Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets Episode Title: Everyone Wants Bitcoin - So Why Isn’t It Moving? | Macro Monday
Release Date: June 9, 2025
Host/Author: Scott Melker
Guest Speakers: Noelle Acheson, Mike, Dave, James

Introduction

Hosted by Noelle Acheson in place of Scott Melker, this episode delves deep into the current state of Bitcoin, macroeconomic trends, and their interplay with global financial markets.

Bloomberg Economics Insights

Timestamp: [00:55] - [04:05]

Mike kicked off the discussion by sharing insights from Bloomberg Economics, highlighting deflationary trends despite rising tariffs. Key points include:

• CPI Expectations: Anna Wong forecasts lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, with headliners around 0.1% and core CPI at 0.17% (MM:01:30).
• Deflationary Forces in China: Significant drops in airfares and recreational prices in China indicate increasing deflationary pressures (MM:02:15).
• FX and Swiss Deflation: Audrey Child Freeman points out deflationary risks brewing in Switzerland, though Mike notes these are Bloomberg’s perspectives, not his own.
• S&P 500 Vulnerability: Gina Martin Adams highlights that the S&P 500 remains vulnerable, with 52 stocks accounting for the majority of returns, marking the most concentrated period since the nifty 50s (MM:03:10).
• Interest Rates and Yield Curves: Ira Jersey discusses range-bound interest rates and low inflation expectations, mentioning the upcoming 30-year bond auction and its implications for the yield curve (MM:03:45).

Notable Quote:

"There's so much to talk about. But before we dive in, do please hit the subscribe button so it'll be easier for you to find new shows." — Noelle Acheson [00:18]

Deflation vs. Monetary Inflation

Timestamp: [07:18] - [28:44]

Dave provides a comprehensive analysis of deflationary trends versus monetary inflation:

• Technological Deflation: Advances in technology, particularly AI, are driving down prices for certain goods, but this doesn't negate the overall monetary inflation fueled by government deficits (MM:07:53).
• Bitcoin vs. Gold: Dave argues that Bitcoin, despite its volatility, is unlikely to replace gold in the near term. He emphasizes gold’s historical role as a store of value and its current bullish trend compared to Bitcoin (MM:13:46).
• Stock Market and Debt: Highlighting the exorbitant valuation of the S&P 500 relative to GDP and global markets, Dave warns of a potential 10% decline driven by overvaluation and massive debt (MM:17:57).
• Volatility Metrics: Introduction of the Bitcoin VIX (BVIV) and its current low levels compared to the S&P 500 VIX, suggesting a period of equilibrium that could precede significant price movements (MM:14:09).

Notable Quotes:

"In a world where every government is running deficits and they're constantly plowing money in, that there could be deflation is foolish." — Dave [07:53]

"There's always a key trigger for gold and I still stick with that bias." — Mike [03:50]

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions

Timestamp: [19:21] - [35:00]

The discussion shifts to recent geopolitical events and their impact on financial markets:

• Bromance Breakup in D.C.: An unexpected political fallout is discussed, highlighting the ineffectiveness of current deficit reduction strategies and the growing tribalism in Congress (MM:19:29).
• Debt Limit and Fiscal Policy: James elaborates on the symbolic nature of the debt limit and its implications for investor confidence, emphasizing how removing the debt limit could lead to unchecked spending and diminished market confidence (MM:22:52).
• Market Implications: Concerns about bond auctions, specifically the 30-year and 10-year treasuries, and their potential to signal a tightening Fed environment that adversely affects risk assets like Bitcoin and gold (MM:24:36).

Notable Quote:

"Humans are be human as Scott always says. And that's where I don't know what's going to take it to stop." — Mike [28:23]

Bitcoin Volatility and Market Dynamics

Timestamp: [04:05] - [18:17]

The speakers delve into Bitcoin's current market behavior:

• Volatility Comparison: Dave and Mike discuss Bitcoin's lower volatility compared to the S&P 500, using metrics like the Bitcoin VIX to illustrate the current stable trading range (MM:14:34).
• Options Trading: James explains the asymmetric volatility of Bitcoin, where rallies can be as explosive as falls, affecting options trading dynamics and potential investment strategies (MM:15:17).
• Strategic Positioning: Mike suggests that the current low volatility period is an opportune time to buy call spreads or calls on Bitcoin, aligning with strategic trading based on Delta and Gamma (MM:17:57).

