take on eth. Listen, I know how you view Bitcoin as a separate asset like I do from the rest of crypto, but is eat something that you're actually interested even just as a trade in this environment.
Mike Alfred
I've owned it the whole time. Right. So I don't know if we've Talked about it before but my current ETH position was acquired in 2020 at just over $300. And then during the spring of this year as ETH was falling, I was recommending the, the iShares Ethereum Trust ETHA.
Scott Melker
Right. It was trading at the big discount like it was kind of the GBTC trade all over again.
Mike Alfred
Well not, not Eth A E. Right. Ethe was the grayscale version before the etf. Yes I did. Yes, that was, that was last year. But this year in the spring as, as Ethereum was falling, I was telling people, look like at some point you'll know that we're in the steep part of the bull market when Ethereum and some of these other assets start to for a period of time outperform Bitcoin. I just am careful about talking about them too much because I don't want to give the impression that I think that's a better alternative than Bitcoin. I think for most people they're going to do much better over 10 years just buying and holding spot Bitcoin. But personally like I like to have a little bit of additional exposure. I view it as like a VC style speculation. I don't view it as a competitor to Bitcoin. And I've made. What am I, what, what's it at right now? 3600. So I've made 12x over five years which is within the range of like what I look for for this style of investment. Of course I own a bunch of really boring stuff that pays dividends and private companies and. Right. So I'm not a maxi. Right. I've been very clear about that. I've been kicked out of the maxi community because, because I actually have my own views and I am an independent thinker and, and the Maxis are, are basically like a monoculture. So look, they, they don't like Ethereum. They said Ethereum would never outperform Bitcoin again. I never believed that. I thought at some point we would know we were entering kind of the fifth, sixth, seventh inning of the cycle. When we start to see that the combination of the Bitcoin treasury mania and some of the meme stock behavior I'm seeing recently and then things like Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin that leads me to believe that we're closer to the sixth inning than the third inning. I wouldn't be running out to buy Ethereum here, but I could Definitely see Ethereum at 6, 8, 10K, maybe significantly higher by the end of the cycle. I mean there's no doubt in my mind that with liquidity flowing that that can happen.
Scott Melker
Yeah, we're see, we're seeing a few of those beginning froth signs right here. You have meme stock fever as you just mentioned, not worth talking, but spreading like it's 2021. With coal soaring, a lot of the heavily shorted institutional stocks are starting to catch a, a retail bid. And when Ethereum flies, we know that some of that's going to start to go down into nonsensical altcoins that will have like these brief moments in the sun and probably won't last.
Mike Alfred
You know, I, I posted a tweet this, this weekend about the Ethereum move where it went over 3,800 and I basically said this is what you want to see if you're long risk assets, because that move is basically signaling that the dollar is going to continue to be weak. It may not weaken significantly from here, but it'll continue to be muted like DXY sub 100 maybe at some point, sub 95, maybe down to the 85 or 90 level. Yields, long term yields have come in. Right. We're seeing some relief on the tariffs. We're seeing tariff deals finally get signs. So the Mac, the macro is getting more and more supportive. Global M2 has continued to continued higher. So we, you do want to see like froth in some of these further out areas. That's the signal that Bitcoin is going to continue higher. Bitcoin will be the ultimate beneficiary of a lot of this stuff over the course of the remainder of the cycle. And it may not outperform on a percentage basis, but it's a much bigger asset. And so the amount of absolute wealth it will create will fall, will dwarf anything happening in meme coins or any of these other coins. But again, I don't care. I like when people make 100x on one of those other coins because it means we're making a lot of money in bitcoin.
