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- [00:01]
Scott
Bitcoin is headed to $200,000 and there is an Ethereum demand shock that will send it higher. Not my words, but those of today's amazing guest, Matt Hogan. We're going to talk about that. Everything happening at Bitwise and of course everything happening in markets and the news with myself, Matt and Iago of course, Shark guys on the back half to break down the charts and what's happening in the markets. Let's go, let'. Everybody loves big price predictions, but I think people are actually starting to believe them. We've got Matt and Iago here. I mean Matt, you know you're always making, you're like Mr. Media, like a spokesperson for, for crypto at this point. But first of all, I asked Chat GPT, I asked Rock. Well, I asked Matt Hogan. He said Bitcoin to 200k by the end of 2025. Here you are in Coin Telegraph. Bitcoin supply crunch boost confidence in 200k targets for 2025 bit yc cio I don't know if I should ask you about the target or the fact that Bitwise is now a pudgy penguin.
- [01:15]
Matt Hogan
Well, there is that. I mean that's an important statement about the future of where we're going about alt season. It's a good looking penguin too. I mean very.
- [01:24]
Scott
I mean that is a very distinguished.
- [01:26]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, that's right.
- [01:27]
Scott
If you're going to be a penguin, you want to be this penguin.
- [01:30]
Matt Hogan
Yep. The monocle, the bow tie, the bitcoin pin, it's got it all going on. They did, they did, they did a good job. You know, you got to put your neck out there and make predictions. We try to make ours measurable. A bit wise. That's one of the things, it's a little scary, but I do have a high degree of confidence we're going there. There is this supply demand shock in both Bitcoin and Ethereum and I didn't study that much economics, but I know enough that when demand is 5 to 10x supply, the price tends to go up. And I think that's just the story in crypto right now.
- [02:05]
Scott
Yeah, I agree with you. Obviously this is one of those times where bitcoin went up and you didn't have to figure out what was happening in the macro or have a long conversation about inflation and tariffs. You just could go, look, these Bitcoin treasury companies and Saylor are buying this stuff a billion at a time. And that's what's happening with Ethereum too.
- [02:24]
Matt Hogan
Right?
- [02:24]
Scott
I don't even actually, I Haven't tracked whether Ethereum treasury companies are actively buying yet or whether it's just a whole bunch of announcements and they're waiting to convert. But clearly the idea that they are has sent these things flying. I mean, Tom Lee's token went up 3,800% in five days on the idea that they were going to buy Ethereum. And I'm pretty confident Ethereum is never going up 3,800%.
- [02:46]
Matt Hogan
I think they were betting that Tom Lee would go on CNBC and say Ethereum is going up 3,800%. Which is, which is probably true. I mean, look, you've seen Ethereum price targets take off. It was hard to find someone who's bullish on Ethereum a few weeks ago. Yes, you were credit. I was, yes.
- [03:05]
Scott
Even Yago, you know, Iago.
- [03:07]
Matt Hogan
There you go. So the few, the proud. But we saw Arthur Hayes come out with $10,000 by the end of the year. Earlier this week, there is a demand shock. I mean, I wrote about this on Twitter. Since May 15, companies and ETFs have bought 32x the new supply of Ethereum I like. We love to tie ourselves in knots. Is Ethereum driven by discounted cash flow? Is it a store of value? None of that matters if these two forces are buying 32 times the supply. So I think it's as simple as that. I think it's going to continue. You know, we've done 4.4 billion in inflows into ETH ETFs this month. Yeah, there's my Ethereum demand shock.
- [03:48]
Scott
Just want people to see it there.
- [03:49]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, again, again, I, I people over complicate these things. You can tie yourselves a knot. There's the chart. Yes. Look at what happened to Ethereum ETF flows. They were basically nowhere until May 15th. And now it's just a building crescendo we've done every day. But one has been inflows this month. The one day, July 2, we had $1.9 million flow out. Effectively nothing. Yeah, right. We've done a billion dollars in the last three days. This is accelerating and I hear it in my meetings. Everyone wants to talk about stable coins, everyone wants to talk about tokenization, and that leads them to wanting some Ethereum alongside their Bitcoin. So this is going to ramp to the end of the year. I'm really bullish on Eth.
