← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin To Crash To $88K? Charts Signal Massive Sell-Off! | Macro Monday
01:02:42
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- [00:02]
Scott Melker
Yesterday had the highest bitcoin daily and weekly close ever. A huge bullish signal, right? No, it immediately dumped right after the close, leading me to believe that maybe we have a local top here. I know usually these titles are about articles that we read and huge hyperbolic prices. Well, this one's on me. I think that bitcoin is likely going down. Probably means we'll be at 150,000 very, very soon. But I have my concerns and we're going to talk through all of that and more with the gentleman here on Macro Monday. Dave, James and Mike. Let's go, let's go.
- [00:53]
James
Let's do.
- [00:55]
Scott Melker
What's up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Going to bring on the gentleman right now. That move to me yesterday was so sketchy, guys. I mean we can break it down. I think we'll go into actually we'll do it later. I want to start with Mike. I have to tell you, Mike, I everything in me wanted to make the title Bitcoin to crash the 10k says Mike McGlone.
- [01:20]
Mike McGlone
I figured I'd get a smile out.
- [01:22]
Scott Melker
Of Dave, but I decided to be more measured, you know, and we can dive into why later. But let's start with the morning meeting and then, you know, on the agenda definitely we have the debt downgrade. 10 year treasuries making a new local high here, 4.56. We have a lot of macro to talk about.
- [01:41]
Mike McGlone
Go ahead, Mike. So first starting with the downgrade, Anna Wong said it's maybe political since it somewhat was. She said a lot of these measures and things from Moody's. Even a colleague, Ira Jersey said it's downgrade is meaningless. It's been on the radar for a while. Obviously in the market's been a trigger for people just to maybe stop covering shorts and hit bids and things. But honestly what they're excluding a lot is the potential revenue from the tariffs as extraneous, dogecoin costs as extraneous and potentially the cutback in government spending and government payrolls and things as extraneous. So her point is in bold magenta. Her point is the point is a House bill as it is is not a deficit buster. That's been a lot of people calling the deficit and it's a deficit buster if you include everything in it. So that's her bias all focused on that and she dug into details, but I don't think we need to do that. Ira pointed out that a lot of this sell off is just part of last week's rally. Downgrade just flipped it a little bit her his point was he specs a lot of leveraged and duration time managers expect to be significant buyers with that 30 or about 3% about 5% maybe can he said maybe can you go another 10 to 15 basis points. He thinks the duration people are really in here expect to set the debt ceiling to be raised and with plenty more T bills which means we'll have to manage that which is the exact opposite exactly what Treasury Secretary Yellen had to deal with and a lot of people criticized but now Besson's doing the same thing. Gina was still somewhat indifferent but her point is we had the worst first quarter for US stocks versus the rest of world in history. Operating margins are turning over as US corporates pay tariffs. The drop in oil prices is really hurting energy profits but it's generally pretty good for the rest of the market. Audrey Child Freeman who our FX strategist pointed out she's structurally bearish the dollar and key thing she's worried about is more downgrades in US debt data market data and my view my focus was on gold. Gold is pretty significantly supported around 3000. Last year's high was right around 2800. So it's hard to get bearish here. Just a little bit overbought significant resistance about 3,500. And I pointed out for crude oil last year's low WTI was $65 a barrel and kind of hard to get in some decent bear market. It's hard to get bullish unless we can stay above that level it's more likely to go to 55 or lower. That's been my call for too long. And then I focused on the bitcoin to gold ratio. I know Dave loves when I talk about that one. I don't want to team off too much but I just been pointing out I think it held pretty good resistance about 33 and it bounced from 25. And I think the risks are heads lower as gold's proving it's the risk off and bitcoin's proving it's a risk on and right now we're seeing more of a bias towards a risk off market.
- [04:40]
Scott Melker
That's the bitcoin gold ratio. So yeah digging into one of those topics here. I just wanted to show that quickly. But James, you wrote an incredible newsletter as usual and the information is here this weekend. U.S. debt downgraded again. Our treasuries becoming junk. This is the inspirational Tweet, which we can dive into. But, yeah, we don't have our AAA status. Right. Got the data.
- [05:07]
Dave
I mean, everybody knew that. Yeah, this is. It's kind of. Is it. Is it just symbolic that we finally had Moody's admit that the US Debt is not aaa, it's not prime. I mean, this is what's so crazy about this. We're talking about the global reserve asset, and it's not prime. I mean, that is a problem. And what that's telling you is that the entire world is waking up. The fact that this whole debt system can't go on forever. We can't just continue to raise leverage forever with our deficits running at nearly 7% of GDP. Moody's is now concerned as well, and it's a little bit late for them, but the answer to the question is, no, we're not junk status. That's below triple B minus. So investment grade versus junk is a massive jump. But it begs the question of where are we headed? And the answer is, eventually we will be headed to junk if we don't rein in spending. And that's what every single official has been telling the Treasury, I mean, the Congress, for years and years now. They're like, this is unsustainable. Every single chairman of the Fed or the SEC or the treasury is just saying, like, this is just unsustainable. We can't keep going like this. We've got to rein in the spending. And so what you're seeing is across the board, Mike, you can see on your screens that the treasury, the longer duration Treasuries for all the major countries, the developed world are rising. The yields on them are rising today. And that's because of unrestrained fiscal spending. And it's starting to concern investors, and they're starting to be concerned that they're not going to get a real rate of return on that long end of the curve. And so they're demanding a larger. They're demanding a larger return for that, larger yield, for that. So that's the crux of all this, is that it's clear that fiscal spending is completely out of control. And we've got to rein it in at some point here in the near future because the growth of debt is going parabolic. And so eventually, I think. I agree. I think, Mike, you said that about 5% is kind of the. That that's kind of the magic point where. Where investors will step in. I think that's right. But I also think that the tenure can get there, too.
- [07:45]
Scott Melker
The tenure I was gonna say 5% on the 30, you're saying. Which is where we are.
- [07:49]
Dave
Yeah, yeah, we're, we're at four point, we're at 4.55 on the, on the 10 year now, which is a 2% move. A 2% move in the, in, in the global, the global reserve asset, the benchmark treasury of the world is just mind boggling. These things are whipping around like this. So that's one thing. The other thing is, I mean you're looking at risk and I saw you pushed down to the bottom of that newsletter, Scott. And we're looking at the credit default swaps on US Treasuries. And here's a crazy thing, and actually I'll bring up. Let me stop sharing this part of the screen and I'll share this other one. But what's interesting about this is that the US is the, the US Is now rated. Can you see this?
- [08:45]
Scott Melker
Yep.
