← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:02]
Scott Melker
Bitcoin is up with many analysts saying that it should be heading into the 90,000. Gold is making new all time high after all time high. While the dxy, the dollar index versus other currencies is crashing and stocks are down. Oh and by the way, yields are up. So if anyone can make any sense of this absolute confusion, we've got James Lavish, Dave weisberger and Mike McGlone here. The three greatest in the game when we need to make sense of this nonsense because frankly I have no idea what the hell is happening. Welcome to Macro Monday.
- [00:38]
Dave Weisberger
That's dope.
- [00:52]
Scott Melker
What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like, like button. Gonna go ahead and bring on the three gentlemen now. The four amigos I guess we will be. You guys can be the three amigos to do the thing. Do you remember the three Amigos? That was a great movie, Mike. I have to imagine that the morning meeting went something like this.
- [01:15]
Mike McGlone
Yeah.
- [01:16]
Scott Melker
Hands in the air. What the hell's going on?
- [01:19]
Mike McGlone
Good, good point. You nailed it. Just some key headlines. Stuart Paul's our economist just pointed out. IMF world economic outlook tomorrow the in GDP estimate revisions is downward. Okay, we get that globally everywhere. Eric Eidelberg is fit in for fixed income. Just point out negativity in homebuilders index. Start reiterating that. And Gina was just pointing one key. Gina is still quite bearish. She said she's kind of shocked we haven't seen more short covering rallies. She's pointing out the market's in some kind of denial. She pointed out generally the market's still priced for 15% earnings growth and that's kind of shocking. With sales going down there's a trend in downward estimate revisions in earning. See the trends there? So the, the meeting morning meeting was quite doom and gloom bearish. And I keep. The thing that really struck me was when what Gina told me it's mentioned was markets in some kind of denial. And I. That was kind of my. That really struck for me.
- [02:17]
James Lavish
You know it's interesting. I don't know if it's. It is definitely in denial in, in ways we can see that though futures are selling off again. Mike, you and I have talked about this endlessly. The clues are in the bond market. Look at the bonds. I mean the bonds are again selling off. Get the. The. The two year to the 30 year spread is so wide. It's the widest it's been since what in the 90s, I mean, is wide. Am I, am I quoting that incorrectly?
- [02:51]
Mike McGlone
That's pretty wide. Yep. It's the last year.
- [02:55]
James Lavish
Yeah, exactly. So I'm gonna see if I can bring up this chart that, that actually shows that. So let's see if we can, we can bring this up. And here's what's in my mind. Here's what's going on now. It's the widest it's been since. And that was my, I was exaggerating. It's why it's been since 22, which really is blown out that, that spread what's going on. I think that investors are getting pretty concerned with Trump now threatening Powell. And so now you're starting to see that the dollar's under pressure, Treasuries under, are under pressure. We've got the uncertainty of the budget negotiations that are coming up for a new limit, debt limit. There's never really a limit. We all know that. But if the spending seems to be blown out still, even with Doge, that's bad because we're going to have even more bonds that come to the, to the market, which means that there's going to be even more need for liquidity and there's less liquidity out there. And that's starting to get people nervous. Now, if you've got Trump turning around, threatening to fire Powell, all on top of all, adds up to the, the greatest, most impactful word, the worst word for markets, which is uncertainty. And so that's kind of where we're at, you know, and so people are piling into gold for that flight to safety. They're not piling into Treasuries. That's probably the biggest. If you ask Luke Roman, this is going to be the, the biggest marker on the road right now is people are not piling into Treasuries, and that's an issue. So if you have a threat to the treasury being the, the, the flight to safety, then that's going to be, that's going to be very difficult for the US Fiscally. And so, funny enough, I'm going to t. Dave up here. Bitcoin is rising amidst all this. And, and that is a very interesting, it's a very interesting moment. Does it mean anything? Well, we don't really know yet. It could be that bitcoin just found a local bottom for now, you know, but it is very interesting that bitcoin and gold are up in the face of everything else being down.
- [05:31]
Dave Weisberger
Could I. I think this is simple Occam's razor. Two things. First, people are selling us outside the US and there's not enough US people left to buy the US So guess what? Its price goes down. Second, bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset to us. It's a global asset. And you know, if I keep hearing more about I'm gonna. I will relentlessly mock Mike for for his beta comment. I will not relentlessly mock Mike for his intelligent comments about gold and why it matters and why it's likely to be the biggest benefit, nor his intelligent comments about oil. As we careen down the world towards a global recession. Seems like it's already happening. When I say people are us, I mean it's a very big deal and the administration doesn't get it. Even Florida's tourism is down and noticeably down. You know, we have friends all over the world and we're hearing the same thing. The media in the uk, the media in Europe, the media in Japan don't know about Asia, although I with a couple people from Singapore and is true there are telling people do things like get burner phones if you come into the US because you don't know what's going to happen to you. It's all a bunch of fear. Tourism is way down. Imports of US goods is down. And that is, it is. You know, this kind of shock and awe approach which he thought would be related to just businesses, is not only affecting businesses, it's hitting people pretty hard and we have not seen the effects. The economy is far worse than the President thinks it is. And that is, that is a serious problem.
- [07:12]
James Lavish
You know, it's interesting Dave, is that you've had a, some, some channel stuffing here with people buying goods really like really going out and buying goods right now to avoid the future tariffs. And so you've got a lot of noise in the economic numbers right now.
- [07:30]
Dave Weisberger
The problem, the biggest single problem with economic numbers and it's why the Fed has always. Why I can't even fathom how there's 20,000 people that work there when the bus do a better job of economic prognostication than the Fed does. I mean it is the most monumental waste of money. And why am I always telling we got to audit the Fed and figure out because it's like how many economists is it screw in a light bulb? And the answer is in the Fed's case is, is, you know, 10,000 of them because they decided rather than moving the light bulb they want to rotate the house. You know, it's. They don't have a fucking clue. And I'm sorry, but they don't, you know, it's backward looking. Unfortunately, administration is the same problem. Backward looking. They look at the GDP data and they're seeing channel stuffing. But if you look at out a, it looks ugly, it looks really ugly. And it's for a reason. And I'm saying this very clearly because it's visceral. You know, I'm going to be Peter lynch here. You can go out in Florida, in Miami in its prime time. We are here in April and I can't tell you how beautiful the weather is, Mike. You know, it, it's been gorgeous. And the hotels are not full, the restaurants are not full. Everyone you talk to says it's down.
- [08:41]
Scott Melker
You guys were away. So we didn't get to do our dinner. But I will tell you, I went to Miami last week and my wife comments to me that when she looked at open table at every restaurant you could possibly want to go to all weekend, you could get any reservation you wanted. I've never seen anything like that. 2008, you go 7:00, two people, four people, hot restaurant. That's usually six months of reservation. It was just sitting there. Restaurants are empty.
- [09:06]
Dave Weisberger
Miami, we went, we went to a place that last year you, you had to wait, you know, you couldn't get a reservation to big place and went in Wynwood, I'm not gonna name it. It's not, not, not incredibly expensive, but one of these hot kind of trendy places there, there, there. I think there had to be 50 tables there. There were two tables, my two tables full when we went there. Dallas, 7:00, Dallas, just a couple weeks ago. And people don't like to put stock in this, but this is going to show up in data in a month or two. So if you want to know why.
