← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
Scott
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Crypto Town Hall. 10:15am Eastern Standard Time. Every single weekday here on X, we once again have bitcoin showing relative strength to other markets, chopping effectively sideways. While markets drop, NASDAQ down S and P down, Dow down. Gold obviously generally has been up, but bitcoin, many pointing out, has been uncorrelated to all of them and chopping sideways, which to me is an exceptionally good sign in a market like this when there's uncertainty that it's holding up so well. Bitcoin trading right now 84,100 or so. It has dropped a bit from around 85,000 since the market opened, but still, I would say showing some relative strength. Would love to just start there with bitcoin price action. What people are looking at and what they make of this relative strength that it is showing. Raise your hands and jump on in. Go ahead, Jonathan. Sure.
- [01:06]
Jonathan
If you look at on chain analytics like the spent output profit ratio, which measures the coins or tokens of crypto that have been sold, are they selling at a profit or at a loss? And bitcoin is just kind of like you said, it's just sitting there and floating, Whereas Ethereum, since February 24th, all the selling that has occurred has been at a loss. And that is the case for dogecoin, Solana, almost everything across the board. Interestingly, with bitcoin you also have dogecoin, not dogecoin, litecoin and some of the other older layer ones that are still sitting fairly nicely. And also if you looked at it, bitcoin's dominance, it's like at a four year high. And if the month was a close right now, it would be at the highest since think January of 2021. If I'm wrong, I might be wrong there, but it's clear that everything's rotating into bitcoin. Nobody's picking up alts, everything's just kind of floating, sitting.
- [02:19]
Scott
Christian?
- [02:21]
Christian
Yeah. Good morning, guys. Thank you so much for having me. You know, I, I've been kind of pondering on this quite a lot, frequently, like a lot of us are. And this is really what I might consider a really critical moment for bitcoin. If you really zoom out and consider all of the implications. And also a lot of the things that we've already seen foreshadow some of the, the actions this administration has made as well as its reaction to the overall trade market. I mean, the US Trade tensions are far more than tariffs. We all understand that pretty well at this point. And with the way that the Administration is speaking. It, it's almost seems like we're witnessing a deeper shift, a reordering of how, you know, global trade is going to work. Moving forward into some comments that is almost verbatim to what is being communicated. If that's true, and we've already seen some of that foreshadowing with, you know, let's say Brics challenge, challenging the dollar Domina. Could this be the beginning of, you know, cracks that end that post 1930 system where, you know, a reliance on free currency conversion and more importantly on dollar supremacy is, is, is tested. What's fascinating here guys, is that, you know, this, if the foundation is to wobble. Well, I mean this technically is the thesis that Bitcoin was originally, you know, spoken about at the most intimate and developmental levels of bit. I feel for a lot of the guys that have been in finance, in macro and microeconomics as a career, because, you know, to them this is startling. It is something completely different. It is a completely different shift. And for a lot of people there's questions of how this might affect a very parabolic year for bitcoin. So with that being said, you know, I do want to reiterate what a lot of people have been, you know, expressing on these spaces as of recently. Recently, which is the correlation between the trading of the NASDAQ and bitcoin. It's, it's, it's okay. Everything looks to be actually quite good in terms of how we're reacting as an industry to some of these, these, these changes and speculation and a lot of the questions that people have right now. So I, I'm quite content at the moment with, with what we're seeing in, in the market for bitcoin.
- [04:51]
Scott
Yeah, I agree, Dave.
- [04:55]
Dave
Yeah, I think that I was just asking Grok to give me the actual data and it is exactly as I thought, which is Bitcoin's 10 day annualized volatility right now is below the S and P and actually significantly below the nasdaq. That doesn't happen very often and you and I both know that our good friend Mike keeps talking about it as being three times higher. The fact that it's lower over the last 10 days and actually, you know, the, you know, is, is notable. It will be, it will be interesting to see. But what people generally would say is regardless of direction when this sort of thing happens, there's a large move that's going to happen. That large move could be after, you know, another month of this crap. It could be after another eight, you know, seven Months of this crap.
- [05:44]
Austin
But.
