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Huge Bitcoin Announcement Live | Crypto Town Hall
01:11:58
Huge Bitcoin Announcement Live | Crypto Town Hall
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- [00:00]
Host
Good morning, everyone.
- [00:01]
Dennis
We're launching a little bit early today. It's 9:59. Obviously, we usually start the show Crypto Town hall every day at 10:15am Eastern Standard Time. But if you check above the tweet, I just pinned Senator Cynthia Lummis on her Sen. Lummis account. She has two said big things are coming with eyeballs and the B is a bitcoin and it says stay tuned for 10:00am we'll be kind of getting people up on stage here. We do not have guests that were prepared for a 10 o'clock start. But just to give a little bit of background for people who don't know who Senator Cynthia Lummis is, she's arguably the most pro bitcoin senator in the United States Senate. Senator from Wyoming. She has been a bitcoiner for a very long time. Her son actually convinced her to buy bitcoin many, many years ago. She was the one who proposed half of the Lummis Gillibrand bill, which I guess is about two years ago now, really sparking the idea that we could get bipartisan legislation on crypto in general. She's definitely a bitcoiner first. But most importantly still, as we wait here, I'm going to see what kind of announcement we get. But most importantly for anyone who is watching bitcoin, Nashville, when Trump famously gave his speech, people were conjecturing that he would announce the initiative for a strategic bitcoin reserve in the United States. He came short in that speech of actually saying that he would do it. But she immediately rushed out on stage holding a bill that she had filed on the Senate floor for a strategic bitcoin reserve. And this was much bigger than the idea of simply holding the bitcoin that was already owned or held by the United States government, proposing to buy millions of bitcoin, percentage of the supply over a number of years. Really the most aggressive and positive version we could ever imagine of a, of a strategic bitcoin reserve. And now, obviously, we've been waiting for potentially an executive order from Trump mentioning this, but she has been, the senator long supporting our industry, has been spearheading this. I'm glad, Dennis, you're here. Do you have any. You have any intel? I know you know her on what this might be.
- [02:20]
Ron Hammond
Yeah. So I think it's smart to assume that there could be a variety of different big bitcoin announcements here. Obviously the executive order being the biggest possible announcement. But there's other ways that she could be making announcements here, including the reintroduction of her legislation. She's going to be needing to reintroduct, reintroduce her legislation in the new Congress. And also there's an opportunity for her to potentially pick up co sponsors here. So I know that finding a co sponsor for this legislation has been critical for her and her team. You know, I sat down with Senator Lummis in Washington D.C. we were together for roughly an hour. We sat together for a 45 minute interview and then, you know, on the bookends, five minutes, 10 minutes on the, on the front in the beginning, we had a quite an opportunity to talk and share our viewpoints on the importance of a strategic bitcoin reserve and also talk about the importance of the work happening at the federal level and the state level. So in my opinion, I would say that, you know, clearly the idea of a strategic bitcoin executive order here is the most exciting potential announcement that could take place. But there are a variety of other announcements that could take place. I think the most obvious one being the reintroduction of the legislation or a co sponsor for that legislation as well.
- [03:35]
Dennis
Yeah, that would be. I mean, listen, big things are coming with the bitcoin B logo is out of character for her. Right. I mean, she's not exactly like the type to go fully hyperbolic and to use announcements of announcements. So you have to imagine that this is, whatever it is, is significant because she would understand that anything that was like a small announcement after tweeting something like that would be a letdown. Right. I mean, if you look, which is crazy, you know, charts always seem to align with the market. But bitcoin basically pumped from 1001000 sub 102, certainly to over 105 in 35, 40 minutes, clearly on this announcement. Right. And so there's an expectation here that this is going to be something really, really meaningful. Right. Awesome. Our team is amazing, by the way, in doing this. Yeah, it's got like, she, she knows better than to like tease something like that and then it's a nothing burger. Right. So I, you know, my assumption, knowing her as well and having dealt with her, that she understands what's doing and there is this expectation that something big is coming regardless of her tweet. Right. I mean, everybody's been holding their breath daily waiting for some sort of executive order or mention that could be a catalyst for the, for the next move. Here we have Ron Hammond here, our team, guys. Amazing getting this panel up here so quickly. All credit to the team, who's a Senior Director of Government Relations, Institutional Engagement, Blockchain association, that's. That means this dude's lobbying his ass off for us. Ron, do you have any intel on what this might be, what this might look like?
- [05:14]
Steve
I'm going to wait and see what the official announcement is. I mean, there's been a couple of things that their staff has been teasing for a little bit here in D.C. so we'll wait and see. My first inclination was more the executive orders. You know, I know she's been. The center has been in touch obviously with Bo Hines and David Sachs over there, as well as the rest of the Trump team. So I'm hearing rumors that we'll get the eo it could be this, but I guess we'll see hopefully momentarily because that was quite the tease of the last second.
- [05:42]
Dennis
A very specific time. 10:00am do you know if we know if that's 10:00am Eastern or 10:00am Wyoming time?
- [05:50]
Steve
It'd be Eastern.
- [05:51]
Dennis
They're in D.C. okay, cool, thanks. My first thought, Brian, was, damn it, we have to talk for two hours about nothing until it actually happens. So, I mean, the kind of thing here, in my opinion, anything short of an executive order would be a disappointment. Is that, is that a fair assessment or what do you guys think? Dan, you're giving me the 100. Do you think so?
- [06:16]
David
Yeah.
- [06:16]
Dennis
As you say, she knows what she's doing. This is not her first rodeo. Something this big at this level. Yeah. She also doesn't have form for doing this. It's not like she, she constantly does this. Right. So I agree, and I agree. The previous speaker. I think this is the EO related. That's based on absolutely nothing. Just my gut feel, but that's what I think it is. Yeah. I mean, Steve, go ahead. Steve. Can you guys hear Steve? I can't. I don't know if it's a glitch. I can't hear. No, can't hear him. Okay. Steve, your, your mic's not working, so I'm gonna knock you down my guys and we'll invite you close your app. Come back in. We'll invite you back up. Brian. Yeah. You obviously were agreeing with me. Anything short of an executive order here would probably be a letdown on an announcement like this. Yeah, yeah.
- [07:07]
Gaurav
I mean, from a price standpoint, where.
- [07:09]
Dennis
Are we at like 106,000 or so? 105. 3. I think that if you got anything but an executive order, you're going to see it dip. If you get an executive order, it's definitely going higher, I think. Can you imagine if it got the executive order and it went down. Wouldn't that be the funniest scenario for bitcoin price action and the and the most unpredictable slash predictable thing that could could possibly go down. That would be hilarious. Go ahead, Ron.
- [07:35]
Ron Hammond
All right.
- [07:36]
Steve
One thing I will flag and this is this could be related to the timing here. So the Senate bank committee is having their first kind of organizational hearing. It's kind of just kind of the kickstart to the next two years for the Congress. And this is at least in somewhat she's the major announcement that she is going to be leading the first digital asset subcommittee. So that could be partly in tied here. She might be saying other things of like what the priorities are for her subcommittee or what legislation she wants to focus on. So that could also be one thing as well as in the realm of possible options here because that's going on right now.
- [08:10]
Dennis
Yeah, yeah, definitely possible. It feels let downy tennis.
- [08:17]
Simon
Yeah. So yeah, you can hear me now, right?
- [08:20]
Dennis
Yeah. Steve, go ahead then. Dennis. Go ahead, Steve. We hear you.
