Loading summary
Transcript96 lines
- [00:00]
A
Well, good morning, everyone. It is Monday, January 19th. Welcome to Crypto Town Hall. It's a holiday here in the US But I guess people are still interested in talking. Markets are, are closed in the United States today. Futures are down. People are, everyone's talking about Trump deciding, you know, writing letters about Greenland and, you know, there's fears over NATO, there's talks about, you know, on the macro side, there's talks about Canada and China, etc. Etc. Meanwhile, Bitcoin sold off pretty much exactly what the futures did. Still sitting around 92 and a half, which is, you know, below it, well within the recent range. We saw record inflows last week as the crypto world was still mostly selling. And that's where we're at, you know, lots of interesting stuff going on. Mostly, you know, mostly fourth turning things. I mean, I don't almost don't have. It's almost impossible to read the news these days without more and more division in this country. And it is. It's just getting kind of insane. I mean, you know, Gary, I see you up here. I saw you were on a space this morning talking about New York and real estate. I don't know how the real estate market in New York survives the next four years of the policies they're looking to do unless people really believe there isn't going to be one. But, you know, hey, you know, you know, what the hell, we got a lot of uncertainty out there. Anybody care about any of this stuff? I mean, meanwhile, at the same time, the one thing that is a consistent is we saw a little rally over 94,000, got to 96, it reversed this weekend. And guess what, you know, $800 million of liquidations in the crypto space. So, you know, look, leverage and animal spirits are alive and well. Every time people buy these breakouts, they get their face pounded. And we'll see, you know, at some point when that doesn't happen, when there is no leverage on the breakout, that's when we'll actually break out. But, you know, that's what. That's. That's where the world is. Anybody, Anybody have any other feelings this morning, you know, or we want to talk about news bits?
- [02:06]
B
I wish I had something intelligent to say about this crazy world, Dave, but it's just a giant shock. I'm a Canadian and waking up to reading that we're thinking about sending troops to Greenland to defend it. And the headlines don't say from who, but like, it's just, it's so, it's surreal.
- [02:25]
C
Right?
- [02:25]
A
Well, you, you're also, you guys are also, you know, cozying up to China. You know, so it's like, okay, well cool. You know, it's, it is what it is. I mean, but, but it is important. As a Canadian, you, you, you understand that the reason the Greenland story is such a big deal is, is because effectively the US looks at, at, at China at controlling all of the world's rare earth minerals. And Greenland has an enormous unproven but you know, enormous rare earth deposits. And that's what it's all about. I mean, you know, I don't, I don't see any other way of looking at this is, is other than geopolitical. Yeah, right.
- [03:04]
B
Yeah, I, I don't have that much to add to what, to what you're saying. It's, it's a crazy, crazy world. Mad Ma. Mad, mad world. And, and it's hard to make sense of it right now.
- [03:17]
A
Well, I mean look, the one thing that it is happening and is that now that this is Smelter town hall is silver is pushing up right up against 94 bucks. And you know, pretty much all the, the, the traders out there keep saying, hey, you know, it's, it, you know, when it, when silver hit 80, the CME raised margin requirements, it dropped to 70. And they say ah, okay, we pricked the bubble. It's over. I don't know now what do you say when it's over 90 and now pushing toward 94, clearly heading towards, towards 100. You know, it, it's, there's some signals there now. There's, there's. The thing about, about silver is it's not just a monetary metal. In fact, most of it is industrial demand, particularly batteries, defense systems and, and solar panels, etc. But you know, when you see the US Mint charging, I mean, I forgot what it went to. I don't know. Mark, do you, I don't know if you, you might know as you have your hand up, but I think it was somewhere around you know, 50, 60 premium over spot to buy Silver Eagle, something like that. Yeah, it's like 183 or 176 or something crazy. Right? And so, you know, it's like what kind of person who is paying that? I mean obviously they're either doing it because they're hoping no one for no one to buy it because they don't have anything to sell, but you still have people willing to pay that premium. That's just, that's just nuts. Unless, unless the market is just way underpriced here. It's just, it's a crazy signal. Anyway. Mark, you had your hand up before I went down the silver rabbit hole.
- [04:50]
D
Yeah, no, the silver is. Silver is so variable, you know, as you said, versus, versus gold and it has its own signal. It's a bit more mercurial because of the industrial elements that you mentioned and it's a smaller market. So it, you know, the one thing I wanted to talk about or just mention if I had the opportunity since you brought silver up is I think it is a PSA that I saw in relevant repeating to people not in the markets. If you have silver and you've experienced a 200% move in the last year, you know. Yeah. And you've mentioned this, Dave. If it goes to the 30 multiple of, you know, gold, if it compresses to a 30x price multiple to gold like it did in 2012 or 11, then it's at 150, I think. So it has up, it has upside. But man, I have much more confidence in the slow roll of gold and bitcoin than I do of, of silver. And that speaks to more my monetary, you know, background than the, than the industrial use. So silver is a lot of vectors and the mint is another one. Not all. I don't believe the mint went to. I thought it just kind of tried to play catch up. Is it one mint or all the mint skies that did this? Is it only one US Mint? Because I thought that there were a couple of. Of iterations of that out there.