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Dave
Okay, so now you see the U.S. this is $60,000 for every $10 million of cds that you have on. So if you have a credit default swap to hedge against $10 million of US treasuries, you're spending 58,440.
- [09:03]
Scott Melker
That's high.
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Mike McGlone
Right?
- [09:04]
Dave
Per year to, to, to ensure that. Right. It is high because you can see here, let's go to the five. Let's go to over the last year, this is where it's been on average and here it is now. Okay, well, you know, honestly it was, it was quite a bit higher than that in when we had the crisis. Let's go back to 22. Oops, sorry. Let's go back to 22. You can see that the average was still here. But I mean look, we, this is where, this is where we are now. Look at all the other countries over the last, you know, three years. This is, we are, we are pushing up against that limit again. And why is that? It's because we have, we have no budget. We don't have a, we don't have a debt ceiling. And so everybody's wondering, are we, when does that run out? When do the special measures run out? Well, Treasury Secretary Descent said on, I think he said on Friday or Saturday that they, they, he can keep this going until August and then that's it. So you've got this new tax package that will add about $4 trillion to, to, to the debt for the next whatever. I think it's seven years or 10 years. Is that right, Mike? So I can't remember what the, what that measure is, but it's $4 trillion is the ad that's number one. And then you've got. Basically what's happening here is investors, they're hedging against an unruly market that possibly gets tripped up or that we have some sort of technical default like we did in 1979. But we just didn't get the budget pass. We tripped in a payment and because back then you were, you were putting stamps on envelopes and they just didn't have enough time to get the payments out. It was like a, it was a technical default really. And they, they made everybody whole a few days later. But you know that, that is something that investors are concerned about and it's not a zero percent probability. It's, you know, it's, it, it's a non zero probability and that's what you're being told here. But what's crazy about this, Let me just zero back in on this. Here's what's crazy about this. Right now. It bonds in the U.S. okay, U.S. treasuries are deemed riskier than every single major European nation here. Look at this.
- [11:33]
Scott Melker
That's crazy.
- [11:34]
Dave
Even Greece, Greece is at 57.
- [11:38]
Scott Melker
Because they already did their austerity.
- [11:40]
Dave
Yeah, done their austerity. They've already, they've already quad, defaulted on their debt back in 2015. Right. So, but that's, that's where we're at and that's concerning. So what does that mean for the bond market? Well, here's, here's what we're seeing and this is, this is what gets to Mike's point is that we're seeing a demand for term, you know, term premium going up. For, for. You can see this one, right? Yeah, you could see this. So you, you see the term premium going up meaning this is the amount of yield that investors are demanding above what they normally would because of risks. And so this is basically what the term premium is for the 10 year. Again, what's mind boggling about this is that we're talking about the benchmark treasury of the world.
- [12:38]
James
Hey James, can I ask a dumb question? So if the, if the debt seal, I mean, what is the trigger for the CDS to actually pay? Is the CDS triggered to actually pay, that people who hold U.S. treasury bonds don't get paid their interest and premium? Or is it a technical default where theoretically we have a day or two where they screw up on the debt ceiling and there's an issue because that to me matters. I mean the former is.
- [13:09]
Dave
It's up to ISDA to decide what, what is the trigger ultimately. But if you Trip. A, an interest payment. That's a default.
- [13:18]
James
Sure, I understand that.
- [13:20]
Dave
Yeah.
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Scott Melker
So.
- [13:21]
Dave
And even if it's technical, you know, it's a default. So.
- [13:24]
James
So that's. Right.
- [13:27]
Dave
That's the issue. That's really the issue. It's not, it's not that people think that the, that U.S. treasuries are gonna, that. It's not that, that that investors believe that U.S. treasuries are going to, you know, be defaulted on. Like the treasury is not going to make a payment. They're good. They're going to, you know, take a haircut on them or something like that. That's not what's happening here.
- [13:44]
James
But it is, that's what I think.
- [13:45]
Dave
It's a risk. But if you. Yeah, but here's why. Okay. It's not just that people think they're not going to get paid an interest payment or, or they're, or their, you know, their. The problem is. Hey, Eric.
- [14:03]
Scott Melker
Sorry guys.
- [14:05]
James
Are you up in New York today? Mike, that's awesome.
- [14:10]
Dave
So the problem is you've got all these, you've got all these investors who need those treasures are counting on getting their, their basis back and their, their, their interest payments. And if they don't get them, then they're going to miss a payment for something themselves. And so that's what, that's why they have this, these CDS on them. Primarily. It's because they're gonna, they're gonna trip up a problem. They're not, it's not like they're, they're not going to be made whole. Of course they are. But they may take a few days and a few days in Wall street is a lifetime if you're using your Treasuries to borrow against. So that's, that's one of the, that's one of the problems. So it's not necessarily that people think they're going to default. It's that if they do, even for a day, then it could be catastrophic for their own business and they need to be paid to, to be able to.
- [15:01]
James
Yeah, no, I understand, but I, but I, it. The reason I asked the question is because, I mean, look, if, if there's anybody on the planet who thinks that there, that, that the UK is less likely to default than the US if you. Then they haven't looked at the fiscal situation.
- [15:17]
Dave
This is just a north. This short term. It's just short.
- [15:20]
James
Yeah, yeah, no, no, I understand that, but I, I just want to make sure our listeners or viewers understand that that's what we're saying. Because this is one of those cases where Mr. McGlone and I are 100% in agreement. You know, it's just, it's just very, very different. But look, you know, there is, there is something that did happen this weekend and that is going on that does matter. And it is very, very clear that, that there is no, not even a risk of this administration being able to bring the budget into what anyone. And it's very, very, very clear, meaning that anybody who was waiting to, you know, thinking that, that Bitcoin or gold were going to have a head, face headwinds, because we're going to be spending less and our budget deficit was going to start, we're going to go to a positive, you know, we're going to go to a surplus and it's going to bring down the debt. Anybody who thinks that no longer can think that. And in fact, the, the, the, the pivot, and it was a soft pivot rhetorically, but it does matter from Treasury Secretary Bessant is that we need to grow our way out. Now, not to be snarky, but you guys have heard this before from a certain person who likes to use funny backgrounds and wear shirts to promote their home basketball team, that the only way out of the budget deficit issue is really through deregulation and causing dramatic increases in gdp. The problem is a lot of the regulation that hurts factories is state, local. So they're kind of in a bind. And you know, I don't want to go. I actually disagree with, with, with your partner, Larry, that there'll be a big print. I think it will be a building print that will eventually become so large that people see it and, and that's what's going on. I don't think it's a one off thing. I think it's a, no more like a wave than, than a boom that.