- [04:32]
Scott
Yago, I would love your thoughts on this. Obviously, the Bitcoin versus eth. We've had multiple days now where Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin by far in ETFs. We actually have days where Ethereum is doing almost a half a billion and Ethereum and Bitcoin's having outflows.
- [04:48]
Iago
Yeah, I, I think, I don't know to explain sort of the outflows of the, of the Bitcoin etf. I would suspect it may be two things. One is there is a degree of profit taking, right? We, we, we've, we've introduced a new audience. They're not used to, they're not used.
- [05:08]
Matt Hogan
To too.
- [05:11]
Iago
Over the couple of months. So you know, they see it and they take, they take profits. And then the, the, the second thing is I think there is a degree of rotation within the Bitcoin space from ETF to Treasury company. People are looking for greater potential upside. There's obviously much higher volatility. These treasury companies represent a beta play on Bitcoin and so that's attractive.
- [05:39]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, I really agree with that. Iago. Scott, you've been talking about alt season in tradfi for a while and I think that's exactly right. People made a ton of money on these Bitcoin ETFs. Right? 36.
- [05:51]
Scott
And circle.
- [05:52]
Matt Hogan
And circle. Well, circle was the first alt season. But I agree it goes from there. They made all this money, all this money flowed into bitcoin. The price went up, you know, 140%. And what are they going to do? They're going to rotate into like Kellogg's. No, they're going to rotate into a circle and ETH and Treasury companies and now Eth treasury companies and now Solana treasury companies. Joe McCann's out there raising a salon. You know, treasury had to be.
- [06:23]
Scott
I got to get Joe on.
- [06:24]
Matt Hogan
It's gonna go all the way, right? That's what it's alt season in tradfi for sure.
- [06:29]
Scott
So I want to show you something because this is supported, right? I mean you don't have to look further than Cathie Wood, right? And she's literally rotating like selling certain crypto related stocks. We saw she had sold some coinbase. She actually had sold some of her own etf, which freaks people out. But it's just rebalancing in the funds. It's not like that's natural. But to buy BM&R. This is Tom Lee's treasury company. So I mean this is, we're not talking about some vague idea that might be happening. You can actually see this transparently and this is the first time in crypto you can see transparently exactly what's happening because These regulated entities have to report.
- [07:06]
Matt Hogan
That is exactly right. If I didn't have compliance requirements, I'd be rolling down the hot ball of money too in the pa. So Kathy's doing exactly what she should do. Of course these treasury companies are going to do well. They're going to trade to multiples of navigation. That's what's going on in the market right now. And I don't think we've reached the end of that. So we're going to see this continue. I think it's going to be even stronger in the fall. And this story is not over yet.
- [07:32]
Iago
Oh, definitely not. I mean we're starting to see the first treasury company focused investment funds raising capital. The first one I think is probably Pantera who just, I hope I'm not revealing non publicly first. They've just, they, they've.
- [07:49]
Scott
You mean they're raising a fund to invest specifically in treasury companies?
- [07:52]
Iago
They've already raised it, it's closed and they're now already raising a second.
- [07:56]
Scott
Well, that's what Nakamoto is doing. Right. I mean that's the David, the David Bailey model as they raised a bunch of money. They're buying bitcoin, but then they are publicly investing in companies that will buy bitcoin. Right.
- [08:08]
Iago
So we're starting to see dedicated capital specifically to this play. And so we're very, it's remarkable, but we're actually in the early innings, I think.
- [08:17]
Matt Hogan
I agree with that and I know that's counter to the media narrative which feels like we're peak bubble. We're, you know, March 2000 in the Internet, but we're not, we're 1998. Like people are still just getting excited. The amount of flow that comes through my inbox is incredible. And if you're, I'd add, if you're bullish about crypto generically, why would you think this trend stops? If I think bitcoin is going to $200,000, do I think this treasury trend increases or decreases? It's almost like a self reinforcing loop until it gets overblown. And I don't think we're there yet.
