Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets - "Bitcoin Vs. Trump: Trade Wars, Policy Shifts, & Crypto’s Uncertain Future"

Host: Scott Melker
Guest: MLW
Release Date: April 11, 2025

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker engages in a deep dive conversation with MLW about the tumultuous intersection of Bitcoin, geopolitical tensions, and shifting financial policies. The discussion navigates through recent market volatility influenced by Donald Trump's actions, the ongoing trade war with China, Bitcoin's resilience, and significant regulatory changes affecting the crypto landscape.

1. Introduction and Market Overview

The episode kicks off with Scott Melker highlighting the unprecedented market volatility following "Liberation Day," a period marked by erratic movements across major financial indices and assets.

• Scott Melker [00:00]: "Market volatility has been absolutely insane over the past few weeks since Liberation Day. The S&P, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, dollar, and everything else move at the whim of Donald Trump and any comment or tweet that he makes."

MLW concurs, noting a scarcity of dominant news stories due to the overwhelming impact of a single, pervasive issue.

• MLW [00:56]: "We have a shocking lack of news stories to talk about because there's only one thing that's dominating everything right now."

2. Impact of Donald Trump and Trade Wars

The conversation shifts to the central role of Donald Trump in current market dynamics, emphasizing how his policies and unpredictable statements are leading to market instability.

• Scott Melker [01:45]: "It's all a result of this, right? Generally, tariffs. But the bigger story here is the indecision around tariffs, the 50/50 split views on what each of Trump's moves means."

MLW elaborates on the complexities of the trade negotiations with China, highlighting China's aggressive tariff increases and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts amid rising inflation fears.

• MLW [02:34]: "China is still on, like Donkey Kong. And the rest of the week has been basically digesting the tit-for-tat escalation of that very specific piece of the story, which is China versus the US."

3. Market Reactions and Policy Shifts

Scott and MLW analyze the broader market reactions, including declining risk assets, soaring yields, and the unexpected performance of traditionally safe-haven assets like gold.

• Scott Melker [01:04]: "Risk is down. Stocks are down, Nasdaq's down, S&P is down. Bitcoin's down from the highs earlier in the year, but also the dollar is down."

• MLW [05:19]: "We're not only playing with live ammunition, we're playing with entire arsenals all at the same time. And no one has, there's no precedent."

They discuss the Federal Reserve's inability to influence yields traditionally and the resulting challenges in refinancing debt and providing economic relief.

• Scott Melker [06:25]: "The classic tools that you utilize to get yields down are just not working."

4. Bitcoin's Performance Amid Volatility

Turning to Bitcoin, the hosts observe its steady behavior compared to volatile tech stocks, suggesting a maturation of the cryptocurrency amidst broader market chaos.

• Scott Melker [07:54]: "Bitcoin's recent drawdown proves it's more than just a leverage tech play. Despite a 26% drop from all-time highs, Bitcoin holds steady compared to leading tech stocks, signaling increasing maturity."

MLW adds that Bitcoin's diverse holder base contributes to its resilience, as different segments react uniquely to market pressures.

• MLW [09:31]: "Bitcoin is not an either-or asset. It's a both-and asset. And it's got a big weird coalition of buyers and holders now."

5. Regulatory Changes and Crypto Industry Moves

The discussion shifts to significant regulatory developments, highlighting positive changes such as the confirmation of Paul Atkins leading the SEC and the dismantling of the DOJ's crypto enforcement team.

• Scott Melker [14:29]: "We've got pro-bitcoiners in literally every seat of power, whether financial or otherwise. Now the DOJ has a new mandate for their enforcement team. This is absolutely incredible."

MLW emphasizes the strategic implications of these regulatory shifts, suggesting they pave the way for greater institutional participation in crypto.

• MLW [16:52]: "The tradfi world coming together with the crypto native world and participating in the form of these institutional alliances is a very positive sign."

6. IPOs and Traditional Finance in Crypto

Examining the intersection of traditional finance and crypto, Scott and MLW discuss Anchorage Digital's partnership with BlackRock and Galaxy Digital's move to become a Delaware corporation, signaling deeper integration between the sectors.

• Scott Melker [19:43]: "Anchorage Digital becomes the newest digital asset service provider for BlackRock... They will now be participating in the custody of all of BlackRock's digital assets, including some of the ETF assets."

• MLW [20:50]: "This has been in a long time in the works for these guys and it just hasn't been the right time yet. Now there's still some progress to be made."

Conversely, the episode touches on the cautious approach of companies like Circle, which are delaying IPOs amidst economic uncertainty.

• Scott Melker [21:38]: "Circle is considering an IPO delay with the economic uncertainty and all the tariffs... other companies like Klarna and StubHub are also hitting pause."

MLW connects these delays to a broader freeze in risk assets, affecting venture capital and startup funding.

• MLW [22:12]: "There's a big freeze in risk assets. Every VC that I know that was trying to raise funds is now freaking out because LPs are all sitting on their hands."

7. Conclusion and Future Outlook

In wrapping up, Scott reflects on the enduring uncertainty, emphasizing the continued market volatility influenced by Trump's actions and the unpredictable trade war.

• Scott Melker [25:14]: "Bitcoin's behavior, NASDAQ swings, and the overall market turmoil suggest we’re in uncharted territory. Maybe there's a master plan, but for now, expect continued insane volatility."

MLW underscores the unique resilience of the crypto community, suggesting that emotional and psychological fortitude within the crypto sector positions it well to navigate ongoing turbulence.

• MLW [26:03]: "Crypto people are best, at least emotionally or psychologically situated for this type of volatility."

The hosts conclude with a cautious optimism, acknowledging the challenges ahead while recognizing the strategic shifts that could shape the future of both traditional finance and the crypto industry.

• Scott Melker [26:26]: "I can't wait to see what we're talking about next week. But my bingo card says tariffs."

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker [00:00]: "Market volatility has been absolutely insane over the past few weeks since Liberation Day."
• MLW [02:34]: "China versus the US is still on, like Donkey Kong."
• Scott Melker [07:54]: "Bitcoin holds steady compared to leading tech stocks, signaling increasing maturity."
• MLW [16:52]: "The tradfi world coming together with the crypto native world... is a very positive sign."
• Scott Melker [25:14]: "Expect continued insane volatility."
• MLW [26:03]: "Crypto people are best... situated for this type of volatility."

Key Takeaways:

1. Dominance of Trade Wars: Donald Trump's tariffs and the U.S.-China trade war are the primary drivers of recent market instability.
2. Market Volatility: Traditional and risk assets are experiencing unprecedented swings, with yields rising despite expectations they would fall.
3. Bitcoin's Resilience: Despite significant drawdowns, Bitcoin exhibits stability relative to volatile tech stocks, indicating its growing maturity.
4. Regulatory Shifts: Positive changes within regulatory bodies like the SEC and DOJ are fostering a more favorable environment for crypto institutions.
5. Traditional Finance Integration: Increased collaboration between traditional financial institutions and crypto-native companies signals a merging of sectors.
6. IPO Delays: Economic uncertainty and market volatility are causing major companies to postpone IPOs, reflecting broader risk asset freezes.
7. Future Outlook: The crypto community's resilience may offer advantages in navigating ongoing market turbulence, but continued volatility is expected.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the intricate interplay between geopolitical tensions, market dynamics, and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency regulation and integration with traditional finance. Scott Melker and MLW offer insightful perspectives on the challenges and opportunities facing the crypto industry amidst an era of uncertainty and rapid change.