← The Wolf Of All Streets
Loading summary
Transcript94 lines
- [00:02]
A
Is this bitcoin's biggest test yet? Michael Sailor did what he said he was going to do and sold thousands of bitcoin to raise cash and to fund dividends on the preferred stock offerings. But that's not all that's happening in the world and it is after all, macro Monday. We'll dig into everything happening with Mike, Dave and Peter Cheer. Let's go. Let's do. Good morning everybody. Happy Monday and welcome to the show. Going to go ahead and bring on Mike and Dave now. We got Peter Cheer joining very soon. Good morning gentlemen. How are you?
- [00:53]
B
Good morning.
- [00:54]
C
Good morning Mike.
- [00:55]
A
Let's start with the morning.
- [00:57]
B
Yes Andrew Sasha our ECOM has came on and pointed out the week unemployment is probably going to take anything type of July hike off the table. He expects the Fed to hold the rest of the year FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday expects him to be hawkish but they're three weeks stale next key day will be July 14th. The next couple of weeks get CPI and the chairman's first Humphrey Hawkins testimony and he expects the Fed to cut next year. That's a Bloomberg Economics view. Ira Jersey came on CPI retail sales and big reports he's looking forward to next year auctions the tens, the threes, tens and thirties will be the ones this week to matter he thinks tens are pretty good around 450 and people keep coming in to buy the 30 around 5% his key quote was it's no Fed this year and inflation's to
- [01:53]
C
roll over
- [01:55]
B
that fit into my commodity outlook he thinks the two year note needs yields too high expects it to be below 4% and the 10 year old fair value is around 442Wendy Song equities came just pointed out how earnings have been a blowout 30% growth in Q1 greatest since post Covid consensus for 24% growth going forward Balance sheets are supportive of the bullish trend so not much new there and Audrey chilled Freeman or FX strategy point out how dollar longs are very stretched and short yen positions are very stretched She's a bit concerned but she thinks the yen can get to 165 and I'll go very terse I point out my commodity outlook is backing up on what Ira pointed out is we have a pumped and dump trend trend we should be rolling continue to roll over this year in commodities Bloomberg One index was up 28% its peak now it's only up 9% and stock market's up 10% and we're just a whole commodity sector is a complete Sock puppet. I see it to the stock market and I expect it more likely to head lower. So I just point out crude oil 68 was first traded in 2005. It's a non event. Energy should continue lower. What does Trump need that should happen? Metals are reverting, particularly gold. Gold's below its 200 day moving average. I see that as a market that's rolled over and will be done forever. Not forever, for a long time. I mean, and I've been bullish for decades. And the only thing that's really kind of up a little bit is the grains. But again, a lot of rain. Back to you,
- [03:26]
A
Dave. Any thoughts on any of that? Right now we're trying to get Peter on.
- [03:30]
C
Yeah, I mean look, two things saying he doesn't expect to hike now. I mean I, I just, I have to laugh. I mean the, the, the odds of the Federal Reserve hiking into this economy in this situation is, in, is, is, it's been wrong. I've been saying it's wrong. I'm not going to change my mind. I think that the next direction is down. Whether that they do that via actually cutting the rates or just increasing liquidity. Their goal is to fund their, our ridiculous deficits and we are not going anywhere with those deficits. It's, it's simply, it's just, it's almost unfathomable. And every time we talk about prices of assets, I just come back to the denominator point. You know, there's more dollars, there's more yen, there's more euro than ever before and expecting that, that denominated in those things. For if you're calling for prices to stay the same, that means you think that there's deflation in the cost of producing those things. And that doesn't exist except in the case of things that could be produced via technology. So oil, for example, with fracking has come down. We understand that it's still trading well above the cost of production and it's going to trend towards some margin over the cost of production. Unless that, you know, the whole peace deal falls apart and blah, blah, blah, blah. And Peter can talk about that far more eloquently than I can. You know, technology is doing what technology does, which is it's deflationary. But services and everything that you can't use technology to produce, well, guess what? Prices of that continue to move up. Why? Because we're producing more dollars. You know, it's the one thing Peter Schiff and I agree on, that we talked about last week. It's Just it's that. So every time I hear Mike taught say, well, gold is going to go nowhere for decade. You know, the last time gold did nothing for decades. You know, we've printed more money in the last five years than all of those decades combined. And so that's really the issue. So adjusted for, for dollar growth and you know, just currency growth or fiat currency growth, I would agree with Mike, but that you can't make that assessment because that's not what people are looking at. And so that's, that's the fundamental part of where I disagree. Is it a slave to the stock market? I mean, yes, absolutely, in a sense. I mean the stock market is. Why is there. Because human beings cannot afford to save in savings accounts anymore. You know, if you want to preserve your wealth, you have to invest in something. So you know, and we all know, you know, we make the, we joke about this all the time, Scott. We say, you know, hey, they made recessions illegal. Well, no, they haven't made recessions illegal. What they've done is they realize that the economy is being propped up by the wealth effect. And so God help us if we let that reverse in a material sense for a long time. I mean we can have volatility. We saw that with the tariff tantrums, et cetera, et cetera over the last few years. But every time that people expect that, okay, now this is going to be the great unraveling. What's happened. Well, they've injected liquidity into the market, yada, yada, yada, and off we go again. And here we are studying at all time highs. The Fed's not going to cut while we're at all time highs and all that. Good. They're just going to let things go. But if it looks to be falling, well, you know, you'll see what happens. That's sort of my thought process. Peter, you look, we can see you now. You were blurry before, but it looks okay now.
- [07:04]
D
Perfect. Yeah. It's been a long day in a hotel in Norwalk, Connecticut because we have no power Internet at home. So it's a bit of a scramble.
- [07:12]
C
Why do you have no power and Internet at home?
- [07:15]
D
New Canaan got hit pretty hard. There was a storm that came through right during fireworks, I think.
- [07:20]
A
Oh yeah.
- [07:20]
D
Percent of our town was out of power. So yeah, not a good day to be in the northeast, I guess.
- [07:26]
C
Yeah, yeah, we had, we, man, we all got drenched on, on the third. There was this freak storm that came up. It was, it was wild. It literally started as the first firework exploded, the storm kicked up and they just kept going.
- [07:41]
A
So I blame Trump.
- [07:45]
C
Well, there are people who are blaming, you know, they're saying if, if you wanted, if you were going to cook, if you were going to capably do create a, use magic to do something to wash out the fireworks around the Northeast, I'm not sure you could have done a better job than they actually did. Which was, which was really, it was just, the timing was, was just incredible. But anyway, sorry.
