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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
Is this correction over or is it not yet time to buy the dip? Is bitcoin going to crash more? Today's guest, Marcus Thielen of 10X Research, who you've seen here many times, has a very, very specific idea of a price point for buying the dip still yet to come. We're going to discuss that and so much more. Also got Texas West Capital, Christopher Inks on the backside to tell us what the charts are saying. Let's go, let's go. Let's do what is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and go ahead and hit that like button that is right down below. The question on everybody's mind, what is the crystal ball saying about the future of bitcoin prices and certainly about the future of these miserable altcoins that many of us are holding and suffering through? I think everybody can agree that this is one of those moments in time where markets hate uncertainty and the President of the United States States is handing us that in spades. People are confused. All markets are volatile and bitcoin obviously trading in the context of that. Going to go ahead and bring on Marcus right now. Good morning. How are you, sir?
- [01:33]
Marcus Thielen
Doing very well. How are you?
- [01:35]
Scott Melker
I'm good. Here we are with bitcoin. Let's just go ahead and take a quick look at the market to set the table. I guess we've got bitcoin trading at 83,950 right back up around 84,000. I'll take that as a pretty decent price at the moment considering we traded as low as 76,500. For full transparency, which I've shared. I bought the first dip when we went to 78, not this time at 82 and 79. Wrote it all the way up and back down below my entry of course, because it's an investment to my longer term stack. And I bought 77,000 on this dip. So that's kind of where I'm at. Obviously. Ethereum still just getting annihilated. Solana still pretty much getting annihilated. It's been very, very ugly for the altcoin market. But we've got an article right here. More pain to come in crypto. Bitcoin headed to 73k. That's the here is when to buy the dip from the title 10X Research. This is you, 10X Research. Marcus Thielen is not yet ready to buy the dip headed to 73,000 and they're giving you a hell of a lot of credit for being right, that this downturn was coming. So maybe you can tell us the context and what you're thinking and how you come up with that specific number.
- [02:45]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, thanks, Scott. I mean, there are actually a few reasons why we kind of came up with the 73 number. But, you know, as you said earlier, you know, there's nothing really going on with Ethereum. So nothing is going on in defi. You know, revenues, fees on the Ethereum blockchain are, or ecosystem overall are extremely lows. You know, gray fees, you know, gas fees are just like near zero really. So nobody's really doing anything. There's. And then really after the Trump inauguration, when the Trump coin basically took out a lot of retail investors at really high prices really here, when they really were squeezed in. And then the Trump coin is, I guess, 10, $12 today from 60 when most crypto changes listed it, I think retail has really stepped away. And I think we saw this, of course, in the revenue crash in Pump Fun, know, in the Solana ecosystem, you know, everything from radium, you know, has really come down a lot, so we don't actually seeing a lot of activity. So while even today's CPI number is probably quite, you know, favorable really and gives us some breathing room, so we're not going to make, you know, I guess a dip below 80k here. But I think there is still nothing really going on because we have, I think, two large forces. You know, one, we have, of course, the ETF sector selling. I think this probably is going to go ongoing. And then of course we have the whole noise about the, you know, the, the, the Trump tariffs and what it means and the different stages. And I think April 2nd is also like a big day really, that the market is looking forward because then they want to really ramp up the, you know, some of the, the tariffs really. Right. Right now there's a fight with Canada going on, but there are many other countries, you know, queuing up to, to really, you know, pummeled by him too. So.
- [04:27]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean, yesterday, yesterday we went from 25% to 50% to 25% tariffs in one day. I mean, how is anybody supposed. If you're a company in the United States or in Canada, you certainly have no idea what the hell to do on any given day. But how are markets supposed to react to news when the news changes every three or four hours and it's such fundamentally important news? I mean, steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada at 50% is just impossible to even price it. That happening if it, if it did, which it's not now, apparently.
- [05:02]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah. And I think the, the big pricing against China. So there has really been not a lot of retaliation, not a lot of back and forth. I think that's really sort of like the elephant in the room and that's probably what they're going to tackle in April. So we think there might be a little bit more headwinds just from the news flow stories that we're going to see.
- [05:19]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean you mentioned CPI. It happened today, right. So obviously this just happened 30, 40 minutes ago. CPI report today prices rose 2.8% in past year. Dow futures gained. So obviously the market is looking at this in some degree as good news if stocks are gaining initially, although sometimes that first reaction tends to be the wrong one. I mean were you watching this and what the expectations were versus what we got? I mean this an indication that inflation's going to be sticky. Is the job well done? You know, what are we looking at?
- [05:54]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, I mean, absolutely. I mean we are very, you know, focused on that number and of course, you know, anything below 2.9% would have been bullish, which it is. Right. It came out at 2.8. So this is like, you know, minor bullish here right now. But of course, you know, 2.8 is still very high. And I think we have already four cuts priced in by, you know, by the, you know, fixed income markets for this year which I think is still probably, you know, too dovish because I think the Fed is going to take that time but the number is still way above, you know, 2.0% basically. So they're not going to in a rush to do anything and I think we slowly getting towards the summer and I don't think we're going to see a lot of cuts before, you know, none at all basically and maybe after the summer because the Fed is probably going to wait until really, you know, a lot of those inflation tariffs, price hikes is going to come in and we don't even know where we are yet. Right. And I think when we compare the market to 2019, there were a lot of insurance cuts that actually the Fed preemptively took because of the worries that there might be a recession. But I think this time they're just going to stay put and going to be kind of pointing towards, hey, inflation is still very high, so we're not going to do anything. So I think the market is a little bit too optimistic around that.
