The Wolf Of All Streets – "Bitcoin Tumbles to $115K! Can The Rally Continue?"

Date: August 18, 2025
Host: Noel Acheson (standing in for Scott Melker)
Guests: Mike, Dave, and James (usual macro/crypto panel)

Episode Overview

This Macro Monday episode, guest-hosted by Noel Acheson, dives deep into the current state of the global macro economy, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s strategy going into the Jackson Hole summit, and what recent volatility in Bitcoin (now at $115K) and Ethereum really means for traders and investors. The team breaks down the mechanics behind recent price moves, the role of institutional adoption (especially with Larry Fink’s appointment as WEF head), and how risk sentiment is shifting as summer turns to fall. Thoughtful, occasionally heated debate abounds, particularly over the perceived "froth" in crypto markets and the future of altcoins.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Global Macro Backdrop and Fed Outlook

• Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Meeting: The main focus this week is on how Jerome Powell will frame the path forward, with most panelists expecting more "theater" than substance.

  • "Every single word and syllable he utters, he knows people are hanging on and markets will react to it." — James, [08:20]
  • Consensus: No near-term drastic moves. Powell will likely hint at the possibility of dovish policy but refrain from concrete promises.
  • “He’ll open the door to a 25 basis point cut. But he will pretty much shut the door on a 50 basis point cut.” — James, [09:50]

• Macro Risks and Seasonality:

  • The panel sees fall and winter as high-risk periods for stocks and risk assets (like crypto). Volatility is expected to increase.
  • “If I were to rate probability of a crash, it is a double digit integer, probably a low double digit integer but still a double digit.” — Dave, [18:32]

• Global Coordinated Policy:

  • Subdued oil prices are seen as a result of coordinated geopolitical moves.
  • “Geopolitics are completely coordinated towards lower oil prices at least for now.” — Mike, [04:15]

2. Commodities and Market Structure

• Gold vs. Bitcoin:
  • Mike notes the historically extreme gold/crude ratios and remains bullish on gold, seeing it outperforming Bitcoin if risk sours.
  • “I think it’s much more likely that gold’s going to outperform bitcoin if the stock market backs up a little bit.” — Mike, [02:53]
• “Excess” and Systemic Risk:
  • Mike warns of mass speculative excesses, likening the current mood to the top of past bubbles (dot-com, LTCM, Japan ‘89).
  • Dave pushes back, noting there’s little evidence of margin buying or leverage in Bitcoin currently:
    “There is no froth in any measure, in any metric in bitcoin other than maybe price...” — Dave, [45:06]

3. Crypto Market Structure: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins

• Bitcoin as a Risk Asset & Institutional Flows

  • Despite the price drop to $115K, Bitcoin is still range-bound on low volume with institution-sized orders absorbed with little difficulty.
  • Institutional adoption—especially the impact of Bitcoin ETFs and firms like MicroStrategy—is a major talking point.
  • MicroStrategy’s role as a “volatility seller” is flagged as a possible hidden source of future volatility via a potential “gamma squeeze.”
    • “There are a lot of shorts piling up... If bitcoin volatility picks up, just volatility picks up, the whole thing is going to create a gamma squeeze.” — Dave, [31:00]
  • Bitcoin’s fundamental case is driven by steady adoption rather than speculative froth.
    • “The bitcoin driver is adoption. That’s the only thing that matters. Other than that, we’re in a trading range.” — Dave, [29:13]

• Ethereum’s Recent Rally

  • The ETH surge is attributed to trend-following traders (momentum), big inflows (thanks in part to Tom Lee), and excitement over potential stablecoin and tokenization use cases.
  • Caution is issued: higher risk, more uncertainty regarding its fundamentals compared to Bitcoin.
    • “When the market starts pricing the risk of ether the same as Bitcoin, it’s fundamentally wrong.” — Dave, [34:50]

• Altcoin Season Debate

  • Panel is skeptical that Ethereum’s pump heralds a new “alt season.”
  • Must-watch: If Bitcoin rips higher, altcoins could follow, but current volumes and engagement are anemic.
    • “This drawdown this weekend from bitcoin was again, it was on anemic volumes. It’s a buyer strike, not a herd of sellers.” — James, [51:15]
  • “Altcoin season is really just an excessive amount of momentum playing in the market...” — Dave, [54:00]