- [05:45]
Dave
But a big move is coming. Is that the one thing that you can see, my personal view is that we are continuing to see Bitcoin being purchased by people who look more like me and are my age and in the traditional financial system and being sold by people who were in the crypto ecosystem, which, if I'm right, then in a few years there's gonna be a lot of people saying, how the hell was I this stupid to sell it? And I think that you're seeing a lot of that. I mean, there's more and more stories out about, well, there's so many cryptos, all this other stuff, but I think that's a bigger trend. I think Bitcoin dominance. If we're going to have to start measuring Bitcoin dominance, X Stable coins and X Ethereum at some point, because what's actually happening is Ethereum to say that people are questioning whether or not it's. It's, you know, it should be $200 billion. Is it, is it really the promise of the world computer or is it just losing that? And, you know, it feels like buying Ethereum here is a value trap. That's not to say that it can't recover, that the new, you know, that the big new change, the PETRA upgrade isn't going to matter. You know, I don't know, I'm not. I don't know how that will actually play out. But it feels like the crypto markets are absolutely in a wait and see mode on everything. But wait and see in the crypto market alone is downward trending, whereas bitcoin being bought by institutions and by tradfi is allowing it to hold in there. And that's why the bitcoin dominance is increasing. So just a general malaise downtrend in crypto, which frankly feels getting close to towards a local bottom. But, you know, bitcoin having made its bottom, is just kind of hanging in here until we get another catalyst, or really more to the point, until people decide to start making allocations and investments. Because it feels like nobody wants to do anything right now, given all the uncertainty on the Mac.
- [07:57]
Lou
Yeah, yeah, I think I agree with the macro viewpoint. I think it was Christian said earlier. I mean, to me, Trump's America first policy is just as simple, a big fuck you to the rest of the world. And he started it by breaking the train deals he already signed. So I think they were purposely signaling that the US can't even be trusted to do a deal and that the US no longer wants to not Only do no longer want to lead, but we don't even want to play anymore. And I think the big result of that, you know, the markets are crashing, but the dollar is, you know, crashing as well. I think it's down like 8% this year. And in my view that is the dream scenario for bitcoin. So yeah, I am as positive I've ever been. And I'll just also just want to quickly say, read David's comments on Ethereum. You know, to me, Aeum is still by very wide margin the best community in all of crypto. And I think community is where the value is.
- [09:04]
Austin
I think that may have been for me. So I'll go here.
- [09:07]
Scott
Go ahead.
- [09:09]
Austin
Yeah, not a problem. So one thing I'll say, I'm very optimistic about Bitcoin prices at these current levels. Right. A lot of other assets in the crypto ecosystem have, if we're being polite, traded somewhat weakly recently. Obviously the global macro backdrop has not been particularly good. And yet Bitcoin, despite having supply coming on every day, is essentially chopping sideways. Right. Which is a sign of in many ways increasing adoption. And if you zoom out and think about the narratives that have led people to buy bitcoin over time, one of them is obviously tech adoption. It's a form of risk asset. There's correlation to the Nasdaq. This is not strictly true, you know, as Dave was pointing out earlier, but it is a reason that some people previously were buying it. And we've seen behavior like that in the past. There's also the whole store value belief, you know, digital gold, is this an asset that essentially because of limited supply, people are going to pile onto. Mike Saylor is probably the one who's articulated that the best. But I sort of got into thinking about Bitcoin due to the influence of some of my friends who are from emerging markets with both legal and monetary regimes that are, I'm going to be polite and say not great. And one thing that I would point out that I think we often under discuss is merely Bitcoin is a hedge against stupidity in your local market. This is a great way to get money out of a local system into a neutral code based system. Back to some of the original cypherpunk principles. And it's been incredibly interesting to me thematically and in terms of why you would be a long term believer in Bitcoin that precisely as governments in the world start fighting more and disregarding like legal norms, let's call it Bitcoin is the one asset that seems to be holding up much better than everything else. So if you're looking at more than just a few day trading windows and medium term to long term drivers of price appreciation, it may be that we're finally seeing a moment where when governments puke all over themselves, Bitcoin will rise to the top as the one call it non governmental asset.
- [11:24]
Jonathan
Just going back to what Dave was talking about with, with Ethereum and bring back on chain analytics. If you look at the market value to realize value which is basically a kind of a way of saying if it's, if it's below zero, this is looking like a really good opportunity to go, to go long or, or that the selling pressure is very limited. It is at the lowest it's been since Terra's collapse in May of 2022. In fact for a lot of altcoins that ratio is at a, an insane multi year low. Back when the fundamentals for crypto were the worst and right now it's the fundamentals are the best.