- [06:29]
A
Yeah, I mean you can buy silver eagles from, you know, secondary sources. Yeah. For example, I guess random, you know, uncirculated ones are 106.59. So it's only a 10. A little bit more like 15 premium right now. But the US Mint basically is. It's the US Mint is the problem. Yeah, I'm looking right now. US Mint Silver Eagles price. So where are we right now at this instant? The official US Mint shop coins. Let's all find out together. Of course. We want me to sign up for a mailing list. Screw that. Yeah, I'm trying. They want to do everything right. You know, we. I just want American Eagle coin coins. Here we go. Here we go. So, yes, American Eagle Silver, 1 oz 2025 Silver Proof Coin, $173. American Eagle 20241 oz Silver Uncirculated Coin, $169. Right on the official print. On the official page.
- [07:32]
D
Well, yeah, so that is. And, and the. They probably sold it slight premiums before maybe, but definitely not. Not this.
- [07:40]
C
Yeah.
- [07:41]
E
So That's.
- [07:42]
D
This is.
- [07:42]
A
We don't have enough silver to print this stuff. We don't want you to buy it from us until we can catch up. Yeah, because anyone who's buying it, I mean, either that or the American government is just pocketing money from stupidity, right? You. Because you can buy the silver on the secondary.
- [07:57]
D
They do that with lottery tickets, Dave. So why not go into the precious metal markets?
- [08:02]
A
Yeah, I. I know. I'm So. I guess that's where you need Gensler, you know, to someone like him to regulate the. The US's own.
- [08:08]
D
God, we need him. Where is he?
- [08:12]
A
Yeah, but. I mean, but all kidding aside, you know, you. You said you group gold and bitcoin together. I mean, you know, bitcoin is still stuck in its trading range, and it's not trading like either of these things right now until it, until it does.
- [08:23]
D
Right.
- [08:24]
A
And, you know, the, the as long as, as the market keeps going like this, it's. It's one of those things that people in the crypto world are like, I don't know, giving up, despondent again. You know, we got back to fear again, you know, Tomer, I mean, you know, you're in the space. I mean, how do you feel the sentiment is.
- [08:41]
B
Well, if you don't, I have a question about silver. Like, I. I was shocked. A friend called me up on the weekend. He wanted to know about the space, what he needs to know about stable coins and gold. And I, And I asked him, how, you know, how much of the world's gold do you think is concentrated? Because he was worried about concentration of holdings of bitcoin and ibit. I said, how much of the world's gold do you think is held by Fort Knox? He guessed 5%, 6%. Turned out it's 56%. So gold is very centralized because I guess it was. It was seized or confiscated with the 6102. And then during World War II, all them. All the gold from foreign nations got deposited for safekeeping with the United States, and they've kept it very safe by not returning it ever. I wonder, where is all the silk? Like, are there huge stockpiles of silver kept somewhere, and are they in jeopardy of being needed for emergency purposes because there's such a shortage of silver? So there's that. I'm sorry for not answering your question. It's just, I still want to know.
- [09:49]
A
It's fine. I don't know where that 56 comes from. Fort Knox is like between 2 and 3% of US holdings now. The you how much are held in depository vaults that are controlled or accessible by the US Government? That's a different question. I don't know the answer. You know, it's like, because some of that like GLD is, is the largest gold etf. So hold on a minute. Let's just do that.
- [10:14]
E
While you're pulling that update. Did we ever get the, the audit of Fort Knox under, under Doge.
- [10:20]
A
Stop. Yeah, we got the audit of Fort Knox in the same place as we got the Epstein files and stuff. The same place we got everything else. The answer is no. We have no freaking idea what's actually there. And it's that and of itself is, is, is pretty interesting.
- [10:36]
D
GLD is about 150 billion, I think. Dave.
- [10:41]
A
Yeah, I was just looking. So. Right. So the US official 78 billion. Yeah, it's the largest central bank, so. Well, basically central banks hold about 20% of all the mine gold. That's the important thing. And then GLD is another big piece of it. Another big piece of it. I mean, arguably gold is slightly more centralized than bitcoin is, but not hugely so, I mean, keep in mind that there's a lot of gold in jewelry, a lot of gold in collector's hands. I mean, yeah, I mean, the, the 6102 thing happened, but even there it excluded jewelry and excluded collectible coins, which is why so many, so much gold got raided. I know because, you know, I used to collect. So, you know, before I got into bitcoin, I had, you know, I had a lot of stuff in, in gold. Unfortunately, I sold bitcoin for gold and I did okay. I mean, it's still probably up from when I did it. Well, it is definitely up from when I did it, but you know, people who trade bitcoin and gold back and forth have probably done better, but anyway, you know, so, so be it. But I don't know if that answers your question, Tomer. I think that from a centralization point of view, so be it. You know, it is the, the difference is the central banks own gold, they don't own bitcoin. And the most important gold stat is that they own more gold than they own U.S. treasuries. Dan. I, I, you see a new hand, Tomer. And, and Mark, I think your hands are phantom, but you guys got to.
- [12:09]
B
Tell me, no, my hand isn't up. So let someone else answer and then we can.