- [07:10]
Scott Melker
So we've obviously got this bump in price that we discussed at the beginning. Right. We're to 84,000. For me, I see a lot of bullish signals that we could have bottomed or close 76,500 to 73,000 is a bit of a rounding error. Right. I mean you were calling 73 and getting to 76.5 for traders, I would call that a good call. Right. But you're still, I think viewing that we might likely have another dip coming. I mean right now, price, you know, just taking a look at the chart quickly, we're oversold on rsi. There's bullish divergence there for those who care on the daily. But we are struggling right here at the 200 ma. Right. And this is going to be a key, I think level for algos and bots and traders to take a look at if we close above or below that.
- [07:58]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, if you just look. Actually since the inauguration all the selling has really come during US trading hours. Right. So we just starting US trading hours. Right.
- [08:08]
Scott Melker
So 9:30am dip is like clockwork.
- [08:12]
Marcus Thielen
Exactly. Right. So I think this, this tells you a lot that you know, people that are trading US hours, probably US investors are taking off a lot of the ETF exposure and we think a lot of this is sort of like the basis trade that people unwinding because sort of the funding rates are, you know, really in single digits, they're really low. There's nobody's really making money on the arbitrage trade so why not take it off? And we think that's a huge, huge flow right now. And at the same time we're not really seeing any inflows through the stablecoin market. So we're not really seeing any on ramp happening. So anything that might happen, you know, in terms of positive, you know, liquidity environment or any anything else, it's really just not helping. Nobody's really doing anything. And I think goes back earlier what you said, you know, people actually sitting on heavy altcoin losses. So nobody really has a lot of capital here to just, you know, pump the markets. Right. We might get some, you know, short term, you know, oversold rallies but I think we still might actually grind a little bit lower into April.
- [09:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I'm going to bring up your slides in a minute. I just found this one kind of alarming or eye opening, I should say. As Nick says here, if someone had shown you this chart of the best and worst performing asset classes since Trump's inauguration, would you have believed them? Right. I mean it's down 46% since the inauguration. Bitcoin 25 Gold's up, Euro stocks are up, which I think a lot, and everything else pretty much like down across the board. So it's obviously been a very rocky road since inauguration. And then if you look even further back, obviously to the election, basically everything has erased all of the progress. Right. I know you've got a bunch of slides we can discuss on this as well, but it just hasn't been bullish at all yet.
- [09:54]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, and what we sort of like we're pointing out and of course many people looking at this kind of bitcoin versus global liquidity chart and of course it looks really compelling, right? But of course here you have moved global liquidity sort of like 13 weeks to the right, you know, and it would indicate sort of like April 14th that we are sort of like bottoming out. We are relatively close, right. As you said, we are sort of like a rounding arrow if you're calling for like 73. So we got to 78 something, right? Or you know, a little bit lower even. But we didn't really stay there, right. So ideally we want to bump around there a little bit or we suddenly have like a huge candle, right, A huge hammer, which we also not have seen. And that's why we sort of like ideally, you know, we just bump around, you know, and the other chart, of course, when, when you, and it's really like how you sort of massage the data, you know, when you're trying to make the chart look perfect while you're looking at the 6 week Bitcoin change here versus the 13 week change for liquidity and sort of, yeah, we should be closing in this window of this, you know, down move. But of course, you know, getting in here and suddenly losing confidence when we get to 75, you know, you might also get stopped out. So, you know, we would think better to just wait a couple of weeks probably, right, until you get more the Trump news out of the way before you probably then, you know, then jump higher. But you know, we would also a little bit be more a little bit cautious because when you look at the one year rolling correlation between bitcoin and money supply, yes, it's mostly positive, but it also is very weak right now. Right. So it only really works. You know, the first chart that I showed, when you really move liquidity 13 weeks forward, right. It doesn't really move one by one. So our view is really that the transmission mechanism from maybe favorable money supply is actually not causing the on ramp. Right. So what you actually want is that stablecoin inflow. Stablecoin market cap goes up because that actually means that money is coming into the market. But right now, no money is coming into the market. And that's really kind of like the freaky thing. Despite, of course, you know, liquidity could be potentially positive. Right. And one thing we were looking at, for example, you know, we're not calling for like a massive bear market here, but when you look at, you know, 21 and 22, Bitcoin was actually anticipating the change in liquidity, right? So bitcoin made the top in November 2021, and then liquidity actually kept on pumping until, like, July the following year, Right, because we had still quantitative easing, right? The Fed was hiking interest rates, but still doing quantitative easing and all these things. And, you know, sort of like bitcoin was trading not on liquidity per se, but on the anticipated liquidity. And I think right now, when you look for bitcoin, sort of like change the upward move around the December Fed meeting, this is also when the Bitcoin ETFs suddenly slowed down and were starting to see outflows. So I think big money is actually turning a little bit more cautious, really, since the Fed meeting, because the Fed has told you, well, we are not really dovish anymore and we just have to wait.
- [13:03]
Scott Melker
I wonder what's going to force the Fed to decide to cut. There's sort of these theories that Trump is causing maximum chaos and mayhem right now to crash markets to get the Fed to cut. I don't know.
