Loading summary
Transcript149 lines
- [00:00]
Scott Melker
Good morning, everybody.
- [00:01]
Dave Weisberger
Welcome to Crypto Town Hall. Every other day at 10:15am Eastern Standard Time here on X. Life is definitely better when you wake up and Bitcoin's above 70,000 instead of below it. I would still argue that we're kind of ranging, but really encouraging to see bitcoin doing well, especially while markets around the world are wavering. I mean, for those who didn't see the United US market is doing reasonably okay, pretty much flat 0.4%. I think s and P is up. NASDAQ up just under 1%. But Bitcoin up large and stock markets around the world. Abu Dhabi, Korea. I mean, Korea had one of its worst days in history. Definitely feeling the effects of the war in Iran. There's a lot of stories, actually, that we can unpack today. I think one of them, obviously, is price action, but a few others that I just want to kind of put at the top of people's minds. Cryptocurrency Exchange, Kraken, their banking division said they got access to a Federal Reserve Master account. This is the first time that this has ever happened. Kraken obviously has had a banking license in Wyoming. They were ahead of the curve on that. But this is the exact thing that Caitlin Long and Custodia have been suing the Fed over their lack of access to this. This is also the first pilot program, effectively, of what Waller called the skinny accounts that we saw mentioned, you know, a few months ago. So very clear that they're actually going to try this cracking. Won't have the ability to do lending or a lot of other things that come with the Fed, but they are going to at least have access to the federal banking system. Obviously, we can discuss Jamie Dimon's comments on stablecoins, Trump's comments on banks threatening the Genius act, and quite a few other things and some miners potentially selling here. Carlo. Dave, go ahead and jump in. Then we'll go.
- [02:00]
Travis Kling
You know what? Let's like, I know that Carlo wants talk about stable coins. He probably read my response to my old friend Larry Tabb this morning. I mean, look, it's a farce what's going on right now. And. But the fact is the president is doing presidential stuff this time, and he's basically calling it out as the farce that it is. I think that it's not the most important story of the day, but I do think it is relevant. And the reason I said it's a farce is that the notion of community banks being hurt by stablecoins is just absurd. I dug into the numbers and did a post. I'm going to make a longer form post later. But basically the numbers for those who care is that community banks are earning a net interest or not an interest, a gross interest margin on their loans activity of 5, 5 and 3/4% last year while the money center banks were earning way less than that by depositing in Treasuries and blahbity blah. Now why does this matter? Because the stablecoin holders companies are going to be doing the literal low and they're going to be depositing in securities. If community banks can earn an extra couple hundred basis points, they're not going to be impacted. And so the numbers just make the whole thing into a farce. And, and as soon as you dig in you realize that they're using that the money center banks are using the community banks as their shield to essentially get free money. And it is that simple. And people are starting to call bullshit on it and it won't work eventually. It's just they're going to cut through the shit. So that's what I think. And Carlo, good morning.
- [03:37]
Scott Melker
Good morning. Yeah, I'm pretty excited about all this. The Jamie Dimon thing is total bullshit and I've been saying it for a long time. This is not about protecting consumers. This is about preserving a monopoly. And it's backfiring badly for him and for him to resort to the argument now that if you want to use stable coins and provide yield on stable coins, then you should be a bank. Which is the reason why we have stable coins, because we're getting away from banks. So Trump calling him out on this I think raises the probability of the Clarity act happening. It is amazing to see Kraken get access to Fed because now we have the first and I don't think it'll be the last crypto exchange that will become a NEO bank. This provides consumers for the first time I think the ability to be able to bridge from stablecoins to fiat outside the banking system, which I'm pretty excited to see. And I have a big announcement. I want to pin it up in the nest. I put out a guide. It is free. Make your wallet your bank. Because in response to this nonsense that we're hearing from the bank sector, consumers do have options and they do have alternatives and they can break away from the extractive fee monopoly that banks enjoy right now. And this is exactly why they are fighting tooth and nail through the Clarity act to try to undo all of this.
- [05:17]
Travis Kling
So
- [05:19]
Scott Melker
in conclusion, I think my initial premise that banks are fucked up is coming to life. And it's illustrated by the utter panic that we're seeing from the big banks right now.
- [05:32]
Travis Kling
The one point, and I want to get back to the price action and the war and the this and the that, but the one thing, if you, if you think that cracking, getting the master account at the Fed is a small deal or that that movement towards clarity is a small deal, I think that you're, you're just, you're nuts. I think that this is exactly why Bitcoin is doing what it's doing, because it makes Bitcoin and other crypto much more investable because Kraken is going to be able to offer payments and, you know, Coinbase is going to be doing the same thing. You know, Robinhood is going to be doing the same thing. You know, that, that other, you know, other entrants in the market will come in and it will make this notion of the need for ETFs for average people to invest drop dramatically. And breaking those things down and making it available for people is exactly where it matters. That's why Charles Hoskinson, you didn't mention that story, which I think is important. He went hyperbolic that clarity would basically turn a lot of crypto into securities. But he completely misses the point. It's another post I'm in the middle of writing. He completely misses the point that combined with SEC rules that take away the notion that, that being a security is a death sentence for crypto, that is that they can coexist meaningfully, that's not really a big problem. And so there's a lot of things that could, that will, will be set in motion if this thing gets through. And if it doesn't get through, it's a problem, there's no question. But I think a large part of the reason the market was so dead is because it went dead when the clarity looked like it was going to be completely blocked. So if it in fact does happen, I think that is an upside surprise. And we've just seen the beginning. That's the way I would put it. I mean, Scott, I don't know, because you and I were talking last week saying both of us said, yeah, probably still less than 10% and happening. Okay, well, if it isn't, then short this rally. And if it is, then this is an incredible opportunity.
- [07:35]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, I mean, I had Eleanor Terrett, Eleanor, on yesterday. Obviously she's kind of the breaking news person on all of it. She says that we definitely are getting positive signals when it comes to comments to the media. But when you dig behind it, we haven't even gotten to a decision on stablecoins. She said yield is entirely off the table. That's a non starter now and that's where they're starting negotiations from. And even if we get a agreement for clarity on yield, they haven't even started to talk about defi and ethics or any of the other things that we know could be major impediments to getting this passed. Listen, maybe I'm wrong. I'm just when I hear anything behind closed doors is not optimist.
