Podcast Summary

The Wolf Of All Streets with Scott Melker

Episode: “Bitcoin’s REAL Bull Run Begins When THIS Happens & Nobody’s Ready!”
Guest: Austin Arnold (Altcoin Daily)
Date: December 21, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Scott Melker is joined by Austin Arnold from Altcoin Daily for a frank assessment of the 2025 crypto market, why the “real” Bitcoin bull run may only begin in 2026, and how regulation, global liquidity, and changing institutional dynamics are shaping the industry. They candidly break down major market catalysts, the “death” of crypto narratives, the quiet ascendance of Bitcoin as a macro asset, and what investors should brace for in the year ahead.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025 in Review: Fundamental Progress vs. Lackluster Prices

• Price Disappointment: Despite sweeping regulatory wins, institutional interest, and government acceptance of blockchain, digital asset prices (especially altcoins) stagnated or declined.
  • “2025 for crypto… price action wise has been underwhelming. Fundamentally it's been really great.” — Austin (03:33)
• Institutions Entering, Retail Checked Out:
  • “My biggest holding is Bitcoin. My second biggest holding is Ethereum… Yet price is down 40% from all time highs.” — Austin (07:28)
  • Retail investment has dwindled, many have redirected capital elsewhere, and those participating often flock to meme coins instead of majors.

2. Bitcoin as Macro Asset – The New Investment Lens

• Macro Factors Dominate:
  • Bitcoin discussions are less about tech and more about inflation, central banks, and macroeconomic trends.
    • “We have to be macro economists. We have to talk about the Bank of Japan and inflation and the Fed…” — Scott (04:23)
• Investor Thesis Anchored to Big Picture:
  • Currency debasement, digital transformation, and distrust of central authorities continue to strengthen the fundamental case for Bitcoin.
    • “Number one… do we think people globally are going to keep losing trust in their government… the debasement trade… Number three… is the world going to get more digital?… Bitcoin has not gotten less relevant. Bitcoin has gotten more relevant.” — Austin (04:51)

3. The End of Old Narratives & the Altcoin Bloodbath

• Narrative Fatigue:
  • Past boom narratives (DeFi summer, NFT mania, metaverse, etc.) have fizzled—most tokens in those categories now trade near zero.
    • “We’ve just dumbed down our entire asset class price action to one huge macro factor.” — Scott (32:23)
• Altcoin Winners Yet Unchosen:
  • Caution on assuming past-cycle winners (outside Bitcoin/Ethereum/Solana) will return.
    • “I don't think last cycle’s altcoins will be this cycle’s altcoins. I don’t think the winners have been chosen yet.” — Austin (07:28)
• Meme Coins & Politics:
  • Trump token, meme coins, and retail confusion contributed to the speculative malaise; politicization of crypto is a key short-term risk.
    • “Crypto is a Republican thing, crypto is a Trump thing… policy is most important…” — Austin (10:32-12:44)

4. 2026: Regulation, The Clarity Act, and a 1996 Internet Parallell

• Regulatory Milestone on the Horizon:
  • The Clarity Act, expected in early 2026, likened to the 1996 Telecommunications Act that unleashed the internet era.
    • “2026 is our 1996 moment for crypto versus the Internet.” — Austin (11:11, 12:44)
• Game-Changing Catalyst—But Not Instant:
  • Market may run into, then stall or retrace after the Clarity Act, as was the pattern with Bitcoin ETFS/stablecoin regulation, but the true effects play out over 5-10 years.
    • “Catalyst that we saw every single time… price run up into it, chop solidation on it and a little after it and then price decline… what this does for crypto in the next five years, 10 years, this is a revolution.” — Austin (18:45)

5. Global Liquidity: The Real Decider

• Liquidity Trumps Headlines:
  • Asset prices and new narratives only soar when global liquidity flows freely. No “cycle magic” without it.
    • “When global liquidity picks up… the next trend that really hits is going to be when global liquidity really hits and not the other way around.” — Austin (31:01, 32:23)
  • “All the narratives in the world but if bitcoin’s all of a sudden 110,000 in a month, everybody’s going to be talking about all-time highs in FOMOine.” — Scott (49:41)

6. Key Sectors: Privacy, Stablecoins, Gaming, AI

• Privacy Coins:
  • Zcash’s wild 2025 run indicates privacy appetite, but true winners will likely be stablecoin privacy solutions (Aleo, Ethereum L2s).
    • “I think stablecoins… will be used for privacy, and I think we’re going to see that with Ethereum layer 2s.” — Austin (25:53)
• Stablecoins and Institutionalization:
  • Stablecoins are here to stay, increasingly built on compliant frameworks (Ethereum gaining dominance over Tron).
    • “Ethereum… has the liquidity, has the market share, and we’re seeing the actual activity on the Ethereum blockchain.” — Austin (26:50)
• AI & Decentralized Science:
  • AI, infrastructure (like Bittensor), and possibly decentralized science (DeSci) are future areas to watch.
    • “I’m much more of an infrastructure guy… Tao, Bittensor… maybe we get the robotics trend, maybe we get Deci, decentralized science.” — Austin (21:20)
• Gaming & NFTs:
  • Gaming remains a rational blockchain use-case, but mainstream liguidity flow is needed before the trend returns in force.
    • “I think the next trend that really hits is going to be when global liquidity really hits and not the other way around.” — Austin (31:01)

