← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
BTC Back to 2021 Levels! Is This the Ultimate Shakeout? #CryptoTownHall
01:05:40
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- [00:00]
A
Good morning everybody.
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B
Welcome to Crypto Town hall every day here on X at 10:15am Eastern Standard Time. And what a day to be alive. Bitcoin and crypto markets looking extremely healthy. Everyone's happy. No depression or anger in the comments at all. Now obviously crypto breaking down alongside seemingly everything else. Hard to host even. I smelting town hall today with silver down from, I don't know, 90 bucks to 74 bucks. It is disgusting out there. If you look at the headlines, it's nothing but doom, death and despair for all markets. AI metals, crypto. If you look at any headline, everything is apparently going to zero and fast. But before we talk about how fast everything is obviously going to zero, we do have an incredible sponsor.
- [00:54]
C
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- [00:56]
B
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- [01:36]
A
Dave, I'm going to go to you.
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B
And then I'm going to let you and Mike just talk.
- [01:40]
A
Well, I mean, no, I, I don't want to get into that. You know, it is what it is, right? You know, everything is getting sold. Quote, cash is king. The fact that we're printing tons of it shouldn't matter, right? You know, so there you go. Everyone get, get up, tin foil, hats on and dig your shelters in the backyard. Get plenty of canned goods and, and that's it. And we'll wait for it. Now all, all, all aside, the there is, you know, this is what capitulation looks like. It is someone you know, it's, it's hard for me to tell because I lost all my follows and followers on X. My one public service announcement for myself is if you think you're following me, you probably aren't because X has suspended my account because somebody hacked it and they for some reason refused to give it back to me. So I'll ask everyone, if you do like my voice, even remotely, please click on me and follow me because I, I'm starting to give up. I keep getting form letters every morning from them saying you can't get followed. So you know, whatever, they can't verify it's me. Which by the way tells you something about X. And since everyone who's verified knows you have to give an ID and show them your ID and they could compare the one from my original account to the one that I just set up to this one, but for some reason they're not technologically capable enough of doing so. So you know, I don't really understand. But in any case, you know, I put it on a video this morning. I think that we are seeing capitulation. I have no idea where the bottom is, although I suspect Your point that 57, which is the 200 day moving average, is likely to be something that's going to get tagged what you're seeing.
- [03:20]
B
It's also the 50 ma on the monthly by the way.
- [03:23]
A
Right. So I mean look, when you look at this, the one most interesting fact I saw this morning as I was going through, there are two things that I care about. One is that the bitcoin hash rate, weirdly it's because of the adjustment, despite everything being horrible two days ago and everything through it, tip back, tick back up over a billion terahashes. This is not what it looks like at bottoms. And if you go back through history you can see what bottoms look like. But here we are. You know, network effects are, are very difficult to unravel. If bitcoin is going to fail entirely, then the price today makes sense. If there, if that probability is higher, but that's really what you're betting on because apps in bitcoin failing entirely, then the price right now looks like everyone's kind of dumping out at the same time. And you see, we've seen this every time. I mean this morning it had rallied back up over 70. And then what happened? NASDAQ and all the other markets started falling and everything started falling together. And so that's bound to happen. It's a question of figuring out where the price zones really are. And Mike and I can disagree on his 10,000 call and my in the 50s call. It doesn't really matter. The truth is is where will we zoom out? Now a couple of things. Macro wise, this will be the largest tax refund season in history, but it's only February and that generally takes a couple of months. You know, it's generally in May that we start seeing the effect of that. And that by the way, is A significant amount. We're talking about $100 billion more in tax refunds this year than last year. So 400 billion in total. Some of it, some of it will end up in a lot of these distressed assets. The truth is, right now you just have to not be leveraged. If you're going to try to pick a bottom, good luck to you. I would say dca and understand it's really a question of conviction. But one other point I want to make, and this is a gore of point, and I think this matters. I've been saying this on this space for two years now, that at some point value is going to matter. And what we're seeing in the world of crypto is bitcoin makes us crazy. But it's a bloodletting. And it's a bloodletting that makes sense. Right? You know, you see, you know, tokens that you don't know where the value is going to come from getting absolutely destroyed. So this is something that Mike has said for years and the one thing I agree with him is that until all the memes that have no chance of monetization or all the bullshit gets led out of the crypto market, that's when you're going to find a bottom. And to be blunt, I don't think we're there yet. I think that until founders actually start coming out with definitive statements of where value is going to be and how token holders benefit alongside them as opposed to treating tokens as non dilutive capital, we're not at the bottom. And so I do think, however, we are a lot closer to the bottom. And I think that newer projects are going to do this. And you know, Gaurav, I've been teeing you up because I do think that this is important. This is crypto town hall, after all. And we could talk about markets and despair, but we really need to do is is. I don't know if Kyle Samani leaving multicoin means a damn thing, but I do think that, that we're getting signals that the market is changing and I think that could be for the better multicoin.
- [06:50]
B
But he said to focus on Ford Industries and he's taking all of his payout from multicoin and forward stock and is still the CEO of Forward, so I don't know. Right, well, but, and like these le the market.
- [07:01]
A
No, no, I understand that, but, but he, he's making a bet. That's my point. My point is he's making a bet on a very specific set of things as opposed to placing his bets and BE and dumping on retail as exit liquidity. Is that fair?
- [07:17]
D
Yeah. We have, we have Vinnie as a speaker. Let's not bring Salana and Kyle and all these people. We have, we have somebody who can cover all of that up.
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E
I don't think you guys should call it anything.
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A
Hey, look, I'm trying. My job is to be provocative, guys.
- [07:32]
D
Yeah, yeah, exactly. You just did your job.
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F
Well.
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B
Vinny. We can't hear you. Vinny. You're like Michael. It sounds like you're in a echo chamber.
- [07:44]
D
Yeah, but I'll cover up for Vinny while he's getting his mic fixed. If you're. If your job, Dave, is to trigger, then you have triggered Vinny. As much as I know him since the civic days, you've got his attention. And now he'll speak for 10, 20, 15 minutes straight. Vinny go in?
- [08:06]
A
Yeah, I think he. I think he dropped and he's going to come back.
- [08:08]
D
Gotcha. So I'll tell you an interesting thing that I've observed over the last two weeks. And I was planning to say that on the last space three days ago when I appeared here, but the time was short. So a lot of my old friends, I mean one guy specifically who nailed it in asset management with building up the first uranium plutonium physical reserve 20 years ago before it had a run. And then he did a big, big gain where he's a British guy, British asset manager with gold. And then of course he was in crypto since 2016 along with me in the UAE market. I mean he was literally leading every single large name, including the partners of Binance today. So like literally the legends of crypto of that time. And he said a fantastic thing that I definitely want to quote. And of course his name, David Marshall, a lot of guys here would probably know him, he said, bro, I don't hold bitcoin because bitcoin is great, but it's more like a cult. And I'm a value investor. I'm a forward looking value investor. And so I don't hold bitcoin. Like I don't hold gold. While these are extremely valuable assets, we are people depending on the value of the future and innovation. And that's why I hold silver and I hold copper. Because that is the industrialization of us that we are looking at and all the budgeting and allocations that have been done in the last one and a half years of Trump era and his push towards bringing production back to us and then at the same time the whole world moving towards whatever production I'm sure everybody here knows AI, data centers, solar, all of these are very silver and copper intensive industries. And then he says, similarly, if I do have to, let's say allocate 10% of my budgets into crypto, I wouldn't do bitcoin. I'd do Solana. I do Ethereum. He's a lifetime Ethereum fan, by the way. So that's like something I've been hearing in a hundred different versions across the last two months particularly. And then in the last two weeks more than ever. And Scott knows that I still do like 14 hours a day calls. And my calendar is like back to back packed for 12, 14 hours. And so I do a lot of calls around the world. So that's a pretty profound.