- [12:12]
Christian
Yeah, I just wanted to speak to not only what Lou has said but Austin and Dave as well because there's a culmination efforted conversation here that really strengthens the position of Bitcoin and the simplicity of it is you know, one to what Austin had, had just spoke on which is it's not necessarily a matter of you know, policy changes or disruptions that would, you know, cause an all out break in, you know, monetary global trade. It's more so an observance from a lot of us that you, that very clearly shows a weakening system altogether. Nothing has to be catastrophic for you know, Bitcoin's thesis to improve. There doesn't need to be a devastating, you know, trade policy that is instigated for, for Bitcoin's thesis to be proved either. But seeing it being shaky it's, it's very clear and Dave pointed to this, pointed this out very well as, as, as, as a model is that Bitcoin and Ethereum find themselves at a pretty decent crossroads almost every single time now to, to kind of go against the wind here just a little bit. That doesn't necessarily mean that you know, bottom of the chain, you know, idea phase innovation isn't still happening. There still is interest within, within web3. Now the problem with this though is we've already come off the back of a troublesome administration that had you know, policies and also stances on cryptocurrency as a whole that made people a little skeptical about entering into the market into the first place. You know Dave, you Said I think it was you apologies if I misquote you, my friend and feel, feel free to correct me if I do. But I believe in a previous space, you know, you, you worded it pretty well in, in a stance that said, I think with four more years of Warren and Gary Gensler, you know, things would have been potentially not catastrophic, but they wouldn't be in a, going in a, at least a better direction. And you know, just as a quick reminder too, you know, I understand that these are, you know, paramount times where we're constantly looking at, you know, the, the tabloids and seeing what opinions are getting weighted the, the highest in, in terms of credibility. But you know, I just don't see would have been drastically different if, you know, an administration would have been different. I think that realistically speaking, you know, some of these things might have been due. Having a shake up in, in the trade market might have been due. Now to argue whether it is correct or not is really not important at this time. I think what most individuals who are analyzing Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a whole should be really paying attention to is the narrat of how it is going to affect our market. And if we are to assume that the thesis of Bitcoin is empowered by troubling economical times or even trade policy, whatever that affects the markets, then it's not really a horrible thing. But it is uncharted territory.
- [15:41]
Sasha
Scott, real quick, I keep saying this is that we've never lived in a time with a positive or net positive regulatory environment and a positive macro environment for Bitcoin. We haven't seen that yet, right? And here we are sitting at 84k and I think what people are seeing right now is when we have had some less correlated or de correlated days between the NASDAQ and Bitcoin. And it's exciting. It's also scary, right? Like what does that mean for the world? What does that mean for the world that we live in if suddenly it is decorrelated but the United States is 26% of the share of the world GDP. Yeah, we're a big consumer, but people might start seeing that, the cracks there, right? And so where would you go? You have to go to, you have to go to Bitcoin. And yes, gold right now is at all time highs and people are saying oh you know, it's still the, you know, flight to quality, flight to safety, whatever you want to call it. Companies aren't issuing SARs and bonds and working out like you know, financial engineering deals to Go and buy gold, right? Like, look at what meta planet, you know, they're trying to have a huge stack. They just issued another $10 million bond, right. And if you know how these things work, evo who, who bought the bond, they literally have no downside. It's a, it's a call option with only upside for them.
- [17:03]
Dave
Right.
- [17:03]
Sasha
They get their $10 million back, no matter what, in six months or they have the call option that they can, they can get the, you know, what's effectively like a restricted stock unit if you're an employee. It's kind of, that's how it works. But it's, it's unbelievable. You know, where we're at. I still am at times. I'm still so confused. We're sitting at only 84k, but it's just so much uncertainty, I think in the market. There's still a big percentage of the market that, you know, is, is seeing this as the, you know, the big stack, big tech stock correlation to, you know, qqq. And so it's just a matter of time before it all breaks and this thing, the top just rips off and it's a really exciting time.
- [17:42]
Danish
Yeah.
- [17:42]
Dave
I just want to clarify. My points on Warren Gensler were that bitcoin would eventually emerge, but all the businesses that are being built in the US around both bitcoin as well as in a myriad of crypto projects were going to die. And so bitcoin's torch would have been carried outside of the United States were we to have four more years of that ridiculousness. But we don't, so we don't really have to worry about it.
- [18:15]
Scott
Lots of thumbs up. Alex, you had your hand up. Go ahead.