Scott Melker
Yeah. I've obviously been going through the mental gymnastics of these treasury companies and where each thing falls. And so I kind of wrote a long thread about it literally while I was on YouTube yesterday. But my belief is that if you're going to use Bitcoin, it should just be a balance sheet asset because trying to beat bitcoin with bitcoin is so incredibly difficult. Right. Like doesn't have native yield, doesn't have any of these things. I think this surprises people now that I'm kind of thinking through this. But for a Treasury company, although I would just actually just brand them as Altcoin hedge funds. Because it's not a Treasury company. Because none of these assets deserve to be a Treasury asset besides bitcoin, like for 50 years that it's actually makes a hell of a lot more sense to do all this financial engineering and stupidity to beat an Altcoin than it does to try to beat Bitcoin. Because you're taking so much risk on an asset where you don't need to take risk, just be honest about it and say, listen, we're a hedge fund, we think we can beat Ethereum. And you can beat Ethereum because you can take all the Ethereum you gather and you can simply stake it or go into Defi and actually earn a safe yield and you beat Ethereum and then you can go like buy a couple other layer twos that you think might outperform. You can beat Ethereum.
Mike Alfred
Yeah, because the yield is native to the currency.
Scott Melker
You can beat Ethereum using Ethereum. You can't beat Bitcoin using Bitcoin. You have to take some kind of risk.
Mike Alfred
I, I read that thread Scott, and I actually thought it was really well said and I think if you had thought this deeply about some of the things that were going on last cycle, you would have avoided a lot of crap. Right? And so but look like, yeah, you.
Scott Melker
Live and learn, you know, you live.
Mike Alfred
And learn and you evolve and people are allowed to, to change their views on things. But in any event, I saw it, I liked it, I agree with it. I, I've shared a similar view but with a slight, a slightly different kind of nuance to it. But that's based more on like what I've noticed in the market. My argument is that basically the more sound your treasury strategy is, the less likely you are to see return in the, from the investor standpoint. So like if you look at micro strategy, all the return happened before anyone was talking about it. Like I was talking about it in 2023 as a long alongside Coinbase and Ethereum and a bunch of stuff that.
Scott Melker
1.8, that's not sexy anymore.
Mike Alfred
Yeah, I was just buying it because I was like, look, they're the leader in this Treasury. It wasn't even called treasury back then. It was just their Bitcoin corporate Bitcoin market buyers. That's all these new companies are. They're market buying Bitcoin at whatever price they can get their hands on capital. Right? And so these market buying Bitcoin companies are going out and acquiring Bitcoin at the market price. And nobody's going to be able to catch Michael Saylor because the market impact of trying to buy as much Bitcoin as Michael Saylor currently has would move the price of bitcoin too high. To acquire enough, you'd have to be a nation state or you'd have to be Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, etc, and you need to move right now. And even then they may not be able to catch Michael Sailor because if they drive the price of bitcoin up enough, Michael Sailor can keep issuing more securities and keep his lead. So, so my argument was like, because this was about a month or two ago, I said, Look, MetaPlanet will outperform because it was a hotel company that nobody knew of. And so basically what you want to buy are the companies that surprise you, either because they, they come out of nowhere and you've never heard of them before or because they're using like, like the shittiest crypto possible that you don't think is going to work. And the delta between what is reasonable and where they end up is where the return is. So if you're coming out with 100th Bitcoin treasury strategy where you're not doing anything different than Saylor, you're not going to get a return as, as an investor, if you, if you're the first Pepe coin, a Treasury strategy, you have a chance to outperform. Even, even if the coin is stupid, you have a chance to outperform because the delta between what the market expected and what might actually happen is large enough and surprising enough that that's where the return comes from.
Scott Melker
Because if you literally do anything positive, you can catch the interest of a bunch of retail or institutions and it'll just pump much harder. And Meta Planet also has this unique advantage that I think is the direction of Bitcoin treasury companies, which was that Meta planet was like MicroStrategy in 2020 or 2021 for Japan. You can't go to Japan and buy a BlackRock ETF if you're an institution, right? So you need some sort of proxy. And Meta Planet, like microstrategy was sort of the first proxy. That's okay.
Mike Alfred
And there's huge, there's, there's two other.
Scott Melker
Arbitrage on the taxes, taxes, but also.