- [13:15]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, I, you know, I, I, 100%, I, I totally disagree with that. You know, for the, for the reason, because you had, you had Trump, you know, you had this, you know, you had Latin and you had Scott Besson, and all three were saying, we don't care about the market, right? We don't, we don't look at the market. You know, the market is just a short term, you know, thing here right now. We don't really care. So I think that's really not the agenda. The agenda is really as Latin, I think, pointed out. This month it's fentanyl, and next month is other things they want to get rid of, really, and that's why they're pushing it through. So I don't think they're trying to engineer a recession because it would be very costly. I think that's really what hurt people. And I think we can go back in time, really, and show that the ETF flows really have really ramped up. When the Fed turned dovish when they did this emergency cut in September, that's when really the ETF flows ramped up. And I think what we're showing with this chart here is actually that based on our calculations, most of the ETF inflows are actually arbitrage flows. And, you know, we came up with a huge number of like 56%. But it's only that outright buying started sort of like in September, October, you know, towards the Trump election. And that's kind of where you see the error and that's where you see the bars. These are like real net inflows. But that's only like 12 billion out of the current 34 billion. Right. The rest, we think is a lot of arbitrage, selling or flows really, and that's why we're seeing this selling now from this unwinding.
- [14:46]
Scott Melker
So do you think we're then going to see significantly more outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs regardless of price right now? Or do you think that Maybe that's the 2 or 3 billion that we've seen over the past few weeks? Because it's been pretty astounding outflows. Right. Obviously, and pretty steady. And it, I haven't looked, you know, what happened Monday and Tuesday, but the last three weeks before that were, you know, a billion here, billion there, billion in a day. It's been a lot. But that doesn't, certainly doesn't get us from 12 billion to 34 billion. So there could be a lot more to unwind based on that.
- [15:20]
Marcus Thielen
So Monday, Tuesday was each, you know, nearly like 400 million. Right. So it's like the steady seller, there's somebody that keeps on selling. You know, I don't know how deep it's going to go, but obviously until this is done, you know, the market I think might be under pressure. Right? That's like one point. And you know, one of the chart, I mean, this, this, sorry, this, this, this chart here is like, you know, a week or two old. But it really shows you that the funding rate and these sort of like white bars, gray bars, versus the basis trade in this, in the purple line, they are below the sort of like the 10% hurdle rate. So right now I think the, the message is from the hedge fund community is like, hey, you know, the funding rate has compressed, so, you know, the trade is working as we wanted. Right. We sold the future, we bought the spot pocket. The arbitrage that we had, you know, earlier in last year or for example, around the Trump in inauguration from the election, that period, really, you know, they're pocketed and I think they're taking it off. And I think that's sort of like setting the. The negative news and the negative sentiment, Right? Yes, they are sort of like market neutral, but I think the market focuses more on the negative ETF selling as a headwind, really.
- [16:30]
Scott Melker
I mean, it's quite strange that we're in this situation where we have mostly good news across the board and price continues to drop. I mean, we get a strategic. By the way, those are like. That's a. I'm not saying we're in a bear market, but that's a bear market phenomenon. Right. When good news doesn't do anything to help price. I mean, strategic bitcoin reserve was the highest item possible on everyone's wish list for this market. Right. I mean, even just yesterday, we have Senator Lummis, for those who didn't see it, saying, Let me add it right here. Sorry, Senator Lummis saying that President Trump is behind her on her bill of buying 1 million bitcoin, which she refiled basically yesterday, saying that it was time to refile this because she's finally getting the support that she's looking for from senators and from the House. I mean, there was a time when the very idea that someone would say the United States could buy a million bitcoin would have said price up to 150,000 in the matter of a week. I mean, we have people literally saying that the United states should issue 2 trillion of bonds to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of bitcoin. The government is all over this. Right. I mean, the SEC has deregulated against this industry, dropped every single case. They dropped the. They just. The defi rule that was so oppressive and such a threat to the industry now gets bipartisan support being removed in the House and Senate. It's just crazy how much good news we have, and we're still sitting here struggling at, you know, low 80,000.
- [18:04]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, but the market wants evidence. Right. I mean, you know, he's been talking about buying the million bitcoins since July last year. Right. And no, so far, no strategy has been put forward, you know, except like a budget neutral strategy, you know, whatever that means. Right. I think they need to carve out some money. I think there are plans. There were plans, really, that, you know, Howard Latney could start a, you know, like an American sovereign wealth fund where basically, you know, people get taxed for one way or another, and that money is going to be used to buy some, you know, some bitcoins, really. Right. Or some other altcoins. So. But they haven't really followed through. And I think that's why the market is disappointed because, you know, there was no evidence that fresh money is being deployed. Right. I mean, just renaming confiscated coins is maybe not the right strategy.
- [18:48]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [18:48]
Marcus Thielen
I mean, of course, you know, the, you know, cynical, you know, Twitter, of course, would, would say, well, just go after the people who hold the bitcoin and confiscate from them. Right. I mean, we know some people have like 500,000 bitcoins. Right? I mean, find some dirt on them and then move, you know, those bitcoins into the reserve. But, but they, you know, but I think that realistically the market is looking for a strategy and so far no strategy has been put forward and a budget neutral strategy. I think that's a little bit really disappointed where people were expecting.