- [17:20]
Dave
That would be holding all things constant. But we could have an issue here where you have, you have, you have disruption in the treasury market and that will cause, that will cause a massive pr. You will need the Fed to step in. That's just, I think the Fed is.
- [17:35]
James
Going to be stepping in far sooner than you think.
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Dave
I agreed. I, I do agree.
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James
Yeah, yeah, that, that's really the point. The point is that all roads lead to monetary debasement here.
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Scott Melker
But Mike, do you think that the Fed steps in faster than we think? Because right now, now aren't we pricing basically a quarter point by December?
- [17:53]
James
No, no, no. Let me be clear, Mike, before you answer. I'm not talking about rate cuts. I got talking about liquidity. The two are different.
- [18:02]
Dave
Talking about a 2019 like a 2019 repo crisis type of liquidity event where they, they step in immediately if they won't even they will not hesitate or.
- [18:11]
James
BTFD from response to Silicon Valley or whatever it is. Yeah. Now, now you can answer. Sorry, I just want to make sure you're answering the right.
- [18:21]
Dave
Scott I shared the, I shared the screen on the, just the, the chart of the five year CDS just to see like this obviously took, you know, the tariff stuff was happening and this tax package was coming to you like this. That's, that's people's concern. It's obvious that this wasn't, this wasn't just like a grad, you know, gradual increase. This, the, it shot up overnight. So just FYI.
- [18:44]
Mike McGlone
So and one thing I do enjoy is piggybacking a little bit when Jamie Dimon says about when US gets downgraded. Every country that has a higher rating is based on the protection of U.S. security, U.S. military and virtually every one of those countries runs massive net exports with the U.S. so okay, we know it's getting fixed now at least the new administration is making efforts to cut back on that. So to me that's the macro bigger picture. This 5% long bond is part of the problem. I think you can't have as James so eloquently described as the US riskless securities ratcheting up like this without major problems. And the thing about the Fed is here's my point. I think we've reached that massive endgame of what's been really appreciating risk assets since the Fed put started in 10-19-1987 is they can't ease anymore because they ease too much Risk assets are going up and gone up way too much as the key point. Gina Marta Adams Their US risk stock markets are just way too elevated created all that inflation can't ease because we have too much inflation. Why do we have too much inflation? Because ease too much. We created too high. We have way too much fiscal stimulus lift risk assets too high. This is the end game. But part of what really accelerated this whole thing was 2009 is when cryptos were born and they rode that way up. And this to me is my macro big picture. That's why I was willing to put that number on how risky these things are. Now when we get this capitulation which is just a matter of time, hopefully it's not going to be that bad. But here's where we stand right? Let's see if we end the year right now we have gold up 23%, crude oil down 13% S&P 500 basically unchanged and Bitcoin up about 9% and most crypto indices are down. So that's a risk off year yet. The key thing about this is bond prices have been yields are higher. It's where do we end the year now? And to me that's the key thing that matters is the tilt. We've all seen this bounce in risk assets. The thing is it can't compare to any other bounce. The most significant comparison was Q1 first half 2020. But what created that bounce mask of fiscal monetary stimulus here it's the opposite. So this to me is a classic short cover and rally. And everything that matters now is if the US stock market can keep these gains. And to the risks are from that time end of 2019 we rallied the S&P 500%. Just giving back 20% of that is nothing in the big picture. But it's a really big significant deflationary factor that I think we're seeing that gold's figuring out and that gold bitcoin ratio is figuring out. So looking forward it's now about how do we end today. I think what's going to happen now is when we start heading lower in the stock market that's going to prove that even Dave said happened a lot in cryptos that was shortcoming rather than something to push it back up and we head towards that normal recessionary, deflationary recession. We never got 2023. To me that's the macro that matters. And the key thing to see here is we're in a lose lose situation. Bond yields are spiking and as economy is declining and slowing down, which is a known known if you just look at most of the other data in terms of defaults on auto loans and profits and margins and things this is a lose lose but where does it stop? So I look at to me the next big trade is everything heads lower. And the thing is what's the most significant leading risk assets on the planet are cryptos. So far as the Fed. One thing I'll end with is the Fed's out of the picture right now. I think the next what you should expect from the Fed is the next not 25 basis points. When they ease, they ease 75 exactly. That's my thought is and that's the problem. It's going to take the market to go down to do that. These are things we spoke about over a year ago when they started easing with risk assets on a, on a, on a tear. Now we're all stuck. We all realize, and we're not stuck if we take profits and books on those profits. And this is what I'll end with this. This is what's happening. Most of what I'm hearing everywhere is institutions are selling dollar assets, mostly equities, on rallies and a lot of Americans are doing what they can to take those really expensive assets and offshore.
- [22:46]
James
So a couple things here. First, you're starting to hear, you know, even in your statement, a very important distinction and that is Bitcoin and crypto. And you know, and I want that to be clear. I got a lot of hate last week. I was on multiple spaces and people were like talking about Ethereum. And I'm sitting here and I said, listen, I think that it was, it hit almost 0.25, you know, 0.025 on the ether Bitcoin ratio. And I said, I think this is the top for a while. And I got all sorts of hate from everybody yelling at me. What are you talking about? And my reasoning is that Bitcoin will outperform Ethereum for the rest of this year. I think it was the top. I think bitcoin will lead higher if we get a bull market and I think we could get a bill market in dollars because it'll be the dollar going down, not so much the others. But there's two points here. Point number one, that whether it's Ethereum or Solana or Chainlink or anything else for that matter, they are risk assets. There's no question they're risk assets. They are speculative technology based assets that are going to be worth a lot more money as a group, in my opinion, in 10 years time as the, as more and more use cases gets here and people are speculating on who are going to be the winners and they're looking at the total addressable market and they're saying, okay, got, my God, this is cheap. This is getting in early. This is like buying Cisco back in the early 90s. Okay, cool. But to say that they're not risk assets is literally the height of insanity. You know, we know their risk assets now that, now let's talk about Bitcoin. You're, you mentioned Jamie Dimon. You opened the door for me, thank you very much. JP Morgan even came out with a report saying Bitcoin will outperform gold. But, but the two of them will both outperform everything else. And their reasoning is the same as my reasoning. And, and that is, is that we are inflating the value. We are. Are debasing the dollar. And if you don't think corporate profits are going to go up in that environment, then what do you put your money into? You put your money into gold. You put your money into Bitcoin, because that is. Is. Is. Those are both assets. That's their investment case. Now, you might believe bitcoin is priced right now for a 90 chance of failure. And I want to repeat that because that's. That's important. Bitcoin is priced at, you know, relative to where. To the market cap of gold. That is clearly the monetary premium. Bitcoin is priced as if there's a huge chance that it will fail to become that. That global store of value. And let's do it.