- [12:13]
A
Hey you guys. Morning. I just want to say I, I heard a statistic. It might not be true, but I heard a statistic that the majority of gold that is held is held in like Indian housewives. Have you heard that stuff before? Like an absurd amount is Indian housewives. Well, it is, it is a large, it is non trivial the Indian population. I mean every Diwali, that's what you give for investment. I mean India is, is definitely from a jewelry perspective, number one. I don't know if it's how, what the percentage is. I mean, I guess we could all look it up, we could grock it or whatever and, and try to figure it out. But it's non trivial. That is, that is for sure. And you know, people in the gold trading markets do take advantage and understand what's going on with Diwali every year as they, as they give gifts for savings. So it is non trivial. So anyway, do you guys see that myse is looking to move to 24 hour trading with. Yeah, that was, that was going to be the one I was going to go to next. I. A very interesting deal. Yeah. The story is that they're going to run a parallel stock exchange that runs totally on blockchain rails, which, and which of course the only way they can do that is if the SEC lets them. But what's fascinating, and this is what's interesting and I'm curious, it's too bad we don't have the lawyers up here. But evidently the biggest stumbling block in the quote Clarity act, this whole food fight that's going on was that the act wouldn't allow the SEC to create new rules for digital securities or crypto securities. But the New York Stock Exchange knows full well that of course you need new rules because you can't require transfer agents for something that's a bear asset. There's a lot of different rules. I mean I did a post last week with five of them, but you probably could go through and find dozens. So obviously the New York Stock Exchange is working with Paul Atkins and his SEC looking for exemptive relief to be able to do this. And they're willing to make the bet that no rule like that will get passed by Congress and, or they don't think that there's much chance that a president aocs SEC will stop it if once it goes live. To me that's a very big deal. And I'm curious, I mean, you brought it up. I mean, what do you think? Does that matter? I think it matters a lot from an entrepreneurial point of view if you're trying to be in that space. Because once the New York Stock Exchange is doing it, it's Pretty clear that you're not going to get prosecuted. Now, of course, at the same time, New York Stock Exchange is going to have a huge advantage because that's of course what happens, right? The biggest players get the biggest advantages from government. I'm sure you love that, right, Adam?
- [15:00]
E
I'll, I'll jump in on you, Dave. The, my question is, are, are they just going to kind of go forward with it and let the regulations catch up? Is that the, is that your general feeling right now is they're just going to kind of, I don't know what you'd call it, Uber it and just kind of push in and then hope the, or just press so fast that, that they hope they're regulated? It doesn't seem like that would be the thing they would do. But is that the, is that the, the idea that's happening kind of like Robin Hood did you know, tokenizing some stocks, Is that your, the current feeling?
- [15:30]
A
I, I don't know. But I'll tell you what, in a week I'll have a much better idea since I'm having dinner with some people, you know, that are right in the middle of this a week from tonight and I'll probably have a pretty good sense of what's going on. But my best guess with knowing nothing, and I repeat, I know nothing, is that because I have a more than, more than a small amount of experience in how this stuff works is that they probably put together a full proposal and they're talking to the staff at the SEC about what sort of exemptive relief they need from which rules that effectively are unworkable for that vision and they want to move ahead. I mean, remember it wasn't all that long ago, because Scott talked about it, that Paul Atkins said, hey, we are going to see everything in the financial world go on chain within a year or two. Well, in order for that to happen, he needed to find a willing large player to create an on chain based world. So this is soup to nuts. This is the registrars, everything. And so, you know, Caitlin Long made the point this morning, which I thought was really smart and she usually is that, that states like, you know, like Delaware doesn't have any way for doing it. So some states are going to need, some state is going to need to make a set of rules for on chain securities that could work with this and the companies that are going to want to participate in it are going to have to register in that state or states that allow that. And so there's a lot of wood to chop. But my assessment is that if you're a company looking to raise capital, you want to tack into 247 trading, that this is a, a, this, this will be the place that you will do so. So I would imagine, for example, that they're trying to go after companies such as Galaxy, for example, and I haven't heard seen Novogratz say a damn thing about it. But I think that's, that, that's the play is to try to attract newer companies that want the 247 trading to be native, that want on demand settlement, etc. Etc. I don't know if that answers your question, but this is a, I'm guessing now, right. And, and I hate to guess, but it seems like an educated guess.
- [17:45]
E
Yeah, it feels directionally.
- [17:46]
A
Right.
- [17:47]
E
I guess we'll see. I, I mean, I don't know, you know, we've already seen it with Robin Hood, you know, tokenizing individual stocks, you know, when, when kind of what I've read and maybe I've, you know, maybe I missed something, but it felt like they were just kind of doing it. What was really backing it was very much a trust me, bro kind of situation, which, you know, I don't know, you know, I don't know where it's going to go with that, but it feels like Coinbase, Robin Hood will push into it and, but there's an opportunity for a bigger player to kind of grab the entire space, if possible.
- [18:21]
A
Yeah, I don't know about grab the entire space, but certainly set the ground rules for the space that gives them an advantage. I mean, that's generally what happens with these things. But what matters from, from a perspective, from the perspective of people who are investing in crypto assets, is what does this mean for the protocols that are going to be underneath it? What does this mean for the ability to trade between this stuff? I mean, remember right now, crypto is its own place, right? But when you can start trading shares and Bitcoin and Ethereum and Solana and you know, name that meme, Coin or whatever, on the same platform, back and forth from with stocks on a Sunday, that's a very big deal. Right? And so to me, that's what this is foreshadowing. Eventually, I think that's exactly the way the world goes. And so Coinbase is counting on the fact that it has First Mover within crypto and the traditional financial players are saying, well, wait a minute, the technology is not that big of a deal. They can handle that. Let's just get, let the regulators take the shackles off. So we can compete. And I think that's what you're going to see at the end of the day from an investment point of view, value is going to determine what people invest in. But right now there's, it, there's a lot of difficulty and there's a lot of friction and it's eliminating that friction is what matters. Rich, I see your hand up.
- [19:40]
F
Interesting topic this. In the short term, I think it's probably a negative for most altcoins. I mean they're struggling at best. You know, as it is right now. People that are on chain are moving to, you know, Barbit has just launched, you know, some tradfire exposure on CFDs. You know, so irrespective of the underlying technology, you know, we always say is this good for blockchain and some exposure and that people invariably probably not going to realize what's powering it. But you know, for the sector, for crypto in general, I think, you know, for, you know, look at, look at what's going on right now. You're wanting people to, people are moving across. You know, I know more people trading metals right now that know nothing about metals as a result of what's going on and looking at things like AI stocks, you know. So I think in the short term, net negative for altcoins, man, unfortunately.