- [19:18]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I found this actually really interesting that I want to go back to your slides, but bitcoin CME futures spread slides to $490, undoing the Trump bump in bitcoin. So we've still got futures obviously in contango. I guess we should explain this, but the bullish sentiment in the bitcoin market following Donald Trump's election has fizzled out, as indicating by the narrowing spread between next month and front month bitcoin futures on the cme. I mean, in December, this was as high as, I think, $1,705 on December 17th. Now it's to 495. This basically means that there's a lot less optimism. At the most basic level, we're still in contango, meaning the futures are priced higher, but people are not expecting a huge rise, which is why that spread narrows. And doesn't this also sort of contribute to the ARB trade theory? Like, if you don't have markets massively in contango, there's no yield to gather by playing that carry trade.
- [20:16]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, exactly. That's why no fresh money is coming in, but also because this carry trade has actually compressed to the level where you say, well, now let's take it off. Because there's only like Treasuries. Exactly, right, exactly. There's only like a percent or two, you know, juice risk. Really, you know, in terms of, like, that you can really milk from the market and, you know, why not take it off? And I think that's what people are doing and that's why we're seeing these outflows. And I think that's why the market is really struggling and, you know, nobody's doing anything. And that's why, you know, the argument is also, yes, the CPI was, you know, mildly bullish, but if nobody is, you know, rolling the dice here, then it sort of like doesn't really matter. Right. It's maybe creating another opportunity for these ETFs to really sell into a little bit of more liquidity that we may be seeing today.
- [20:59]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I know you got a couple more slides. I would love to be able to finish going through those and then a couple more questions. So I brought up my screen so, you know, you can look at the ugly bitcoin chart, Ethereum chart there. But yeah, go ahead.
- [21:11]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, just very quickly. I mean, you know, the key trigger for us was this 92,800 level, which was sort of the level where really the short term holders have really, you know, had the average entry price. So once this was, you know, going down, bitcoin was going down with this level. People were sort of like, of course, freaking out and so, oh, I wish I would have like sold it. I wish I would have not bought at the top. So that's why this was like a strong resistance. And you know, when you remember like a week before, you know, Trump tweeted, you know, that it's going to be, you know, they're going to buy, you know, Cardano and all these things. And Solana, we had this big bump to like 94,000. And why did we see another wave there? Because the people who sort of like suddenly were underwater, they were happy to get out. And that's why we thought this is going to be like a big overhang. So we told people to kind of short this level again. And then, you know, just like the last two slides here, the one is of course, this sort of, that we have moved, moved into these like 16,000 sort of like brackets really. And since we failed at this one or 6,000 level, there was a sort of like, you know, diamond top formation that usually indicates that we're going to reset to the, to the lower support level, which is 73,000. But also we have this sort of like, you know, ascending broadening wedge. And we had like literally like a textbook example there. We have like a double top, you know, this wedge going up and then, you know, broken. And the measured move is sort of like the 73,000. And again, as I was saying earlier, I mean, this is from, you know, all my slides, so don't want to get too many here. But you know, we have to sell this negative news flow from the terrorists with everything, you know, we are a bit oversold. But I don't think big Money is going to come in here and buy. And I think we don't really see this in the stable coins. We don't see this from the liquidity side yet. And that's. I think we still want to be a bit cautious here.
- [22:56]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean, just, I mean, any quick look at this chart shows you obviously that, you know, there's a gratuitous level down here when we broke it in the first place. You're calling it 73. It's 73, 835 on my chart. So many things line up with that area. What makes me cautious that so many people have been calling for that area this entire time because it was the high for March, right. It's never been retested as support, but there's a lot of confluence. If we do dip that. That you're going to be right and that's going to be the area that it falls to. But like, you know, in my mind, from watching charts for so long, when you, when everyone wants 74, you either get like 69 on a big whip to liquidate or you bounce right above it at 76 and leave all those people behind to buy again at 100, you know, so it'll be interesting to see if we get exactly into that area. But I think from the time that you called this dropping into that area, like I said, I call you, right? You know.
- [23:52]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, let's see if you get there, you know.
- [23:56]
Scott Melker
Yeah. And so I think we've got cpi, obviously today. I think we've got the tariff uncertainty. Clearly, altcoins have been dropping dramatically. I mean, I showed that chart to show just how bad ETH has been. I mean, just take a look at this chart. This is like, I mean, this is like a Shakespearean tragedy. This is Ethereum bitcoin. I mean, it's like even when the market's getting a bump today, which, by the way, we're now seeing the dip coming into 9:30. It's, you know, bitcoin's down a thousand bucks since we started talking or something and just getting absolutely slaughtered. Now there is support here, but I mean, it's just what turns this around, you know, what makes altcoins interesting?
- [24:34]
Marcus Thielen
Well, you know, the theory was that, you know, once Trump, you know, becomes president because of his, you know, because of his, his DEFI protocol, his D5, you know, project, right? That has a lot of ease, right? And they have lost a lot of money with their ETH holdings that they have bought from the market. And, you know, every Eric Trump has tweeted a lot about, you know, Ethereum over the last couple of weeks. Really, that is a, it's a great buy, but it's almost like nobody is really using it for D5 right now. And I think when you look also that, you know, Solana has also been, you know, crushed. Crushed a lot. And you know, we're seeing this, of course, in the token issuance, the meme coin issuance really, that have, I think, you know, gone also down by 50% and pump found revenue is also down a lot. So I think we are just in a, in a very, very quiet period here right now. But just not many people are doing much because I think a lot of people, you know, unfortunately lost, you know, some money with Altcoins and you know, some of the money has of course gone back into bitcoin and that's why bitcoin is actually holding up almost like relatively well. Right? I mean, we can say, you know, 20, 25 down is the, is, you know, relatively strong, but it's actually making a new high for this cycle in the bitcoin dominance. Right. I think bitcoin dominance is now at 61. So I think this tells you that, you know, some money is going back into that. And I think that's why we sort of, if we get, you know, into the, the lower, you know, call it lower or mid 70,000 level, I think there will be more buyers there. I mean, I'm certainly going to be a buyer there and you know, just going to hold it then for, you know, for the next up move, which I think is going to happen then.
