← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Huge Opportunity For Bitcoin Traders Is Coming!
00:47:22
Huge Opportunity For Bitcoin Traders Is Coming!
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
Bitcoin is like a coiled spring nearing burst of price volatility. This not for me. This from coindesk, hence the title. A huge opportunity for bitcoin traders is coming. I guess we can discuss later with Dan whether that means it's going to be on buying a big dip or buying a big rip. But I think that we all agree that it is bitcoin's time to shine. With regulatory and legislative clarity coming and adoption happening all over the world now on Thursdays, I've got a regular guest who's going to be joining us besides Dan, which is my good friend Adon Yago from bitcoin os. We have a lot to talk about. This is going to become a bitcoin focused show on Thursdays and I absolutely can't wait. Let's go. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like, button. Gonna go ahead and bring on Iago right now. You were a very familiar face on the channel for a long time anyways, and then you started actually doing a recorded show. But then we realized probably a lot easier for you just to come on here on Thursdays.
- [01:24]
Adon Yago
Hey, Scott, I'm coming to you from Crypto Valley in Souk. I was just at the world's worst party. It's like designed to be the world's worst party. It's the, the divorce conference.
- [01:35]
Scott Melker
Man, that was terrible yesterday. You know Gorov, right? Do you know Gorav Dube? Yeah, yeah. So he was there obviously as well. And we had him on the show and he was standing out in the snow like a local news reporter like report. It was the funniest thing we've definitely ever seen on the, on the show.
- [01:51]
Adon Yago
But it could be the next cnbc.
- [01:54]
Scott Melker
It was not on purpose. I didn't know he would do that. He just showed up that way. But it's, it's interesting because I would say that as you alluded to the World Economic Forum, kind of like the worst place on earth for people who believe in decentralization and bitcoin and freedom and libertarian values. But it seems like everyone goes, what are you guys doing there?
- [02:15]
Adon Yago
Well, I was in the area, so I just stopped by. I was actually in St. Moritz and. Yeah, but you know, it's like, it's kind of. I see it as like a sort of like corporate tourism. Go, go to see the mothership. So I did. It's really interesting. Like there's like, it's a sleepy little village which has zero capacity for this size of conference. And so you have these like 400 year old Swiss houses that have been completely boarded up with giant billboards for like companies, consulting groups and countries. It's the worst.
- [02:53]
Scott Melker
Did they tell you that you would own nothing and like it, or that you would eat bugs and like it?
- [02:58]
Adon Yago
Well, actually I ended up orange peeling a whole bunch of suits. So like, I just, like I was wandering around talking to people and I would start conversations around bitcoin and they were like, I don't know, I don't understand the bitcoin. And then, you know, half an hour later they're like, oh, wow, I can use this for tax evasion. I win.
- [03:17]
Scott Melker
Great. We're going back to our original ethos. As Ross walks out of jail, like, we're going to start hearing about how it's only for criminals and tax evaders once again. So listen, I mean, I know that you and I don't generally focus when we talk on short term bitcoin price because it's kind of irrelevant. But, you know, it's still worth noting that sentiment is still very bullish here. Right? I mean, I think everyone agrees Trump is just getting going, ETFs are just getting going, institutionalization is just getting going. And this is kind of going to be crypto's golden era. As it says here, as we alluded to in the title, if you're checking charts, it's been trading pretty sideways and we know that volatility eventually comes back, so hopefully that's to the upside. But either way, listen, whether price goes up or goes down, right now seems to be a great time for people who aren't in it to start taking a serious look, as you said, even the ones who want to tax evade.
- [04:11]
Adon Yago
Yeah, look, the truth is that we're going through an incredible period because bitcoin spawned the fastest growing economy that has ever existed. Right. The crypto economy is, I don't know, close to a five, four and a half trillion dollar economy right now that happened in 16 years. Sixteen years ago it was a group of cipher punks on IRC who. And those weirdos thought this was a dumb idea. And now it's a four and a half trillion dollar economy. And when you take into account the fact that this entire economy grew up during a period where it was under US Sanction in the same way that, you know, the United States has been sanctioning Russia, Iran, North Korea and bitcoin, and it just lifted those sanctions. So I, I think the degree of explosive growth that we're going to see is unprecedented, is not priced in. And that's even without talking about things like strategic bitcoin reserve. Just the fact that this giant economy in the sky is no longer being sanctioned is huge.