- [08:24]
Simon
Yeah, I was just going to say I wouldn't necessarily expect a strategic bitcoin reserve. I think it's going to be a strategic crypto reserve. If you look at what's been happening with the Freedom Defy organization and what they've been buying in air, everybody says well no, that's, you know, that's separate. But it's kind of the, you know, it's, it's, you know, it's still relevant. It's, it's very heavily heavy on eth. It's wrapped bitcoin. It's Tron, it's ave. One of the largest investors is Justin sun who also about the same time that that Loomis posted Big things are Coming, Justin sun also said big things are Coming. So yeah, I would expect a very different type of vehicle than what everybody's expecting. Even if it's legislation that's getting pushed forward reading the tea leaves, I would expect it to be a broader crypto fund that invests in things that a lot of the bitcoin maxis aren't going to like.
- [09:28]
Dennis
I'm actually defaulting now my brain to it not being an executive order. I think that it's going to be what Ron said if, if they're, that Ron, if they're actually meeting right now for the first time. I this is going to be like, you know, we got the SEC announcement that they're having a committee on crypto chaired by purse. I bet it's going to be something like that. That's my guess as a Committee of some sort.
- [09:52]
Steve
Yeah, I think we are. You know, the folks in D.C. we know this takes time to do a lot of these things. You know, when some folks in the. On Twitter or in the markets were freaking out that on day one, something didn't happen, we were trying to warn folks for a while, like, hey, like, day one can mean day one. It can be day 100, it could be. So these things do take time. And a lot of these announcements are going to be big relativity for D.C. like, again, creation of the Digital Asset Subcommittee in the Senate, that's huge. That's where a lot of legislation originates in crypto, and we've never had that in the Senate. So that's a big, big thing. And having Senator Lumensley, that's huge.
- [10:24]
Dennis
But, like, that's what's going to happen. That's what's going to happen. I would put my money on the fact now that it's going to be Digital Assets Subcommittee announced she's going to be chairing it, and that means everybody will speculate that the first order of business will be at sbir. Right, that. That makes sense. Go ahead, Dennis.
- [10:44]
Ron Hammond
Yeah, I mean, I think it's completely rational to assume that it's. It's not the. The biggest possible announcement that we could receive here. I am also just kind of seguing into, you know, the odds of what this EO would look like if it were to be in the executive order. I'm really curious to see what type of language they use. Obviously, we've heard a lot of talk about the difference between a strategic reserve stockpile and a strategic reserve, a bitcoin strategic reserve and a bitcoin strategic stockpile, and that those two different things are. People have sort of coalesced around what they mean. Some people are saying that they believe a stockpile to be something where the President is going to be continuing to hold the bitcoin that we currently have versus a reserve where there will be holding, but also buying and continuing to add bitcoin to that reserve. So at Satoshi Action, we've been really curious to see how this sort of unfolds. We've been playing very, very close attention to this and actually communicating with a variety of people in Washington, D.C. to sort of share our opinion on where we think it should go directionally. Personally, I believe that it is more likely that if we were to see an executive order, that it would go the stockpile route, just given that that is the promise that Trump made and it's the words that he used. In Nashville when he made the promise, he never promised to buy bitcoin. He only promised to keep 100% of the Bitcoin that the, that the US holds. Those are his words. It's a direct quote. And so I'm, I would love to hear what other people are thinking, maybe even Ron if he's heard of what's going on in D.C. given his, his position there. Ron, I just missed you. I, I saw you while I was at PGP breakfast. I saw you on the TV screen, but I missed you in person.
- [12:18]
Steve
Yeah, I'm back down Miami. I got to a couple events actually speaking down at a conference here today as well, so got me all over. But yeah, back on the EO for the Reserve. I'm again, I'm hearing a lot more of that on the rumor side. But again, to your point, a lot of people are confusing that with the government actually going out and actually buying bitcoin largely and most circles believe requires legislation act of Congress. And so that's where Lummis bill comes into play. But if it's just like an executive order, we can see more of a stockpile or maybe they're going to make a sovereign wealth fund or something to that extent. But it does seem like from all sources indication there's going to be something related to that. But we would try to warn folks in the market here it is very, very likely not the case that they're going to be able to go out and buy millions and billions of dollars worth of bitcoin.
- [13:07]
Dennis
That doesn't seem how big of a. So there's a lot of nuance there. So if they announce an executive order right now, I think we all agree like that says strategic Bitcoin reserve. If that's the news, it would be flying. We're going to see things absolutely fly. And that would be kind of the best case scenario. But if we're seeing Lummis basically forming a committee and announcement of that, that it remains a priority, doesn't that mean that the priority would most likely be her version of it, which is actually buying and not just stockpiling what exists. And I guess then the next part of that is what's going to exist if Bitfinex gets ownership of the tokens that were there in the first place and those bitcoin end up back in Bitfinex's hands, which is about 100,000 of the sub, 200,000 left. Well, we don't know how many are left because we don't know if they've sold the Sofa in bitcoin or not. So.
- [14:02]
Ron Hammond
So yeah, I, I, you know, I spent a lot of time in, in D.C. with the Lummis team just now and I was texting with some of them. So I, I will say that there's. Yeah, it's very, going to be very interesting to see what happens. But I'm excited for the announcement to come out and looking forward to supporting the, the, the sort of end result here.
- [14:23]
Dennis
I don't know what the. Yeah, I think we have sort of an announcement because Bitcoin.com I'm not quite sure, but this is coming from Fox Reporter. I'm going to try to pin it. While we're also talking, is Fox Reporter Senate to vote at 10am on Senator Lummis as Digital Asset Committee Chair? That's what I'm seeing. So kind of, I don't know how deep that goes. It's a pretty big announcement for her, certainly, but that's not exactly an executive order. The price of bitcoin's back down to pretty much where it was before she tweeted. Yeah, I, I gave her a little too much credit for something that would be a huge announcement. Man. Wow. That dumped it right back down to 100,500. Listen, I don't know if that even is, but that seems like that would be her announcement. Watch for 10am as you guys can see, I thought I pinned it. We're having trouble getting something up into the nest. But let me see. Hopefully it worked that time. Yeah, There you can see.
- [15:21]
Ron Hammond
I will say, you know, I will say that this is a huge move, to be honest. It is to have this new Digital Asset Subcommittee in the Senate, to be able to have her leading it, given that she is the most the biggest champion for bitcoin. You know, I said this when I said down with her. I said, you know, you are the biggest champion for bitcoin. You've put your neck out on the line for bitcoin when it wasn't popular. You know, she was the one who said thank God for bitcoin on the Senate floor. And this is years before there was a lot of momentum, even with the Trump administrator, the incoming Trump administration, or the incoming Trump campaign around bitcoin. So having her be in this position is going to be huge, huge, huge, huge for us to be able to advance critical bitcoin and digital asset legislation in the Senate, where it is traditionally very, very, very hard to get senators to pay attention to these things. You know, oftentimes when I go around the Senate and I Talk to people about what's going on in the House, where they have all of these great pieces of legislation going on because they have a, you know, a digital asset subcommittee in the House and they have a lot of legislation moving over there. They oftentimes have no idea what's going on, even going on, and they've never, hardly even know what's going on with bitcoin, despite all of the efforts that people have made to educate lawmakers in the Senate. So I think that this is going to be something that is really, really instrumental in helping to move and grease the tracks, so to speak, in the Senate, where not only have they had, we have had a hard time maintaining the education on what is happening with legislation, specifically not saying they don't understand or haven't heard about bitcoin, but specifically with legislation. It's been difficult to educate senators on that, but it will also, I believe, force more lawmakers to pay a lot more attention to that legislation and give it a much better opportunity to make it through the Senate where it is so hard to move legislation, especially given the threshold that you have to meet comparatively to the House.
- [17:14]
Dennis
Right. So huge news, but didn't warrant the basically move in price that we saw in anticipation of it, hence why it immediately drops right back down. It's, it's an interesting.
- [17:26]
Ron Hammond
Yep, I could agree with that.