- [08:12]
Travis Kling
No, I understand that.
- [08:13]
Dave Weisberger
So yeah, I'll put it at 10% or less. I think that's fine.
- [08:17]
Travis Kling
And I think the market is pricing 10% as opposed to 0% or maybe they're pricing 20 as opposed to 10 and I think that's what's going on. But there's a lot of reason why this stuff matters. I mean you're seeing silly things, you know, like Ray Dalio's comments. I mean I, I've eviscerated them. I did it in video, I did it in writing but you know, you got stuff like that. But anyway, you had a lot of other topics there. But I think that what you're seeing are the last gasp arguments. And it feels like that. That's what it feels like to me. I don't know. I don't know what everybody else.
- [08:50]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, I mean dalio still owns 1% of his portfolio. He just effectively said, yeah, it's interesting. He just kind of like first of all, he's Captain Negative, right? I mean it's not like you get much optimism out of Ray Dalio ever. I think he's brilliant, incredible investor, but definitely not the type person who's going to give you the good you're looking for. But he effectively said, you know, that central banks aren't going to choose bitcoin like gold and that there's quantum risk and you know, a few, few other things kind of parody like narratives.
- [09:23]
Travis Kling
I'm not going to repeat it all. I mean people can tag it above,
- [09:26]
Dave Weisberger
pin it above so people can see.
- [09:28]
Travis Kling
If I knew how to do that, I would happily do it. I keep asking.
- [09:31]
Dave Weisberger
I'll do it for you if it's
- [09:32]
Travis Kling
on X. Yeah, I did. I posted a YouTube video and an X post on taking, taking that down. It's actually right here, you know. So yeah, it's, it's simple and it. Look, the major reason is this. He's right that the main central banks don't want bitcoin. Because bitcoin isn't private. Exactly. The central, main, central banks, the big ones want to obfuscate what the hell they hold. You know, there's a reason we haven't audited Fort Knox. There's a reason that, that, that none of the, the G7 countries wants anybody to know what the hell they hold. And if you hold bitcoin, you will know. Right. You know, it is provable and that is not good. But that is exact opposite flips when it comes to the central banks that have actually been the ones that are buying gold because they want people to know what the hell is backing their currency. So it's kind of funny, but his argument, I think, is actually a bullish argument. But that's besides the point. Well, it's not besides the point. It is the point, I guess.
- [10:29]
Dave Weisberger
And bitcoin right now about to hit 73,000. So obviously reacting positively to whatever is going on.
- [10:36]
Travis Kling
Let's talk about why.
- [10:37]
Dave Weisberger
I think it's interesting.
- [10:38]
Travis Kling
Let's talk about why. You know, there are a lot of people, I mean, the, the, everybody. I mean, I don't know, I got a lot of abuse for saying. And, and I think. I don't know what you did. I can only imagine you get so much abuse, you know, for everything you say. But, you know, we both said that we thought that, that, that the wick below 60 was the bottom, right? And people are like, are you kidding me? It's gonna go to 40, it's gonna go to 30, it's gonna go to 10. You know, it's gonna, it's gonna lose a decimal place. It's gonna do this, it's gonna do that, whatever. I mean, you know, it's like you look at the volume, you see the actual selling, I mean, selling exhaustion was readily apparent a week ago. And then, you know, we had a war start. And it dropped $2,000 and recovered almost immediately. And if that isn't telling you the sellers were exhausted, then you're nuts. And, you know, does that mean buyers are going to step in? Of course not. Because as Gary has pointed out, you know, the narrative is a problem, et cetera. So it's just waiting for a little bit of some reason. But the fact is, is there's a lot of people who were believers that just assumed it was going to go down. And so, you know, we'll see. But this is a process. I've said it before, it's going to be a grinding rally. You're going to see it's going to get faded at varying Points. I think probably the first place it gets faded is 74, because that's the technical level that a lot of people have talked about. And, you know, whatever. As I said, the. The major selling is exhausted unless there's somebody else or some other shoe to drop. And. And the thought that it was going to be Mara that was going to be doing major dumping. No, they're not going to dump. But will they start selling as it gets back towards a hundred thousand? Yeah, probably. They want to unlock market cap, but, you know, we'll see. That's another story. You didn't mention, you know, them. You know.
- [12:11]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, that. That. That's one of the other big ones, obviously, and we can get into that. I would love to kind of go around the horns.
- [12:16]
Travis Kling
Right? You know, come on, guys.
- [12:18]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah. Especially to talk about what's happening with the market here.
- [12:20]
Travis Kling
Yeah.
- [12:20]
Dave Weisberger
I mean, I would love people's take.
- [12:23]
William
Who do you.
- [12:24]
Mauricio
Who do we want to call on
- [12:25]
Travis Kling
and embarrass to talk first?
- [12:27]
Dave Weisberger
Because I don't know. Somebody's got to raise their hand.
- [12:29]
Mauricio
Okay.
- [12:31]
Dave Weisberger
Should we play the Jeopardy. Music?
- [12:33]
Travis Kling
Yeah. No, whatever. I mean, come on, guys. Okay. William.
- [12:35]
Dave Weisberger
William, you win the lottery. Congrats.
- [12:38]
William
Okay, my question is if we've had such positive movement with the geopolitical situation, which is good, by the way. Finally, I think there are some small signs that crypto is doing what it's supposed to do, which is be safer during turmoil. My question is, what's going to happen when this conflict is going to get resolved and finished? Suppose the war ends in two weeks. Does this mean that we're going to continue on this same upward movement?
- [13:14]
Travis Kling
William, you turn into Mr. Roboto, right. When you were saying what happens if I heard, you know, Mr. Roboto music? I didn't hear what you said. You repeat yourself.
- [13:22]
Gary
Oh.
- [13:22]
William
My question is what happens if or when the conflict ends in the Middle East? And do you think that the crypto is going to be out of the woods? Because I want to be able to go back and say, well, look, crypto did fairly well during this period where there was lots of turmoil in the world, because it is supposed to do well when there are conflicts, because it is fundamentally immune to these conflicts. I'd like us to. To exploit that in the future, in the near future, if we can.
