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Scott Melker
Can bitcoin really be hacked using quantum computing? And is trying worth one bitcoin? We're going to discuss that and everything else that's happening in crypto and the markets and of course, macro today with Iago and Dan from chart. Guys, you guys ready? I am. Let's go.
Dan
Let's go.
Iago
Foreign.
Scott Melker
What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Hit the like button. Do it. Subscribe. Hit the like button. You're all subscribed and you're gonna hit the like button. If you were gonna do it and you're actually not gonna do it because I told you to. We know that because you're free thinking human beings who are bitcoiners and libertarians and you're not going to be goaded by some Dude's face on YouTube to push a stupid button to that end. Iago, I would hit the like button for you. I would.
Iago
Well, thank you very much. If you hit enough times, maybe something nice will happen.
Scott Melker
So you know that, you know that I'm sick of talking so much about tariffs and Trump and all these things when I start doing titles that are, can you really hack bitcoin and win one bitcoin? Because this is the dumbest story I've read in a really long time. So first, not the idea of hacking bitcoin, but here you have it. Quantum Computing Group offers one bitcoin to whoever breaks bitcoin's cryptographic key. Last I checked, if you were able to break Bitcoin's cryptographic key, you could have all of it. Like, why would you do this to win one bitcoin?
Iago
It seems to me like they're offering a hundred dollar prize to whoever manages to smuggle 10 tons of meth into the United States.
Scott Melker
Good job. Hey, if you guys can crack this bank vault and guaranteed not get caught, you can have 20 bucks.
Iago
Yeah.
Scott Melker
For your. Well, I think, I think, I think.
Iago
There'S an interesting story underlying this, which is that, you know, we're seeing amazing progress on all kinds of like, things that were science fiction not that long ago, right? So self driving cars, spaceships, robots, AI. And one of the other big things is quantum computing. Now quantum computing was one of those things like AI, like self driving cars that everyone was promising like since the 50s and we're never getting close. And now they seem to be getting close with all of the others. Is that happening with quantum. That's the big question. Because if you actually Got working quantum computers with today they have like working quantum computers with like three qubits, three logical qubits. Right. So a qubit is like a logical gate. If you could get it to a few hundred, then you can crack basically all of cryptography and with it you could crack Bitcoin. Now we have since developed quantum secure cryptography, but in order to integrate that into Bitcoin you would need a, a hard fork. Not just a fork, a hard fork of Bitcoin. And there's this really, really big question of what do you do with all of the BTC that is in old addresses and is never going to move? It becomes a really, really tough question because you either basically are destroying those coins or you need to do something with those coins. And so one of the biggest sort of long tail risks, right? There's no one knows if this is going to happen anytime soon, but there is potential risk if, if quantum became real, it would be a real problem for Bitcoin.
Scott Melker
Yeah. It would be a problem also for the nuclear codes and the banking system and effectively anything else that's cryptographical protected anywhere on the Internet. Correct?
Iago
Yes, yes. But it's easier to upgrade other systems than it is to upgrade Bitcoin. That is sort of like what makes bitcoin so awesome is that it's permaware. It's, you know, no one can manipulate it, no one can change it. It's like a law of nature. But the, but what happens when sort of like nature itself changes? And actually quantum computing is kind of like nature itself changing. Because what makes quantum computing powerful and useful is really, really science fiction. Right? It's basically today when you run a piece of software, you run it on your computer. What makes quantum computing so powerful is it basically is doing computing in the quantum realm. And you know, the best physical theories today sort of describe that as if you're taking quantum computing power. You're taking computing power from parallel universes and sucking it into yours. So that's like the very laws or our understanding of nature changing and then things get really, really weird. And so with Bitcoin specifically, you know, if I have secrets in documents or on computer systems today, I can upgrade them myself, but no one can just go and upgrade Bitcoin. One of the things that is happening is that the US government and other governments are already starting to mandate that everything needs to be quantum secure in the near future. And the reason is because if you lock up secrets, important data, military secrets, whatever, in cryptography that is secure today. But quantum but you know, 10 years from now or 15 years from now, we get quantum computing and that kind of cryptography, those messages can basically be stored. Right. If someone intercepts those messages today, they can store them in a form of cryptography, in a form of encryption that 15 years from now or 10 years or 8 years or 3 years from now can get, get cracked. So if China and Russia are intercepting US messages today, then three years from now, if they get quantum, they can crack them in three years. And so everyone is rushing to become quantum secure now so that even things which are intercepted now won't be get cracked in the future.
