← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Crypto Bloodbath! BTC Corrects, Alts See 20% Drops | Crypto Town Hall
00:38:32
Crypto Bloodbath! BTC Corrects, Alts See 20% Drops | Crypto Town Hall
Loading summary
Transcript103 lines
- [00:01]
Rand
Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. For those of you who attempted to sign on and watch my YouTube show, it was more of a bloodbath than the crypto market. Apparently Streamyard today for a lot of spaces as well, release video feeds on X. And YouTube was completely down this morning, unbeknownst to literally anyone who attempted to stream. And so there was no audio coming out of Streamyard onto x or onto YouTube. We launched it twice, didn't work, tried recordings, didn't work. And then 20 minutes later, right when we gave up, it all started working again. Classic. So for anyone who is attempting to use Streamyard or listen to any streams from there and notice that there was no audio this morning, that is exactly what happened. Crypto Bloodbath bitcoin corrects alt c20 drops I absolutely love that we can be having a conversation in December of 2024. That bloodbath is $97,000. Bitcoin shows exactly how far we've come that there could possibly be a panic when Bitcoin is $3,000 below 100,000.
- [01:11]
Dave
I don't think the issue was bitcoin. I think the issue was the altcoin is like some of the old coins were down in that little frat. I call it a flash correction. 30%, 40%. The meme coin, some of them went down 50%. And I think that that got a little bit scary. I mean, it was the biggest liquidation event in September 2021. Like that. That's not, that's not, you know, that, that's quite brutal. So I think bitcoin helps strong, but. Bitcoin helps strong, but. But it's the altcoins that people got upset about that was the issue.
- [01:40]
Rand
But isn't this one, I mean, this is classic bull market flushes, right?
- [01:45]
Dave
Yes. Yes. So you want to talk about classic bull market. Classic bull market. We should have had a, we should have had a 20 to 30% correction already. We haven't had one since the election. We haven't had, I don't think anything since the break of the all time high. We haven't had a, a 20 to 30% correction for now, like 60 days or something like that. I actually did a show about that today and actually there's something that's worrying me in this market. And I think the reason why I jumped on yesterday after not having been here for a few days is actually to hear some smarter people than me talk about it. So the thing that's worrying me is the following. Every day I've been seeing or every week I've been seeing MicroStrategy announce these crazy buys on bitcoin. In fact, when I tallied up the number of buyers, they've bought $17 billion worth of Bitcoin since November 5th, believe it or not, they bought 171,413 Bitcoin, which cost them about $17 billion more or less. And so when I look at the charts and I say, okay, if MicroStrategy bought 171,430 and the ETFs bought 105,000, MicroStrategy basically bought 2 to 1 the amount of Bitcoin that the ETFs have bought. Right. He also announced the plan where he's going to buy $42 billion worth of Bitcoin and he's already burned through $17 billion of that $42 billion after just a few weeks. If the market is a forward looking vehicle, which I believe the market is a forward looking vehicle and the market knows that there's been this one I want to call an unnatural buyer, but we'll talk about that in a second. This is one unnatural buyer that has bought $17 billion. The market's going to eventually say, if the market believes that he can continue to buy at a volume of $2 billion per week, and there is an argument that says that he can continue to buy at $2 billion a week. I'll take you through an argument in a second. But either the market believes that he can continue to buy at 2 to 3 billion dollars a week, or at some point the market's going to go, hold on a second, there are people selling to him. And even when he's buying 2 to 3 billion dollars per week, he can't keep the price above 100,000. Which means that the minute that he takes his foot off the accelerator just for one or two weeks, because the inflow of money into his, I'm going to call it an inverter commerce. A fund is definitely not a fund, but into his vehicle is $2 billion. The minute that that slows down from the two to $3 billion that he's been getting every week, then all of a sudden you've got probably the same amount of sellers and you don't have the same amount of buyers and then effectively the whole thing can actually start collapsing. Right? And so the question is how sustainable this micro strategy buying is. Because if it's not, then I think that that could cause a massive correction. Because I think between him and the ETF buyers, they've single handedly kept this market up above the they've seen, they've been the guys to push the market up. It certainly hasn't been the ETFs or anything like that.
- [04:43]
Rand
What do you make then of the altcoin action in context of that?