- [20:34]
B
Wouldn'T you say? Also in the long term because the, the, there's all this competition coming for trading instruments on various platforms and the regular date, you know, and right now the stock markets for example, although they trade on a traditional database and they have many middlemen, it's not technology that's preventing them, it's regulations. It's preventing them. And the regulations are also preventing them to I guess to some degree from, are preventing altcoins from being able to wrap the things that are regulated and trade and approved by the SEC and other regulators worldwide to trade. So it seems hard to see how this is particularly good for it. It's just turning everybody else into a commodity database, all the, all the altcoins into a commodity database that's trying to act as less frictioned implementation than a centralized database. And there may be some value there, but the barriers to entry seem actually pretty low for people wanting to trade things that have real world value in the sense of stocks that represent ownership stakes in real world businesses and all the stuff that's been built in. Crypto is like interesting proof of concept to demonstrate whether or not people can do so in a decentralized 247 manner with reliability and uptime. But it but it's not where the value is going to be ultimately. Like there's just a tremendous amount of speculative value, speculative trading value. And, and meme coins have like no, no fundamental value whatsoever. So, and, and they're what's driving the u utilization of many of these platforms. So I just, I, I, I don't think that altcoins in general, like as a, as a general space are going to make a lot of sense. There will be some things that will be the platform, but I don't know that you'll need to buy a token on them to, to trade them or if you do that's, you know, it's the equivalent of fees.
- [22:43]
A
Well, I mean, look, there's, let's, let's, let's break the world into three pieces. So memes are going to exist. They've always existed. It's just a question of crypto figured out a way to make it electronically tradable. So, you know, whether it's a Boo Boo or a Pokemon card or whatever. I mean, there's there, there is, there are, there are people who are going to trade that stuff. When you talk about altcoins, it really boils down to, if you're a founder, the thing that was the arbitrage that caused altcoins to go nuts and why all the VCs want to invest in altcoins was immediate liquidity. And that was a regulatory arbitrage. So that's going to end, that will end eventually. Liquidity is going to get equalized. You're going to have the ability to get it, they're going to speed up the process of getting liquidity in the securities world and you're not going to have that big arbitrage. But that doesn't mean there's no value in an altcoin platform that can derive economic benefit. The point is that you have to be able to pass it on. And there's value potentially in selling a revenue stream. There's value in owning a piece of the underlying technology that's facilitating stuff that's driving economic value. But it needs to equalize and you need to get that right. And a large part of what happened in crypto was people being able to get immediate liquidity. Whereas in equities it takes years, I mean literally years. And so, you know, that was, that was what was happening. So understand that reg arbitrage. Anyway, Gary, I see your hand up. You there, Gary. See you lifted the mic but I don't hear you now. I see you twice.
- [24:30]
D
He was pumping out some hundreds Earlier. So he's there.
- [24:35]
A
Yep. He disappeared and he'll come back. But yeah, I mean the whole immediate liquidity deal is something that has always been a regulatory arbitrage. The other arbitrage in defi are people trading and trying to not pay taxes, at least in the United States. Probably not going to be a winning strategy. It's not one that I would recommend to anybody ever. But you know, there are people who do that, but those are going to go away. That said, having the ability to be part of a protocol or owning a piece of it where the economic value of that protocol could be passed on to the owners. Well, no, that's real. The question is which ones are real, which ones aren't. And I've been talking about this, I talked about it last year. It's starting to happen. It's this year. I mean, you know, we'll see. I mean. But yeah, I mean if you look at the all coin markets today, they look kind of crappy, you know and I think that this news is, is definitely negative for the call it the premium that people pay for being in a market that nobody else can access and they can access immediately. Does that make sense? I mean Rich, I see you giving the hundreds.
- [25:42]
F
Yeah, I mean I. Who knows where this lands. I mean we've said this countless times on the show like I mean we could get rid of 95% of the tokens on you know, coin market cap and force, you know, founders to compete with real businesses. You know, so much of what goes on in crypto is, is just a money grab, a grift. You know, maybe it was a soft, soft target for easy cash.
- [26:11]
A
This space was downloaded via spacesdown.com visit to download your spaces today.
- [26:16]
F
I think the whole space is going to reflect over the last 18 months been a difficult cycle. VCs have even struggled. And crypto has a way of reinventing itself. I think it needs a good cleanse for many, many reasons. If you're talking about everything other than Bitcoin, I mean as it is, Bitcoin is still struggling to prove itself as a reserve currency or store of value, let alone what altcoins represent. I mean if you're looking at purely at the underlying tech like eth being the smart computer of the world, you know, who knows. But I, yeah I, I think that a lot needs to happen quite frankly. I mean I would be excited about being able to move on chain into traditional assets and to be able to use liquidity easily for you know, some kind of a project on crypto but yeah, I don't think it bodes well for a lot of altcoins, so to speak.
- [27:13]
A
So Gary, I got you back up here.
- [27:15]
C
Yeah, yeah. Let's see if this works. Is you guys can hear me.
- [27:19]
A
Yep, we hear you.