Scott Melker
So this seems like it actually is a legitimate problem to some degree.
Iago
Oh, it's definitely.
Scott Melker
Nobody's going to want to hard fork Bitcoin.
Iago
Well, look, I mean, the thing is we already do have quantum computing, right? This is not just a theoretical right possibility. Like as weird as quantum computing is, it exists. The thing is that it exists so inefficiently and, and the quantum computers that we've built are so unstable that you can't really do anything with them except for prove that theoretically you can, you can do quantum computing. But you know, there's billions of dollars going into this, there's a lot of eyes on it, and we are living in a more and more sci fi world. So yes, it is a real problem.
Scott Melker
Okay, so do you think that we end up hard forking Bitcoin eventually to secure it against something like this? Because obviously, you know, I, I see it and I've kind of laughed it off. But.
Iago
Look, there are some proposals that I've seen floating around which might allow, allow quantum security to be delivered to Bitcoin without a hard fork. I haven't delved deeply enough into those proposals to, to properly understand them. To me that seems also like science fiction. Yeah, I would, I would say that the joke about, you know, quantum computing, sort of like fusion is it's always 10 years away, right? So it's 10 years away 10 years ago, 10 years away, 20 years ago, and it's still 10 years away now. But what you could see is a combination of these technologies playing in weird ways. So we're starting to see all of the big AI research labs investing most of their research effort, or a big chunk of the research effort into building internal models which allow them to build better AI, Right. Which aren't even released to us. So if you see a world in which sort of AI sort of research powered AI becomes much more powerful, that could potentially accelerate a whole bunch of Other things, including Quantum. And at the same time, Microsoft and a bunch of other companies have been trying to at least, you know, get good press. But possibly there's something behind that in claiming that they're getting closer and closer to Quantum. My overall sense is that there's nothing to panic about. There's no sort of very, very near term risk, but longer term, this is almost certainly something that we're going to have to deal with.
Scott Melker
Do you have a idea of timeline? I know we, you joke obviously like Nuclear fission is 10 years away, but I mean, is this a five year problem or a 50 year problem within.
Iago
Bitcoin circles, it's starting to become more, I would say it's maybe one of the top three topics that people are talking about now.
Scott Melker
That's pretty okay. And as a builder on Bitcoin, do you have to consider this at all when obviously allowing building this toolkit for defi and everything to come to Bitcoin, you have to naturally assume that anything that's layer two or built on it becomes naturally slightly less secure than the base layer. So there's even greater concerns, I would imagine.
Iago
Yes and no. So layer twos could potentially be much more secure because they can be built with quantum secure systems. However, this is not just a Bitcoin problem. This is an Ethereum problem in particular and a crypto problem in general. So today, you know, everyone's talking about ZK bridging and ZK roll ups and ZK this and ZK that. Most of the ZK that we're using are snark proofs, you know, a kind of cryptography called snarks. Snarks are not quantum secure. The alternative to snarks is mostly starks, which are much bigger and much more complicated. So this becomes a huge problem very, very quickly. Like if it looks like we're getting close to quantum, everything we know about crypto is insecure. Like this entire multi trillion dollar industry has to very, very rapidly change everything and you could very easily end up, you know, I don't know how many people remember the millennium bug panic, right, where computers built in the 60s only had so many bits to represent dates. And so on the year 2000, there was going to be a bit flip where they would all think they're back in 1900, right? And then that would have screwed up banking. It would have basically people thought that like the electric grid was going to fail and planes were going to fall out of the sky. And so for the last few years leading up to the millennium, there were thousands Tens of thousands of developers who had been brought out of retirement because they knew the old languages and were fixing all of these systems using bigger, you know, the greater memory capacity to avoid the problem. And in the end, you know, the year flipped over and nothing happened. But that's what we're going to see. We're going to see panic of that level. There's going to be old crusty solidity developers brought out of retirement for one last gig.