- [04:47]
Dave
Well, I think the altcoins needed a bit of a leverage flash. We haven't had a correction. But I still think there's a long way to grow, to be honest. Like I think that you can't just because altcoins corrected 20, 30% for me doesn't constantly. I know what a correction feels like. A correction is when you feel scared.
- [05:04]
Rand
When you 25 or 30% bitcoin correction would be 50, 60% correction on alts in the middle of a bull market before they go back.
- [05:12]
Dave
And that's normal. And that would be normal, right?
- [05:15]
Rand
Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, I mean yesterday, like you said, if it's good instilling fear, that's not even really fear yet. If actually.
- [05:24]
Dave
Well, I think the question for me is more like is it just me or is there anybody else here in the panel and in the audience that is again, not concerned about micro strategy? I think microsetter is a genius. I think micro strategy, what they're doing is, I think it's so, so, so, so, so, so, so smart. It's ridiculous. Like what he's done in creating a vehicle for fixed income, he's engineered a vehicle where fixed income securities investors can now capitalize on upside bitcoin returns. I mean that, that's absolutely, absolutely, absolutely genius. Right now. I just, it just worries me that he seems to be the only buyer in the market. I don't know how you guys feel about that. I'm keen to hear.
- [06:04]
Rand
Let's go through it, Dave.
- [06:07]
Storm
Well, first of all, what he's doing is monetizing volatility, which very smart, unquestionably has an advantage. Others are going to do it. And what you need to understand is there's a great unlock that's going to happen over the next year when we have a new regime. I mean we still. January 20th can't come fast enough for me. But the reality is once you have the ability for brokers to be able to operate in the bitcoin space, there will be no all manner of structured products created monetizing volatility, whether it be convertibles off of bitcoin or principal protected notes off of bitcoin, et cetera. That's thing number one and sailors tapped into it. But what's interesting here, Rand, is the misnomer that you have the one piece of the analysis, because I agree with a lot of what you said, is that what Saylor has effectively done, and you started to get at that in the last bit, and this is important, is he's opened up the investor universe to bitcoin. So it's a lot of new money is effectively being invested in bitcoin via this vehicle from people who either a in their 401ks want leverage because we know that people are all inveterate, everyone's a gambler, and everybody wants leverage and adrenaline. And so he's opened that up. I mean, hell, that's why I have a piece in my 401k and for people, as you say, on the fixed income side, who want a principal protected vehicle that will get them some exposure to bitcoin upside return. So he's opened up that universe, tapping into that, bringing forward that demand that we were all talking about in the beginning of the year. Remember, we had long conversations about the proper allocation. So then the question you have to ask yourself when you're looking at this market is, is the, are we at a stable equilibrium with regard to investors in bitcoin? You know, people being at kind of their terminal place of where they will be in their portfolios? And I think the answer to that is no. And that's why you're seeing this market where bitcoin corrects a teeny bit and altcoins correct a lot. The reason altcoins correct a lot is because, you know, the people made their money in bitcoin, they rushed into the altcoin markets and nobody rushed in behind them. And there was an air pocket. I mean, I don't care which one you look at. I mean, I'll give a few. I mean, XRP going up by a factor of five. So it goes up from $0.60 to 260, 270, 280. And the fact that it's back down, I don't know, my cat pulled out my screen, so I'm not looking at it, but you know, significantly below that, but still way hot, way above that.
- [08:51]
Rand
213 now. Yeah, it's sitting at 213. It did temporarily go right down to 200 bucks.
- [08:57]
Storm
Yeah, right. So I mean, you know, what is that? You know, when you look at it, these are huge percentage moves. And the same thing is true. I mean, I watch Phantom, which is, you know, a Dino blockchain that supposedly. Well, whatever we go to it, you know.
- [09:12]
Dave
No, that's not true. That's not true. Because Phantom is the Reason why people are buying Phantom is because you get a token swap into Sonic. And Sonic is the new blockchain that's developed by Andre Cranier. And. And Sonic is probably one of the best things that's being, I think, one of the most exciting launches.