- [05:26]
Scott Melker
Right. So I want to talk about where that value is going to end up when it eventually comes on chain. So we have a clip here of Larry Fink who is actually in Davos and spoke and is mentioning crypto and bitcoin, which is not something that you've generally heard on stage at the World Economic Forum, but in a conversation with Bloomberg he had this to say. I'm just going to play it really quickly so people can see it is.
- [05:48]
Larry Fink
Going to play a big role. Digitization of currency. Digitization of. I'm a big believer in this. One thing will change. Bloomberg even I believe we're going to be in the cutting edge of tokenizing bonds and stocks. And we have the technology now. The fact that we are now moving forward in tokenization, every bond and stock is crazy. We should be moving towards that frontier. Obviously there's winners and losers and all that, but we need to be prepared for the tokenization and it would democratize more finance if we tokenized bonds.
- [06:24]
Scott Melker
Hearing him talk about democratizing finance. Okay, whatever. But listen, this is coming, right? And even before they filed for a Bitcoin Spot ETF, if people were actually reading their yearly memos, BlackRock was talking about tokenization. Even before they were talking about how he got orange peeled and started talking like he was satoshi. So the question then becomes if you have him talking about it's going to happen, that's my base case. First of all, I don't know on what timeline or if it will be competitive or it will actually be a wholesale replacement, but it's coming. Where is it going to happen? Bitcoiners. Well, some bitcoiners want nothing to be built on bitcoin. Some bitcoiners want all of this to accrue to bitcoin. And then you have Larry Fink, who's tokenized, build on Ethereum already. We could talk about that fud. And a lot of people say, hey, it's going to come to a Solana or an Aptos or a sui. So listen, you obviously believe it's going to come to bitcoin, right? You're building tools for that to happen. But how does that happen? How does the tokenization of real world assets come to the right chain per se?
- [07:28]
Adon Yago
Well, I'm actually going to take a little bit of a different sort of answer. I, I want to take a step back, right? Everyone thinks about this in terms of we've got all of these different chains and they're fighting amongst each other for market share. And I don't think that that's really the situation going forward. And the reason it's not the situation going forward is because Bitcoin itself is now getting programmability. And at the same time that Bitcoin is getting programmability, we're seeing the explosion of the offchain world, right? More and more of the activity is happening offchain. The primary driver of this is ZK proofs. And the truth is we're unbundling the chains, right? So today 90% of the activity on, you know, the Ethereum ecosystem isn't happening on Ethereum main chain. And increasingly it's not even happening on rollups, it's happening on applications or services that are built, you know, entirely off chain. And I think that's the future. One day we should talk about that more in detail because it's a, it's a pretty mind blowing concept. But look, I, I had a conversation with a guy from blackrock and he was telling me in Blackrick, we've got basically two teams that are working on crypto. We've got one team which is the sales desk and they're doing the ETF and they're selling OTC to clients and they, they're the ones who are actually bringing in money and have actual customers. And then we have another team which we call the R D team and they're building tokenization systems and our defi systems and they're doing all kinds of experience experiments. And you know, they've experimented in Ethereum and an Arbitrum and on Solana. And the problem we have is that our clients are not interested in any of these experiments. What they want is Bitcoin and btc. And so what we're hoping for is to find a way that we can bring these two teams together so that the R and D team can actually start selling to our clients. And the missing link there is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the institutionalized chain, right? Like people think about, XRP is like bank chain, but Bitcoin is cypher, punk chain and bankchain all rolled into one. And now Bitcoin is getting the capacity to have more programmability, more tokens. And so what I think we're going to see is we're going to see Bitcoin become the ledger of record for anything of significant value. And then a lot of the compute potentially will happen on other chains like Sui or you know, Arbitrum or whatever, which, and they're going to need to integrate into Bitcoin. And so in a way what I'm anticipating is that basically all of crypto is going to become a layer two to Bitcoin. And, and Bitcoin is going to play one really, really important role, which is it's going to be the global ledger, it's going to be the global settlement system.