- [17:27]
Dennis
So, like fundamentally big, but in a moment, when literally the crypto world has for three days been holding their breath and waiting for Trump to say the word bitcoin or crypto is kind of a, kind of a letdown as we, I guess we thought it would be ran. Do you see the announcement?
- [17:47]
Matthew
I mean, I saw the announcement about the announcement and then, and then I was kind of disappointed. Like, it's big news for Cynthia Loomis. It's not big news for bitcoin or not. I mean, everyone's waiting for, for news around the strategic reserve. And this is about her getting a new job.
- [18:02]
Dennis
Yeah, but she is the one who's proposing it. Right. So it does mean that the potentially best version of the strategic reserve will be definitely on the docket. Yeah, so I guess there's that.
- [18:14]
Matthew
Yeah, but, yeah, but I mean, you're looking at the silver lining. Like, like, I think we were all expecting it to be a strategic reserve that was brought on by an executive order, because that's like big, but because. Because that would be like a direct way to get it through. You know, if we're going to go the longer route, then look, if we're going to go the long route, then it's, then it's the, the, the probability we'll probably land up getting it, but the road to getting it is going to be paved with hurdles. And I'm not averse to that because I think as long as they don't say no strategic reserve along the way or it doesn't look like at any point in time the strategic reserve is going to get vetoed at any, at any point along the way, that's fine. But I think what the crypto market was hoping for, based on, you know, announcements and announcements about announcements, is that we were looking for a strategic reserve based on an executive order. And I think that that's now slowly, slowly, slowly disappearing. That the hope of a strategic reserve that is, that is created out of an executive order is probably, I don't know. I'm not saying it's not going to happen. I'm just saying every day, that every passing day that goes by just makes the probabilities less and less and less. And as a result, I think that the market is going to start pricing in the fact that this may actually take a long time. Tell you why I think that doesn't really matter, because even if there was a strategic reserve that was proposed, I don't see the US Right now, given where they're at and all the obligations that they have and the spending that they need to do just to fix infrastructure and stuff like that. I don't see them allocating any more money to buying bitcoin. I just see them potentially holding all the bitcoin that they've got. Right. So I think we dodged the bullet. I think the Department of, of justice hasn't started selling the. I don't know for Department of Justice or the Marshall. I don't know if it is, but they haven't started selling the, the, the bitcoin that they, they applied to sell. And so I just think that, you know, whether you call it a strategic reserve or whether no one just sells the bitcoin, I think we're, we're in status quo for now.
- [20:11]
Dennis
Wouldn't we require what's happening today in.
- [20:14]
Gaurav
Order to have an actual strategic reserve.
- [20:16]
Dennis
That actually purchases bitcoin or other crypto? Well, people think by executive order and not necessarily by.
- [20:23]
Matthew
No, yes, but yes, eventually. I think the strategic reserve, the buying strategic reserve would never happen by executive order. I think the executive order would say we're establishing a strategic reserve, but I can't see Trump saying we're establishing a trustee reserve and we're going to buy 5% of the Bitcoin supply. That I don't think that the executive order would have said that.
- [20:41]
Dennis
I think I would have said, hey, Bailey. Yeah, we've got. David, I know you've only got a minute, and you were DMing me in the background so I could try to seem smart about what was likely coming. Give us, give us a breakdown.
- [20:53]
Host
Yeah, no, I mean, just joining for a second to, to give an alternative take, because I feel like there's a lot of cynicism of this announcement. Lummis being the chair of the Digital Asset Subcommittee is huge for us. Like, the, that means that she has the ability to hold hearings. It means that she has the ability to drive the agenda of what is being prioritized in the Senate. And so as it relates to digital assets. And so it's massive that, that she has this role. And it has way bigger benefits to us than just like, you know, giving momentum to the sbr. But there's a, there's a laundry list of things that we want to achieve, and she's going to be in a position to facilitate the conversation and drive the narrative. So. And then in terms of, like, the, the sbr, specifically the SBR is going to happen. And like, I, I anticipate it being done in the first hundred days, you know, where in that 100 days. I, I don't know, but I think it's extremely likely that it happens. There are two different flavors of the sbir. One is executive order, one is legislative. We will pursue both of them. And then on the executive order side, they have the discretion of. I mean, like, they could easily have an acquisition program that would, you know, that could potentially be in the tens of billions of dollars. But, like, that's, you know, it does have, like, limitations on how much it could be. And it's not some unbelievable sum. I mean, it's like a micro strategy, but it's not like, you know, the scale that the government could do. We need legislation to do a large scale, you know, 1 million bitcoins, 2 million bitcoins purchasing program. So. But these are, these are. Sorry, these are things that can be done concurrently. So, like, it's not like, you know, we pick one or the other. It's like we, we do the, the fast and dirty and then we do the, the legislative. Next.
- [23:04]
Matthew
Dave, just question. If I were to ask you probabilities that you think a strategic reserve will purchase Bitcoin, when I say purchase Bitcoin, not just hold the remaining government Bitcoin, but actually Purchase new Bitcoin in 2025. What would you put the probabilities at?
- [23:23]
Host
I would say purchase new Bitcoin. I'd put the probability, it's a dynamic situation. So as the price of bitcoin goes up, I feel like what we can get also expands. But I would put the odds right now at probably 25% that we buy bitcoin and I would say, I would.
- [23:42]
Matthew
Say it's about 10.
- [23:43]
Host
I'd put the odds of us holding the bitcoin we already have by executive order at like basically not 190. And I, what I, I, what I would disagree with you on is like I don't think the US just, you know, setting a policy to hold their bitcoin is like underwhelming in any regard. Like that will pump the game theory of that.
- [24:16]
Dennis
It's never been about buying, frankly. Listen, I think it would be amazing. But it's always been about the meaning behind the declaration of what the asset is and that's going to be held. Okay, David, that's what I've always thought. Like whether it's one bitcoin or a million Bitcoin, every government in the world has to follow suit.
- [24:34]
Matthew
Yeah, but I think that's already, I think that's already in play. I think that's already in play. Like, I think, I think when I say it's in play, I think the game theory is in play that people are anticipating the, the probability that there is going to be a strategic reserve.
- [24:49]
Dennis
Yo, it just broke. Trump's gonna hold a call with the president of el Salvador at 3:30. I just broke just now.
- [24:56]
Matthew
Yeah, so I think, I think that, I think that, I think that, that the probability that there is going to be an announcement around strategic reserve in 2025 is very high. And I think the markets factored that. It's just a case of we thought or the crypto market was pricing by executive order.
- [25:13]
Host
No, the, the markets have not factored this in. This is not, this is not priced in to the, it's not priced then. So like I think the market's pretty skeptical it's going to happen and I think they're way more skeptical than they, than they should be. And yeah, and I, and I, yeah, I'll just leave it at that.
- [25:36]
Dennis
I mean also you can price in the theory that it'll happen really quickly, Steve. But David, I don't think you can price in like the actual buying on a scarce asset if all the central banks feel forced to do so. Right. They're going to have to buy it or mine it or do something. So I, I don't think, you know, if they all start buying it once you can possibly.
- [25:55]
Matthew
But I'm going to argue that that's, I'm going to argue that's a long time away. And the reason I'm going to argue that it's a long time away is because there's so many policies that have to change in so many different countries. Like, you heard when Pal spoke the other day and he said the Fed can't even hold bitcoin. Like, it's not, it's like in terms of the legislation right now, they can't even hold it even if they want to.
- [26:14]
Host
It's, it's that it's not true. Like, most of these countries have the same setup that the United States has where they've confiscated bitcoin from criminal activities and had to liquidate them. They're already set up to some degree to hold digital assets and to sell them. And dude, I know for, like, I know for a fact because I've been, I've been part of the conversations that there are many different nations that are evaluating this right now and they're trying to determine whether the Donald Trump just made a frivolous campaign promise to win votes and he's not going to follow through or if he is going to fall through. And so, you know, I think the game theory of this kicks in right away. And if Trump signs an eo, I think China has an executive order or like China, China has their own strategic bitcoin reserve within 24 hours. Like, like, David, this will move really, really quick.