- [09:38]
James Lavish
You know, and you've seen the airlines, how nervous they are, and they've all been talking their numbers down.
- [09:43]
Dave Weisberger
So yeah, it's. So the world's in a recession. The data hasn't shown it yet. It will show it in a quarter. So what does that mean for investing? Well, you know, if you're a US company, your profits are going to be lower if you're selling stuff right, you know, in a couple quarters, if you're a, you know, it could very well be, if you're. That there will be winners and there will be losers. People, however, understand what's going to happen. You know, all the bullshit with Trump and Powell, it doesn't really matter. You know, there's lots of stuff going on. You know, Elizabeth Warren, we talked about it, what she said, if Trump fires Powell and goes into some sort of weird power play with the Federal Reserve, then what will happen? Risk assets and you know, will do what risk assets always do when you inject a fire hose of liquidity, because that's literally the only reason he would do it is to do exactly that. Bitcoin and gold will, you know, bitcoin will moon, gold will continue its upward move, inflation, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. We could game theory that out risk assets are kind of caught because corporate profits are going to be down. But, and they will be down. There's no doubt about that. But people are going to say, well, the money has to go somewhere. And so you end up making the same mistake. I mean there's, you know, we could go on, on ad nauseam about this, but the bottom line is, if you want to know what's happening is people are not US stuff and therefore US stuff is going down in value outside of the world. Us in an interconnected world. I don't want to go all Thomas Friedman, but the fact is the world is interconnected and this administration thinks it isn't. And you know, if there isn't a resolution where it's very, very clear and if I, and by the way, if I were Japan or if I were any other country, I would basically be saying, you know, this just, it doesn't make sense, you know, and we pushing back hard. I mean this could easily turn into a big L across the board for the US in a lot of places. So it will see what they do. But the likelihood of pain is high. So now ask yourself in terms of Bitcoin specifically. Look, Bitcoin's uncorrelated, you know. Yes, that's not true, Mike. It's uncorrelated. Okay, okay.
- [11:58]
Mike McGlone
You obviously have a different P and L than everybody else is holding it. It's silly to say it.
- [12:03]
Dave Weisberger
Bitcoin is in the last month.
- [12:05]
Mike McGlone
Gold's up, Bitcoin's down in the air. What's up and the stock market's down. What's correlated?
- [12:12]
Dave Weisberger
When you talk about correlation, you pick periods in time. Look at it every day. If you watch it every day, Bitcoin moves with the risk markets during the US Day. If you look at it from November, if you pick any timeframe other than the apex of the pre Trump rally, which is what you're doing any time, it doesn't matter. You could pick, we could pick 100 different time frames other than the apex of the pre Trump rally. And you don't come to the same conclusion. That's the problem. And so, and people understand this, you know, it's. Do I expect bitcoin to soften from here today if NASDAQ and whatnot keep going down? Yeah, of course I do. Do I expect gold to continue to outperform as far as this goes until we, until something happens? Yeah, I do. But bitcoin will outperform when it's grinding higher. And then bitcoin will go through some face melting rally and pass it like it always does. But at the end of the day, there's more going to. There will be a more correlation between bitcoin and gold than there is between bitcoin and risk assets. When we look back five years from now and there are a lot of people who believe that. So if you look at what happened, Bitcoin went up this weekend, but more or less we're still at the top of a trading range.
- [13:21]
Scott Melker
I mean maybe we'd be above 88. I mean if you're talking about it from a technical perspective, just quickly. I mean the next to finally break lower highs and lower lows. For anyone who cares about charts, you got to get above 88, 804. Everything besides that is noise. But we are.
- [13:35]
Dave Weisberger
Which, which one is clearly breaking out here right now? What chart is that?
- [13:40]
Scott Melker
That's a daily bitcoin dollar chart from how.
- [13:43]
Dave Weisberger
Where's the back of it?
- [13:45]
Scott Melker
This is the right here is from January 25th when it made the all time high.
- [13:49]
Dave Weisberger
Okay, now can you go zoom back out, you know another double the length of that chart.
- [13:54]
Scott Melker
Here's weekly.
- [13:55]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, weekly is. Yeah, right. But you see what you see if you look, if you draw, if you draw it back from there. I mean we had this, this huge rally in anticipation that the market has to digest. And Mike keeps looking at the correlation from this ticky ticky top. If you go back any there or any other place to the left of the chart or anything. That's the point. And, and it doesn' a rocket scientist. We've been doing this, you know, we do this every week and we were talking about between 78 and 83. 78 and 83. And, and I said 78 to 80 was a tradable bottom. We were, we were sitting here between around 83, 83 and now today we're at 86 or 87 all the time. What's the NASDAQ done in that period of time? What's the s. Well the, the Dow.
- [14:42]
Scott Melker
Here, here's the cues and they're obviously down, they're down another 1.2% with Bitcoin up today. And if you take a look at this chart for the people who like Fibonacci, you get the top to the bottom, that big bounce you always get almost even in a bear market that Mike loves to talk about. Face melting rallies in a bear market usually bounce up 50, then head back.
- [15:00]
Dave Weisberger
Go back to the weekly on that. Go back to the weekly on that. And what you see, the same. If you do. If you got them in the same, same time scale.
- [15:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah, that's the weekly.
- [15:11]
James Lavish
Yeah.
- [15:12]
Dave Weisberger
Right. So you see that looks very different. That's a grinding rally higher. Bitcoin was like, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
- [15:18]
Scott Melker
And then this just made that first lower low. Bitcoin's been doing that.
- [15:22]
Dave Weisberger
That's right. So it's been, it's been different. And it's. As I said, those are not correlated assets in the, in the long term. And you can go back even further. It doesn't really matter where you go back to look. When the dollar goes down, when the do not. When, when you're talking about the denominator, when you're printing money and people are buying because they have no other place to put money. And that's what's going on in our stock market for decades now then. And that's why Mike and I agree on, on, you know, the extension, you know, the, the market cap to gdp and oh, by the way, if we're right about recession, that market cap to gdp, if the market hangs in even like this is going to be even higher. Right. That creates that, that creates certain pits of correlation. Anyway, look, the, the looking at betas and correlations, you know, I know I, I harp on that, but it matters on the other hand, that I tell you it's true. Mike is 100. Right. During the US trading day, if you see, if you look down and you see bitcoin just rallied. I haven't looked, but I'll bet you futures just rallied on, on S P and nasdaq. Right. Because that would be a guess. And if it isn't, then that, that would be different, but slightly. Yep, yeah, exactly. So that's the point. And so yeah, there's, there's a partial correlation here because the money flows are correlated and that matters. But this notion that bitcoin is leveraged, beta is one that, come on, it's not. It's a volatile asset because it's, repeat after me, an option. And you have people who are dealing with this stuff. Did Saylor announce where he bought his bitcoin yet this weekend he got it.
- [17:01]
Scott Melker
Right here and it's not small. Acquired 6556 for 555.8 million at 84, 785. So he's actually up on that.
- [17:11]
Dave Weisberger
Yay.
- [17:14]
Scott Melker
766 per bitcoin.