- [08:08]
A
I blame England. All right, so let's talk about the big topic today. I know we don't usually dive right into it, but I mean this, you know, Michael Saylor selling bitcoin I think is a, is a relevant place to start. Michael Saylor's strategy dramatically ups pace of bitcoin sales, raising $260 million sold 3,588 bitcoin last week to replenish its dollar reserves for dividends on its preferred stock. So I mean, I think it's fair to say we had one of those weekend pumps which we never trust anyways and now kind of reverting a bit. But the market sideways ish on this, right, 61,700 right now. Nothing devastating, but he alluded to maybe doing it. I thought maybe he would pause and do nothing for a while, to be quite honest. So I was actually a bit surprised when I woke up and saw this. I don't know if your guys reaction is the same, but I thought that last week he kind of put a framework in order that said we can kick the can down the road 18 months. I thought that they might just remain very silent for a few weeks and allow themselves to not be the main characters. But here we are with a pretty sizable sale. It's a rounding error for their position, but it's a, it's a real thing.
- [09:17]
C
So can I start with this one? Because this, this is, I have two thoughts and they're, they're, they are, you know, positive and negative. The net. Let's start with the negative. I mean I, I think that the way they trade is sophomoric. I've said this before, I will continue to say this. If I were in a room with Fong Li, I would basically be treating him like I used to treat my PhD, brilliant analysts in the quant teams who would make incredibly bad decisions or try to and misunderstand how markets work. I mean they, they are in serious need of, of market help. I'm not going to lie. And I, you know, I know you know them, I just I, I can't phrase it any other way but that being said, it is been a bad, and I mean very bad trading strategy to buy. When MicroStrategy announces their buy, that's generally the day of the announcement is the high for the week or very close to it and you generally fade it. Well, I see absolutely no reason to believe that this would be any different in reverse. So selling after they've sold, I mean what does that mean? I mean they now have, they're now back to the cash reserve they had before they made the bad decision to buy back their convertible bonds and now they have a year.
- [10:34]
A
So people don't point five five billion. So it's well over a year. I think it's, that's pushing, right. 19, 20 months. Right.
- [10:42]
C
But the point is they don't need to sell anything. And I think that if you look at it objectively you could say, okay, this proved that they don't, you know what they can do, that the market liquidity is there. The beneficiary of what MicroStrategy did last week are bitcoin lenders and bitcoin as collateral because it effectively proves it. Right. You know, and it also proves that people didn't know, can't tell what they're doing until after they tell you what they've done. And those two facts are really important facts for the bitcoin market. I mean people who think that they can trade in, you know, by front running them tend to be not front running them because no one knew this. I mean I didn't see any hint of this last week. So and this is something stuff that this was done last week. I mean make no mistake, it was not done over the weekend. I mean there's a lot of numbnuts on on X who think that it was done over the weekend, but it wasn't. So those are the two thoughts. I mean look, they're trading capabilities, you know, whatever. But if you look at it from their perspective in aftermath they took a big realized loss which is going to help with their tax, which is going to help with taxation and they're now funded so there's no reason for micro strategy to be a drag on, on Bitcoin is no reason to believe anything other fact that if bitcoin rises they will be able to pyramid in because of the, you know, the quality of their balance sheet, etc. Etc. So to me it's not a big deal. It is however indicative. It's much more of a big deal for MicroStrategy stock than it is for bitcoin. I think at this point, I think it's actually net positive for bitcoin that it happened and people didn't know. I hope that all makes sense, Scott.
- [12:19]
A
Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's why there, there is a, hey, maybe this is good news thing. Right? He's selling, market's fine. And now we can dispense with the he's only the only buyer in the market narrative and the, the fear. Right.
- [12:33]
C
So I, Yeah, I mean look, there's, there's, there's strength in the crypto market over the weekend. I mean, if you look, I mean the fact that, that bitcoin sold off on this, this sailor news while Ethereum and Salana really didn't is in hyper liquid. Certainly didn't is interesting. Right. You know, it's just, look, it's green shoots very, very, very early green shoots of capital rotation. And I, I actually, I'm more like Mike. I, I don't think much is going to happen, at least for the summer. I don't think much is going to happen over the next couple of months. But, you know, you know, we shall see. But it certainly is. I wouldn't have guessed this would have been the reaction.
- [13:17]
A
Yeah, I mean, just, I want to go to everybody else, but just so you can see Glass note here saying there altcoin cycle signal update. The altcoin signal remains firmly in altcoin season. This is strength beyond the denominator effect we described last month. So, yeah, I mean, just the idea that. Yes. I feel like is this all coin season in the room with us right now? Because it seems like everything's dead still. But there is relative strength there, even in these moments, I guess. So, Mike, Peter, any thoughts on Saylor here?
- [13:47]
D
Yeah, I'll hop in for one quick sec. Again, I think my view has always been that for crypto to really kind of flourish again, all these digital asset treasury companies need to take a step back. Right. Anywhere that we're actually doing more than accumulation. Strategy can be useful. Right. If they're trying to do something with their digital assets. Feels to me Saylor really is just a digital asset or bitcoin accumulation company. I think the more backseat they take to the market, the better base that will form. I'm not sure that we're done with some of the problems, but I think versus his impact on the markets today, versus three weeks ago or a month and a half ago, it's diminished. And I think the more that diminishes, the more Tom Lee stuff diminishes we can build a real base that isn't just staring over their shoulders trying to figure out his strategy, adding or not is strategy selling or not. So I, I think there's probably still more downside to go and I think they should be a little bit further diminished from the narrative. But they got to be the entire narrative to some degree that was bad. So I think this is good. And maybe it forces some of the digital asset treasury companies to actually go through with plans to be creative in how they use their currencies. Do they trade in and around those currencies? What can they do rather than just accumulate and leverage? Because I think that game's over.