- [27:08]
Dennis
I don't know if you got to go, but if you don't, you, you hinted the other day, obviously there was this, I think unwarranted disappointment that the bitcoin wasn't mentioned in the inauguration speech or that like, we didn't get an executive order on day one. I mean, I would argue that Trump freed Ross and there's a lot of executive orders coming. But you tweeted something to the effect of, you know, there's 200 of them. You know for a fact that there's going to be crypto related executive orders coming. Everyone chill. Right? I mean, that's the gist. So, like, what are you looking for?
- [27:36]
Host
I don't think I said I know for a fact because I haven't read them the EO myself. So I mean, like, I'm just sharing what I was told by someone who would know. But I saw a list of, of eos and buy topics. And you know, I, I fully expect there to be in the next several days. You know, I don't know what pace they're grinding through these EOs at, but, like, very, very soon there will be dedicated crypto bitcoin eos. And like, yeah, like they're. Yeah. So the Ross Ulbricht item is kind of completely separate from those.
- [28:16]
Dennis
It is, but I think it just tips the hat that he's serious about some of the promises. And that was something that I know that you were very passionate about and had to do with, but that bitcoiners really wanted to see because that one was a kind of a specifically day one kind of promise, right?
- [28:34]
Host
Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I mean, and I think it's super bullish for the SBR because it just shows that he's like super serious about promise made, promises kept. And as soon as he announced it, I got blown up by a bunch of people from the organization saying, promises made, promises kept. So, I mean, like, this is like what they want to be. And yeah, yeah, I, I, you know, I think the, the bigger takeaway from this announcement or, you know, the, the people's excitement about this being a bitcoin reserve announcement from Lummis is like, look how much excitement there is around this topic. Like, there is a ton of momentum behind this idea and it's just a matter of time of getting this done legislatively and like, we really should start like rallying the campaign to push this, you know, in Congress, like asap, because like, they're like, this is a completely parallel track to the eo.
- [29:34]
Dennis
Ron.
- [29:36]
Steve
Yeah. To David's point here. So this is kind of like, I guess the next phase of the policy attention here. So I remember like four years ago when I was still or like five years ago when I was working on Capitol Hill, when it was like Lummis, I think at the time. And then my old boss, Warren Davidson would tweet something pro crypto. The entire Twitter would go crazy and the markets would react even though it was just a positive tweet because people misinterpreted it as that this law for regulation of stable coins or market structure is going to happen today. So we just kind of saw a little bit of that as well. But here's the upside. Lummis now is what she says on Twitter matters, because she's the one you get to decide David's point, what bills get, hearings, what, you know, hearings matter, what bills advance, what bills dies.
- [30:17]
Dennis
So she had.
- [30:18]
Steve
So what she says such on Twitter since she's very much, you know, running her own show here, it does matter. So like, that's going to be really important what she says and like what dictates moving forward through Congress and to the reserve point. I think the one thing we got, you know, folks kind of miss in the markets compared to DC is that there is like a faction of, you know, more Republican leaning or right leaning groups that are against the svr, like as the one that Alumnus proposed where the government actually goes and buy it. So there's not full cohesion, you would say, especially on the Republican side on this view. And that's probably why we haven't seen as much of a push like in the House at this stage that will likely change. But just flagging, there are other groups that are not all gun ho.
- [30:57]
Host
Who do you think are the biggest detractors?
- [31:00]
Steve
I mean, CATO did a pretty deep dive into it. You know, they had a couple of folks on that front here, but the CATO does have a lot of folks in Congress who listen to them on the conservative side. So like that's one of the more of the outspoken groups here. I mean, at ba, we have a lot of folks who are for the sbir. We have some folks in companies who are not as excited or don't really care. So like we're kind of in this split situation. But that's. Yeah, just saying from our perspective, it's kind of a, it's not as cohesive as maybe Twitter makes it seem sometimes. And.
- [31:33]
Ron Hammond
One of the problems in the industry and having just recently been sitting down with a lot of the different groups is that this is a bitcoin strategic reserve. And even though most crypto folks have bitcoin, like a lot of folks now are trying to make a play to be included in the strategic reserve. Not only are we seeing that happen at the federal level, I won't name names at the, you know, risk of pissing certain people off, but we certainly have had some activity at the state level where we have had certain crypto companies. I will call them, I would, I would hardly call them a decentralized protocol, but certain crypto companies have approached lawmakers that we're working with to have their crypto included into the, to the efforts to be able to build a strategic reserve at the state level. And then I also wanted to go back to the whole like momentum building that was mentioned earlier that, you know, price certainly will be one component. But also the states passing strategic bitcoin reserve legislation into law at the state level is going to be massive for driving momentum for a variety of reasons, but people often say, oh, you know, other countries, let's wait till other countries are the ones that are going to be doing this. And that's going to drive momentum. But people forget that the states, Texas, for example, is the eighth largest economy in the world. California is the fifth largest economy in the world. It's having one of these states move forward on a strategic bitcoin reserve is going to be as big, if not bigger, than another nation state adopting a strategic bitcoin reserve. And we're already seeing it take place. For those of you that don't know, there's already 11 states now that have strategic bitcoin reserve legislation at the state level, and there's going to be more. And once they start buying bitcoin, that is going to be a massive game changer for our momentum at the federal level. When I sat down with Senator Lummis, she numerous times mentioned how important it is to work at the state level. In fact, she used to be a state lawmaker, so she really understands the value of using the states as what she calls it as a laboratory of democracy or an incubator for good ideas like strategic bitcoin reserve legislation.
- [33:28]
Matthew
I mean, yeah, I think this is great. I think the progress is amazing. I think all, not all, but I think a large portion of Twitter or crypto was hoping and was expecting there to be a strategic reserve by executive order. And I think we're just going the long way around. I don't think it makes any difference because I don't think the US Was going to buy any new bitcoin this year. It was just a case of the principle of putting it into play. And I think as long as there's no hurdles along the way or significant hurdles along the way, I think it's still safe.
- [33:59]
Host
And one caveat I'd add to that is that if Trump does the EO in the first 100 days and the community rallies around this idea, there's going to be a lot of momentum behind the legisl, the legislation. And so, you know, if Trump, if Trump does an eo, you're going to get right right away, almost half the Senate is going to be on board with this. So agree the the odds of the US Buying bitcoin this year via the bitcoin act. Like I would, I would increase the odds, like once an EO happens, like, I increase the odds as the price of bitcoin goes up. So, like, you know, a month from now, like the odds could be 50, 50 that we get something done this year. So it just depends on how much political momentum we can build.
- [34:48]
Matthew
But I mean like I understand it from a logical point of view, I understand it from an investment point of view. I just don't understand it from a US socio economic point of view how with all the spend that is required and with potentially all the people that are going to be laid off from federal, from government roles by doge and stuff like at how the government will justify instead of infrastructure projects and stuff like that, taking money when you're, you know, the US has got a massive deficit which is growing and growing and growing. How are you going to justify. I know we can justify it because bitcoin's the solution to all the problems. But how do you justify to the man in the street that the government's investing in bitcoin?
- [35:28]
Host
I think the framing is that this is a approach to solve the U.S. u.S. Debt crisis. And so like from that perspective there's a long term financial benefit to the country, there's a national security benefit to the country, there is a geopolitical interest for the country. So I think that there's a lot of, of valid reasons why to do it beyond just number go up is good for the U.S. so yeah, yeah. And I think, well, and to continue.