- [09:29]
Storm
Yeah, well, that's good because it's the literal only altcoin that I bought during the. Although I'm down on my purchase, I don't care. I'm dcaing and it doesn't matter. But, you know, but the fact is, look at the chart. 80 cents to 130 down to 110. I mean, you know, it's similar. Not nearly as explosive as xrp, but there are a lot of alts that look like that. I mean, you probably go through dozens of them on your show. Ram. My point is people got excited. They saw the money coming behind them and it wasn't there because bitcoin stalled out. And that's okay. And you're right, there are clearly, there's all sorts of. We always see these in intermediate tops, all sorts of FUD out there, all sorts of reasons it's going to stop, et cetera. I mean, it is literally two markets. That's really the only point that I'll make. And you're right about microstrategy, but we've also seen Riot and Marathon and Miners starting to do the convertible notes. And people don't understand that trade either. What they don't understand is what they're doing is saying, well, okay, I'm mining bitcoin. Why the hell am I selling it for expenses if I can get such cheap money by monetizing the volatility?
- [10:36]
Dave
Not really, Dave. With respect, the reason why the miners are buying bitcoin now is because what the hedges were doing is they were buying micro strategy and they were shorting the bitcoin miners.
- [10:49]
Storm
Yep.
- [10:49]
Dave
Right. And the reason. And so they were putting a lot. There were a lot of. There were a lot of shorts open on the bitcoin miners because they weren't capitalized in bitcoin, where a micro strategy was. The arbitrage came in and said, let's go long mstr because you're getting leverage, long upside. And then let's go short as the hedge. Let's go short the bitcoin miners. And so in order to stop, to immunize themselves against the hedge, the short, the bitcoin miners had to put bitcoin on their books. And that would almost give them a vaccine against being shorted. And so Marathon was the first one that did it and then everyone else, basically marathon was the proof of concept. It worked. And then all the bitcoin miners, cool. We don't want to be shorted anymore because it affects our stock price, etc. Etc. And so what we're going to do is we're going to put Bitcoin on our balance sheets, and then that way you've pretty much got the vaccine and you can't be infected by the short virus.
- [11:54]
Storm
Yeah, I mean, sort of. I mean, the answer is sort of there. I mean, if you're a CFO of a company and you're managing to your bottom line, I mean, yes, they. People do care about your stock prices. I'm not going to lie about that. Of course they do.
- [12:11]
Dave
The reason why I'm telling you this is because I saw two decks that were raising money for these convertibles and both of them cited that as the reason. And that's why I was like, okay, I know exactly why you're doing this.
- [12:23]
Storm
Well, but what they're telling people, the reason for that is they're saying, listen, our stock is heavily shorted. It's undervalued the convertible, therefore there's a lot behind it. Right. We talk about this a lot, but people don't get it. It's that it's interrelated. I always talk about selling volatility, but volatility shouldn't be. People don't think of it as an asset, but the way options work is it becomes an asset. And so effectively allowing them to finance at dramatically lower rates. That's a large part of what MicroStrategy proved. And that's a good thing if that's the business you're in. So if you want people to buy you and support your stock because you're mining Bitcoin, well, why not go all in? I understand your point, but expect to see this playbook expand. It will eventually get armed out to the point where all the investors that have appetite for this sort of instrument will be satisfied. And, you know, MicroStrategy is a huge lead, but remember, it's the investors in the converts, just like with BlackRock, the investors in the ETF. That's where you're looking for signs of exhaustion. And it will come. You're right about that. And maybe it's already come, but I just don't think that it has yet.
- [13:44]
E
Talking about Michael Saylor, I think Michael Saylor and Micro Strategies Brilliance is mostly in the fact that they are changing the way people view crypto assets, specifically bitcoin obviously as more of long term investments like a real estate or a gold. And I think he's kind of famous for saying, you know, he's always going to buy tops. And I think a lot of people are taking the idea that you know, micro strategy is kind of top blasting bitcoin here around 100k as like a really bullish signal. But to me I think, I think Ron said it, but it's just a classic kind of exhaustion dump after a really big pump after the election. And so if you look at all the fundamentals and technicals, I pinned that tweet up that I tweeted a couple weeks ago. But you have the market that's kind of an extreme euphoria, specifically the altcoin market as well with XRP pumping up 500%, some of these meme coins pumping up 3,400% in a couple weeks. And so for me it had all the recipes for kind of a shorter term correction. Not that I think this is the top of the cycle because I don't think it is. But I don't think a lot of people, I think, you know, they, they hear that news of micro strategy just buying up tons of Bitcoin at 100k. I don't think that has really like a ton of bearing on the market. I think the market's still extremely exhausted when you look at, you know, like things like the fear and grid index and then you know, where liquidity is lying. So. But yeah, I think, I think Michael Saylor is brilliant in the fact that he's just really changing the way people are looking at bitcoin where he's going to buy bitcoin no matter what the price is because he knows five to 10 years down the road it's going to be at a much higher price. And so I think the market is in, is, is due for more of a short term correction maybe down to like you know, 75, 80K, maybe even a little bit lower. But yeah, I think we're due for some sort of a correction in both the altcoin and high cap tokens.