- [10:41]
G
Are you saying that gold isn't a thing?
- [10:43]
D
No, I'm just, I'm quoting someone else if that's.
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B
But I don't understand.
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G
Is that what he's saying? Are you agreeing with that? I don't understand.
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D
Is that Lou?
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G
I mean, I certainly. Sorry, who's speaking?
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B
I'm speaking.
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G
Gold's been around for 5,000 years.
- [11:00]
D
Who's the speaker? Some glitch with X. Oh, yeah, Lou. It sounded like Lou, but I can only see him as a listener. Lou. No, no, no, I'm not saying that at all. And this guy is also not. He's typically behaving like a high performance asset manager who is not driven by cults or history.
- [11:19]
E
Oh, sure.
- [11:20]
G
No, David's a smart guy.
- [11:22]
D
Yeah. And I do agree with him. I sold most of my bitcoins in the rally of 2021. Of course, not the best decision. I'm not saying it was, but I'm just saying that a lot of innovation and utility believers. I mean, look at Solana. I so wish Vinny's. But look at Solana. Look at the kind of job. We are not happy with our investment. And I'm sure, Scott, I'm not sure if you're invested as well, but Verachain is actually building a good pipeline of investments. Of course the token is shit and my investment is down and I'm furious. But look at what Monad is doing. They have a pretty solid pipeline of institutional utility and so on and so forth. So while bitcoin and gold remain the golden standards, as we would want to call them for investments, and God saved me from Gary's comments today, but.
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E
We'Ve.
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D
Been betting our lives, and I'm definitely not saying I'm the best asset manager, but we've been betting our lives on Innovation because innovation is the only forward looking truth and from that particular, let's say color of the world it is.
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A
Okay.
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D
Or let's say it's practically the most reasonable time now to start looking at innovation and production. If you're looking at a three year or a five year cycle. Very quickly. I know Scott calls my talks of monologues so very quickly wrapping another important point. Dave, the mining thing is over. I think it was over the moment we, we stopped looking at the four year cycles. And I know there's a lot of arguments about the four year cycle but I think the mining and the mining hash rate narrative was lost along with the same four year cycle narrative. And if you believe in the four year cycle narrative then definitely it's useful to quote the mining narrative. But I don't think it has anything to do with short term cycles and with giants like American bitcoin and the already existing giants jumping into mining and even the stablecoin guys like Tether investing into mining and holding gigantic size of mining and a zillion other public companies and we don't want to call them DATs anymore. Everybody's into mining and so it's diffused in all these, on all these value life cycles or investments. Life cycle, I think if that makes sense.
- [14:13]
A
I mean. Well, sort of. I mean look, network effects are still network effects and there's lots of things going on. I mean I, I don't want to talk about silver today. I'd like to take a day off but you know, if we have to we could. There's a lot of geopolitical stuff going on here too and there's a lot of game theory stuff going on here too and we could kind of unpack all of it, but I think that's a big deal anyway.
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D
Let's do a one minute each Silver pro and cons. It'll be fun.
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A
Well, yeah, I was, Paul had. Well never mind. He's gone now. At least I don't see him anymore. I saw him reacting. I wanted to let him say what his reaction were. But yeah, I mean look, the, what's going on geopolitically is we are a massive debtor nation and there's all sorts of stuff, you know, kind of floating around the Internet. But as far as silver is concerned, the biggest thing is the, the difference between prices here and the prices in Shanghai. Right. You know, and it's, we all, we don't know how much the Chinese government are mining bitcoin either.
- [15:18]
D
Yeah, Let me, let me bring the.
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A
India perspective 34 premium to buy physical silver. You know what are they willing to do on other assets? And that's really an interesting question.
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D
Sorry, yeah, sorry about interrupting. I thought we were doing one minute quickly. So I'll use one minute for the India silver story. From March till December, India and Indian institutions ended up just as a large country, I mean just as a country ended up buying $9 billion of silver and then parallelly they approved silver spot ETFs. So every single ETF has to hold silver in spot. And you know how crazy Indians are about gold and silver. So that went off absolutely nuts. And so these ETFs started sourcing their their silver from Britain, their usual ties. However, India as a country sourced it from like 15 different sources. And so they were able to keep their prices pretty low somewhere around if I was to take us reference $48 and then three large solar manufacturers of the country that already have contracts of somewhere in billions not released also ended up acquiring a crazy amount of silver. All in all just India as a political territory ended up acquiring 42% of the annual gold production of the world. Through all these places let's not forget that the world already consumes more than 80% silver produced in a year. So if one party takes that, and that's just the India story, I know I've exceeded my one minute. I'll quickly take 10 more seconds. BRICS currency. The BRICS currency has been proposed so far and the most voted proposal is a basket of currency, more like of a multi asset ETF if you may think so. And of course after gold the most important basket currency, I mean currency in the basket is silver. So all BRICS nations are getting to that and that's it. So much to talk about.
- [17:32]
B
I want to hear Mike's perspective on what's happening with markets right now.
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C
Well hello, I really appreciate 3 Mike. I think I really appreciate Gurav's comments because he mentioned the two main commodities I would consider consider myself net short. That's when copper got above $6. Right now it's 576 when silver got about 100. Right now it's 78. I think they're both girl of the key thing you remember you forgot about trading. Never buy a high elastic commodity after it goes up a lot. If you're not in it before it goes up, never do it. Silver will rip your face off. And I'm just saying I'd rather be net short silver be willing to take stops above 100. What you just said is all past Tense. What's happening now is what happened, what happened with cryptos last year. You're hearing the narrative and maybe it's the benefit being on the Bloomberg terminal. I'm hearing the narrative for the metals are just as worse than they were for cryptos last year. It's too late, trade's over. Don't jump on board unless you're just a trader. Good luck. But so for now, I think what's happening in markets, this is shaping up to me, to me, maybe a better trading year than 2008. And it's just getting started. The stock market hasn't really started rolling over yet. Cryptos are leading the way. And I'll give you a key level, 64,000 in Bitcoin, if you've been lucky enough to be short. To me, think about trading. This is a tremendous environment. You know, if you're stuck overweight long, maybe stop yourself out and then look at the volatility. 64,000 is basically the mean and mode from 2024. If you're lucky enough to be short, that's a worthy level to be putting in little buys and maybe in test longs for a trade. Big picture, I think it's going way much lower. But it's a trade and market's going down a lot. It's getting beat up. I mean, look at Ethereum. If it gets down to 1500, it's going to be flipping by tether. I think just a matter of tethered, slipping everything except Bitcoin since it's been around. It's just the trend that's going there. The bottom line is there's one key market that's up today and that's bonds, treasuries. And to me, that's going to be. When we look at this year and we're talking about markets a year from now, we're going to say that was the best trade this year. The key thing is, and Scott, is you're always nice about reminding me when I'm right, but that's the number one market I've been wrong on for three years. To me, that's the trade. Seize the opportunity. This is a great market for trading and forget about bias long. So I think I'm trying to figure out what I'm going to send the editors to my headline tomorrow. And I think it's probably going to be Trump. Cryptos got trumped our stocks next. And to me that's the key thing. The enthusiasm for cryptos was stopped out by Trump. He put in the peak. Thank you very Much. And now we're just purging. And it's clearly true. What Dave said is we have to finish this purge. Things like dogecoin are still worth almost $15 billion. That's just silly, stupid. I mean, our future generations are going to laugh at.
