Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets – "Bitcoin To Crash More? | Here Is When To Buy The Dip"

Release Date: March 12, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guests:

• Marcus Thielen, 10X Research
• Christopher Inks, Texas West Capital

1. Introduction and Market Overview

Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets, kicks off the episode by addressing the pressing question on investors' minds: "Is this correction over or is it not yet time to buy the dip? Is Bitcoin going to crash more?" [00:00]. He highlights Bitcoin's current trading status at approximately $84,000, up from a previous low of $76,500. Scott shares his personal investment strategy, revealing his long-term stake in Bitcoin purchased at various dips, including $77,000 [01:35].

2. Expert Insights on Bitcoin’s Future

Marcus Thielen’s Perspective

Marcus Thielen from 10X Research provides a cautious outlook on Bitcoin’s trajectory. He discusses several factors contributing to his prediction that Bitcoin might decline to $73,000 [02:44]. Key points include:

• Altcoin Performance: Ethereum and Solana are experiencing significant downturns, leading to reduced activity in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. Thielen notes, "revenues, fees on the Ethereum blockchain are, or ecosystem overall are extremely lows." [02:44].

• ETF Dynamics: The ongoing selling in the ETF sector is a major headwind. Thielen explains, "the whole noise about the Trump tariffs and what it means and the different stages." [04:27]. He anticipates increased market volatility due to tariff uncertainties, particularly around April 2nd when more tariff implementations are expected [04:27].

• Market Sentiment and Liquidity: With diminished stablecoin inflows and reduced retail participation, there’s a lack of fresh capital to support Bitcoin’s price. Thielen emphasizes, "nobody's really doing anything." [08:07].

Christopher Inks’s Technical Analysis

Christopher Inks from Texas West Capital delves into technical aspects, reinforcing the possibility of Bitcoin testing the $73,000 support level. He analyzes various chart patterns and indicators:

• Fair Value Gaps and Pivot Points: Inks points out yearly and monthly fair value gaps that signal potential support around $73,000 [21:10]. He states, "this is going to all but guarantee that the low is in." [36:48].

• RSI and Volume Indicators: Observing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and volume spikes, Inks discusses bullish signals that could hint at a reversal if Bitcoin closes above critical levels [37:31].

• Future Price Targets: Inks outlines potential wave patterns, suggesting that if Bitcoin breaks above certain thresholds, it could target higher levels, albeit with more conservative estimates compared to previous cycles [39:32].

3. Current Economic Indicators and Their Impact

Inflation and CPI Report

Scott references the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a 2.8% increase over the past year, slightly beating expectations [05:53]. Thielen interprets this as minor bullish news but warns that inflation remains above the Fed’s target of 2%, implying the Federal Reserve may not implement rate cuts soon [05:53]. This sustained inflation keeps the market in a state of uncertainty, contributing to Bitcoin’s volatility.

4. ETF Inflows and Outflows

A significant portion of the discussion centers around Bitcoin ETFs:

• Market Neutrality and Arbitrage: Thielen explains that most ETF inflows are driven by arbitrage strategies rather than genuine new investment, leading to substantial outflows as these positions unwind [14:45]. He remarks, "the market is really struggling and... nobody's doing anything." [14:45].

• Futures and Contango: The narrowing spread between next month and front month Bitcoin futures indicates diminished optimism. Thielen connects this to reduced yield opportunities, prompting ETF managers to withdraw funds [20:15].

5. Altcoin Market Dynamics

The guests analyze the poor performance of altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana:

• Ethereum’s Struggles: Despite upgrades aimed at reducing fees, Ethereum remains underperformed with minimal user engagement. Thielen notes, "nothing's really using it for DeFi right now." [24:33].

• Solana’s Decline: Similar issues plague Solana, which has seen a drastic decrease in token issuance and overall activity [24:33].

• Bitcoin Dominance: With Bitcoin's dominance now at 61%, funds are flowing back into Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins, underscoring the cautious market sentiment [26:12].

6. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Government Proposals

Scott brings up the concept of the United States potentially buying a million Bitcoins, a proposal supported by Senator Lummis [18:04]. However, Thielen expresses skepticism due to the lack of a clear strategy and evidence of actual deployment of funds. He underscores the market’s disappointment, stating, "there was no evidence that fresh money is being deployed." [18:48].

7. Technical Analysis and Price Predictions

Christopher Inks provides an in-depth technical analysis, highlighting key support levels and potential price movements:

• Support Levels: Identifies $73,000-$74,000 as critical support zones based on historical pivots and current chart patterns [36:48].

• Bullish Patterns: Mentions the presence of bullish engulfing candles and favorable RSI divergence, which could signal a reversal if Bitcoin maintains above these support levels [37:31].

• Future Scenarios: Discusses multiple wave patterns, suggesting that Bitcoin could either stabilize around $73k or experience minor fluctuations before potentially moving higher [39:32].

8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The episode wraps up with Scott reflecting on the paradox of favorable news yet declining Bitcoin prices. He emphasizes the importance of strategic buying at key support levels and staying informed through expert analysis. Thielen and Inks advocate for a cautious yet opportunistic approach, advising investors to monitor key technical indicators and macroeconomic factors closely.

Notable Quotes:

• Marcus Thielen [02:44]:
  "There's a lot of uncertainty with the ETF sector selling ongoing and tariff news creating more headwinds."

• Christopher Inks [36:48]:
  "If we can get above this $88,488 level with a daily close, that all but guarantees that the low is in."

• Scott Melker [18:04]:
  "It was time to refile this because she's finally getting the support that she's looking for from senators and from the House."

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s Price Prediction: Marcus Thielen anticipates Bitcoin may dip to around $73,000 due to ETF sell-offs, tariff uncertainties, and weakened altcoin performance.

• Altcoin Market Weakness: Ethereum and Solana are underperforming, leading to decreased activity in the broader crypto market.

• Technical Indicators: Critical support levels and bullish technical patterns could signal a potential reversal if Bitcoin maintains above these thresholds.

• Government Intervention: Proposals for strategic Bitcoin reserves face skepticism due to the absence of actionable strategies.

• Investor Strategy: A cautious approach is advised, focusing on key support levels and being prepared for continued volatility until macroeconomic factors stabilize.

Follow the Experts:

• Marcus Thielen: 10X Research Twitter
• Christopher Inks: Texas West Capital

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