- [17:16]
Dave Weisberger
Right. So, you know, look, I personally think that, that his methodology of buying is dumb. I'm not going to lie. I think that, you know, that, that you could use, you could do, you could DCA in doing it over the weekend is it's, it looks like he's trying to create market impact which is never, which never works. And I think a large part of this market understands that. That said, there are 60 some odd other companies going along with him now and there are, you know, and that's kind of a big deal. So you know, there's a lot of, of head, a lot of tailwinds for bitcoin that aren't really materializing. But Mike's point, and I, and I want to phrase it this way because so many people dunk on Mike. Most of what Mike's saying I agree with literally most. We're in recession. Oil is, look, you saw what happened to oil this over the weekend, right? You know, it's very sensitive to that. But it's just, it's just this disconnect with bitcoin that drives me kind of crazy.
- [18:12]
James Lavish
That's it. But you know, one, one part that is right though is $. Dollar weaker, Bitcoin stronger. It's just, I mean that's just clear.
- [18:19]
Scott Melker
This is the dollar, James. I mean people who are like dollars not crashing. It's at 98 and has been straight down over 12% since January. That is a monster move on the dollar. And for those who haven't looked at the gold chart, by the way, holy moly. I mean that thing is absolutely insanely parabolic. Those two things are very, very meaningful. The thing is when the dollar is weaker, you're supposed to see stocks and risk going up. Right? So that's where I think a lot of the confusion comes.
- [18:51]
Dave Weisberger
That's right. So I mean, look, we, I think that some of these topics are overplayed, but there are some very important bits here. So if this is a blow off top for gold, I don't believe that's true by the way, then you invest in one direction. If this is a repricing of gold because we know the money printer is going to have to get fired up one way or another and the rest of the world is Basically telling, you know, the market is basically telling the president, hey, dude, you're wrong. The question is, will he realize that he's wrong and what will happen? That's the question. And I'm really curious, you know, what people are thinking. I don't know what the tea leaves are. And, you know, it's like he's been nuts. And I'm not going to, I can't phrase it anyone else on, on social media about a lot of stuff, you know. You know. Right. But he did make one point which is interesting, which is he said that the markets are going to demand from the administration a blood sacrifice. I don't know what the hell that means, but, you know, they're going to need to see people, you know, some backing off. And I have no idea who it will be or what will be, but it does seem like there's going to have to be some changes and the market can force that change. We used to talk about bond vigilantes. This is literally not just bonds, this is the market vigilantes. Mike, you've seen this before. We've seen this movie before. The last time we saw anything like this to a president of the United States, I was in college. It was Jimmy Carter.
- [20:22]
Scott Melker
Mike.
- [20:22]
James Lavish
Yeah, but we can all agree that the markets are not the economy. And that's been part of the, the disconnect here. And now we, now we're starting to see the markets react to actual economic indicators that are not looking that great.
- [20:37]
Dave Weisberger
I mean, I, Yeah, well, but I mean, look, Mike's obviously mad because I, I, I went to, I went.
- [20:46]
Mike McGlone
No, you didn't. Dave, come on, you're, you make me sound. And look, and I mean you educate us all.
- [20:52]
Dave Weisberger
I just want to look, go back to the 70s for a second because, because there's no Volcker and it doesn't really matter if there was, you know, the biggest single thing in the 70s that I used to harp on and I got into arguments with my economic professors on, it's actually the early 80s.
- [21:07]
James Lavish
I can't imagine Dave getting in an argument with a professor.
- [21:09]
Dave Weisberger
Well, you know, try being a monetarist at Northwestern and you understand that. But they completely missed and Volcker understood and Reagan understood the impact the importance of sentiment and inflationary expectations on inflation. The Keynesian models of the day all said, all said it would take seven years of recession to grind the inflation out of the economy. They all said that. But they neglected the fact that expectation becomes reality. And people, once they believed it wouldn't happen, stopped asking for wage Increases. Just wanted to keep the damn job. But the problem is that kind of shock treatment to the economy worked when you had a 34% debt to GDP, not when you're 130 or 200. And that's a very, very big difference. So what does that mean? Well, it means that if you try the same thing and people have argued 4D chess. I don't think there's any 4D chess going on. I think that there's a misunderstanding of the interconnectedness of the global economy and supply chains and they did something that is just, you know, nuts, which is assume us could build and turn on a dime when we haven't changed any of the ability for us to build stuff. Right. To me that's a big deal. Right. I mean I assume that your economists, Mike, have talked about the fact that how long it takes to build factories here and permitting and regulations and you know, you talk about doge, especially in certain states.
- [22:47]
James Lavish
In certain states like California, you're not California anything for the next four years.
- [22:51]
Scott Melker
What's that? I said California.
- [22:54]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah. You can't, you just can't. And so to assume.
- [22:58]
James Lavish
Nope, sorry, we've got the spotted, you know, lizard from. And you just. Sorry, we can't impact.
- [23:05]
Scott Melker
Don't find a tort, do not find a tortoise on the land where you need to build a factory because even in Florida you'll never get that factory built.
- [23:14]
Dave Weisberger
I mean it's crazy if you think about it. I mean There have been four permits as of last week issued after the fires. Four, you know, 50,000 houses destroyed. I think that was the number four have had rebuild permits issued. I mean this is the state you're dealing with and it's not just them. You know, I mentioned last week there's been not one mine for rare earths approved despite the fact that in that they're like the pebble mine. I think it's in Alaska, you know, they hadn't got it. Environmental impact statement doesn't matter. Still not approved. Not approved. Not approved. Not approved. Forget refining rare earths, which is even worse or the leeching. You can't do it. So that's a real problem. And, and if we don't fix that, you can't, you can't talk about trade deficits. So it's not exist.
- [23:59]
James Lavish
I do want to hear because look on, on the pre market trading, you know, I bet FBTC are up. They're. They're both up like two and a half, 2.7% and then from Friday and actually From Thursday. Sorry, the, and the futures are down over 1%. I, I am interested to hear what, and this is actually an indicator of what's going on in the world. I'm interested to hear what, what Mike does. Like what do you think is the cause that. Do you think it's an anomaly or do you just think it's just, you know, I mean how, how do you, how do we explain? I, I mean I, I think it's a lot has to do with the dollar and you know there's, there's no flight to safety to the bonds right now they're going into gold and it looks like bitcoin is sharing that. But that's. What do you think, Mike? I mean I'm not, I'm not trying to put you on the spot. I just really am interested in what you, what you think is happening.
- [25:01]
Mike McGlone
First of all, I never get mad when someone disagrees with me. I, I really appreciate the view by having been doing this for almost four decades with mostly people who are traders, not people who are long stuff that's got lots of speculative in it. It's how crypto people get mad when you disagree with them and they love you when you agree with them. So I got to show a few screens real quick and I'll piggyback on that. First of all, the most volatility discombobulation happens in bear markets. This is 200 week moving averages of bitcoin overlaid with the S&P 500. Good luck with that not being correlated. It's that same chart. So I'm just. Look at the 200 week moving average in Bitcoins. 46,000. Sorry, I think we're going there. Not a big deal. The 200 week moving average in the S&P 500 is 1/10 that 4600. Sorry, I think we're going there right now. This is a bit of an historic anomaly. Maybe it's different. First sign of that will happen. If bitcoin can sustain above 90,000, if it can do what it's doing today, if it can break above those levels I look at as a trader, you bounce up above levels, you put on a short, you put on a stop. If you're stopped out, then you go. Try to, to try. You go for what? The stop proved you wrong. Right now we haven't done that. We're just popping, bumping up the up against the upper end of the range. Same with Ethereum, maybe gets to 2000 again put stops above test shorts. Here's a key thing I Want to play with and show you the thing I learned early on. Peter Stoudemar Market Profile this is just a bitcoin to gold ratio. It got way too expensive. We identified that last year and it just got back to 25x. That's the high volume price from last year. That's nothing. That's the mean reversion. It should bounce from that level. So bitcoin to gold ratio. But I just want to show you how this works. And Dave always points out, yes, have to point out different points in time. So let's go back just a full year, two years of that. The bitcoin to go ratio could easily get back to the mean around 15. Let's go back to another two years, 20, 22. But I key thing are you. The point is why I'm making it. This asset has gone so far so fast that people have to realize when money leaves the system, which is just starting, you hit the stuff that's most expensive, most volatile. Even if people say it's leverage gold. This is part where I get to 10,000 bitcoin that if you just go back to the most significant money pump in history, which is what we're doing now, we're doing, we're learning all the lessons and pumping too much money in the system, getting inflation the highest in 30 years and then you start the reversion. We've got a great reason from that. You can get all the way down to here. So that's just the point I want to make. And it's if there's institutions coming in the space, why is open interest plunging? It's down 36 from the peak. And why has there been $5 billion of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs in the last three months? I'm just pointing out facts. Sorry, I just. Today's great.