- [18:19]
Alex
Hey, buddy. So when it comes to the global market uncertainty, since that's the topic of the day, I am actually not concerned at all by the trade wars. And I posted it on my X and I looked at some of the historical data and by the way, if everyone wants to get a really good view of what truly is happening in China, do not believe the Western media. It's really just best to contact your friends in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and all the manufacturing areas. And that is exactly what I did, Scott, because the Western media truly doesn't have the real picture what's going on locally. And a lot of my friends who are very, very successful who have been investing for a very long time in risky assets like stocks and not really into crypto are saying that this time around, the whole trade war between the United States and China is very different from the one that triggered in Q1 2018. And all of them are extremely, extremely concerned. And you guys can see that in the price of gold. I think Arthur Ace posted the other day that China was pushing up the price of gold. And I also think that China is helping the bitcoin levels at 84k. What we're seeing right now, obviously they cannot invest directly from China, but they go through Hong Kong, they go through brokers in Singapore, et cetera, et cetera. So I'm not concerned about the trade wars. I do think this is going to do a lot of damage to China, including the gdp. I think a lot of businesses will go bust and it's a lot worse than they think it is. And due to ego and pride, unfortunately, they're going to keep retaliating and I do not think they're going to come to the negotiation table. That being said, if you look at the data from the previous trade war between the US and and China, which is not too far ago, right? We're talking about less than, than half a decade. Well, in that sense you can see that from the day the trade wars started, which crashed all stock markets, which crashed also bitcoin, which was already crashing, so made it even worse, it only lasted four months because once again, you know, financial markets are always ahead of business or economic cycles because people invest based on the sentiment of the future. So to me, Scott, the whole trade wars thing is more noise than anything else. However, my real concern here, guys, is Jaron Powell and the way he's reacting to Fed interest rates. Because when you look at the metrics and when the Fed actually lowered interest rates in 2024, they lowered the rates in times that are quite uncertain relative to how obvious it is to lower the rates. Now inflation is at 2.4%. As you guys know, this is a perfect and one of the most, if not the most important indicator, macro indicator for the Fed to lower the interest rates. Employment amongst the top five indicators at what the Fed actually looks like. Employment is the only one that is potentially not in the green for lowering interest rates, but an economic slowdown. We can see the GDP has slowed down compared to Q3 and Q4. So there's a slowdown in GDP. There's also turmoil in the financial markets. And if you go down the list of all the most important things that matter to lowering the gdp, such as the global economic conditions, financial market stress, employment, economic slowdown, and low inflation, which I just mentioned, there are absolutely zero reasons for Powell not to lower the Fed Interest rates. To me, it makes absolutely no sense. And my biggest concern here, guys, is because Powell will be in power until November 26th. If they're starting to play a political game with Trump, that is not, that's probably going to delay our altcoin cycle and delay, you know, Bitcoin at 170k, 180k, 200k, whatever price target you have. So once again, China, not a big deal. But I am concerned about the Fed and the way Trump and Powell have a bit of an awkward relationship.
- [22:09]
Scott
If.
- [22:11]
Dave
Yeah, two things. First, it's really, really critical. Something that was, I was on space with David Tiwale and others this morning and it was a consensus among people on that space that if the Fed were to lower interest rates now, in all likelihood the 10 year would go the opposite direction just like it did last time. And understanding that the 10 year is far more important for things like mortgages and refinancing at a period of time when consumers are strapped, says that one of the reasons Powell doesn't want to lower interest rates, because he's no fool, he's far from it, is that it could actually have the exact opposite impact on employment and consumer spending. So, you know, interest rates as a tool, short term interest rates as a tool I think is off the table for that reason until we actually see what's playing out in inflation and consumer substitution, how many supply chains really do get screwed up, where there are going to be shortages, et cetera. I think he's waiting and seeing that. If it turns out that those things don't manifest, then yeah, I think that you might be right. But I think it's really important to understand the difference between the long end of the curve and the short end of the curve. Now, that said, the Fed has other tools at their disposal and I do think there will be liquidity coming into the markets from the other tools. But I would be really surprised. I actually think that the market's wrong. I don't think that they will be cutting rates for exactly that reason until we see what the impacts are on supply chains, et cetera, et cetera.
- [24:01]
Scott
Not sure you can hear.
- [24:03]
Austin
Hey, yeah, no. So I want to pile on with what Dave is saying and point out that as US debt to GDP grows, as we have a period of increase in, call it fiscal dominance, the strength and value of the tools that the Fed has at their disposal with regard to interest rates actually start to decline. So we are not in the same position over time as the US Continues to run a deficit and keeps Piling up debt where exactly, as Dave said, short term interest rate moves here, cutting rates on the short end probably pushes up long rates and causes people to lose confidence in the dollar. It's this strange thing and you see this in a lot of EM markets. So anybody who hasn't traded em, if you want to know what's going on with the dollar, go look at Brazil, you know, is a good example of some curve dynamics that we might be encountering over the next five to ten years. Really what you're asking for is for Congress to get the fiscal house in order. If you want to get inflation under control and you want to start rebalancing, call it the interest rate situation in the United States. And the reality of those things is that realization does not come easily to politicians. They'll do everything they can to fight it. And the people at the Fed are probably aware of this. I would suggest one of the reasons that it's unlikely we see a rate cut is they don't want to exacerbate the problem, which is what the curve is telling you and are trying to eventually create a situation that will enforce some discipline on the US with regard to spending. So I'm with Dave here. I'm not optimistic we're going to see rate cuts. If anything, if inflation picks up, you might even see the reverse.
- [25:45]
Scott
I agree ECB is cutting, but there's a lot of political pressure, which I know Powell won't bow to from Trump obviously here, I mean, flat out saying that he should be fired. Right. But I don't even think that the rate cuts matter that much. Okay, go ahead, Alex.
- [25:59]
Alex
Sorry buddy, I was just going to say the 10 year yields or a bond curve is not a good excuse because the Fed had cut twice where the 10 year treasury bills were higher than the current rate of today. So I don't think that's a metric that validates my theory. And once again I. But on the flip side, I do agree that I'm concerned that the Fed will not cut. But I'm just saying that as of today, if you look at the five metrics, and this is why I disagree with what was just said, all of them look way better than during the three Fed cuts that we had last year. And so those for those reasons, objectively that's a fact and that's why I'm concerned.
