← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin To Hit $200K, Analysts Forecast Massive Growth For All Cryptocurrencies
00:50:09
Bitcoin To Hit $200K, Analysts Forecast Massive Growth For All Cryptocurrencies
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
It's that time of year when institutions are making their predictions for what's going to happen in 2025. And we have yet another bullish institution making a bunch of bullish predictions, including $200,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year. This, of course, coming from Bernstein, maybe the institution that likes to make the biggest newsworthy predictions of all. We're going to talk about everything that's coming for 2025, the state of institutional adoption. With very special and regular guest Matt Hogan from Bitwise. And of course, we've got Tillman and Andrew here from Arch Public. It's Tuesday and we are back for more talk about 2025 and the crypto industry. Let's go.
- [00:43]
Tillman
Let's do.
- [00:57]
Scott Melker
Let' what is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Allstreets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. If you notice the permanent bags under my eyes. Yes, they're always there. It's genetic. But they're a little bigger today because I was up all night trying to figure out how like an AI agent hacked my Twitter without hacking my Twitter. You guys may have seen it on my feed. Mario Nofal tweeted some sort of meme coin Solana scam. My account immediately retweeted it saying I support my dear friend. Then a minute later, Mario's team caught it, deleted it. It magically deleted from my account. I got 100 calls about it, woke up and neither of us were hacked. We both had full access to our account, could not figure out how anybody tweeted and have spent the entire night trying to figure that out. Good times being on crypto Twitter. But here we are. I've got Matt Tillman and Andrew. Good morning, gentlemen. I hope your 2025 is going as swimmingly as mine. So far. I know. Tell me you've got like, you know, the pneumonia flu.
- [02:03]
Tillman
Covid, I'm getting over it, but it is. It was rough. The transition from 2024 to 2025 was very rocky.
- [02:11]
Scott Melker
Well, you sound amazing. I mean, full. You're clearly in your prime. Tillman and I were actually supposed to meet up on Friday in. In Colorado for. For a drink. And his. His sickness was preventative, but I wish. But we'll have to do that next time anyways. Nobody wants to hear about our problems, right? This is an optimistic show. I was saying right before the show, we keep getting these lists of things that are going to happen in 2025. Matt, I think you Guys may have been first on that. You guys were definitely ahead of the curve on the 2025 predictions, which was great. But we're yet to see all the bad things that are going to happen in 2025. There are none. Right. But Bernstein here, $200,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year. I don't think we need to run through every single prediction they have here. Let's just say it's a very bullish list that sort of echoes your thoughts. I mean, is 200k hyperbolic? Is this possible? I think it's very possible.
- [03:05]
Matt Hogan
Personally, I. I think it's super possible. I think it's easy. In fact, if you dig into their predictions, there are two that underpin that. One is that they expect ETF inflows to go to $70 billion from 35, and two is that they expect corporations to buy $50 billion of Bitcoin, not 25, which they did last year. So they expect both of those trends to double. I agree with both of those sort of sub predictions. And if those things happen, it's hard to see the price not getting to 200,000. In fact, 200,000 may be on the pessimistic side. I think it could go even higher than that if we see both of.
- [03:44]
Scott Melker
I mean, we had a year of ETF inflows, right? As you said, at 35 billion. And we know for a fact that that's without most institutions being unlocked, which you've told us about many times. We saw, you know, Morgan Stanley potentially coming online now with E Trade. That was one of the big stories kind of missed last week during the holidays. But doubling seems like the lamest prediction ever in both of those. Michael Saylor himself is going to buy that much bitcoin if he can. If he can do it right. Forget even other institutions, because that's all him anyways.
- [04:13]
Matt Hogan
It's a big joke to him. Meta plan says it's buying, you know, a thousand bitcoin. And I expect the number of companies buying bitcoin to at least double or triple.
- [04:22]
Andrew
Right.
- [04:23]
Matt Hogan
It's a trend. People tend to follow that trend. So I agree that those may be, you know, on the low side. What I like about it, though, is you could sort of interrogate each one and say that checks out and this checks out. And we're not even talking about governments, we're not even talking about other things. And if you just add them together, there's, you know, too much demand, not enough supply. That's why everyone seems to be aggregating around this 200, $250,000 range.
- [04:52]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think that's easy, Andrew. But I have to say that I also aggregated between the 20250 last cycle. That was my prediction.
- [05:03]
Andrew
Yeah, this is Bernstein just following up on their black book that they put out in November. You know they put out 160 page document that they call their black books. That's their kind of their penultimate research documents at Bernstein. And they're just reiterating what they said then. And again, remember the highlight, you know, sentence in the first page of that black book was whatever you're doing, just buy everything. Like enough with the crypto conversation, just buy everything.
- [05:36]
Scott Melker
The single wildest quote that has ever come from an institution about stop thinking, just buy.