- [27:36]
Scott Melker
Dave, before you jump in, Mike, another question. So sorry, we finished.
- [27:41]
Mike McGlone
If not, you go. I just pointed out this. I said, remember, this is the person who has been very bullish in the past. I called for bitcoin to lose a zero from 10,000 in 2018. Sorry, it got down to 3,000. It's the same thing now. The thing is it's just so much more commoditized, it's so much more financialized and there's so much people own it. And the key thing I get is that it's reaction you get from people. I've always used it. It's a human nature. They look like me. Like, I mean they're shocked that I could say get back to 10,000 well it's just where it was a few years ago that's the point we're way too over leveraged long a very highly speculative risk asset that people view as digital gold I've always used as digital gold it just got too expensive all commodities get too expensive and then they get to low price cure now I think we just haven't done that yet.
- [28:26]
Scott Melker
And this is bitcoin gold ratio back up yes so here's my question Obviously you said something gets overextended and then naturally that's the thing that sell off sells off and can we argue that gold is getting overextended now from a any trader who's been buying that as a trade is looking at 3400 and saying my God, I've got a trip.
- [28:48]
Mike McGlone
So let me give you but the.
- [28:50]
Scott Melker
Question is if it's actually China and a central bank buying and they're price agnostic and they're just trying to gain more exposure then all bets are off as far as traders and charts so.
- [29:01]
Mike McGlone
It'S all bets are never off for rational traders and this is just my background and it's key thing you learn sometimes is some people are fundamental, some people are technical some people are both I'm everything but I remember from the technicians some of the best traders I know most of them are retired or dead would point out that they would not Please don't talk about the fundamentals and distorts my views I just want to point a few things about gold I'm on the tips just ready to write a published report about go get an expensive now just remember people say it's the stuff you say this is not stuff I say this is stuff I repeat what I publish on the Bloomberg terminal remembers what I know how many million almost thousands of professionals will use that so I just repeat that in the show and I'm going to point out right now goals up 30% in the year in the last hundred years there's only been 8 times has been up only 30 times 30% in the year the most recent example is 2007 I was very long ago because I had the same situation I was now I was more of a trader I thought everything was too expensive yes it went down a little bit in 2007 but only gave back some of those gains So I just want to point out the other times every single one of them was in the 70s and almost every single time crude oil was rallying was up almost 50% right now crude oil is down 12%. This is the epic deflation from the reset reef inflation that some of us have been speaking about for two years. Typically it takes a couple years. Remember there's a quote from Roger Babson in 1929. It's all kicking in now. And I think that's my point is when money leaves the system, you hit and sell what you can. And yes, I agree with bitcoin is digital go. But that whole space, even the fact that dogecoin is up more than bitcoin to me says this is short covering. The risk is it goes back down. And the risk is we have to get cheap. We always do that. But one good example is just recently natural gas got really cheap. It got down to 1.5, it bumped up. That's just a shorter term thing. So I look at it as a commodities. It's a number on, it is a commodity, it's a number on the screen. And be careful with the fundamentals. Just watch what the market's telling you right now. Yes, it's showing some divergent strength. But here's the key thing about still bullish gold. And bottom line, it's very simple. I'm much more in the Warren Buffett camp than the Michael Saylor camp. I've been in the Michael Saylor camp before, particularly 2020. But he pressured that, he tempted the bond, the market gods. I think Dave's doing that now too. And I just like out. That's why I still point it. Bitcoin to gold ratio is the same as it was in 2021. I'm sticking with gold. It's expensive. That's where everything's getting expensive. And I still want to point out one key thing that's going to happen is yes, they're hitting Treasuries right now, but believe me, if they're hitting treasury, that's the worst for the stock market. This is the average of the yields of the top three exporting countries on the planet. China, Japan, Germany. Their average is 1.8%. We're 3, 4.32% now. We've seen this before. It's a short term blip. But at some point I think we're going back down here. We've seen this before. I made the same calls in the past. I've been early, I've been wrong on this one. But to me that's where we're going. The rest of the world's deflating rapidly and we're just. You just, we haven't broken. We just just broke some trend lines, s and P500, we get the 4000 which Gina's looking for, then things get serious. Right now it's just been a minor correction in a bull market.
- [32:01]
James Lavish
Okay, Scott, can you, can you share, hold on a second. Dave, can you share this chart? So here's normalized what you're looking at here. Normalized chart for five years back. The white line is the nasdaq. The green line is Nvidia. The orange line is Bitcoin. Now Bitcoin's lagging the adoption of Nvidia. And so here's my, here's what's interesting to me, Mike, is I think you're just looking at Bitcoin as a true, just a pure risk, pure speculative asset. And that is the way you're seeing it. And that's fine. This is where you're, in my opinion, differ. I think Bitcoin is being adopted just like Nvidia is being adopted by computer, the high speed, the high performance computer makers and, and the cloud engine. So this is a, this is a picture of an, an asset that's being adopted. And it's in the adoption phase. I mean, you can pick out any, any of these little periods here and say, yeah, it was correlated. Nope, it wasn't. Yes, it was. Nope, it wasn't. You know, and today's point, you pick out periods where it was and it wasn't correlated to the overall market. Maybe it was leading it, maybe it was just more volatile than it. But this period right here, it's not correlated right here. And maybe Bitcoin let it down, but it's been holding this, this level here while the NASDAQ has ground lower this whole period now. So what I'm saying here is that this is, I believe, an asset that's being adopted. And you know that because of the hash rate. And we go back to the hash rate over and over and over and over and over again. Why does it matter? I quoted this in the tweet last week and that it actually has to be updated. The bitcoin is using 180 terawatt hours of power. And what does that mean? That is the equivalent of 21 full scale nuclear reactors using energy for this network. What's important about that, Mike, is that no other cryptocurrency that you're talking about has anything even close, like nothing even close to that kind of backing and that kind of adoption rate. So the actual, what you, what we ought to be looking at is the adoption rate and the hash rate. To understand what's happening behind the scenes. This Sometimes the volatility of it has to do with the, the adoption phase of it. And just like you are looking at it that way, many, many, many people are looking at Bitcoin as, as a speculative asset and hoping that maybe they'll get rich off of it and trading around it and levering around it. And that's all fine and good, but if you look at the long, long, long term chart of it, it's being adopted. That's reality. Now whether or not that hash rate is being driven by sovereigns is another question. And we, we. I don't want to get into just a bitcoin only show here, but what's important about that is you, we have to, we have to understand that hash rate is being driven higher at the expense of the current mining environment and, and the current public miners. They cannot keep up and stay profitable.