- [25:26]
Scott Melker
That's accurate. Correct? If you're saying. Listen, are you saying.
- [25:29]
James
I'm saying that's how it's priced.
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Scott Melker
Okay. All right.
- [25:31]
James
I'm just saying.
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Dave
He's basically saying that if you believe it's going to become the global. That. That global asset, that it has to surpass gold.
- [25:40]
Scott Melker
Right, of course.
- [25:41]
Dave
Well, yeah, it's a million dollars. Very, very cheap.
- [25:44]
James
Right. So it is priced as if the likelihood is that it will fail. And yet there is a lot of smart money, including the insiders of the President of the United States who believe that it will not fail, that it will eventually succeed. And so can I ask you a question?
- [26:01]
Scott Melker
I'm sorry to interrupt because you're making a great point, but I just for people listening, you're not saying bitcoin fail as in go to zero, but it's failed to become the global reserve asset.
- [26:11]
James
Because bitcoin can be very niche product for techno nerds.
- [26:14]
Scott Melker
It could be extremely successful, continue to go up and not catch gold, and become the global reserve asset. So it's.
- [26:22]
James
I'm not so sure that that's true, but I think that the value of bitcoin as a niche techno nerd asset is dramatically lower than the value and probably lower than where we are today. That. That is Mike's scenario. The scenario of $10,000. Bitcoin is a scenario where people. Where bitcoin is viewed as MySpace. Right. You know, bitcoin is viewed as something that failed. It was an anachronism and it never got there. It never got critical mass.
- [26:50]
Dave
The truth is.
- [26:51]
Mike McGlone
You finish yours, because that's not.
- [26:52]
James
Well, well, no, no. That is my interpretation of what it would take for bitcoin to drop at that point, based upon the data that we're seeing, based on the Fact that since November we're in a, in a 20% range. And in the last 11 days we, 11 days in Bitcoin is an eternity with all this shit going on in the bond market. Bitcoin has been in a $5,000 range, actually slightly less, you know, for almost two weeks. That is, that is in, you know, bitcoin has been less volatile than pretty much every single one of the Mag 7 and, and, and you know, less volatile than a lot of other assets. It's, it's kind of crazy at this point. And the reason is the, the, the, the, the, it's stuck between a rock and a hard place. In this particular case are long term buyers who are just scooping it up as people panic, sell it to them. And the hard plays are the speculators who every time they think this, it's going to be this time they jump in like they do on a Sunday. And of course they run up and they're like Wiley Coyote, they go up over the chasm and boom. Now all of a sudden there's the patient buyers didn't follow them. And so boom, it's right back down to where it is now. To me, bitcoin is gaining critical mass from an adoption point of view for this particular type of assets. When you have JP Morgan making the call, it is, it is fairly clear to me that that's what's happening. So that's why I look at this and, and we should talk more about the technicals of what's going on. But here we have a situation where, you know, you have, we have to look at the University of Michigan from last week. You talk about, oh my God, one of the most outrageous things we have ever seen in data is that there is now, when you look at inflation expectations and you look at economic expectations, we now have a 10% difference based on what political party you have now. What is that telling you? It's telling you that the media is telling, is screaming two different narratives. And so if you wear a blue T shirt you believe MSNBC that Trump is destroying the economy. And if you wear a red T shirt you believe FOX News that it's going to be a American nirvana.
- [28:57]
Dave
And by the way, they only, they only survey like 6 or 700 people continuously. This is not a very large data group. This is insane. Looks at the Michigan indicators, which I've written about this. I was actually on Fox, one of the things that Charles Payne brought me on Fox News to talk about, they were blown away that this Michigan survey, I mean it's a few hundred people. It's literally like a blade of grass on an entire football field of Americans.
- [29:25]
James
And but it's, but it's so obviously politically biased. I mean, Mike made the point earlier. Well, I think that the Moody thing might be politically biased. No shit, Sherlock, no shit. You know, it's like we have the most polarizing president in history and you have, and the divide and the fault lines are all over the place. And look, this wouldn't happen under any other scenario. I mean, everything is getting politicized these days. And so when we look at economic data, the only thing that's not politicized is to some degree is money managers are like, well, okay, where am I putting my money? And do I really think that this economy is in constant dollars is going to go down? I mean, and that's really the issue. The issue is dollars. I mean, I was in London trading Italian equities when the Italian market got devalued against the pound. And I will tell you that it stamped an indelible mark on my memory. Okay, I'm old, this was in 1992. So let's, let's just get that out of the way. I wasn't in a trading pit before the euro, before the euro. So I was sitting there and what happened that day was one of the most interesting things ever. People started off thwarting Italian equities and the day ended with the largest single one day gain in Italian equities ever. Now in, if you held it in any other currency, they were effectively flat by the end of the day. But the, but the year, but the Italian lira was d. Was devalued effectively by 20% and Italian equities were up 20 some odd percent in the same day. So if you're calling for a maximum.
- [31:08]
Dave
Emerging market kind of stuff, by the way.
- [31:10]
James
Yeah, exactly. But I mean the point is, is that it's still a pretty major economy. At the time it was even larger relatively in the world. And if you understand that, if you believe that the US dollar is effectively being devalued, you have to understand that the stock market will move in inverse to the same magnitude of that devaluation. And that's something that people need to understand because Bitcoin will do so and do so without the drag on earnings that is dragging it down in the first place. And so that's why I look at it differently. Anyway, now I've gone on and so I'm not going to say I'm going to end here until I end so I'm now going to end.
- [31:47]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Before Mike, I want you to kind of clarify the case there. But I think Dave did a pretty good job of saying that's not what you were saying. But Dave, my question there, I guess I remember when gold was 12 trillion, 13 trillion. Right. And there was this argument that bitcoin would have to rise to 8 or 9 and gold would probably come down and they would meet in the middle and bitcoin become a global reserve asset. That was pretty much consensus for bitcoiners. Now you have big gold at what, 22, 23 trillion? 21, right. Yeah, 21. Because a million dollars of bitcoin.
- [32:18]
Dave
Yeah, not a lot of, a lot of that is just on people's risks. And.
- [32:25]
Scott Melker
I think what I'm getting at like, so let's say bitcoin's a million dollars a coin. So let's forget lost coins, all that 21 trillion dollar market cap. Okay, but can't gold be 40 trillion at that point and bitcoin still wildly successful? I just don't understand. The gold has to become the global reserve asset.