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G
Hey, Mike, Mike, Was there a purge in stocks? Aren't there. Aren't there thousands and thousands and thousands of pieces of shit stocks? That's my point.
- [20:24]
C
It hasn't started yet. That's. Let me finish. It hasn't started yet. It's just. You haven't seen. You ain't seen nothing yet. Based on, like, again, I think this is going to be like 2008. Cryptos led the way up, they're leading the way down. Stock market's just starting to roll over, and I think the stock market's going to get trumped. Meaning, let's just start with a 10% correction. Once you get that 10% correction, not only does that accomplish almost everything Trump's looking for, the midterms, it crushes. I mean, Fed will ease in a heartbeat. It gets. Inflation takes it out. Inflation will maybe flip to deflation. It always has in history. Energy will drop, interest rates will drop, yields will drop. It's just a matter of time. And I think Besson's smart enough to lean over to Donald and say, hey, don't you want to get. You want to get what you want with lower inflation and maybe have the, you know, your constituents not be, you know, who not don't care about all the rich people own stocks. This is where we're tilting right now. The key thing is, bottom line is cryptos lead the way, getting to good support for trade. But be careful being long. Any form of risk ass. And I'll mention a Gurav if you're long silver or, or any type of industrial, most notably copper, you have to look over that stock market. You have to have it go up because it drops 10%, silver's dropping 20 or 30%. So I still think the first key level to maybe look at potentially buying silver is around 50 copper, maybe below 5 if you're lucky. But you're basically long the stock market at the most elevated levels ever. So I think we're working into a paradigm shift. We're going to look back at this from history and say, yeah, remember those tulips? Well, those cryptos were just more silly than ever. So we're starting the purge. It's trickling over the stock market. It's only February, and I just love how it's Playing out because for instance I was on a call the other night with Hong Kong and what they told me was exactly the same things I heard in cryptos last year. We had people like me saying yeah you don't want to be long silver and gold but the sell side selling who are on the call ETFs were all excited about their products. So again this is a tremendous environment to trade right now we're getting to good supports maybe like I said 64,000. The reason I mentioned that is because what set me off was 2024 we'll be look back at the year as good as it gets for cryptos. We had having record setting stock market ETFs launched and the number one thing was Trump got elected. So what, what did that do? We all saw Dave loved all the Milani coins and all these meme coins that put in the peak and now we're just heading toward the bear market. Sure we're going to get bounces but remember this is just getting started so and stop picking bottoms okay for, for a trade, wait for a rally to sell. That's what's worked out so well so so far. So I'll end with this. The key levels markets I put for prudent shorts for bitcoin okay we got that. We got to near 100 didn't get there. Copper when it popped above 6 and stopped a few people out went back over silver above 100 it went there potentially crude oil around 65. It's a bear market. It's popped in their last year's mean and bottom line is the mean and mode from 2024 was about 64. So that's just a little lesson I learned in the trading pit. When you're on a trade and you go back to the key mean that's where you look for it to hold support.
- [23:35]
E
Mark, I, I actually agree with almost everything you're saying. Personally. Yeah, personally I think what people are missing out is like the, the meat of this move has happened for now. There could be a balance, there could be some reversion but like people try to. One of the lessons I've learned in trading is don't enter a trade once the move has already happened. Right. You should, you should profitate, you should do those sorts of things. Risk adjustment but don't try cat to move while it's happening. And, and look at the IVS right now in Bitcoin it's over 100% on, on the, you know the daily 1, 2, 3, 4 days out. It's insane so just playing put options for example, is, it's nuts right now with the IVs so high. But I think that this is a trader's dream. Like if you were well positioned before the, before the sort of down this downswing, Even, even from 82 down here, you know, you're playing some sort of leverage options, etc. This is, this is great on, on the put side, obviously, you know, the, the calls have gotten hammered. But yeah, I think, you know, there is some, you know, everyone's like talking about the, you know, the charts and the support levels and the macro. There's also a sociological issue here. Like, I don't think we should underplay the fact that one of the trending topics on X right now is pito coin, hashtag pedo coin. And everyone's calling bitcoin pedo coin because of the bitcoin core developers ties to Jeffrey Epstein. Like, let's not underplay what that means where everyone is not like the tweets are insane. I can't even keep up right now with people basically being angry with Adam Back who was mentioned in the bitcoin white paper, his many people believe to be satoshi and his ties and blockstreams ties to, to, you know, to Jeffrey Epstein. I mean, I'd love to get everyone's thoughts on that. I mean, I'm pissed about it. Like Adam Back told us a whole bunch of things we believed and now we, we. He's a, you know, he's an Epstein co conspirator. Like. Yeah. Any thoughts on that?
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A
I think it's the same as, as when people looked at the Silk Road and tied bitcoin going with that. I mean, I mean, Vinnie.
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E
No, no, this is different. This is different. This is very, very different. Okay, Silk Road, they were not contributing code. They were using bitcoin. Right. They were not deciding on bitcoin protocol, bitcoin code direction, any of that stuff.
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A
That's very different, Vinnie. I mean, look, I, I don't know anything.
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E
No, no, no, no, no, hold on. The philosophical views on bitcoin have been shaped by the philosophical views of the.
- [25:55]
A
COR and, and because so how many people are horrible human beings on this planet? Well.
- [26:10]
E
Let'S talk about.
- [26:10]
A
Seriously. I mean, you know, it's like if you, you start looking for guilt by association and investing as such, you're, you're gonna end up very poor.
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E
No, I, I do, I, I do actually don't, I don't invest in anything I think is unsavory. Like, I don't invest in sure.
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A
Yeah. So.
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E
So. Or back by. As a startup investor, if I meet a founder that's got a really, you know, sketchy background, or I just think that. Don't think they're a good or a nice person, I don't put money behind them.
- [26:35]
A
Sure. But when. So you have a company who has a CEO who does horrible things.
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E
Yeah, I'd sell my.
- [26:41]
A
And people do. And if it's a good company, when they kick him out and he's no longer making decisions, then the company goes, you know.
- [26:49]
E
Well, I. If he's still a shareholder, I wouldn't.
- [26:51]
A
This game works.
- [26:52]
B
Works.
- [26:52]
E
I mean, if he's a shareholder, I wouldn't buy it. Like, literally, I, I do not give money to bad people. And, and that's. That's just a personal philosophy.