- [14:01]
Travis Kling
You got the wrong guy here. While I'm not a bitcoin maxi, and I love to hear other people's opinion on, I think that that that narrative for bitcoin may very well work. I think that until we know until people can assess value. I think that this is, this is a relief rally and a relief rally, most traders will fade. But we'll see. I mean, you know, look it, we'll, we'll see that, that, that's sort of the way I look at it. I mean there, when you see a day like today when there's absolutely complete correlation. I mean I haven't looked, but it just, you know, I think the correlation is pretty damn high that pretty much everything is up in the crypto sphere. Weirdly, the only one that's not up, which I actually hold some of is Canton Network because I think it's associated with legacy. But you know, it's your, your and maybe zcash. I haven't looked at that today. But you know, when you see these sort of relief rallies, they, they tend to be exactly that. And I think a lot of traders will fade them. I think bitcoin has a different narrative that's been going on. But you know, you know, and Ethereum may very well be in the same, in the same boat. But you know, we'll see. I mean this is crypto town hall. I mean, obviously I shouldn't be the only opinion here. I mean who, who thinks that, that, that this is an all clear all season about to get started? Because I don't think I do. Anybody?
- [15:18]
Scott Melker
I don't think I do. I don't.
- [15:19]
Mauricio
Negative.
- [15:20]
Dave Weisberger
Negative.
- [15:21]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I don't think I do. But I think it's certainly going to follow if we see an infusion of liquidity. Things are getting set up. We're seeing stress in the, in the private equity sector across the board, in Europe and I think there's going to be a need for additional bailouts and additional liquidity to get infused into the system. It'll lift up bitcoin first. And my premise still remains, it'll lift up selected alts that are actually doing things not the alt season we're used to seeing, but I think there will be an alt season.
- [16:00]
Travis Kling
Travis, I see, I see your hand up.
- [16:03]
Mauricio
Yeah, for one. How's it going guys? Nice to, to hear your friendly voices. Yeah. So I look at this, I'm actually on the ground in Dubai. I live in Dubai now. Right. So it's been kind of weird here the last, last few days to say the least. But I, but as we're talking about why crypto is up, why is it holding up? Because I think that, you know, there was so much cell pressure for so long and you know, maybe war was already kind of priced in. I think people expected that there were going to be strong strikes. I mean, if you look on Polymarket and Kalsheep like before, they already had sold off and they were leveraging saying, hey, yeah, it looks like we're probably going to attack. And I was in the same boat because once I saw the Epstein files and all. And then on the 26th, you had the Clintons being, you know, they had the deposition, I was like, dude, if they're depositing, if they're deposing the Clintons right now, we're going to war probably within a week, right? So it was almost like predictable. And if you look at what Polymarket says right now, they're saying that what's like 45, 50% chance that the ceasefire will happen by the end of March, who knows what's going to happen. But Iran is severely, you know, they've been severely damaged in a lot of ways. So I'll tell you real quick with AI and kind of some things that was really interesting that I did over the weekend was I being in Dubai. I don't speak Arabic, I don't speak Russian. And I was like, I wonder what the hell's actually going on on some of these other languages that. But I don't actually speak. And so I was using my, my cloud bot and I went out and started compiling news from all these different sources. I was translating the information and I was looking at it and it was. And I was like, well, hey, let's put this on a telegram and start, you know, messaging these out. And then I said, you know what, I'm just going to build a site. And so I did. I built a site called watchwar Live. And I was pulling in all this geopolitical stuff, all this news, all the strikes, what was happening on the markets and stuff. And it was really fascinating, like, what's happening right now, because people like myself, who's not even necessarily, I'm not a developer, I'm not technical in that area, but I'm a figure outer. And so, you know, utilizing what was capable, I was able to sort of determine all these different things. And it's been pretty fascinating. And just, you know, dude, all the money flowing back into ETFs over the last couple days, you know, it looks like money is going to start flowing back into this space. But will we ever have an altcoin rise like we were expected? Were we expecting an altcoin season? Personally, I think probably those days of shitcoins are mostly done. I think we'll see more predictive Marketing things. The big, the big chains will do stuff, but we're not going to see stuff like we had in previous altcoin runs because most of those coins have shown that they don't do shit. And so the world is tired of coins. They're tired of meme coins that don't do anything because everybody ends up rugging it eventually. So it's just an interesting space that we're in, guys. And I appreciate you guys still being at the forefront here and sharing the good gospel.
- [19:06]
Unknown Guest 1
I got a bit of a different take, I think. I think we will see an all season. I mean I agree with most of what you said, but I think we will see an off season because they do have a purpose and that's number go up. And if we see something like a UBI or something where we just have a lot of everybody just getting money for no reason, I think you will see. I mean it'll go into prediction markets, it'll go into things that, you know, easy come, easy go. And you know, pumping shitcoins is just a really fun way to. It's better than the actual casino. So I think we'll see, you know, like a shitcoin run. And I. But I also agree with the sentiment that like, you know, the strong projects like near, I don't know, just like strong majors that are not going anywhere, we'll see a lot of money pour into them as they innovate and you know, we see adoption. I don't know if that's going to be what, right around the corner. But you know, anything that pumps bitcoin will put money back into these long term actual good projects.
- [20:09]
Dave Weisberger
Dave.
- [20:12]
Gary
Hey, I haven't done the analysis myself and I'd be curious to the extent that we could do it looking at wallets on a geographic basis. But my thoughts about the current spike in bitcoin would be possibly related to flight capital. You know, we already saw headlines talking about the crypto market in Iran was what, worth $7.8 billion if I remember correctly. Some other stuff I've seen come out just highlights, you know, the sensitivity of the Persian Gulf region to water supplies. And right now Iran seems to be fairly indiscriminate in terms of what they're striking. But they have been striking power plants which are needed to power desalination plants in order to supply water. So I'm thinking that people in the Persian Gulf and I would love to do the analysis again on a wallet basis geographically are probably looking to get their money the fuck out of there. And it's not just Iran.