- [08:53]
Scott
You would have to think that this cycle's top is in to think that we're at the end of the treasury bubble. To your point, just know those things can't. They have to be aligned. Right. I want to ask you about another kind of story that we've seen. Obviously Trump said that he wants to open investment accounts, IRAs and Roths and 401ks to allow crypto. Right. So crypto's wealth pitch grows on tax trades as 401k push builds. Once again, we just have so much news that this didn't seem to get much attention. But A self directed IRAs are totally screwed, right? All these IRA companies that have pitched you can buy Bitcoin and Ethereum directly and hold your keys. You're going to literally apparently be able to do that in your normal IRAs. I privately have had conversation with a few of the bigger platforms and they think this is coming in months and are building for it and they should. How huge is this? If all of the retirement accounts are open and you can start. I mean this means for people listening, like if you had a Roth IRA with 100 grand in it that you saved or whatever, you can trade Bitcoin and Ethereum till the end of time, tax free with that money.
- [10:02]
Matt Hogan
That is right, yes. And it's a long, it's a long duration asset. It's a great retirement asset because it has huge upside and it has long time frames. Right. Why wouldn't you add it at some level? I think the thing for people to think about what this means for the market, there are two things it means one obviously is number go up because it's $8 trillion or something starting to gain exposure to Bitcoin. But the other is volume go down. Because the thing about these retirement accounts is, is like I invest, I don't know, in the S&P 500, in my 401k without thinking about it every two weeks. I don't even, I don't even really.
- [10:39]
Iago
You don't need. It's an automated system, it's effectively a government mandated dca.
- [10:46]
Matt Hogan
That is exactly right. And so you're gonna have.
- [10:48]
Scott
Nobody manages these things. They said it once and they forget about it.
- [10:51]
Matt Hogan
Exactly, forget it. And there's going to be like two and a half percent Bitcoin and then every week or every two weeks, 20 million Americans are going to invest two and a half percent of their wealth into Bitcoin and that's going to crush the volume. Just like we've seen in the equity market. We've crushed the volume, we've crushed pullbacks. Part of that is this retirement effect and that's now coming to crypto and it's really going to change the shape of the asset.
- [11:18]
Scott
Okay, so Iago, in context of everything being built, these insane announcements every single day from institutions, what does that mean for all of the projects like yourself that you're working with to build things on Bitcoin?
- [11:34]
Iago
Well, I think it has two impacts. First of all, obviously as bitcoin, its market cap grows, its ability to act as an engine for a bitcoin native economy grows with it. And as the type of investor who comes in changes, we're going to start to see people who are looking for more actively managed ways of, of growing their btc, utilizing their BTC as collateral and, and growing bitcoin yield. So, so one impact is just a natural increase in the scope and possibilities of the market. But the second impact is more indirect but possibly more powerful, which is that there's a very powerful trickle down effect that we're already starting to see. The huge capital accumulation that occurred in Bitcoin has already started trickling down to Ethereum. As we start seeing treasury companies, you know, for Seoul, for Tao, for Hype, those, the impact even for people who are nowhere near treasury companies, right, the assets that they hold increase in value and then those funds increasingly flow through the, you know, the longer tail of assets. And so this effectively lifts all boats. And the tighter you are tied to one of these ecosystems that is, is growing and by far the largest is Bitcoin, the more of this trickle down flows into that specific ecosystem.
- [13:13]
Scott
Well, it's interesting because we're bringing tradfi or bitcoin to tradfi, I should say, right? So you're going to be able, we saw Schwab make their announcement that you're going to get Bitcoin and spot and eth trading and that you're going to be able to use that as part of your portfolio for lending. Then JP Morgan made the same announcement. But on the flip side, we can't forget that you're bringing kind of tradfi to Bitcoin, which is that all the things you can do there, you don't need to go to JP Morgan and Charles Schwab where literally no bitcoiner wants to be real bitcoiner and you can do it on bitcoin, right?