- [10:22]
Scott Melker
It'll be like the bank of New York Mellon or State street to all the other banks and companies that are doing financial services. That makes a lot of sense. It's interesting. He's obviously been somewhat bullish on Ethereum right now. Ethereum is going through like an existential crisis. Right. So you have, maybe you can summarize it, but I just want to point out this article that was kind of a part of it, which I'm laughing at. Ethereum gets Wall Street Salesforce as token lags Bitcoin. I don't know if you've seen this, but the Ethereum foundation literally is funding a company called Ether Realize, I believe. Yeah, Ether realize with an 8 person sales staff whose job is literally basically to go promote Ethereum all over Wall street. Which, I mean it makes sense for somebody to promote Ethereum ETFs. It's a product that's been approved, it's out there. But you kind of think about like, who would hire someone to go promote Bitcoin Spot ETFs, like there's no foundation or person who could do that. It's just a very, very different value proposition at this point.
- [11:26]
Adon Yago
Look, I mean Ethereum is stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand it is, you know, trying to claim the position as the most decentralized compute layer in crypto, but it's not as decentralized as Bitcoin. And on the other hand it's trying to provide, you know, trading experiences, defi experiences, DGEN experiences, meme coin experiences, but it's not as degen as Solana. And so I tweeted a while ago, Ethereum specializes in being the number two blockchain in every category. And that, that, that, that's a tough spot to be because you know, you can always just use the number one for whatever category that you're interested in. So I, I, I, I'm, you know, right now I think Ethereum's trying to find itself and the things are getting he the one person in Ethereum who's basically been untouchable has been Vitalik and he, his leadership which has been pretty light touch, has really held that community together. And I, I have a great deal of respect for Vitalik. I think he's got great vision. But the problem is that vision doesn't matter. When price refuses to go up, people get frustrated, people attack him. And so he's beaten under attack from Ethereum in a way that's never happened before. And, and a, who's the head of the foundation who's a very, very sweet and intelligent person, very thoughtful person is also under attack. And, and you know, basically the toxicity that we saw sort of emerging Bitcoin during Bitcoin civil war, I'm starting to see early pieces of that in Ethereum. So yeah, I mean I heard there.
- [13:17]
Scott Melker
That someone, the guy from Lido or something was trying to form Ethereum Foundation.
- [13:20]
Adon Yago
2 yeah, so exactly that, that's where we are. This ultimately could help decentralize Ethereum more because right now it certainly falls behind on the decentralization front. Look, I mean you've got a problem, right? The, the reason that people would want to use a decentralized ledger is because it's incorruptible, it's not controlled by their enemies, it's not controlled by their competitors. Ethereum is clearly controlled by someone. And so it doesn't reach that level of security, it doesn't reach that level of credible neutrality. And so actually hiring a sales team to go out and try and sell that makes you more similar to Solana than to Bitcoin. And that is a very, very difficult place for Ethereum to be. Right? Ethereum can do better. Ethereum is never going to beat Solana on sort of, you know, speed and sales team and bd. The Ethereum foundation just simply does not have the cultural cojones and hustle to have a better sales team than Solana. So if that's the market they're going to try and compete on, I think they're going to lose.
- [14:35]
Scott Melker
So if these institutions want to start tokenizing stocks and bonds now story here. Real world asset TVL rises to 7.3 billion billion as government securities dominate. I've seen numbers actually as high as 11 or 12 billion. BlackRock's funds, treasuries obviously pretty vanilla things that are being tokenized but starting to be a meaningful amount of money if they want to do it. Now could it actually be done on Bitcoin or does Ethereum just kind of become the default because it does have a lot of tvl. Right. So, Solana, for all the bluster, there's just not enough TVL for the biggest institutions right now to, you know, safely put that much money, I think, into their ecosystem to tokenize things. Seems like Ethereum still would be kind of the mental default for most institutions.
- [15:24]
Adon Yago
Yeah, I. Bitcoin is not ready right now, but I, I think by the middle of this year it will be ready. So, like the stuff that I'm working on, Bitcoin OS basically brings the ability to issue any kind of token, NFT or, you know, otherwise on Bitcoin, have them be fully programmable, have them interact with smart contracts, and those smart contracts can even be on other chains. This is a new way of thinking about, about Bitcoin, a new way of thinking about crypto. Right. Crypto, which can, It's a, it's a world of crypto which gets rid of trusted bridges and can. And all of these other chains can be compute environments for Bitcoin. I think that's where we're going to end up. The real decisions around tokenization aren't even going to happen in this cycle. It's going to take, I agree with that, four years. So by the time it becomes a real, real conversation, Bitcoin is going to be more than ready. Bitcoin's going to be ready, tested and fortified.