- [15:00]
B
Mike, I just want to reiterate what Dave said to remind all our listeners and viewers that cryptos are in a severe serious beer market market should continue. Number one reason is part of it because we've got a lot of smart people who are not focusing on the forest through the trees. Number one thing is also rapidly advancing technologies so bearish for cryptos because there's an unlimited supply of cryptos now we have to purge those are in the process of purging those. Just getting started. Bitcoin's just one of them. Just the fact that it's done this year is a good indication that it's probably going to go towards 10,000. And we need to get Michael Saylor stopped out. There's only one thing that matters for him right now. Bitcoin has to go up. Simple fact. Let's put it there. And it's going down despite stock market going up. So other things I've already stopped going up. But some metals, the metals have rolled over. They're in the pump and jump syndrome. That's gold, silver, platinum, palladium, including iron ore and potentially aluminum's on that list. It was up 1720 percent on the year. Now it's almost up 3%. That's nothing going to stop that in the stock market going down in pressure at all. So this is just getting started and I don't see why we should continue to fight it by buying into a bear market that has unlimited supply and it's best leading indicator on the way up. And he the leader, it's heading down. So and I just to reiterate my views on gold, I was considered a gold permeable for decades. But last year, this quarter, this year was a lifetime to sell. And typically what happens in markets when they go up this much, some of us who are trading palladium many years ago is they will Stick do that. They'll shift supply, demand, balances. They're all focused on the narrative. Dave didn't mention that we, some of us focused on five years ago. They've all focused on the same thing that Dave and, and Peter Schiff can get off of chat GBT and everybody gets. It's all the same thing. And that's when you're supposed to say thank you. Was it a good rally? Should it continue higher? Yes, thank you. Well, money printing is like, you know, six year olds get that. So move on that. Move on to the indications that are past critical thinking. And that is, that's typically how these things work. When you go up this much, when you give someone the best year of 40 years and performance and things like gold, silver and some other metals, they typically stick in ranges for an enduring period. So I'm sticking with that. I think gold might get the 5,000, but I don't. You're supposed to trade it no longer just buy and hold it maybe good place to buy around 3,000 bitcoin. I still have the same levels. Maybe you can get the 200 day moving average around 75,000. You look to sell. Even gold's below its 200 day moving average and everything this is, this is a lifetime historic event is everything I look at now is completely dependent on the stock market going up. It's July, it's summer, it's supposed to go up. It's completely priced in. Where's trade? Certainly not joining that party.
- [17:54]
C
The, the, the two rejoinders and like one, I just don't want to talk about this notion of infinite supply. We have an infinite supply of all financial assets. Companies come and go. We have thousands of OTC companies. You know, some ODC company worth whatever has no impact on Amazon or Google or whatever or Alphabet, whatever we call it these days. I don't give a crap. I mean I think that that's just nuts. But the, the, the fact is there are crypto assets out there that exist solely because of the ability of people to trade them that are not allowed to trade stocks. And the cost of creating a crypto asset to trade is dramatically lower. And so yes, there is a bunch more shit relative to the total supply. That is true. But I don't think it's very hard for people to figure that out. And the markets take a long time to figure it out. I mean hell, in crypto we had. I'll never forget the fact that BitConnect was literally labeled a scam on CoinMarketCap. And what was the other one, crypto compare at the time was literally labeled a scam on the website. So while it had a market cap of over a billion dollars, of course it predictably went to zero. But it is what it is, right? These are the sorts of things that happen. As far as the gold comment, I think that it is really important to understand that when you look at gold over the last 50 years, that the global money supply has roughly grown by 23 times. So over a 50 year period, a 23 time X it would be gold meant 50 years ago. If it isn't up 23 times would be a serious, serious underperformance given what gold is supposed to be in terms of a monetary asset. But what has gold done? It's done more. If you pick 50 years, it's up somewhere in the neighborhood of 20, basically 30 times. So it's slightly outperformed. If you go 20 years, you're talking about gold outperforming by more. It just picks that if you do 10 years, it's by more. And so the question really is, okay, that's stated money supply. And all of those numbers indicate that people, depending on where your starting point was, is what matters. The World Gold Council will tell you that gold was dramatically undervalued at the start of those periods. And Mike would have said the same thing. The point is that looking at a chart, it needs to be devalued, it needs to be normalized by that number. And so I constantly made the point that I thought that based on I'm pulling it out of my ass, but I went through some math to do it. I thought that the actual equilibrium point of gold relative to the supply of money at the time at this year is somewhere around 4,500. And I was saying that when it was at 5,500 and I'm saying it when it's at 4,100. I don't really give a crap. I mean, it's kind of in this range. Gold should do no more than go up by the amount of money. If it does by much more, then it means that people are losing confidence in future value of that money. And that's really the point where bitcoin lives. And so we'll see how that all works out. So look, am I a gold bull? Yeah, I'm a gold bull relative to Mike, because I think they're going to keep printing money. But is he right that the speculative fervor is likely not to reappear for a while? Yeah, I think he absolutely is right. So I Think it's a complicated way of looking at it. Sorry for the long winded explanation, Scott.
- [21:39]
D
Peter Yeah, I wanted to go back. Mike, I'm kind of with you. Like what's going to make this market roll over or do something? Because I think first, everything is tied to equities right now and even within equities it's tied to a relatively small handful of things. I think we got really three pieces of information Thursday that I think are kind of important. I think first and foremost, like Meta actually announced the selling of quote unquote excess compute. And you know, the positive spin would be they built up this compute and they can get more money selling it to whatever agentic AI company. But until that time all we've been talking about is you can't spend enough on this, you can't have enough computer. All of a sudden is this kind of a Metaverse type pivot where he was all in on the Metaverse stock? Loved it for a while, then hated it. Is something going on there? I think Apple now, when they raised prices the week before, you saw their stock come off. Telling you, I think even high end consumers are kind of getting tired of this. They went though and asked for permission to use Chinese chips, phones to be sold in China. So very restrictive I think. But again, I think that's a sign that all this inflationary pressure that's been building from the data centers AI is starting to filter into consumer products. Right. They were able to hide it or it was barely a budge. And everyone's only been talking about electricity. Now you're seeing chips, RAM, etc. Computer prices. Is that another potential thing? And then OpenAI is talking about quote unquote giving the US government 5%. And I was all in on Intel. I loved intel and partly because the US government owned this, but we just potentially had a delay. And when they're ipoing than this, like to me it feels like is there you could spend either of these positive or negative, all these. There's a part of me that's like saying is this a top? And are we starting to see some little bit of exposure and we're cracking a little bit like with the fiber. And then of course I like my good friend Dan Ives, love him a lot, but he's just left Wet Bush to start his own company. You know, sometimes you see these signals as a potential short term market top. So I'm a little bit nervous coming into this and I think Thursday's price action will return and we're going to see some Weakness as people really start questioning are we getting value for this compute and where's the next build out stage?