- [26:38]
Dave
Scott, Anyone else find it funny that we had an inverted yield curve during the period of time when the economy was objectively doing well, yet everybody else in the world said, oh, inverted yield Curve means there's going to be going to be recession. And today I think every single economist I have heard says we're either in recession or we clearly have one core quarter and it's very unlikely that's going to change. So we'll be in recession by the time we measure the next quarter. And yet yield curve is basically flat. Anyone else find that strange?
- [27:14]
Scott
I do, obviously. Yeah. But what does that mean to you?
- [27:19]
Dave
Well, what it means to me is that people are thinking, you know, that people are losing confidence in the dollar. And so our yield curve, which used to represent confidence in the economy writ large globally, is different. And so that dollar uncertainty is creating a dynamic that's very hard for traditional policy tools to impact, which is why I think they want to be so careful unless things get really spiraled out of control. I mean, certainly if there's a major crash, regardless of what Powell says about no Fed put, yeah, there's probably not a Fed put. If it is, there is a Fed, but it's just a very far out of the money. It's on the wings, as the options guys would say. And you need to understand that, you know, it would require the banking system seizing up. But I think that's why they want to be in a wait and see mode. But I think this is sort of, you know, I am not willing to go so far as to say Bretton woods is collapsing, but certainly if it does, or certainly starts a slow unwind, that is massively bullish for Bitcoin. When people start to figure it out. I mean, we're basically getting flashing buy signals for Bitcoin in terms of the most important metric, which is its acceptance as a store of value. That is the real key, because all this other stuff is noise, really, when you get right down to it.
- [28:49]
Scott
President?
- [28:51]
Christian
Yeah, no, I would say that the confidence in the dollar is the unspoken horror. I think it's something that probably a lot more individuals should have been discussing before such drastic trade policy changes within the administration. With that being said, you know, I did want to kind of add on to the sentiment slightly prior to that, which is that of, you know, how the market is trying to read this. And to an extent, you know, I don't know if we would ever want to see or not want to see, but would we ever get the cuts that, that, you know, the administration is pressuring for? And I think that this is primarily for the reasons that, you know, Dave has shared, as well as some of the reasons that Austin has shared in that the market is reading it as potentially a premature pivot. Yes, the yield curve steepening could compress consumer sentiment even further, which ironically makes risking, you know, a rate cut a risk. Just that, a risk. That type of structural confusion, the divergence between policy tools and real world behavior, as well as just the politics itself, I don't know if we would see any types of cuts given the bigger, I guess, entree on the table at the moment, which is the uncertainty of the dollar. I couldn't agree more with what Dave has signaled here. It's something that I think is kind of an unspoken backbone of some of the conditions that we're seeing. And I also believe that it's also why we're seeing such a relatively steady performance in the bitcoin market as a whole.
- [30:50]
Sasha
Scott, Something we don't talk a lot about on here is just the housing market in general. And I think there has been a housing supply issue in the United States for a long time, right? In existing home sales, they rose 4% month over month, and, you know, they're only down 1.2% year over year. In an environment with 7% mortgage rates, with, you know, the run up that we've had over the last 10 years in the housing market, it's just a complete lockout right now. And there's not a lot of, you know, there's not a lot of movement for new home buyers to come into the market. And it's a, you know, if we, if, if we lower rates and rates are moving down, you know, you still have a lot of these people that have saved money in these money market accounts. It could just, you know, it could move inflation up pretty quickly to have all that money flowing around, right? And I think that's probably something that they're, they're looking at thinking, how do we unlock, you know, all this money market money that's been sitting there, right? And I think that's why you're seeing so much volatility in the stock market, because people don't know where else to put this money, right? They're taking it, they're, you know, potentially just investing it on, on into the stock market or hopefully bitcoin, right? But the housing market's just been locked and the same for a long time. And, you know, builders can't build a lot harder to build now, too, with tariffs and the uncertainty there. So there's, I think that's just kind of like a big nut that needs to crack at some point. And, you know, you're starting to see, you know, more houses on the Market, you're starting to see people, not they, they do not want to lower the price on their house. Right. And they're hoping all cash buyers come in because most people could not afford to live in the current house that they live in today. Based on where rates are.
- [32:33]
Scott
Danish. I know you had a differing perspective.