- [13:46]
Iago
Yeah, absolutely. I think, look, we've, we've, we're already used to this sort of. You've got the centralized CEFI world, you've got the decentralized defi world. And because money is fungible, these are effectively two different pools of capital that have merged into a single pool of capital. And now we actually have three buckets, right? So we have DeFi, we have CeFi and we have tradfi. So there's a huge new pool of capital. But money will slosh. Any dislocations that arise between these two will be Arbed away. And I think what we're starting to see is more and more of the emergence of a blurring of the lines between these three pieces. The exchanges have all launched their own chains or dexes. There's a tokenization of equities. We've got a stunkinization of tokens in the form of ETPs, ETFs, and these treasury companies. And so, very rapidly, just over the last year, we're starting to see this wall, this Berlin Wall that stood between the 900 trillion tradfi market and the 2 trillion bucket of crypto is dissolving. The Berlin Wall has fallen and people are running just like they did in Germany in one direction. Right. So it's.
- [15:19]
Scott
Some of the original bitcoiners are running out entirely.
- [15:22]
Iago
Yeah. But they've had West Germans went into East Germany to buy assets. East Germans ran into West Germany in order to have a life. And so. And so we're seeing the same. The same thing.
- [15:35]
Scott
So, Matt, interesting segue. Obviously, in the place where you operate, you've been deeply in crypto for a long time, but you're dealing with all the tradfi rules. And you're really at the intersection of what we're discussing kind of on the other side. Yago's on one side building it, you're on the other side incorporating it into tradfi hasn't always been that easy. Right. As much as we've had these incredible stories of ETF launches and deregulation, well, you guys just had a rough one, seemingly from the outside. SEC hits pause on Bitwise ETF offering broad crypto exposure. So we've been long been talking about how the future of investing in crypto, because it's the present of investing in everything is indexing.
- [16:14]
Matt Hogan
Right.
- [16:15]
Scott
And so you guys, we had this huge news story, we all shared that the Bitwise 10 crypto index fund was going to be converted to an etf. You would add broad exposure to the top assets in crypto and an etf. Holy crap. This is amazing. And then all of a sudden, the SEC made us all look dumb because we reported what was factual news, and then they put an indefinite pause. What is that?
- [16:38]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, it was like. It was the greatest 42 seconds of my life. Scott. We've been working to create this ETF since 2017, and it won approval at the staff level of the sec. And then there is this weird thing in the SEC where a single commissioner can effectively pocket veto a staff decision. They can just raise their hand and say, we're going to consider this further at the commissioner level, at the five person commissioner level. And there's no process that I'm aware of and I've been ETFs for 15 years before Bitwise to force them to make a decision. So it just goes into this never never land. Now I'm hopeful that we'll get out of this never never land by the end of the year. I'm hope I know. Look, I've been worn down over the years, Scott. I'm used to it. I'm hopeful that what the. The rationale is. The SEC is working on what's called generic listing standards, which would mean you don't just launch one crypto etp, you can launch it as on any asset as long as it fits a series of characteristics. I'm hopeful that they're waiting to get those generic listing standards to allow our index to list. But the crazy thing about it is we just don't know. It's like someone just told you no and you ask why and they're like.
- [18:00]
Scott
That'S like the last four years.
- [18:02]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, yeah. It's a little bit, it's a little bit of a flashback. So it's disappointing. But we'll get there. I'm confident.
- [18:08]
Scott
Do you know which commissioner, like, do you know who did it?
- [18:12]
Matt Hogan
No. I have two theories. I mean there's Caroline Crenshaw, who is the.
- [18:17]
Scott
Is still there.
- [18:18]
Matt Hogan
She's still there and she's, she's still waving the flag for Gary and. But on the other hand, maybe, maybe it's the pro crypto commissioners who are looking at this generic listing standards.
- [18:32]
Scott
Oh, so they just don't want to push something through until like why even preempt their own efforts on the standard? Yeah.