- [35:17]
Scott Melker
Like they're selling and they're selling.
- [35:19]
James Lavish
This is insane. And so why is that happening? Who's, who's mining at a loss? That's a good question and I think we have some speculative answers there. But it's not, it's not just this thing. It's just a, you know, whipping around on a trip on a, on a trading desk or on the, in the, in the exchanges. This is something that's happening behind the scenes. And so it's much bigger than that in my opinion.
- [35:40]
Scott Melker
But we do publicly traded miners. Quickly, Mike, just to support that, that March was the biggest month of selling in very, very many months, if not years by public miners. And they just have to, to support the business.
- [35:53]
Mike McGlone
To your point there, it's silly for people who have a vested interest in a price going up. To add to that, it means being in the commodity space all the time. Producers should always hedge by selling normal backwardation. But okay, so I. James, that's it. You, you quoted things I was said eight years ago. Got it. Bitcoin is being adopted. That's my point. I think we've reached the peak. Let me finish. At a hundred thousand with the launch of ETFs. I said that for almost six years. As soon as we get widely disseminated ETFs, that'll be a bit of a peak. We've gotten that now. My main premise is once we flush out some of the excesses in some of these silly cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and Shibuinu and all those, then we'll see a bottom. I don't see signs of that. So first of all, show for me to get so more Bullish. First of all, close above 90,000, stay above this Ethereum. Close above 2,000, stay above their bitcoin to gold ratio, which I'm showing you here. If it's so bitcoin so great, why is it the same as it was four years ago? So that's my point. If bit can, bitcoin can't breathe, this beat the boomer rock. Something's wrong with bitcoin. That's my point. Once I see maybe inflows and ETF start picking up and I mean for a couple months in a row. Yes, let me finish. Once I see open interest and futures start picking up. Yes, it's a good sign. My point is right now we're seeing a little divergence, bounce pointing out if we keep going down in the stock market, money is going to leave the system. All these speculative X's will continue to leave. And if dogecoin goes down, you see the correlation. Bitcoin is much more highly correlated dogecoin than it is to gold OR S&P 500.
- [37:20]
James Lavish
Mike, gold has been around for thousands and thousands of years. Bitcoin's been around for 15.
- [37:27]
Mike McGlone
Yes. And it's had a great run. The best performing assets. I'm just pointing out, I think so. Simple, simple. I'm in Warren Buffet's camp. We can disagree. I mean, it's great to disagree.
- [37:36]
Dave Weisberger
By the way, has never gotten technology right and Warren Buffett is. And I, I want to point out today about Warren Buffett because it matters. To the next comment. Warren Buffett is the single biggest beneficiary of financialization on the planet. Warren Buffett has made most of his money by buying, you know, some of, you know. Yeah, okay, famously he bought insurance companies. He's bought some other stuff he's made. So he has made his money on the basis of the massive amounts of monetary printing and debasement which has created this massive trend to where the financial industry is more than doubled its value inside of the real economy despite adding no more value to the real economy. And anyone who's ever negotiated, if you've been on a derivative desk, you know, Berkshire and Buffett and Munger before he passed away were the, were the worst people on the planet to negotiate derivatives with.
- [38:30]
Mike McGlone
Yes.
- [38:30]
Dave Weisberger
You know that they squeezed every single penny out of it. So every time people look him as a kind old grandpa. No, he's a shark. And he's, he's literally the most emblematic human being of why we have the greatest wealth in inequality in human history. And it is really true is because when you pump the money supply, you make money to people like Buffett. But he never got technology right. He's always been wrong. He was wrong.
- [38:56]
Mike McGlone
I meant one thing.
- [38:58]
Dave Weisberger
He tells you that. Yeah, yeah, he understands. So, but, but let's go into it because there's two things that you're saying that are, that are really problematic.
- [39:06]
Mike McGlone
Number one, show my screen. Prove to me that bitcoin three or four years now that bitcoin the gold is the same.
- [39:15]
Dave Weisberger
Look Mike, two things. First of all, you're right, it's silly. Scott, pull up the bitcoin hash rate long all versus Bitcoin price. And in 2021, Bitcoin got way the ahead of its network development people. It was a hype cycle and we had all sorts of shit. We had ftx, which people, you know, at the bottom of FTX with forced selling of basically half the industry collapsing, they couldn't get it below 16,000 at V bottom back to over 20. So when you talk about 10, it makes my head hurt. You're basically saying it's going to fail.
- [39:52]
Mike McGlone
But okay, no, you said that. No, I wouldn't call that a failure. I just call a normal backup like Amazon did. And then it became the best asset ever. But it had a flush people out.
- [40:05]
Dave Weisberger
This way is still trading at a 90 discount. And so you, you need to. Well, in the view of people who are buying it, you know, okay, of course they're bullish setting and is whatever, but. But when you look at your chart of the S P and bitcoin and all that other stuff, you have to factor out monetary, the global M2, you have to. Because that's literally. No, that's. But that's what it is. Gold's going to trade around it. Everything trades around it because you can't ignore the denominator. Now bitcoin has had its own unique stuff, right? People got really too excited in 21. It went way over its skis. Its adoption now is there. You're saying ETFs was the apex of adoption? No, the apex of adoption is when people are buying bitcoin in spot and when the economy around bitcoin allows that to happen. This weekend was a massive announcement on Saturday that we have to talk about. And if you think that this isn't relevant, you're not paying attention. Charles Schwab said they're going to offer bitcoin and crypto trading within the next 12 months. Now Morgan Stanley said they were going to do it through E trade. This is Charles Schwab And I know that this is serious. I can't say how I know this is serious. And I know this is serious because now all of a sudden, if Charles Schwab is doing this, every single broker dealer is going to let every single financial advisor trade bitcoin spot. Not just ETFs, and not, you know, and not only unsolicited, they're going to put it as part of portfolios. That is a massive piece of news. That's why it's up today, in my opinion. In my opinion, this piece of news is why bitcoin is bucking the trend. Not because people have all of a sudden got religion. Hallelujah. Bitcoin is more like gold. But this is the reason smart people understand this is a major, major piece of news. Now, every time we've had major, major pieces of news that I've thought about this, it's been early. When Paul Tudor Jones said it was the fastest horse, it kind of went up a little. And then a few months later, it exploded. We see these sorts of gap volatility all the time. So there's two. Those are two things. Adoption, it's not done. Bitcoin is still held by a shareholder, vanishingly small percentage of people with wealth around the world. It is not even close to done. I'm sure James has these statistics in the deck he uses to talk to investors about. So the adoption on bitcoin isn't done. If it were, if, if, if you told me that over 50% of all the people who could own bitcoin do own it, then I would say, Mike, you're probably right. But we're at 7%. That's a very big difference. And that doesn't even count the sovereign side.
- [42:40]
Scott Melker
I think adoption, which Mike would ask, which is. And I would ask as well. I agree with everything you just said, Dave, but this is plumbing, right? So we still need the demand. Those people have to. My question is, even with Schwab coming in, how many people who really wanted to buy bitcoin or get bitcoin exposure didn't find a way outside of their Schwab account?
