Loading summary
Transcript37 lines
- [00:01]
Host
After a soft CPI, print analysts are saying that Bitcoin is headed to $200,000 by the end of the year. And we love nothing more than a hyperbolic price prediction for a YouTube title. As we plow through some major glitches that we're having right now with streamyard, we're going to talk and everything else that's happening. We've got Yago, of course, as always, on Thursdays, and Alice Liu from Coin Market Cap joining as well with chart guys on the back half. We apologize for the glitch, but we're gonna do our best. Let's go, let's go, let's go. Of course, I take most of the week off because I've got some moving going on and things. And then we come back, finally get Internet and, and we sign on and everybody's literally like a strobe light. We've just got a bunch of flashing guests. Iago now has apparently permanently dis. But Alice and I, we can talk about it. Right, I'm sorry, we bring you on. Finally. We get you back on here.
- [01:07]
Alice Liu
Great to be back.
- [01:09]
Host
Are people not seeing they're saying we. What glitch is what the people in the audience are saying? Maybe we're not glitching to them. Maybe we're just talking to us. We're in the matrix or something.
- [01:19]
Alice Liu
Okay.
- [01:21]
Host
I'm going to go ahead and we'll just start by bringing up your favorite website in the whole world, CoinMarketCap, right here. Right. And we've got Bitcoin at 7255. But the story here is we've still got a lot of very, very high price predictions for the end of the year. So I guess it's worth digging into how you're viewing the market right now and then certainly to dig into the relationship at this point between bitcoin and altcoins, because it's obviously been very different this cycle. So maybe just unpack the, the basics here of what you're looking at.
- [01:56]
Alice Liu
Yeah, of course, as you mentioned at the very beginning, this week is packed with different policies and different signals. So let's just review on what. What is going on. What, what is happening. I was checking the ACME Rate Prediction Market Watch right before we started this live and as we we know that the 18th of June we're going to have the next FOMC meeting. And right now 99.6% of the bets are on 425 to 450 the rate range. So by the look of it, the US Recurring jobless claims jumped to the highest since end of 2021. And the US producer price inflation remained very subtle in May as well, suggesting that this recent TARIF basis have not yet fed through to higher cost for businesses or consumers. So in short, I think the whole market is watching very closely. BTC price is literally like being very sensitive to any of this news outcomes at the end. So for me, as you mentioned, in the short term we're viewing for a moderate to bullish outlook, but in the longer term no one knows.
- [03:14]
Host
Yeah, I think uncertainty still remains the main story. I think you touched on that. So does that sort of explain what's going on with the altcoin market? Because Bitcoin obviously has I think established itself as a legitimate asset. We're talking strategic Bitcoin reserves at this point. We have ETFs, we know that. But I think that when you get to the more speculative side of the market, maybe people are more affected by this uncertainty. They've seen that altcoins haven't performed generally that well and then you have all this general uncertainty and kind of less liquidity. Where are you going to put your money? Maybe you just park it in bitcoin while there's uncertainty.
- [03:52]
Alice Liu
Yeah. So interesting you mentioned about the altcoin performing differently to bitcoin recently. What we are saying the CMC Altcoin Season Index right now is 3,000. We did move out of the darkest orange BTC season and trending towards out season a little bit. But in terms of the out season performance and if we look across the board this week we are seeing a very comeback of DeFi Uniswap e.g. arweave and sky etc. Leading the growth in the defi sector. We're seeing a slight comeback of Ethereum as well. And apart from that is your fartcoins is your spx, it is your virtual, it's hyper liquid, et cetera. So AI large cap name coins are making another comeback. Now what does this general sentiment and BTC first of all like Institute are bullish on bitcoin, especially since after the tariff saga. Right. So we are seeing a large inflow of funds coming into btc. Now for the rest of the alts, what is going to happen here? You see a very strong inflows of Ethereum ETFs as well. Funds coming in, capital coming in. For the past two weeks there has been discussion of a potential Solana ETF coming out in the next six to eight weeks or so. Potentially the alts that are more native to crypto, the Likes of large cap meme coins, the likes of other defi projects, we're seeing a very strong comeback as well. So yes, there is uncertainty in the market, but for the out season I think people have been worried too long and now it's great to see some actions in that space.
- [05:35]
Host
Yeah. And so there's some anecdotal evidence that it's not just retail that's kind of interested again in altcoins. I actually found this story pretty, pretty wild because it doesn't seem to be reflecting this the market, but spot Ethereum ETFs pull in 240 million, beating Bitcoin ETFs 164 million daily inflow. So there's a million reasons people have been buying Bitcoin ETFs from retail institutional carry trades. They have options. But quietly Ethereum has been outperforming even on the institutional side, which I think would surprise a lot of people. We've seen it reflected, I guess in price action that Ethereum has slightly outperformed over the past few days, but I still found this to be a bit of a surprise.