Scott Melker
Yeah, I'm going to just go ahead and put my blinders on and say, not a problem, because it just generally conflicts with my worldview and I don't want to hear it. Bitcoin's perfect and nothing could possibly happen. But yeah, I think we have much bigger problems. But it is interesting that so many other industries and platforms would be able to pivot much easier to protect themselves from this. So definitely worth keeping on the radar. I just still think a one bitcoin reward is laughable. That's the funniest part to me.
Iago
Oh yeah, that's just a joke with which to start the conversation.
Scott Melker
Yeah, you can have all the money in the world. Here's a bitcoin for taking. I can't even imagine how much you would spend to try to do this, but it would be a lot more than one bit bitcoin. Yeah. So listen, now we are going to move on to a little bit more of what's happening. And it's another narrative that we have and it's obviously become very, very in vogue to talk about bitcoin versus gold. So much so that you have JP Morgan talking about bitcoin versus Gold. JP Morgan says bitcoin has failed to benefit from safe haven flows back in gold. Now, this is somewhat factual from their perspective because what they're talking about is money flowing into gold ETFs and out of Bitcoin ETFs, which has happened. I mean, you can't argue about it. We can argue about why those things might be happening, the carry trade being specifically one of them on bitcoin. But they're seeing that basically it's flowing out of bitcoin and into gold ETFs. And here, of course, Crypto Daybook Americas. Bitcoin loses allure to gold as economic concerns rise. And if we're being intellectually honest, here's the bitcoin to gold ratio. And since it topped back in December, it has been nothing but down. So gold has outperformed from a price perspective. So we have this digital gold narrative we've talked about it a million times. I don't personally like it because I think bitcoin is bitcoin. Sometimes it'll trade like gold, sometimes it'll trade like a tech stock. But the price doesn't actually dictate the narrative in my perspective. But I would love yours.
Iago
Well, look, I think the vast majority of people who are making decisions around hedging global macro, macroeconomic events, you know, these are top level decisions for sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, large institutions, pensions. It would be very, very strange if they suddenly chose bitcoin, right? They've been choosing gold for the last, you know, for their entire career. And the people who trained them have been choosing gold and the people who trained them. I think what's surprising is not that Bitcoin isn't yet considered a safe haven on par with gold, but that Bitcoin is considered a safe haven at all. And if you look at how Bitcoin has traded in comparison to other risk assets, in comparison to the Nasdaq for example, it has held up very, very well over the last few weeks of significant macro uncertainty. So my sense is that Bitcoin continues to be an emerging reserve asset rather than the current reserve asset and judging it. And so, you know, newspapers, they write headlines and slogans like digital gold. Bitcoin is not yet digital gold in that it's not going, it hasn't replaced gold. People don't treat it in the same way as gold. And like we were talking a moment ago, there are risks related to Bitcoin that you don't have with gold. Right. There is no way that you can fork gold. Gold doesn't have a quantum problem. It's a, it's a fundamental element. On the, on the elemental ETFs do though. But yeah, yeah, it's a gold ETF, Stewart. But Bitcoin obviously has very, very significant advantages in terms of your ability to utilize it in a increasingly digital world. So I don't think that there was ever much risk of bitcoin completely replacing gold or there was much chance of bitcoin suddenly becoming on par with gold like overnight. But what we are seeing is that over time bitcoin has continued to appreciate faster than gold because it's got a much bigger new market that it's created. It has continued to have relatively low correlation and it, and sort of right now a anti correlation, a hedged correlation to risk assets and we are seeing governments more and more talking about adoption. So as an emerging reserve asset, obviously there is nothing like bitcoin.
Scott Melker
Yeah, I agree. I Think it will just continue to evolve and behave more like gold? Perhaps. But like I said, from a price perspective, to me, Bitcoin is just Bitcoin. And that's the beauty of it. Like, I don't want it to be correlated to gold price, and I don't want it to be correlated to the NASDAQ price. I want it to float on its own and be an uncorrelated asset, which improves portfolios for investors and also improves the appeal of it to your everyday person who wants to just hold Bitcoin and be their own bank.