- [18:40]
Matt Hogan
If you're gonna have, I mean the way that, the way the product was designed, it was going to be mostly bitcoin and E, which are already okay. And then in ETFs you can have a sleeve of other stuff and the other stuff was the other assets. But you know, I try to, I try to be giving and put myself in their seat. Maybe they want those other assets to fit these generic listing standards. We'll find out, I guess. I don't know. We're in, we're in the dark, same as you, and had the same emotional up and down roller coaster.
- [19:09]
Scott
Way, way more, way more of a roller coaster than the rest of us suffered simply reading it. So I sympathize. But Iago, isn't this the whole reason? Like we build a bunch of things and don't rely on the sec. It's pretty weird. Bruce Fenton. Oh my God. I had Bruce Fenton on Crypto Town hall yesterday. He. I know he clipped it somewhere. He went on a five minute tirade about like, you know, how he does the nanny state and the holding us at hostage with guns and the regulators and stuff. But it was pretty compelling because he was really pissed off about how, I guess, dependent bitcoiners have become on Wall street and the government.
- [19:45]
Iago
Absolutely. I mean we talk about, we use these vague terms, you know, uncensorable, immutable rules without rulers. But this is a concrete example, right? The fact that there are no rules. There are arbitrary decisions being made for reasons that we don't understand. There's no appeals system. Right. That is effectively a form of malfeasance at best, corruption at its worst. And what bitcoin and what crypto offer done. Right, is the fact that for the first time in human history, people really are equal before the law. Right. The law being bitcoin consensus. There are no arbitrary decisions. And the way decisions are made are based on rules and transparency.
- [20:35]
Scott
Yeah, imagine. But it was supposed to be so much better now. Yeah, but to be fair, Matt, this is a bit of an outlier. Like we have generally had pretty steady.
- [20:45]
Dan
It's.
- [20:47]
Matt Hogan
But, but what Yaga said, you know, appeals to me. Look, the network's been running for 15 years, processed $125 trillion of transactions with no failures or incorrect settlements. This is incredible, right? It's incredible. And people who have participated have done well, and people who have ignored it have not. That seems, that seems pretty fair to me.
- [21:10]
Scott
What are you gonna say, Yago?
- [21:12]
Iago
Look, just because the system happens to make arbitrary decisions in your favor today doesn't mean it's going to make arbitrary decisions in your favor tomorrow. And that's the problem with a system where rules are not based on, on, on, on a rule based order or transparency. And you know, like, unfortunately we're having this conversation with Matt, like, it, it was worse than that. The answer was yes and then it was no.
- [21:33]
Scott
So yeah, to me there's a, it's, it's interesting because like, that's why you build what you're building, so you don't have to deal with this. But on the complete flip side, Matt, it's why everybody who actually wants Wall street and, and the government involved is pushing so hard for clear legislation. So that the next administration can't just say that executive order didn't exist or Gary Gensler comes back as the head of the sec. And just like they erased everything he did, everything these commissioners get done gets erased. So it's like you can see both sides. One side is opt out entirely, the other side is, well, if we're going to be here, we need rules.
- [22:12]
Matt Hogan
Yeah. And I think both are probably right. I think both are probably right. Right. For me to bring the tradfi audience into crypto more and more, we need these rules. Right. We've seen that with the bitcoin etf. Right. Just look at the flows. It definitely helped. But that doesn't mean that what we're building on the actually decentralized side, that's the end game. Right. Like we're the interstitial. I recognize that as an asset manager. Right. There's an irony to building a bitcoin ETF and there is a time delimited nature to which I think that should be valuable. I think it's probably a few decades. Right. Plenty of time for me to build a valuable business. But eventually that's not the solution. Eventually the solution is, is direct, it's self sovereign, it's decentralized. Right. This is, I'm aware that this is a bridge, valuable bridge, great bridge. But eventually we'll get to the other side.