- [36:04]
Ron Hammond
On and you also to continue on just like the value really quickly I think David clearly covered the, the value of the, the strategic reserve at the federal level. But at the state level, states have lost a massive a part of their purchasing power. You know, the dollar has lost 25% of its purchasing power since 2018. We ran the numbers and the empirical data shows that if states would have held even a very, very small amount, even 3% of Bitcoin on their balance sheet, they could have protected the purchasing power of the dollars that they have. I mean states don't have an unlimited money printer. They don't have the unlimited budgets that exist in Washington D.C. so by having a strategic reserve they can majorly protect themselves from the downside risk that occurs when Washington D.C. decides to print more money.
- [36:47]
Dennis
Just really quickly I pinned it above but we have Dan obviously announced this earlier. Trump to hold call with President of el Salvador at 3:30pm and that says Trump to sign executive order at 2:30pm I'm seeing all over Twitter people saying if that's an announcement that he's going to sign a bitcoin reserve executive order, that is not how that reads.
- [37:09]
Matthew
Come on.
- [37:09]
Dennis
Just telling you.
- [37:14]
Matthew
Bitcoin. Come on. I don't need talking to, I think. Right?
- [37:20]
Dennis
Stupid. Yeah, dude.
- [37:22]
Host
Guys, we got to get to the point where. Do y'all remember when, like, every time Gary Gensler would go do an interview, the first question he'd be asked is, like, when bitcoin etf. And he, like, to the point where he was, like, annoyed by it. Like, we need to make it so that every single time a politician says they have some, like, legislative news, or Trump says he's about to sign an executive order, everyone starts saying, you know, is it the strategic bitcoin reserve? And, like, we're constantly reminding him that this is the thing that people want to see that happen. I'm telling you, it has a major, major impact and effect. All right, I'm bouncing out of here. Ciao. See you guys.
- [37:55]
Dennis
David, appreciate it, man. Go ahead. I know. You said that. Yeah, go ahead. You said that the call won't be about bitcoin. I'm fairly sure that it will come up on the call. And one of the criticisms of Trump has always been that he doesn't really have an idea of his own. He's just, like, the last person in his ear. So, you know, I would assume. I think it's fairly likely that Bukele will mention bitcoin, and that will, like, put the idea in Trump's head again, and then he'll go, oh, yeah, like, he'll remember that bitcoin exists and then go and speak about it, I guess.
- [38:27]
Matthew
So.
- [38:27]
Dennis
I wouldn't be surprised. The 230 executive order.
- [38:30]
Matthew
Maybe not.
- [38:30]
Dennis
But I think I would be surprised if Bukele doesn't mention bitcoin, and then, you know, if he says to Trump that we have way more of it than you have, that's the sort of thing that would get under his skin and make him go and sign the order. I don't know. They don't, though. I think the United States still has more than El Salvador. Right. Unless we. Unless the Bitfinex coins gets sent back and they've already sold the Silk Road. Go ahead, Simon. Sorry, I know you're waiting.
- [38:52]
Dareth
Yeah, I was just gonna say the El Salvador is way more likely to be discussing immigration and mass deportation.
- [38:59]
Matthew
Exactly.
- [39:00]
Dareth
And 13 and that type of stuff. And, you know, planning any kind of strategy around deportations. But just in terms of framing, Cynthia Lummis has already kind of shown how she's framed it to deal with the objection of wasted resources, because this isn't like qe, where the Fed is printing digital dollars in order to acquire government debt, which is inflationary. By nature, it's talking about reframing the strategic reserves. So currently there are gold reserves and swapping some gold reserves to hedge with bitcoin reserves and using some engineering would actually strengthen the dollar but not be inflationary and not change the supply. So it's just the communications. Obviously there's lots of nuance that people don't understand in these things, but almost like the Nixon shock in 71, he had to really dumb down the statement to try and reframe the fact that the US Was defaulting and make it sound like it's good for America. So it just requires a bit of creativity in, in helping people understand that this is good for the dollar.
- [40:13]
Matthew
I want to ask, I want to ask you guys something on a slightly different topic. I had a little bit of a brainwave in the last 24 hours. I think everybody in crypto is waiting for old season, Right? Or a lot of people in crypto waiting for old season, right?
- [40:29]
Dennis
Yeah, I think that's a fair assessment.
- [40:32]
Gaurav
Thank you, Scott, for putting the race together.
- [40:34]
Ron Hammond
Looking forward to the next one.
- [40:35]
Matthew
See you guys soon.
- [40:36]
Dennis
Awesome, thanks.
- [40:39]
Matthew
I have a few questions. Number one, do you define alt season the same way that I define old season? And to me, alt season is when altcoins as a collective outperform bitcoin.
- [40:50]
Dennis
Yes, I agree with that. It would be a major drop in bitcoin dominance.
- [40:56]
Matthew
Okay, so Lyn, let's just work that out. What it means mathematically, it means that on a relative basis, more money must flow into bitcoin, the altcoin, and into altcoins and into bitcoin. So as an example, bitcoin has a true a 2 trillion dollar market cap. ETH has a 300 billion dollar market cap. So you'd say that, if any. So there's a 61 difference. Right. So you say that for every billion dollars that flows into bitcoin, more than $150 million needs to flow into ETH. Right. So on a relative basis, more money needs to flow into altcoins and into Bitcoin. Does that make sense?
- [41:29]
Dareth
Make sense?
- [41:30]
Gaurav
No, because you could flow money out of bitcoin too.
- [41:33]
Matthew
Just because you talk one up doesn't mean.
- [41:39]
Dennis
Conceptually. Yes.
- [41:41]
Matthew
Okay, now if the inflows into Bitcoin are coming from the fixed income world, MicroStrategy and the ETFs, which is absolutely, absolutely huge. Right. In other words, we've never had this situation in crypto where the mismatch in terms of the ability of money to flow into the market was so mismatched in bitcoin's favor, right? So like, we've never been in a situation where you've got fixed income, which is being allocated through Sailor, you've got ETF money, which is being allocated through the etf, right? So question is whether or not we can actually theoretically even see a real old season. Because I don't mathematically, if I just look at the inflows in the last couple of months, right, sailors bought $29 billion worth of Bitcoin, of which he bought 20 in the last couple of months. Right. In order for altcoins to match that, you would need on a relative basis, given that bitcoin dominance is now 50, 58 or whatever else, you would need the flows into altcoins to match something like $50 billion. So you'd need, because it's more or less equal, you're taking the flows from the ETF plus the flows from. From sailor plus plus you'd need 50, 60, $70 billion to flow into altcoins in the same time period. I don't see, I don't see a world in this kind of environment where on a relative basis, altcoins can get more money than bitcoin. And so I'm starting to question. I'm not saying altcoins won't go up. Altcoins will go up and they'll go up a lot. But I don't see a world where we get another altcoin run in 2025, because I just don't see how we possibly get enough ETFs and inflow abilities into altcoins that can, on a relative basis, outpace bitcoin. I just don't see it.
- [43:36]
Dareth
Trump needs to have more children and mint some more memes.
- [43:41]
Matthew
But even if you take that memes, I actually looked at total three and total three stayed exactly the same.
- [43:49]
Dennis
That was obviously money coming from other altcoins into Truck. That was a bunch of crypto native gamblers who saw the new shiny thing and just exited one thing to go into another. Although, do we know that when a brand new token like that is launched, it's actually factored for in total three?
- [44:06]
Matthew
Well, I mean, you can just see where the money is coming from. Total 3 actually went slightly down and you can just see where the money's coming from. It's moving from one place to another. That's it.
- [44:15]
Simon
That's right.
- [44:15]
Matthew
We didn't increase the market cap of crypto. In fact, you could see it if you look at the bubbles that there was one green Bubble. And there was every other bubble around it was red.
- [44:23]
Dennis
It's like one bubble and down bad. Like, you know, 15, 20% drop.