- [16:21]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean, I love the idea of tokenization, but I think it'll be a small experiment for a while here. Especially when you think about the implications and who it replaces. Right. I mean, it's easy to talk about how it's a superior technology, but the largest incumbents in the world, and you're talking about the most powerful institutions in the world, are not going to easily let go of this.
- [16:43]
Adon Yago
Right.
- [16:43]
Scott Melker
I mean, you're talking about like Options Clearinghouse and CME and the DTCC that clear trades. They're not talking about tokenization yet. Right.
- [16:55]
Adon Yago
Exactly. So no, it's not like BlackRock are going to FOMO in tokenization in this way. That's a, that's a much longer process. I think the biggest driver actually over the next few years for Bitcoin is going to come from a place that most people aren't expecting. It's not even a strategic bitcoin reserve and it's definitely not tokenization. What I think it is is AI. I think we're going to see massive wealth creation in AI. I think if you look at the different companies, there's just so many of them, they're so competitive and there's open source alternatives, they're all going to be commodified. So it's going to be very hard for, you know, Xai or OpenAI or Google or Meta or, you know, Oracle or Anthropic, you know, to really capture huge amounts of value. They're going to create huge amounts of value, but what they're providing is compute. And compute isn't scarce. What is scarce is bitcoin. And so we're going to see a huge amount of wealth creation over the next few years just from AI. Purely from AI, Right. We've already seen it. Like if you look at the Magnificent Seven, they're $21 trillion in market cap, right? And that's doubled over the last year, right? So we're talking about trillions of value being created. And so much of that is going to spill over to the one thing that is truly scarce, which is bitcoin. So I would watch that space. I think we're going to see trillions move into bitcoin just from AI.
- [18:25]
Scott Melker
How does that happen without bridging?
- [18:27]
Adon Yago
It doesn't. It doesn't. It doesn't. It's going to happen in the oldest way. Basically. People are going to be getting much wealthier. A lot of value is going to be created, but it's going to be, you know, there's, there's two components, right? There's value creation and value capture, right? And just because you've created value, like, I mean, look at Ethereum for example, right? Ethereum's created a lot of value for layer twos. It's capturing almost none of it, right? The layer twos are capturing it. So basically the question is sort of where, where does the bottleneck exist that the money is going to collect it? And what AI is going to do is it's going to commodify compute, it's going to commodify intelligence, it's going to commodify a lot of our jobs, right? But it's going to create a huge amount of wealth. And so where is that wealth going to get part parked? It's going to get parked in the one thing that can't be commodified, which is going to remain scarce. And that's not human labor, it's not capital, it's not compute, it's not even startups. What it is is bitcoin.
- [19:35]
Scott Melker
Yeah, listen, I agree and I just wonder how long it's going to take.
- [19:44]
Adon Yago
Right, yeah, I think we're already starting to see it happen. But, but you know, I Mean like look, let's play out the next three or four years, right? So we've got the bitcoin etf, the bitcoin ETF is going to keep happening. We've got Sailor, Sailor's going to keep buying. We've got the likelihood of an SBR and we've got 11 different U S states that are already, that are already looking to create their own state driven strategic bitcoin reserves. That means that other countries like I know for a fact that Kuwait has bought significant amounts of bitcoin, right? I've heard rumors that Qatar and, and the Emirates have been doing the same thing. We know that El Salvador are doing it, we know the Bahrain are doing it. I've heard that the Dutch are doing it. Right. So it's just the game theory that everyone's been talking about for the last 16 years is playing out. All of these drivers are not going away. I, I, I, you know it feels like this bull cycle, this bull market is different, is taking, is taking a totally different route. It's creating weird creatures like the Trump coin, right. Like nothing feels like the last cycles that we've seen. And I think that one of the ways that this could play out is this ends up being a much bigger and much longer cycle than anyone in this dissipates.
- [21:08]
Scott Melker
I mean right now this barbell, right, it's like bitcoin on one side and the most speculative nonsense, it's bitcoin and right. Very little in between is capturing much value.
- [21:20]
Adon Yago
I'm going to coin man, that's fantastic. You should definitely coin that.