- [32:37]
Danish
Yeah, thanks guys. So while I understand the sentiment from the crypto industry, the truth is that the rest of the economy can't actually function like this. We can't just suddenly cut rates because we're working off of lagging data. So actually, for the first time in a long time, I actually think Jerome Powell is 100% correct in what he's doing right now. The tariffs, the way that they've been executed has been incredibly chaotic. We don't know what the impact on supply chains is going to be. We don't know. I mean, are we even tariffing China anymore if we're going to allow semiconductors and other products to be made, phones, all the tech industry products to be made in China. So we actually have to see what actually happens. They need to look at the data. The worst thing that we can do right now is cut rates into what seems to be a supply shock. And I think that that's what they're trying to avoid. Remember that Powell doesn't care about the politics of this. I think to try to paint Powell as somebody that is making political moves, I think we're seeing a lot of that on Twitter and from the President. But I actually think that's incredibly shortsighted. What Powell is trying to protect right now is an administration that's trying to devalue the dollar and what his main job right now is to, you know, there is a dual mandate, but there's also a third mandate which is financial stability. And I think he doesn't. If he starts cutting rates into this, I think we see the 10 year as Dave was 100% correct on the 10 year is going to rise. Do you realize what happens if a 10 year continues to rise? We are going to see incredible instability in the financial markets. It doesn't matter what happens to your crypto. What matters is what happens to the entire financial system. And I think that that's really what he is thinking about right now, which is, look, there is a third mandate, the unspoken mandate. Additionally, we don't know what's going to happen with unemployment. Early indications are unemployment is barely affected. So again, unemployment is unshaken. And right now, again, I don't care about the political side. It's not Even important. But border crossings are down significantly compared to the last administration. So there is a supply shock of labor now there is a. Which is affects services. We also have a supply shock of product through this supply chain changes. We need to see what the hell happens. You know, you're going to see a lot of job signs at a bunch of different restaurants all over. At least the Southwest, but even the Southeast. There's going to be significant supply shocks across everything. Expect inflation to roar back if he makes a misstep here. And by the way, he will. No one will ever see him as Volcker. No one will ever see him as that. They'll see him as the transitory inflation guy. And I think he wants to protect not only his legacy, but the legacy of the Fed. I just wanted to give the other point of view, which is we don't know what's going to happen to the supply side of the equation. Additionally, other countries are dumping our dollar, they're dumping our Treasuries. This is a very complex situation. And to just say that he should cut interest rates into it I think is incredibly shortsighted and actually completely wrong. I think for the first time in a long time he's doing the right thing.
- [36:04]
Alex
No, actually you're wrong because the Fed has a dual mandate which is very simple. Their ultimate goal is to keep the economy healthy and to focus on price stability and maximum employment. That's all they have to do. The, the exchange rate of the US dollar and inflation. Nothing to do with what the.
- [36:20]
Danish
Yeah, well, inflation buddy, inflation, price stability. Price stability is important.
- [36:26]
Alex
It's connected to supply buddy, but has nothing to do with the exchange rate of the US dollar. So I'm sorry, but you're 100 inaccurate. There's.
- [36:33]
Danish
I don't know if you know, but like purchasing power actually has to do with the price of the dollar. Like, I don't know what you're talking about.
- [36:40]
Alex
It has nothing to do with purchasing power. It's locally. We're not talking about import exports. We're talking about this price stability locally, which, yes, is connected to the, to the actual.
- [36:49]
Danish
Yeah, because commodities are bought from other countries.
- [36:53]
Alex
Look it up on Grok. Look, look up on Grok. Right now. Does the Fed care about the exchange rate of the dxy? Go look it up right now. I'm telling you.
- [37:01]
Danish
Luckily I don't get my information from AI and so for me, the truth is it's very obvious. You know, you buy commodities from all over the world. The cost of those commodities is going up because we have tariffs now. So therefore it's not. The commentary is hilarious.
- [37:18]
Alex
The energy is going down.
- [37:19]
Danish
So I was talking about commodities, not just all, not just energy, not just oil. So Alex, I don't know you, but my point here is that ultimately to try to act like that, the only thing the Fed should be doing right now is cutting interest rates into a supply shock. It's going to affect supply chains. Right now we are having issues with China across the board. We also are not clear on what the tariff's impact is going to be. None of that has been priced in. They just went live. I think it's incredibly prudent for the Fed to watch and wait and make sure that we're not having negative effects of this incredibly chaotic past few weeks. I don't think it's. And again, I've been incredibly, I mean, Scott can tell you I've been very, very critical of Jerome Powell in the past. I think he hasn't gone far enough actually. But I think this is one of those situations where you have to be data driven because the data is going to be incredibly chaotic.
- [38:19]
Dave
Could I just, I just actually typed it into GROK just to see, because I would have been very unhappy if GROK was that stupid. And they're not. So here's the conclusion. It's a very long explanation and it's actually quite good. You should read it, Alex. But if you type in that exact question into grok, here's the answer. The Federal Reserve cares about the dollar's exchange rate indirectly as it impacts inflation, employment and financial stability, key components of its dual mandate. While the Fed does not target the exchange rate, it monitors its effects and adjust monetary policy rates, for example interest rates, to address undesirable outcomes such as excessive inflation or a weak dollar or job losses from a strong dollar.