Iago
Yeah, I think, I think it's also, you know, progress is made One, One funeral at a time. Yes, there's a lot of people who are not going to change their ways. The, the, the, the. The wealthiest people and sort of the most senior people in the financial. You know, you're talking about Powell. Powell did not grow up using Bitcoin. But, you know, I've been exposed to Bitcoin since I was pretty young. So have you. People younger than us have basically grown up like my kids, growing up in.
Scott Melker
A world where it's going to be the most natural.
Iago
He doesn't own any gold. He owns Bitcoin. So I think there's a generational switch that happens here, and that generational switch is happening pretty quickly because it's the boomer to millennial switch, which is happening as we speak. Right. Boomers are retiring in droves right now, and that process will complete over the next 10 years.
Scott Melker
So the next topic we have to talk about is that this guy, Mr. Jerome Powell, spoke yesterday. A lot of people looking for clues as to what will happen in the market based on what way he sneezes or blinks or if his hair shakes differently when he talks, because that's what markets apparently move on. But first, we did get more confirmation that choke point 2.0. Operation choke point 2.0, is likely over. He's saying potential loosening of crypto rules for banks, basically. This echoes everything else we're seeing from every regulator and their approach to the industry. Right. The sec, cftc, occ, fdic, all getting on board with allowing crypto activity in the United States. Okay, that's one. That's the honorable mention. But what people really want to know is if he's going to cut rates, whether that even matters or not. Well, he's being really stubborn. He basically says that tariffs are going to be inflationary, that he can't cut anytime soon. They're going to wait for the data, and then you have on the flip side, Trump says Powell's termination at Fed can't happen fast enough. Already interviewing new candidates, it's getting pretty ugly, right? And I think that's no surprise, but you do have the ECB already cutting. So we kind of have these different narratives all around the world on what's going to happen with rate cuts. So it's worth discussing whether that even matters for prices. I think liquidity matters a lot more. I don't think the rate cuts themselves are going to do much at this point. I think we're fiscal driven. It's going to matter more what the treasury does.
Iago
Yeah, I, I think that's probably true. I think that there is nothing in the world which is going to stop increased liquidity. The, even if the, even if the, you know, people think that if you cut rates, that increases liquidity. But there's so much government debt out there, right? There's, there's $36 trillion in U.S. government debt alone, U.S. federal government debt alone, which is paying increasing rates. Right? Just the interest on that is in the trillions, which means the trillions have to come from somewhere and they're not coming from taxes because there's a growing deficit which is not covered by taxes. And so those trillions have to be printed. And so actually if you reduce rates, interest payments by the US Government would, would potentially decrease and so you would have less new money flowing in from that direction. And so the, the, the US Government and Fed are tied in this very weird situation where if they increase rates, that increases liquidity, if they decrease rates, that increases liquidity. And so there's this double bind right now. My sense is that what we're seeing with tariffs, with PAL is this spasmodic sort of like the, the, the, the, the, the epileptic attack at the end of, of the process before they have to go to yield curve control. So yield curve control is basically a nice way of saying we're going to keep, we're going to make ourselves less sensitive to interest rates by basically accepting inflation and allowing inflation to reduce the cost of borrowing. Right? So if you borrow today at 6%, but the dollar for the next five years, but the dollar devalues by 12% by the next five years, then you actually pay back less than what you borrowed. And I think that kind of inflation is inevitable. The 2% number has, EO is just an arbitrary number. The Fed and the, the ECB and basically all global bank central banks have a 2% target for inflation that was invented by the central bank of the Mighty nation of New Zealand 30 years ago. Just as a rule of thumb, there's nothing sacred about it. There's no theoretical basis for it. And so I think at some point we're going to see capitulation because there's really nothing holding it up. Capitulation means that we'll go from standardized 2% inflation to 3%.