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D
I think this conversation is beyond that philosophy because we didn't come into Bitcoin because it had an incredible past and we got to know about that history. We all, most of us came into Bitcoin because the current code was fully decentralized, auditable, and distributed. Right. Nobody came to Bitcoin because they knew Satoshi was a great guy. Nobody came to Bitcoin because they thought Silk Road was an absolutely amazing utility. Right. We all came to Bitcoin.
- [27:30]
A
I would use a simple example. Microsoft. Right. Is there any doubt that the person who looks the worst at this point in the public eye is Bill Gates? Anybody is going to take the other side of that.
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E
I don't use Microsoft.
- [27:42]
A
Fine. Microsoft's market cap is. Is still rather large. And I don't think anyone's dumping Microsoft because it was founded by a absolute scumbag. And we all kind of know that he is now. I mean, you know, unless, I mean, look, you know, whether it's the Russian hookers or the stuff on the vaccines or. So many things have come out. But no one's dumping Microsoft. They're dumping Bitcoin for a much more obscure and tenuous relationship. Which is another way of saying, if Scott were here and I think he had to jump out, that people look for excuses and it just happens to be that it's timed as an excuse. And look, excuses are right. Right. You know, when is hitting the fan, everything hits the fan. It's always.
- [28:27]
E
It's fundamentally a trust issue. Dave. Like, I posted a. A tweet yesterday, which I think a lot of people got angry about. A lot of people actually were supportive about it. And I said, well, what can we trust about what Adam Back has said to us? I mean, he said a Bunch of things.
- [28:42]
G
Yeah, it's all in the code.
- [28:44]
E
No, no, no, no. Hold on. Lou, one second. Lou, one second. Yes, the code has changed. Okay, so they revoked Gavin Andreessen's access. Who's Satoshi trusted. And they said trust us. And Gavin said okay, I mean, Kevin said Craig Wright is Satoshi for whatever reason, that's fine. They revoked his access. So now I look back and go, well, we kind of trusted Adam back on a go forward basis. He's an Epstein co conspirator with this whole thing and mit, et cetera. But we not. We don't trust Gavin Andreessen. Why is that? Gavin told Epstein to off when he invited him to the island. But, but, but Adam back went to the island. So do we believe what Adam says about Craig Wright versus what Gavin says? I just don't know what to believe anymore. Like, who do you trust? This is my issue.
- [29:32]
D
The code. Do you trust the code?
- [29:34]
E
But the code is changed and it was changed by Adam and his team at Blockstream.
- [29:39]
D
Well, we trust the current code, yes.
- [29:42]
E
You can go look at the branches. Gavin fought Adam against the changes they were making and then they kicked him out and they took his keys away.
- [29:50]
D
No, no, Vinny, I'm not even referring to who did what. I'm just saying go today, start your journey today with bitcoin. Go read the code. That code is distributed and well mined with good people.
- [30:01]
E
You're looking at it from the wrong perspective. Anyway, the point I'm just trying to make is these are the questions and this is why PETO Coin is trending. This is why people are up in arms in the community. I don't have to pass judgment on this, but let's just talk about the, the social aspects of bitcoin and people are pissed. And you look at the price, people vote with their, with their money and just, you know, it's very clear for what we're seeing right now as the Epstein files will drop this weekend. There's a huge search and I've had a lot of OG guys ping me saying they're getting out because they're just pissed off with what happened with Blockstream and Adam. And that's all I have to say on the topic.
- [30:37]
D
Yeah, on that topic, I'll conclude by saying that it's. It's a good way of, you know, creating a sell off. I think there have been similar news of all sorts. Not similar, of course. This is very in magnitude bigger and can be weaponized better. But the media, the media that works for. Let's say these so called market makers and people that benefit from from a market like this, I think this is a good chance for them to weaponize it and they are the whole propaganda machine. But you're right in a way. It's definitely people are voting from their money because they always fall for one or the other of these propagandas and that's what the other guys are good at.
- [31:20]
H
This space was downloaded via spacesdown.com visit to download your spaces today.
- [31:26]
A
So I see Brian and then Paul.
- [31:29]
I
Yeah, hey everybody and thank you. Yeah, I am not so sure that we need a purge in my opinion and I just wanted to like move it up a level and defend crypto for a second. So my view is that crypto and smart contract blockchains tautologically offers all these wonderful use cases and benefits not available with other technologies. These are things like removal of intermediaries, democratization of value exchange. And we're seeing this in real time tangibly come through with our upgrading of our antiquated financial infrastructure. Number two, my view is that it's such a nascent asset versus what it'll become, that you don't actually have any sort of real cash flows that you can throw into any sort of valuation model. And that means it's going to be volatile and it's going to change trade much more on sentiment or the multiple. And when I, I'm a fundamentals guy, look at the underlying fundamentals, those are actually in long term secular expansion. So you look at things like daily active users, number of developers, corporate adoption, all these things are up and to the right. And so I kind of think that prices will ebb and flow obviously feels pretty bad right now. They can certainly go a lot lower but over time like the fundamentals are moving up and that over time prices will follow fundamentals. So I'm still very long crypto and still very bullish on what it'll ultimately become and where prices will go over the medium and long term.
- [32:59]
A
Paul.
- [33:01]
H
I mean I think you nailed it. Brian. The sense that you talked about crypto as a whole and I think the, the big challenge that we have is bitcoin and I resonate with what Vineet said. We've had numerous conversations Vinnie in the past about bitcoin versus a lot of the other cryptos forks of bitcoin bch and I think the utility narrative folks that camp I think called it right, you know, bitcoin not having utility, the entire store of value narrative, which was what was pushed at the time, the transition from, from Gavin Andreessen to the now current core developers happened. They said, no, no, no. Bitcoin is not, is not meant to be used. That's why we slowed down the chain, made sure we couldn't transact on it, created the centralized L2 networks and pushed for ETFs. And now we got what we asked for. Sure you can see the code, sure it's open source, sure it's transparent. But what is the motive and intent behind what the code is supposed to do? And we're feeling it because as a store of value, Bitcoin does not have a competitive advantage over gold, over silver, over many other commodities and assets until it has utility, until it can be used in such a way that it has a competitive advantage, which is being able to transfer value across borders, anyone, to anywhere in the world with no kyc. That's when it has the advantage. Because hell, an ETF of Bitcoin has no advantage over an ETF for gold. Like give me any reason why that is an advantage. So that needs to be the push. I really had big hopes for at least the L2s.
- [34:27]
A
Right?
- [34:27]
H
There's already talk of what you were just mentioning, Brian. Institutional adoption. The technology will revolutionize the traditional financial system. Yes, it can guess what no one and what you said, does Bitcoin apply? Its only hope would have been the. The different L2s, although those create some challenges in user experience, burdens that other chains wouldn't have. So can we get that back into Bitcoin somehow to give it any hope? I. I don't know.
- [34:51]
A
Right.