- [21:14]
Travis Kling
I think that a lot of people looked at the situation as the Iranian government mining bitcoin and then they were going to dump it, which is, I think, nuts. But I think that actual Iranian citizens who had access to cheap energy, who have bitcoin, it becomes a very good way to be able to get money out. Although, you know, I guess we'll see how it all, how it all piles up. I mean, this is, this is a messy situation. It's not at all clear. But I'll say it again for, just to repeat for the back rows. I don't think the market is pricing in a resolution of the situation where Iran reverts to a secular, more modern society. Because if it does, the amount of bullishness that that would unleash is Nowhere close to even 3 thought being thought about being priced into the market. And that. And considering how bitcoin was important in Iran before, having a 80, 90 million person, potentially, you know, booming economy, if that, if that takes place with bitcoin as something that's important to those people is a very big deal. I mean, it is not even, I said not even close to priced in because it's a, it's a very unlikely scenario is what most people are saying.
- [22:24]
Gary
Hey, Dave. Dave. One thing I would say is probably your best tell of whether this conflict's going to moderate or not is going to be the price of oil. It's been the best predictor in past crises in the Persian Gulf region. You know, don't look at stocks, don't look at risk markets, look at oil. And oil will give you the tell as to whether this thing's going to come to an end or not.
- [22:47]
Mauricio
Yeah, I want to throw something in on that. You got a great point. Because I was thinking about this the other day. It was like, we went in, we hit Venezuela, right? The United States went in, we got Maduro, and that effectively gives us control of the Venezuelan sort of oil supply. And now we're going in Iran. And where does China get most of their oil from? Like, they were kind of going on the down low, getting oil from Iran and Mark, getting it in unmarked tankers. They're getting 20ish percent of their oil from Iran and they were getting other percent from Venezuela. So in a way, this really kind of, this really kind of hurts China in a lot of ways because their power and the fuel that they get is now going to be controlled. And I think that this becomes one of the things that America needed to do to make sure. That the dollar stays strong because as you know, China was doing an end around and they were saying, hey, you know, buy oil in yuan, don't buy it in dollars. And you know, ever since back in the day you had to buy oil in dollars and they want to keep that thing going and they were getting outside of that ecosystem and now they're. If they go in and, and put a regime change in Iran, then now America and the west controls all of that. So I do think that there's some geopolitical things that we've maybe not even considered yet.
- [24:16]
Dave Weisberger
Did you still have your hand up?
- [24:21]
Travis Kling
I was just wondering. Oh, sorry, go ahead.
- [24:24]
Gary
The issues around Iran and oil and Venezuela and oil going to China, don't forget Russia, they obviously can make up and have China as a market now more than ever all to themselves. So, you know, look to Russia to fill the gap on Chinese oil.
- [24:43]
Travis Kling
Needs lawyer.
- [24:46]
Mauricio
Yeah.
- [24:47]
Unknown Guest 1
I was just wondering for Dave, do you think a secular or Iran is merely like, it seems to me like been a possible outcome here? They would have to be a religious. They would have to be somewhat religious or quite religious to even have any footing in, you know, that large. I don't want to turn this into that sort of space but because it would be so significant and so bullish, it's worth thinking about. But to me it's not even a. I think unlikely is hyperbole.
- [25:16]
Gary
Which Dave, are you addressing here?
- [25:20]
Dave Weisberger
Dave Weisberger got dropped.
- [25:21]
Unknown Guest 1
Oh, he got dropped.
- [25:22]
Dave Weisberger
So back off.
- [25:23]
Unknown Guest 1
I was speaking to him.
- [25:24]
Dave Weisberger
Sorry.
- [25:28]
Unknown Guest 1
I'll ask him when he comes back.
- [25:30]
Dave Weisberger
We're having a classic, classic glitchiness. Very shocked.
- [25:34]
Travis Kling
I know.
- [25:34]
Dave Weisberger
Go ahead, Mauricio.
- [25:37]
Travis Kling
Hey guys.
- [25:38]
Mauricio
So on the point around Venezuela.
- [25:45]
Dave Weisberger
I hear you.
- [25:46]
Mauricio
Yeah.
- [25:48]
Dave Weisberger
You had to skip speaker to go straight to co host to get you on. Yeah, go ahead, Maurice.
- [25:52]
Mauricio
Yeah, so I just, I just wanted to flag a few points around Venezuela. I'm from Venezuela so I speak very often to a lot of my friends and family that are still down there. So a few observations on the oil side. February. Venezuela doubled oil output in February. So basically a month in the America. The American crew or influence is already kind of, I think is doing very well. It's sort of picking up the low hanging fruit in terms of production. So they've doubled production in a few short weeks. So that, that kind of feeds into this whole idea around oil market dynamics. The other point around the sort of bullishness around Bitcoin in particular from what could be a free Iran. I want to basically highlight a few Parallels from Venezuela, who was also a country under a horrible regime that used a lot of bitcoin for a time and now is sort of seeing
- [26:51]
Travis Kling
a
- [26:51]
Mauricio
line of sight to potential democracy and freedom. I think the sort of expectation that Venezuela and potentially Iran are going to run towards bitcoin from a sort of. From the people's perspective, not so much the powers that be is it has to be taken with a grain of salt. Because what I see in Venezuela today is that, yes, Venezuela had a lot of use of bitcoin back in 20, you know, mid 20, like 2015 is 2017, 2020. And that around that time I was there, I was mining in the country at that time, and there was definitely a big use of bitcoin. But that really changed when stablecoins came in. Okay, today, Venezuela pretty much runs on tether.
- [27:36]
Gary
Right.
- [27:36]
Mauricio
And when you talk about Venezuela, this
- [27:38]
Travis Kling
space was downloaded via spacesdown.com visit to download your spaces today.
- [27:42]
Mauricio
When you talk to a Venezuelan about Bitcoin or crypto, they really see tether as like their money and everything else is sort of. They look at it as almost like a quasi equity, like an investment. And broadly speaking, the majority of the people that at least I speak to and I have insights about a lot of these people treat these as the casino, Right. They don't want to buy bitcoin. A lot of the guys, even guys I've known for decades that they know have been in bitcoin for almost a decade. I asked them what they're holding, and I still hear back things like Doge and Ripple and stuff. That's just really, I consider to be quite nihilistic in terms of the portfolio composition. So.
- [28:23]
Travis Kling
Hey, Mauricio, where do they get their stable coins from? Are they using Tron?