Scott Melker
Yeah, they're going to print the hell out of money. No matter what happens. There's just no other way. Yeah, everyone, it's, it's, I mean, it is the system.
Iago
When debt gets high enough, then, yes, there's basically, you know, there's no other way out.
Scott Melker
Yeah. Iago, man, thank you as always for joining, especially. I know you got a baby running around, you know, I know how those days are. You never know when you're gonna sleep. But it's not going to be at 9:00am Eastern Standard Time on Thursdays.
Iago
That's right. For at least half an hour.
Scott Melker
Of course. Well, check out, guys. Give him a follow on X. And of course, check out Bitcoin OS. Can you give the 30 second update, by the way, on Bitcoin OS? Let's take status progress where you're at.
Iago
Yeah, we've got, we're working really, really hard right now, not sleeping for other reasons. We expect to be launching something pretty cool and exciting over the next few weeks, so I'll keep you posted.
Scott Melker
I think we'll, we'll have the Thursday updates then. Perfect. Thank you, man.
Iago
All right, cool. Cheers.
Scott Melker
All right, guys, before we head on to Dan really quickly, obviously, aptos. Am I pointing at it? I did it. Look, I did a thing and then my camera freaked out. I need to like figure out how to make my camera not do that when I do hand signals. Thought I turned them off. I'm just bad at this. I'm such a boomer at cameras and technology and stuff. I wonder if I can make that happen again. Anyways, let's talk really quickly about the fastest growing ecosystem that there is on planet Earth in crypto. And that's actually true. You could check out this thread from Aptos, which was just from April 13. What happened across the Aptos ecosystem just this week? Buckle up because you're in for a long ride. Especially with the speed at which money moves on aptos. I mean, it's literally crazy how many things have watched revive finance play. 3 AI. I don't even know how to pronounce that one. Spook labs. All these literally. Look at the thread. This is how many things have happened there in A single week. Absolutely astounding. And then of course, they're leaving all L1s index volume growth over the past three months. Obviously Solana yesterday was announced at they had done the most volume, but in terms of sheer growth, Aptos absolutely the fastest right now. There's a reason that we're partnered with them. If you haven't used Aptos, it's absolutely incredible. They finally solved this. King Graham I use it uxai. Really, really simple, extremely fast, extremely cheap. Check it out. And now on to Dan. Good morning, sir.
Dan
Morning. How you doing?
Scott Melker
I'm good, man. You know, we were just talking about that bitcoin gold ratio thing and yeah, gold has absolutely been flying. But I have to say I'm still pretty impressed that bitcoin is sitting in the 84 thousands with all this insanity happening around it.
Dan
Yeah, I mean, as Iago mentioned, bitcoin has had relative strength to the NASDAQ over, you know, we just hit two and a half month highs pretty much right now on bitcoin. This is the four hour timeframe and I'm just watching our channel that we're chopping around sideways. 83,000 is a key support and essentially my mindset is if 83,000 holds, this is a daily bull flag getting ready for another leg up. So as long as 83 is holding, bulls are just fine overall. And that's been impressive because again, you look at the NASDAQ yesterday, it had a pretty solid drop. There was, as you mentioned, the Powell stuff and he said something like the Fed's not gonna intervene in markets or something and everybody sells, but bitcoin held on pretty well. And I'm also noting relative strength in mstr. This is the monthly chart. MSTR has relative strength to bitcoin. Bitcoin has relative strength to the nasdaq. But watching for MSTR to set the monthly higher low, of course, watching for bitcoin to set the monthly higher low. And as you mentioned, you know, the relationship with gold, I actually made this tweet yesterday, I believe, but this is the two week time frames with gold on the left and bitcoin on the right. And I circle the same periods of time and let me just fix that where you've got, you know, brief gold consolidation, Bitcoin breakout, Bitcoin pretty significant consolidation. Gold breakout to all time highs, Gold sideways consolidation. Bitcoin gets its leg up. Bitcoin consolidation, gold. So there's a very clear, pretty substantial inverse relationship over the last three years between gold and bitcoin. This, that's Going to change eventually.