- [23:52]
B
Well, I think just to piggyback on that. What's piggybacking? Also I have to quote Jim Chanos on this because he really helped me stay very bearish. Bitcoin and microstrategy last year. It was nice to have him on board. Just like it was great to have Michael Saylor on board. When I was bullish bitcoin it was at 10,000. But the key thing you point out is now finally have supply meeting demand in stocks. With all the IPO rush, it's very much what's happened with cryptos and ETFs. Some of us fully expected that to put in the peak. Yeah, it was a bit early, but that's going to be marking a peak. The key point. Now I just look from all the stuff I look at, like even copper cannot be bullish. Any metal, copper, you know, almost all of them unless you expect stock market to go up and they're way underperforming higher volatility. So to me it's just an accident waiting to happen. But it's a tremendous trading opportunity. I'll stick with that focus for the year. It's people are getting so caught up in a bear market. Bear markets are great for trading and Scott always points out you get the best short covering rallies, get everybody bullish. Bitcoin above 75,000 here we're at 61 and they're still to fight it. Just trade, trade and wait for the opportunities, wait for the next bounce to sell. And that's just one of them. But the key thing is he the leader. Bitcoin led the way up, it's leading the way down. It's just getting started. So I'd like to point out the pump and dump syndrome is really accelerating. First it was just us Bitcoin and US natural gas. Now it's gold, silver, platinum, palladium, iron ore, corn and aluminum is right on that list, just waiting. Copper is just waiting. Crude oils just 19% away, it was up 100%. This is a 2008 type scenario. It's a tremendous trading environment. And just remember what happened in 2008. We had the Olympics in Beijing, this year we had the World Cup. It disturbs, distorts people. Then you go back to trading and think about as we enter to the end of this year, I think it's going to be a classic deflationary trend and it's already starting in commodities.
- [25:40]
A
Did you guys see this HK Hynix story, obviously this is the company that's been basically beneficiary of all the South Korean FOMO that they were telling the stories about. Basically the retirees selling off all of their insurance and savings to get in at the top of the AI bubble. And they launched a number of highly leveraged ETFs over there. And a month later the regulator said we shouldn't have launched those just for some context. But Now South Korea's SK Hynix launches 28 billion US listing to ride global AI waves. So doing a massive offering on the NASDAQ here in the United States to raise more capital. I don't know, this reminds me of when all the bitcoin miners at the top of the last cycle bought every asics and piece of equipment they could at the highest possible price before the market sold off. But these are the kind of things, you know, that as we see sort of this AI situation potentially topping here, that could contribute massively to this. Also another news on the bitcoin side, this literally just happened. Terra Wolf is one of the bigger, bigger publicly traded miners signs 19 billion lease with anthropic for AI infrastructure campus. So clearly bitcoin miners becoming AI data centers here. And that's up I think about 15% pre market on the news. But you know, the AI trade is really, you know, you're seeing a historic sell off I think in the Mag seven last week. And still, you know, all this retail money being kind of sucked into AI. It's an interesting situation.
- [27:13]
D
Yeah. And one of my complaints and long term theories is always that market infrastructure right now is a bit of a disaster. Right. It creates this real perception of liquidity. But you have these single stock leverage ETFs. I think that's a big part of what's played on. You have index leveraged ETFs. You know, the Sox L has had huge inflows, it's huge size, all these things I think you throw in zero date expiration options, they tend to accelerate moves in either direction. And what I always find funny is when it's helping things move higher, it's all because every analyst and every investor super smart and they completely ignore the fact that there was this additional impetus that comes from a kind of faulty multi market structure that tends to overemphasize moves, the reverse happens just as quickly. And I think we've seen a little bit of piece of that a few days, right? We have 3 or 4% down moves. We've had some bigger moves. I think we are very susceptible to some sort of market momentum type thing triggering all these leveraged PT caps, the 0 day expiration options, all these things that have helped force things to the upside. Everyone's going to complain. It's all technicals, it's all this. It's all the same people who didn't say it was all technicals on the way up. So there's, there's always some element of this that I think gets pushed higher. But when you're right or it's going up, it's because I'm smart. When it's down, it's because everyone else is stupid. I think we're kind of setting up for that sort of thing. And like you say, I'm old enough to remember when every month someone was reporting stock buybacks and who was going to announce stock buybacks. Right. It was one of the most everyone wanted to know when are the windows for the big tech companies on their stock buybacks? Two years ago maybe all of a sudden that's reversed. Right. So that was definitely a tailwind the market had for a long time that I'm not sure if it's quite a headwind yet, but it's moving that direction. So I think all these things are pulling back and I think Mike's kind of right. People have been very kind of. We had the 250th birthday of the country, we've had the World cup soccer globally. People aren't paying the same attention that they might otherwise. And by the way, I think President Trump, for all his goods and bads, I think he was integral in getting the player back for today's game.
- [29:17]
B
I want to hear Dave's view on that. But I just want to add on one of the big picture macro things that's really happened this year is the and people I don't Mr. Trump hasn't figured out yet but Besson has and Warsh has that the old days you wanted to get reelected. You pressure the Fed to ease the goose economy. It's completely shifted. The facts have changed. Inflation is one in affordability and one of the number one issues in elections. If you're an incumbent, you don't want to get elected. You want to get the Democrats reelected or elected is yeah keep pressuring inflation to go higher. And one good way to do that is get the Fed to cut rates when they shouldn't. So to me that's what's changed. War is just talking tough. But I think the simplest way for this all to work out is I will make A prediction the next move from the Fed will be a 50 basis point cut and the start of many cuts because number one, if he were to hike, it'd be complete oxymoronic profile and current. Remember the, the, the appointed by Mr. Trump supposed to go in there, cut rates, boost the economy and if he actually hikes, that would, imagine what that would do for the stability and the checks and balances of the US Government system and the Fed and everything. I mean it'd be wonderful to see it. I think it's unlikely. But if the stock market just drops maybe 10% or so or 20% and stays down a little bit, they're going to cut so fast that's going to make the next big trade. It doesn't mean it's going to go back up. That's the problem. We're going to pat, we're at the end game and cryptos are telling us that.