- [05:42]
Andrew
Yeah, they, nobody says that, that, that sounds like a meme coin spaces. That's what it sounds like. But it's coming from a Wall street research firm that is, is as respected as there is on the street. Right. So following up, they're, you know, they're following up on that document and listen, they're, they're, they're right in line with, with everything that, that Matt just said. You know I put out a post yesterday and you know, I just listed a bunch of organizations, right? A bunch of huge financial institutions. The state streets of the world, the bank of New York, melons of the world, the blackrocks. JP Morgan had a positive note out the other day. You know, these are organizations that collectively have nearly 200 trillion in assets that are either custody there or under management. That is, and again to Matt's point, that's not counting governments, that's not counting corporations. That is an enormous, enormous, enormous number. To put that into perspective, back in the financial crisis at the time, the biggest sort of bailout that ever happened in the history of the universe was $800 billion. $800 billion have $174 trillion quote unquote underneath their umbrella. And they're talking about Bitcoin all the time. So you know, Matt's out there on the front lines talking to these organizations and then oh by the way, downline downstream, all these organizations that use the rails that are put together custody and the like associated with, with what they do. It is very, very difficult. The reason why you're not seeing downside predictions, it's very, very hard to find a narrative that works that says somehow bitcoin will be lower. Short of the world blowing up.
- [07:47]
Scott Melker
I mean it's got to be a macro black swan. Even, you know, even Mike McGlone who comes on and is McGloomy, you know, he says, you know that we're, you know, it's, it's 1929. That would be the only thing. And to be quite honest, short of a one day crash, a slow drawdown into a negative kind of market territory I don't think would massively affect Bitcoin and Ethereum anyways. Tillman I mean it feels like if you look at a lot of the numbers, retail is not even that excited yet. It's not like we're seeing everybody buying bitcoin now.
- [08:21]
Tillman
I think retail has been left behind. I think the price action and the price, I think in a lot of retail minds they're still chasing the gains. Bitcoin serves a purpose for the world. This bull run that it's never served before which is a hedge against inflation and that doesn't really appeal. That's not a narrative that really retail buys into. Retail is about making money. Corporations are about hedging against their risk. It's about managing the risk as much as anything. So if you have all of your assets that are being priced in dollars, you know you've got and if you hold a lot of dollars, there's got to be a hedging strategy that you start to incorporate or at least that you start to look at incorporating into your, into your company, into your country, whatever. Those larger institutions are looking for easy ways to leverage their share price. And if you add a little bitcoin to any publicly traded ledger, you are getting a multiplier effect in the upside that you potential that you have without really risking anything. I think the kind of the number that I've heard most from the biggest institutions are put 1 or 2% into Bitcoin. Well, I mean what happens if, if it goes down by 50%, who cares? It's a rounding error for them. But what happens if it goes up to 250,000, 350,000? It's an incredible lopsided upside to downside ratio as far as I'm concerned. Especially if you have a great deal of wealth that you're trying to manage and, and reduce your risk against inflationary powers. So that, that's the way I would look at it.
- [10:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah Matt, you can speak to that. Obviously the percentage that people are actually talking about adding, we kind of, last time you were on we joked it used to be like maybe we'll get them on to 1%. And then all of a sudden BlackRock's talking about 3% and I'm talking to our who are saying, hey, maybe 5%. Right. But while that's all happening, we just got insane numbers. Like now it's really ramping up. Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs track over a billion in combined daily inflows. Obviously that was on a more bullish day, but the numbers just keep getting bigger and bigger. That's why I'm kind of surprised that Bernstein conservatively just says we'll match last year's inflows.
- [10:44]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, well, I still think there is this, like, there's this risk that if you say what you really think, you'll come across as crazy. So, so we should be, we should be happy enough that Wall street is willing to say an asset will double. Assets don't double in traditional finance. That's not a prediction you make. You're like, maybe the S and P will go up 6 or 7%. No one says it's going to double. So for them to say double, we should give them their, their flowers for going out there. But yeah, we're starting to see these much, much bigger numbers. You know, a billion dollars a day. And I think that's going to continue. Right? There's a lot of money in motion at the beginning of the year. That's why you're starting to see it pick up. You're seeing people who invested previously at 1% go to 5%. As you mentioned, Scott, we did a survey, we're going to publish it, I think next week of Financial advisor attitudes towards crypto. 99% of the people who had crypto last year plan to increase or maintain their exposure in 2025. I mean, these are unheard of numbers, right? So you're going to have the people invested last year investing more and then a new cohort of people investing for the first time. I think we're going to blow 2024's flows out of the water and it's be a persistent bid behind 100.
- [12:00]
Scott Melker
I'm going to go out there, I'm going to say 100 this year. If we did 35 last year, it should be 100 even just by other like wirehouses and such coming online. I want to also, Matt, highlight one thing that they said in this Burnstein, because it echoes something you and I have both said quite a bit. Finally, Ethereum is poised to become the next institutional darling in 2025, despite underperformance last year driven by traditional investors seeking intrinsic value. I definitely feel like the crazy person who still dares say the words Ethereum in public, but I know you think so too.