- [27:22]
C
Well, I was trying to build up on what Tomer was saying, which is like I, I agree, I agree with him on the alt market. You know, one of the big problems the alt market has is the, the founders all compete with each other and piss on each other every day. This thing with Garlinghouse and you know, Garlinghouse pping on Coinbase's attempt to get a proper crypto bill and then you got Cardano coming out smashing Brad. Now I actually think that some of this is justified. However, you don't see this in other industries, okay? You do not see big pharma Lily beating up moderna. Never. They don't piss on their own market. And for some reason bitcoin has yet to figure that out, or the crypto world has yet to figure that out. I think the token market is destroyed here, Absolutely destroyed. There are so many options to, if you want to access crypto, which like, I went to a trade show this weekend, Bitcoin day in Naples. This space is not growing, guys. It is most certainly not growing. I've been there three or four years in a row. Same people, the same genre of people, same discussions. And quite frankly, some of the stuff I heard there, I'm like, wow, you guys really don't want people like me in this space because it's still very right and wrong in this space. And, and you know, when, when financial advisors are helping investors make decisions, they, they don't have to fight an industry that's constantly pissing on each other saying, well, that product project doesn't work, that guy doesn't work. So I, I think that the enemy is within the crypto space. And with all the optionality, all the options I have to invent, like the stuff that the New York Stock Exchange and the Dallas exchange is going to do is going to go to 24, 7. People are going to be able to trade in and out of whatever they want. And I don't see the competitive advantage for a bunch of billionaire token holders who are trying to pump their stock to get liquidity, which, that's really what it seems like for almost every token I have seen, I've analyzed or looked at like I cannot control the supply, so I. Nor the incentives or the motivations by which the big founders unlock those coins. So for me and bitcoin suffering from this. Okay, we still have, you know, 2 or 3 million Bitcoin that have to get out of these old hands at 30 and $300. Until that happens, the incentives are a little perverted. Between the $90,000 holders and the $3,000 sub $3,000 holders that has to get some parity like spread between 3,000 and 90,000. One of these numbers have to change. Either the average cost of the low coins have to go up or you know, transfer to 90 grand or the 90,000. It's got to come down. Now I know which one I would prefer but quite frankly either one of them suits me. I just, I just think bitcoin needs a more level playing field between price on silver. Just finish my comments here because I was on a couple of spaces earlier this morning about Europe and, and house home ownership in New York and like it's really easy when you're, it's really easy to start protecting. I mean I heard stuff about Europe today. I'm like, wow, would anyone invest a dollar in Europe right now? Because I wouldn't. Where I'm headed to is I think America today is one of the safest places to make an investment. I mean truly one of the safest places to make an investment. And I can't imagine taking dollars to Brazil or taking dollars to the UK or Germany thinking that I'm going to get a great return on that investment. In fact, I have no protection on that investment whatsoever depending on what the anointed leaders decide or don't decide. So for me, what gold and silver are doing, they're just leading the way to hey, our system is really failing right now. And I've got to believe that bitcoin at some point if we can get out of our own way. And I do think there's been a tremendous amount of confusion for the last 10 years about what bitcoin is and what crypto is. I don't know what the price of bitcoin would be if we didn't have 40,000 tokens out there. I suspect it would be higher. So I'll just end with that. But I think this is a time game now. People just need to be more patient. We're expecting returns too quickly, I think. So I'll end there. Thank you guys.
- [32:44]
A
Well, I think that's a really good point. I mean I, I called this a time based capitulation. That's the way I've been referring to it. I still think we're there. You know, it's, you said A few things that are interesting. I mean in terms of, you know, Europe, I, I can't really comment. I mean this is, it's to me what's going on in the UK and I lived there for five and a half years in the 90s. It's, it's, I just find it sad. I mean, you know, what's actually happening there, it's the only way, only way to describe it, but on a bunch of levels, I mean as a free speech person who believes how important that is and you seeing when they did Brexit, they had a possibility and we in fact talked to AT Coinrants, we had talked to the British Chamber of Commerce and they were trying to attract crypto businesses and then their leadership shit all over crypto businesses. And so right hand, left hand, they didn't know what they were doing. And that's why London is in serious danger of losing its status. In London, people forget but London became the world's largest financial center on the back of the fact that the US was dumb and allowed them to run the euro dollar market. But you know, that's been fading ever since. And they're, you know, they have serious problems there. But you know, as far as the, the crypto world, I, I violently agree with you, Gary. I mean I think that it's the bitcoin use case. The bitcoin investment thesis is easy to explain to people and that's why you've seen inflows continue to increase. People buying it like Fort Knox. The US owns a lot of gold valued at $42. So that's 1/100. It's not that dissimilar to the same problem that you have in bitcoin. The difference is in bitcoin you have random people. You don't have. It's not governments, Governments are not going to sell. You know, although the British, the, the British government sold half their gold at $300. That was, I don't know if people know that, but that was in 19. Was it 98? I think it was. No, I forgot what year it was. I think it was 98. Gordon Brown. So it would have been early 2000s. Yeah, so you know, they sold at, at under, I think it was like 270 to 290. They sold half their gold reserves, arguably the dumbest trade in history. And by the way, I was one of the people saying it was on the dumbest trade in history when it was being done. So it took a bunch of years before it became obvious that it was that stupid. But Generally, it's not the way governments operate. Now, bitcoin holders are different. You need that distribution. You're right. And last year was a large part of it. It is not done. A huge start was made, but it's not done. And so, yeah, that's going to drive a lot of the future price appreciation. Will bitcoin become global sound money, yes or no? Well, if the answer is yes, its price is going to appreciate dramatically. Will bitcoin start to rival gold at some point when gold peaks it. Well, that's. That's the Larry Fink case. And, and that's. That's digital gold and that's, you know, a 10x from here. And we'll see. You know, we got. Got a bunch of. I've seen. So Adam, you reacted a few times. I still see total Mark's hands up. I can't tell.