- [28:29]
Mauricio
Binance? Tron on Binance, Yes, Binance on Tron,
- [28:36]
Scott Melker
yeah.
- [28:36]
Mauricio
So they're not into crypto.
- [28:38]
Travis Kling
They just want to hold dollars.
- [28:39]
Mauricio
They're into getting away from hyperinflation.
- [28:42]
Travis Kling
Right.
- [28:42]
Mauricio
And debasement. Right. And I would argue that that's probably similar to Iran.
- [28:49]
Travis Kling
I mean, that's not remotely surprising. I mean, you know, look, if you're on the ground, if you know, money that you, if you think about it, I think what you just said, forget the. The Doge and. And Ripple part, but what you just said is, is a pretty consistent theme, which is dollars for spending. So that you have. So you don't, you know, you're not putting your money in something that's going to depreciate, you know, in percentage points a day, which is obviously in a hyperinflationary environment. Exactly the issue but investing is you're going to invest in what you're going to invest in. And there are different people, different dynamics, invest in different things for different reasons. If it's pure casino, it's pure casino. If it's stable investments, it's stable investments. And I think that's right. And that's the adoption curve for Bitcoin. It's the adoption curve for a lot of other things. And look, I spar with Mike McGlone every single week. And his point, which is fair, is that as long as Doge is a multi billion dollar asset, that's going to keep a lid on Bitcoin. Now, Doge may be different because of its size or whatnot, but the entirety of the cryptoverse is filled with multi hundred million or billion dollar coins that have absolutely no reason to be there. And that is always an issue. Now, right now, as I said during a rally, of course everything goes up and that's what you're seeing. But you know, we'll, we'll see, you'll see what has legs. I think
- [30:17]
Mauricio
I haven't heard what's, what's
- [30:19]
Travis Kling
the argument for Doge keeps the lid on Bitcoin? It's the whole comp. It's basically what, what Mauricio just said. It's that when you ask people about what they're holding with crypto, you know, some, you know, or what they're holding, they're holding stable coins and then they hold a portfolio and in their portfolio they, you know, people where gamblers want the higher volatility crap and the people who are investors don't. And so it depends on who you're talking to,
- [30:47]
Mauricio
I find. Thank you. I actually agree to a large extent with what Mike said. Mike McGlone like his argument around these assets being at the valuations they are create a lot of noise. One particular behavior that I've noticed around people that invest in these types of assets is that they get married to the winners. The guys that I've mentioned have still hold Doge and still hold Ripple in their portfolios. It's because they bought that back in the 2020, whatever it was rally and they 2x and 3x and because it worked once, they keep going back to this and it lacks a lot of reason. When you ask them why they're holding it, they can't give you a coherent answer from an investment perspective. They give you some type of narrative. And I think that confuses this whole value prop. Around bitcoin. And frankly, because these assets are a lot more volatile and people are looking for an exit ticket, they're not really looking to build wealth over time. And that's the other sort of misconception that people think, oh, in Venezuela, a nurse is going to start saving slowly over time. In Bitcoin, that nurse wants to escape her life tomorrow.
- [31:54]
Travis Kling
Right.
- [31:55]
Mauricio
And so that type of behavior is, I find, ironically, I find that the holders of bitcoin today, people I speak to the most are these sort of mature, sophisticated, a lot of times professionals, by and large. Right. There's always the young coders and the developers, et cetera, people that got into it much earlier through different means. But by and large, these are people that get it and have wealth to protect.
- [32:20]
Gary
Right.
- [32:21]
Mauricio
The people that are still trying to make their wealth are gambling away their lives in these nihilistic coins.
- [32:31]
Dave Weisberger
I think a lot of that is really true.
- [32:33]
Travis Kling
Yep, I do too.
- [32:34]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, there. There's definitely a bias towards the thing that worked for you in the past. Hence, you know, passionate communities. William, you were lifting your mic.
- [32:43]
William
Yeah. So I have a question. So suppose some of those coins that have high brand value do well when there is a recovery. How about those zombie ones? How are we going to get rid of the Cardanos and the polka dot? And so those ones that don't do anything, I mean, that. That's. That's a big drag on the whole market. The, the difference between this and what we had with the Internet, when we had the crash, a lot of companies died. They were gone. Poof. Finished here. They keep kicking because there's a token. Even if it's useless, it keeps trading so they never die. That is a very. Yeah, that's a structural problem.
- [33:26]
Travis Kling
I have made that point many times. I mean, like a company has to go bankrupt because they have to pay employees. And when there is none, when there's nothing going on, it gets delisted and goes poof. Meanwhile, I haven't checked recently, but let's. Let's go on coin market. By the way, it doesn't go poof when it gets. It doesn't go poof when it gets delisted. It just goes to another exchange, goes.
- [33:47]
Mauricio
And there are thousands and thousands. Yeah, and there are thousands and thousands
- [33:51]
Travis Kling
of companies, otc, that are dead zombies. Just like there are thousands and thousands of coins that are dead. And I don't think they have. I don't think they have anything to do with the price of bitcoin. The fact that they're. I just I don't. The fact that there are sucky companies, you know, there are always sucky companies and there are those people who invest in sucky companies, whether it's crypto companies or on exchanges. Here's. Here's the difference. The difference is. The difference is this, Lou, and it is a big difference is the sucky tokens are still, for the most part, many of them are still listed on Binance and Bybit and Okex and some even Coinbase, et cetera, et cetera. The sucky companies that you're talking about go to OTC markets and they get dropped down into the lowest tier of OTC markets. And if you look at OTC markets these days, that lowest tier has very little liquidity. There's nothing going on. There's much more in the, in the crypto world. The casino continues, it perpetuates now because. And there's a ticker, there's a timer on it. So even companies are under bankruptcy that trade a lot in OTC market. They either escape it or they don't. And so it's. They. It's not quite. It's. There's just less cost in a token. A token doesn't. A company still has to have something, right? You know, whereas there's no cost to operating a token. It just, It's. It just exists. That is an issue.