Scott Melker
Is it clear which one's following the other? I mean, it kind of looks like bitcoin follows gold. I guess you can call it either way if it's back and forth. Right.
Dan
But, yeah, it's chicken, egg, leapfrog.
Scott Melker
Either way. You would expect that if gold finally chills here and consolidates, that bitcoin would go up.
Dan
That's. That's the expectation. Just because it aligns a number of things. Again, a monthly higher low is the most likely scenario for me on bitcoin, gold's very overextended. Yes, it's blue sky breakout. It can stay overextended for a long period of time, but that tells me start watching for the shift again. And, you know, these inverse relationships, direct correlations, they come and go, but they are useful while they're there. And something being around for three years is definitely long enough to be useful. So I'm definitely keeping an eye out for gold. You know, we're reaching consensus on. Oftentimes, consensus is when you see macro pivots, just in the sense that, you know, everybody is saying, oh, well, gold's a good idea, because this Chinese tariff stuff. Okay, well, in a couple of weeks from now, who's still yet to act on that narrative and grab their gold position, everybody's already got it. So maybe we get some monthly consolidation in gold and bitcoin makes its move back up, you know, 95, 100,000. Try to test the recent high. That's definitely something that is a top watch for me into May.
Scott Melker
I thought that gold might chill, like between 3,000 and 3,100, just on the psychological level, but I didn't expect that Trump would go full, you know, ledgehammer. So I think that obviously changed my opinion.
Dan
I'm. I'm the kind of person. I just looked up a tweet from 2019 where I was saying, you know, you want to own some of both to diversify, own some gold, owned some bitcoin. And then I did the math, and Bitcoin 10x gold during that period.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Dan
So I still have the same, you know, mindset. I've got some gold, I've got some bitcoin. I won't sell either of those positions for a very long time, decades plus. But everything has its purpose. And, you know, there are periods where one will outperform the other, and that's just the way the markets go. So just to touch quickly on your conversation with Iago about Quantum, Just from my perspective, that's. That's the one thing that keeps me going really aggressive into bitcoin where, you know, again, I've got my long term no touch position. But for me, I don't want to get back the gains that crypto has given me since 2017. And that's the one thing that I know that I'm not smart enough to understand and accurately assess the risks over. And I've got a friend, you know, we made, we made it in 2017 together in crypto, leveling up, you know, our net worth. And he is still all in bitcoin and I just can't have my brain work that way where, you know, I would risk giving back all of those gains on a black swan event. So that's just my mindset. Definitely still want exposure, but it is this looming thing that keeps me from going overly aggressive and you know, just something to be aware of for, you know, people that obviously have a significant portion of their net worth into bitcoin.
Scott Melker
Yeah. And Q's actually just open. I mean the market just opened. I checked QQQ down. I mean tech's been down obviously and bitcoin, I mean moved 300 bucks or so, but still holding pretty strong in the mid 84,000.
Dan
So yeah, I'm watching the NASDAQ into next week. This is the 12 hour timeframe and it's essentially just, you know, a tightening range here. I'm watching to see if we can form another higher low and tighten up Monday, Tuesday. But the burdens on bulls here in the short term and we would need to see a four hour trend change on the Nasdaq and how that relates to bitcoin's four hour. It's essentially the same thing. You know, we're tightening up on the four hour that's going to break into the weekend. Keep in mind markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so volume will likely dwindle on crypto a good bit. But crypto will still be where the action is over the weekend. So definitely paying close you're looking at.
Scott Melker
I mean, in context of all this nonsense. I mean, are you kind of still leaning towards cash and sidelines while you wait for it all to pan out?
Dan
Yeah, I'm grabbing some dividend positions. You know, I'm watching Walmart for a monthly higher low because there's no major red flags on this, you know, consolidation after a massive breakout. You know, you could be looking at Microsoft for a three month higher low. It all depends on your time horizon. I'm actually going to be doing a Webinar today at 5pm on our YouTube channel, big picture time frames, three months, six month charts. I'll do a little bit of crypto, but you know, mostly the indices and things like that. So stop on by if you want to zoom out and look at, you know, expectations for the rest of the year into 2020. What year are we on? Six. 2026.