- [26:12]
Scott Melker
I just happened, as you were talking to look up on ChatGPT, so take it with a grain of salt. But I've seen this, discussed the World Liberty financials portfolio performance because obviously we know I reported last week they had I think 57% eth and then added another $10 million worth of eth the day that was reported and another 10 million of wrapped Bitcoin and some movement and some other things. What I'm seeing here is that their peak portfolio was roughly mid January and they were at about $410 million. Remember, they've actually added dry powder to that portfolio and according to this, it's currently at 80.18 million. So that's a drop of, I don't know, 88% in a matter of two months. So anyone who thinks that Donald Trump is somehow inside truck trading World Liberty Financial's portfolio, they could have bought Ethereum a lot cheaper if that was their intention, if they were Manipulating the market in some way, you'd think that they would have waited. So I think that, I'm not saying their portfolio will perform badly. I'm just saying that one of us, one of us, one of us just getting annihilated in the altcoin market.
- [27:27]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, but I mean, it's really difficult as you said, right. I mean, people are still asking, you know, what, what brings the Ethereum around, right. I mean, we, you know, we're still not hearing, you know, great things from the founder or something or any like of the, the upgrades that we're going to go through. You know, very soon there's another upgrade coming. You know, so far the upgrades have really been like all really marginal and like too late. Right. I mean the upgrade we saw literally a year ago, which brought the fees lower, was like six months too late because by then everybody has moved on, you know, to Solana. Right. All the meme coin activity, the issuance was on Solana. And I don't think there's any real sort of like use case, like really on the horizon, unfortunately. I don't want to sound like too negative here, but I think they really have really failed to find, you know, the right, you know, market niche. And I think it's very interesting with, you know, Solana has come also down so much. But you know, at one point it might be like an interesting, you know, case study again here because there's so much activity, right. And so many people have become comfortable with it, right. Issuing me coins there and everything and, and maybe doing some, some other things. So it's just really be going, I think the next kind of like week or two or maybe three still through consolidation period. But I think then it's sort of like the time to really look for, you know, for some bargains.
- [28:42]
Scott Melker
If I can just buy a bunch of stuff, assuming that I'm not working at McDonald's by then, but you know, if I can just buy a bunch of stuff in April and that's the bottom and it goes up, I'm perfectly happy with that scenario. Maybe I bought a little too early. You know, I don't think that buying 77, 000 Bitcoin is going to be a bad idea long term. You know, I think I'm going to be really, really happy with that. And to be frank, I still got some bids down to that 73.74. But 77 was kind of my biggest, my biggest bet, just in case.
- [29:13]
Marcus Thielen
Yeah, I mean, you know, 10 low. I mean, I think that's sort of like, it's like a daily move sometimes. Right. So I wouldn't worry too much about that.
- [29:20]
Scott Melker
So also, I mean, I'm about to let you go. I keep saying that, but I just happened to look at the bitcoin dominance chart and realize that yesterday was the highest close on bitcoin dominance we've had in this entire cycle. So we. Obviously it spiked back in February, that one huge spike up. But I mean, this is. It's pretty, pretty horrid for. For all coins out there. Yeah. The money goes into bitcoin, whatever money there is. Everybody give Marcus a follow. His X is obviously down below. I think it's 1010 x underscore research. Is that correct?
- [29:53]
Marcus Thielen
That's correct.
- [29:55]
Scott Melker
Really great analysis. Great seeing you quoted so much in the. In the media these days. And we'll see where price goes. Guys, give them a follow. Thanks so much, Marcus.
- [30:05]
Marcus Thielen
Okay, thanks. See you next time.
- [30:08]
Scott Melker
Awesome, guys. Before we move on, I'm reading your comments. They're hilarious. Apparently if you point out that World Liberty Financials lost money, that is a political statement on your politics. I would just like it to be clear that I do not identify as a liberal. I do not identify as a conservative. I identify as unaffiliated because I am not mentally handicapped. And I like to make my own decisions without putting myself into one or two buckets where I do not fit because I have a fucking brain in my head anyways. Yeah, see, look, he must be. Must be Scott. Must be a Democrat. Has to be. I am registered unaffiliated. Registered unaffiliated people. But we do have Aptos. Amazing. As a sponsor and very important news coming from them and from our close friends at Bitwise. I feel like Bitwise, like I work for them at this point. They're so amazing that like we have their guests on so often. Matt Hogan and Jeff park are here all the time. I've had Hunter, I go on crypto Town hall and we've always booked some Bitwise people because they're so amazing. But Bitwise has filed for an Aptos etf. Now, if you guys missed it, in November, they actually launched an Aptos staking ETP on the six Swiss exchange. So a similar product, believe it or not, actually already exists in Switzerland. But we haven't seen Bitwise file for so many altcoin ETFs. Aptos being one that they're extremely bullish on and looking to push. Listen, I have questions in my mind at the popularity of these ETFs as they go down like bitcoin obviously has the first mover advantage and will continue to be big, but I think as this market matures, it's going to be absolutely incredible to have products like this. And I was just really impressed that Bitwise chose to file for this Aptos etf. I hope that we get it. Great news for aptos. So you can check out down below. Obviously, everything you have about them Scoot is anti Kanye. Yes. If there's a political party that revolves around hating Kanye West, I've been in it since like 2000. Anywho, it's time to go ahead and bring on Chris and he can tell us actually if we're going to 73K.