7. Market Structure & Timeline Outlook

• Short-Term Chop, Long-Term Opportunity:
  • Expect possible “chopsolidation”—sideways/bearish price for months; true bull run may not begin until liquidity increases (possibly tied to midterm elections and stimulus).
    • “I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s going to be really boring for the first half of the year… when we really start ramping up into midterms, that’s when… all of those things [stimulus, Fed cuts, etc.].” — Scott (37:59)
  • DCA, long-term conviction, and “buying fear” remain best strategies.
    • “The lower bitcoin goes, the more fear there is. That’s a great time to buy if you believe in the long term. Just like when euphoria happens, take some profits. DCA out.” — Austin (52:30)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the 2025 Upside/Downside Surprise:
  “2025… instead of breaking out, it broke people. Regulation flipped, institutions showed up, governments embraced blockchain, and somehow prices went nowhere while most altcoins got absolutely destroyed.” — Scott (00:00)
• The Macro Shift:
  “All of our narratives now… we have to be macro economists. We have to talk about the Bank of Japan and inflation and the Fed and what the government’s doing.” — Scott (04:23)
• Bitcoin’s Enduring Relevance:
  “Bitcoin has not gotten less relevant. Bitcoin has gotten more relevant. And in that long-term timeframe I’m more bullish on bitcoin. It’s just what’s going to happen in the short term, anybody’s guess.” — Austin (06:23)
• On Trump/Meme Coins politicizing Crypto:
  “If people think there’s nefarious behavior, then they’re going to just put, oh, crypto is a Republican thing, crypto is a Trump thing. We have to take them down because he is using that illegally. So the whole thing must be illegal…” — Austin (10:32)
• Clarity Act Parallell:
  “2026 is our 1996 moment for crypto versus the Internet… once the Telecommunications Act happened, obviously that ushered in years more of innovation…” — Austin (12:44)
• Liquidity as King:
  “The next trend that really hits is going to be when global liquidity really hits and not the other way around.” — Austin (31:01)
• On Gold vs. Bitcoin:
  “Some people are saying [gold] is going to hit 5,000… If you put double the [gold] miners in they mine double the gold, inflate that supply higher… You can’t do that with bitcoin. That could be the catalyst at the end of 2026…” — Austin (34:34)
• Bitcoin as “Money for Enemies”:
  “Gold used to be what they consider money for enemies… Now it’s bitcoin because it’s much more transferable globally. It’s actually fixed.” — Austin (37:30)
• DCA Mentality:
  “The beauty of being a dollar cost averager, Scott, … is it doesn’t really matter because you know, it’s what’s bitcoin is going to be in five years, 10 years.” — Austin (40:53)
• Institutions as Mercenaries:
  “I think of these big banks and BlackRock as more mercenaries than missionaries… They’re not our friends, but we are aligned in the same team, understanding this technology is not going away.” — Austin (42:45)
• On the Good Old Days:
  “Nobody really tells you you’re in the good old days until after they happen. I think cryptocurrency today is the good old days… It’s not going away.” — Austin (52:30)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 2025 Market Recap & Narratives Dead: 00:00–06:59
• Bitcoin as Macro/Investment Thesis: 04:38–06:59
• ETF/Institutional Adoption, Retail Exit: 07:28–09:44
• Altcoin Season/Meme Coins/Trump Token: 09:44–11:54
• Regulatory Landscape & Clarity Act: 11:54–16:31
• Markets, Trading Hours, Trump Launches a Meme Coin: 15:46–17:36
• Impact & Analysis of Clarity Act (potential catalyst): 18:13–20:33
• Death of Old Narratives, New Ones to Watch: 20:33–23:30
• Privacy/Stablecoins Trends (Zcash, Aleo, Ethereum L2s): 23:53–27:40
• Gaming, NFTs, Waiting for Liquidity: 30:03–32:23
• Liquidity Focus, Technical Outlook, Chopsolidation: 32:23–41:24
• Long-Term Opportunity, DCA Mindset: 41:24–44:49; 52:30–53:22
• On Institutions’ Role in Crypto: 42:15–43:49
• Bitcoin as Global Reserve, Gold Analogy: 44:49–47:03
• The “Good Old Days” & Staying Involved: 52:30–54:43

Final Takeaways

• Crypto’s Fundamentals have never been stronger—regulation, institutional infrastructure, and mainstream integration are here—but the market is waiting for the liquidity spark to reignite the bull cycle.
• Bitcoin has matured into a macro asset and may take on the role gold once played, but with superior characteristics; altcoin selection remains treacherous.
• True “liftoff” may begin only with the passing of the Clarity Act and a renewed wave of global liquidity—most likely in the wake of 2026 political changes.
• Long-term conviction, strategy (like DCA), and tuning out short-term noise remain the best approach for both new and veteran investors.
• Enjoy “the good old days”—the big move is likely still ahead.

Follow Austin Arnold at Altcoin Daily, and Scott Melker for more macro-driven, real talk on crypto’s future.