Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets
Episode: Bitcoin To Explode To $1 Million by 2028! $2.4 Million Coming By 2030?!
Release Date: May 2, 2025
Host: Scott Melker

1. Global Monetary Shifts: Ray Dalio’s Perspective

In the opening segment, Scott Melker delves into Ray Dalio's recent insights on the shifting global monetary order. Dalio, a renowned investor, has been vocal about the transformation of the world order, emphasizing that such shifts are rarely smooth and often filled with "strife, disaster, and catastrophe."

“Almost none of them have gone smoothly. They’re almost always filled with strife, disaster, and catastrophe.” — Scott Melker [02:15]

Dalio critiques the Trump administration's approach, highlighting the administration's initiation of a trade war with Canada and Mexico shortly after taking office. This aggressive stance undermined Dalio's call for “bringing everyone to the table” to negotiate a cooperative solution.

“It's too late. The changes are coming.” — Scott Melker [05:30]

Dalio asserts that trust in the U.S. as a reliable partner is eroding, leading nations to consider alternatives. He contrasts this with the Biden administration's attempts to rebuild global trust through strategies like friend-shoring and re-establishing diplomatic relations, which have been undermined by ensuing conflicts and policy shifts under Trump.

2. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy

Melker transitions to current economic indicators, noting the first signs of tariff-induced strain on the real economy. The recent GDP report showed a dip into negative territory for the first time since 2022, although Melker cautions that this might be influenced by import stockpiling and may normalize in the upcoming quarter.

“The stockpiling of imports caused a big drop in GDP that may or may not normalize during the next quarter.” — Scott Melker [09:45]

Job openings have significantly decreased, and manufacturing sectors have experienced a sharp decline. These indicators are crucial in understanding the Federal Reserve's potential rate decisions. With the next Fed meeting approaching, Melker observes that the market is pricing in a minimal chance of an interest rate cut.

“Core CPI inflation is still running at 2.8%, and the Fed just doesn’t have a clear signal that they need to cut due to labor market deterioration.” — Scott Melker [13:10]

Drawing parallels to past crises, such as the 2020 COVID outbreak and the 2008 financial meltdown, Melker criticizes the Fed’s delayed responses, arguing that this hesitation often leads to missed opportunities to mitigate economic shocks effectively.

3. Bitcoin’s Explosive Price Predictions

A significant portion of the episode focuses on bullish forecasts for Bitcoin. Several institutions and influential figures have projected staggering price increases:

• Ark Invest introduced a model accounting for lost Bitcoins, projecting a price of $2.4 million by 2030.

  “They were arguing that most supply models aren’t doing enough to take into account lost coins.” — Scott Melker [17:50]

• Standard Chartered forecasted Bitcoin could reach $120,000 by the end of Q2 2025.

  “Standard Chartered came out forecasting a rally to 120,000 by the end of the second quarter.” — Scott Melker [19:20]

• Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, boldly declared Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028. Hayes bases this prediction on increased liquidity in the financial system, driven by treasury buybacks and potential future economic conditions leading to expansive liquidity measures.

  “He suggested that Janet Yellen had pumped around 2.5 trillion worth of liquidity into the system with treasury operations from the bottom in 2022.” — Scott Melker [21:40]

Melker discusses the mechanisms Hayes proposes, emphasizing that an influx of liquidity is pivotal for Bitcoin’s ascent. While acknowledging the speculative nature of these predictions, Melker points out the psychological impact of such forecasts, which can serve as anchor points that encourage broader market participation and bullish sentiment.

“They grab headlines and spread the understanding that Bitcoin is currently available at a discount to where it’s headed.” — Scott Melker [24:55]

4. Crypto Lending and the Credit Drought

Shifting focus to the crypto lending landscape, Melker highlights recent developments indicating a resurgence in lending activities:

• Nexo has returned to the U.S. market after a two-year regulatory pause, operating as a retail-facing crypto lender.

• Coinbase has increased its Bitcoin-backed loan limits, now allowing loans up to $1 million per customer by leveraging USDC (USD Coin).

Melker explains that these movements are counteracting a severe credit drought that has persisted since 2022. A study by Galaxy Digital revealed that centralized finance (CeFi) lending peaked at $35 billion in early 2022 but plummeted to around $7 billion by year-end, rebounding slightly to $12 billion last year.

“Operating in a credit drought has put dampers on this cycle, especially for crypto native firms.” — Scott Melker [28:30]

The limited availability of credit has stifled institutional activities and reduced market maker participation, forcing crypto funds to decrease their leverage. Melker posits that the recent uptick in lending from major players like Coinbase and Nexo could signal the beginning of a recovery in crypto credit markets, potentially sparking new bullish activities.