- [32:44]
James
No, I think. Or else it's my really, really, really, really great point, Scott. So here, here's my base case. My base case is gold does go to 30 or 40 trillion and Bitcoin joins them at somewhere like 20, you know, basically at 80 to 90% of gold. And because at the end of the day, neither are close to where gold was in of actual financial monetary assets. You know, gold is being owned by central banks. It's going to be years before central banks think the major central banks think about investing in anything other than gold as, as, as a backing. Now a lot of smaller countries are going to move into bitcoin first because they're going to try to leapfrog. They're already doing it. Right. You know, we're seeing. But you know, do, does anyone in the G7 really care about El Salvador and Bhutan and others? They won't care unless the United States decides that we need to diversify our holdings and, and we'll see what happens there. I, I will be, I, I will continue to say, I will be stunned if the United States sells gold. I will be stunned. I mean, the last major country to do so was the UK and so it's actually kind of funny that the UK once again is saying what they're saying about bitcoin. I mean, Gordon Brown sold gold at 277. Was that the number? It was under 300.
- [34:03]
Mike McGlone
Didn't work out so well.
- [34:05]
James
No, it did not work out too well, which is which. And, and so like the UK in financial circles has been wrong and pretty much every major decision they made, you know, since the Empire, you know, kind of more or less.
- [34:16]
Scott Melker
Oh yeah, there was that whole pound was the global reserve currency thing.
- [34:20]
James
Well, I mean look, that was because of a mercantilist economy which you know, the world war is basically eliminated. That isn't their fault. But selling gold at that time was just such a unbelievable, just unbelievably stupid trade. But no, I think that when you look at the monetary premium of gold, it's really obvious. I mean my wife, you know, the engagement ring that I had bought her, you know, at our 10 year, you know, anniversary and we're going to be 36 in, in a few weeks, was platinum with diamonds. And at the time, platinum was double the price of gold.
- [34:52]
Mike McGlone
Yeah.
- [34:53]
James
Now platinum is less than, almost one fourth the price of gold. If we could, you know, a 1.3.
- [34:58]
Scott Melker
Something or other golden England on that ring, dude.
- [35:01]
James
And, and the reason, the reason that that platinum is, is less than one third the price of gold, Even though it's 30 times rarer, is because of monetary premium. And that monetary premium isn't going anywhere. And bitcoin is, is getting a higher and higher percentage over time of that monetary premium. And so that's why, you know, even, even she got it. Got it. It's a great way to, to help orange pill women by the way, or jewelry people or Indians who love gold.
- [35:30]
Dave
Yeah, exactly. So here's, here's, here's, here's the today's point and, and what we believe and what we're talking about. This is Jesse Myers. He does a lot of work on this just to determine what the universe of investable assets are in the world. So now we're at 1, quadrillion of investable assets in the world, which is 1,000 trillion. Okay, so what we're talking about here is yeah, gold could easily double and that and this whole chart. Double. You know, it could be two or.
- [36:09]
James
Or James, if you look at the box on the right money.
- [36:12]
Dave
Exactly.
- [36:13]
James
There is nothing. Nothing, nothing. And I've talked to Jesse about this and he agrees. There is literally nothing stopping gold plus bitcoin equaling that box on the lower right. And if you think that box in the lower right isn't going to grow over the next five to 10 years and grow fairly substantially, then you're smoking something.
- [36:34]
Dave
And that's an assumption that it doesn't start taking that gold and bitcoin don't keep eating into the bottom left and the middle box on the bottom because at some point, first of all, people are waking up to. Real estate has been a tremendous store of value for long term investors forever. That's why we got into such a problem in 2008 is because investors like well, real estate never goes down. Well, that's right. Until it does. But here's the thing is that you start hearing people and it's a very, very, very, very small minority of investors still who think this. But it is growing that people realize that God, if I just buy bitcoin and hold it or gold, then I don't have to deal with tenants, I don't have to deal with maintenance costs. I don't have to deal with the illiquidity of real estate. I can just buy this thing and hold it. So gold and bitcoin will continue to take market share from there. And like you're saying property taxes, all that stuff. And then. Right, and then, and then the bottom middle is. That's, that's the point at which that's where these, that's where bitcoin explodes once it starts taking, taking market share from the bond portfolios. That's, that's.
- [37:58]
James
I want to make a long here.
- [37:59]
Dave
I just want to make, but I want to make a comment clear though. I don't think that that's happening this year. That is a long way off still. But we're starting to hear rumblings of people worried that this whole fiscal issue is not going away. And those bonds are really, you're losing money on those every year because the expansion of the money supply and fiscal deficits that are driving the devaluation, the debasement of the underlying currency in those bonds. I just want to flip in of a couple.
- [38:27]
James
I'm sorry.
- [38:28]
Dave
Yeah.
- [38:28]
James
I just want to say point because I completely agree with everything you just said. The reason I look, keep that chart up there. This, this is, this is, this chart is so important. The, the one of the things that people were saying yet last week and, and I found it ridiculous is that, well, won't the governments start push back against book bitcoin and gold because you know of this rally, aren't they worried about it? And the answer to is, is on this chart until bitcoin plus gold is substantively greater versus that green box, governments don't care. The instant they start worrying about it hitting the, the, the, the, the, the gray box, they're gonna care. We got a long freaking way to do that. You're Talking about gold at, at 40 trillion, bitcoin at 30 trillion, it's still probably. They don't care. They'll care when gold is and big plus bitcoin is 100 trillion, that's when the governments will start caring. Because here's the thing that people always, we know this is true, but we always, but we don't kind of look at it. It's that government officials don't give a crap about anything after their term is up. They're trying to, you know, so they're not going to care if, if they see that the trajectory and they say, hey, I think bitcoin is going to be a problem here. Maybe we should do something about it because it's going to make selling bonds harder. Right. If that is a true statement that they start to see, it would have to be something they think is going to happen in the next three or four years or they're literally going to ignore it. And that matters. People who want to understand why I say bitcoin is at a 90% discount, it's because of the orange to the yellow box. But if you really want to get down to it, it's the combination of the yellow and orange to the green box.
- [40:21]
Scott Melker
Yeah. If gold and Bitcoin are 100 and Mike, I want you to just jump in kind of and unpack all this. But if gold are 100 and Bitcoin, then money's going to be 500.
- [40:31]
James
Money's going to be like 3 or 400. Yeah, you're right. But that's the trajectory that it's going to. Of course it's no two ways about, which is why.
- [40:39]
Dave
Which is why yields are going up.
- [40:41]
Mike McGlone
So I got a little wrap for this. And first of all, starting with the quote from Benjamin Disraeli, what we anticipate seldom occurs. That's the problem, I think, with people just assuming this is going to be an easy ride for bitcoin to do. Just what Amazon did. Remember, it took an 86%.
- [41:00]
Dave
By the way.