Scott Melker
All right, so that's at. You said 5:00pm today.
Dan
5:00Pm Chuck. Guys on YouTube.
Scott Melker
Guys follow chart. Guys on YouTube, you get like 10 minutes at best of Dan here. You can get hours and hours and hours of Dan if you go to his YouTube. Is there anything else you're watching, by the way? I switch that over, but I mean.
Dan
I'm still keeping an eye on. We mentioned it last week. CRV has been an altcoin that's been giving us some relative strength. But we did. I never like to see a flag confirmed with no follow through. This is a bull flag with zero follow through.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Dan
So whenever that happens, you know, I always watch for the possibility of a rising wedge. So there is still relative strength there. But just, you know, yesterday was 10 up. Well, while everything else was 1 to 2%. Oh boy, here we go. And now it's kind of like, you know, putting some water on the fire, so to speak of it. But definitely still a top watch. CRV TRX was another one that I was liking because of the. It was doing its own thing. It had a nice clear sideways range. It wasn't really as tied to bitcoin as all the other altcoins are. So I'll continue monitoring that one as well. We did get a bull break. Again, not a ton of follow through, but just some little pockets of altcoin relative strength when most altcoins look really ugly.
Scott Melker
Hard to be interested in any of them right now. All right, guys, once again, give Dan a run. I love the comments over here because I was wearing a cash rules everything around me shirt, which is wuang. They all, I guess noticed that they're now throwing out wuang lyrics and song names. Best chat ever and otherwise. Guys, we will see you, Dan and I, next week and I will see you guys for the Friday 5 tomorrow. Thanks, Dan. Really appreciate it.
Dan
See you.
Scott Melker
Bye. Let's do.
Iago
That'S dope.
Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets Episode Title: Can You REALLY Hack Bitcoin… And Win 1 BTC ($84,000)? Release Date: April 17, 2025 Host: Scott Melker Guests: Iago and Dan from Chart
In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker delves deep into the intricate world of Bitcoin, quantum computing, and the evolving dynamics between digital and traditional assets. Joined by experts Iago and Dan from Chart, the discussion navigates through the potential vulnerabilities of Bitcoin, its comparison to gold, and the broader macroeconomic factors influencing the cryptocurrency market.
[00:01]
Scott Melker opens the conversation with a provocative question: "Can bitcoin really be hacked using quantum computing? And is trying worth one bitcoin?" This sets the stage for an in-depth exploration of quantum computing's implications on Bitcoin's security.
Potential Risks of Quantum Computing
Iago elaborates on the advancements in quantum computing, highlighting its capability to break current cryptographic systems. He explains, "If you could get it to a few hundred, then you can crack basically all of cryptography and with it you could crack Bitcoin" ([02:04]). This underscores the existential threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin's foundational security.
Quantum-Secure Cryptography and Bitcoin's Future
The discussion shifts to possible solutions, such as integrating quantum-secure cryptography into Bitcoin through a hard fork. Iago raises concerns about the practicality and implications of such a move, especially regarding the vast amounts of Bitcoin in inactive addresses. He muses, "There's no one knows if this is going to happen anytime soon, but there is potential risk if quantum became real, it would be a real problem for Bitcoin." ([04:11]).
Real-World Implications and Urgency
Scott emphasizes the broader impact, noting that a successful quantum attack wouldn't just threaten Bitcoin but also "the nuclear codes and the banking system and effectively anything else that's cryptographical protected anywhere on the Internet." ([03:59]). Iago acknowledges the current limitations of quantum computing but warns of its inevitable progress, stating, "There's a lot of eyes on it, and we are living in a more and more sci fi world." ([07:22]).
Future Prospects and Timeline
When asked about the timeline for quantum threats, Iago remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting it's "nothing to panic about" in the near term but acknowledging it as a "long term" issue ([09:25]). He compares the promise of quantum computing to perennial sci-fi breakthroughs like fusion, often perpetually "10 years away."
Current Market Dynamics
Shifting focus, Scott introduces the debate between Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets. He references JP Morgan's observation that "bitcoin has failed to benefit from safe haven flows back in gold" ([12:33]), highlighting the recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs to gold ETFs.