- [34:51]
H
And so I'm a bit bearish from that point of view because I think we might have already seen our ceiling from a store of value narrative in Bitcoin. And the utility piece is what is, is missing. And so we keep talking about this industry as a whole. Well, you know, Dave, you self stuff. Bitco is not crypto and Bitcoin is not all these different altcoins. Well, guess what? The narrative is around all of the other coins. But that's still a battleground, right? Still a battleground to figure out which of those coins and what the program, what programmability and scalability is necessary. And privacy as well. What privacy features are necessary to make one of those the winner. And Bitcoin's completely not invited to that party. 100% not invited to that party at all. So where does that leave us in this industry right now?
- [35:34]
F
It.
- [35:34]
H
We're still kind of in this like.
- [35:35]
E
Sure.
- [35:35]
H
Now everything is a, is a meme stock or everything is A small, a small, tiny startup waiting us waiting to figure out which one kind of latches and holds and gets adopted. And so I'm kind of personally holding pander to see and look for utility, not for the next dat that then says I'm going to put this in my balance sheet because that it doesn't seem to move the needle at this point.
- [35:58]
A
Yeah, I have many things I could say but Mark, excuse me. I had saw Lou's hand up and then marks.
- [36:04]
G
I just wanted to dive in a little bit about why did you think that bitcoin used to be a better store of value? Did something change in its store of value? Yeah, it had utility seems to have.
- [36:18]
H
I was buying gift cards, Vinnie Startup.
- [36:20]
E
Right.
- [36:21]
H
And so a store of value also means you have to be able to use the value. And so I was buying gift cards on gift left and right. My wife was Whole Foods, you know.
- [36:29]
G
Are people buying stuff with gold?
- [36:31]
H
No, no one's buying stuff with gold. But guess what? They used to. That was the transactional medium for hundreds if not thousands of years. And so it started with utility and at the time that it had utility it also had store of value. So it had that dual purpose.
- [36:46]
G
Have you ever tried carrying $10 million of gold?
- [36:50]
H
It's a royal pain in the ass. But guess what? Most people don't have to carry $10 million of gold.
- [36:54]
F
Right.
- [36:55]
H
So the point is there weren't many options.
- [36:56]
G
Have you ever tried, have you ever tried to carry $100 worth of gold and actually try and get $100 for it? Well you don't get a hundred dollars for it. There's so many advantages. There's a huge advantages to bitcoin. There are digital representation. It's the digital representation of gold and if you eventually replaces, you don't need to transact it.
- [37:21]
H
Look how so what's the volume of physical transactions in gold versus all of the ETFs that people are actually using to be able to find gold?
- [37:28]
G
People don't use gold to buy stuff.
- [37:31]
F
Correct.
- [37:31]
H
And in the same sense that's also the transactional medium by which people use bitcoin is they don't use bitcoin. Sailor owns 3 plus percent of the entire supply and guess what? He doesn't move bitcoin. He just holds it. It doesn't move it.
- [37:45]
G
Just the average gold. The average gold. Gold person who owns gold and invest in gold makes less than one trade a year. So this isn't about transaction, this isn't about. That's what a store of value.
- [38:01]
E
We've moved on from gold. And by the way, gold is a. Gold is a store of value and we've moved on from using it day to day because it's just the size of the population of earth and whatever else. It's now currencies that should be backed by gold. So you can have gold backed dollars, but they're not. But no, no, no. We had that until 1971. We had that. Okay, Correct. We don't have that anymore. But gold still gold is by the way now reverting back to the store value. Central banks another hold more gold than U.S. treasuries. By far. Gold is just eclipsed it in the past six months and no one wants to hold U.S. treasury. So now you have a reserve currency which is the dollar backed by a reserve asset which is gold. You cannot back the US dollar with Bitcoin. Okay? It's not big enough, it's not liquid enough. You cannot get there.
- [38:47]
A
Right.
- [38:47]
E
And it's too volatile, clearly. But it is being backed by gold. And you know, honestly, like Lou, it's.
- [38:53]
G
It'S not, it's not backed by gold. Our debt isn't backed by gold.
- [38:57]
E
Our debt isn't backed by gold yet. Right. But it used to be and it will be in the future.
- [39:04]
G
How is it going to be? By what are we going to issue more debt to buy gold?
- [39:08]
E
Gold. Gold is going to reprice to 20000 so it meets M0 money supply. Supply pre1971. That's what's happening with gold right now. That is what's happening in the macro sense. Gold is going to go up 4x from here in the next five to six to seven years. Okay. And then we're going to start backing the M0 money supply with gold effectively.
- [39:25]
A
Hey Vinnie, what, what happens if, if the golden Fort Knox really isn't there since we haven't got.
- [39:30]
E
That is a concern. There's two concerns. One is China's claim.
- [39:34]
A
China and India have most of the world's gold.
- [39:36]
E
So, so that is, that is a concern.
- [39:38]
A
World's gonna react because it's almost certainly true.
- [39:41]
E
Yeah, we're gonna have mass. If that is true, we are going to have massive inflation coming in because we are going to have to print our way out of the situation and the dollar is going to become worthless.
- [39:51]
A
Well, okay. And so what?
- [39:53]
E
But then gold, but then gold. Gold picks it up.
- [39:55]
A
Gold. I, I, I, I just, I just toss that out there because it's really interesting. I also will make one observation before I Go to Mark. And that is every time we start getting toward capitulation bottoms in bitcoin, this is the exact conversation that starts to resonate. And it's really simple. And so I've said this one thing all the time and I've been saying it for eight years. Eight years. Yeah, I guess weirdly, it's incredible, but it's eight full years that bitcoin trades like an option on the potential for it to be adopted as digital gold and beyond. Full stop digital.
- [40:30]
E
It's a false narrative. Paul and I have been telling you guys this for like eight years now. It's a false narrative.
- [40:40]
A
Options trade with incredible volatility with exactly like this. Look, when you see, you know, the head of Blackrock talking about bitcoin as the potential to be, you know, 700, 000 or whatever the hell his number was before gold rallied. What you're basically these guys, these Wall.
- [40:55]
E
Street guys are idiots. They don't get the tech. They have no understanding what the tech isn't.
- [41:00]
A
But the point is that the tech doesn't have a damn thing to do with it in a sense. It has a huge amount to do with it in another sense. And unfortunately, value is what people believe something is. And gold at the end of the day only has value at what it. At these prices because people believe it's money. And, and the Indian people certainly believe it's money. The Chinese believe silver is money and gold is money, you know, et cetera. And there are people who believe gold is money and the world financial system has ignored it for years.
- [41:30]
E
And they don't believe, and they don't believe that bitcoin very long time.
- [41:33]
A
So I totally understand the argument. Right. But the issue is will bitcoin because it has superior monetary qualities and, and we don't need safety or Simon on here to talk about it. That's the question and it is a question. Let's make it very clear. I just find as an observation that this is the exact question that happens every time at bottom. That's all I'll say anyway.
- [41:59]
E
Mark, are you, are you calling, Are you quoting the question?
- [42:03]
F
Hold on, what's the question?