- [30:42]
C
So if you think that, and I happen to agree with you on the direction of rates. So if, if you think that let's. The, the odds of Bitcoin being going down in that environment are, are pretty close to zero in my opinion. You know, the fact is that that's the, that that's the key thing in terms of what we've seen. I mean this market is, is stuck. I mean we know that when you see these range bound things and you have incredible bearishness throughout the crypto community and you have quiet accumulation by asset allocators on the basis of the hard, the sound money theory and the optionality on that, that's where we are at and that is where the market is at. There's no euphoria whatsoever. And we're sitting here on the 200 week moving average, give or take. There's so many reasons to think that, but to me, and when you talk about crypto, I keep wanting, I literally want to see assets that have no path to delivering economic value to their holders get punished. And we continue to see most of crypto trading in lockstep and the sorting mechanism isn't working terribly well and it has never worked terribly well. But it's, you know, it's, it's, then you look back and you see that's why these whole things about altcoin season, you know, make my head hurt. Right. You know, Scott and I look at this stuff and it's like, okay, well what do you tell people? Well, you know, there's, there's a lot going on, but I find it really hard to believe that there'll be Anything other than easier money. Now, as far as inflation is concerned, the core is to stick the genie back in the bottle. I mean, the problem that they have with affordability, Mike, is that, and it's a simple one, is that it used to be up until recently, from a macro perspective, that pushing inflation into asset prices so that assets went up when we inflated by creating more money was good as long as consumer prices didn't because we kept a control on them. Right. That's a harder thing to navigate when oil prices are shocked. And it's a much harder thing to navigate when people start considering housing and buying a house as part of affordability, because houses are assets and there's no way around that. And so they're, they're stuck there. There is that you're going to see all sorts of definitions of people trying to say, well, owning a house, well, that's not really. That doesn't matter. I mean, you can rent, you know, etc. But that's the problem. There's no way to goose the market without also goosing house prices. And goosing house prices is exactly where a lot of this angst, you know, where the pitchforks are coming from. Right. It's just, it just makes things unaffordable. And food prices clearly are part of it. But the food prices are just reacting to energy, right? And they react. It reacts with a lag because you have to truck it, you have to move it, you have to, you know, use fertilizer, you know, all the stuff that goes into it. Food prices tend to be higher after an oil shock. It takes time for it to work itself through the system. So those are the dynamics I will
- [33:55]
D
die on if I can. I think the next move from the Fed is a 25 bit cut in September. And here is kind of quite simply why. He talked tough on inflation, but one, he knows there's actually deflationary pressures coming through. Right. Not only did we allow the straight to open, it's kind of contentious how open it is, but we are letting Iran sell oil, we're letting Russia sell oil, Right. He is doing everything. I think we are on a trajectory where away from maybe some of the AI related stuff. We are seeing deflationary pressures. Those are going to be helpful too. I think the most important task force he did is the data task force. We are going to look at stuff, right? Truflation. Why is truflation, which attempts to measure data real time from the Internet, worse than cpi? It isn't. Now, I don't know that I would base Everything on truflation. But I would certainly look at it and I think core truflation is 1.5%. When I look at rental incomes, I go to Zillow rent, right. It shows something. Cleveland has a their own, the Cleveland Fed has their own metric of kind of oer owner's equivalent rent much lower than the stated owner's equivalent rent. I think when they come up with the data sources, they'll be able to spin pretty aggressively. Plus with some help with the deflationary pressures that actually inflation is under 2%. So now we can cut. Yes, we're focused on inflation. So you come markets but we start going to some of these other data sources and we start looking at the trend. I think it's all there able to cut. And then the only other part of this that I think is going to be more difficult, I think they're going to try and pin affordability rather than inflation on the Biden administration. I think they're going to say all the things that we're currently seeing were a function of underestimating inflation. So affordability sucks. But the price of beef is $20 a pound now. But it was only 18 when Trump started. It went from 10 to 18 or whatever the numbers are under Biden, it was all under inflated. And when you look at almost every metric of real time inflation versus the government data, it was all showing much, much higher inflation in 2020, 2021. And that's when we are still doing QE while talking about hikes, which never made any sense to me. So I think it's this deflationary sort of pressure and rate cuts where we actually control the long end of the yield curve because we at least symbolically pretended to care on inflation.
- [36:06]
A
Peter, can't he also. Sorry, Mike, can't we also say that the job numbers last week give a bit of COVID for a potential cut. Right. Because we were expecting 114,000. We got 57 even though unemployment came down. We know that those will all be revised down the road anyways.
- [36:21]
D
Yeah, I think the job number we
- [36:23]
A
needed to see as air cover for a potential cut in September and the
- [36:26]
D
revisions were down and the unemployment rate only really went down because it went down by 0.1%. But we had a 0.3% drop in labor participation rate. And to me, I always look at labor participation rate, it tends to decline when people are frustrated or you know, aren't finding jobs. So that was not a good unemployment rate drop. Right. If you get the labor participation rate goes higher saying more people Want to work and unemployment goes down. That's really good. This is. Yeah, the unemployment's down because people are taking themselves out of the labor force. I do not think that's a healthy sign. So it adds to the air cover, I believe if it keeps like that.
- [37:03]
B
Piggyback on that a little Peter. And also what you said Dave, about housing and more. I'm going to start with mortgage rates and the future Federal Reserve is going to look back at this period and say yeah, you know, cutting rates with the stock market two times GDP pumping up when inflation above our target for five years and pumping up the wealth effect and the bond yields going up, telling you to stop cutting rates. The future feds can look back and say that was dumb. So I look at markets right now, right now I see, man, I'm so bullish. Gold forever would not go above 2000 for four years until finally 2024. And we had four years of outflows in ETFs. That was such a classic signal. That was the pain. And then we got the best year in a lifetime in a disinflationary environment. And when you get that, you most just say thank you market and typically makes peaks. That's the way I see that long bond right now at 5%. I've been wrong on that thing for five years. But stock market hasn't gone down. But that's the key thing I want to push back on Dave a little. If you expect a highly volatile risk asset, any of them that has a high volatile high correlation with stock market which includes all the cryptos number one, which is first and now there's millions to go up with the stock market going down say good luck with that one. If the stock market drops 20% I fully expect Bitcoin to go right to $10,000. And every all these altcoins that go back to where they belong, which is zero now that's normal Correction. The key theme is to go down and stay down. We're so overdue for that. I mean you've seen it before and Dave, we've all seen it. Some of our listeners have just so overdue. Go down, stay down for a while in the federal ease will be wonderful. And then guess what? The next president will be a Democrat. It's almost guaranteed it's this typical cycle.
- [38:41]
C
Well, we'll see on all those things. I have no interest in litigating. This 10,000 bitcoin thing is great for clicks, but absolutely absurd.
- [38:54]
B
Hang on one second.
- [38:55]
C
Do with the stock market. Bitcoin goes hang on only if people perceive it failing because of quantum or some other other existential risk. That's it.
- [39:05]
B
Can you admit it was less, it's less absurd now than my first came out with this over a year ago. It was 110,000. Or is it still more? Sir, you're still fighting the bear. Come on.
- [39:15]
C
Not fighting the bear. I'm looking at.
- [39:17]
B
Okay, but is it less absurd now or more absurd?
- [39:19]
A
I think it becomes more absurd now. No offense. And I think it becomes more absurd because it's always. And I'm not saying like, listen, you've been consistent, so I'm not saying for you, but I'm saying like for in general when you know you're down a very significant amount and people start calling for 90% more to be fair, again, you've been calling it the whole time. But I see a lot of people now who are bullish saying like 10,000. That seems like the over emotional bottom signals most of the time when people start calling for another 90% drawdown. We've already had a 55% drawdown.