- [38:57]
Alex
Yeah, but, but, yeah, but.
- [38:58]
Dave
No, no, no, no.
- [38:59]
Danish
Super awkward, guys.
- [39:01]
Alex
Type it in and read it Reserve website. You'll see that on the Federal Reserve Board website It says the U.S. the Fed does not is not directly related to the U.S. treasury nor the Federal Reserve targets.
- [39:15]
Dave
Okay, Alex, two things. First, they are not directly related to the treasury because for stupidity reasons, when the Fed was created, it was set up as an independent organization that's actually privately owned, which a lot of people don't realize. And the only reason the President and politics gets involved is the President gets to appoint, you know, the Chairman. Frankly, Congress should 100% audit the federal Reserve and then can decide whether that, how bad that policy has been. Audit, budget, et cetera. There's a lot of things going on in the Fed that are just absolutely ludicrous and most bitcoiners would agree with that, but forget that for a second. The second thing is they 100% would care if the dollar pinwheeled out of control. But the problem is the dollar isn't going to pinwheel out of control. And this is where Danish and I, we might disagree on the edges because Europe is even more up than we are and that's a large part of the dxy and China is devaluing as fast as they can. So the dollar may be a shitty currency, but it's the best of all the shitty fiat currencies. And so hard to see the DXY getting down, which I think is what you're trying to say, Alex, which is it's not going to happen, but they do care about it. That's undeniable.
- [40:31]
Scott
Christian, go ahead.
- [40:34]
Christian
Yeah, you know, there's a lot being said here and to be completely fair, both sides raise valid concerns. On one hand, cutting rates into a potential supply shock could stoke, you know, inflationary pressure. I'm going to be honest, that's textbook. That's just my opinion. But if we're unclear on how aggressive new tariffs will be and what pass through effects they have on core goods, then clearly there is a clear cause for alarm on making conscious decisions that are not going to completely fucking dumpster everything. At the same time, the longer the Fed hold rates high into a slowdown, the more convexity risk builds on the long end if the 10 year breaks out while credit markets are already stretched, we're not just talking about the pressure from consumers, we're talking about liquidity cracks at institutional levels. I mean, this is why we're now seeing a lot of risk appetite scatter. Some flows into gold, others is going to go into energy. And increasingly we may even see it into bitcoin. Not because these things are immune, but because it's untethered from policy leather levers. So I just wanted to chime in and say I, you know, I kind of see the, the, the exchange from both sides and there is merit also, you know, to what Alex is saying here in terms of what could be an appropriate reaction. But I just think fundamentally it's a little bit more convoluted than that. And I would have to agree with the doctor here and say that's kind of textbook, maybe not wrong, but not necessarily warranted to be absolute truth.
- [42:20]
Scott
The bigger question then, what does it all mean for Bitcoin? Because this is after all Crypto town hall.
- [42:27]
Christian
I'm going to be honest with you guys, I don't see a realm of possibility where this isn't good for bitcoin. Regardless of what we see the implications become. I think the biggest concern that a lot of people are going to have is that over what is traditionally making up a lot of our markets. However, with that being said, and you know, I, I know this is going to piss off a lot of, you know, guys that, you know, do finance for a living and that work in real estate for a living, but I don't think these types of shifts, policy wise, are going to make much of a difference, at least in a negative sense, on bitcoin as a whole. Again, as a very strong reminder, you know, we have the earliest emails from, you know, the developers of, of this, we have an open thesis and you know, it's hard to look that far back and a lot of people don't remember when crypto was ran by very detailed white papers that tried to make sense of some problem they're solving. I know it's crazy to think we've gone through meme coin markets, we've gone through NFT markets, but, but the original thesis, everything that we're seeing unfold, regardless of which position you take in terms of disagreeance or agreeance with current United States policy, it looks good for bitcoin. That's just my opinion. And I think that the markets, at least with, with correlation to the Nasdaq, I think it shows that most analysts predicted that 2025 was going to be a pretty parallel parabolic year for Bitcoin. And we're probably going to see some sort of reaction when things settle in. I think right now most people are just seeing how it settles in, what is shifting and what is changing. But for me, I think it will make no difference. I think bitcoin is in a great position.
- [44:25]
Scott
Anyone else thoughts on how all of this shakes out for Bitcoin? We obviously know that right now it's sort of trading uncorrelated, which is nice. But if all this pans out in the future, what will it look like?