- [06:17]
Alice Liu
Yeah. And to your point, not just there are many ways for institutions to play with BTC and Ethereum, they can put a lot of different trading strategies on structured products to utilize that as well. So not just the mental positive outlook of Ethereum and Altcoins, but also the technical trading perspective as well for them to capture some of these volatility opportunities.
- [06:40]
Host
But I guess the question is, even if Ethereum moves and we start to see interest in, I guess, dinosaur defi, where is the demand going to come from to accommodate all of this supply? So we have the old coin supply, obviously, I'm sure, you know, since you're watching this every day, there's a thousand projects that are just waiting for the perfect time to launch and so they're all going to come on the market at the same time. We have millions of meme coins, so are we going to have to be a little bit more discerning this time or are we going to still be able to throw darts and everything goes up?
- [07:15]
Alice Liu
It's mentioned because even in the meme coin space, things are. Well, there are certain names and projects are pumping, but others that have used to have a very strong community backing, it is not seeing as much action to answer your question. In short, you got to do some analysis on what is going to have more momentum as opposed to just, you know, just go out and buy whatever is trending. So interestingly, I've been using CMC AI to analyze it. We actually on any one page at the bottom of the price chart, you can click on a few of the analysis by CMC AI pulling through all the news feeds, all the Twitter analysis and also CMC's own page view data community as well to give you live analysis on what is going on. So when I was looking at that for some of the large cap memes, it is having a very strong, you can see that very bullish sentiment among the community for it. And to me, for this market cycle, let's say in the next month or so, in the short to medium term, what is going to outperform is likely to be driven by what is more accepted by people outside of crypto. Why? So it's the names that. It's the traditional defi names that are used and loved by people not just in crypto, but people in the web 2.5 space as well. And it's also the large cap meme coins that are known by a larger group, for example, far SPS that I mentioned. They are topping the chart for the past 90 day rolling performance in the altcoins in the altcoin space. So some of this would be gaining a lot more traction from family offices, for example, from investors that are not that native to crypto.
- [09:05]
Host
Yeah, and we're actually inching closer to certain ETFs that will not just be Bitcoin and Ethereum. Of course we had some news with the SEC and Solana course, but I think it's inevitable that we're going to get Solana ETFs, probably XRP ETFs, who knows how far down we'll go. We've seen them filed for Doge and Trump and literally almost everything. But does this basically mean point that you just watch for the next thing that's going to get some sort of legacy market approval and that's where we should be focused.
- [09:40]
Alice Liu
I would say so the strong demand would come from there. But at the same time what we are seeing is because now everyone is eyeing for BTC at about 125,130k I think that is in the shorter term. Right. That is going to be quite a significant price level that would release some of the capital supply in BTC from crypto native side to then release it into the altcoins. So there will still be other new narratives, trending narratives in crypto native communities that people believe in the likes of, you know, decentralized actually going back to the AI agent payments, all of those actual use cases that crypto People are very like, we have sapnites, for example, a lot of those that crypto people are native to and believing once BTC and some of the other large cap hits a certain price level, that is going to release some of the capital and rotate into altcoins into the new trending actual use cases in crypto.
- [10:45]
Host
Right. Interesting. Like speaking, I guess specifically about the ETFs. We all know that if you buy a Bitcoin ETF and you put it in your retirement account, you can't really just get bored and go buy a meme coin. Right. Because your capital is siphoned off, it's sitting in Schwab accounts instead of on binance. Right. So I guess there would be an argument that the ones that have ETFs, you'll be able to move that money around in your retirement account or in your securities account without having to go into an Exchange or into DeFi. But I agree with you. We're going to see the usual kind of bubbles and interest in different sectors of the market. We're definitely getting more real world asset interests at some point. Like you said, dsi, all these things that we saw the first iterations of. That's all. Yeah, yeah. So let's circle back a bit on Bitcoin. The title here was that we could have it going to 200,000. We obviously talked about that. That was based on this article. But we're obviously seeing this massive, I'll even call it the beginnings of a Bitcoin Treasury Company. I think these are the next ICOs of this cycle. These are the altcoins of this cycle. David Bailey from Nakamoto and from Bitcoin magazine literally went on a stream, I think with Thread Guy. I saw a clip of it yesterday and said that he was like, we're investing in all these. There's a lot more money in public markets. These are like the altcoins of the previous cycles. It was a pretty crazy admission. But we have a company called Mercurity. Fintech's going to buy it. 800 million reserve. But I think the bigger story we're seeing these every day is GameStop is now going full strategy. I don't know if you saw this, but not only are they buying bitcoin, they're now raising convertible debt. 1.75 billion to buy Bitcoin does this. How do you view the Bitcoin treasury, you know, phenomenon that's happening?