- [15:39]
Rand
I mean that would just be a retest of the previous 74,000 all time high from back in March. I mean pretty classic from a technical perspective. I talked about that quite a bit. Rand made the point. I mean we just haven't seen the corrections on the way up that we saw in previous bull markets even long before we got to that 74,000 all time high. We're just getting much shallower corrections all the way.
- [16:01]
E
Exactly, exactly. And that's going to come, you know, like regardless of who's buying or how bullish the news is. The market is a market and it's going to fluctuate and go up and down. And because we haven't had that, that sharp correction, you know, my trader senses are like, you know, the market's overly euphoric and so. And there was also a lot of technical confluence around 100k. So made a lot of sense. But I also don't think that the correction is necessarily over. I think we go a little bit lower. And that was actually exactly my, my biggest price target was a retest of that 74k high.
- [16:33]
Rand
Dave, what are the, you know, significant retracement 75 or lower mean for those convertible notes? Anything.
- [16:40]
Storm
I mean, I don't think, I don't think it means anything. I mean, so it's a question of how far, you know, where MicroStrategy stock goes to. Right. You know, but.
- [16:48]
Rand
Well, yeah, I get that that was my sort of the secondary effect of what would it do, you know, to the stock if we see a major bitcoin correction?
- [16:54]
Storm
I mean, look, the question is always the same. It was the.
- [17:02]
Rand
Got a call.
- [17:06]
Dave
I.
- [17:06]
Storm
Did and I'm going to have to jump. But it's really the only thing that would matter is if, if any something that would affect MicroStrategy is what's the, what's the word I'm looking for? Solvency, which I think we are so far from those levels. You know, let's talk about it. If bitcoin drops below the January levels, okay, then we're going to start having some conversations. I just don't think that's likely. But yes, I mean that, that's really what you're looking at, I think. I mean, I don't know what the number is, but I'm sure the number is a lot lower than people imagine.
- [17:35]
Rand
And of course. All right, good one man lawyer. You had your hand up before.
- [17:40]
Storm
Yeah.
- [17:40]
Robbie Young
I mean, look, it just really doesn't feel like it's going to matter that much. You know, I think there's a point there and obviously we were going to struggle around 100, especially if it's so artificially or driven by, you know, such a few number of factors. But you have to look at the fact that like you have to see the forest for the trees, I think and I don't mean to, you know, step on Rand's toes, but you know, right now the anti crypto army is still in the White House and bitcoin holders are on their way in. Really hard to think that I should be doing anything but, you know, spot accumulating the good things. I think if you're, if you're using leverage and you're, you know, you really should take heed and you know, 40% easily in a day could be bullish for the, for the long term. So be careful to Rand's point. But you know, like nothing about this market tells me that it's, it's topping out. At least that's my, my gut feeling about it.
- [18:35]
Rand
Ran, when you were talking about sort of this top, you're not talking about the end of a bull market, right. I mean you're talking about the advance of a major correction.
- [18:45]
Dave
I'm talking about a 20 to 30, 20 Bitcoin correction. I don't think we're going to see, I don't think we're going to see 30 corrections in the cycle.
- [18:52]
Robbie Young
Yeah, okay. I, I think you're right.
- [18:53]
Dave
Right.
- [18:54]
Rand
That lines with what Storm says. Right. I mean back to 80, you know, high 70s, low 80s, something like that, which would, I think terrifying people would terrify people.
- [19:03]
Dave
There's a CME gap at like 80, 79. There's a CME gap.
- [19:08]
Robbie Young
Yeah. Like I hate to be the drum. Like we've all, I've always done, everyone always does, but it's still just any few. There's so many players that could dip their toes in. That would start a race. Right. Like, I don't, I don't know if that Microsoft vote happened. I don't have high hopes for that.
- [19:23]
Rand
But that's today, I think.
