Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets
Episode: BTC Back to $79K After Fake News on Tariffs | Crypto Town Hall
Host: Scott Melker
Release Date: April 8, 2025

Introduction and Overview

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker engages in an in-depth discussion with Matt Hogan and other experts to dissect recent market movements, particularly Bitcoin's surge back to $79,000 following misleading news about U.S. tariffs. The conversation delves into the interplay between government policies, bond market dynamics, and their collective impact on the cryptocurrency landscape.

U.S. Tariffs Fake News and Market Response

Scott Melker opens the discussion by referencing a recent event where false information about the suspension of U.S. tariffs caused significant volatility in the stock market. He notes, “Yesterday when there was an announcement that tariffs were going to be basically suspended for 90 days except for China. And we saw the S&P… swing 10% in under 10 minutes” (00:14). This sudden spike underscores the market's sensitivity to policy news, highlighting the eagerness of investors to trade on any positive developments.

U.S. 10-Year Yields and Bond Market Dynamics

The conversation quickly pivots to the behavior of U.S. 10-year yields, which have been unusually high, defying expectations despite Federal Reserve efforts to lower them. Matt Hogan comments, “There is a higher run rate of inflation in the world today than there was in the past. And I, I don't think it's going to be possible to get these yields down substantially barring a global economic collapse” (02:36). This persistence in high yields raises concerns about the bond market's outlook and the government's ability to manage its debt.

Austin adds, “US Yield curve dynamics are starting to look like those we traditionally associate with emerging markets” (04:48). He emphasizes that without significant deficit reductions, yields are unlikely to decrease, further complicating economic stability.

Joe counters the inflation narrative, arguing that current market indicators, such as swap rates, do not support a high-inflation scenario. He states, “Just look at the swaps year, five years, they're the lowest since 2022” (06:43), suggesting that inflation may not be the primary driver behind the yield movements.

Government Policy on Tariffs and Fiscal Spending

The discussion explores the administration's strategic use of tariffs as a tool for economic policy. Dave highlights the dual objectives, stating, “The long term policy of re-industrializing America... shifting from consumers and companies, basically doing things quickly by assembling parts from abroad to domestic production is going to be a lowering of GDP in order to raise GDP in the end” (12:58). This approach aims to incentivize domestic manufacturing but risks short-term economic pain.

Matt questions the coherence of the administration's messaging, noting the conflicting signals regarding tariff negotiations and rate adjustments. He observes, “Besson's going to negotiate with Japan. We need to get no tariffs” (13:30), pointing out the confusion surrounding policy intentions.

Impact on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

The high yields and fiscal policies have significant implications for Bitcoin. Matt projects a positive outlook for Bitcoin, stating, “Eventually money printing leads to Bitcoin up” (02:36). As the government grapples with high yields, the resulting fiscal strategies could bolster Bitcoin's attractiveness as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

Gareth contributes insights from the Paris Blockchain Week, mentioning conversations with industry experts like Adam Back, who believes the current market downturn is an accumulation phase for Bitcoin enthusiasts. He shares, “Adam was basically saying that he's fairly confident that sometime in 2026... we're going to have a very much prolonged bull run from here” (28:01).

Noah echoes a bullish sentiment on Bitcoin, emphasizing its resilience compared to other cryptocurrencies. He remarks, “bitcoin has become the main thing again” (40:54), highlighting Bitcoin's dominance and its role as a stable asset amidst market volatility.

Bitcoin Mining and Hash Rate Analysis

The episode delves into the state of Bitcoin mining, with Dave noting a significant increase in the Bitcoin hash rate: “the bitcoin hash rate has spiked basically 20% over the last month or so to a new all time high” (31:52). Gareth discusses the challenges posed by new tariffs on mining equipment, which could increase costs and impact profitability. He speculates on geopolitical maneuvers, such as national accumulation of hash rate, though acknowledges limited discussions on this at the conference.

Matt reinforces the bullish outlook on mining investments, stating, “there's literally no road which doesn't have continued monetary printing” (16:47), suggesting that sustained investment in mining infrastructure indicates confidence in Bitcoin's future.

Altcoins vs. Bitcoin Performance

Scott prompts a discussion on the disparity between Bitcoin and altcoin performance. Noah critiques the utility of most altcoins, asserting, “everything else is getting there… the majority of the stuff out there right now does nothing” (46:10). He contrasts this with Bitcoin’s clear market fit and stability, positioning it as the primary cryptocurrency with real utility compared to speculative or “meme” coins.

Dave concurs, highlighting that the market prefers assets with tangible value and utility. He notes, “Bitcoin and stablecoins have found product market fit and they're actually making a difference out there” (43:30), reinforcing Bitcoin's superior position in the crypto ecosystem.

Conference Insights from Paris Blockchain Week

Gareth shares his observations from Paris Blockchain Week, describing a lively and optimistic atmosphere despite recent market downturns. He emphasizes ongoing innovation and the strengthening position of Bitcoin within the industry. Gareth mentions plans to attend upcoming events like Bitcoin 2025 and Token 2049, underscoring the continuous momentum in the blockchain space.

Scott remarks on the positive sentiment, stating, “people are genuinely still feeling very bullish” (38:03), reflecting the industry's resilience and forward-looking attitude.

Closing Thoughts

As the episode concludes, panelists express cautious optimism about Bitcoin's trajectory amidst economic uncertainties. Scott Melker encourages listeners to stay informed and engaged with the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors shaping Bitcoin's future.

Matt summarizes the key takeaway: “the overwhelming takeaway from the last few days is...” (16:47), indicating that continued fiscal challenges will likely drive Bitcoin's value upward unless faced with an economic collapse.

Noah and other panelists reiterate the importance of focusing on Bitcoin’s fundamentals and recognizing the broader trends influencing the crypto market. The episode wraps up with plans for future discussions and events, promising continued exploration of Bitcoin and its evolving role in the financial landscape.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker (00:14): “Yesterday when there was an announcement that tariffs were going to be basically suspended for 90 days except for China… swing 10% in under 10 minutes.”

• Matt Hogan (02:36): “I don't think it's going to be possible to get these yields down substantially barring a global economic collapse.”

• Austin (04:48): “US Yield curve dynamics are starting to look like those we traditionally associate with emerging markets.”

• Noah (46:10): “Everything else is getting there… the majority of the stuff out there right now does nothing.”

• Gareth (28:01): “Adam was basically saying that he's fairly confident that sometime in 2026... we're going to have a very much prolonged bull run from here.”

• Dave (12:58): “This short term pain goes both ways.”

Conclusion

This episode of The Wolf Of All Streets offers a comprehensive analysis of recent economic developments and their implications for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Through expert insights and thoughtful discussions, Scott Melker and his guests provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the current financial landscape and Bitcoin's potential trajectory amidst global economic shifts.