- [41:02]
Mike McGlone
That's my point. This is my point. From here on, every time it gets expensive. What Dave started with I have to piggyback on that is I've actually deliberately started ignoring all the comments on X. LinkedIn is much more tame because I know exactly what their positions are. These are massively speculative. People who got a lot of are trying to play that game. Oh, I want to be like everybody else, make a lot of money. I waver long risk assets like cryptos and they get mad when we point out the facts. Of what happens with people like that. It's one thing that's so important. What Dave said we have to remember is when you get those kind of responses, I know what your position is and boldness. What I've said always in the past at major peaks in markets is that's what happens. Human nature will never change. So I want to piggyback back on that a little bit and give you the big picture. I don't think bitcoin is going to fail by dropping 80 to 90%. That's what it always has done in the past. And when people tell me it's over, I'm like, okay, that's when I worry because it always done that now and piggybacking a little. What James pointed out was we are in a significant space of the bond vigilantes telling there's a problem with the US bond market. And I would point out, never underestimate the self correcting mechanism the US market that what you point out, James, and the big yield differential between that Chinese 10, you know, that 1.66 and the US at 4.52, it's not going to last long. It's lasting a lot longer than I thought. But everything here is predicated on being lifted up higher by the US stock market, which is way overdue for a correction. So let me give you my macro big picture piggybacking. Everything you've said is we are overdue for that and crypto should lead the way lower. That's my point is it's not, I need to also it's done it many times in the past when you see someone who's going to get pain. When I sense pain, I sense a lot of fearful pain. And I can warn people. I have to say, well, if you're buying bitcoin here and you're first number one, you have to fully participate the complete success of the Trump administration. Okay, they can still succeed and bitcoin could drop a lot. Let's not underestimate it just started. It's only been 100 days or so when that's when you have peak of, of you know, polls and then you always trickle down, you have corrections in between. We have to point that out. The key thing is this space has so much speculative excesses. It's very much akin to 1929 in the US, 1989 in Japan and there will be a purge. So I want to point out one thing you mentioned about JP Morgan in 2018, JP Morgan wrote, and again it's an analyst at JP Morgan wrote a piece about how bitcoin futures were failing. And I rebuttal that right away they were missing key fact that they were using nominal value like you use futures price, you use futures contracts. It was taken off. It was just one of my key things. They were completely wrong. Now I point is the on everybody's on board and pointing how bullish it is. That's when you have to tick back, pick back as a rational investor who got in early and say okay, now I have to be very careful with this space because it's in the mainstream. Everybody's bullish and it's very expensive. That's my point is this is not as a strategist, this is where I have to point out those facts and be very careful what you say. I don't think bitcoin is going to fail. If it drops 80% it's going to purge the excesses and that will be part of success. We need to get things like dogecoin worth $33 trillion attracts nothing out that has to be purged out. And as everything gets tokenized, as Scott had a great interview with Scott with Michael Schoenstein who is a friend I listened to that on the drive into the city pointed out it's when everything gets tokenized it's going to put them on the same platform where you're going to that short bait. Yeah. So short bait and theorem hasn't worked but next it will. I still will stick with those. This is the risk. If we get that normal. Okay, we've only had two in the last 25 years. Two 50% drawdowns US stock market, we're overdue for that and we should be pricing expecting that. Question is when does it start? So to me that's the macro big picture. Everything you said somewhat solidifies those views. We have the hubris. We have major financial institutions pointing how great this space is when we all loved it, when they hated it. That's the time to love it. And now that's so much love. You have to be very careful about the valuation. And that's my point is I'll end with this. Everything will be fine in bitcoin as long as the stock market goes up. And that's what this year is proving with that bitcoin gold ratio. And I fully expect if the stock market's going to go down, Bitcoin, potentially even that ratio will lead the way.
- [45:17]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I just hate those.
- [45:18]
Mike McGlone
That's what it's been doing.
- [45:18]
Scott Melker
Yeah. I want to talk more about the short term price action. Something we Never do here. But we put it in the title. So I just really quickly have to mention it, obviously. I mean, James, you kind of giggled right before the show when I said I hate Sunday pumps in general. But yesterday smelled so bad to me, like I had to leave the room. It was so bad. And you're like, that was Sailor.
- [45:36]
Dave
Yeah, it was Sailor. And maybe some other, you know, large institutional buyers that, that are adding it to their Treasury. I don't know if GameStop is out there yet or not, but you know.
- [45:46]
Scott Melker
We saw there was a couple, a healthcare company in Singapore, a company in the uk. I mean now it's like three a day, the Treasury. So that door has opened. Matt Hogan was right about that. He said the next bid. So that's what makes me fundamentally remain obviously bullish. I think we have a huge.
- [46:01]
Dave
Yeah, for sure. And that's the question is as more and more companies add bitcoin to their treasury, as more sovereigns do it, the question is, Mike, for me is when does it really fully decouple from risk assets? You've heard me say this for years now that bitcoin's been the tip of the risk assets spear and it has been. If you want to know where the market's going on a Sunday at. If bitcoin sells off hard, it's likely the market's going down because you've got managers who are selling bitcoin to meet margin calls. Anticipate them. Yeah. So what they can sell. But this, I believe, is the beginnings of it. It's the beginnings of bitcoin decoupling. Has it decoupled yet? No, of course it hasn't. You can see it hasn't decoupled fully yet. But will it? Yes, it will. It's just a question of time and how long that takes. But Mike, as far as the drawdown the market, if you look at historical values and PE ratios and the valuation of the market to GDP and all those values, of course it is due for a pullback. It has been. And this almost V shaped recovery off of the Trump tariff issues and the sell off, then the march right back to near all time highs, I mean, it's been staggering. But the question that the bond market is asking, and this is where you just keep turning to the bond market is the question the bond market is asking is, are fiscal deficits going to continue to drive this engine forward, continue to debase the value of the currencies underneath all these bonds and will that keep this market buoyed to the point where it does not have a 30, 40, 50% sell off and that it may have a small sell off, but nothing like that because it cannot be disrupted. Because we are so financialized in the US that if the US Stock market is disrupted, the US bond market is disrupted. If the US bond market is disrupted, the treasury is disrupted. And that's not going to do so the Fed will step in farther, faster and earlier with some sort of acronym or quietly out there buying, you know, assets in the open market like they did in 2019. That's, that is what. Yeah, they'll be out there buying bonds. That's right. So that's, that's the question. The question is. And that's what everybody's asking, and that's why you're seeing the bonds, the bond yields go higher on the longer end of the curve. It's because they're asking that very question. And what am I going to need to be, to be, you know, I need to be compensated from, for the duration risk and that, that yield risk on my, you know, the interest rate risk on my bonds.