- [19:24]
Robbie Young
Yeah, yeah. Like, I mean the fact that people are even talking about it, it's like a real thing. Like you know, what, what player, what level of player needs to come out and say I've been buying bitcoin, whether it's a nation state or a reputable corporation that then starts a race and what does that do to the, to the money into the central bank or central bank.
- [19:45]
Rand
Even Russia now talking about it like as of today or yesterday evening, to all of their sort of bullishness and labeling of this property. And you know, obviously to your point, in the next 100 to 150 days we could be talking about a bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States.
- [20:02]
Robbie Young
Absolutely. All game changing and anything can happen. So if you can, if you're worried about a 20% drawdown, it's because you're, you know, you're over leveraged, but anything but that. I think you should be extremely Bullish.
- [20:14]
Rand
I mean, pivoting from price here, which we can talk about pretty much endlessly, we have Robbie Young here from Animoca, CEO of Animoca, which is always an opportunity to talk about what we should be excited about coming up. I mean, Robbie, obviously outside of price and seeing some things start to bubble, I think it's fun to talk about what narratives we think might play out, assuming we continue this bull market for the next six to 12 months, which I think is most people's default thinking. So, like, what are you guys looking at getting excited about now?
- [20:47]
Brian
So I think one of the big things which we mentioned briefly last week as well, is just the resurging interest in stuff that's IP driven. So PfP, you know, people who are building on chain new IP, whether it's through gaming or collectibles or other things. The big news over the last several days was that the Pudgy Penguins has announced that they're launching a token associated with that. And so I think that's again another trend that we're seeing where people are marrying NFT collections with fungible tokens, similar in this case to kind of what Yuga did with, with Apecoin on the back of their various PFP collections. And obviously the floor price of Pudgy Penguins has reacted as you would expect from a popular blue chip collection that announced a token. And I think, you know, and obviously people have been talking about Magic Eden too, because there have been rumors about Magic Eden launching a token and, and also Opensea as well, although they haven't announced anything. So I.
- [21:49]
Robbie Young
Magic Eden just launched. Right, like an hour ago or something like that.
- [21:52]
Brian
Yeah, sorry, yeah, exactly. And so there's been a lot of talk that in the sort of, let's call it entertainment space, and those are kind of the biggest stories of the moment. But I think it's cool because it's really reinforcing this idea that there is this new IP driven space where it's kind of the Venn diagram of entertainment, collecting, ip, financialization, trading, et cetera. For people who kind of like a little bit of it, all.
- [22:23]
Rand
That makes sense. How much do you think that we'll see? I mean, I think we've talked about this in the past. I think a lot of people are viewing the future of gaming and crypto very largely dependent on the success of Godzilla and Into the Grid at this point because it's been so hyped. Do you view it that way?
- [22:40]
Brian
No, I think. I think it's a great example, but I do think that picking, putting your eggs in the basket of the success of any one game is like saying, oh, well, you know, Avatar 3 will save the film industry. You know, it's, it's one product and some products have bigger investment and more hype than others. But I mean, look, the Solana community is still going nuts about Star Atlas, frankly, and a lot of people have forgotten about Star Atlas.
- [23:05]
Rand
So I've held it, I've held it through the entire cycle.
- [23:08]
Dave
Star Atlas ever launch?
- [23:10]
Brian
Exactly. And no, they haven't yet, but they're still making revenue from selling collectibles and other things, associated merch, et cetera. So I think it's about building communities around these different IPs and it's going to be. I don't think the goal is to build like the Candy Crush or the one game to rule them all. It's about serving communities and doing it really well and really profitably. And I think that we have a wide variety of games that are doing that on a wide variety of platforms. I think, Gonzilla, the exciting thing is with off the Grid to see how the sort of traditional game community on console on a new platform, you know, reacts to it, because that's something that we've not seen so far as an experiment. We know, you know, in browser games on Ronin do really well because we've got two big hit games there with Pixels and Axie Infinity, for example.
- [24:07]
Rand
Brian, what do you think of that? You're obviously looking at all of this and getting, you know, a prepared. I mean, it's worth asking. I mean, do you feel like you've made largely your investments for this cycle? Is there stuff that's still coming that you're excited about?
- [24:19]
Dave
No, not even, not even close. Not even close. Not even close. I mean, we're constantly chopping and changing. Whenever we see narratives, whenever we see investment opportunities, there's plenty of it. Like we, we always, we're always chopping and changing. I mean, I'm dying to see what off the grid does for, for gaming. I want to see what happens. But yeah, there's still a long way to go.