- [42:59]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, but that's. But the problem is, is Wall street has taught us something Wall street teaches us. When salespeople, you know, it's like, it's like you run a company, no sales people. If you don't have salespeople, you don't sell product. I mean, you sell some, you don't sell product. The fact that there are tens of thousands of salespeople that are by the end of this year going to be able to sell it is a very big deal right now. You have to jump through hoops to buy it. You still do things.
- [43:27]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I agree. So really quickly I just want to point out that the market did just open the queues gap down and are actually making lows and bitcoin currently is pushing to new daily highs. So we now have the market open and bitcoin did not drop alongside everything else, which I do find interesting. Mike, one thing I totally agree with you on, but also want to push back on is the notion that we have to lop off a zero of all these altcoins that need to go all the way down. I would just make the argument that if you've been watching this is bitcoin dominance, I mean it's a bull market, has been nothing but a steady train upwards and if you look at most altcoin charts outside of the largest ones, which by the way are still down 80, 90%, you have. Everything has gone to zero. And I would argue that this time has been different than other rises in bitcoin dominance because that used to be in the washing machine market where crypto natives would get bored in bitcoin, go buy all coins, then the bitcoin would go up, they'd go back and do this circular thing. This to me when I look at this anecdotally, but also we have new buyers of bitcoin and we have people exiting alts entirely to cash because they need to pay their bills. This money this time is not emblematic of altcoins selling into bitcoin out of fomo. This is capitulation in altcoins that have largely gone to zero and new buyers buying bitcoin. That's all I would say to that. So I agree with the notion that there's a lot of froth obviously in the altcoin market. I would just also say that from watching that market so closely, seeing new things that should have been heavily hyped, try to launch and come in under like, like Investor FDV. That was supposed to be a TEDx. This is not happening right now in the altcoin market at all. I could make the argument that it's already died, which is what you're looking for as a signal.
- [45:16]
Dave Weisberger
Look at 30 days, this is just data. Bitcoin up three over three and a half percent in 30 days and seven days, which is interesting. It's basically about the same ethereum on a 30 day basis down 17%. Right. Dogecoin on a 30 day basis. Down almost 7% on a 7 day dogecoin. Down 4.4%. They're not. Bitcoin is outperforming in a very, very serious way. That's just data anyway.
- [45:44]
Scott Melker
Keep going Mike.
- [45:47]
Mike McGlone
So I don't disagree with that. I think the key bull markets that I remember speaking about in 2018 in Hong Kong when, when tether was $2 billion, that's a bull market. The proliferation of crypto dollars. Bull market, complete bull market. I think we're going to continue as bitcoin dominance I think can get back to 90%. But to give you my big base case is I think we're we Bloomberg Economics is looking for a 30% drawdown in the S&P 500. Okay, we've got 10% so far. Bloomberg Intelligence thinks we're going to 4,000 S&P 500. I think we're going to have a normal 50% drawdown in the s&P 500. It's happened two times the last 25 years. This is the most expensive market in history and got the best rule forever. When you take money out of the system you hit the stuff. That's the least, the most vul. Whole crypto space to me reminds me of what I read about stocks in 1929 when I remember trading stocks in 1999. What happened with the housing market in 2006. I mean it's so. It's a complete cult. And speaking just listen to some of you speak too is you get mad when people disagree with you and you point out facts of the future which is I appreciate your opinions but just remember things we've pointed out so far in this show is bitcoin peaked when the mountain of ETFs in Bitcoin reached on a risk adjusted basis same as gold just a few months ago. Now I just pointed out I've been involved with that one for quite a while. People always said oh people are going to buy gold. Well they're starting to do that finally but they don't usually do that. And bitcoins kind of space when you keep telling me about institutions come. I've heard that from Mike Novogratz for a decade. I get it. He always says it sometimes in bear markets. Now I have better ways to really see that. I've always looked at the hash rate. I get you. I remember Scott, I've been on this forum for a long time. The point is now I want to see the beef. Let me see an open interest in futures. Let me see an ETF inflows. I'M seeing the opposite. Let me see that. So it's great to see the bounce today. So I'm like one wonderful. Can you break above that resistance and continue to do. And I think the next key thing we're all looking for is amount of wealth destruction. Very, very reciprocal to the amount of wealth creation. It's not complicated. It's always happened history and we're just starting the process and I think this is part of the balance. Maybe I'll be wrong. That would be wonderful if I am. But to me, when you see all those excesses and the meme coins and things that are worth $25 billion that are jokes. Yeah. That needs to be purged. That means the whole space is going to get. Then I think everything is going to get that we're going to get the deflation that is reciprocal to the inflation. Cryptos are just the leading edge of that.
- [48:16]
James Lavish
But you've got it backwards, Mike. Bitcoin doesn't go up because of cryptos. Cryptos go up because of bitcoin.
- [48:22]
Mike McGlone
I got it, I get it. But so that has millions of dependents that need to go. That need bitcoin to go up. My point is dependents can drag you.
- [48:29]
Dave Weisberger
Lower and they have. I mean the, the crypto selling. The crypto native selling over the last three months has been unrelenting.
- [48:38]
Scott Melker
Yep.
- [48:39]
Dave Weisberger
And so it's the it. The. The issue is at what point does that, does that stop and when.
- [48:45]
Mike McGlone
So you think it's over. I don't. That's all.
- [48:48]
Scott Melker
I just don't think they're selling bitcoin, Mike. I think if we're talking about the crypto natives, I really think that they're all like very optimistic about where bitcoin's going and insanely bearish on the altcoins that they're just dumping off every time they need to pay a bill.
- [49:01]
Mike McGlone
So what happens? Excessive optimism in markets. That's my point. We just need to purge that. And there's still two optimism. We haven't had a normal lower price cure in this market. And maybe, maybe we'll be lucky and we maybe will just be. It'll stop as great after. So here's the key thing I always pointed about. But once you launch ETFs, you're in the mainstream. Bitcoin was great when it was insiders like us years ago. I mean I wasn't an inside. I just grabbed on the as source as a. A bubble and joined it. Now I just think it's imploding. It's just Giving back and I just don't think it's done. That's not a big difference from your views.
- [49:34]
Dave Weisberger
The difference is adoption. I've said it a billion times.
- [49:38]
Mike McGlone
No, I don't disagree with that.
- [49:39]
Dave Weisberger
But it doesn't show adoption. Bitcoin at full adoption is more than 10 to 15x here. And so these are good views. These, these moves are squiggles. Okay, that, and that's a long term thing. Now I'm not, you know, I, I got, I added a post where I criticized Sailor this weekend because I'm so tired of his metaphysical crap. I mean James, you, you talk to the guy and he's friends but every time he gets metaphysical I feel like he's doing exactly what Mike said. He's tempting the market gods, yada yada yada. It's just, you know, he's not a philosopher king. He's someone who identified bit an asset that will reach its potential and his bet and basically pushed all his chips, continues to push all his chips into the middle and he's been able to acquire more chips. That doesn't mean he's a philosopher king. It means he made a smart bet and I think ultimately it's going to pay off. But all the metaphysical stuff is crap. But the simple things that we care about are the denominator, the amount of dollars in the debasement and the fiscal. What's going to happen happen to our budget deficit. What's going to happen in Europe with Germany going into budget deficits? The amount of monetary printing. Japan has been at 200% debt to GDP for decades now. Literal decades. And the reason they can is because their population was captive and saved in their postal system and that's why they have it. They're kind of in a rock and a hard place and they look at what Trump is asking them to do as you've got to be kidding me. Because they're balancing their house of cards cards. But this monetary difference, this monetary environment we have, the fiat system is in it, it is certainly looking rickety right now. And because it was based upon globalization, it was based upon, you know, deflation in goods production by being able to offshore those trends ending are massive trends. I mean I, I hate to get all fourth turning on people but that's massive trend. And a lot of the people who have dollars are like looking at it saying okay, wait a minute, that's why bitcoin is up. That has nothing to do with everything else. Just, just to be clear, Ethereum, the, the thing that Vitalik said This weekend, in my mind, should, should cut it in half. I'm sorry, I own some. I, I, it should cut it in half. The notion that he said maybe we should move away from the EVM and, and, and, and go towards basically said.