- [32:34]
Christopher Inks
What's up, man? How are you doing?
- [32:37]
Scott Melker
I'm good, man. I'm doing politics over here.
- [32:39]
Christopher Inks
Hey, I see that, man.
- [32:40]
Scott Melker
You know, I pointed out that World Liberty's financials portfolio was down, and so I'm anti Trump.
- [32:49]
Christopher Inks
Well, you know, you got.
- [32:50]
Scott Melker
By the way, I'll go on a limb and say Trump doesn't even know that World Liberty Financial has a portfolio. So I can't be anti Trump. Maybe I'm just anti. Like, in that case, one or two of his kids who I am actually anti, like at a personal level went to college with and, and the people that they hired. But I, you know, I think the World Liberty Financial will do great, actually.
- [33:08]
Marcus Thielen
But.
- [33:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah, go ahead.
- [33:10]
Christopher Inks
Good times, man. Good times. Hey, listen, so, you know, at the end of the day, you know, I was listening in, you know, 78, 73. I mean, I'm, I'm like you, man. You know, that area is, it's coming, you know, from the, from the all time high there. It, it's pretty much the same thing. If we're looking on the chart here, you can see that the yearly pivot showing up here on the weekly. I mean, that's, you know, zoom in a little bit here. But that's where we're at at the moment. Here we have this large orange. If we jump out to the monthly time frame, we have this large orange fair value gap. And so, you know, we hit the discount side of that, you know, pivot said just below that. Jumping into the weekly, we have this weekly fair value gap again, just dipping this week into that discount area of that fair value gap. We're at the low volume node. We've got the pivot. I mean, my God, you know, if, if it kind of swings down there a few thousand dollars more. It's, it's not really anything significant. It's, you know, it's. It's this area that you're looking for it to hold, right? So what I've looked at here, and I posted this on, On Twitter here recently, was that the, the previous two large moves that we had to the downside, sideways movements, that lasted a while, right? So we had 2003 here. I'm sorry, 2023 and then 2024 in 2023 again, hovering around that pivot for, for that, that year. 2024, the. The R1 pivot of that year. And here we are in 2025 around the pivot. So that's the first thing I've noted on the weekly here, the RSI pulling back around that 44 level for previous two times here. And here we are again. And even if this was to dip down through this week, as long as the weekly kind of pulled up a bit, you know, again last week, we have the close right here. So we could dip this down this week and, you know, pull back up, say we hit 73 and then, you know, just bounce hard right back up. It still leaves us here. So there's a lot of, A lot of similarities between right now, what's going on now and what we saw with the previous two pullbacks, this bull cycle. And so, you know, people that are calling, you know, the crash coming in or whatever, I don't think so. You know, again, I continue to believe this is. Looks to me like it's corrective right now. You know, we're getting this, this weekly retest or this test of this, this spring here, and usually we'll get a higher low on that. We look for a higher low on lesser volume. Very occasionally you will get a lower low, which is what we got right now. So now we need to see how does the weekly end up? Does our volume end lower than what we ended here two weeks ago? You know, right. Right here. That's what we're looking for. But this has to kind of stick around this area. We can't go like way down here to like 70,000 or something because that's just too far. But you, you can get this test here moving just a bit below that spring, which is where we're at right now, and still be good. So, you know, macro wise, I'm still looking here, the setup is there. You know, we'll see if we can get it. We're jumping in here to the daily again if we do break down lower. So the first thought was a sweep of that low. Second thought was the S1 pivot here. That shows up on the daily time frame. So it's the monthly S1. It's right around 74, 000. So again, 73, 74, 000. It would make sense, right?
- [36:44]
Scott Melker
It's just too obvious.
- [36:49]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, yeah. I think. I think right now, you know, it's just a. Be a little patient. I think everybody's trying to always catch, you know, the absolute low or the absolute high, but, you know, rarely that, you know, that's something even professionals been doing this for 10, 20, 30 years. It's something we still rarely do. Right. To catch the absolute low or the absolute high. You know, the. The highs and the lows are actually, you know, ranges that develop the absolute high and the absolute low is just an event. And so if you focus on the idea that they're ranges, then that gives you opportunity. Right? And all of a sudden you don't feel so stressed out trying to do it. But we had a good candle yesterday. This is a bullish engulfing candle.
- [37:32]
Scott Melker
Bullish divergence from oversold RSI and stochastic there, as I'm looking at it, doesn't happen very often on the daily. Doesn't mean it can't build more. But, man.