- [42:06]
A
Bottoming process. I'll, I'll get to you in a second, Mark. I just want to answer the question. Okay. I don't want to try to bottom pick. If you try to bottom pick, as Mike said before, you get your head handed to you. Right. I personally think we are far closer to a bottom than we are to a top, and I think that the narratives will change over time and as price moves, I think we saw the prices move and the narrative follow price, and we consistently see prices move and narrow follow price. Now, what you said this morning is really interesting. It said the reason that bitcoin went from the, you know, broke the range of the 80s is because a bunch more OGs said this and dumped. And that's cool, but that's what capitulation looks like. So it. It reinforces my thought process that the acceleration of the distribution of bitcoin from OG hands to boomer hands, for lack of a better word, has accelerated because of the Epstein files. And do I think it makes sense? Well, yeah, in a sense it does, but it's a process that has to happen. And oh, by the way, Saylor doesn't own 3% MicroStrategy. The company does with a incredibly broad base of shareholders holders. And the same thing is true with Blackrock. Blackrock does.
- [43:19]
H
Okay, nuance. Sorry, sailor. MicroStrategy, sorry about that.
- [43:22]
A
Important, because it's broadening the base. You know, people who are invested. Look.
- [43:29]
E
That is. That is patently untrue, and I'll tell you why. Okay, if so, you've got Luke Dash Jr fighting with. With the bitcoin core guys, and they're, you know, he's got his. Not software, whatever else. If there was a fork today, okay? And Sailor said, I'm dumping this, this side or the other side of the fork. He makes that decision, right? Not the shareholders, not the. Whatever else. He has that control.
- [43:57]
A
You're right.
- [43:58]
E
Especially what's happening right now with this whole bitcoin core, you know, battle. If they. And, and by the way, Luke's trying to put a fork out. He's trying to do a soft fork or whatever it is. If, If Sailor chooses one side or the other, he gets to choose because he has enough coins to basically dump the side of the market he doesn't want to win, and he effectively controls Bitcoin. Like I'm saying this honestly, openly. If anyone wants to contest it, I'm happy to discuss it. But, like, this is the truth of the matter right now with the concentration risk on Michael Saylor. That.
- [44:28]
A
That is true. It is.
- [44:29]
D
I think we all understand that selling is definitely not in his favor. So.
- [44:35]
A
Exactly what I was going say to say it's that, you know, he. He may be a zealot or whatever, but he's not an idiot. And if.
- [44:43]
E
No, no, no. What do you mean? Like if there's a 50, 50 split in the consensus and you have to. He has to choose one side or other. I'm not saying which side is.
- [44:50]
A
He has to choose. He could, he could hold both in his case. He doesn't have to choose a damn thing. He could hold both.
- [44:57]
E
He could. But you know.
- [45:01]
A
If he, if he.
- [45:02]
E
Decided to exercise and say, look, I, I, I don't want to go this direction. He can choose which way it goes. You're right. He could say, I'm not going to choose. He could say that. But the point is he has the power. He has the power to choose. He has the power to choose. Which is not easy, which is not decentralization. This is not.
- [45:20]
D
Even if he chooses people like me, people like you, people like Dave and everybody else calls him on his bluff because he really can't sell. That's the point.
- [45:28]
E
How do you, how do you, do you guys appreciate.
- [45:30]
H
You absolutely can sell.
- [45:31]
E
You actually absolutely can sell. What are you talking about?
- [45:33]
H
You could absolutely sell one side of the coin. There's no. He could, if he chooses one path, he could sell one side of the coin. Absolutely.
- [45:39]
D
No. He's. His promise yields. Look at the products. 50% plus of his products offer yield on Bitcoin.
- [45:46]
C
No.
- [45:48]
E
You'Re missing the point here. Like the hash power will go to the side that he's not selling on because that side will maintain its price. This is like Bitcoin 101.
- [46:00]
A
That is true. But you're, you're, you're making the statement, which I think is completely false, that he would lead that charge the most.
- [46:06]
E
No, I'm making the statement that he has the power to do it, which means we're not decentralized enough while he has a concentration of Bitcoin as much as he does. And, and I'm saying that you, you saying that he has shareholders and therefore bitcoin ownership is decentralized may be true, but the power of which for which it goes under is in his hands. No one else's. He has voting control.
- [46:28]
A
It'll be actually very interesting. Both BlackRock is, is a similar thing, but in Sailor's case it's very specific. So selling a, a, a, an actual fork is probably. And, and it's too bad I don't see any of our securities lawyers up here. But I would be really interested to know what the securities are. Is that something that would need a proxy vote? Is that something that would need to be go to the board of directors and the shareholders of MicroStrategy. And my suspicion is they're going to say yes, because otherwise there'll be a shareholder Lawsuit.
- [46:57]
E
Not, not even for. Happen quickly within 24 hours, 48 hours.
- [47:01]
A
Something within 24 hours. That would be malfeasance. I mean, if you're a public company, you own an asset as backing your public company, selling it without regard to market impact. And what it does is literally the kind of thing that causes shareholder lawsuits and causes you to lose.
- [47:17]
E
I'd love a lawyer. I'd be able to explain this much.
- [47:20]
H
There's no precedent for this, Dave. There's no precedent for a split. What's. What stock suddenly splits with equal amounts into another type of stock with its own. Its own network.
- [47:29]
F
Right.
- [47:29]
H
You can't do that. There's no precedent for this. No, that's a stock split where it's the same asset, but to have an exact.
- [47:35]
A
It's called a spin off. And.
- [47:37]
H
Right. No, the question is, but the spin off is clearly the other stock. That's the difference. In crypto, there is no clear actual definition of what is the original asset. Like, what is actual btc. There's a legal. There's a legal definition of a spin off, but there is no legal. But there is no legal definition of what is actually BTC. In the case of a fork, that is up to the entire community to decide. So in Michael Saylor's case, he can say, no, no, I didn't sell the asset that I was holding. I was selling this other thing that just suddenly showed up out of nowhere.
- [48:08]
A
You can't, don't, don't attribute actions that are literally impossible. Securities laws in the United States are very, very clear. No, very clear. You can't.
- [48:18]
H
Okay, define this. What is this?
- [48:20]
A
There are many cases, many cases where one company owns a piece of another company or a large piece of another company. And when that happens, if there's ever a corporate action on this, on the company they own, they literally end up having to have a board vote and having a proxy fight with shareholders to determine what their action is, is. And so if there were going to be a situation, because there's, there's an entire class of, of piranhas out there called, you know, class action attorneys. And if you run a public company, you know this, you know that you can't take actions that are definitive, that are potentially catastrophic. So believe me when I say to you there is no chance that something. He's going to act quickly and unilaterally on anything like that. He will let the market determine it and then make his decision and put. Probably go to his shareholders to do so. That, that just. It just, that's Just the way it works. Now is that a good thing?
- [49:14]
E
No.
- [49:14]
A
Does it change your argument? Really not that much. Although your argument is much more sensational than it needs to be. But if in fact there is a big debate in bitcoin and Sailor has to weigh in personally. He could weigh in personally, but I guarantee you he's not going to do anything that is absolutely catastrophic for the price of bitcoin or for, for either side, because it doesn't make any sense for him to do.
- [49:35]
G
Do so.
- [49:36]
A
That's just common sense.
- [49:38]
E
Let's assume you're right. Let's assume you're right for one second. Now it goes to a vote and there's a 51% one side, 51% the other side. But the, the, the, the. But the minor majority gets to choose how, you know. No, no, that's exactly it. So now you have a situation where 3% is actually controlled by 1.5%. Right. So like this is not decentralization, guys.