- [12:33]
Matt Hogan
I Definitely think so. I definitely think so. I mean, look, from an institutional perspective, Ethereum is easy to understand because it's more useful. You and I have discussed this, Scott. It sits at the center of three of the biggest themes that are happening in crypto right now, which is the growth of stablecoins, tokenization and AI agents. All of that is happening in the Ethereum ecosystem, primarily. I think when you combine those two and you look at the growth that's going on in base, there's going to be billions of inflows into these ETFs, there's going to be broad institutional support. When the Ethereum ETFs were struggling, you know, I said, I think on this show, they're going to wake up at some point next year. It's going to have 20, 30 billion dollars in assets in them. I still think that's going to be the case. I think it's the contrarian crypto bet for 20, 25. I think it's going to do exceptionally well.
- [13:22]
Scott Melker
Let's see, 35 into Ethereum there, 100 into Bitcoin, 35 into Ethereum.
- [13:30]
Matt Hogan
Now you're talking. I mean, we say that in jest, but you have to remember. Yeah, as. Yeah, I think that's real. As professional investors allocate, they also have a discipline of owning the market. They're not going to just own Bitcoin, they're going to own Bitcoin and Ethereum. And when we get a Solana etf, they're going to add a little bit of that. They're going to build these diversified portfolios of ETFs, and there's just going to be persistent flow into all of these products for years to come.
- [13:59]
Scott Melker
Is this institutional adoption still the biggest narrative, or has it been, no pun intended. I literally trumped by politics at this point. We're obviously talking about a strategic reserve. I saw Cynthia Lummis sat down with the future chair of the treasury and is talking about it and says he's going to support it. Trudeau's gone. You're going to probably get a strategic.
- [14:20]
Tillman
Whoa.
- [14:21]
Scott Melker
My camera just did. Probably get a strategic reserve in Canada now, right? Depending. I mean, this is like. It's ridiculous. It's kind of like, I guess nobody can make a bearish prediction when you see all these things happening. But, I mean, is institutional adoption still going to be the biggest driver of flows, or is it now nation states and corporations buying. It's all of it.
- [14:43]
Matt Hogan
It's all of them. It's the three sources of insatiable demand. I think the nation state theory is not priced in at any degree. If we actually see that happen, I think we're ripping right through these predictions in real time. Bitcoin is still so small. Andrew was mentioning these institutions having $200 trillion of assets, even like dipping your toe in the water, blows this thing out of proportion. We're only printing 169,000 bitcoin a year. There's just not enough bitcoin. So I think that nation state theory, if it comes into play, that's not, that's not in the market at all right now. The market is skeptical of that and they may be wrong.
- [15:27]
Andrew
And flows, by the way, flows again. All of this goes downstream. Right. So you start at nation states, then you go to institutions, then you go to retail. There's a Price WaterhouseCooper study that came out, I think yesterday or in the past couple of days. And one of the highlights was 80% of asset wealth managers that offer digital assets reported a rise of inflows into their own practices. Right. So 80%, that's a number that can't be ignored amongst all of wealth managers across the country. Right. And again, I'm assuming that Matt, bitwise, when they're having conversations on the ground with RIAs or other types of organizations and old, whether it's RIAs or regionals. I love the term regionals because they don't really exist anymore, but people still call places like Stifel or regional and. But again, if these places are offering digital assets, they are gathering more assets in total than folks that are not and that won't go ignored for very much longer. So not only are you going to see, quote unquote, you know, continued institutional demand, but we just barely, you know, just took a tiny little snowball off the tip of the iceberg associated with The Morgan Stanley's, UBS's, you know, the LPLs, the Edward Joneses of the world. They basically don't offer much of anything when it comes to even the Bitcoin ETFs. That will all change in 2025. So you're now now talking several other trillions of assets that now have access to put assets into cryptocurrencies at large. That alone will push the price higher.
- [17:21]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I was just going to say.
- [17:23]
Tillman
You know, my analogy that I use all the time is up until this point, all of the growth in digital assets, bitcoin specifically has been subterranean. It hasn't been seen by any of the institutions, any of the large nation states. But now that it's surfaced now that it's become standardized, institutionalized, however you want to call it the competitive delta, that it provides people if they have access to debt, cheap debt. It reminds me of a saying people have criticized Michael Saylor going, what happens if bitcoin goes to a dollar? You're, you're, you're screwed.
- [18:01]
Scott Melker
That's not the case by the way, guys.
- [18:04]
Tillman
Well, but the point is, is that he's structured it in a way where it's, you know, let me control the terms and I'll sign any contract. He has no recourse on that debt. He, it's an infinite money supply. As long as people continue to want a leveraged play on bitcoin, which is a necessary component to the structure that we're building. Right. It provides diversification, it provides HED strategies, it provides a lot of usefulness as a tool to the largest players. As long as that continues to work, that the competitive delta is going to grow. And what I mean by that is if you start a real estate company to today and you add bitcoin as a component to one and you don't to the other, which one do you think is going to be more successful? And so as that continues, that self fulfilling prophecy continues because they understand the base economics of what they're doing. It's going to cause a rush in my opinion, that we are not pricing in. And the rush may be from corporate, maybe from nation states, but nonetheless they're going to come because the competitive advantage of having it versus not having it is too great to ignore.