- [35:12]
Mauricio
But you're right, it is a huge issue. I was just. You can still go buy some Celsius token if you want. I mean, there's so many places you can buy it, right? You can buy Luna, like it's insane. Like Luna Classic. It does like $15 million a day in trading and I don't know why that is relevant. Relevant. Why are they doing that? So. Yeah, it is. It's kind of. That is actually really funny because where do dead tokens go? Where they die? They just go to shitcoin heaven and you can buy them on a worthless exchange somewhere. It's great.
- [35:41]
Travis Kling
Hey guys, where. Where do we think bitcoin has to get.
- [35:45]
Gary
What price does it get to before we start seeing selling here?
- [35:49]
Scott Melker
By the way, we just kissed. 73,000-gang.
- [35:53]
Travis Kling
Yeah, I say 70.
- [35:54]
Dave Weisberger
70, 70 when people are looking. 74 was always a very 74.
- [35:58]
Travis Kling
If you look at the heat map of the liquidations, there's some ab. I think that's why Dave's comment earlier, why this rally might fade is I think that liquidation does get snatched above there about 75.
- [36:07]
Mauricio
Yeah.
- [36:08]
Travis Kling
I want to be clear. I don't think the round I'll be shocked if it gets to 75. Well, I mean, anything can happen, Gary. I'd say that. No, no, no doubt. But I mean, you know, we've moved from 66 to 72 in, in a
- [36:20]
Unknown Guest 1
short period of time.
- [36:21]
Travis Kling
Yeah, I'm interested when the sellers come out. Yeah, I agree. I think a grinding rally. I think the people who will, people who, who are scalping and are on the upside are going to take profit and probably already are. And you know, so it's a. What the thing is, we never know in an asset class this small is who's buying and, and where the supply is. And that's, that's really the issue. It always is. You know, it's, it's just it keep. We have to remember where we came from. You know, the collapse from when it broke below the trading range, which was, you know, the, in the 80s, you know, was pretty breathtakingly quick. Now do I think we will. Generally, I would say it's be way healthier if it isn't quick. I would prefer it to stay in the 70s, in the low 70s for a few days before it starts kind of grinding higher because I think that that is a more sustainable rally. But, you know, we'll see. I don't know, I mean, I'd be curious. Are we seeing real, are we seeing signs of leverage today already? I mean, is it, is it easy to tell? I mean, Matt, you've had your hand up. What do you think? You know what?
- [37:23]
Mauricio
I haven't seen signs of leverage.
- [37:25]
Travis Kling
I've just been watching the, the, the inflow. So I'm sorry, I gotta, I got
- [37:28]
Mauricio
a call here that's just coming through.
- [37:29]
Travis Kling
I gotta jump, guys. But thank you. I appreciate the conversation.
- [37:31]
Mauricio
75 is what I'm thinking though.
- [37:33]
Travis Kling
We'll see.
- [37:37]
Dave Weisberger
Nice. Jamie, did you have your hand up there?
- [37:39]
Mauricio
Yeah, yeah.
- [37:40]
Jamie
So like I'm looking at it. I, I put in the, in the comments as well. You know, I just think it looks like it's just following the heat map and liquidation areas and then the next. There's not really a lot above from here. 73 to me was a resistance area and the next range ahead is 80. But we'd have to get, you know, obviously significantly above 73 and then maybe retest and go back up above. But I don't see that happening right now. And it looks like the liquidation areas are below price here, more like around the 70 area. The other things I'm looking at too is the bitcoin dominance. I looked at, you know, it was kind of Trading range bound around 59. Then the last week or so it looked like it had been declining going down toward 58. It's actually rebounded and it's going to the upper range of 59 towards 60, which I think is you know, significant. Showing some really incredible strength right now. But you know, I just think a lot of the price movement is typically, you know, related to, to sentiment, you know, psychological, you know, manipulation to, toward what the market makers or, or institutions feel like they can attract the most traders and, and, and you know, liquidate the high leverage traders in, in to liquidation areas. So you know, I think, you know, a lot of times news events is a, is a great way for, to get some participants and to move sediment and enter the market to, to try to clear out some liquidations areas. I think that's kind of what we're looking at right now in my opinion.
- [39:14]
Mauricio
Yeah, I agree. I wanna, I wanna answer Gary's question because here's how I see it. It's like, it seems like the market is kind of balancing out since that Jane street thing came out last week, right when they were like manipulating the price. They had their own little Bryce's secret chat and then what was happening like 10am every day the price would tank. We would, we would see coordinated liquidity providers pulling liquidity all simultaneously. Like we'd see times where winter mute would just pull their liquidity and you think hey, that's shenanigans right there. But like, well they can just pull their liquidity if they want. But what happens is, is all those longs they end up getting liquidated or whatever right in the shorts sometimes depending on how the market's going. So it's like, you know, I think Jane street getting called out maybe might clean it up a little bit. But I think with all these AI bots they're getting so good. Like I'm blown away by some of the things that I've been able to do and I'm not even all that talented with it. And so when you start getting quants in there, utilizing these tools to go out, it's going to become, it's going to become minuscule amounts of time. And we're already seeing this on like Polymarket where people are going in and if they can trade something and get 3 cent spots spread every time on every dollar, they're going to do that stuff all day long. So it's wild where we're entering this new just this is just, it's like a brave new world era where I think we're in, we're in web four now. I think we've gone beyond web three, we're in web four where these AI bots can do all this now and it's, it's unheard of territory right now.
- [40:52]
Dave Weisberger
Travis, I know that we ought to move on in a second, but I'm just going to give Mauricio his last kind of comment here and then you can take over. Go ahead, Mauricio.