- [21:24]
Scott Melker
Bitcoin, the bitcoin and bull, anyone who's watching somebody clip that and put it on X so I get it out there quick before the show's over. Bitcoin and bullshit. I mean that really has been though what this cycle's been. Listen, I'm not saying that there haven't been, listen, I mean XRP and HBAR and Algo and all these had their like 5,6x moment which was out of nowhere and you've definitely seen like aptos and SUI and you know, a lot of these new kind of layer ones and Solana moving But that's like sub 1% of anything that's claiming to have utility and crypto moving. Like 99 of it is a, is just beaten down.
- [22:04]
Adon Yago
Look, I, I think, I, I honestly think the utility component is coming, I think we weirdly it's coming in later in the cycle. It's like everything's been turned on its head instead of you Know you, the usual cycle would be bitcoin, then sort of dino coins, then sort of altcoins, then sort of meme coin. The defi, then meme coins.
- [22:24]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [22:24]
Adon Yago
Like, everyone knows the waterfall charts. I think this, this one, a lot of that has flipped.
- [22:34]
Scott Melker
I think we should name the Thursday show Bitcoins and Bitcoin. And.
- [22:39]
Adon Yago
Yeah, look, I, I think, I think it's coming. I think part of the reason it's coming is because meme coins are getting saturated. Like, there's 50,000 new meme coins being released every day, and then, and then they all crash because, you know, Trump sort of comes out of nowhere. So people are going to start looking to park the money that they've made in meme coins and something which is going to keep going up, but is less crazy speculative when exactly that happens. I don't know, but I, I would expect that when that starts happening, then we're probably in the second half of the bull.
- [23:18]
Scott Melker
What do you make of Trump launching a meme coin? I have to ask every guest or two.
- [23:26]
Adon Yago
What do I think of Trump's meme coin? Honestly, I think it's good. I think it's terrible for humanity.
- [23:37]
Scott Melker
Listen, I said good for crypto, bad for humanity. That was my first tweet I did about it.
- [23:43]
Adon Yago
Yeah, I think you're spot on.
- [23:46]
Scott Melker
I mean, it's unbelievable. I had a long conversation about it on Spaces and there was a kind of a debate, you know, Haseeb Qureshi, I'm sure, from Dragonfly, who's a brilliant guy, and he was like, this is not a meme coin. Like, I don't know who they're fooling or how they're, like, pretending that if you just keep 80% of something and do it with someone's actual name, that's driving the value. How is that a meme coin?
- [24:10]
Adon Yago
Well, here's my overall take on it. I think we're sort of on the verge of the era of non human intelligence. And so what we're doing is in just before non human intelligence takes over, we're going, you know, to the absolute max with the, with the era of human stupidity. So we've elected Trump, we've now. Trump is now dumping on his, on his voters. It's, it's retardation to the max and it's, you know, it's exactly your bitcoin and bullshit. That's where we are.
- [24:45]
Scott Melker
That's on your show. Yeah. I think that Trump's actually about to speak at the World Economic Forum. I can't even imagine what that's going to look like.
- [24:53]
Adon Yago
I didn't even know he was going. I doesn't sound like.
- [24:56]
Scott Melker
I think it's virtual. Virtual speech. He's going to fly all the way over there, talk to those homeless people.
- [25:03]
Adon Yago
Exactly. Yeah.
- [25:05]
Scott Melker
Not enough trillions in the room. His response, by the way, to the. We played it yesterday, but to like the question about the meme boys, like, yeah, I don't know anything about it, but I heard it was great. And he was like, did I make money? They're like, sir, you made billions. He's like, yeah, peanuts.
- [25:21]
Adon Yago
Yeah.
- [25:23]
Scott Melker
Like, you know, the silver lining, I think that as long as it doesn't rub to zero, it will bring a lot of new people at least into the, you know, into the space.
- [25:32]
Adon Yago
Oh, I was actually seeing some, some data on this. 50 of the wallets that bought in were newly created wallets. So what it looks like. And they're based on a number of different metrics that at least half of the people buying in to Trump Coin had never used crypto or Solana before. This was one of the, this was a mass adoption event for crypto and they're making money now. They're going to start flipping into all kinds of other things. The amount of capital that is coming in from every single direction into this industry right now is unfathomable.
- [26:07]
Scott Melker
How much of it's going to come into this? The new Dogecoin ETF that's been registered for you were around for the early days of Doge.
- [26:17]
Adon Yago
I've been a little bit surprised that Doge hasn't been performing better. Actually.