- [19:19]
Scott Melker
Don't we also get the aspect here, Matt, of like the Long island blockchain iced tea, right, where it just becomes cool to own it. You know, literally like your stock goes up because I mean it hasn't happened yet, but you just buy a little bit of bitcoin and all of a sudden it's a marketing tool to say how cool your company is and how forward looking you are. I see that coming too.
- [19:39]
Matt Hogan
I think it might already be happening. There are 70 publicly traded companies that own bitcoin at least a little bit. That's it's not just microstrategy, it's 70. And I think that'll be 200. I think you're right. We'll have the Long island blockchains in the world. Of course you're going to see all of that. I think there'll be pressure even on large cap companies to add it onto their balance sheets because they're being rewarded in this environment. And the downside is Relatively low. And again, there are already big companies. Block owns Bitcoin.
- [20:11]
Andrew
Right.
- [20:11]
Matt Hogan
Tesla owns Bitcoin, SpaceX owns Bitcoin. It's not just MicroStrategy and Marathon. It's a real growing list. And again, I go back to this point that bitcoin is so small. I had this argument last year with somebody who thought corporations buying bitcoin won't matter, but MicroStrategy alone bought more than all the bitcoin mined last year. They'll do it again this year, and then so will Meta Planet, and so will someone else. The market is just so tight and so small that these trends don't have to be very big to overwhelm the supply and demand dynamic.
- [20:46]
Scott Melker
Matt, when you're having conversations now, are you actually butting heads with people who say I should just buy MicroStrategy instead of buying the ETF?
- [20:55]
Matt Hogan
Look, I'm happy if anyone buys any of it. So, yes, you have people who do that who think it's more capital efficient. I think that's great.
- [21:04]
Andrew
Right?
- [21:04]
Matt Hogan
We're fans of MicroStrategy. It's the largest holding in our equity ETF. We're big fans of the company. That's great. Different people want different things. Some people want that leverage exposure. Some people don't want the variability in the premium. I understand both perspectives. The ETF is just there. If people want something that's super simple and super low cost, if they want something more complex, great. And you're going to see bitwise and others offer all these different flavors. I'm agnostic. As long as people understand what they're buying, great.
- [21:35]
Scott Melker
Wait, you guys had some news this week, didn't you, about products that you're looking to potentially offer that you're launching. Right. I mean, it's about to get really fun.
- [21:44]
Matt Hogan
Yeah. I mean, we filed for some products. I can't speak more beyond what's in the filing. But there's the bitcoin standard filing, which will hold companies that invest in bitcoin and we expect to see many more. I do think the filing space will get very exciting. I think you'll see some totally goofy, ridiculous and terrible ideas and hopefully some very good ideas as well. But it's fun.
- [22:11]
Scott Melker
Still looking for the, like, very random meme coin index. You know, I'm gonna have like a fart coin butthole. I mean, I hate to say these words, but far corner butthole are the.
- [22:24]
Tillman
I want to echo something that Matt said earlier when he said, you know, the people that are buying right now are interested in buying everything, they, they don't go to the track and bet on one horse, they go to the track and buy all the horses. And so, you know, Ethereum multiple product, the innovation that we're on the cusp of, I don't think anyone's priced in this is a tree that has now for 15 years, 16 years, been building a root system and it's just cracked the surface and it's come out 8ft wide in, you know, 8ft in diameter. And the fruit bearing nature of the tree is every species of fruit you can imagine. So there's an economy that's being built on the back of digital assets. And we haven't even scratched the surface. The amount of products and derivatives and options and all sorts of. But the ETFs provide something that in my opinion, nothing else provides. The 401k savings account. Stick it and forget it.
- [23:32]
Scott Melker
That's where all the money is by the way, in the United States. Right? I mean 100 percentage is, but that's where all.
- [23:37]
Tillman
Well, the last number I heard is about 2% percent of daily volume is accounted for by automatic buys like 401k buys. So the rising tide of having a 2% guaranteed buy on every day's volume, that's massive. Imagine that number being triple because the opportunity is that much greater or 10x. But I, I think Michael Saylor, I don't want to misquote him, but I think he said, I believe that bitcoin eventually will be s and P plus 12 or maybe 18%. Where are we now if that's where we end up? 50 years, 100 years from now, when the economy of digital assets is fully baked, doubling in a year doesn't sound too bad. I mean that sounds really, really conservative if you follow that math. So yeah, I think Matt's right. I think the development of products is the most important thing in the industry because it allows the biggest players to have their toolbox that they need to fix the whole car. They don't just need a wrench.