- [48:48]
Mike McGlone
We're still talking about bonds with the s and P500 up on the year. That's my point that we haven't had the test. We, we had one little minor test, was down 15%, down about 30%. That's my point. When it does go down and stay down, it's not an issue. My point is goes down and stays down, we have to remove some of that wealth from the system. It's always has happened. Now you're telling me it's going to be different. Great.
- [49:10]
Dave
No, I'm not saying it's gonna be wonderful. I'm saying the question is, what is driving. Well, the difference between here and what we saw, you know, in 2007 is the debt to GDP ratio is just off the charts. It's not even close. I get it. It's a completely, completely different universe return.
- [49:27]
Mike McGlone
Yeah.
- [49:27]
Dave
Everybody's becoming Japan. Exactly.
- [49:29]
Scott Melker
I, I just have to say, James, my answer to that, I agreed with you 100%. But if we get 10, 20, 30, 40 of the, these bitcoin treasury companies. I'm not talking about companies that add bitcoin, that just buy bitcoin. I'm talking about people raising debt to buy more bitcoin. If we get 20, 30, 40 of those, that 30% correction becomes a 50% correction when we have to liquidate it.
- [49:50]
Mike McGlone
Exactly. You just described a systematic risk in a highly volatile risk asset that I never thought I'd be writing about. The shocking amount of Risk in this space is unprecedented. I used to use the inordinate burden. I'd say, okay, well copper will be fine if long the stock market goes up. The inordinate burden. Stock, the stock market goes up. Now all that inord burn is shifted over to cryptos and the number one we know is bitcoin.
- [50:14]
James
So here's the problem. The problem is, is you're right. If bitcoin, if in fact that was a substantial amount of what was going on here and it was already done. What you're seeing is the beginning, say, predicting the crash. When things are starting, it's, you got to go up the mountain before you, before you come down the mountain mountain and yeah, do we. Is there going to be more volatility? Sure. Is there any way that little bitty, I forgot the color of the, of the bitcoin box isn't going to be a bigger box relative to gold where people realize they can borrow in depreciating assets and buy bitcoin and it becomes that kind of slow groundswell, which is literally what we're happening now. We're all hyperbolic about this except for it just hasn't happened yet.
- [50:59]
Mike McGlone
Yet.
- [51:00]
James
I mean, the total percentage of ownership that's on leverage in bitcoin is way lower now than it was in 2021. 2021, people were paying 55, 0 to 100, 100% annual interest rates to go long bitcoins. Now they're paying nothing to speak up because the funding rates are so low and the people who are do raising this debt are getting ridiculously good deals to do. So though they're paying these sailors. What's the sailor's effective interest rate that he's paying? It's really, really low. And so to say that that's creating lots of leverage in the system. Well, you're fast forwarding. In two or three years, there might be a lot of leverage in the system, but there isn't leverage in the system.
- [51:41]
Mike McGlone
Now, how often in history and do you know in life when people get a mar. Asset right, and it goes up and make a lot of money and they add to that position that they're fine. I mean, I've just been.
- [51:51]
James
No, I agree with you.
- [51:52]
Mike McGlone
That's, that's just shocking what he's doing. And I mean, mean, it's just irresponsible. But people are starting to say, hey, look at me, I can do this too.
- [52:00]
James
Yeah, I mean, you're right. The key.
- [52:02]
Dave
Hold on, hold on.
- [52:03]
James
That sentence is starting.
- [52:05]
Dave
Yeah, I don't think he's got, he's got it. He is, he has laddered his, his, the maturity of his debt ladder the maturity of his, of his debt on both time and price. So you know, he doesn't have anything. Michael. You would have to have a sustained down 60% plus.
- [52:32]
Mike McGlone
That's normal.
- [52:33]
Dave
Bitcoin. Bitcoin, that's normal for years and years. For him to have any, have to refinance any of this debt or sell bitcoin to.
- [52:42]
Scott Melker
I think he's fine. Yeah, I think he's fine. It's the copycat. So they're going to basically just BE hedge funds LARPing as treasury companies that are.
- [52:51]
James
Where's the supply going to come from to fund all the copycats, to fund sovereigns, to fund states and to fund people just using it as a Treasury asset because they see what's happening to the bond market. I mean, do you think it's an accident that bitcoin has not, has not gone below 100,000 in the last 12 days? It's not an accident. Right. You know, you've seen all sorts of volatility elsewhere and it's not, I mean even today bitcoin is almost up on the day now now, right? You know it is up compared to.
- [53:19]
Scott Melker
Friday, the day at 107. It's at 10:35. I mean I.
- [53:23]
James
No, no, no, 107.
- [53:24]
Dave
Well, but look, look at, look at, look at, look at ibit. Look at Ibit vs Friday. Okay, it's down a half a percent.
- [53:33]
Scott Melker
Yeah, that, that makes sense if you, if we're, if we're talking about it.
- [53:36]
Dave
Trading on apples to apples, down half a percent from, from the last trading session.
- [53:41]
James
But the point is that, that there is a thesis that that bitcoin box will grow to be the size of the gold box as currently exists. And I think most people who believe that believe the gold box will continue to grow. So it won't quite catch up. It'll get to 80 or so percent. That is a thesis. And there is a lot of money that goes into a box says this thing is not going to be determined based on today's squiggles. It's going to be based on what we see over the next couple of years. And the average holding period for the people who've been buying is north of a year and a half, a half. And so that changes that dynamic. The volatility that Mike is talking about happened in a world where the average holding period was way the hell less. Where the average, where, where prices. I mean, look, I I run a company that is the number one algorithmic or I used to run a company that is the number one algorithmic provider of trading software for derivatives, for crypto derivatives in the world. I am telling you this is not a guess that every single major move up and down before 2024 was run was led by derivatives. And so all the volatility that you're saying it used to do was in a derivative led market where people were on average, on average over 10, you know, 10 times leverage. I mean, 10 times leverage in the United States is insane. Nobody even futures people who are doing that, yes, they could do 20 times average on the dollars they have in the account account, but they all know that they have infinite loss on that collateral because, because there's no real time liquidation. And so as their overall portfolio, you never find people who are doing beta at more than five times leverage. You just don't. I mean, those people are nuts and we look at them as nuts. So that was the, that was what was driving Bitcoin. Of course, it was more volatile back then by definition.
- [55:32]
Mike McGlone
So it's, it's a problem I have now with people who are buying it and saying that's over. I mean, they're buying an asset that has 40 to 50% annual volatility and expecting it's not going to drop 40, 50%. We stop those people out and then we'll go and gets bullish. But not now, not here. At these levels, the highest ever S&P 500. It's too much of a pile on, Dave. It's just. You see it.