Mike Alfred
The fact that their bond market and their economy was in a difficult spot right when they were starting to, to fund it. So people were looking for a way out of the end, right? The end was weak and weakening, the economy was weak, the bond market was weak Right. And so that's not going to be the case structurally with every other treasury company. So I'm a bit, I'm a bit skeptical. I'm not as bearish as, as I, I know you, you guys are and I understand I'm becoming you. I, I think I, I think, I think you can be bearish on the whole space near the top. Right. But I think it would be sort of dumb to be too negative when we're still mid to mid to late cycle where the biggest move may still be ahead of us. And so effectively everything's going to go up. You don't want to get too cute with these kind of relative value arbitrage trades. You're going to see people saying I'm going to be long Meta Planet, short microstrategy or long Nakamoto and short asset entities or something. And I just think that kind of stuff is a waste of time. You're, maybe you're going to get mid single digits or, or low double digit returns when all you need to do is go long the entire sector for the next six months and you, you might get a 5X. Right.
Scott Melker
So just be long. Listen, I know it's 9:30 and it's usually when we cut. Is there anything else I missed that you want to like, quickly talk about?
Mike Alfred
I would just note the volume increase on Cipher three weeks ago. Two. Three weeks ago. The price increase and then the, the spike yesterday I noted There was around 8:45am Pacific. There's this huge spike. To me it looked like some sort of entity discovering that there was a deal in the works. And so the, the rumor was that that's been going around is that Meta is doing a deal with them. I have no idea. I think eventually every megawatt in the United States gets monetized, including all of Ciphers megawatts and all of Iron's megawatts. But I'd keep an eye on that space because I expect some fireworks. Hyperscaler direct deals not with Core Weave, but with, with like a Google, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, etc. Between now and the end of the year, like I think there's going to be a handful of those deals coming. And I think combined with a move towards 150k bitcoin, you have a really explosive setup for companies like Cypher and Iron. So keep an eye on those.
Scott Melker
Love it, man. Thanks for always waking up early to come make a few jokes and share your perspective here. I love it. And you got to come visit me soon, man.
Mike Alfred
Anytime. Congrats on the new house.
Scott Melker
Let's do it. Thank you, man. All right, bye, guys. Give Mike a follow, please. All right, now, of course, since it is Wednesday, we got Aptos as our sponsor. It's been a long time. Pretty. Pretty good. You know, it's hard to keep. To keep a really solid, amazing sponsor around for a long time. We've managed to do it because you guys. Check them out. Listen, I'm not going to read all of these, but this is your weekly update on all things Aptos ecosystem. In case you've been living under a rock, this is how many things have launched just this week on aptos. I break down for you why it's important every single week, why I believe it's important that we have competition among these L1s, because one day we're going to get fastest, cheapest and most secure and in my opinion, aptos doing exceptional, exceptional job of competing in that arena. If you're trying to build something, if you're trying to really dig in deep to blockchain and UX ui, that's simple to use for grandma. Check them out. What else you gotta check out is Christopher Inks. What's up, man? Oh, man. Chris, you do not have sound, but you hear. It sounds like you got a beat. You hear that? Oh, man, you don't hear the beat. Do you guys like lo fi? Yeah, we're gonna try. We're gonna try maybe mute you and fix your mic because. Because I'm not sure anybody can. Can hear that. You let me know when you make a change. But I. That was literally a perfect beat. Did you guys hear that? Did you guys hear it or is it just me? Because I never know because me. I think you need a new. A new mic setting or something. I'm going to unmute you for a second. Ready? Still still got a beat. Still got a beat. So you guys are amazing in the comments. Carl Cox. That did sound like that. Actually, it sounded more like. Like Richie Haughton for the old techno people. Like, I once went to the Detroit Electronic Music Festival. Must have been 2001. I played at the 2nd Detroit Electronic Music Festival, believe it or not, on like the third stage on the side. But I went to a warehouse to HEAR Richie Haughton DJ, like at. From, I don't know, 3 in the morning to 10 in the morning. And basically what you just heard, that was like the entire eight hours because minimal techno and like one strobe light in a pitch black room. It was wild. Vinny's seen Richie Hutton. Vinny's seen Richie Hutton. Yeah, you