- [24:46]
Scott Melker
Yeah, and Matt, since we only have you for a couple more minutes, we also obviously with sort of this regime change coming, there's a lot of optimism beyond being able to do companies that are invested in Bitcoin like Solana, Doge, XRP, individual ETFs for everything, indexed ETFs for everything. But also Hester Purse publicly came out and said, yeah, we're probably going to add staking and in kind redemption to the Bitcoin ETFs. So we talked to death when these were approved, what it meant to have cash versus in kind redemption. And we never even thought staking was going to be a thing. If those two things happen, doesn't that also change massively the sort of outlook for the existing ones beyond even what we're going to be adding?
- [25:30]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, absolutely. It makes them more efficient, it makes them better for investors. We've had this weird world over the last 10 years where regulators have created structures that made products worse for investors. They created structures that forced us to have GBTC and its peers with premiums and discounts. They created structures so that stable coins couldn't pay interest to end investors. And they forced ttps not to have staking or in kind creations making them less efficient. Hopefully all of those peel back and of course that's going to accelerate inflows, particularly into things like ETH and as we get into Solana and others with really high staking yields where it's really important, it's just going to make those what they should be, which is the fundamental beta of the space, the starting point where you do at least this and then some portion of people will do things beyond that. And if we get those early in the year. Yeah, these, these Alliance Bernstein predictions for flows are going to have to be upgraded to the kind of numbers you were throwing out.
- [26:34]
Scott Melker
Scott. I don't know who out here has kids, but I feel like Gary Gensler and the same like regulators who have destroyed everything in markets are the same ones who like now set the regulations for packaging toys that you have to open on Christmas. Like why does it take me 45 minutes to like open a remote control car? I don't understand.
- [26:52]
Andrew
Yeah, yeah.
- [26:53]
Scott Melker
Regulatory overreach is everywhere. I'm just telling you, Andrew. I do. I'm going to let. Matt, Matt, do you have any final thoughts, anything you're excited about here for 2025 that we should be looking at before I let you go. And then Andrew and Tillman are going to stick around.
- [27:06]
Matt Hogan
Yeah, we, we covered, we covered a bunch of it. You know, look, I, I said this on Twitter yesterday. I think it's, I think it's an all season. I do think there's going to be a rising tide that lifts a lot of boats here. I think you're going to see people allocate into indexes and allocate broadly as Tillman has been discussing. So I'm really bullish, really excited and we're working on some fun things a bitwise, so stay tuned.
- [27:28]
Scott Melker
That's a cool tweet. How do you do the thing where you put the line through alt season. I don't know how to do that.
- [27:33]
Matt Hogan
There's a little. If you type in strikethrough on X in Google, there's an automatic generator you can get to.
- [27:40]
Scott Melker
You're not a boomer. You know how to do things on the Internet. I feel like an AI agent did this for you. Whatever those are. That's all the new rage. Apparently, that got into my Twitter. Well, Matt, guys, first of all, follow Matt. Matt Hogan. H O U G A N as you can see on the screen on X, I love seeing how much engagement you get these days. You've become like the voice of institutional adoption of a crypto. It's really amazing. I appreciate it.
- [28:08]
Matt Hogan
I appreciate all you guys do and thanks everyone for being on today.
- [28:11]
Scott Melker
Happy, happy 2025, guys. Give Matt a follow. Have a good one, Matt. See, we'll talk very soon. Hey, before we move on to talking more about Arch Public, can I show you guys a video and get your thoughts?
- [28:22]
Andrew
Let's do it.
- [28:23]
Scott Melker
We're talking about Saylor and I want you guys on the spot because this one really, really fucked my head up yesterday when I saw this. Here we go.
- [28:32]
Michael Saylor
Say about bitcoin, which is just wonderful, is if you accumulate a lot of wealth in bitcoin and you just burn the keys when you leave, you're making a pro rata contribution to everybody that owns bitcoin in the world based upon their contribution and their knowledge of bitcoin. So I think that supporting bitcoin as a protocol for prosperity is just a great thing to do. And otherwise, I think, you know, take the bitcoin with you.
- [28:58]
Andrew
Yeah. Will you be known more for the economic success or the humanitarian success?
- [29:04]
Michael Saylor
I hope I'm known for having taken the torch from Satoshi and went on to commercialize bitcoin with corporations and governments decades after he passed.
- [29:16]
Andrew
All right, let's remember what happened to Prometheus. Let's hope that doesn't happen to you, Michael.
- [29:22]
Scott Melker
Okay, so the shot that. That he takes at the end there, I've been on that show making money. He's hilarious. But, yeah, die and take it with you. Like, I guess bitcoin's not scarce enough.
- [29:40]
Andrew
Yeah, I guess. He doesn't have any kids, clearly.
- [29:44]
Scott Melker
No, he does not have children. He's said many times he doesn't really have anyone to pass on to. To be clear, he's not talking about microstrategies. Bitcoin people freaked out. It's like, how can I buy microstrategy if all the bitcoin, you know, we talk about whatever stack he has and I guess he didn't specifically say he would do that. He just very strongly said it was a great idea. He has alluded to it. I feel like that money could do a lot of good beyond just distributing the $20 bump everybody who owns bitcoin will get if it happened.
