Podcast Summary:

The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Andrew Parrish (Arch Public)
Episode: Gold DOMINATES Bitcoin As IMMINENT Recession Fears Set In! What's Next?
Date: December 23, 2025

Main Theme

This episode explores the surprising dominance of gold and silver over Bitcoin and crypto into the end of 2025, the emotional and economic cycles in crypto markets, and how looming recession fears (some warranted, some exaggerated) shape both retail and institutional sentiment. Host Scott Melker and recurring guest Andrew Parrish of Arch Public dissect market psychology, major narratives (like quantum computing and recession fears), current price action, and how different investment strategies have performed in a challenging year.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Gold and Silver Overtaking Crypto

• Gold and Silver's Outperformance

  • Gold and silver have substantially outperformed Bitcoin and altcoins in 2025. Scott jests, "Gold and silver have been absolutely dominating bitcoin and crypto, doing things to them that are only legal in Alabama and Mississippi" (00:01).
  • Bitcoin price has ranged between $85,000 and $90,000, while altcoins and the broader crypto market have seen significant drawdowns.

• The Historical Pattern with Gold

  • Scott muses that major gold breakouts have heralded moments of crisis throughout history, citing events like the Weimar Republic, the French Revolution, and the collapse of the Soviet Union (06:51).
    • Quote: “But this rapid rise in gold prices only happened a few times in history. Never ended well…Every time it meant the same thing. People lost faith in their government and money. History is repeating itself and almost no one is paying attention.” — Scott Melker (06:51)
  • Andrew counters that many of these historical crises are only associated with gold after the fact, and that “those situations oftentimes are connected after the fact. The Weimar thing in Germany didn’t happen because gold went up in price. It happened for 15 other reasons…” (07:55)

• Is a Major Recession Coming?

  • Despite gold's run and recession fears, Andrew says no single signal (like asset class moves) has ever predicted an impending US recession, except perhaps the 2008 GFC.
    • “You can go full McGlone and say, well, based on that data, we're due for something. Right? Or… America has decided we're not going to do recessions anymore and we'll do anything we can to inflate ourselves out of that.” — Andrew Parrish (09:44)

2. Crypto's Emotional Cycle

• Bitcoin's Emotional Bottom

  • Andrew distinguishes between the “four year cycle of price” (which he claims is dead due to institutional entry) and the still-intact “four year cycle of emotions.”
    • “We’ve hit that part of the four year emotional cycle where, alright, I just don't care anymore. And so there's a washout of people… didn't get the gains they expected” — Andrew Parrish (02:11)
  • The emotional exhaustion is seen in Google search lows, muted price talk, and increasing infighting on crypto Twitter—“Everybody’s arguing about Quantum for some reason” (04:15).

• Quantum Computing Narrative

  • The ‘quantum threat’ to Bitcoin is the hot fear topic on crypto Twitter, but remains far off and overblown. Andrew points out that a quantum breach “breaks one block… not the whole kit caboodle” (04:34).

• Retail vs Institutional Sentiment

  • Despite negative retail sentiment, major institutions (BlackRock, JP Morgan) continue to double down on Bitcoin and blockchain.
    • “There’s never been a larger dichotomy between people that have been in crypto a long time and institutional demand.” — Andrew Parrish (05:36)

3. Market Data & Narratives

• Asset Performance in 2025 (as of Dec 23)

  • Gold: +66%, Silver: +128%, Copper: up, NASDAQ: +20%, Russell: +12%, Bitcoin: sideways/slight down, Altcoins: –42%
    • “Silver up 128%. Gold 66. Nasdaq up 20. Even the Russell up 12. And here we are all coins down 42.27%.” — Scott Melker (12:22)
  • Contrasting altcoin losses with strong US equity and metal rallies increases crypto's “echo chamber” malaise.
    • “People keep moving out of the middle into those two types of camps” — Andrew Parrish (13:48)

• The Trump Token and Altcoin Market

  • Charles Hoskinson had claimed the “Trump token” ruined the crypto policy landscape, but Andrew dismisses the idea that one token could kill the alt market: “BlackRock and Bernstein haven’t put out notes claiming the entirety of Altcoin is now dead because of Trump Coin” (15:36).