- [44:28]
Dareth
So do we. Do we know how much of it was like card payments or anything from new people?
- [44:34]
Matthew
180. So we know moonshot did 180,187, 400 new users. And in terms of volume, now the problem with volume is it's also people selling. They did $750 million, so almost a billion dollars in volume on Trump.
- [44:57]
Dennis
Significant, but a fraction of what was being done. Right, interesting.
- [45:01]
Dareth
So you need basically Bitcoin ETFs for people to start selling and diversifying into other ETFs as more of them get launched.
- [45:12]
Matthew
Yeah, exactly. But I don't see a world in 2025 where there is a way for the pipes to turn on so that altcoins get more than Bitcoin.
- [45:23]
Gaurav
It's the ultimate attention economy. If bitcoin is getting the attention because of institutional players like BlackRock or additional ETFs or whatever the mechanism is, even like a top four or five tokens, there's just no room. There's no breathing room or oxygen for altcoins and there's no net new capital that flows in from all these poor retail investors. Nobody in America has any money.
- [45:43]
Dennis
Right.
- [45:43]
Gaurav
We talk about this all the time. So there's just no net new money.
- [45:47]
Dennis
I agree, but we didn't have the ETFs in microstrategy buying billions necessarily trickling down in past cycles, and we ended up with alt seasons. So I think we're under.
- [45:59]
Ron Hammond
But you had Covid stimulus.
- [46:00]
Dennis
I know, but I think we're going to get stimulus. But I think we're underestimating how much new money can flow into this space with even one small catalyst. I mean, last time, literally, people forget that NBA Top Shot effectively was a catalyst to launch NFTs. And all this new money came in for a bunch of people that had never even heard of bitcoin, kind of through the side door. And there were millions of people who literally lined up for centralized exchanges and couldn't get accounts for three months simply because they wanted access to Doge, which you couldn't buy on a Dex. The difference being now that you can just launch a DOGE competitor in five seconds and buy it without a exchange account. But I think that it's a net positive whether that money can directly flow or not, that there's a ton of money that will likely come into this space as it becomes more mainstream again for this cycle. Also I have my doubts on the Trump token and I've been saying this for days. Just because Moonshot got accounts doesn't mean they're new people. Right? I think there was a lot of people. I was. And I said, I told this story that day. I was sitting with someone like at a dinner and he was like, I want to buy this Trump thing. And he's even pretty crypto native, has Solana, but he didn't have access to it on his phone and just signed up for Moonshot and like bought some. He's a guy who's obviously not a new entrant to the space. Steve, go ahead.
- [47:24]
Simon
Yeah, I was just going to talk a little bit about the ETFs, because by the way, almost everything that you and Rand have said I agree with. There isn't a whole lot of new retail money coming into the space. It's all gone. Right. So it's just people moving money around. And I don't see a whole lot more coming in in 2025. You know, those of us have been around since, you know, 2013, have seen multiple cycles. Here we are, you know, 2013, 2017, 2021, we're 2025. We'll likely see a top here, but not a lot of new money coming in from retail. Where the new money is coming in is actually into the ETS via institutional investors as well as. But that money won't be more allocations into. You know, some of them made initial allocations last year, some of them are making higher allocations this year. So they already have a pot of money. They're just, just reallocating it away from other risk assets and into Bitcoin and what other ETFs might come into the market this year. Most of the time it's going to be into Bitcoin though, Right? Because a lot of them have analyzed bitcoin. They understand it. They finally have an ETF one year track record, higher allocations or initial allocations. But we will see new money coming in from the institutional financial advisor side into the new ETFs that come along, as long as they're legitimate. I don't see a lot going into Trump etf, but potentially into things like, you know, Seoul or XRP or Litecoin if they get launched this year. But, but yeah, we, we are at the top of the cycle. And if you want to talk about strategic bitcoin reserves, I've got more to say on that.
- [49:12]
Matthew
Yeah, I, I think the one thing that you left out there is that if you look at the number of tokens that if you look at the previous cycle, the number of tokens that we had like 20,000 or 30,000 tokens when we finished the cycle. Today, there's 20 or 30,000 tokens that can launch a day on Pump Fund and each one of them starts to drain, even albeit minimal liquidity. I mean, if I look at the Pump Fund stats, pump funds launched 6 million new tokens this year. 6 million. And that's just Pump Fund that doesn't take virtuals into account and all the Pump Fund competitors and all that kind of stuff. So you've got the same kind of retail attention but you've got a million times the number of tokens. It just, the math just doesn't work.
- [49:54]
Dennis
I know, but at the same time you did have this moment where XRP, Algorand, HBAR, these dinosaurs with meaningful market cap pulled 5 to 7 X's in a matter of weeks.
- [50:07]
Matthew
Yeah, but that's not. I mean, yeah, the alt season is when all the tokens go up or the majority of the tokens go up. Right.
- [50:16]
Dennis
Yeah. Listen, there's too many tokens for that. But I think maybe if you siphon it down to like 200 meaningful tokens. I don't even know how you define that. We can see that kind of action. But yes, it's been very obviously it's been very segmented. But yes, 6 million pump fund tokens, but not a single person can name a fraction of a percent of those because it's just people trying to pull something off. Right. So I think you still, like, we should see value accrue to things with meaningful market cap that are not complete jokes. At some point.
- [50:51]
Host
Yes.
- [50:52]
Matthew
You got to back the winners.
- [50:53]
Dennis
You.
- [50:53]
Matthew
This is really a cycle where you have to back.
- [50:55]
Dennis
Yeah, that's right. I don't think, I don't think you can literally throw a dart at anything and wait this time, which you could in the past. You know that I do agree. Matthew.
- [51:06]
Gaurav
Is there any concern or any thoughts on the. The total number, number of capital that could be pulled from AI agents in this space? Like maybe they're better traders than us and they're just going to take all the retail money or they're going to suck liquidity out and keep it or do other things with it. I just wonder if that's going to be a potential blocker or a potential bump in the road here. When we look at like where this capital goes, you're going to have all these agents out there that get. Like you said, there's millions of them out there and they're going to trade all the time or they're going to have their own ecosystems and people are going to put money in there or whatever the case is and they're going to act totally autonomously and they could hold tokens, they could buy stuff in different ways. I just wonder if anybody's concerned about AI aggregating all this capital.
- [51:48]
Matthew
I think it's great. I think that crypto is a usability problem, a user interface problem, and the less that we can deal with actual crypto and actual crypto protocols, the better. Let the AI agents do it in a real world. We should tell the AI agent, go and find me the best returns for my usdc, park the money there's and keep me updated on my daily returns. And that's pretty much all we should be doing. And all the bridging across networks and the yield farming and everything else should actually be done by AI. I don't see any reason why humans should get involved in a process where it's so open and prone to human error.
- [52:23]
Dennis
Yeah, I think that bit will become your ria. Sorry, Matthew, I didn't mean to say that you're going to get replaced, but it should be managing your portfolio and rebalancing in a tax efficient way, depending on your jurisdiction and kind of just managing it for you.
- [52:41]
Gaurav
I'll say it like, I keep coming back to this, but people thinking that like AI is going to do this for you in perpetuity or in some, in some way, AI is going to be very PVP in the sense that like if everybody uses AI, AI useless in balancing your portfolio or trying to like make any arbitrage opportunities. So that is not really a great argument. And when I think people say like, yeah, you take AI agents and go put them to go do something that is completely different than an autonomous AI agent that has created its own company, that doesn't employ people, that sucks the liquidity out of the system, has its own balance sheet and can do whatever it wants with it. That is completely different and that is going to be continuing and proliferating and you're going to see agents employ people. All these things are coming. And I'm not talking about us dictating where AI goes, I'm talking about AI agents autonomously doing these things on their own.