- [44:37]
Dave
I think we'll look back on this as a how the fuck are we so stupid moment. If you're sitting here thinking that bitcoin is going to continue to trade as a risk asset, I really do believe that this is on a risk adjusted basis. I don't think I've ever been more bullish and I, and I say that before and people think I'm a permeable, I'm not. I just look at it as if the most important thing toward bitcoin getting towards gold's valuation, you know, a 10x from here is acceptance as a store of value. And more and more governments, more and more companies, including our own governments, states, etc. All are starting to see Bitcoin as having that potential. It will at some point become a seller, fulfilling prophecy. So during this period of time when the crypto world is selling because they need to raise funds because of all the pain they're taking on all their very risky assets that they are buying and we are in this sort of uncertain environment, I think take the advantage, take advantage of that. I mean this is the accumulation time. That's all I could say. I know I sound like a broken record Scott. I'm sorry for that. I wish I had something unique to say.
- [45:52]
Scott
Agree. Anybody else particular thoughts here that might differ from what seems to be the consensus? Everything, all, all things good for Bitcoin? Is there anything that you guys view as a meaningful risk from the macro to Bitcoin? Because if inflation, deflation, fed up, fed down is all good for Bitcoin then and seemingly there's nothing to worry about.
- [46:15]
Dave
No, no, no, no, no, no. Come on. We all know that if markets crash, correlations go to one, right? You know, that is absolutely certain and that is a non trivial risk. As Dr. Dhanush so eloquently put it, we have an incredibly uncertain situation. So if your time horizon is weeks, months or even a year, you have to be really careful. If your time horizon is a decade, then go, what do you like to say? Go out, touch grass, stack sats and be done with it. Those are very different scenarios. So we have a lot of traders in our audience and traders have to understand and appreciate how financial markets work. Doesn't mean you don't want to be long biased. It does mean that you need to be careful.
- [47:03]
Christian
Yeah, I agree with Dave again here. I think what, I think what people really, I think what sensible people should be, who they should be listening to are individuals that are kind of sounding the alarm. And it's not necessarily of principle or politics. I think, you know, for me personally, best case scenario for our markets right now is if some sort of deal is going to get made. I would love to see that happen in some sort of normalization to reoccurring. However, I understand the importance of, of, of, of some of the things that I think are being reshaped. For Bitcoin to not receive a negative implication, it requires good news in the sense of not absolutely and horrendously ruining the markets of just about any other industry in the finance sector. And I just don't logistically see that. Well, I don't want to say that I worry that, you know, there could be a really rude awakening in the short term for bitcoin holders if we do not have some sort of sensible policy approach and negotiations that reach some sort of conclusion that doesn't keep people on edge because then we start having some questions answered and the questions that are floating around at the moment, they're not positive. Okay. So, you know, I don't want to pretend here and say that, you know, great, the bitcoin thesis states that, you know, in times of uncertainty, well, we have the hedge against it. Everybody's going to be great if, if things continue on the path they're heading in. Just not a realistic outlook to have. With that being said, you know, the thesis is there to protect us against things like this theoretically, if you believe in that hedge. But in the short term, you know, I think that, you know, having a line drawn in the sand for the United States of America could backfire. It doesn't have to be peaches and rainbows. And I think this is what a lot of people are trying to sound the alarm on and what they have reasonable concern over. So, you know, it's, it's fun to, to, to make the best case scenario approach for bitcoin holders. But Dave's probably spot on again here in, in the, in the remarks that if, if you're looking at this in, in the one to three year range, I'd be sweating bullets because there could theoretically be things that don't correlate to the original thesis. So I just wanted to clarify that because I don't want it to appear to individuals who are, you know, hopping into this space or at least trying to stay up to date with, you know, how the markets and trade wars are affecting bitcoin. To just walk away feeling really good about everything that's happening. There's a lot to be concerned about. And in the long term, the thesis is pretty simple. It's still a hedge. It will always hedge. And I truthfully believe that in the short term you're going to have retail investors react in a negative mannerism if we don't have conclusions to unanswered questions.
- [50:40]
Scott
Sasha, you really haven't had the opportunity to jump in too much today. Any thoughts?
- [50:44]
J
Yeah, I mean, to maybe add a little bit of, you know, positive.
- [50:49]
Scott
View.
- [50:49]
J
Also on the, on the global crypto markets. Right. I think another big, you know, I think we all agree this is very positive for bitcoin and that if there is a market crash, Bitcoin is going to fall with it. As Dave said, correlations go to one. The other thing that's positive to look at as well is that was really not the case a couple years ago is we're seeing everybody focus and go back to New York and to the US OKX just announced that they're opening, they're coming back to the U.S. i think they're opening in headquarters in California and we've seen around the DAS conference there were so many people around. I was in Paris at the Paris blockchain week last week and similarly everybody was looking at New York and going to New York and visiting and talking with institutions, with regulators. So we're seeing both the positive environment for bitcoin and at the same time people flocking back to the US markets and wanting to build on us with access and distribution to the US financial system. And I think that's really exciting.
- [52:07]
Scott
That's a great way to wrap, appreciate all of your guys conversation and opinions on the matter. We're going to see in the future how this all pans out of course, but for now very excited at the way that bitcoin has been holding up in context of everything that's happening.