guys are still here, which I appreciate. I mean, you know, I could. I think I could theoretically open charts, but it's kind of his job. It's kind of his job. I don't know if he's gonna come back. To be honest, man, I wish he was still here, because now I can't even make the beat anymore. Electronic Music Festival. Yeah. So it used to be called. I don't know what it became. Detroit. They changed the name. But the original names of the huge Detroit festivals. D E M F. The Detroit Electronic Music Festival. First one must have been, like, 2000 maybe. I was there 2001. Oh, we got new beat, dude. This one's a little, like, the notes are a little more muted. Kind of feels like you used an effects processor. Pretty fresh green, Mrs. ODB, off topic, but I agree. Apparently in the new Wu Tang. We're going off. We're going off here. But apparently in the new wu Tang shows, ODB's son is ODB under this new tour. Still got it, man. I think we're gonna have to bag it today. I don't. Now, you're gonna watch this back, though, and you're gonna love it. I'm telling you, man. All right, ladies and gentlemen, Christopher. Okay, so that didn't really work too well. Yeah. And ODB's son is ODB in the New Wu Tang tour. I don't know if the tour's over. They said it's the last tour, and people said it was epic. And I actually didn't go. I had a chance to go, and I had seen them maybe two years ago, and it was so bad that it was, like, wildly disappointed, disappointing. And I didn't want to subject myself to that again. And apparently I missed out. Like, I go to a lot of, like, Legacy act shows because I'm 48 years old and I still want to believe. But, like, years ago, I went to, I don't know, like, a new edition reunion tour or something, and Bobby Brown could only come out on stage, like, every 37 minutes to do, like, a half a song. He couldn't dance. He was, like, ready to pass out and couldn't sing. I was like, damn, man. Bobby Brown, you know, these legacy tours, they're brutal. They're brutal. But apparently this Wu Tang one was really, really good. Yeah. Okay, guys, well, it's been fun. Anything but those horns. I'm gonna literally play those for you right now as a. Whatever Just piss you off. I would play other music, guys, but as I mentioned. Last week we got a warning on the channel for one of our titles being, like, dangerous content and harmful. I guess we use too many exclamation points or whatever. And now if I get another warning, I get a strike and I get removed for a week and then potentially removed from YouTube because my title was like, all coin season here. And it was like, question mark, exclamation. Oh, man, I don't know. Yeah, Wu Tang, Run the Jewels. That's the tour. That's a tour. Raekwon. What are we talking about Raekwon for? I used to DJ for Raekwon. He has a new album. Yeah, yeah. People probably don't know that I was a dj, but, yeah, it was for a very brief time on a weird European tour with crazy stories. I was DJ'd for rake one. Yeah. True story. All right, guys, that is all we have for you. I'm out of here. We'll try to run it back tomorrow. That's dope.
Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets – "Bitcoin To $146,000? Real Bitcoin Bull Market Hasn't Started Yet | Mike Alfred"
Release Date: July 23, 2025
In this insightful episode of "The Wolf Of All Streets," host Scott Melker engages in a deep conversation with Bitcoin strategist Mike Alfred. The discussion delves into the future trajectory of Bitcoin, its market dynamics, investment strategies, and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency beyond Bitcoin. The following summary captures the essence of their comprehensive dialogue.
Scott Melker opens the episode by probing the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the $146,000 mark. He emphasizes that while $146,000 is a significant psychological milestone, the real focus should be on the broader bull market potential driven by institutional interest despite subdued retail enthusiasm.
Notable Quote:
Scott Melker [00:01]: "Is bitcoin headed to $146,000? Not the specific number that I think we all agree is somewhat inevitable on the path to much higher prices."
Mike Alfred concurs, suggesting that $146,000 is not only achievable but also sets the stage for even higher valuations.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [01:01]: "Yep. Key level for the quants and the likely next. Yeah, it's the next major breakout level."
The conversation transitions to technical analysis, where both hosts discuss critical price levels that could influence Bitcoin's movement. They highlight the significance of the $118,000 level as a pivotal point for breaking into higher price territories.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [01:41]: "115 to 117 is sort of like the area we want to stay above in the short term. And then 118 is kind of like that power level where if we can hold that level for even just another couple days and work off whatever sell pressure there is."