- [23:06]
Scott
Yeah. I wonder when all the things Iago's building that are happening on that side get somehow put into tradfi wrappers. Because I mean we're already seeing the application for staking ETFs. Right. Everybody wants Ethereum staking. The companies are already filing for those. So that is a little bit of, hey, we're going to put defi inside this tradfi wrapper. So when do all the things that are being built, Yago, you work with someone and they build something that has yield and all these things and that goes into an ETF wrapper as a way to earn. It's kind of like a Treasury company, right. To beat in an ETF wrapper to beat Bitcoin or whatever it is. Yeah.
- [23:48]
Iago
It might be very close. It might be very close indeed.
- [23:53]
Matt Hogan
We're going to chat afterwards. I would add that, Scott, probably the most common request we get from people who want to be bitwise customers is I have a ton of bitcoin. How do I generate yield and income with it? That's the most common request. We talk about altcoins all the time. We talk about pangu filings, but bitcoin is the biggest chunk of the economy and there are a lot of people who have a lot of wealth in that space and they want to do stuff with it. So we do it in SMAs, which are like a customized tradfi wrapper. And some people are comfortable with that, and then some people want to go direct and are more comfortable direct. But it is a huge and growing market.
- [24:35]
Scott
What does that look like as an sma? Like, you create basically a product or a strategy and they can buy into that specific strategy that you have, like blended an ETH ETF and a Bitcoin ETF. Is that what it is? Like 80% Bitcoin, 20% ETH? And you create that product and they buy directly into that instead of having to do the individual steps.
- [24:55]
Matt Hogan
Or you come to me and you say, I have $50 million in Bitcoin. I want to generate a 5% yield. And we bring in your bitcoin and do option overlays or those sorts of strategies. It's bespoke service. The ETF is a generic wrapper. It's a beautiful wrapper. You can buy the same product as the Abu Dhabi Sovereign wealth fund. That's such a gift to the world. But for people with large positions, asset managers will develop customized strategies one on one for them.
- [25:26]
Scott
That's pretty cool.
- [25:27]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, yeah, it's fun. Fun.
- [25:29]
Scott
Yeah. I, I honestly, I had no idea you guys were doing that. But that makes perfect sense. But. And I know that, like, you know, obviously the active management is a huge part of what's coming in the future. Yaga. We always talk about those guys with 50 million or 500 million or a billion. They all seem very confused right now.
- [25:47]
Iago
I don't know. I think, look, I mean, some people who have large bitcoin holdings have never actually had to manage money in any way, have no experience with it. Many of them are either already sophisticated or rapidly becoming pretty sophisticated.
- [26:08]
Scott
Yeah. I talked to Rick Edelman this week, which will come out on Sunday, who's like the kind of the Michael Jordan of independent advisors. And I asked him kind of that question. I was like, what do all these people do? He said, get an advisor. Which is like the last thing they all want to hear. Right. But if you want to actually diversify and figure out what to do with all of this, you need someone who's a professional to help you understand the tax benefits to doing different things and stuff. Or you can just send your 80,000 Bitcoin to Galaxy and dump it on the open market, which somewhere did last week. Which. Call somebody, man. I'm sure there had to be a better way to do that, like call our good friend Bill Barheit and take a Loan man. I don't know, but it seems like that would have been. Maybe the guy's in a tax advantage jurisdiction or something. Oh, crap, it's 9:30. Matt Iago, thank you guys so much. Matt, we're going to get Updates on the 10 because I think the crypto 10, this was the product we've all been waiting for. I really think that that was kind of like a really huge unlock.
- [27:06]
Matt Hogan
I appreciate that. We're excited to get it out. We're going to keep working till we do, so wish us luck.
- [27:12]
Scott
Awesome. I'll go. Thank you, man. As always, every week. And we're going to move on to Mr. Dan. Thank you guys. See you soon.
- [27:19]
Matt Hogan
Thanks, everyone.
- [27:21]
Scott
All right, now we can unpack what's actually happened in the market. Dan, I haven't even looked at the charts today. Like I have not even had time, time to take a peek. But sentiment seems all of a sudden bad. When I read Twitter for a minute, like all coins were dead or something. I don't think that's the case.