4. Larry Fink, Institutional Adoption, and Tokenization

• Fink as WEF Head:
  • His pro-Bitcoin, pro-tokenization stance gives the asset new legitimacy with global leaders.
  • “If you have BlackRock in this position… these leaders are going to have no choice but to hear it. It’s going to be all over the place.” — James, [40:15]
  • Mike notes Fink is “selling shovels” in the gold rush, benefiting from ETFs and product demand regardless of market direction.
  • Skepticism remains about whether Bitcoin is ready to share a “reserve asset” status with gold; “Prudent investors don’t just buy highs and try to put treasury and Bitcoin in the same sentence, which is an oxymoron…” — Mike, [43:30]

5. Crowded Trades & Market Sentiment

• Bank of America Fund Manager Survey:
  • For the first time this cycle, “long crypto” is ranked as a “most crowded trade,” though at much lower levels than during previous euphorias.
  • “Only 9% of respondents voted [long crypto] as the most crowded trade, whereas 12% said long gold…” — Noel, [46:21]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Fed Theater and Market Impact:
  “It’s sad, it’s all theater. The reality is, they are going to print money in order to fund fiscal deficits—that is them and all the other central bankers.” — Dave, [12:30]
• On Risk in Stock Markets:
  “This fall is a high-risk season from a market’s point of view. Full stop.” — Dave, [18:27]
• On Bitcoin and Mainstreaming:
  “For Bitcoin in particular, I think it’s very important because it brings it straight onto the biggest stage... they have no choice but to hear why Larry Fink thinks this is an important asset.” — James, [39:15]
• On Market Euphoria/Froth:
  “There is no froth in any measure, in any metric in bitcoin other than maybe price. There’s certainly no leverage in the system.” — Dave, [45:06]
• On Crypto Volatility:
  “Volatility in bitcoin terms is approaching the extreme low. That is what is depressing the prices of MicroStrategy complex.” — Dave, [29:36]
• On Altcoin Season:
  “Altcoin season is really just an excessive amount of momentum playing in the market.” — Dave, [54:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:46] – Macro Mood & Bloomberg Round-Up (Mike)
• [04:15] – Geopolitics and Oil: Coordination for Lower Prices
• [07:00] – What To Expect from Jackson Hole (James)
• [12:26] – Skepticism Over Fed Predictive Power; Larry Fink & Institutional Impact (Dave)
• [19:33] – Are Markets Priced for Volatility? The September/October Risk
• [23:31] – Looking Ahead: What Will Be the Big Change in 1 Year? (James)
• [29:11] – Key Drivers: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum & Microstrategy/Volatility
• [36:27] – WEF, BlackRock, and the Bitcoin Institution Thesis
• [43:30] – Mike’s Counterpoint: Bubbles, Gold vs. Crypto, Systematic Risk
• [45:02] – Dave’s Pushback: Where’s the Froth?
• [46:21] – Fund Manager Survey: Is Crypto a Crowded Trade?
• [50:18] – Does ETH Run Signal Altcoin Season?
• [55:02] – Final Takes: Jackson Hole Predictions

Closing Takeaways

• Jackson Hole Watch: The Friday event is expected to be "more of the same"—no fireworks, but parsing Powell’s words for hints is still vital.
• Bitcoin Outlook: Remains a risk asset in the eyes of institutions—rangebound, with systemic adoption slowly but steadily climbing.
• Ethereum and Alts: Enjoying temporary rallies, but high risk and not necessarily a sign of a new cycle (yet).
• Macro Risks: Autumn could bring significant volatility—both in traditional and crypto markets.
• Institutional Legitimacy: With figures like Fink lending credibility, Bitcoin is entering the central bank asset conversation, but caution remains warranted.

For listeners wanting a pulse on both Wall Street and crypto attitudes toward the coming months, this episode is rich with big-picture thinking, entertaining snark, and practical takeaways for investors and policymakers alike.