- [30:14]
Tillman
I agree. But I'll also tell you, I appreciate genius and genius doesn't work at the same levels that we work. It's not about making money for him. He said things like bitcoin saved me when no one else did. So he has a love affair with bitcoin that's deep. And you know, he understands the base. He understands the base economics of it at a level that, you know, he, what he's saying is, is my contribution to the bitcoin community would be greater in the lost supply. Which if you, if you do the math, he's right, you know, because let's just say that, you know, if you take the other side of it, which is like he dies and they sell all the bitcoin and take all the money out of the table, is that good for bitcoin? You're selling from bitcoin to Fiat. So he understands, you know, just, just how important the supply is and what the multiplier in price you get when the supply changes by a little bit because the demand is constantly growing. So if you start shrinking the supply by any factor, you're getting this massive delta and multiplier.
- [31:27]
Scott Melker
I don't think we know how much he owns. Andrew, like personally, like I said, he's clearly not talking about microstrategy, but burn it now. Yeah, you wanna, you want, you want to send things flying like if you're never gonna sell it and you're gonna burn your keys, let's do this.
- [31:44]
Andrew
It felt like a double sided conversation because right after he said that, you know, Charles was like, well, are you gonna be more known for this or your humanitarian? And I'm like, wait a minute, humanitarian? What are we talking about here? Burning hundreds of millions, billions of dollars. How is that humanitarian? That doesn't make any sense. So that was a strange conversation. But what I do know is that, you know, Michael Saylor, the way that he's using the current system, you know, let me use some equity to, to buy bitcoin and, and use the banks with my equity. Let me now do debt, let me do convertibles, let me do preferreds. The way that he's using the system on the Institutional side to do what he's doing with MicroStrategy is pretty, it's, it's a remarkable thing. It's. No, it's not a surprise that he has a cult following and MicroStrategy has a cult following. The way that he's again using the system in that way. It's, it's the real deal. It's, it's pretty, it's pretty cool stuff. Pretty cool.
- [32:48]
Tillman
What he said. I want to take over. I want people to know me as the guy who took Satoshi's vision and made it, gave it to the world from an institutional and governmental perspective. He's done that. That's exactly what.
- [33:01]
Scott Melker
By the way, that's a really, that is really a good like hint to what he intends for MicroStrategy. Absolutely. Because he said, I want MicroStrategy to be the biggest, you know, bitcoin bank, financial institution. Financialize. And so that, that shows exactly why he wants to buy so much bitcoin under micro strategies.
- [33:19]
Tillman
Well, and he's also showing that, you know, he's already tipping his hand to us about what the next, you know, revolution in bitcoin is going to be and it's going to be yield based and he has to have the supply to offer those loans to get the yield. Like there's, there's an economy again that he is in the center of building and he's the one that's leading the way. And so it doesn't surprise me that he has, you know, he's. I would equate him to Mel Gibson and Braveheart. You know, it wasn't about. He didn't care if he died on the battlefield. He didn't care about anything other than freedom. And that was. He died rough, but he chose.
- [34:03]
Scott Melker
I don't know if you guys know what was happening off screen during that scene. Really bad for his man. Yeah, yeah. Hope that's not how stellar goes. But I do love, you know, everybody loves Braveheart.
- [34:16]
Tillman
Yeah.
- [34:17]
Scott Melker
Did anybody see Gladiator 2? I missed that it even came out, by the way.
- [34:20]
Andrew
Yeah. It's not worth it. It's not worth it.
- [34:23]
Scott Melker
Disappointment. You know, it is worth it though. This.
- [34:26]
Andrew
Yeah.
- [34:29]
Scott Melker
Talk, Andrew.
- [34:31]
Andrew
So listen, this is the reason why people join our concierge program is because they get access to additional algorithms beyond your 10K portfolio, which is our entry level program. Our concierge program. You look at Those numbers are NQ and MNQ performance. Those are NASDAQ swing trade algorithms. 33.56 and 26.25. Those are mind blowing numbers. Right. To give you an example, in the seven and a half months that, that was your 10K portfolio in 2024, after a couple of losing trades in December, the total, the total ended up being 33% over that seven months, which is significant in and of itself. But then you look at this and you say, well, why should I join the concierge program? Well, because we're looking at Decembers that equal those seven months. So, you know, whatever the reality is, is that what the concierge program allows people is diversity of outcomes. You're diversifying your access to algorithms that are then taking multiple trades and diversifying your risk and you're making those decisions. Right. When you have conversations with our staff, you're making decisions on what algorithms are you choosing to use, what are the risk reward profiles. You're making those decisions and then benefiting to the tune of what those numbers show.