5. Stablecoins: Growth and Institutional Adoption

Stablecoins remain a cornerstone theme in the current crypto cycle, with significant advancements and institutional backing:

• Regulatory Developments: Former Congressman Patrick McHenry advocated for comprehensive crypto legislation, positioning stablecoins as the primary focus.

• Corporate Integrations: Major payment providers such as Stripe, Mastercard, and Visa have announced plans to incorporate stablecoin payments extensively, transitioning from mere planning to active execution.

• Tether’s Expansion: Tether declared its intention to launch a U.S.-domiciled stablecoin, aiming for a market release by the end of the year.

• U.S. Treasury Forecast: A recent Treasury report projects that the stablecoin market could burgeon to $2 trillion by 2028, up from approximately $250 billion currently in circulation. This projection reflects an anticipated eightfold growth, mirroring the expansion seen between 2020 and 2022 but starting from a significantly larger base.

“Both Wall street and the treasury just attached a market value to the stablecoin opportunity and it’s really, really large.” — Scott Melker [32:15]

The Treasury recognizes the potential of stablecoins to enhance the U.S. treasury market’s functionality through tokenization and increased efficiency in debt issuance. However, the report also cautions about potential risks, such as stablecoins competing for bank deposits and impacting lending rates.

Melker underscores the rapid integration of stablecoins into major financial infrastructures, noting that once stablecoin legislation is finalized, banks are likely to swiftly launch their own stablecoin products to capture market share. He speculates on the implications of traditional banks issuing stablecoins, expressing both intrigue and apprehension about how this will influence decentralized finance (DeFi).

“This is a completely new frontier for the crypto industry and it is definitely a trend to watch.” — Scott Melker [34:50]

6. Conclusion: The Future Outlook

In wrapping up the episode, Melker reflects on the myriad bullish signals emerging within the crypto and broader financial ecosystems. Despite challenges such as the credit drought and shifting global orders, the infusion of liquidity, institutional lending activities, and the burgeoning stablecoin market herald a potentially transformative period for Bitcoin and the crypto industry at large.

“There is definitely an attempt and a desire for everyone to find bullish signals and it’s making the vibes a lot nicer than they were a couple of weeks ago.” — Scott Melker [36:30]

Melker emphasizes the importance of staying attuned to these developments, particularly the evolution of stablecoins and their integration into mainstream finance, as key indicators of future growth and stability within the crypto space.

Key Takeaways:

• Global Order Shifts: Ray Dalio warns of irreversible changes in the global monetary system, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s trade policies.

• Economic Indicators: Recent GDP declines and job market contractions signal potential challenges ahead, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain current interest rates in the near term.

• Bitcoin Projections: Optimistic forecasts from Ark Invest, Standard Chartered, and Arthur Hayes suggest significant price increases for Bitcoin, driven by factors like lost supply and increased liquidity.

• Crypto Lending Revival: The return of major lenders like Nexo and the expansion of Coinbase’s loan products indicate a recovery from the ongoing credit drought in the crypto sector.

• Stablecoin Expansion: Institutional support and regulatory advancements are propelling stablecoins towards a projected $2 trillion market by 2028, with major financial players integrating stablecoin solutions.

• Future Outlook: The intersection of increased liquidity, institutional lending, and stablecoin adoption could catalyze a new era of growth and innovation in the crypto industry.

Notable Quotes:

• “Almost none of them have gone smoothly. They’re almost always filled with strife, disaster, and catastrophe.” — Scott Melker [02:15]

• “It’s too late. The changes are coming.” — Scott Melker [05:30]

• “Core CPI inflation is still running at 2.8%, and the Fed just doesn’t have a clear signal that they need to cut due to labor market deterioration.” — Scott Melker [13:10]

• “They grab headlines and spread the understanding that Bitcoin is currently available at a discount to where it’s headed.” — Scott Melker [24:55]

• “Operating in a credit drought has put dampers on this cycle, especially for crypto native firms.” — Scott Melker [28:30]

• “This is a completely new frontier for the crypto industry and it is definitely a trend to watch.” — Scott Melker [34:50]

• “There is definitely an attempt and a desire for everyone to find bullish signals and it’s making the vibes a lot nicer than they were a couple of weeks ago.” — Scott Melker [36:30]

This episode of The Wolf Of All Streets offers a comprehensive analysis of current economic trends, Bitcoin’s potential future, and the evolving landscape of crypto lending and stablecoins. Scott Melker provides insightful commentary, blending macroeconomic factors with specific crypto developments to present a nuanced outlook for listeners navigating these turbulent financial waters.