Notable Quote:

"Bitcoin's volatility is from a ratio of the Bitcoin VIX to the S and P VIX would show the S and P VIX much higher." — Dave [14:34]

Institutional Moves and Tokenization

Timestamp: [33:32] - [58:22]

The conversation shifts to institutional involvement in cryptocurrencies and the future of financial markets:

• Bitcoin Treasuries: Dave expresses optimism about the increasing number of companies holding Bitcoin as part of their treasuries, citing MicroStrategy as a model for sustainable Bitcoin investment (MM:33:32).
• Tokenization of Assets: James and Dave discuss the potential of tokenizing real assets on-chain, enabling seamless buying, selling, and shorting through stablecoins and enhanced financial infrastructure (MM:55:52).
• JP Morgan and USDC: A significant highlight is JP Morgan's move to offer Bitcoin services, alongside Circle's valuation surge, underscoring the growing institutional embrace of stablecoins and tokenization (MM:52:37).

Notable Quotes:

"Tokenization is awesome to be able to track assets next to treasuries, next equities on chain." — Mike [55:52]

"USDC is a massive beneficiary of this. I mean, I wish we had gotten some on the, on the IPO of course only the largest hedge funds in the world and, and pension and endowments got this thing." — James [52:37]

The Future of the Dollar and Stablecoins

Timestamp: [43:05] - [58:22]

Mike and Dave explore the trajectory of the US dollar amidst rising deficits and the advent of stablecoins:

• Dollar Decline: Mike connects the stability of the US stock market to the weakening dollar, suggesting that a 10% decline in the S&P 500 could exert deflationary pressure on the dollar (MM:45:44).
• Stablecoin Integration: The integration of stablecoins like USDC into traditional financial systems is seen as a pivotal development, facilitating instant transactions and potentially reducing reliance on traditional banking inefficiencies (MM:58:22).
• Monetary Policy Implications: Dave discusses the broader implications of global fiscal deficits on the dollar, emphasizing that all major currencies are facing similar issues, which could lead to a collective devaluation (MM:48:58).

Notable Quotes:

"The dollar is related. It's already kind of leaning downward like gold's leaning upward." — Mike [45:44]

"This whole theater that goes on but they're saying the quiet part out loud now Noel." — Dave [48:58]

Risks and Future Outlook

Timestamp: [33:39] - [58:22]

The panel addresses potential risks and future scenarios in the crypto market:

• Leverage Risks: Dave warns of potential risks associated with increased leverage, drawing parallels to past issues like the GBTC trade. However, he notes that current leverage in the crypto system is significantly lower (MM:34:54).
• Market Opacity: James and Dave highlight the dangers of opaque markets, such as private equity and crypto treasuries, which lack transparency and could breed systemic risks (MM:33:39).
• Institutional Confidence: Despite short-term volatility, the speakers express cautious optimism about the long-term integration of cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial systems, provided that regulatory frameworks evolve to support transparency and stability (MM:54:42).

Notable Quotes:

"There's always a key trigger for gold and I still stick with that bias." — Mike [25:17]

"The CHICKens come home to roost on that." — Dave [35:00]

Conclusion

Noelle wraps up the episode by acknowledging the extensive discussion and hinting at the profound implications of the topics covered, particularly the intersection of Bitcoin's movement with broader economic forces.

Notable Quote:

"And I am going to spend the rest of the day enjoying an image Dave has planted in my head, which is that of pitchforks in front of Central Bank." — Noelle Acheson [58:22]

Key Takeaways

1. Deflationary Pressures Amidst Monetary Inflation: Technological advancements are driving deflation in specific sectors, but overall monetary inflation remains a significant force due to persistent government deficits.
2. Bitcoin's Strategic Position: Despite its volatility, Bitcoin presents strategic investment opportunities during periods of low volatility, though gold remains a more traditional and stable store of value.
3. Institutional Embrace and Tokenization: Increasing participation from major financial institutions and the tokenization of assets signal a deeper integration of cryptocurrencies into the global financial system.
4. Risks of Leverage and Market Opacity: While current leverage in the crypto market is low, future increases could pose systemic risks, especially in opaque markets like private equity and institutional crypto treasuries.
5. Dollar's Trajectory and Stablecoins: The weakening dollar, exacerbated by rising deficits, coupled with the rise of stablecoins, could reshape the landscape of global finance and transactional systems.

This episode offers a comprehensive analysis of the current state of Bitcoin within the broader macroeconomic context, providing listeners with valuable insights into potential future trends and investment strategies.