- [55:52]
James
I understand. Look, people ask me the question. So I want to make two points here. Point number one, your 40, 50% volatility is comprised of backward looking stuff based upon. No, of course it is, but it's. But when the leverage in the system is, is one fifth what the leverage in the system used to be, don't expect the volatility to be the same in terms of just general up and down volatility. That is a very important difference. And it's not different this time. It's because that's, that's the nature of the market.
- [56:22]
Dave
And then the reality is that, Mike, as you said, doge is not being adopted. I don't, at least I don't think it is. You know the other.
- [56:31]
James
Unless X becomes a payments company and they adopt it, thousands and thousands and.
- [56:35]
Dave
Thousands of these cryptocurrencies are not being adopted. Bitcoin's being adopted as a separate asset and you're seeing it happen in real time. And that, and that's the, that is the difference. Something. It's different this time. It's the difference in the fact that it's in the adoption phase. And just like, you know, as Amazon was being adopted as the new marketplace for the world, it had tremendous volatility, confusion around it, a lot of doubt, massive short sellers around it because they just couldn't believe that, you know, their grandmother was going to actually put the credit card online to buy something. And now, you know, my mom is probably has an Amazon package delivered every day, day, you know, and so it's like those are, those are things that, that you have to take into account as well. It's not just that this time is different is that bitcoin is different. It truly.
- [57:30]
James
Now I want to make, I wanted to make a second point because I said there were two. The second point is that I am not, not a permeable here. I think that there is a very real chance we will.
- [57:41]
Dave
We.
- [57:41]
James
We are still in the same trading range. I won't change my opinion. Unless we for some reason, and I think exceedingly unlikely we break with conviction below that high 70s level. Do I think we're going to get down there? Actually, no, I'd say I, I think that we're going to hold around these levels and then go higher. I really do. Because. And the reason I do, Mike, is I sit on these Twitter spaces all day long and I listen to all the bitcoin bulls and they're all bearish. They all think we're going to test the mid-80s. Josh man who calls for 444 says we're going to go to 84. They're all bearish. I want to be the other side of them. If they were all bullish, I'd be in the McGlone camp. 100. Because you're right, when everybody says something, they're only talking their own freaking book. I agree with you. You are. Everyone should listen to what Mike said there. And if you want to bookmark one thing out of this, out of this, we are all violently in agreement that when people get angry and mad at you and they're talking their own book, they've already exhausted their firepower, they've already made their bet bets.
- [58:40]
Dave
They're all in.
- [58:41]
James
So you are right about that. But the reason that I actually, I think I'm being contrarian saying that that 100 might still be be we might not get there. I mean, it's kind of crazy for me to think that because it's so close. But I think one, you know, I think new all time highs near 120, 130 are more likely than that 84 level. Now am I, I putting, am I betting on this? No, I'm sitting on my hands. I mean I, I don't own that much bitcoin. I am not a crypto billionaire. Crypto millionaire even. Well, maybe, but whatever. I guess if you add it all up across everything, mostly. No, I know most of my money is in Ethereum. No, no, I know, you're right, Scott. That's actually a very important point. I mean, you know, you have to be crazy to own, you know, to, to, to claim to be a crypto deca millionaire and oh, I keep it France or your. I mean it's insane. Which is why by the way, I, I always laugh at all the people. The bitcoin maxis say, well, I can't believe you have most of your Bitcoin in ETFs. I go, well yeah, because they can't steal it. You try it, you get it back, they have to kill you for it. And even then it's, it's not that easy. So of course that's what you do because you know, until we, we, we have really good solutions for this. And so, but, but anyway, the point is that it's, I think that being contrarian is really important. I get the most nervous when everyone's bullish. And yeah, you get a lot of people in the long term, but they're not leveraged. The leverage players are the ones who I kind of look at. And that's why I love that meme. You know the meme, Scott, the one that says what people think Hodling is like the straight line up and what it's actually like holes in the ground.
- [60:16]
Scott Melker
And grenades flying in.
- [60:18]
James
Yeah, because, because it's true. It's not easy and it never will be.
- [60:22]
Scott Melker
Like I said, my only concern was short term because it was a Sunday pumpkin. It made the slightest of all time high daily and weekly closes while being wildly overbought with bearish divergence, with RSI on every single timeframe from the daily all the way down and even maybe on the weekly. So listen, but to me, I will once again say dips are gifts. And bitcoin, it's always been that way. But right now I think the whole market to me is like the big dips are more viable than the rips are sellable. But we'll see if that changes in. You know, but I just think there's so much uncertainty in the world. Treasury is doing this, but maybe that is the case for bitcoin. Right. A lot of people were saying, hey, look, treasuries are up. The bond market's falling apart. They downgraded our debt. Bitcoin's going up. I don't buy that. That's why it went up on a Sunday this time.
- [61:08]
Dave
No, but, you know.
- [61:11]
Scott Melker
By the way.
- [61:12]
Dave
Expect volatility, have confidence when. When you step in and. And, and get some really good prices, though.
- [61:19]
James
But, oh, but by the way, the Sunday pump wasn't. Sailor, you could do the math. His average.
- [61:24]
Scott Melker
He did it before. But I'm saying somebody did it before.
- [61:26]
Dave
That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying.
- [61:28]
James
Yeah.
- [61:28]
Scott Melker
A single buyer who kind of was pushing price floppy. I don't know if you saw this or trying. Yeah. But speaking of bitcoin treasury companies, I just literally saw this news come out that Natalie Brunel is appointed to the board of similar.
- [61:41]
Dave
Awesome. That's awesome.
- [61:42]
Scott Melker
Good for her.
- [61:43]
Dave
Yeah.
- [61:44]
Scott Melker
They're another of the bitcoin treasury companies. Oh, my gosh. It's 1,500, guys. We. We pushed it again. I appreciate that. You guys take this extra time. Who's going to. James, you going to Vegas? You live in Vegas.
- [61:59]
James
I will be flying in on the 27th, so I get in for. I could probably make a dinner on the 27th if you guys are up for it.
- [62:05]
Scott Melker
I'm only going for, like, one night probably, because. Yeah, yeah, we need you in bitcoin Vegas, man.
- [62:12]
Mike McGlone
Not gonna make that one, unfortunately.
- [62:13]
Dave
Julie.
- [62:14]
James
Yeah. James, let's. Let's.
- [62:15]
Scott Melker
Ship's going.
- [62:16]
Dave
Yeah, yeah. All right. All right, guys. Yeah, for sure.
- [62:19]
Scott Melker
All right, guys, thank you so much. I'll see you guys next week for another macro Monday. Later.
- [62:26]
Mike McGlone
Let's do.