Transcript
Dave (0:01)
Good morning everyone. It is Tuesday, March 18 and 10:18. I think we did it in three minutes this time. So we're doing better in terms of getting started. Markets are, are, are, are not thrilled on the risk side, but gold is certainly flying, you know, pushing up against 30, 50 and you know, with ether's continued struggles. We were talking about it yesterday. There's a fair amount to unpack in the market. We can get right to it. Obviously, when you see gold miners outperforming, gold outperforming and the Nasdaq dropping almost 2% off the open, there's kind of a disconnect here where the risk markets think that things are bad, we're going into recession and the gold market is saying, well, okay, they're going to print more and we're going to go up first. Which is a interesting scenario. It actually makes some sense. But then again, I rarely expect markets to make sense when people are trading emotionally. So that's where we are. And you know, we could, we could get started on any of these vectors. Anybody raised their hand, that's fine. Otherwise you'll all have to listen to me for longer than you want. Okay, Mark, why don't you go ahead.
Mark (1:11)
Hey Dave, Thanks. And yeah, I was, I was part of the three minute delay there. So thanks for enduring that. I'll, I'll work on my time out of the blocks. The, there are two markets here. It looks like Bessant is in control. He's asking us to acclimate and there'll be a period of acclimation. He's almost acting like a headmaster telling his students that, you know, the first semester is going to be the hardest and it's really only in the equity markets. Unless, you know, other folks can talk about things that I'm missing. I mean, of course, crypto in particular, you know, the beta, higher beta names getting hit harder. But the thing that's not happening, Dave, is you're not seeing credit spreads or even the move index. And that's what I'm looking for as a potential end to the creative destruction that Trump and the administration is doing in order to try to get the deficit down with tariffs. So yeah, it seems to be more in the liquid equity markets, but high yield spreads are still in the 99th percentile relative to investment grade. There's still risk seeking behavior there. So that's what I'm looking at. I mean, gold is obviously telling you the signal of I don't like it. Proxy wars are not going to stop. That needs money. It means printing so you're right. But. And this is not a but. And in keeping with that, credit spreads are like great. As long as they print, there won't be a dislocation in the treasury markets. So therefore, you know, my 7 to 8% private debt is fine. So that's from, you know, more on the credit side. My background, I'm looking at that as a potential signal for contagion, but it's not flashing even yellow yet.
Dave (3:08)
Yeah, the other, only other signal that I've seen and there have been a bunch of people commenting about recession indicators and you know, I personally think that it's, it becomes a trick of, of nomenclature. I mean, we all know that, that Yellen changed the definition a little over a year ago. So, you know, actually was under a year ago. So, you know, who knows? I do know that searches on Google for recession are up and so investors are certainly worried about it. But you know, the real question is, you know, why would bitcoin be continuing to track more with the NASDAQ right now than with gold? And it is interesting. Personally, I just think bitcoin is in this kind of choppy little range here and kind of working itself out. But, and I don't get too, too bothered about these moves, but it is, it is interesting. Carlo, what do you think?