- [35:50]
E
Well, well, Gary hit on so many points. It's. It's. I would have you look at Poland. I hear. I hear great things about Poland, but the rest of Europe, I'm not saying I agree.
- [35:59]
C
Dude.
- [35:59]
A
Hungry, by the way.
- [36:01]
C
Awesome.
- [36:01]
E
Oh, and Hungary. Okay, Hungary to visit there as well.
- [36:04]
A
Yeah.
- [36:06]
E
And Gary touched on a lot of points. I think the infighting in. In with bitcoin in all of crypto is, you know.
- [36:12]
A
Yes.
- [36:13]
E
I don't know. I don't know if we ever get past that. I look at that. It's just like human nature. I just think there's.
- [36:18]
A
And.
- [36:18]
E
And maybe, you know, Mark was going to touch on this a little bit. There's still. And we've. We've touched on it on the show a number of times. There's still this huge question of, you know, is. Is the New York Stock Exchange, are they going to use a private blockchain? I mean, I just think they're going to. I just. I don't think it's going to be on, you know, Ethereum or Salon. I just don't think it's going to happen, at least not in the beginning. And, you know, so what's the bull case for, you know, my altcoin bags right now. It's just, it's not great when it's coming to. This is the kind of traditional finance cycle and it turns out they're not interested in using public blockchain rails at this point in time. You know, I just think that's the thing that's putting the damper on price and the damper on excitement. And until we get through that, you know, to the other side, where people want to use Public blockchains. I just don't think we're going to have this kind of run in alt. I just. It's not going to happen.
- [37:12]
C
Hey, Adam, Let me, let me ask you a question, Adam, because it sounds like you're holding some other alts, as am I, Solana being one of them. When do you, when do you cut your position and say, okay, look, this thing's done?
- [37:26]
E
Never, Gary, never.
- [37:28]
C
You don't cut the alts.
- [37:30]
E
Never. I'm a, I'm a believer in crypto and freedom technology of public blockchain. So I never. I'm cutting my, my position. So unless I have to, to feed my family, I will never. I'm not going to capitulate because I believe it's the future.
- [37:45]
C
See, I was, Yeah, I was suggesting, like, do you look at. Okay, I know bitcoin's going to survive. Let me get out of my salon and just move it to bitcoin.
- [37:54]
E
That's a tougher question. That's what I meant. Yeah. No, I'm just, I'm, I'm, I'm still like a product guy at core. So, you know, we build on Salana and on Ethereum and, and so, you know, I won't really, I don't move my bags around that much at all, really, just because I am, I am a believer in kind of network effects. And so for me, Ethereum, I think Solana has, is the next kind of traction piece. You know, I look at like, what's being built and Solana, for me, you know, whether the price. I have no idea what the price is going to do. Right. But I do know that it has real traction of real people because I'm, I, I talk to people every day who use it and build real things on top of it. So I'm still very bullish, like long term, But I'm talking 10 years, 15 years. Right. So. But I don't think in the next. I don't believe that we're going to have a significant run in any of these eth. Salana over the next few years. I just don't see it. I don't see a reason for it to happen unless some super app happens. And I just, I know how rare those things are and I just don't think it's going to happen. I don't think we get the world on chain anytime soon.
- [39:03]
A
So I, I'll make one comment and then go to Tony, which is it will happen when nobody thinks it could possibly happen. That's when moves start. It's when people.
- [39:14]
C
Perfect.
- [39:15]
A
Exactly right, Tony.
- [39:17]
C
Yeah, it could be.
- [39:17]
G
Now.
- [39:20]
B
Like, the sentiment here is pretty negative on altcoins and, and there's, there's various different rationales. I think part of what's holding back there, both a shakeout and, you know, like with the Internet, when there was a lot of stuff that didn't make sense on it because everyone was just figuring out that, you know, putting.com@ the end of a company didn't make for valuable business because these things were businesses and needed the cash flow to operate to pay their expenses. You had this huge shakeout in 2001. You get corrections in crypto, but you still get more and more cryptos appearing and they just don't die. They sit on there and so, and, and then you get people advocating for them because they think they can pump and dump them, or they think, you know, they may think that there's some genuine value in this really long tail of, of offerings. But, but when, when people say crypto, they, they could mean a lot more than, but generally speaking, three different things. Some just mean Bitcoin and they, and they equivocate between the two terms. Some mean like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana and Tether, I suppose, and then some mean this whole universe of many millions of all these other really that long tail isn't providing value, but hasn't shaken out and been closed down. And so the confusion in the market continues. And you also have this misalignment that the primary retailers of these instruments are very interested in people buying the long tail of them. Right. Coinbase and Binance, they make more money when people are trading left, right and center into all sorts of different things. And there are pumps, and those pumps come and go and you, and you have to be very active. That's how they make their, their fees. And there's no real penalty for, for having steered people into a bad direction, which again, NASDAQ was very embarrassed. When the Nasdaq went from 5,000 to 1,000, they, they wanted to stop it, but Binance and Coinbase don't seem to care when you have these big crashes.
- [41:26]
A
Well, you had me up until that. Boy, that's okay.
- [41:29]
B
Like, listen, I'm trying to be controversial here.