- [37:42]
Christopher Inks
Yeah. The only two things I don't like about this candle is the volume wasn't greater than the candle that it's engulfing here. We usually look for that, and we have a large wick here that we didn't overcome as well. I would have felt better had this wick been lower here. We kind of engulf that, but, you know, so now here we are, you know, big long story short, guys, we're really just trying to get above this 88, 488 area. If you can do that with a daily candle that gives us an impulsive breakout. And close above that 88, 488. That's going to all but guarantee that the low is in, you know, whether it's here or drops down the S1 and then pops up. So, I mean, you know, if you're looking at this whole thing here, trying to catch the bottom, the. The absolute low, stop. Just look for that breakout. If you can do that, man, we're good to go. Now here's the thing. Here's the crazy thing. People don't want to hear this. So I was looking at this idea that, you know, we've got this three, we've got this four here. Would this be five? Sure. It could. It doesn't make a lot of sense in the grand scheme of things. And, you know, this really Kind of looks like, you know, like ABC up here. But if this is a three and this is a four and wave five usually overextends on bitcoin. We get a blow off top, right. There's a strong possibility this becomes a one and a two here. And here's the crazy thing, people don't want to hear this because it gets us all of those crazy numbers. But if this is going to be potentially from here we'll say up to here and here, one one and two of five. That gives us a three up here at 271 four.
- [39:20]
Scott Melker
I'll take it. 5500 and we're going to 70. I need to change the title. Let's go. Bitcoin says Chris Inks with definitive certainty.
- [39:33]
Christopher Inks
Yes. Actually what I was going to say was not with definitive certainty. But you know, I'm not saying that's where it's going to go or it has to go there. But what I'm saying is if we look at this as a 1 and a 2 and wave 5 giving us the blow off top we usually look at, that should be at least kind of where we're looking. And all of a sudden we get back to those crazy predictions, you know, we had a year ago, a year and a half ago, and people are like, oh, there's just no way, there's no way. And also it's look like maybe there's a way. And you know, it wouldn't be any different than previous bitcoin cycles other than it would only be like a 3 1/2x from here versus a 20x or something that we've had previously. So, you know, it's a lot less upside than what we would normally have. But you know, again, people get, you know, the, the, the bias to the, to the big numbers, right? And it's scary for them thinking about a hundred thousand or, you know, 200,000 or 300,000. And so, you know, I just put that out there some possibility. And of course, you know, obviously if we drop down a bit lower here, you know, 73, 74,000 to bring us down a bit more, maybe we only get 355. But it's, you know, if we catch a bid here and we start rallying up, we get above that, that 88, 488 level, you know, we need to look at that breakout higher. And really the only thing that would make sense is that this becomes a 1 and a 2 of that wave 5 on the way up. And so, you know, again, when we're Looking at the weekly, we'd be bouncing off that same level we normally bounce off at. And so, you know, we'll see what happens. It runs us all the way through the R pivots on the yearly here. So, you know, if we, we're coming in sideways between the R1 and the pivot, nothing surprises. Something I talked about so many times on your show and with other shows, with my show is this idea that when you move in sideways between your R1 pivoting your and your pivot and you drop down the pivot and you get that as support, you rally back up most of the time you're going to get through the R4, the R5 pivot on that time frame. So, you know, with 355 or 365 being just above R5 often we kind of blow off through the R5 again with the way things normally tend to work with pivot stuff like that. You know, we'll often get that. So. Looks really interesting. I. I can't say that I'm upset with bitcoin at all or what's going on here. You know, people are just kind of, you know, all in their feelings and you know, impatient. But you know, again, they were the same thing over here and they were the same thing, you know, back over here. Hell, they were the same thing. This little pullback right here as well. But that's, you know, that's, that's what human beings do. Right. We tend to get over emotional real quick here.
- [42:21]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [42:22]
Christopher Inks
DXY continues to look as I've been talking about. What was that?
- [42:27]
Scott Melker
I cried twice yesterday. Anyway, we get over Marshall.
- [42:31]
Christopher Inks
Yeah. So the DXY continues to look kind of like what we've been looking. You know what I was expecting. I got a lot of hate, of course on this web here talking about this probably being a top area pullback from dollar bulls. Well, here we are. I mean, you know, we're down from 100, 110 to a 103 here. Odds are we're going to continue down again. This whole sideways looks like a large, A large flat here. So coming down, this is going to be an A of B C will get us down there mid low 90s, potentially even lower. And so locally here, kind of looking for maybe getting a bounce here, but kind of getting down to this, this S1 pivot from the yearly. It shows up on the weekly and monthly time frames at about 102 and a half and kind of get us a bounce up, a drop down, a bounce up and then looking to get us our five waves finished here just below 100 to give us a wave one and we'll get a wave two and then three, four and five. So overall, you know, the dollar should continue to, to weaken versus other currencies which by the way, if you played the euro long against the dollar here, man, you had an amazing week last week, up almost 5% and continuing a bit further into halfway into this week. So it was a good play. You guys are talking about Ethereum, so, you know, I'm taking a look at Ethereum here. To me it looks like we've probably got a, a 1, 2, maybe a 3 with a flat is a 4 as a diagonal here coming up to a 5. So from the low we're at, you can see that the weekly RSI here is almost oversold. So you know, we could get a little bit lower. Right now we're bouncing here at the low volume node which would be expected if we continue down lower. Wouldn't be surprised to see maybe 1500 here get to this next low volume node. But based on this current height right here, we'd have about a wave 5 pattern target up there around almost 7,000. Doesn't mean it can't overextend and go higher. But right now this really kind of looks like a diagonal coming off here. So we'll see how it plays out. Overall, H bar is interesting. Again this, you know, this is three waves up, which means we should be looking for five waves back if it's a flat. So three waves down, three waves up, five waves down. You know, are we potentially complete right here? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Right there. Low volume node. I think it's possible. It looks like we got five up. Looks like we've got three down really deep though. So we want to be careful but not really hating it at the moment. If we jump in a little bit closer here, you know, I would be, I would start looking for a potential reversal around this 0.1964 area, but potentially lower than that. But at least around that area is where I'd start looking for a potential reversal to have on that. Again, like everything else, you know, these pivots are, are really kind of important here. Big picture is, you know, daily candle, impulsive breakout. And close above the pivot here, that shows up on the daily time frame at 0.234 would signal that that low is likely in and we're headed up from that. And you know, and that would mean that we're likely going to break out above here and continue up above $0.40 there. Xcn was another one we did really good at here over at the trading academy. We had a couple of good trades in this. We've got this pullback. It's a 38. 2 pullback right now. Looks like a fourth wave. What was that?