- [41:01]
Mauricio
Yeah, I just wanted to make a point on leverage. I think it was Dave or someone asked about leverage in this market. So I just wanted to share a bit of what we're seeing in terms of the usual behavior during these drawdowns. What I've noticed that this isn't our first rodeo. We've been operating since 2018, so we've seen Covid, FTX, Terra Luna, all these other previous crashes and none of them are obviously identical. They all are unique. But there are some similarities that I did also see in this time around, which is usually you have these, these massive red candles down that trigger a lot of the levels that 50% loans would be liquidated at. So these are the types of loans similar to what Leden and other companies offer in terms of leverage. So it does reach that level and it's usually on a pretty aggressive move down then because some companies, some of the leverage providers at Leonard, we don't do this, but some of the leverage providers have 24 to 48 hour peering periods to meet margin calls. And that usually means that the days right after the immediate, the aggressive red candle, you see a lot of weakness because people are continuously getting liquidated because they're not really meeting these calls in time. So the next 24 to 48 hours, still you see a lot of pressure. Generally speaking, there's also a week or so after there will be a retest to try to take the price back to those levels to basically continue wiping leverage down. And I think we saw that mid last week when price reached mid-62s and bounced back. And then when I saw Bitcoin hold up after the Iran attacks. The other thing that we noticed that I can share is that we started seeing again for the first time since the drawdown, some pretty bullish positioning at LEADN from some sophisticated, I would argue, investors. So I would say that from a leverage perspective it does seem that the worst is through us. And I think right now I was expecting to form a base and rally shortly in a few weeks. I didn't expect this morning's rally, but I just wanted to Highlight that I think from a leverage perspective and bitcoin, it's sitting pretty in a relatively healthy spot given the recent downturn.
- [43:29]
Beautiful. Hey, well, thank you so much for that. Yeah. And Scott and Dave really appreciate you guys doing what you do here. And I think we're now going to go into the Q and A session. We have a really interesting sponsor coming up here tonight today for you AI. So this is one of those projects we've been talking a lot about AI and, and, and whatnot, but this is a project that, that Mario and team have, have discovered and are working with. And so this may be maybe not the view of Crypto Town hall, but they are going to come on and tell about the product. And this is kind of interesting because I remember chatting with these guys a few months ago. And so this is the first AI powered identity solution on chain where people can grow their reputation. So I found this was fascinating before and Zan is with us today from for you Zan. How are you doing, guys?
- [44:23]
Zan
I'm great. GM wanted to just say hi from Bangkok. Thank you for, you know, the very interesting perspective on private movements. But, you know, now I'm just going to be talking a little bit about reputation, you know, also providing a fresh perspective on it, hopefully.
- [44:41]
Mauricio
Right on. So let's get into it real quick then because we have about 15 minutes is. So what specific problem would you guys say that for you is actually solving? And why does that necessarily matter right now? And why choose a crypto to do it?
- [44:57]
Zan
Okay, yeah. So I think first of all I want to start by saying that, you know, this has been quite a crazy year so far, but 2027 is going to get crazy crazier, you know, because by then we won't even know what's real anymore. Half of Twitter will all be bots. 30% of influencer marketing will be fraud. And AI can fake everything except time. Right? So my name is Zen. I'm one of the co founders of for you AI. We are the ones who are building the trust layer for the AI economy. So how this works is that first we track reputation as a trajectory, not a snapshot. We have what we call a sacred timeline which captures who you're becoming, not just who you are. So bots can fake engagement, but they can't fake time. Secondly, we're proof based and not opinion based. This is our key difference with competitors in this space, whereby your reputation is actually equivalent to verifiable actions and not subjective reviews. And thirdly, we unlock passive income for our users and you know, like they can deploy AI agents to do drop shipping, you know, wholesale stuff in E commerce. And you know, like essentially their reputation equals to an access to more income. So we're not just building another credential system and we're building infrastructure. So I think this is, you know, why it's important and why now? Because, you know, in, in this time, I think it's, it's like there's no better time than now, you know, where like there's a lot, there's a lot of scams, markets are crashing, there's, you know, all these things that are happening in the world and things like that. But then like you correctly mentioned, we did start off as an identity protocol that we are leveraging. You know, we started from identity, but we started to think that, hey, you know, reputation is something that is important and it's something that you need to, to start tracking. Yeah,
- [47:07]
Mauricio
yeah, it's really fascinating because especially with all these AI agents coming in. And that's why I like the idea of the identity thing. Like how do you identify as a human or if you identify as an agent and how that works. But maybe talk about how on chain reputation, what it means to you guys. And there's a new standard I think you guys are using called ERC8004 that I don't even know that many people have heard about. So could you maybe talk about how that all fits in? Because that's, that's probably new to a lot of people listening.
- [47:35]
Zan
Yeah, sure. So I think ERC804 is the new standard for, you know, trustless agents developed by Ethereum. And it is still very new. Well, they proposed it in August last year, but then the first draft is still being drafted. Now there are as far as we know, two other chains that have adopted it, Base and bnb. And because we are building and scaling on bnb. So as you mentioned on chain, reputation is still very early and standards like ERC804 are just starting to formalize how agents and smart accounts can operate economically on chain. So this is the start of something big. We are moving towards a world where not only humans but also AI agents can hold assets, can execute and participate in governance. When this happens, identity and reputation then stop being optional features, they become core infrastructure. So right now most on chain reputation systems are, you know, like still in a trial and error kind of phase. Right? Most only focus on your wallet history and some on like social scorings and rankings. Others are like, or rather those scoring systems are not like portable across different Ecosystems. So the space is very fragmented and there's no unified reputation layer. So as this infrastructure matures, you know, for you, we believe that three things will happen. So first is that your reputation will move from being cosmetic to actually being functional. So this means that, you know, you can determine access and incentives and, you know, you can pull your weight and try to get more opportunities for yourself. And secondly, you know, we believe that portability will become critical. And thirdly, that, you know, verification will actually matter more than engagement. So you know how like in the previous era of infofi, which, you know, unfortunately collapsed, you know, like there were a lot of, there was a lot of noise in the space, but, you know, the collapse of it proved that, you know, systems would need to actually distinguish between real contributions and just noise or volume. Right. So I think this is exactly where for UAI fits in. We're building a unified reputation infrastructure. So, you know, we connect your actions across different things like your wallets, social platforms, communities, and also AI activity into one evolving identity. So, you know, I always give this. Well, I always say this, right? What is actually the key difference between your identity and your reputation? Your identity is what you tell who you tell other people you are, and your reputation is who other people say you are. Right. So it's always evolving. Right. Your reputation is never just good or bad. You know, it's something that's changing over time, you know, which goes back to my, my opening sentence about how AI can fake everything except time. Right. So we have different features. Sorry, I feel like I'm ranting a little bit because I'm very excited about this topic. So, yeah, we have different features to help you to, or help anybody's reputation to become more dynamic, more quantifiable, you know, and to continue to evolve with time. Yeah, so just like how, you know, like standards like ERCAO4 expand what agents can do on chain, we also focus on who is doing it and how consistently they have proven themselves over time.