- [26:22]
Scott Melker
I thought it was going to. Yeah, I thought that it was going to be like the second biggest mover after, you know, Bitcoin in this cycle with musk coming in. Yeah, but Doge ETFs. Is that where we're at?
- [26:33]
Adon Yago
Look, the problem with you and me is we're too, we're too logical. Not we. You have to just throw the dice.
- [26:40]
Scott Melker
You gotta turn your brain off to do. To make money in this space. Many people have said it. Just stop.
- [26:45]
Adon Yago
No, no, that, that, that's, that's definitely not true. All of the people that I know who have made real money in this space have done it by having high conviction bets and holding them forever.
- [26:54]
Scott Melker
Excuse me, to, to make money on the, on the casino side.
- [26:59]
Adon Yago
Yeah, yeah, but I mean, you know, that's easy come, easy go.
- [27:03]
Scott Melker
Yeah, it is. By the way, like, I don't know if you saw this. I just want to mention this just Because I think it's important that people remember that the bigger this space gets, kind of the more you have to be concerned with certainly your opsec, but even your personal security. This was flying around yesterday that Eric Laravec, who was the CEO, co founder of Ledger, had been kidnapped. And then they quickly dispelled it, but actually it was the original co founder, David, who was kidnapped yesterday. There's no real information. And we're all in. You're in the Alpha chat group, I think, right? I, I rarely.
- [27:38]
Adon Yago
Yeah, they're not talking, right? They're not, they're not saying. But something crazy happened to me yesterday. I got on a call with a fund that I know well, and then someone from another fund that I know well joined that. That group. And I was on the chat, like, we were talking, right? And then the audio switched out and I couldn't hear anything. And this pop up came up saying I need to like, download this thing to get the audio to fix, which I did. And then I immediately realized I afterwards messaged these people. None of them were on that chat with me. I don't know how they did it, but the level of sophistication of the spear phishing, like, I, I'd received emails from people that I knew, I checked out, right? Like, I, like I, I communicated with them. My assistant. It was, it was the, the. The deepest level of sophistication for a spear phishing attack by like 10x that I've ever seen. And so, you know, they compromised my machine. So luckily, you know, I've got layers of defense here. And, you know, they.
- [28:48]
Scott Melker
It was a basic guy that, like, you're the. This is proof. Like, you see, like, I remember. I can't remember his name, but like, we've had a lot of people who are extremely sophisticated, cautious, and one day you just click the link.
- [29:04]
Adon Yago
Dude, I was in.
- [29:05]
Scott Melker
I was in a zoo. Guy on Earth. I would ever. And I'm not blaming you. You're in a zoom. Why would you.
- [29:10]
Adon Yago
But I'm saying with video. Which video? Right?
- [29:13]
Scott Melker
Like talking to.
- [29:15]
Adon Yago
I don't. It may have been AI. It made the whole thing. May have been AI generated. It's insane.
- [29:22]
Scott Melker
And what was. And what were they. What was the link doing? It was a Trojan horse or something. Some sort of virus that.
- [29:27]
Adon Yago
Yeah, yeah.
- [29:30]
Dan
Sorry.
- [29:31]
Scott Melker
I mean, that's. That's awful. I mean, this guy got. I don't know, they had. There's been no information here. So he was, you know, kidnapped in the morning, released the next evening. There was a demand for a substantial ransom in crypto. We don't know if they paid it or how they got him back. There was the police that says he's being. He's in the hospital, I guess. I mean, this is.
- [29:50]
Adon Yago
I'm gonna get myself some Android bodyguards, man.
- [29:54]
Scott Melker
Yeah, you got to get one of those Tesla robot Optimus things.
- [29:58]
Adon Yago
Exactly. Just walk around with a. With a small army of those.
- [30:01]
Scott Melker
Dude, that would be pretty gangster, to be honest. Like, even just to have them around.
- [30:07]
Adon Yago
I'm not. I'm not even joking. I've been looking into it.
- [30:11]
Scott Melker
Humans can't do it because they'll just get spearfished. Like, you know, the person you give access to, your security is going to click.
- [30:19]
Adon Yago
They took over my bodyguard Android. He kidnapped me.
- [30:23]
Scott Melker
Yeah, that's coming, too. That's just a hack, right? I mean, that's just a hack. That's. Yeah, that's terrifying.
- [30:29]
Dan
This is two years away, man.