- [24:43]
Rand
Yeah. Anything else that you're excited about in, in general? I mean, I, I agree with Robbie. I think a lot of these things that actually have sort of utility and in game assets and I think we'll see a resurgence of NFTs. I question whether it will be PFPs. Rand. I know you're critical of that, Robbie. I mean, do you. I. Maybe you do, but I don't foresee like 10,000, 10,000 issuance cartoon pfp collections being the biggest thing of this cycle.
- [25:11]
Brian
Again, No, I don't think so. But I think what you will see is, you may see PFP collections being done by meme coin communities or other communities who don't yet have a pfp. Because I think what you'll see is people trying to build new IP collections on existing solid communities where they've already got traction and retention.
- [25:33]
Rand
I think that makes sense. I think that. That makes a ton of sense. Anything else?
- [25:39]
Dave
I think the market. I think the market's carrying on. I think the market's carrying on going down. I think you've got east now and it's V6. Yeah, it's coming down. It's coming down, kids. It's coming down.
- [25:48]
Rand
Bitcoin's at 96. 5. Where were we when we started? 975 or so. 97 7, yeah.
- [25:54]
Dave
But it's not. It's not bitcoin, it's the altcoins. And I've got short positions open on Pepe now, and I opened a short position on XRP and I've got a couple of other short positions and they're printing.
- [26:04]
Rand
And what's your exit plan?
- [26:09]
Dave
Probably when bitcoin hits, when Bitcoin closes that CME gap or not, or when I feel that people are really, really, really.
- [26:15]
Rand
So you intend to stay short for potentially a longer period right now?
- [26:20]
Dave
Yeah. Well, no. So, I mean, I'm not. I've got some leverage longs open. Like I've got a leverage long on eth open. I don't intend on closing that, but I'm just going to take a hedge by shorting Pepe. So I've got the short on Pepe, which I'll hold until I think the market's turned and then I'm. And I'm long on eth.
- [26:37]
Rand
Yeah, that makes that. That makes a lot of sense. But I'm assuming you're long on eth from further down.
- [26:45]
Dave
Yeah, my entry price on the leverage trade was 3,000.
- [26:48]
Rand
Right. So you can't. You wouldn't have the luxury. You wouldn't long eth here while shorting them. From this entry, you're staying.
- [26:55]
Dave
You're staying long. Again, I think what you're looking at now is you're not looking at price. I think you're looking at fear and greed. So I think you're not looking at price, you're looking to see when people are fearful. Because, remember, the market oscillates between greed and fear. So we've been Agreed. For a while. And now what you want to do is you want to start getting fear.
- [27:17]
Rand
Yeah, I'm kind of just reviewing the news right now for more topics. I was not aware and I'm sure, Robbie, you're on top of this, but Pudgy Penguins is about to launch their token, which is obviously sent them 45%. That seems like that should be a good, potentially be a catalyst for the, you know, kind of blue chip, I guess, NFT PFPs that have existed or for other parts of the market.
- [27:39]
Brian
Yeah. And I think also Luca, who, who runs the project, I mean, I think he's done a fantastic job of continuing to kind of inspire his community and keep everybody quite loyal. So I think you've noticed a lot of people since, you know, the rumored announcements, joining the Pudgy community over the last couple of weeks and, and yeah, I think this, this one's going to be a blockbuster, personally.
- [28:00]
Dave
So I think, yeah, I think that if you look, I look at Paji Penguins and just full disclosure, I am involved in the project. This. There's a couple of things that you got it. We gotta, we gotta understand in terms of Pudgy Penguins. Number one is Luca understands that the most important thing in this market is attention. So he understood it very, very early on in the game that the most important thing in this market is actually attention. And he's right, because if you think about the crypto market, there's probably, I don't know, 10,000 new platforms launching a day of which we can say maybe 500 to 600 have got really good tech. Truth is, though, I mean, my numbers may be completely wrong, but the truth is though, in a global market where you've got so many platforms launching with different technologies, the only way that you're going to differentiate yourself from anybody else is if you can get attention. I think what Luca realized early on, it's all about community and it's all about attention. The other thing which he's got is he's the one guy in crypto which has managed to get a negative cost of acquisition per client. When I say a negative cost of acquisition per client, he's got physical distribution of his product, which brings people into crypto through the, you know, the scanning of the QR code and whatever else, whatever other mechanisms he's got. And so he's the only one that has a. Because people are actually paying for his product, he actually has a negative cost of acquisition per product, per customer. And as far as I know, he's one of the Only people in the crypto, in the crypto industry, has managed to engineer a system where he's cost. His average cost of onboarding a customer is actually negative versus positive. So I think that, like, for me, that's a very interesting experiment because I think he's probably one of the only guys that's done it right.