- [35:58]
Tillman
It's really easy tools. The more tools you have, the more things you can fix. And so if you're somebody who loves to understand and be ready for circumstances that maybe reveal themselves when you're asleep, reveal themselves when you're doing something else at your job, whatever, automation's here to stay. And automation is all about providing you somebody that allows they will follow exactly what you want them to follow. And when the opportunity presents itself, it triggers that action. And no different than we've been spending all morning talking about what's going to be the price of Bitcoin? Where is Bitcoin going from price perspective? Automation doesn't think like that. It's not speculating, it's, it's saying, okay, I want, if this threshold is met, if Bitcoin drops by 10% in a single hour, do you want to buy on the dip or do you want to sell on the dip? And guess what? Automation will allow you to say exactly what you want to do. And it will trigger based upon the math and not based upon you going, this is a great time to buy, or sitting in front of your computer and looking for trades that really don't exist. Right. That's the, that's the worst Achilles heel of every trader. Boredom. And so why not layer technology upon itself to create a rule book that allows you to then say enter. And that rule book is applied based upon pure math and no emotion. It's a competitive advantage that nobody can ignore.
- [37:40]
Scott Melker
Yeah. And it's just been crushing. Yeah. The result. Yeah. We always get the question though, by the way, and it's worth reiterating, like, what happens if we do go full Mike McGlone and it becomes a, we go into a recession and depression and we have 20% drawdown days on the S and P and things like that. People love to point out everybody's a genius in the bull market. Things are going up, you're outperforming. Great. Right? What happens when things go down?
- [38:10]
Tillman
So you can look at the software and you can analyze, based upon historical performance, the ratio between longs and shorts that are taken. So it works both ways. You just have to kind of pick your bias, if you will. So if price starts dropping, there's nothing that keeps the automation from taking advantage of those same opportunities on the drop. It's, it's bi directional, it doesn't care. Right. It's, it's more about the time frames that you want to work within. Right. So there's products that you can use on a daily basis and you're out every single, you know, before the closing bell, every single day. Well, that carries really no overnight risk. Right. You, you're sitting in cash every day versus there are swing strategies where those swing strategies carry positions over longer periods of time. If you're in a market that's exceptionally volatile, then you hedge towards the daily. If you're in a market that's not exceptionally volume volatile, then you can hedge more towards the hold strategies. So there's an infinite number of options. Again, this is a massive toolbox. And once you start knowing how to use the tools, it becomes very easy to use them appropriately is the way to put it. So.
- [39:28]
Scott Melker
Andrew, you're nodding.
- [39:30]
Andrew
Yeah, well, you know, it's, it's, we set up our products to be able to take long and short trades. You know, that's the Reader's digest version of what Tillman just said. And it's gonna, they're gonna evaluate all the data that the market's feeding them and, and, and decide to take either a long or, or short position. So one could say, you know, market agnostic, but again, as Tillman described, you know, having a multiplicity of products so that you can make decisions based on, I think we may be moving in this direction or moving in that direction. So I'm going to shade, you know, my capital to, you know, single day type of strategies or I'm going to shade in another direction to strategies that last a little bit longer or, or I'm going to shade my capital in a way that's more focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana and our crypto concierge package and being able to Take long and short trades and arbitrage those types of products in a way that either generate cash flow or build long term positions. So, you know, we, we've got a laundry list of algorithms and opportunities for folks. It's just a question of do they talk to us and what kind of capital are they willing to allocate that again, they have the opportunity to make decisions based on historical performance and benefit therein.
- [40:59]
Scott Melker
But now we have also beyond just the buy side. So obviously there's the concierge we've talked about and the gateway and all these different algorithms that you dig into. People, we've talked a lot of late about Gemini and the dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin. I just want to reiterate, there's also, you're also selling is being added dollar cost averaging out for those of you who don't want to die and burn your keys forever. And also some other products that are not just bitcoin that are coming for years.
- [41:32]
Andrew
Yeah, there's a subset of folks in the world, let's call it, especially in the crypto space, which have lived through different cycles. And so having the opportunity to say, you know what, whether or not Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana go through another cycle, that's a 50% dip, may or may not happen. But I don't think I want to live through that again. Right. I want to put myself in a position where if we're 10 to 15% dip, I'm lightening the load a little bit. I may have other instances inside of that algorithm that are still buying long term over periods of time. But I also have an instance inside of my, my crypto algorithm that's selling at different times. And so your. There's risk on both ends, right? There's risk on both ends and you're able to make decisions and then that decision is automated. You're not having to sit at your computer all day and sweat it out and figure out, am I selling at the top, am I selling at the middle, am I being dumb and following all the way down, what am I doing? Right. You're able to make decisions at a certain time and then allow those decisions to flatten out over periods of time. And then you can go on vacation, you can go where you want to. You're not obsessing about it is the point.
- [42:47]
Tillman
Well, you're having an extensive exposure. You can literally say, okay, I want to set up an instance where I'm buying Bitcoin, $300 a month, thousand dollars a month, a million Dollars, whatever that.
- [43:02]
Scott Melker
Threshold is, I want that one.