- [12:30]
Alice Liu
Everyone buying bitcoin, not just in the us it's global as well. Precisely. As you mentioned, they're all starting to hold it into their treasury books. For example the cooler that we talked about cooler CEO Michael Mo mentioned about this strategy of new buying and then the big the blockchain group they have also raised. They are also set to raise 340 million USD for Bitcoin treasury bit my immersions technology. So they are based in. They are I believe they're based in Europe and also it's the Japanese Anap Nap Lightning Capital that is like a fashion brand. They're also trying to add VTC to their Treasury. So we are what we are seeing in Europe, in the States, in, in Asia a lot of companies are starting to add BTC to their Treasuries. For me this is a very good push and at the same time we have a bit of a challenge with the supply because now across the market the miners are selling on average 500 BTC a day. But then when you have such strong demand from the market but the supply is so limited it's going to have a very good push uplift for btc. I think that's one of the reason why people are eyeing on 200k BTC price by the end of the year. For me this is a great indicator because when we looked at BTC as digital gold we talked first of all corporate treasury books secondly sovereign wealth funds. Thirdly it's the country level reserve assets. So all of this are seem to be moving at the right direction for BTC to have a very good strong end of the year target. But there has also been a few arguments linked to now BTC's correlation with traditional markets and how that could potentially have systemic risk not just to BTC to market but also the pressure of BTC in case something goes wrong. The systemic risk of this to the traditional financial market as well.
- [14:40]
Host
Yeah, so we talked about Bitcoin and altcoins of course but the other biggest story and I think it will remain for a very long time has to be coins. Right. So we're about to get stablecoin legislation. Genius. Stablecoin bill passes key vote advances to US Senate this should be voted on by Monday if not sooner apparently. And all indications are that we are definitely going to get some sort of stable bill at least passing through the Senate. And you have even Bessette the Treasury Secretary saying US stablecoin market could exceed 2 trillion projection by end of 2028. I mean if somebody in the world can make that happen it's going to be the Secretary of the Treasury. And we're also seeing now a bunch of private stable coins proposed. Bank of America has said that they're absolutely working on a stable coin right now. We had seen that before but they confirmed that's happening and of course we have even meta talking about a renewed stablecoin ambition Force is going to triggered the Elizabeth Warrens and such who were there for the Libra hearings which went obviously terrible. But maybe talk about the state of stable coins right now, how important this is especially to get legislation.
- [15:44]
Alice Liu
Yeah, sure. The total for fiat backed stable coins are around 220 billion USD and that is a to that has grown quite a lot for the past three months or so. We're seeing the trajectory here and especially with Circle IPO that draw a lot of attention to like Web2 people to say oh wow, what is this? What is important for? I think what we really achieved with Circle IPO for stablecoin and crypto market is the golden moment. You, you need a, a catalyst like this to trigger people in non crypto space to look at this be like oh wow, so what does circle do? What is stablecoin? How can we use this and integr into more use cases globally in payments, in transactions etc. So what we're seeing is a very strong push of stablecoins not just the likes of traditional ones like tether like USDC etc. But also for the USD one. And we're seeing a lot of cross chain activities going on to bridge stablecoins across different chains. For me there are a few challenges, there are a few opportunities of course but one of the challenges stablecoins is a great idea. It's something that crypto blockchain produce that can be beneficial to non crypto people. But if we look at some of the settlements etc, for example the G10 countries and their the current way they use cross border payments etc, there has been a very mature framework for that to happen. So for me thinking the challenge is massive to push banks and the global cross border payment systems to adopt more stablecoins. So I think stablecoin, yes it's growing within our small world of crypto. Outside of it there are still a lot of challenges and to break since.
- [17:48]
Host
We'Re in the glitch here as a kind of final thoughts, what are you most excited about and specifically what are you building watching at CoinMarketCap that we can look forward to in the future?