- [27:35]
Dan
But yeah, game over. We're pack it up. No, we got bitcoin still sideways. And again, we've talked many times about how sideways. There's nothing wrong with that. We had the dominance see a bounce, and the only two ways the dominance is going to bounce is if bitcoin breaks out and leads alts or if alts are weaker than bitcoin. And we had a little bit of both. But yesterday it was most clearly bitcoin pulled back a bit but stayed mostly sideways. And while that was happening, the alts pulled back real hard. But it's important to remember that that has to happen. If you're going to run up 50% over the span of a week, you're going to pull back 20% fairly easily. And it's very important to distinguish different. My general trading as a professional trader day in and day out, I have my base hit mode, which is the vast majority of the time where I'm more conservative and I'm just going for my small wins. And in that mode, I don't want drawdowns. I want my account to be higher than yesterday. That's my goal. And then you have these euphoric environments. And for anybody that's trying for a big win or to, you know, level up with their accounts, you have to expose yourself to drawdowns. That's a part of it. And, you know, just an example. 2017, I was going for 100% gain as my goal. It ended up being, you know, 4,000% in seven months. But there were periods there where, you know, I clicked, I misclicked and I made a mistake and I, I went to dinner and I came back and I was down 200% of what my starting capital was. And normally you think that is a disaster, but when you compare it to, you know, it's much easier to sit through those drawdowns when it's just your profit that's fluctuating. If you're going, you know, deep red, it's a lot more stressful. But again, it's part of the process and we have to set daily higher lows if we're going to continue uptrends. And so the bulls are hoping that the lows from yesterday or early this morning are those daily higher lows. The bull still have some proving to do, but we're still just waiting for bitcoin to give us direction. It might take until next week considering, you know, weekends are generally slow, but for Bitcoin it's115.7 is the most important support for me and resistance is 121 and then the all time high 123s. And we're not going to get any information until one of those levels breaks. Otherwise it's just, you know, is anything going on? Do I have any new information? No. And we haven't gotten any new information on bitcoin in the last week.
- [29:56]
Scott
Yeah, I hadn't even pulled up a dominance chart. It's actually pretty interesting here because it's like right at that may low kind of as resistance. I don't know, maybe I could. You could see it there. That kind of wick. Yeah, right down there.
- [30:12]
Dan
Yeah. I mean, in an ideal world, again for the bulls, you want to see, if you're an altcoin bull, you want to see a daily lower high set here. And the reason that that daily lower high is being set is because altcoins are setting their daily higher low and going up more than bitcoin. And again, just to pull up some of these altcoins, xrp, we broke short term support. I mean, we had a higher low every day almost for two weeks. There was one tiny day in there. But again, the best case for the bulls is set that daily higher low, get a bounce going and wouldn't be surprised to do something like that and tighten up a bit. But again, bulls definitely want to hold that low that we just hit at this point. And there's a number of altcoins that are holding on a bit better. Like CRV has a base of Support didn't pull back nearly as much. ENS is another one, thanks to its relationship with eth, but you know, holding sideways. So there's a couple that are stronger. But you know, overall that low needs to be set and you just want to see one time frame at a time. You want to see bulls confirm an hourly uptrend, then you zoom out to the four hour. You want to confirm a four hour uptrend and that would show us, you know, an over leveraged flush. And that's why those flushes are so hard, because everybody gets confident and bullish and over leveraged and you got to flush some of that out. And so that's what happened over the last 24 hours.
- [31:31]
Scott
Yeah, listen, nothing goes up indefinitely. Everything was overbought. And it just seems like a very reasonable time for the crypto market to take a breather and for the crypto market to take a breather. While Bitcoin's trading between 118 and 119 and only be giving back a little bit of the altcoin gains. This is reminiscent of cycles of the past. Yeah, just a cool off and not a crash.