- [50:04]
A
Any way you put is true that although 3% is hardly a control state, but it's black. Well, you're, you're. Look, there's two people.
- [50:12]
E
No, no, but he goes, if he goes to blackrock and basically the same thing happens.
- [50:16]
A
Please suggest. Let me, let me encapsulate your argument. Tell me if I'm right. You're basically saying that while 3% is not a control stake, the blackmail that he could do on the community in order to force his idea in is. Makes it not truly decentralized. Is that essentially what you're saying?
- [50:32]
E
It's not blackmail. He, he's. He's a zealot. He's philosophically aligned one way or another. And if there was a fork and he really believed that the, you know, this version is the best version of bitcoin or the original version and the other one is not. He gets to choose. I, you know, he would tell his shoulders like this. And he can exercise his voting rights as well.
- [50:49]
A
He, he's part of the vote.
- [50:50]
E
He has voting power.
- [50:51]
A
Okay, I hear your point. And yes, I guess to some degree that is true, but it is also true and we've seen it before. I mean, you know, how many people own bitcoin SV anymore, right? You know, and bitcoin cash alive and well, although I don't really understand it.
- [51:07]
E
Well, again, a lot of that stuff is people don't own it because they believed Adam back and now they found it back to Pedo. And now what. That's the basis for my argument. What, what we've been told to believe the past freaking 10 years is a lot of bullshit in my opinion because we just can't trust the people who told us to us.
- [51:25]
A
Can I ask a really stupid question? Just, you know, you're tossing off Adam back as a pedo like with definitively. I mean, you know, it is now I don't know Adam. So this is not whatever. But I do believe in innocent until proven guilty. I also believe that there should be that, that it is, it is beyond insane that there have been no prosecutions. Like none. And by the way, there are multiple states where there's no statute of limitations on child.
- [51:50]
E
I'm just quoting what, I'm just quoting what's trending on Twitter right now. What's trading on Twitter is basically calling Bitcoin Peter Coin.
- [51:56]
A
So I hear you. But that is, but, but that's not the same thing as saying, you know, there's a difference between saying that a bunch of people on Twitter, much of which is anonymous trolls are saying something and that something is true in a court of law and something is true that the guy actually did it. I mean honestly.
- [52:16]
E
They were taking money. They were taking money. Okay, doesn't matter. They were taking money from, from Jeffrey Epstein for the, for, for MIT Joo and, and, and Blockstream. They were taking money from Jeffrey Epstein and knowing what he was up to because they went to the island. Like, I mean look, you can argue, you can innocent, you can. Innocent or proven guilty, but in the, in the court of public opinion. In the court of public opinion.
- [52:37]
A
Money.
- [52:38]
E
How many found in the court of public opinion. This is not going down. I mean, dude, it's way worse than that. I've heard before this keeping came out, I heard tons of stories about what happens at Blockstream offices in Palo Alto.
- [52:48]
A
I used to live there.
- [52:49]
E
Like, this is not. This is not surprising.
- [52:50]
A
Sure, I've seen it in so many different places.
- [52:53]
E
Exactly. Exactly. So this is not. But it's one thing to have. It's one thing to have these crazy drugged up parties in Palo Alto offices. It's another thing to be associated with pedo petos on, on an island. Okay. And being. And like the same reason. By the way, you know why we have small blocks? Because Luke Dash Jr. Believes that Catholics are going to overpopulate the earth to 50 billion people by the year 2050. He posted the religious text, I've got all the screenshots on X. And he said we can't scale bitcoin because we can't handle 50 billion people on Earth because Catholics are going to procreate faster than us. Evens who use condoms and contraceptions. Like, if you want the entire thread, I'll show it to you, I'll screenshot it. I've got it. It may still be up on X. This is the ideological battle we're having right now with the core developers. It's bullshit, man.
- [53:36]
A
I believe you. And believe me, I've seen multiple crap. I mean, all I'm trying to say is if you start using that sort of acid test, I'm not sure there's an investment that you could possibly own now. It might very well be that with the fourth turning, everything should go to zero. We should burn it all down and start again. But that's essentially what you're saying.
- [53:55]
E
Yeah, I'm just saying. I'm just saying we should question all our previous beliefs that we were told by people we should not be trusting.
- [54:02]
A
That's all. Okay, Mark, you want to take us home?
- [54:06]
F
Totally. I think you should absolutely go to test all your priors. Ben, I absolutely agree with you. And as far as Adam back, I think you have to start with everything's true. Just take that up. Everything's true. He. The assertions that he's a pedophile are there, that he went to the island, he took money, and as a bitcoin investor, if that's something you've relied on, I would say that. That you had a weak thesis. And you know, we're not even talking about, you know, Jack Dorsey, who I. When in. In. In my life, when I walk in the room and the first guy comes up to me and tells me his story, and the loudest. To me, it's like the babbling brook. I listen to them the least. The person over the last couple years who's been the quietest and doing payments like what I think, was it Paul talking about that is Jack Dorsey. So do I rely on Jack Dorsey? No. But I certainly don't rely on one of the loudest guys in the room who was clearly blockstream and Adam back quietly loud in his manner. I don't think this is an existential. I do think that. Back to testing your priors. When we have something like this come unexpected, not on anyone's fucking bingo card. It is awful. It is not without a blemish. We're taking it. It may last a while, but I don't believe it's an existential because we don't have the ability to process this information properly. Back to Kahneman, TVansky and system one, system two. We are living in system one right now. We got to back up and this call is doing a good job of trying to pull us back in. And then you did lay out some good system 2 thinking on that as you did Dave. So what do I think? I think you have to assume Adam is, is, is guilty for your thesis. Not for him, not publicly stating it, but just for your thesis and proceed accordingly. I loved Cat Stevens growing up. The fact that he wanted to put a fatwa on, I, I forget the guy, the, the, the author. I still listen to Cat Stevens. I like his work. The fact that Adam back, you know, was instrumental in the development of the process that led to it. Whether he was satoshi or not, I don't care. I look at the code, I look at the foibles they've all mentioned and I say what's my best bet? As the world is burning, as we.
- [56:34]
A
Are approaching fourth turning show, I will.
- [56:36]
E
Say I agree with you 100%. I think just remember that the code and the philosophy around the code are two different things. Things anyone could look at the code but like we, we may have been misled by with the philosophy around it, digital gold, narrative, whatever you want to call it. And, and I'm actually willing to just say, you know what, I went from Craig Wright in Satoshi being 0% to maybe 1%, 2%, whatever in the past weekend because I just don't trust anything they've said and I want to reevaluate everything. And this, this also applies to Gavin and recent like we were told Gavin, you know, Gavin was the guy who, you know, he lied about everything. And now I'd rather trust Gavin than Adam. And they took his keys away and he said that Craig Wright was Satoshi and they took his keys away. Because of that, I'm willing to reevaluate everything at this point. I don't want to believe anything has come out of the core camp since, since basically I've been in bitcoin.