Iago's Perspective: Bitcoin as an Emerging Reserve Asset
Iago counters by positioning Bitcoin as an "emerging reserve asset," distinct from gold. He points out Bitcoin's advantages in the digital age and its growing appeal among younger generations who are more digitally native. "Bitcoin continues to be an emerging reserve asset rather than the current reserve asset," he states ([16:46]).
Generational Shift and Adoption Trends
The conversation touches on the generational transition from gold to Bitcoin. Iago notes, "People younger than us have basically grown up like my kids, growing up in a world where it's going to be the most natural." ([17:54]). This generational shift is seen as a driving force behind Bitcoin's continued appreciation and its potential to surpass gold in the long run.
Dan's Technical Analysis on Bitcoin vs. Gold
Dan contributes by analyzing the inverse relationship between Bitcoin and gold over the past three years. He observes patterns where Bitcoin breaks out following gold's consolidation and vice versa. "There's a very clear, pretty substantial inverse relationship over the last three years between gold and bitcoin." ([27:15]). He remains optimistic about Bitcoin's trajectory, anticipating a move towards $95,000 or $100,000 once gold stabilizes ([27:28]).
Jerome Powell and Central Bank Policies
The discussion shifts to macroeconomic policies, particularly statements from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Scott mentions Powell's stance against imminent rate cuts, which has led to market volatility. "He's being really stubborn. He basically says that tariffs are going to be inflationary, that he can't cut anytime soon." ([19:50]).
Liquidity vs. Interest Rates
Iago delves into the complexities of current monetary policies, highlighting the U.S. government's massive debt burden. He explains the "double bind" where both increasing and decreasing rates can inadvertently boost liquidity due to the nature of government debt obligations ([22:50]). This scenario is leading to unconventional measures like yield curve control, where central banks accept higher inflation rates to manage borrowing costs.
Future Outlook: Inflation and Monetary Policy
Iago predicts a shift from the long-held 2% inflation target to higher rates, signifying a permanent change in monetary policy. "There's nothing holding it up. Capitulation means that we'll go from standardized 2% inflation to 3%." ([22:50]). This anticipated shift will have profound implications for global markets and investor strategies.
Aptos Ecosystem Growth
Scott transitions to updates on the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, spotlighting Aptos as the fastest-growing platform. He highlights the rapid development and partnerships within the Aptos network, praising its user experience and scalability. "They finally solved this. King Graham I use it uxai. Really, really simple, extremely fast, extremely cheap." ([23:29]).
Altcoin Performance Analysis
Dan provides insights into specific altcoins like CRV and TRX, noting their relative strength despite broader market downturns. He discusses patterns such as bull flags and rising wedges, indicating potential movements and opportunities within the altcoin space. "CRV has been an altcoin that's been giving us some relative strength." ([32:00]).
Bitcoin's Resilience Amid Market Turbulence
Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory challenges, Bitcoin remains steadfast. Dan notes Bitcoin's relative strength compared to traditional assets like the NASDAQ, attributing this resilience to its emerging status as a reserve asset.
Investment Strategies and Diversification
Both guests advocate for diversification, combining Bitcoin with traditional assets like gold to hedge against various risks. Dan shares his personal strategy of holding both assets long-term, emphasizing the importance of maintaining exposure to Bitcoin despite potential threats. "I've got some gold, I've got some bitcoin. I won't sell either of those positions for a very long time, decades plus." ([28:38]).
Upcoming Developments and Webinars
The episode concludes with mentions of upcoming webinars and platform updates, encouraging listeners to stay engaged with the latest developments in the crypto space.
This episode of The Wolf Of All Streets offers a comprehensive look into the challenges and opportunities facing Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. From the existential threat of quantum computing to the evolving role of Bitcoin as an emerging reserve asset, Scott Melker and his guests provide valuable insights and nuanced perspectives. As the financial landscape continues to shift, the discussions underscore the importance of adaptability, diversification, and forward-thinking strategies in navigating the complex world of digital assets.
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