Alfred projects a steady ascent to $130 by mid-August, potentially reaching $140 and $146 within the next two months, with further possibilities extending into the year-end range of $175,000 to $250,000.
Mike Alfred provides a retrospective analysis of Bitcoin's price movements over the past two and a half years, emphasizing the challenging "sequence of returns" that has tested investor patience. He illustrates how rapid rallies followed by consolidations and minor retracements have often frustrated both retail and professional investors.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [03:19]: "The path and sort of the sequence of returns here is the frustrating part... Basically, the path to confuse and confound and frustrate the maximum number of people."
He warns that this pattern is likely to repeat, leading up to a significant bullish breakout that could propel Bitcoin into a parabolic rise, rewarding late investors who remain steadfast.
Discussing the disparity between institutional and retail interest, the hosts explore how institutional players are accumulating Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for substantial price increases. Mike Alfred highlights that institutional strategies, such as those employed by Bitcoin treasury companies and miners, are crucial for sustained growth.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [09:23]: "Because you have so much power on a balance sheet, especially in the long term... All of this stuff is about to gain so much more interest."
The dialogue shifts to investment strategies, where Mike Alfred advocates for a long-term holding approach over active trading. He criticizes the volatile market behavior that often leads traders to make reactive decisions, emphasizing the benefits of holding Bitcoin through its inevitable upward trajectory.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [10:08]: "If you don't understand what it is fundamentally, then you'll trade it like it's corn or sugar or wheat."
Scott Melker reinforces this viewpoint by suggesting that the best trading strategy might be to trade not at all, recommending a straightforward buy-and-hold strategy for Bitcoin investors.
A significant portion of the conversation focuses on Bitcoin treasury companies and mining operations. Mike Alfred discusses the competitive advantages of companies like Iron, which have secured substantial mining capacity and power resources. He contrasts these with firms that attempt to purchase Bitcoin directly through securities markets, arguing that infrastructure-focused companies possess a more sustainable edge.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [16:09]: "They secured that land and power cheap when it was still available. Now, you effectively can't recreate these assets."
He warns investors to scrutinize the fundamentals of treasury companies, as many may lack sustainable competitive advantages beyond their Bitcoin holdings.
Beyond Bitcoin, the hosts explore the performance and potential of Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins. Mike Alfred shares his experience with Ethereum, noting its significant appreciation since 2020 and discussing its role as a supplementary investment rather than a direct competitor to Bitcoin.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [17:24]: "I view it as like a VC style speculation. I don't view it as a competitor to Bitcoin."
He anticipates Ethereum reaching $6,000 to $10,000 by the end of the current cycle, fueled by institutional interest and its intrinsic value within the broader crypto ecosystem.
The conversation touches on recent market events, including notable spikes in mining companies like Cipher and Iron. Mike Alfred speculates on potential deals with major tech companies (hyperscalers) and predicts explosive growth for these mining firms as Bitcoin approaches the $150,000 mark.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [26:59]: "I expect some fireworks. Hyperscaler direct deals... combined with a move towards 150k bitcoin, you have a really explosive setup for companies like Cypher and Iron."
As the episode wraps up, both hosts reiterate their bullish outlook on Bitcoin's future, emphasizing the importance of foundational strengths over speculative trading. They encourage listeners to adopt a long-term perspective, highlighting the vast potential for wealth generation as Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory.
Notable Quote:
Mike Alfred [22:35]: "Everything's going to go up. You don't want to get too cute with these kind of relative value arbitrage trades."
Scott Melker thanks Mike Alfred for his valuable insights, underscoring the significance of informed investment strategies in navigating the volatile cryptocurrency landscape.
Final Thoughts
This episode of "The Wolf Of All Streets" offers a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's potential to surge to unprecedented heights. Through detailed technical analysis, historical context, and strategic investment advice, Scott Melker and Mike Alfred provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the factors driving Bitcoin's bullish prospects. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the crypto space, the discussion offers valuable perspectives on harnessing Bitcoin's growth trajectory while navigating market complexities.