- [51:59]
Scott Melker
Maybe we were wrong.
- [52:00]
Dave Weisberger
Let's do something right now. You do that. You look at that and this is where I get all Mike McGlone on them. It's like, well, but it's a 200 million, $200 billion market cap based upon its potential, not based on some see.
- [52:12]
Scott Melker
Cut it in half and some see depression buy signal. Like that has to be the bottom kind of thing.
- [52:18]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, well, it could be. But, you know, I look at this and I say, why should it be a $200 billion thing, you know, if it's, if, if its potential is based upon something that we now say doesn't really matter. So look, we could talk about all this stuff. The TAM to all of crypto is big. I think it's really interesting. The last week, the only other crypto on in the top 12 I'm looking at actually in the top, you know, basically the only crypto in the top, you know, 12 that is up other than bitcoin. Anything substantively over the last seven days. Well, Solana now is, because it's been rallying, but is Chainlink and Solana, which have had incredibly good metrics. BNB has been up a little bit.
- [52:57]
Mike McGlone
It.
- [52:57]
Dave Weisberger
But when you look at this.
- [52:59]
Scott Melker
Because those are the ones that should be up.
- [53:01]
Dave Weisberger
Yep. But that's the point. The point is the market isn't necessarily as stupid as it's been. Now, is there stupidity in the market? Yeah, I mean, you know, every time I see people talking about, I see fart coin up 7% today, and that just makes me crazy. And, and I start agreeing with Mike. I'd like.
- [53:17]
Mike McGlone
Sorry about that.
- [53:18]
Dave Weisberger
So fun.
- [53:19]
Mike McGlone
If we agree.
- [53:19]
Scott Melker
It's so true, though.
- [53:21]
Dave Weisberger
And those things are crazy. But the point is bitcoin. There's two things that matter for bitcoin. Number one by far in orders of magnitude, is adoption. And to talk about its price as having peaked. Remember inelastic supply? Not the same as commodities. The commodity super cycle happens because when prices go up, supply expands because people start investing in pulling the shit out of the ground. Bitcoin, you can't do that. But it's happening. People are investing in it to try to pull, you know, to try to mine it, but it doesn't change the supply. And so the hash rate is, is basically a hash war developing. It's more and more people thinking this is serious and investing. Will they ultimately be wrong? Maybe. But the difficulty adjustments in the network and whatever will mean the network is more secure. It's a different hammock and that's why it's different. I, I want to be, I just, I can't stand the fact that people keep saying that we have over optimism in bitcoin. I mean the fear and greed index has been fear or extreme fear now for months. Right. It's not like there's, you know, we get on these shows and on days like today we'll go on crypto town hall and people will probably be oh wow, look how great bitcoin is and they'll be happy. But those are not the people who are putting money into the system. Those are people who are saying, oh God, please, dear God, I need to, you know, I need to make my.
- [54:42]
Scott Melker
Like Mike said, they're praying for their bags.
- [54:43]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, that's right. And that's different. The actual technical traders and the people on the margin all are looking or hoping to get 88 or 89 to sell because they figure it will fail at resistance. And I think they'll probably be right because I think we're still in a range until we get more adoption metrics, until we get out of this. The question is what happens when the market, when the administration decides they need to rescue the markets. That's what the question what happens when liquidity enters the system? God forbid. You know, there's, we spend our time firing Powell and decreasing the independence of the Fed and the Fed becomes a political appendage of the White House. Every at risk asset will go up. Bitcoin will go up by an order of magnitude more. I think, I think that could be an absolute face melter because of that. I mean, James, what do you think? I mean, you know, in terms of what.
- [55:34]
James Lavish
Yeah, because you, you'll have the old, you'll have yield curve control to oblivion.
- [55:40]
Dave Weisberger
I think that it would be bad. I think that the ultimate, you know, crack up boom followed by potentially, I don't know about hyperinflationary collapse, but a crackup boom followed by a collapse seems well at that point. But the collapse will be in the real economy, not necessarily in the fake economy.
- [55:55]
James Lavish
I mean there's a tacit relationship in the worldview that the central banks are not part of the government. That's, you know, that's kind of the belief. And if you break that then you break the confidence in whatever currency you're talking about. I mean because you break the confidence in that, in those Treasuries. That's the issue.
- [56:18]
Mike McGlone
So the key thing I think is timing. We've had the biggest crack up boom ever in terms of pumping liquid in the system because of COVID Now we're starting to collapse in my view. I like to see it be proven wrong. That's my point is when people like Larry Lepard write about the next print. We've had the biggest print ever. It's unprecedented the amount of money we added to the system in 2021, 22. Now we're finding the results of that. The rest of the world has nothing but facing downward estimate GDP revisions. I'm talking about just removing money from the system but not money from a normal level. From the most expensive US stock market ever. It broke the trend line versus MSCI X US index that erode since 2009. It's breaking down. So I just. It'd be wonderful see if this highly volatile risk asset that's been highly correlated that was born of the end of 2009 of that massive pump in liquidity will diverge. That's my point is the whole space I think is just heading lower. We're seeing a bounce. But so my point is it's very big picture and then I try to narrow down to small stuff. So I mean I agree complete with the adoption. I remember I've always said you can't hold gold anymore without some bitcoin in a space. I just think we're in a bit of a. A downward trajectory where this is finally we're going to purge some of the excesses and bitcoin is going to come out ahead. But I said the exact same thing in 2018 it was going to lap off a zero that was around 10,000. It bumped up a while it got down to three. Not big difference. It was ended the year. And the difference like I said is it just remember I'm just pointing out unbiased views of what happens in highly speculative markets that move a lot and have a lot of dependence and things. That's my point is it's just heading that way. So maybe you can stay above 90,000 if the stock market is going down. My point is again we still haven't. We barely started this correction. This is replaying to me like 2008 again, which when I was again overweight gold and underweight all risk assets to me this is worse because now we have this shift in government, we have this paradigm shift in tariffs and austerity and the rest and we're shutting off. This is a complete shift in the post World War II order. But to point out something that's really positive about this, the self correcting mechanism. America's unstoppable. Once we get through this period, by the time we get the midterms, if things aren't really going in Trump's favor, we'll push back. And by we get to the end of his term, it's over forever. But the key thing is we're talking about some of the most highly speculative risk assets on the planet. And there's a lot of people speculatively long. We all know that. I'm just talking about purging for now and I'm looking for those good signs of that being over. And I'm pointing out I've heard this in many other markets before. I just don't think we've reached that low price cure yet. Sorry for people overweight trying to get rich. But that's the key thing that always happens with human nature. You see other people do it, you hear about it, other people do it, your wife's best friend's husband did it and then you get overweight and it just flushes you out. So here's the key thing I'll end with. Unfortunately, the only reason I compare Michael Saylor Buffett is just overweight cash or overweight Bitcoin. I think unfortunately we all know when you have people like him who extol things like take an unordinate amount of risk and one ask it oftentimes what history proves is you got to stop them off out, you put in a bottom and then you go up, unfortunately.