- [39:50]
C
Once again, here's the thing. At 60,000 we are at within. We have a bitcoin network, despite the AI conversions, we have a bitcoin network that's over six and a half times more robust than it was when bitcoin in its euphoria hit 60,000 before the last crash in 22. That's just the numbers. So when you look at it, what you're saying 10,000 is a failure case? Case. 10,000 happens if and only if on its way lower, frankly, because bitcoin has failed. Now, I don't think bitcoin's going to fail, but that is a failure case. And the market is pricing a significant probability that bitcoin could fail. But it has absolutely nothing to do with the stock market. If anything, it'll delink. In that scenario now with stock market down 20%, we saw that in the tariff tantrum and empirically that didn't happen. Stock market down 40, 50% and US going into a serious depression where nobody has any money. Yeah, every asset is going to fall and bitcoin could drop. Sure. If the stock market falls 50%, I think the Bitcoin probably will be at 30,000. But I think at some point, just like in the Great Depression, homestake mining, because you weren't allowed to buy gold specifically after the initial fall, dramatically outperformed. I think bitcoin and gold will dramatically outperform because what will the governments do if we have such a major cataclysmic Great Depression style stock market asset sell off. They're going to print money like absolutely nobody's business. And so they're going to do everything they can to reflate assets. And the problem with reflating assets when people lose confidence in corporations and valuations is that it goes into hard assets. Right. Now will that happen? I actually don't think so. But that's the scenario you're painting. The problem with the numbers and the commentary is that the reason, I mean, you started this by telling people that corporate profits were going crazy. Why? Because we have these massive deflationary effects out of AI. We have these massive things going on on the infrastructure side that companies are making more money. Now what's interesting here is if this was happening, these markets were happening when all of the AI consumer companies were public and dominated the public markets, in that case, I would say retail would be ready, ready to get rinsed. But these things haven't IPO'd yet. And so the companies that are public are actually using AI to make money as opposed to betting on this potential future dream. The people who are most nervous are the VCs. And the insiders are not nervous because they've made a fortune. The question is how much of their fortune will they lose between now and the time that Anthropic and Xai and OpenAI get to go public? And the comment that somebody made, I think one of your people made it, Mike, is that there is a huge supply that is going to impact other stocks. I mean, SpaceX was the first domino, but SpaceX has, I'll be blunt, SpaceX has so far outperformed what I thought it would do.
- [42:51]
A
Now it's back to is in the 150s.
- [42:54]
C
Yeah, but it's, but it hasn't fallen, it hasn't broken IPO yet. It's not broken IPO price. I figured it would break IPO price sometime in July. I may still end up being right. But you know, look, all of this is in a backdrop of people being pushed out on the risk curve. And yeah, it's, it's dangerous, right? You know, it is, it is dangerous, but that's what, that's what needs to be. But no, I, I don't think, it's not about respect. The bear. I mean the Bear started on October 10th in terms of crypto. The stock market has gone up since then, but crypto is down. You know, most of the crypto market is down significantly. I mean 70% on average, I think is about right. While the stock market has Gone up and you can talk about correlation as much as you want and then crashes, correlations go higher. But quite clearly since October these markets have not been correlated. Right. You know, it's just, it's just a fact, you know, and so you have to look at it that way. There are reasons. Now I happen to agree with you that a lot of the crypto market is bullshit, just like you know, but I don't believe Bitcoin's and frankly I don't think that, that Solana is, I don't think Ethereum is, I don't think that, you know, hell, I don't even think ZCast is. I just think that it's kind of an interesting, weird narrative. I certainly don't think Hyper Liquid is considering what they're doing in terms of market share. But yeah, there's a lot of crap there, there's no doubt. But you can't, can't miss that. It's just a market, right. You know, everything is going to be tokenized in the next 10 years, in which case then all your millions of cryptos are competing against Google too. But it isn't going to go.
- [44:32]
A
Everything you just named has been trading pretty independently of bitcoin for quite a while now.
- [44:36]
B
So that's right. Well that's one of the most bearish things for let's say the top thousand cryptos. They track nothing except for crypto dollars which are great and they're going to put them on, on chain next to a token that tracks something of substance and value and has earnings. That's why this is a bear market. Once it went institutionalized, once it went Wall street, they're going to, hey, this is a great short. I'll just take one of the hundreds, I'll short those. I just look at my screen right now, Cryp page, there's got a hundreds of cryptos, that's all cryptos. And I look over my commodity page, maybe there's 20 of them. That's the problem with technology is an unlimited supply. These things are going to keep getting hammered and that's in a bull market for the stock market. So when stock market goes to the bear market, we'll flush these all out and that's your chance to buy. We're nowhere near that. Respect the bear.
- [45:21]
C
Did you have any idea how many individual companies are formed every year in the United States? It's in the millions. The difference.
- [45:28]
B
So that's the difference is you're picking the one winner. Buy an index that has their survivor buys, you're picking Netscape and aol. And now you are pick an index attraction.
- [45:40]
C
It is. And let's, let's call, let's call on a lot of people in the crypto world, but here. But it's also bullshit on what you're saying. The difference is, is there are millions of companies formed every single year in the United States. But because of the SEC rules where going into even to get to some semblance of public, because of accredited investor rules and other rules like that, for it to be publicly traded is an extraordinarily expensive and cumbersome process. So the vast majority, 99 plus percent of all companies never become investable to the general public. The difference is with crypto, every crypto is investable to the general crypto public the day that they're born because there's some way to get them done on some defi platform or wherever. That's the difference. Now that has nothing to do with it, with the investment strategy. Most of them are. But to say eventually this all equalizes. Eventually people can invest whenever the hell they want to and they're going to invest. I agree with you. They're going to invest in things either with earnings or with future cash flows based on token economics or in the case of Bitcoin, on the basis of its monetary capabilities. I agree with you on that. That will happen and I think that's a large story. But to say that that, and I'm not even going to talk about dogecoin, to say that Shiba Inu or popcat is going to influence the price of bitcoin, I think is just naive. I mean, it will influence the price of Bitcoin no more than it will influence the price of Alphabet or meta or whatever.
- [47:12]
B
Okay, you've been wrong on that for over a year and a half. Maybe you should start admitting I've been pointing out they're all correlated. You take the top, the bottom 100. There's an index on 100 cryptos. They're correlated to Bitcoin 0.84% 84 times. It's great to say it, but it's been completely wrong.
- [47:29]
C
No, that's true. It's true that people in the crypto world, the crypto world has not had. It is true that correlation inside crypto that Bitcoin is the lead sled dog for it. And at some point that will end. I have no idea when that will end and to me that would be healthier. But the point is not the other way around. Right? Bitcoin, when Bitcoin moves All of crypto moves. That doesn't mean when all the crypto moves, bitcoin moves.