- [17:59]
Alice Liu
Yeah, so number one thing is AI tool that I mentioned nowadays is my best friend because if I say any I go onto the trending list and see oh whatever price is Pumping. I then go to the project and click on the AI analysis behind the pricing chart. It helps me understand wow, what is going on. For example, this week Defi is making a comeback and I go on to Uniswap or go onto AAVE and click on it and it gives me quite decent analysis. So that is one thing I find quite beneficial to my own research those days. I'm excited about Defi this week. I'm excited about the potential Solana XRP ETFs, but also just looking at some of the meme coin trends moving from Solana onto BNB and onto base layer as well.
- [18:49]
Host
Really, really interesting. Thank you so much, Alice, for suffering through this with us. Iago, he just bailed. He was like, I can't do it.
- [18:56]
Alice Liu
It.
- [18:58]
Host
We're in the bat. We were all behind stage, like, why are we flashing the audio? Also bad. But we decided that we would just push through it for all of you guys. So thank you so much, Alice. We'll have you back when everything's actually working and everybody can give you a follow down below. We love what you do.
- [19:14]
Alice Liu
Great to be back. Thank you so much.
- [19:15]
Host
Thanks, Alice. All right, guys, we. I obviously missed yesterday. I don't know if you watched the other shows this week. Macro Monday was awesome with Noel. She's, you know, keeps everybody in line. Much better, I think, than I do. And then of course Andrew and Dave and the team on Tuesday with Josh Frank. And then yesterday we published my John Deaton interview from Vegas, which I definitely suggest you give a listen to. But usually on Wednesdays we tell you about Aptos. We were not able to do that yesterday. So very quickly, obviously you know that they've been a long time sponsor here and they are absolutely crushing it. By far the fastest. As you can see that white line down on the bottom there for the block times for Aptos, absolutely crushing, especially base, but even crushing Arbitrum, which are the fastest chains, right? We've talked about Aptos building basically the global trading engine, which means being faster, cheaper and more secure than the competition by many, many multiples. And that's what they're achieving right now, as you can see. Also for bitcoin trading itself, there's now 4 million in Bitcoin on Aptos. ABT, CSBTC, XBTC. This is a huge part of the market now, especially as bitcoin gains more sort of regulatory approval and everything is that people want to earn yields for better or for worse on bitcoin. They're going into defi by wrapping to do that. This is also in partnership with my good friends at OkX. So if you're looking to do that, Aptos is a great place to do it. And now, Dan, we're going to bring you on a little earlier than usual. You are also in the glitch and painted in our pregame glitching. So thank you for sticking around as well. Let's see if we can get through it here. What are you looking for on Bitcoin? We've also obviously got a bit of a dip here. Looks like we could be forming a lower high.
- [20:59]
Dan
Yeah. With key resistance. The only resistance up at the all time high pretty much 111 to 112. We rejected from that. We were also extended. You know, we came straight off the low of consolidation. And myself, I was a patient bull looking for a weekly higher low and that left me in the dust. I couldn't add to my pin. So now I'm watching for a spot to do so. And what the bulls want to see is ideally this 106,000 range, which was support after the initial all time high, then resistance. The bulls want to hold this as support. And we're getting there right now. Bit of relative weakness. You know, we just had a little short term bounce up with the job numbers and the Nasdaq. We're back to lower lows while the NASDAQ is holding that little bounce right now. So keeping an eye on that relative weakness. But this is the spot the bulls. Because if we don't hold 106, then that means, you know, we can just go sideways for a long time. If we hold 106, we can keep that all time high resistance in play, you know, as we head into next week. So pretty important support test here over the next day or two and where the bulls want to play some defense.
- [22:02]
Host
If we lose that level, would you be looking to make sure that we make a higher low and don't put in a lower low like break down below that recent hundred because, you know, the lower high isn't really confirmed unless we put in a lower low. Right. It's just consolidation for now.
- [22:17]
Dan
Yeah, I mean it, it would be, I would look for initially to hold a higher low compared to where we came from. But again, that to me just expands the timeline. And so much of trading is, you know, watching, tightening, constricting ranges and anticipating the breaks coming soon. And so if we lose it, for me that just extends the timeline. It says, okay, we can trade between 100 and 112 for another couple of weeks. Obviously, if we break 100 next we would be looking at the 90s. Let's see that previous level that was key was back here, back this one here in the 93, 95 range. So that's where we would be looking. Obviously it's ideal if The Bulls hold 100,000 because if 100,000 is support it's a weekly bull flag. And so now it's just do we trade sideways for a while or can we hold 106, bounce back up towards 108 and you know, just be continue talking about the all time high resistance. So again the next two days are going to be pretty important, this defense test.
- [23:17]
Host
Yeah, I agree. So what else are you watching as this is happening? I mean markets are opening in a minute, right. So I haven't even looked at futures or what pre market was trading. But as far as this is gonna look similar.
