Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets

Episode: Crypto Bulls Are Giving Up, Is Bitcoin In Danger? | Macro Monday
Release Date: February 17, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guest Speakers: Noel Atchison (guest host), Mike McClone, Dave Weisberger, Lawrence Leopard

Introduction

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker, alongside guest host Noel Atchison, delves deep into the current economic landscape and its implications for the cryptocurrency market. The discussion navigates through recent macroeconomic data, the turmoil in the crypto space, regulatory challenges, and political dynamics shaping the future of Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Macro Economic Overview

Noel Atchison kicks off the episode by highlighting the concerning macroeconomic indicators:

• Retail Sales Decline: Retail sales figures have dipped significantly, falling below expectations.
• Rising CPI: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has surged, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
• Tariffs and Layoffs: Ongoing debates around tariffs and increasing layoffs contribute to economic uncertainty.

Mike McClone elaborates on these points, emphasizing the risk of transitioning towards deflation:

“Retail sales are hovering near zero inflation adjusted. If you overlay that with what's happening with the wealth competition... it's a bad tilt.”
(03:14)

He presents data on commodities, particularly focusing on copper:

“Copper on the CME last week had a major spike. Every time that the last time was similar as last year it peaked. It's a sign of what's happening globally.”
(04:22)

Lawrence Leopard introduces his recently published book, The Big Print, discussing the broken monetary system and the necessity for reform to protect against worsening inflation:

“The monetary system is broken and we need to fix it... suggest ways that investors can protect themselves from the inflation which I think is going to get worse.”
(02:04)

Crypto Market Sentiments

The panel discusses the prevailing gloom in the cryptocurrency market, particularly the waning enthusiasm among crypto bulls.

Mike McClone points out the oversupply in the crypto market:

“There are 11.2 million cryptos listed on CoinMarketCap.com. There's just too much supply in the space.”
(06:00)

He warns of speculative excesses and compares the current crypto bubble to the dot-com bubble:

“This is extreme stuff. This is as bad as the dot com bubble. And that's why tilting over to gold.”
(25:36)

Lawrence Leopard echoes these sentiments, expressing skepticism about the sustainability of meme coins and their impact on Bitcoin:

“All these other coins are, you know, proof of stake, not proof of work. They're just gambling tokens and... they hurt Bitcoin a lot.”
(20:37)

Regulation and Meme Coins

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the regulatory landscape for meme coins and the broader crypto market.

Noel Atchison critiques the rampant fraud within the meme coin sector, likening it to gambling:

“Meme coins are essentially lottery tickets. They are trying to buy the next Shiba Inu... the entire category... a lottery.”
(15:24)

Scott Melker emphasizes the necessity for comprehensive crypto regulations:

“Insider trading is fraud and sniping is a type of fraud as well... crypto and casinos do have rules.”
(16:45)

Lawrence Leopard supports the need for stringent regulations, arguing that while Bitcoin stands out as a legitimate digital asset, other coins lack substance:

“Bitcoin is digital gold... all these other coins are gambling tokens and should be heavily regulated or shut down.”
(20:37)

Political Factors and Economic Policy

The episode delves into the impact of political decisions, particularly those related to tariffs and government spending, on the economy and crypto markets.

Mike McClone discusses the shift in US trade policies under the current administration:

“The US has been exporting wealth to the rest of the world for decades. That's stopping. That's shifting backwards.”
(38:33)

Noel Atchison highlights the inefficiencies in the US manufacturing sector and the challenges in reshoring:

“Building in the US is dramatically more expensive... almost impossible to build factories at anything close to the cost that it's done in Mexico or China.”
(44:13)

Lawrence Leopard forecasts increased government intervention to manage the debt, potentially leading to gold revaluation:

“They’re going to pass a debt increase... think they're probably using tariffs to get foreigners to buy bonds.”
(52:38)

Future Predictions and Market Outlook

The panelists offer contrasting views on the future of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, hinging on macroeconomic trends and regulatory interventions.

Mike McClone anticipates a significant correction in the crypto market:

“Bitcoin might not get down as much, but we have not even started the purge. Shiba Inu and Doge... have to lop off zeros.”
(25:36)

He warns that Bitcoin's current valuation is unsustainable and may face downward pressure if major thresholds are breached:

“Bitcoin meets the major threshold at a hundred thousand dollars. If it doesn’t, everything trickles down.”
(28:33)

Lawrence Leopard remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, likening it to digital gold:

“Bitcoin goes down in that instance. But ultimately, it benefits from Gresham's law, as does gold.”
(34:02)

Noel Atchison emphasizes the potential for institutional adoption as regulators impose stricter rules:

“All of Wall Street is going to be unleashed to offer crypto and most importantly Bitcoin... allowing the unlock to finally happen.”
(56:00)

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a consensus that the economic and regulatory landscape is fraught with uncertainty, significantly impacting the crypto market. The interplay between rising inflation, potential deflationary trends, and political maneuvers creates a volatile environment for Bitcoin and other digital assets. While some panelists foresee a bearish outlook with substantial corrections, others highlight the potential for institutional adoption and long-term growth anchored by Bitcoin's foundational strengths.

Scott Melker encapsulates the episode's essence:

“Bitcoin could shoot up to 150 or it could come crashing down to 60. It very much depends on what the stock market's going to do. We don't really know.”
(57:20)

Key Takeaways

• Macro Indicators: Rising CPI and declining retail sales signal economic instability, potentially leading to deflationary pressures.
• Crypto Oversupply: The proliferation of meme coins dilutes the market, increasing the risk of speculative bubbles akin to the dot-com era.
• Regulatory Shifts: Enhanced regulation is imminent, targeting fraudulent practices in the crypto space, which could cleanse the market but also suppress speculative assets.
• Political Influence: Trade policies and government spending are pivotal in shaping economic conditions, directly affecting asset valuations and investor sentiment.
• Bitcoin's Future: While Bitcoin faces short-term volatility and regulatory challenges, its long-term positioning as digital gold remains strong, contingent on broader economic trends and institutional adoption.

Notable Quotes

• Lawrence Leopard [02:04]:
  “The monetary system is broken and we need to fix it... suggest ways that investors can protect themselves from the inflation which I think is going to get worse.”

• Mike McClone [03:14]:
  “Retail sales are hovering near zero inflation adjusted. If you overlay that with what's happening with the wealth competition... it's a bad tilt.”

• Noel Atchison [15:24]:
  “Meme coins are essentially lottery tickets. They are trying to buy the next Shiba Inu... the entire category... a lottery.”

• Scott Melker [25:36]:
  “This is extreme stuff. This is as bad as the dot com bubble. And that's why tilting over to gold.”

• Lawrence Leopard [34:02]:
  “Bitcoin goes down in that instance. But ultimately, it benefits from Gresham's law, as does gold.”

• Noel Atchison [56:00]:
  “All of Wall Street is going to be unleashed to offer crypto and most importantly Bitcoin... allowing the unlock to finally happen.”

Final Thoughts

This episode paints a complex picture of the intersection between macroeconomic forces, regulatory frameworks, and the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market. As the panelists navigate through these intricate topics, it becomes evident that Bitcoin's trajectory is intrinsically linked to broader economic and political developments. Investors and enthusiasts alike are encouraged to stay informed and cautious amid these uncertain times.