- [41:31]
A
You know, I, I just. No, I mean, look at the time that the dot com bubble happened. You know, NASDAQ had just moved to a newer technology and they went on a buying spree. They bought, you know, they bought a bunch of different electronic communication networks, companies called Brute and most importantly, you know, inet which was, which was the. The old island. You know, it was just a whole bunch of corporate PAC, man. Believe me, I knew NASDAQ's management back then well, and they didn't give a crap about, you know, they were just trying to build, build, build, build, build and build a better trading environment. They were certainly not embarrassed by it. In fact, you know, they understood it. What, what was interesting is there were two pieces to the dot com crash. There was the piece that was the larger stocks that NASDAQ did, where, yeah, there were some that famously flamed out. Pets.com being the most obvious one because it did the super bowl ad and then was gone, you know, pretty close after that. But there was also tens of thousands, or 14,000 actually, OTC stocks that traded on what at the time was called the pink sheets that people would pump up to hundreds of million that looked a lot like altcoins and crypto, only crypto was global and got bigger. But still it was that long tail and that got crushed. Those are the stocks, by the way, that are immortalized in the wolf of Wall street or Boiler room. So just so you know. But anyway, that, that's a parenthetical. Anyway. Tony, I saw your hand go up before. Are you there?
- [42:58]
G
Yeah.
- [42:58]
A
Hey, Dave, can you hear me? Yeah, we can hear you. Perfect.
- [43:02]
G
I just want to add some thoughts to what Gary was talking about. With the infighting and the competing for users and liquidity, you know, I think that's more of a feature rather than a bug because it's human behavior online on the Internet and of course on blockchain networks, you take it offline. We're competing with sports and politics and religion and all these things. Well, if I have a certain token, I'm incentivized to get more people in that network and to compete and get more liquidity because I want the valuation to go up. So I don't think that's going to go away over time. Could the education around blockchain networks and tokens and so forth through bigger brands and even governments know, could that help alleviate some of the infighting? Yeah, sure, but I don't think it goes away because it's network effects playing out. Metcalf law.
- [43:57]
A
Yeah, I think that's true, but there's still a sense of, look, there's a lot of the tribalism in the crypto world is, is sort of unique. I mean, it, it on Reddit, I guess with Gamestop, we saw some of that, but there's nothing quite like the, the XRP army or you know, whatever. I mean, I'm picking on them because they're the most obvious. But, you know, people who say things that are just literally clinically insane and get claps and cheers for it, it's just, and it just, it gets to the point where people, people look at this and say, well, this is just stupid. That doesn't mean that the value isn't there. It means that people who are, if the proponents of an asset literally look like morons to anyone who understands, has had even the most a modicum of financial education, then it does create a smear on the asset. There's just no way around it.
- [44:50]
B
Can I just jump in? I mean, I love bitcoin, but to what Gary was saying, there's, there's quite a number of people in bitcoin who are also clinically insane and give it a bad name name because of the way that they try to represent it. So while there's, you know, and I think this is where the, the truth gets separated from the chaff eventually, right? Like, bitcoin survives because of what's true about it, not because some guy is saying that it solves the world's problems in, in food or something like, you know, like, but with these other things, sooner or later the test of reality has to kick in and, and people will lose faith. And it takes, it takes crashes to shake people out of their stupid positions because if the, if the price holds up, then they think they're right. You know, they're just reinforced by that. So it's really wacky. One thing, I don't know that we have time today, but you were asking way earlier, Dave, like, the enthusiasm that I've seen in bitcoin in the last couple of weeks is all around Michael Saylor's STRC product that's selling like hotcakes when the markets are open. And so if we wanted to talk a little bit about that, that's fine, but we may be out of time and you can save it for another day.
- [46:03]
G
Yeah, Dave, also, I, you know, I know you mentioned XRP and, and the XRP army as an example, but what about Meme coins? What about the Trump Meme coin?
- [46:10]
A
Right?
- [46:11]
G
Look at what has come from out of all this.
- [46:14]
A
Yeah, there's Meme coin communities, there's, there's so much of this stuff. I mean, look, I, I, I'm on record and people got mad at me, but I don't give a. I generally support this administration and a lot of what they want to do, but I thought the Trump meme Coin and the Melania meme coin when he launched it was an absolute critical disaster for crypto valuations. And the reason I say that is because it cemented half the country, literally half the country and a lot of them with money saying, okay, I got to stay away from crypto. Because this is, you know, people reflexively. I mean, the joke is if Trump cured cancer, that people would say, God damn it, how dare you attack. You know, cancer cells have a right to exist. Right. You know, we literally are in that, that kind of, of oppositional thing. You know, I went and rewatched Monty Python's Argument clinic recently. This is one of my favorite skits of all time, I swear to God.
- [47:06]
B
No, it isn't.
- [47:07]
A
Exactly. Exactly. It feels like that's the world we're in. So I do think that that was a big deal. But, but meme coins, look, if you could build a community and monetize that community and create content based off of that community, yeah. You might be able to create value. The question is, will the token have value? That, that to me has always been the qu. So like pudgy penguins or Pepe the Frog might very well become an incredibly trademarkable marketing thing that royalties could accrue. Will that accrue to a token holder? I don't think so. But if the answer is yes, then sure, it makes sense. I mean, my point is, is has always been show me the path to value and that's all that matters. But the meta point is still, if you got stupidity saying, well, it doesn't matter. Once people say it doesn't matter, they're not serious and it's really hard to listen to them.
- [47:57]
G
Well, I think we got to delineate between the flash in the pan type projects and meme coins, which is like a short wave and then it goes away. To your point, Dave, but actual blockchain networks with tokens like you said, that accrue value over time and it's a great investment, It's a long term investment. I think the two dynamics, they're going to run side by side because it's human nature. Memes, trends, politics. I mean, right? I mean you look at the. You, like you mentioned the Milani mean going to your pump now it's gone, right? Flash in the pan. But to your point, you invest in eat, invest in Solana, long term, real things being built. So I think unfortunately we can't get rid of it. It's. It's just human nature.