- [23:28]
Dan
Yeah, as far as Nasdaq. I mean again we're just keeping an eye on it because ideally we want it to be strong and it's a daily uptake uptrend. Still it could be a rising wedge because you know, each full break is lacking follow through. It's been a bit boring recently but my mindset has been I'm bullish if we're just forming daily higher lows and we just keep doing that. And so you know, we're knocking on the door of all time high. Obviously bitcoin bulls would like to see the NASDAQ at all time highs because that's a vote of confidence in strength. And so we're either going to see, you know, in the next few days we're either going to confirm this rising wedge weekly consolidation or we're heading up to all time highs. And I've been seeing a lot of rising wedges break bullish in this market environment. So that's a good sign. But again, always keeping an eye on the broader market. Of course Ethereum's getting some attention here. Eth with the level. This is the most important level for the last few years where back when we were up at 4000 this was holding. The zone is essentially 2790 to 2860. It held as support, support, resistance, resistance, resistance and now it's back to resistance. So we're battling this level. And you know, you and I have talked over the years so many times about this Eth BTC chart and it's trying to do something different where so many times it'll get a big green week, it'll try and go sideways. Can we get a leg up? No, we Roll over. So there's our big green week. Here's our sideways. If we get another leg up, we'll be able to say this is different for the first time in years. And so we're knocking on the door just like the USD pairing is knocking on a key resistance door. This, this top here. We really want to see another leg up over this. And you know, we're getting a lot of attention recently and rightfully so. And again, for altcoins in general. Definitely want to see the. The leader Eth get this leg up. So a key resistance battle here as well. I lost your audio.
- [25:31]
Host
We're in the glitch, man. What else are you. What else are you watching other than that?
- [25:36]
Dan
Still keeping an eye on some altcoins. You know, QNT has had. It's very similar to eat in the sense that, you know, look at this range. Back here it was support resistance resistance and here it is resistance again. So I've been watching this name just because it's been in a daily uptrend. We didn't start weekly consolidation when 99.9% altcoins did. But we also have to keep in mind that the majority of coins, you know, we were just at multiple week lows. I'm just going to pull up, you know, Cardano as an example. But so many names are doing this. We were just at multiple week lows. We had a nice bounce. Absolutely. You've got to confirm the daily uptrend if we're going to trust that things are shifting. And that's where the majority of altcoins are right now. Still in prove it mode. Okay, the bounce was nice, but we need that higher low and higher high for us to say, okay, things are shifting. And then of course, the dominance chart, you know, we want to see rollover head back to where we recently came from. So there's extra attention on the altcoin space whenever Eth is a lead bull, as and rightfully so. And so again, it's just like this, this setup of where we're at right now. Okay, we're paying some extra. And now is this. Is this time to go for alts. And you know, I definitely am not the kind of trader that's been jumping the gun. This is it, this is it, this is it. I would rather be. I'd rather be a little late and be on the right side of momentum versus constantly false start.
- [26:59]
Host
So if we get a true alt season, if the first 25, it's not going to matter at all. I'm not saying we Will, but. Right, that's fine.
- [27:06]
Dan
I agree. So last week we were talking about potential rotation into crypto miners from stocks. Again back in April and May was MSTR and coin. Coin with the S&P 500 inclusion, they led the way very clearly. And now into June we were watching for rotation into Riot and some of these other miners and it did follow through. We got some, you know, if you those comparison charts or look at Riot divided by MSTR and we can see that over, you know, we're hitting two month highs. So this is the strongest that Riot has been comparative to MSTR in two months. So that thesis is still developing and we're getting confirmation that that is what is taking place. And so now it's just a question of how long does that last. You know, these relationships come and go and so we're paying attention right now. We just started daily consolidation with markets opening, but there's tons of space for a higher low. And if you are a Riot bull, you want to see again, like we want bitcoin to hold the 106 backtest. You want Riot to hold this previous resistance in the mid $9 range. You want that to hold a support if this is going to continue progressing. So again, focus in the stock world for crypto has shifted from MSTR towards these miners a bit recently and it's going to remain that way as long as we see this little shift.
- [28:25]
Host
Yeah, that makes perfect sense. We're super glitching. So everybody give Dan a follow chart guys, of course. And hopefully we'll be able to run it back with higher quality in the future. So we'll, we'll see what happens with Streamyard here. Dan, thank you for plowing through it with us. Much appreciated.
- [28:41]
Dan
Yep, see you next time.
- [28:42]
Host
All right guys, see you next time. Let's go. Let's do.