- [29:44]
Rand
I mean.
- [29:45]
Storm
Yeah.
- [29:45]
Rand
With your dismissiveness of PFPs in this project, that's a pretty ringing endorsement, just knowing you and your view on this.
- [29:51]
Dave
Yeah.
- [29:52]
Rand
But it's hard to deny when they have toys selling in Walmart that this is a bit different.
- [29:57]
Dave
Well, yeah, I mean, you're talking. I think that the fact that he's got toy selling in Walmart is one thing, but the fact that he thinks like that, you know, like it. Number one, he's a master community builder. Number two, he thinks, you know, the fact that he thought about getting the toys into Walmart first because it would create a negative cost of onboarding per customer is, I think, where the genius came in. And now, of course, they're launching their own chain. I think it's a super exciting project. I know Peter Thiel's fund is invested in it. A lot of other big funds are invested in it. We're invested in it. Full disclosure. So I think. Yeah, just interesting. I think, you know, I tweeted the other day and I said, there's only one NFT project right now that I think is worth buying. I think it's Project Penguins.
- [30:39]
Rand
How's this guy? Yeah, I mean, apecoin obviously was sort of, I guess, the best comparison from last cycle. Right. I mean, if you owned an ape or a mutant or any of these things, you got Ape token. How is this different and why would it perform better? Robbie, I guess question for you.
- [30:53]
Dave
Well, sorry.
- [30:55]
Brian
Go ahead, Ren, go ahead.
- [30:58]
Dave
It was, to be honest, I think Ape was a cockfest. When I say a cockfist, it was like. It was just basically people trying to show off that I've got an ape and if I could be invited to the best party in New York and whatever else. I think Penguins is a very. I think it's a very, very, very different kind of community. I think that again, physical product, which is an amazing physical product, and they managed to get distribution of a physical product and they're using the physical product as a franchise in itself, but also to onboard people into the crypto product. And all the other crypto product projects actually went the other around where they said, well, if you have an ape and you want to license your Ape. And you want to create things, and that's great. And that's what they went. Penguins went the other way around and they said, look, the penguins are cool regardless of the, of the, of crypto. And if you, if you're, if you're, if you're a kid and you just want a cool penguin, that's cool. But if you want to buy the penguin and also be part of the crypto universe, that's also cool. And so I think that that's where they differentiated themselves.
- [31:57]
Rand
Robby, anything to add there?
- [31:59]
Brian
I was just going to say it's also, it's a different time, which means not just the market is different, but the pudgy penguins have been out as a community and doing things for a very long time together. So the sense of community and the maturity of the community is different when the time comes to launch an airdrop for a token. So I think perhaps you'll see the behavior of the community be different. And that's something that's quite interesting. And obviously, as I should have pointed out, you know, full disclosure, it was publicly announced last week or the week before, but we are also a shareholder.
- [32:33]
Rand
Go ahead.
- [32:35]
Robbie Young
Yeah, I just think it's worth noting.
- [32:36]
Dave
So I know I'm in good, I know I'm in good company. No, no, no, I'm in good company for sure.
- [32:41]
Rand
Go ahead. Sorry.
- [32:43]
Robbie Young
Yeah, I just think it's worth noting that. So Magic Eden did just have their airdrop. So if you've been using it, you can go check that out. Is that like $5, which, you know, is good money if you're, if you're getting an airdrop, but also would consider that, like, if you think NFTs are not gone, like, Magic Eden is a really great platform. I've liked using it. And if you think about what would have happened if opensea had an airdrop or had a token, and then like, leading up to their hype NFT cycle, I would think it's probably a good thing to maybe stake and hold onto, but it's a, it's cool that airdrops are coming out at least. Like, like, you know, there's still the ptsd. I think there's still the instinct to like, oh, get it and sell it before everybody else. But if you have a memory of other bull markets, that changes. Well, you know, airdrops have done very well in the past when they're tied to platforms that people use. So, you know, my thoughts are take your profits and keep a moon bag, but go check out if you can get something there.