- [48:39]
A
Yeah. Tomer, is that you? Is that a real hand or is That a thing?
- [48:43]
B
No, it's, it's a, it's a ghost. It's a phantom hand. If there's someone who has something about.
- [48:46]
A
You is they just saw him hand flash up.
- [48:48]
D
Yeah, I'm flashing you, Dave.
- [48:50]
A
I'm okay. Good.
- [48:51]
D
I'm old enough that, you know, important any storm. So I think you, you kicked off the call talking about or no, Tomer did about the, you know, Kate, not chaos. I'll throw that word in there. But you know, Greenland, Minnesota, you know, pick your poison. Troops coming in. I thought this was only economic, but it's obviously, you know, the 2020 social unrest has, has, has grown. And I think that really is a thread going through our whole call. Even what Mr. Cardone was talking about, you know, bitcoin having an echo chamber. Everybody, you know, the, the economic opportunity from wages, et cetera aren't there. People are feeling isolated so they're grabbing onto a community. Could be a dogecoin, could be an XRP army. So I think those things will hold value. Like someone said, there'll be some short waves. You know, no one's really grabbing Melania, but I think the, I think the meme coins will have more value maybe than the 24 hour exchanges that the New York Stock Exchange will do. I think, you know, staying on the idea about economic disparity and, and our market, I think value will accrue to identity. I think identity has a place in our community. Bitcoin has some of it as a brand. And that's why I agree that holding on to some coins, altcoins, you know, I'm only bitcoin, but that may have purpose because the project could stay alive, the technology could be there, adopted elsewhere. But yeah, that's one thing I still like about, you know, this call, etc. Is that there's a fervor. And Dave, before I drop, I'll say I was in New York last week and I went to the Yale Club as an alum of uva. We kind of split it and it was an awful environment. Everybody's holding onto their private debt. It's not vibrant. So as far as trading 24 7, you know, I, I think there are two worlds. There are people who want to innovate and there are people who are holding on to their value with income and have no interest in doing anything innovative. So I like this call. I'm selling the L Club now. Dropping the mic there.
- [51:11]
A
I played poker there once or a couple times actually, back when I, when I lived in New York in, in A private room. But you know, look, the innovation is what matters here. Eventually value will, will, will matter. Markets in the long run, value matters. In the short run, momentum matters. And right now we're seeing people, all the momentum traders and we've been saying the same damn thing since November, but it's really true. The momentum traders are in silver and gold, right? They're in various and sundry sub sectors or sub industries inside the stock markets. They're not in bitcoin. Bitcoin's been in a range now for a while and this time and, and all coins have been sliding and it's basically time based capitulation. But there is innovation happening. And while I've never been a fan of, quote, immediate liquidity making tokens being more valuable, thinking that that's a sustainable model because it isn't. There are value propositions that will make sense and so we'll see. I mean this is something that's not going to play out today, tomorrow or the next day. It's going to play out over months and years, but it is going to play out. I will point out that there are chains that will have value and the trick is winners and losers. And I'm not smart enough to know which are going to be the winners and losers in terms of value space. Forget smart enough, I'm not prescient enough. Bitcoin on the other hand, I think is underpriced and hasn't had that momentum trade and I think the momentum trade got derailed, hasn't had that since 21 and it's kind of overdue. Like we people keep talking about the four year cycle and I keep saying, yeah, but there was no up, there was never euphoria, we never got to that. So you can't have a cycle that didn't have the up and expect to see the magnitude on the down. That's why we're in, we're in this thing now. Does that mean it's dead? I don't think so. Does that mean, as Gary is saying, that it feels hard to feel that like there could be an impetus? All I will tell you is I'll never forget when Paul Tudor Jones first came out post the, you know, in the pandemic in May and talked about bitcoin being the fastest horse and everyone was like kind of, oh, this is great. And it didn't do a damn thing for four months. It just sat at the same price. Then it started to take off. You know, four months could be four years for all the hell I know. I'm just saying that we don't know what will be the catalyst. What we, what I can tell you is that a world where half the world thinks that it's. Well, that's a Trump associated thing. And half the world says, you know, and I'm not going to touch it, is, is destructive. And you know, we'll see. I mean, my guess is, is like everything else, this shall pass, this food fight that's going on in Washington. I mean, I would love to have. Hopefully El Nartera can join us one of these days because, you know, her arguing with Brian Armstrong is not something I had on my 2026 bingo card. But yet here we are. Because Eleanor has been pretty much spot on in terms of reporting. And so, you know, to me that was a, that was a big deal. I don't know if anyone cares about that, but we're kind of up against time, so. Nope. Okay. So in that case, we're going to end it here. Enjoy the rest of. For those who are Americans or the rest of your. Your day off to the extent that, that you celebrate Martin Luther King Day. And we'll be back here again tomorrow and I think Scott is back with us so I don't have to carry the conversation, which would be good because you guys are getting tired. I, I would be tired of listening to me. So I don't know about you.
- [54:45]
G
Hey, Dave.
- [54:46]
B
We love you, Dave. We love you.
- [54:47]
A
Yeah, we love you, Dave.
- [54:48]
G
I sent you an email. Let's set the pot up.
- [54:51]
A
Okay, cool. Let's do it. Okay, guys, we're gonna take off now. Have a great day.