- [57:27]
F
Yep. I. It is tough. Ben, what I'm going to go on. You're going from 0 to 4%. I'm going back to what I think going to markets for a second and about probabilities. There's so much money in the system that Polymarket had. Jesus is coming by the end of the week at a $600,000. So there's 600. 600 grand that people said you know what, this is the best use of my capital right now. So I don't think markers are pricing anything right now. I think that we are in such a state of disarray. We are in a new global order. I don't use that word lightly. We're away from Breton trade. Started it last year with the tariffs. We're going in, everything's up in the air. There's information coming fast and hard. So you know what McGlone said early about trading things and Dave, what you've been talking about? Totally assess things. Guys, really do your fucking homework because there are going to be more curveballs and this adding back thing is awful, unknown, but again, I don't think existential, but does invite a new assessment for everybody on what they're doing.
- [58:37]
A
So Gary, I saw you put your hand up. You got, you got final thoughts here.
- [58:40]
J
I did. I'd like to just end with a positive thought because I want to vomit over this discussion.
- [58:45]
E
Thank you.
- [58:46]
J
I, I was caught. Yes, I think it will be a positive comment. I was contacted by Coinbase again today. Had to move some collateral over quite a bit actually. But that's not what bothered me. I, I, I asked the question, I said, hey, of the people you're servicing, you're making these phone calls to a lot of people. How many of those people are moving collateral versus cashing out? And the answer, the response was 10%. Less than 10% of the ultra high net worth players are cashing out. So 90 of their ultra high, well, net worth players are posting collateral. They're not cashing out bitcoin on this drawdown. I think that's positive.
- [59:35]
D
Well, now you know why they're rich. Because they don't listen to the news and they're not on Twitter and so they remain themselves rich, keep themselves rich.
- [59:44]
J
By the way, just on, on that this come particular conversation, like we're comparing a problem here that we think might be a problem with. Look, this is infested every industry on the planet so like bitcoin's not going to take a big hit because of this, because of Adam back. Adam Back's not important in this thing. If he is, then you guys really miss sold the story to me.
- [60:10]
E
I think, I think, I think you should check that, check your notes on that one.
- [60:14]
A
I mean, Gary, the one thing that I will say what Vinnie said is extremely important because forget the now.
- [60:19]
D
Your mic is off far. Dave, I think you, you're in the same spot where Vinnie was. Okay. While Dave, can you hear me now? Sorry, you're here.
- [60:33]
A
My hand, when I adjusted the mic, hit the little mute button and I didn't see it. Vinnie said something extremely important. Gary Now, I take it far differently than he takes it, but if it is true, and I believe him, that a bunch. A lot of OGs said this and they're dumping again, and they did. So that explains very quickly why bitcoin is the worst performing asset today. It also tells you that, you know, you can't.
- [60:59]
F
Silver.
- [60:59]
J
Silver's had a drawdown twice as bad as bitcoin.
- [61:02]
A
Okay, well, Silver, yeah, but the whole.
- [61:04]
J
Market'S getting up, man.
- [61:07]
A
Yeah. I mean, like, to me, if we.
- [61:08]
J
Want to talk about Epstein's going to be in every board.
- [61:11]
A
Everything else is. And you know what happened in Silver. Right. I. I said I didn't want to talk about it, but. But we can't make the comparison. Literally. The United States called a meeting yesterday. Effectively could have been tight. It was cut out strategic minerals. It was how the do we get the price of silver down? That was the meeting. And so this is. They're shooting their cannon and they're still in the mid-70s. To me, the trader in me says, yeah, this is. This is going to be fun. Who's going to win Asia or the United States on silver? And I think that the answer is going to be Asia. But that's besides the point in the ME in the short run, they're going to be able to keep pushing it down to this level and maybe a little below, but not much, but that's a different story. No, but Vinnie said is really important. Garrett, if there's been a lot of capitulation among OGs accelerating last year's pace, that tells you how that the transition is accelerating. The sole question, and it always has been, is will it gain critical mass? And to get critical mass, you need more holders. It's as simple as that. Does that not make sense, Gary? Because that's how I took it. Now, Adam may very well be very important, and honestly, the entire, you know, future direction of bitcoin is probably going to move. But we've also heard that Sailor is really important. Even though he. He's not mining it. He's not according to developer. So, you know. Yeah, the entire story has to be relooked at and people will look at it. Right. You there, Gary? Did I lose everyone?
- [62:43]
J
Yeah, no, I'm here. I mean, you still have people that. That you have new money coming into this market. That's what we need. The crypto bros are selling bitcoin. This, let's be clear. But the whole market's getting.
- [62:53]
E
And it's because I believe they're believing false narratives that need to Be evaluated. That's all. That's all I'm going to say.
- [63:00]
J
I don't think this industry is any different ethics wise than any other industry I've ever been in. Like, having this purity thing is not a cool thing. You only lose.
- [63:11]
A
Exactly. I think that, I think that is kind of the point. I mean, the point is to become a mainstream financial asset requires a different set of people involved. Any much broader set of people. People anyway.
- [63:26]
E
Agreed.
- [63:26]
J
And furthermore, this really shows the, the deficiencies that come along with decentralization.
- [63:34]
A
Well, centralization makes one of the great broadly decentralized and Vinnie's points fairly is, is not as decentralized as we would like it to be. Right? Yeah. Okay.
- [63:45]
E
It's not about being purist. It's. It's not about that. It's. I'm not trying to be like squeaky keen. I mean I was in bitcoin after Silk Road Road. I, I knew the risk. People told me not to invest. It was crazy, bad, dirty money. This is even, this is worse than that. That's my point. Because now instead of changing like it's, it's a narrative issue. We basically, the OGs are getting out and you're trying to get new people who don't understand the nuances to get in and put their money in. It's, it's a concern.
- [64:10]
A
Look, look, I think, I think that's fair and I think this has been a great conversation. We are getting the hook, however, so we're gonna, we're gonna wrap up.
- [64:20]
E
See you guys.
- [64:21]
A
Thanks.
- [64:22]
D
Well, OG has to be defined because at Satoshi Roundtable this was definitely not the, the sentiment. So OGs have to be defined as per Gary Coinbase is not.
- [64:32]
B
That was before.
- [64:33]
A
That was.
- [64:34]
E
Roundtable was before the Epstein files came out. Just be clear.
- [64:38]
D
I mean we are still here in Dubai, like most of us are around. But anyways, let's let David rap and let's take it on Twitter.
- [64:45]
A
I think, I think there's a lot here. And speaking of Twitter, could those of you, I would say, follow all the speakers up here and in fact all the speakers, if you could follow this account of mine because it looks like X isn't going to get me my old account back. I would appreciate it. As Scott would say, none of us and people in the audience know none of us are compensated for this. This is stuff we do and these sorts of conversations. I think, I think today is very valuable. Everybody who wants to do the research and, and the quote, work on bitcoin should listen to what Vinnie is saying and evaluate it. I think it's absolutely valuable and you should understand what the hell you're vot what what you are investing in. It's not only about number go up people. That's all I'll say. So with that, we'll see what what kind of carnage we we're looking at tomorrow. Personally, I suspect we're going to get a little bit of a bounce here, but, you know, we'll see. And that's the way it works. Thank you all.
- [65:38]
E
Thanks guys. Bye.
- [65:39]
D
Good night.