4. Strategy: Bear Years, Tax Losses, and Tools

• Tax Loss Harvesting in Crypto

  • Scott recommends depressed investors sell coins at a loss before year-end for tax deductions: “You can sell it right now at 87 and write off a $40,000 loss…while you’re watching this show” (17:34).
  • Andrew notes the crypto ‘wash sale’ loophole still applies: “It’s a really cool thing, put it that way” (18:23).

• Active Management Outperforms Buy and Hold

  • Andrew highlights that Arch Public’s algorithmic strategies beat buy-and-hold dramatically in 2025:
    • “Bitcoin down [5-7]%, but using our Oracle protocol you’re up 16, 17. Ethereum…if you were using our Oracle protocol, you’d be up 100…Solana down 20%, but with us you’re up 30%. The variance there is anywhere between 26 and 100% using our tools.” — Andrew Parrish (27:16)

5. Bitcoin Options, Market Structure, and Volatility

• Options Expiry and Price Suppression

  • Bitcoin is facing its largest options expiry, which is suppressing volatility. Max pain for expiry sits at $96k, with most option activity between $85k-$120k (23:30).
    • "Options have become a very meaningful part of that story. When an asset matures...things like options are playing a meaningful part in the way that asset moves." — Andrew Parrish (24:26)
  • As volume in ETF options soars, volatility is dampened, further professionalizing and stabilizing Bitcoin markets.

• No More ‘Get Rich Quick’

  • The days of 100x gains overnight in crypto are over; instead, Andrew argues, wealth is built by “intelligently accumulating assets you believe in” using proven, systematic tools (31:10).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Crypto's Emotional Cycle:
  • "We’ve hit that part of the four year emotional cycle where, alright, I just don't care anymore."
    — Andrew Parrish (02:11)
• On the Quantum Scare:
  • "If Quantum at any point does break some bitcoin code, it breaks one block. Right. It doesn't break the whole kit caboodle."
    — Andrew Parrish (04:34)
• On the Recession Narrative:
  • "You can go full McGlone and say, well, based on that data, we're due for something. Right? Or… America has decided we're not going to do recessions anymore and we'll do anything we can to inflate ourselves out of that."
    — Andrew Parrish (09:44)
• On Institutional/Retails Divergence:
  • “There’s never been a larger dichotomy between people that have been in crypto a long time and institutional demand.”
    — Andrew Parrish (05:36)
• On the Echo Chamber:
  • "Most people in our space hold more alt assets than just bitcoin…they’re going to be a bit cranky every morning."
    — Andrew Parrish (14:23)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:01–00:36: Intro, gold and silver dominance, set-up for the episode
• 02:11–03:59: Bitcoin’s four-year emotional cycle, “emotional bottom” in the crypto community
• 04:15–06:51: Quantum computing FUD, retail vs institutional divergence
• 06:51–10:09: Gold’s historic price run, major historical analogies, relevance to today’s economy
• 10:09–12:49: Recession fears, political/economic polarization, contrasting asset performance
• 14:22–18:46: The altcoin market, the Trump token narrative, and tax loss harvesting strategies
• 23:30–26:47: Bitcoin’s record options expiry, market structure, and effects on volatility
• 27:16–32:43: Active management outperforms buy-and-hold, explanation of Arch Public’s tools and their year-to-date deltas
• 33:16–34:56: Community events, Bitcoin Investor Week, access and networking in the crypto industry
• 35:07–35:46: Episode sign-off and holiday wishes

Conclusion

Scott and Andrew offer a nuanced, witty, and sometimes sardonic breakdown of why crypto feels “dead” as 2025 ends, even as institutional support and product maturation continue apace. They caution against doomsday gold bug scenarios, hype cycles, and tribalism. Their core message: bear markets (emotional and price) are transient, and thoughtful, systematic, and tax-aware investment strategies win out over echo chamber narratives and quick-buck schemes.