- [51:31]
Mauricio
Yeah, yeah, it was really fascinating because, I mean, you mentioned a couple of really interesting things in there. So like you're able to, to track like for you, from, from the human. You're doing this. This, this, here's your, here's your LinkedIn. Here's that, here's what you do, but here's your agents that you're using now this agent's doing this. You know, I've always thought we needed a reputation sort of a platform for like pump fun because you have these, some yahoos going in there that's launched 500 plus shit coins and pulled the rug so many times. Like we should know that person or that wallet or that sort of, you know, web of wallets. Yeah. Like you don't trust anything these people do, right? Or anything that they touch in, in the future. Because. And that's where I think that people are going to maybe be bad or they're going to feel bad about what they've done because in the future we're going to be able and trace that blockchain and figure out, look, these guys did all of this and you're going to have a bad reputation because maybe something like for you is going in and. And reverse engineering their footprint potentially.
- [52:32]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah.
- [52:32]
Mauricio
Is that kind of what you're saying?
- [52:33]
Zan
Yes, yes, totally. And I think it also like goes back to my point of, you know, like the key difference between us and like competitors in the space, right. Of like where we're different is really that, you know, like you mentioned you need to kind of provide evidence, right, for everything that you're doing and you know, not just base it off other people's opinions. So yes, I think it's important to also like be calling out scammers and you know, like negative players and all that. But at the same time, I think a lot of people have heard me say this. I am a big fan of Eileen Gu and you know, she's obviously been quite a controversial figure in the world recently, right? But you know, like, it makes me wonder, right, like, if she has all these accolades and all these milestones under her belt, if she's able to just like have a score or something that proves everything that she is and stands for, then all these other people's opinions against her, they will just fall naturally. And I think for us, you know, it is then very important that we create a scoring system that will continue to improve with time. It's not like, oh, this is it right now, and then it's going to be that same scoring system forever. What we have now is what we call the Identify score, which is the core reputation index of our entire ecosystem, which represents your online identity and credibility. So what we do is we analyze multiple signals such as your social credibility and engagement, your on chain behavior and wallet activity, like you mentioned, community participation, campaign contributions, you know, and other verified achievements and your behavioral history. So for instance, like, you know, this is. It could also be something very fluffy, right? But, but important to you as an individual. So for instance, I'm very big on fashion, right? And I love going for Paris Fashion Week, Milan Fashion Week, Tokyo Fashion Week. And I want to be very, like, verify that I have gone for these events so that I can get invited again the next year by different, you know, fashion powerhouses. Right. So this then becomes important to me as an individual to have something to verify it. Right. And this is where, you know, we add another feature in our ecosystem. So it's what we call red badges, which are then a verifiable proof of your reputation. So, you know, so I can actually choose to issue my own rep badge for, let's say, Milan Fashion Week, which was happening last week. And, you know, I can say, so everybody who has been there, it's kind of like, it can be like a PO app, but then, you know, this is like on chain proof for, like, events or a milestone that is important to you, and you can actually build your own community around it. And, you know, obviously, if this adds to your reputation, brands can come in and, you know, they can choose to interact with you, you can choose to monetize it. You can. There are many different things you can do. So then together.
- [55:52]
Mauricio
That's fascinating.
- [55:53]
Zan
Yeah. So together we create a system where your reputation is both dynamic and verifiable. And it actually, you know, it's a stable proof of your contribution.
- [56:04]
Mauricio
Perfect. So basically, you made this so you could get cool invites to the Fashion Week events, huh? Nice. Hey, as we wrap this up here, because we are running out of time, let the people know what can they do to earn from their reputation? How can they get involved? And how. How. What would you like them to do? What's your call to action today?
- [56:24]
Zan
Yeah, so, yeah, I'll keep it fairly short. So this, you know, it's very timely that we have this space today because our TGE is actually happening next Thursday on the 12th. Our AirDrop campaign is still ongoing, but, you know, it's about to end. So I think that's something you can get involved with immediately. But, you know, if you miss that. But, you know, I just want to invite everybody to just stay connected with us, follow us on our official channels for UAI on X, and also join our Discord and Telegram channels. But beyond the tge, we really want to invite you to come and explore our platform, join our communities, participate in all the different quests and campaigns, and start to stack your reputation early, because in this world that we're moving towards, your reputation will become a real asset. And we believe that the rep era is just getting started.
- [57:21]
Mauricio
Love it. So start stacking your reputation. That is beautiful.
- [57:25]
Zan
I want to welcome, you know, everybody who wants to, you know, join us for a partnership can be a marketing partnership or, you know, if you are exploring how to grow your community, you know, take a look at us. We believe we have some of the best tools in the market and. Yeah, you know, like, and we're really here for the long term, so hopefully we can get some meaningful partnerships. Can also be with brands or if you are just starting out as a Kol, I think you'll enjoy being on our platform.
- [57:58]
Mauricio
Perfect. I love it. The website is 4uaI IO right on. All right, Zam, we really appreciate it. Thank you so much for coming on. And thank you, everybody, for tuning in to this episode of Crypto Town Hall. Thank you. Dave, you still with us, brother?
- [58:19]
Gary
Perfect.
- [58:20]
Travis Kling
I'm here, but I. I was on a different page. I have to always have to navigate back. Thanks, Travis.
- [58:24]
Mauricio
No, I hear you. I love it. Well, thanks, man. I appreciate it. It's great to see you again. Haven't. Haven't chatted in a while, so it's good to see you guys. Look, a lot of great people on board today. Thank you so much. Make sure you guys go out, connect with Zan and the other speakers that were in here today. Make sure you follow them. Any final words of wisdom, Mr. Dave,
- [58:42]
Travis Kling
for the people, I mean, the final words of wisdom are it's never as low as you think, and it's never as. As. As bullish as you think at the top. So, you know, just keep grounded and. And grind on. That's. That's the best thing you can do.
- [58:58]
Gary
Beautiful. Yeah.
- [59:00]
Mauricio
Thank you. We'll see you guys next time.
- [59:01]
Zan
Thank you. Bye. Bye.