- [46:25]
Scott Melker
I said I don't even know if this. I know what this one is. I'm trying to remember what XCN is. It's funny.
- [46:30]
Christopher Inks
Oh, I don't even know. I look great here. We did some good stuff.
- [46:35]
Scott Melker
It's the beauty of charts.
- [46:37]
Christopher Inks
Yeah. So we got a 38. 2 pullback here. Looks like we've got a wave 4 pullback. We had again a bullish engulfing candle. You know, yesterday this one did have greater volume than the candle. It's engulfing. I like that. Almost engulfed the wick as well. But you know, again, daily candle impulsive breakout and close above this 0.022 should indicate that that low is in. Based on the height of this pullback here, that would give us a target. Actually, I think I've got it over here. Yeah, there we go. Of about a pattern target of about 0.12815. So you know, obviously significantly big push even once you're getting out above the this kind of 2 cent area here. Big target on xcn there. Super USD has been another. We've been watching for a bit once again here. Pullback looks good. We kind of hit this demand in here.
- [47:37]
Scott Melker
Yeah, it's kind of make it or break it right there.
- [47:43]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, yeah, exactly. So we're, you know, we're really interested in. Does this, you know, can we get this continuation or you could. I love the volume you can see here between the. The. The two last candles here. We had a spike of volume on the first one. We have this large supply spread here. Closed near the lows. Okay. Supply clearly in control. Next candle at support Doji closes higher than it opened. Bigger spike of volume. So more effort. Absolutely no result for supply here on that low candle. And that's what we like to. That's what we like to see, especially at support. So looking for this to kind of rally up here, you know, again, if you want to take the bigger picture. Daily candle impulsive breakout and close above 0.691 should indicate that we're likely heading out above this 2.28, 2.3 area up there, you know, and heading out higher. But if we zoom in a bit here, let's get down to one hour here. It looks like we may Be printing a diagonal here, which could or could not, you know, maybe be done here. But we'd be looking for this price to get caught in this wick right over here from Monday on the one hour. And so get caught it, you know, usually in the lower half of that. And then I want to see a pullback down here, you know, at least to about that point 0.41 area, potentially down here to the S1 pivot at about 0.40. And at that point, I'd really be looking for reversal on that. And then all of a sudden, you have a run up to this pivot showing up on the hourly here. So if we did something like that and pulled it down, or even if we're like, say, done around this area, they get you five waves right up around there, and things start really looking good at that point. So super is another one I've been watching. Swell. Looks interesting. Again, we have this large descending resistance coming down here. So that pivot, you want to see an impulsive daily candle breakout and close above 0.015. Doing that should indicate that we at least kind of get here about 0.05, but probably going to break out higher right here. Again, bouncing off that S1 pivot. You know, again, things we want to see. Bullish engulfing candle just about it actually opened up a little slightly higher than the low there. But, you know, the setup. We're watching the setup here. Are we going to set up to get that breakout? And so, you know, stochastic RSI just getting started here. RSI basically printing some bullish divergence at that support. So again, looks kind of good there. And finally, dot, we all know dot Right? Let me see here again, possible five waves up. Really deep pullback, though, so we have to be really careful. But we're kind of coming back right to the same kind of support level right there. Right there at the S1 pivot, we got some bullish divergence building up on that. Potentially reset and oversold daily candle. Impulsive breakout and close above 5.06 should indicate that that low is in and we're going to break out above. What is this? Swing high up here, 11.65, you know, and then head up higher overall. But, man, you know, this is. I don't know, you know, this is pretty close. We can maybe finagle a five out of this and a three on this pullback maybe, but it's so close here. We definitely want to see that breakout there to kind of get us going. So, you know, Again, as we've been talking about, you know, time after time, it's all about, you know, these alts are all kind of looking the same generally speaking, not every single one of them, but in general they're tending to look this way. So if we can see some of these daily pivot breakouts and closes, then that should signal that the, you know, alts are probably ready to rally. Does that mean alt season? You know, again, I think people are getting too caught up in that. There's been so many opportunities in the last year plus to make a lot of money with alts as long as you weren't waiting for all season. So you know, take your charts individually, look at them, run with them guys, if you don't need, if you don't know how to do that, you need to figure it out because otherwise you're going to be sitting around waiting for all season that may not come. Not saying it won't, but it may not.
- [52:07]
Scott Melker
So when I look at all these charts though, the risk reward at like key support. If it breaks, you just let it go. Small loss. This is kind of where, where you take your shot. So it looks really good. I gotta run. I gotta, gotta think of Ted, man. Thank you Chris so much everybody. Give TX West Capital a follow. Otherwise we will see you tomorrow and Chris and I next week. Thanks man.
- [52:29]
Christopher Inks
Take care.
- [52:31]
Scott Melker
Let's go. Let's do.