- [47:55]
B
It's not true. It has been. I've been pointing it out. I mean, come on, it's down 50 from the peak. That's part of my mantra. Your mantra's been wrong, mine's been right. At some point one of us is going to get stopped out. I'll just go with the statement lessons of market wizards and Charlie D. It statement has been going up from people have been short and been going down for people along and you keep saying it's going to end. I don't think it's going to end.
- [48:16]
C
Let's be clear. I mean I basically, I basically said that we've been bouncing around at 60. I said that at the bottom. I've been saying that for like three or four weeks. We've been talking about it. I was wrong at 90. You're right. I underestimated the impact of quantum I enter no doubt. And the impact of the four year cycle on people's philosophies. There's no doubt about that. I've said that. But that's not the same thing as calling for another 80, 90% drop from where we are today. That I'm. That's different.
- [48:42]
B
I mean, I'll stick with that. The Bloomberg Galaxy crypt index went from 4,000 to 2,000. It's on its way back to 1,000. That's another 90%. I fully expect that. I don't see what stops it.
- [48:52]
C
Okay, well we disagree. There's just too many things. There's too many pieces. The Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index is mostly Bitcoin and Ethereum. Right. So you're basically talking about Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- [49:08]
B
It's 12 cryptos and it has a survivor bias, which is. My point is if you're going to pick the winner, you might get a Netscape and aol. Good luck. I'd say tracking index at least has a survivor bias.
- [49:20]
C
Well, I understand that, but I actually don't think that Bitcoin will ultimately be valued the same as tokens that will generate economic value to the holders. I don't believe that has been my thesis for forever. And truthfully, while it's been wrong in a sense, it's been right in a sense because bitcoin has dramatically out outperformed a lot of altcoins. I mean, Scott, how does your altcoin portfolio look? I know what mine looks like and it doesn't look nearly as good as my bitcoin holdings.
- [49:46]
A
I Didn't even know I had one anymore, but I didn't sell anything.
- [49:53]
D
One thing, you know, again, this keeps coming back to me to market structure and kind of there is an element of people in this market that you know, are really trying to get rich quick. And I think that at one time they participated in crypto.
- [50:04]
C
Right?
- [50:04]
D
Crypto was a place that you could do 10x50x very quickly. I think they've all moved to partly the semiconductors, partly Kalshi, the poly markets. They've moved to other things. And the one part that again keeps coming back to my concern about where we are in the markets is I do think a portion of that is aggressively playing all these semi names, especially the global ones, the ones that have that sort of meme stock characteristic where you can kind of push it higher and pushing it higher tends to force it to go even higher and come down. And then had some interesting conversations a couple of hedge funds recently. And what people I think are struggling on, they have these models for various sectors, various factors. And I don't think they've done a good job of stripping out the AI component that's embedded itself into almost every factor. That momentum is actually partly AI, that energy is now partly AI. And so people are having these portfolios that they think are nicely diversified historically, but there's this element running through that AI has now crept into almost every factor, every investment form. It's not being stripped out that is leaving people susceptible. So I think you're going to start seeing as that kind of narrative plays out a lot of these risk parity type funds and stuff, say hey, we might want to reduce our gross over long positions across the board because we're having a lot of difficulty pulling out the AI component that isn't just the AI stocks, but it's embedded into almost every sector at this stage. It's become so big. So I thought that was kind of an interesting thing. I don't know, maybe in some ways it's mental gymnastics at this stage, but when people start talking about this.
- [51:42]
A
Pardon, I don't think so. I think you're right. That's a really interesting point. I remember the crypto contagion a lot of us thinking that we were well diversified within segment or then even, you know, like maybe you own some coinbase, what not at the time, but you know, like some stocks that were adjacent and all these things and you realize that 30 to 50 investments that you had were all completely wiped out by the exact same phenomenon. And I think, you know, extrapolating that, you know, to all markets. Because now everything is so AI driven. That makes a lot of sense. It's really. How do you diversify out of AI right now in an investment portfolio, I guess is the question.
- [52:17]
C
It depends what you're. When you say AI, it depends what you mean by AI, right? If you mean or strip away exposure. Because two things could be true right at the same time. It could be true that AI as a service is overvalued by the comp in the private markets from the companies that produce it because people don't have the money and or won't pay for as much. You know, that it will go into advertising and search and all the other stuff and all that stuff is going to blend together. That could be true at the same time that the recognition is that the world needs more power and more compute than the world has. So you know, and I always come back to the, the Internet bubble. The most important pieces of the Internet bubble, there were two totally. They're very correlated, but there were two distinct trends. The things that happened in 2000, thing number one was there were tons of companies that got crazily overvalued because they claimed to be exploiting this new technology and they didn't really have a path to profit from it. While there were other companies at the exact same time that were exploiting the new technology that had a massive path to profit and they got washed out when the markets washed out. So if you think people selling Amazon down 90 plus percent and quite a few others at the same time as pets.com went to zero, okay, well pets.com deserved to go to zero, but Amazon got washed out. So that was underst. People learn from that. And so the, the market analysts are saying, okay, let's figure out what's real and what's not. Who's going to be able to make money, who isn't. So that's trend number one. Trend number two was at the same time there was 20x over capacity in fiber and everyone was talking about the massive demand for video and this and everything that was going to go on in the Internet that was going to take whatever. And so they built out and put huge levered private buyout funds and huge leverage into companies like Global Crossing and WorldCom and others to build this massive fiber infrastructure that would literally not be needed or useful economically for two decades, but do so with debt that needed to be paid by demand that wasn't going to materialize for two decades. So what happened? Predictably, they went kaboom and they all went bankrupt. Now there are people out there who actually just knee jerk and say, okay, well wait a minute. Well, these AI infrastructure plays, well, that's the case, but that's not the case because we don't have, not only do we not have 20 times more capacity, we don't have enough capacity. Capacity. And so their AI infrastructure firms are building stuff out and they have actual buyers. Now whether those buyers will, you know, will implode because they can't sell their products, you're betting on private companies imploding from their own debt. If you're selling those companies debt. Right. And, and that's unlikely. Now. It could happen, it could happen in years, absolutely. But under, you have to look at these trends and understand what, what they're coming from. And that's the big deal here. I mean, the thing is, AI is going to infiltrate every single thing that gets done. And it's a very scary thing if you think about it. I mean, it used to be when you had an argument over a fact, you'd say Google it and you'd search it and you'd sit there and Google. Some people like me, you know, I used to call myself a Google ninja because I could get to the actual source documents and figure things out. What would take hours now takes seconds. Except for it takes seconds by asking, you know, however you name your AI. Mine is named Rex. But whatever I asked Rex, you know, my son asked Jake, other people or, or Max, he's one that he's built, you know, on our own hardware that you can do that in seconds and that will become ubiquitous. Now of course, when that becomes ubiquitous now, you have to worry about who's determining the truth because no one people will have the skills to actually go back and find the source documents. But that's, that's, that, that's a different, a different topic. But from an economics point of view, until it becomes ubiquitous and people figure out what they can pay for it, we don't know what those things are going to be. So yeah, I do think that the new IPO wave that's going to hit the latter part of this year is dangerous for the stock market writ large because I think a lot of those companies are probably overvalued and I think they are, that it will take capital away from other things. But it's not the same thing as in the past. I mean, we do not have over capacity infrastructure. Sorry for the long winded diatribe, but it's just, I hear this and I just want to make sure that the distinctions get made.