- [43:06]
Tillman
And if, if you are using that instance as kind of a savings account versus you can also have an instance that's set up that says anytime Bitcoin drops by 10% in a week, I want to buy some. How much do you want to buy? You set a dollar figure, you can set a percentage of your account. But it's again these tools that sit there and wait for the opportunities. It's like setting a lot of, you know, when you go tuna fishing, you don't just have one line out there waiting for the tuna to hit the line. You got 15 lines and they all have different baits on them. They're serving different purposes because that's how you catch the most fish. And so if I then have another instance that says, okay, if Bitcoin surges by 40% in a week, sell a huge chunk of it. Well, that's something that's gonna very rarely happen. Right. But if it does and you set that rule up, you're not thinking about it. It's taking advantage of that opportunity. When you were in a state of not being emotional because when the price rises by 40% in a week, you're emotional. And so it allows you to take the emotion out of these decisions and set rules that will be abided by. And so it's just a, you know, if you understand trading and, and how most, most of it's psychological.
- [44:27]
Andrew
And by the way, the great thing about our products and, and interfacing with them is you can set these things up and then take a look on trading view of what's going to happen if these things happen. What's, you could run reports.
- [44:40]
Tillman
Yeah.
- [44:42]
Andrew
What's the totality of my, you know, my stack or my account or the outcomes over a period of two years or three years or six months? You know, if I set these four rules up, what's going to happen six months from now or seven months? What does it look like? You know, back tested? So it's, it's, people are really, really responding to not only our futures based, fiat based products as they have, you know, over the past year, but now on the crypto side having access to multiple algorithms with multiple assets and then the ability to both buy and sell and set, set up arbitrage opportunities, generate cash flow. Powerful, powerful stuff. You know, we have folks that are really interested in taking the cash flow that, that happens on a monthly basis associated with our futures based products and taking that capital and putting it onto the crypto side and having rules and Instances generate returns and stack Bitcoin, stack Ethereum, stack Solana on that side with returns that they're getting from the other side. It's a really unique flywheel.
- [45:51]
Tillman
Well, it is very unique. And I would add that Bitcoin specifically, we said this at the beginning of the show, and I'll echo it again. It's a competitive delta that can't be ignored. And when you are looking at an algorithm that's allowing you to manage 50 different instances, plus as it relates to Bitcoin's price movement, there's just. We haven't seen anything that has the potency to make material change as to really get your arms around how to use instances and how to play with Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin's the magic, right? In my estimation, you can play on the future side, you can play on all the sides. Those sides are less predictable if history repeats itself than Bitcoin by a long shot. Bitcoin looks like this and it's not associated with inflation. Whereas the other ones have more risk attached to them because they're older assets. The bloom is off the rose. Bitcoin, we haven't even scratched the surface. So if you're interested in Bitcoin and you have no idea where to start, we have offered our Bitcoin algorithm for free. For if you sign up, you pay, I think, a cent to get it and you can play with it, you can call us, we'll help you play with it, we'll show you all how to set up instances and all the things that we're really proud of from a feature set perspective. And if you love it and you want to build it as a strategy inside of your, you know, your overall strategy, then that's when you'd come into the concierge program and we'd really get you integrated. So, yeah, it's. It's something that's not available right now. And I will tell you something else. We're building these tools not really for retail. Retail will be the beneficiaries of it because we're offering it to retail. But these tools that we're building are really answering exactly what Matt was talking about earlier. It's answering a need for very complex things to become very simple. Because when you start managing billions of dollars, you can't add complexity to your life. You need very simple things that you can set up and rely on and then those things will perform. And there, if you look at high frequency trading, however you want to characterize algorithmic trading, you can't execute faster than a computer can. You can't keep emotion out of it like a computer can. Like, there's just so many intangible benefits to using automation. That's why we've offered the product for free. We just want you to try it. And we'd love criticism. If you say, hey, we'd like this feature set. Email us.
- [48:45]
Scott Melker
We're.
- [48:45]
Tillman
We're. We're builders. We love to solve problems.
- [48:50]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think that about sums it up. Archpublic.com guys, check it out. I have to go do Twitter spaces and get rugged with Andrew. Like, every day something happens on Twitter that absolutely blows my mind. But yesterday we tried to do spaces, and five minutes into it, it just stopped, which happens once a week. And then we had to relaunch it. And now I have to go figure out how I got unhacked and hacked and rehacked. So, yeah, guys, check out archpublic.com, archpublic.com you may even get to talk to the Tillman. Andrew. I don't know. I don't know what could happen. Crazier things could happen, but these guys actually run this company.
- [49:29]
Tillman
We love to talk about it.
- [49:30]
Scott Melker
The. The performance has been absolutely exceptional, and they're only adding incredible new things every single day. That's all I got for you guys. I will see you next week. It was great getting Matt on here as well. Follow everybody here. It's down in the description. That's all we got. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you, Tillman. Feel better, buddy.
- [49:49]
Tillman
Thanks, Scott.
- [49:50]
Scott Melker
All right, guys. Bye.
- [49:52]
Tillman
Let's dope.