- [53:34]
Dennis
Yeah, by the way, I totally agree with you on the trading side. I know that everybody is going to have an AI agent that's going to go actively into the market and aggressively trade and that's still a zero sum game. Someone's AI agent has to lose to somebody else's AI agent. But I think from a larger perspective, the AI can do better analysis maybe on your overall portfolio in a slow and more meaningful way or as a tool for someone who, you know, understands that.
- [54:04]
Matthew
You see.
- [54:04]
Dennis
Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, go ahead, Rin. No, I'm good, Gaurav, go ahead. I talk to you now, Gaurav, in some public forum. We talk about AI every single day now.
- [54:17]
David
Yeah. It seems like we talk more on Twitter spaces, I mean X spaces than we talk personally. So it's good. We're bonding. So two things. One, all this, this idea of AI taking over and trading, I always use my favorite example, which is OpenAI. The company that is a leader in AI is building the best models, not limited to language, but also research. And if they are the best and they still don't have the most algorithmically strong bot that can go in and dominate the stock trading markets and the most liquid markets where there are already successful algorithmic traders, then we really have to take a step back and think if the trading and profit making world really would be solved with the current state of AI. And then once we are sensibly thinking about it, probably project a timeline on how far that is. So that's a practical, I would say idea I want to shoot to people here. Right. So, and, and if I was to comment on that idea with my, I mean let's say loud mouth, I would say that's not anywhere near. And like you said, Scott, it's, it'll still be a zero sum game where somebody has to lose. So it'll be, it'll still be this art of speculation on who is actively building their models to beat others. While there is no limit to human intelligence, someone will outbeat others and the market remains the same speculative, end of the day. So that's not going anywhere. I think we are good where we are currently and it's going to be the same place for a long time now. I'm literally walking off a meeting here in Davos with America's largest mortgage and finance manager, the owner of that company. And the reason they are big enough is because they have a machine learning and neural net model only to to evaluate meaningful insights. And guess what?
- [56:18]
Dennis
How brav. You're breaking up pretty bad.
- [56:20]
David
Sounds like a. Oops, sorry. Can you hear me now? Hello?
- [56:25]
Dennis
Yeah, it's a lot better. Yeah, you lost signal for a minute. Go ahead.
- [56:28]
David
Yeah, yeah, so I'm saying, I mean, did you Hear the example I made with the, with one of the largest mortgage management company of the U.S. we.
- [56:36]
Dennis
Heard you were meeting him and then we didn't hear this. Ye.
- [56:40]
David
So I'm saying they have implemented AI and have developed core machine learning models which has made them this big, but still, guess what they use it for? They only use it for active communication and customer support. Right. They are still not using it to trade because that's still not possible even in the most simplistic trading activity of mortgage management and remanagement and rebalancing. So I think let's take a pause on this utopian idea of trading bots taking over and employing humans. I think we are still far away from that. And I'm sorry to be straightforward, contrary to the honest opinion.
- [57:20]
Dennis
I don't mean to interrupt, but we do have the official announcement from Senator Lummis about 10 minutes ago. Somehow missed it. Honored to chair the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets. You can see it pinned above. So that was officially the announcement. The vote was 10. She obviously won. Anyone who wants to revisit why that is so important can listen obviously to the beginning of the conversation. I just wanted to make sure, before we continue talking about AI, that we did actually break the news that we were breaking officially. Even though we had it earlier as speculation and we knew the vote was happening. I think that vote was a foregone conclusion. So I think we had it pretty much. Pretty much nailed there. Gaurav, did I interrupt you or you finished there with your thoughts?
- [58:03]
David
Almost done with that part of, of the utopian idea of AI taking over and employing humans.
- [58:10]
Dennis
I don't want to work.
- [58:11]
Gaurav
It's going to happen. It's going to happen. It's not utopian at all. They've already created their own companies. They've already created their own balance sheets. Like, it's not at all a far stretch to say, hey, we need a customer success person because we don't know how to talk to people. So it would be really great if we could have a customer success agent on our side. It's not YouTube.
- [58:33]
Matthew
Didn't an AI yesterday employ. Didn't an AI yesterday deliver pizza to someone? Get a pizza delivered? And didn't. Wasn't. Isn't part of that? Employing humans to deliver the pizza?
- [58:46]
David
Yeah.
- [58:46]
Dennis
Cool.
- [58:47]
David
I mean, I was talking about rebalance. I mean, trading on your behalf and going to the markets and trading against human traders making more profits and, you know, shifting the game towards AI driven profits than human driven companies.
- [59:04]
Dennis
I do not want to end up as a pizza delivery guy for our AI overlords personally and just say that that is not the future that I'm looking for here. Even if my AI pays for it in crypto.
- [59:18]
David
Yeah, and if you're getting to that, look, I mean if that's the level of discussion, then I would say. Don't you see games using and blockchains employing humans? I mean there are bounty programs across the entire gamefi of the last Bull Run bull season where millions and millions of humans were only trying to play a stupid shitty game with zero UX to make that like half a dollar or a half a cent worth of incentive. And then that happened with step in humans employed to run.
- [59:51]
Matthew
Always the voice of reason. Always like the.
- [59:54]
Dennis
Every time.
- [59:55]
Matthew
The balloon. Every time, bro.
- [59:58]
David
Thank you, brother. I actually want to hold that repetition at the cost of being called an.
- [60:03]
Matthew
I think it's great. I think it's great. Sometimes we need to get specifically in crypto. We need to come back down to earth. I'm just watching Twitter right now and you have the whole of Twitter. Trump is speaking to the president of el Salvador at 3:30 or something and everyone just thinks that they're only going to talk about bitcoin. I'm almost willing to bet that they don't even talk about bitcoin at all.
- [60:27]
Dennis
Yeah, I mean, I think you and Simon sum that up well. I think, yeah, immigration is probably a bigger issue there.
- [60:33]
Matthew
Yeah, yeah, bro, I want to talk to you about cartels and stuff like that also. Yeah, just tell me about bitcoin again.
- [60:38]
Dennis
Just like, can I get some of those volcano bonds? Can we launch a volcano?
- [60:44]
Matthew
Yeah, remember that bitcoin you bought while you were sitting on the toilet the other day and you announced it? What do you think?
- [60:50]
Dennis
Yeah, Simon, go ahead.
- [60:53]
Dareth
Yeah, if you're. If you're done with that topic. I just wanted to bring up something. I'm not sure if everyone's noticed, but there's been a new wave of FUD that is trying to scare new people to bitcoin around. Can people stop saying that there's a cap of 21 million. Bitcoin is like the new FUD. I just wanted to put that to bed. That what they're referring to is that when BlackRock has to give full disclosure, they obviously have to talk about every type of risk. So one of those risks is that the entire consensus of the bitcoin community, including users, miners and node operators, if they all decide that they would like to hard fork bitcoin and increase the cap to above 21 million, which is a probability, which is a probability of absolutely zero because that would be the one thing that would make everybody sell their bitcoin. Then there is not a cap of 21 million. But just because BlackRock owns Bitcoin through the ETF in custody that belongs to somebody else legally and they. If you think that they're trying to acquire 95% of all the bitcoin and persuade the vast majority of bitcoin to come out of self custody, even then it's not proof of stake. So then they'd have to simultaneously acquire all the mining companies in America. And even then if they acquired 100% of all the mining companies, it's still only approximately 40% of the hash power. So they then have to co opt all of the mining pools and simultaneously get all the node operators and persuade them to not do a user.
- [62:41]
Dennis
And by the way, and then after they do all of that, they crash the asset they've been hoarding to zero because nobody gives a shit anymore. So yeah, I think it's pretty unlikely. And Simon, it's funny, I just want to say, because they made Blackrock a few, maybe a month ago, a month and a half ago, made this incredible three minute video on what is bitcoin. It was like, excellent, excellent. But then people freaked out because in the small print on the disclaimer it said that.