- [59:23]
James Lavish
Okay, but hold on, let me just say two things. First, I agree with you that we, that the market got way ahead of itself. The general, you know, tech market in particular. For sure there is a speculative bubble there of, of sorts, but there's another bubble. And so you talked about the biggest print in history back in $5 trillion we printed back in, in 2021, 2022. But there's another big bubble that is the reason for that. And the reason for that is the debt bubble. We are so financially leveraged. And it's not just the country, it's sovereigns, it's banks, it's individuals. We are so levered all the way through the amount of leverage in the system. Now we're running 120 debt to GDP here, here. And the reason that that makes that that matters is that, and this is where Larry's point is, and Larry and I disagree on timing of This a little bit. But you know the reality is we are in such a leverage bubble, Mike, that there is no choice but for these central banks to keep the charade going and print to oblivion to keep it going. Because you have to have more money, any supply out there to deal with all the debt that you've piled up. You've got to make those dollars and make those currencies cheaper and there's the only way you're going to be able to pay down that debt or at least keep up the charade. And does that trigger for that happen? That is very.
- [60:56]
Dave Weisberger
So it's, it's not binary.
- [60:59]
Mike McGlone
Look, it is the trigger for that to happen. I just one point on that, completely agree with that. The trigger for that happen is risk assets going down. Why has the Fed not eased again this year? Because I'm going down enough.
- [61:11]
Scott Melker
Bonds could do it.
- [61:12]
Dave Weisberger
That bonds it's unemployment. So there's two points that I want to, I want to pile on on top of James first of all which.
- [61:19]
Scott Melker
Which will come to a conclusion 1002 Dave. So you got a TLDR point one.
- [61:23]
Dave Weisberger
It pushes every dollar printed today does significantly less benefit to the economy than happened in 2008. So it takes more and point number two is as unemployment and it hits the working class. That's what's going to push this administration toward taking extraordinary measures. It's not necessari. The stock market. The stock market is reacting but less than you might think to what we're saying is going on in the economy. The result of that is you ain't seen nothing yet. If you think 2000 and and Covid was the biggest money print in history, my prediction is it's not going to even be close because it's, it's additive. We haven't taken any of that money out of the economy. It got printed, it got pushed in. It's all there. And that denominator is how you measure all assets. And that's a large part of what you've seen.
- [62:11]
Mike McGlone
A lot of that money went into cryptos.
- [62:13]
James Lavish
Scott, share this really quickly. This is the to Dave's point, every, every single dollar of debt that we, that we issue is creating less GDP and started the great financial crisis. Every single dollar. And this is the problem right here. You're getting diminishing level of real productivity off of the debt. And that means you got got to keep printing, keep printing, keep printing to get that GDP up to where the debt is. That's just reality. And you've got to get it above to Start paying that debt down.
- [62:45]
Mike McGlone
Turning Japanese one point. The 10 year note yield there is 1.3%. I think that's where we're heading with our tenure. Oh, China 1.6%. Believe me, 3.34.
- [62:55]
Dave Weisberger
The Secretary of the treasury would be a very happy man because that's what he wants.
- [62:59]
Mike McGlone
Yeah, they'll get it.
- [63:02]
Scott Melker
Do you know, it's incredible. I could be wrong but I don't think we said the word tariff once.
- [63:09]
Mike McGlone
Beyond that.
- [63:10]
Scott Melker
We're beyond that.
- [63:13]
Dave Weisberger
Well it's because we're all looking at it as we. Who the hell knows what's going to happen, Scott. And the world is basically telling us that the economy is going to be a depression if things don't, if we don't get back to some sort of normalcy and we're all just kind of looking at it saying well can they, can they know? Who knows?
- [63:30]
Scott Melker
I don't know if the world is or if gold is because that chart is just mind blowing.
- [63:36]
Dave Weisberger
That is, that is exactly what. When you, when you used to listen to Greenspan's press conferences back 20 some odd years ago. Oh yeah, he would say I'm not worried about gold. I'm not worried gold right now. If he was running the, the Federal Reserve, he'd be worried about gold.
- [63:50]
Mike McGlone
Yeah.
- [63:51]
Dave Weisberger
And that would be a trigger to have his, his buddies at JP Morgan to, you know, you may want to some futures, I don't care if you have it just to do something about it but I don't think that there are forces although allowed to do that anymore.
- [64:04]
Mike McGlone
It's, it's such a global market. It's. I always kind of. We don't have to get into much. It's huge global. I mean US might not like it, but a lot of people in China and India and Turkey like gold.
- [64:14]
Scott Melker
Nasdaq's down 2.4% today. Bitcoin's up. I, I do have to say, and Mike, you have said repeatedly over the past few, two, two weeks on all the shows, Bitcoin is showing relative strength.
- [64:26]
Dave Weisberger
Let'S say divergent strength, diversion strength.
- [64:30]
Scott Melker
Yeah, that's the micro and, and today, today more than ever because usually those sudden bumps retrace the minute that the market opens on Monday.
- [64:40]
Mike McGlone
If the stock market keeps going down and bitcoin keeps doing this. Yes. That's a very significant sign of everything you've been saying. We'll see if that can continue. I just use use oftentimes it's it. That's what bear markets do. Give people hopium.
- [64:51]
James Lavish
I Can't wait till next week.
- [64:53]
Scott Melker
Oh my God. Dying. I. I actually think you guys are gonna have to run it without me because I think I'm gonna be on a plane to Dubai on Monday, so.
- [65:01]
James Lavish
Yeah, come on, you're not, you're not gonna have your own little cabin with.
- [65:05]
Scott Melker
I'll try, but I don't know. The, the. The Internet on Emirates is non existent. Literally. Doesn't work the entire flight every time. Anyways, guys, What a show. 1006. I feel like I'm just starting start slotting you guys off for the entire Monday. And we're just gonna like rotate in and out between meals and stuff and just talk for nine hours, eight hours while the market's open. What another great show. We will. Obviously I'll be back tomorrow with the arch public guys, but another amazing macro Monday. Dang. I just realized I'm gonna miss it by like two hours. It's so annoying. But you guys will be here, right? You won't leave, you won't leave our. Our audience. You're better without me anymore anyways. Maybe we'll get Noel in here to civilize you gentlemen. Or we could get Larry in here too. Yeah, can we get someone else from Bloomberg? That's extremely bearish. A fourth like bear.
- [65:57]
Dave Weisberger
I'll be the referee in case you're watching.
- [66:00]
James Lavish
We have Larry on.
- [66:01]
Dave Weisberger
So Scott, you and I have been talking about. Oh, I think the first one should be me and Larry.
- [66:06]
Scott Melker
I'm ready. Let's do it. All right, guys, we gotta go. 1006. Thank you so much. My Dave has a money printer literally behind his shoulder. He believes in this so much. Guys, we will see you next week later.