- [56:54]
A
Yeah.
- [56:55]
D
The only quick thing I'll say on that is Meta did mention excess capacity for the first time ever, which struck me as weird. I don't know whether, but to me this is all. When I look at factors, momentum has been one of the most successful factors and it's meant to be independent of other factors, factors. And I think what's happening is momentum and AI are becoming very much the same. Electricity is becoming very much the same. All these things I think lead to these quick 5 to 10%. I don't think it's a decimation, but you know, it is the sort of thing where I think you could see rapidly a 10, 15% downside in a period of a week because everyone starts realizing these factors are correlated. They have to kind of shrink their gross positions because things aren't working as independently as they thought. And it hits the cow cheese. It hits everything. Right there is that wealth effect that Mike's been talking so much about. And you start losing that wealth effect, people start selling, everything just be down again. I'm not thinking it's going to be even a 20 down, but I feel like we are in for a choppy period and it's not going to take much to trigger that sort of, kind of market infrastructure sort of selling as opposed to that the story is done or anything like that.
- [57:59]
C
Well, I, I will say this. I mean, for those who follow it, you know, mean there has been a lot of market infrastructure selling already. I mean, you know, I, I sold some iron at $70, you know, and it wasn't all that long ago. Right. You know, and you know, can buy it back now a hell of a lot cheaper. So it's like when I say a hell of a lot, I'm not, We're not talking about small moves here. Right. You know, when you see, when you see companies drop, I mean, from 70 to 40 and or below, actually I think it hit at 36 recently. Big cut in half in a month. On this, the fears, the infrastructure is overblown. You're seeing big moves. These are not small moves. And so a lot of what's happening, and Mike actually was right on this, a lot of what's happening in the internals of the market is extremely interesting. I mean, there's been a lot of serious drawdowns in various themes, yet the overall market continues to stay high because people keep to have to. They're just redeploying their money. Right? It's. So the question will be, you know, when the music stops Will there be a music stop? Will we see you know, an across the board fall and if, if so, what is it? But there are a lot of things that have changed on the internals of this market. It's not, it's not at all the same as it was. Well, it never is. It's never always perfect. But correlations are definitely lower from an individual stock to indices than they have been.
- [59:26]
A
Mike, you get the final thoughts?
- [59:28]
B
Well, I want to piggyback on that. That's the key theme. Music has stopped in cryptos. The mania is over. The music has stopped in metals favorite sector. We created Law Metals Index because I asked index team to do it. A decade ago that stopped. There's only one place left. And when the music stops in stock market, which I think it'll be 2H this year, that's going to be a trade of life time just getting started now if it keeps going up, man, it's nothing, there's nothing to talk about. But if it starts trickling down, that's 2008, 2029 combined.
- [59:58]
A
Yeah, 1929 sounds worse.
- [60:05]
B
Well, it's what happened. I'll happen the Q4 and it's the last time in history we were this high versus gdp. It's good that stuff doesn't matter anymore. But here's one fact Alan, for you. People talk about all this debt. The debt is minuscule deal compared to market cap of the stock market right now. Stock market cap to our total public debt is two times. The last time we were that high was 2007. Didn't last long.
- [60:28]
A
Peter, you were about to jump in, but you're muted.
- [60:30]
D
Yeah, no, I, I, those are all fair points. I think so.
- [60:35]
C
I mean I, I, I'm not gonna repeat myself. We know where I agree and where I disagree. I, I will say this. If Mike is right, then New York is in deep deep trouble. Because imagine what's going to go on with the, with this massive spending budget that's basically rated pensions etc and, and is dependent upon Wall street profits to being being paid. I can all, I can't even imagine the impact on New York City if the stock market does what Mike is calling for. And by the way, it is absolutely. And for anyone who thinks that's not a possibility, is not paying attention, it is, it's kind of a scary thought. But whatever, you know that that's the real world. And we don't have to talk about the real world. We talk about markets here. So that's okay.
- [61:15]
A
Yeah, let's avoid the real world. Because 10 out of three.
- [61:17]
C
And we didn't talk about. About a stupid red card that, that, that, that FIFA bound to political pressure on. But I just. I just laugh. I mean, I, I, I made a tweet the other day, and, and all the Europeans, of course, yelled about it, but, you know, they showed. And I am a messy fan.
- [61:36]
A
Right.
- [61:36]
C
You know, I, I actually live in a neighborhood.
- [61:39]
A
Penalty. No call.
- [61:40]
C
Yeah, yeah, he. What he did. He was actually looking at what he did, whereas the American was, Was looking the opposite direction. And so, yeah, trying to get to. To not have that happen is logical. I think the notion of red cards in, you know, and, and what they do when it's like England, you know, England lost somebody for the next match. England had to play for half an hour. You know, basically a huge part of the match. Down one guy, and they won. And. But having to play a huge part of the match without, you know, without down 10, one guy is incredibly bad. To have it go to the next one, there needs to be intent. I mean, someone should. I. I can't even imagine what.
- [62:21]
A
I think we can unpack FIFA rules. All I know is that this was my favorite tweet yesterday.
- [62:27]
D
That's a good one.
- [62:28]
C
It was.
- [62:29]
A
And my second one was that if we're losing at 8, at, you know, 88 minutes tonight, I hear they're gonna drop in Seal Team 6 to take out the entire Belgian squad. No, it's.
- [62:41]
C
It's never.
- [62:42]
A
Yeah, it's funny. I don't think we're gonna solve the World cup here, unfortunately. Peter, Dave, Mike, thank you guys so much. It was a great show, as always. And next Monday, Mike, I know you're gonna be gone for a couple Mondays, right?
- [62:54]
B
Two weeks. Yeah. I'm gonna disengage for a little while. Thank you.
- [62:57]
A
This is yearly. I'm gonna pretend the market doesn't exist. Break. Which I highly encourage everybody to take. It's a very good thing, I think, to do if you're deeply passionate. I'm gonna do it the first week of August. All right, everybody, thank you. We'll see you soon.
- [63:11]
C
Let's.
- [63:25]
B
That's dope.