- [63:03]
Dareth
Yeah, exactly. So look, look, Bitcoin is capped at 21 million and there's no one player that can change that. It would have to be absolutely universal consensus because it's built into the design of bitcoin, which is why it's so different and why it's not proof of stake and why it didn't pivot for the ESG narrative and why no matter what anyone wants, if they want something like that, to get consensus is impossible.
- [63:35]
Dennis
Yeah. Dareth, you joined late. Any thoughts on everything we're discussing here?
- [63:40]
Gareth
Yeah, sorry I'm very late. I've been running around Davos for the World Economic Forum this week, so it's been, it's been pretty crazy.
- [63:48]
Dareth
Are they discussing bitcoin cap to 42 million?
- [63:52]
Gareth
No, they're not.
- [63:53]
David
But Gareth, we should catch up.
- [63:55]
Gareth
Yeah, I mean like, just for anyone who hasn't been paying attention this week, weeks. So I've, I've been covering the World Economic Forum and I had a press pass, so I managed to actually sit in on the crypto at a Crossroads panel that was discussing inside the World Economic Forum. Brian Armstrong was there, Anthony Scaramucci, Jennifer. Jennifer Johnson from Franklin Templeton and South Africa's Reserve bank governor, they went through a long sort of conversation about, you know, like the positive changes in the US with, with Trump's presidency and they didn't mention anything about bitcoin. So they opened up the, the floor to, to questions and I managed to, you know, pose a question to the panel about the potential of a bitcoin strategic reserve. And if Trump's meme coin had sort of undermined, undermined that. And Brian Armstrong, you know, was really great to actually say that. You know, he's, he's pretty confident that Senator Lummis will, will get this across the line. And you know, we've, we've seen the news today that's just come out on that, but, but really interesting just on the, the 21 million cap and people not really understanding bitcoin. South Africa's Reserve bank governor, Mesekha Kanyako replied after my question and basically said, I don't see the merits of a, of a bitcoin strategic reserve. And, you know, if you're going to hold bitcoin, you know, like, why not.
- [65:11]
Dennis
Wait, that was you? It was me.
- [65:14]
Gareth
It was my beef reserve.
- [65:16]
Dennis
Yeah, the beef reserve.
- [65:17]
Gareth
So, yeah, I mean, my question sparked that whole debate at, with. You can go and check it out on my timeline. The video went viral. It's nearly 500,000 views. I think Mario retweeted it earlier this week as well. But yeah, I mean, my question, I, I was really happy to actually get the chance to get the World Economic Forum talking about bitcoin again, because I think the biggest problem we've had over the years is that institutions like that will speak about blockchain and they'll speak about all the, you know, like CBDCs and I mean, stable coins are great for our industry, but anything that you don't have control of or they don't have control of, they don't want to speak about. And bitcoin was one of those things. So to finally get a chance to get the World Economic Forum talking about bitcoin, I think was a massive win for the industry. And I want to take my hat off to Brian Armstrong for, you know, like, basically telling the South African Reserve bank governor, like, hey, listen, you know, like government should consider a bitcoin reserve because is, it's provably finite. It's, you know, very divisible. It's very, very, you know, like it's very easy to transfer it across space and time. And you know, it's digital gold. And if the US does go ahead and passes a bitcoin strategic reserve, everyone's going to follow suit. Every nation state is going to have to, is going to have to do that. And in the following day I was inside the forum and South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa held a very short press conference at the end of his stay. And I attended this press conference and I got to ask him at the end, you know, I actually asked him if he would consider launching a Ramaphosa meme coin. But more importantly I asked him if South Africa would consider a bitcoin strategic reserve if the US passed it. And he basically said, look, everyone has to pay attention to cryptocurrencies now with everything that's happening. And no, he's not launching a Ramaphosa meme coin. But it's been a hugely interesting week being here in Davos and actually getting a chance to get bitcoin being spoken about at this, you know, this forum. I mean I don't care much for the World Economic Forum. I think, you know, they, and they only care about a globalist agenda. But we need more people in our industry to get up and start talking about the things that matter. And you know, that's, that's bitcoin.
- [67:34]
Dennis
Like, well, Larry thinks there, right? I mean Larry thinks they're saying.
- [67:40]
Gareth
Precisely, you know, and I mean like, you know, if BlackRock is doing what they're doing, they have to start talking about this stuff inside the World Economic Forum and other institutions. It's not just a pick rock, it's not a Ponzi scheme. You know, bitcoin is decentralized money and people want these things. So it's been, yeah, it's been a really interesting week and I'm pretty hopeful. Like my, my major takeaway is that there's a really, a lot of positive sentiment from a lot of these, you know, United States crypto related businesses. Coinbase, Franklin Templeton from a, you know, Trad5 perspective are pretty, pretty excited about it. Jennifer Johnson said some really great stuff on stage. Scaramucci, you know, Mooch, as always is, is pretty bullish on everything and he really had some great stuff to say inside the forum as well. So I think fine. I don't know, I, I just think like, like 2025 is finally the year. I think we've, we've arrived at a point where everyone's going to start talking about bitcoin and it's not just this fringe idea anymore. It's, it's part and parcel of everything. And I'm crossing My fingers that we do get a bitcoin strategic reserve, and this whole industry just explodes from there.
- [68:48]
Dennis
It's.
- [68:49]
Gareth
It's really exciting.
- [68:50]
Dareth
And how many times did you hear the joke about the beef reserve being proof stake in cold storage?
- [68:57]
Gareth
Yeah, it was so good. It was really, honestly, pretty crazy. There were a lot of South African publications that ran the story and like, the. My tweet alone, the amount of people that were just like, I can't believe the governor doesn't understand what it is.
- [69:12]
Dennis
And.
- [69:12]
Gareth
And also just making fun of him in the beef reserve. I mean, look, South Africa's got fantastic boltong, so we're already good at, you know, preserving our beef.
- [69:25]
Dennis
Gareth and I guess, Gaurav, you're on the ground there too, the two of you, without pushing the agenda on your part. Gareth. And obviously the. The one panel kind of about crypto, specifically, how much would you say you're actually hearing about it without asking the question, you know, in passing conversations, other panels or leaders bring it up unprompted?
- [69:47]
David
Yeah, I'll tell.
- [69:49]
Gareth
Go for it, Gaurav.
- [69:52]
David
I think there are two. Two aspects of it. I think I'll go with the one sample that Anthony told me. So I was like, Anthony Scaramucci was with me yesterday for four, four hours and the day before that. And one of the things he said as a friend was, gaurav, it seems like in my 18 years of attending Davos, this is when I've got the most popular. And then his CEO, I mean, Skybridge CEO, his friend and colleagues kept telling me that this time for us, we're always late by an hour to wherever we want to go because people are stopping him everywhere to take pictures. And there's a tweet on my Twitter line on my timeline from yesterday where we were just walking from one place to another, and literally, the economy Minister of uae, Minister of Economy called him out. And I mean, of course they're friends and we took pictures and we had a good long on the street. And by the like. Okay, yeah, thank you. Scott posted it, reposted it. So, you know, they were like an assembly of people, and everybody knew about bitcoin and all of that. So that's the first plot on how crypto and crypto related people are becoming extremely popular. The second thing is when people ask me, you know, what's happening in crypto and why is vef, what is VEP doing? What is the popularity of crypto? I keep telling him, yes, crypto has been in Davos, but this was the first ever ever, ever official crypto discussion panel in version, you know, Ripple Chief sitting on the stage and you know, coindesk people sitting on the stage. Those were not crypto discussions. This was a crypto discussion. Like they discussed bitcoin, they discussed crypto, they discussed intricacies supplies. Very, very crypto native discussion. And I think that is the of crypto over to you today.