- [33:41]
Rand
So magic Eden, did you say it was today? I'm so not.
- [33:44]
Robbie Young
Yeah, it happened. It happened like two hours ago. It's a claim so you've got to get their app or whatever but it's like five bucks and I'm seeing a lot of people who got over a thousand tokens. I've seen some flashes of like $80,000 airdrops even at this price. So if you've been playing with NFTs over there, you might get something.
- [34:03]
Rand
Got it. So I mean just before we, before we wrap up, circling back to the market. Yeah. Now we're below 96,000 it seems like certainly Rand Storm lawyer Do you guys agree when they'll get this that there could be a larger correction happening here? Anyone think that we just rocket right here up to you know, 110000 because that would be the thing that nobody expected seemingly brand, is there any bullish case that this flies from here? I mean I know you'd get your face ripped.
- [34:32]
Dave
I mean, I mean you know, just let the market correct. I mean for God's sake, like let's just. You stop trying to rush it. Let the market correct. We've had exuberance. We always get a correction pre the inauguration. We haven't had a correction yet. Just let the market correct and use this as an opportunity. I've been screaming to try and get into 30% cash for a long time now. Use this as an opportunity to if you're in cash, use this as an opportunity to re juggle your portfolio. Right. So yeah, that's pretty much what I would be what I'd be doing now. Just don't make any decisions now. Have a list ready when the reason why I said don't make any decision now. I think volatility breeds bad decision making. You're not insane mind. You know you want to make investment decisions or trading decisions. Insane mind. You're not insane mind. Now when you know if you're panicking about your leverage or if you're panicking about your positions, chill, make a list, have a thesis. And then when the, when the fear and greed drops, execute and be clinical about it.
- [35:36]
Rand
Storm, what do you think before we wrap?
- [35:38]
E
Yeah man, I think I agree with everything that that Ran said. Sounds like we trade very similar. I like to counter trade general market sentiment. And so you know, when the market feels overly euphoric, that's when I'm going to look for technical shorts and when it feels overly fearful that's when I'm going to look for technical longs, I think the market is extremely kind of inflated in the short term. I think we had a massive pump, everyone got super euphoric. And so I think it's only natural that we get some sort of a shorter term correction. Like I said, down to 75, 80k ish range is what I would suggest.
- [36:14]
Dave
That's the CME gap. That would close the CME gap. Now, I mean all CME gaps, not all, but most CME gaps eventually get closed. They don't have to get closed immediately though. So I mean it can close at the end of the cycle, but I mean ultimately the CME gap is going to be closed. I'd rather have it closed now so we can just move on and go up again.
- [36:29]
E
I agree. Yeah, I believe that CB gaps, I think the specific number is about 77, 300, but I also have that marked out.
- [36:38]
Dave
Yes, I think we saw it. Sounds like we're trading on the same strategy. But again I'm not, to be honest, I'm not looking at price. I couldn't give a about price. I switch off the price now and I watch one chart and it's the fear and greed chart and I want to see a correction of 50 points. So if I look at where we started on the fear and grief, let me just quickly call up the chart. So let me give you some data points just so you understand. So if I look at previous corrections from the previous market, if I look at 2020, we went from the highs of 2020 where the fear and greed was at 1993 and then in the corrections we went down to 38 and 40. So we had about a 50 point correction in fear and greed. And that was the end of the shakeout and we continued. So generally you're looking for about a 40 point to start buying. You want a 40 point drop in fear and greed. So let me give you perspective. The high of this Cycle was at 90. Sorry, just getting my cursor onto right thing here. It was about 92, 91, 92. And we are back now at 78. So there's still like, we're still not even halfway through the correction. We're like for me it's just switch off your prices now. Prices don't matter. Shakeout is a shakeout of emotion. And if it's a shakeout of emotion, wait for 40 points dip in the fear and greed before you start buying.
- [38:09]
Rand
If that makes sense. All right guys, we're gonna go ahead and wrap, give everybody on stage a follow ran. It's a much better show when you're here, buddy. It was really nice to have you today, especially when we're talking markets. It now we just got to use back on somehow.
- [38:24]
Dave
Thank you, sir.
- [38:25]
Rand
All right, that's all we got, guys. We'll be back tomorrow at 10:15aM Eastern Standard Time. Have a great day. Bye.