- [31:55]
Dan
And for me, ETH remains captain alt. And look at this daily consolidation. We just went straight up. We're pulling back. This is still a possible daily bull flag. The burden is on bears to prove to us that this is not a bull flag. But my simple statement is always, you know, if this, for this EMA 12, if that is holding, it's a bull flag. And so again, the consolidation, at this point, there are no red flags. And what the bulls are hoping for is that we can get some type of cup and handle kind of action where, you know, we stall out just under 4,000. That's not surprising at all, especially when you're overextended. But whether it's a daily bull flag or a weekly bull flag, just keep consolidation healthy. And then, you know, of course we want that big green candle that just busts through that range and triggers a bunch of longs in, triggers a bunch of shorts out. But again, just after going straight up, you pull back, you set a daily higher low. And in an ideal world, that daily higher low is now the support level that holds, you know, into next week as we see uptrend continuation.
- [32:54]
Scott
What are you looking at in other markets?
- [32:57]
Dan
Psychedelics again. I don't want to have people chasing.
- [33:01]
Scott
Did you see I on Tuesday you were missing? Okay, cool. Yeah.
- [33:05]
Dan
Remind me the ticker, it's t. It's.
- [33:08]
Scott
One of the, I think over the Counter is truth and trip. Of course.
- [33:12]
Dan
Truth and trip. Yeah. And that's like truffle. Yeah, ATAI is doing that as well. They have bitcoin holdings on their balance sheet. But again, one of the things that has stood out for this company is just, or this chart I should say is just that it formed this, you know, multi year long term churn, sideways break out to two year highs. And you know, I'm, you know, I'm watching psychedelics and cannabis and it's a very stark difference in the general action of uptrend for psychedelics while cannabis is still struggling around and waiting for a headline catalyst. So the psychedelics have been doing it without, you know, we've got the underlying positive administration kind of backdrop, but there's not that big headline that gets retail involved and retail is still not on this one. There's, there's a lot of, there's not a lot at all of social media sentiment. And so again, we don't want to be chasing this name at this point, but you're watching for daily higher lows. We just talked about sideways. Look at this beautiful sideways consolidation before its next leg up.
- [34:11]
Scott
Yeah, that was what was so interesting to me. I've known Todd for years. Obviously they were the first publicly traded. I mean he really was a groundbreaking stuff. And I think psychedelics are about to have a moment A, in a vacuum, but B, the idea that they would just take some of their cash and put in bitcoin, which I obviously believed is really compelling for me. You would be mind blown by the amount of money that people are trying to throw to turn them into a bitcoin treasury company. Though the minute that announcement came out it's like, forget psychedelics, let's just send you some money and buy bitcoin.
- [34:42]
Dan
Yeah. And that's, you know, a lot, a lot of penny stocks do that where they'll, they'll, you know, there'll be a mining company that's nothing anymore, like an oil mining company and then they switch to cannabis because it's the narrative or whatever.
- [34:54]
Scott
That's what all these treasury companies are. They're taking dead NASDAQ traded medical stocks that like didn't get FDA approval but somehow got public and turning it into a bitcoin treasury company.
- [35:03]
Dan
Yeah. So the one cautionary statement with that is anytime you see a company doing that, just make sure you're watching what they're doing with the share structure. In terms of issuing debt, are they diluting a bunch, is there convertible debt? And you got to dig through the balance sheet to learn about that.
- [35:19]
Scott
Yeah, I mean, that's been my question. Every time they pitch, I'm like, but they're going to want such a huge portion of the company that they're going to want to be liquid. Like, there's no way this ends well for most of these companies. But I guess if you're like an executive in an existing zombie company and somebody's going to come in and basically pump your shares, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10%, and you're already liquid, I can see why they would do it. But there's no long term play there for investors, right? All right, man. Well, everybody give chart guys a follow of course on X and all of his amazing YouTube content. He will teach you how to do all of this, which is, I think, the most important thing, you know, teach a man to fish.
- [35:59]
Dan
Yes, sir.
- [36:00]
Scott
So give Dan a follow. I'm running off to go do my appearance on Sirius that I do on Thursdays. Dan, thank you so much, everybody. We'll see you next week. Bye. Let's do. That's dope.