- [30:31]
Scott Melker
It's scary out there. Listen, I'm looking forward to us kind of continuing these chats on. On Thursdays. I really think that it's important that we highlight what can be done on Bitcoin and try to focus there. Listen, I think I'm a huge fan. Everybody knows, like, I'm a huge fan of the technology and the entire space, but nothing would be better than if bitcoin became the settlement layer for everything happening on those other chains.
- [30:56]
Adon Yago
Well, it's happening. We're making it happen. Scott, thanks so much for having me. I look forward to chatting with you every week.
- [31:02]
Scott Melker
All right, man. Have fun at the World Economic Forum. I know you're not there right now, but. All right. Thank you, man.
- [31:08]
Adon Yago
All right, thanks.
- [31:11]
Scott Melker
All right, man. Awesome chat there. That is terrifying to me, man. The security side of crypto is so scary. I don't even. You know, like, I had a friend who lost, like, a million bucks last cycle. I can't remember. The token it was, but he joined. You know, he was a passionate community member of some Token. This guy's a chiropractor. And somehow he got fished into a matching telegram group that had all the same people in there, but they were bots, including the moderators of the chat, the heads. So he thought that he was in the exact chat somehow that he had been in forever for this community, but somehow they flipped it and put it up at the top of his telegram. And eventually, I mean, he knows better, but it was like 5:30 in the morning. You know, he was, like, tired from a flight and waking up, and there was an airdrop that was everybody knew there was an airdrop for this product and somehow they got him. They were like the airdrops not working. He'd been in this chat and they got him to send his keys like in a moment of weakness at 5:30 in the morning and drained an entire wallet for over $1 million. I mean it's just wild. Someone said check, tweet Cynthia Lummis that let's. Before I bring Dan on, I'm just gonna check and see what, what that's about. Actually, I'm just gonna, I'm gonna go ahead and bring Dan on and then we can discuss what's, what's happening if it comes. What's up man? How are you?
- [32:33]
Dan
I'm good. That was definitely eye opening and just sent out my warning to everybody about the, the sophistication of the scams.
- [32:41]
Scott Melker
Tweet now. Tweet now. Yeah, I mean it's, it's, it's wild. Yeah.
- [32:45]
Dan
And bitcoin and bullshit instantly in my head the biggie song party and bullshit but with changed lyrics.
- [32:53]
Scott Melker
Bitcoin and bullshit. Yeah. It's going to be good. Okay. You just gave me in my old DJ days. Now I've even got another idea for the theme song. It's going to be so good. Okay. I'm going to make a theme song and everything. All right man. But what are we looking at here in the market? Right. We have this title. Huge opportunity for bitcoin traders is coming. I guess. I think we still have consensus that top's not in and we're likely to have a cycle and go up. So the question is, is that going to be buying it like sub 90 or is that going to be on a breakout to the upside?
- [33:20]
Dan
Yeah. Right. Right now it's easy in the sense that it's just a battle for 100,000. The bell just rang for the market and bitcoin liked it. So instant shot up there. But Daily EMA 12, I just want to see it ride that. I never like bull breaks with no follow through which is what we had over the weekend with you know, the inauguration and all that. But if you could just keep holding this. Daily EMA 12, that's a. Okay. It's like a seat belt where the bulls are just fine. And I like the 12 hour for clarity. It's really just a tightening, what I call the equilibrium. You top out the higher low, lower high. We just set the higher low. So how this 12 hour range breaks probably over the weekend is going to give us some short term. But again it's just a battle for a hundred thousand. And whether you're using Daily EMA 12 as your guide or 100,000 as a guide, the burden is on bears at the moment to tell us that this is a significant rejection from the all time high, which they haven't done yet at this point. And plenty of altcoins are riding their weekly EMA 12. I mean here's just an example of ADA same mindset. If we could just keep holding this EMA 12 which is trending up, that keeps the bulls in control. So I always like having something nice and clear like that. And we have it on the daily for bitcoin at the moment.
- [34:33]
Scott Melker
So I found it. If we're talking about bitcoin catalysts, obviously Cynthia Lummis, the senator from Wyoming who is the one that actually proposed the strategic reserve bill for anybody who doesn't know Trump, came out and gave a speech at the bitcoin conference in Nashville. She immediately ran out on stage and presented the bill while she just tweeted big things are coming with a bitcoin B and said stay tuned for 10:00am that's in 23 minutes.
- [34:59]
Dan
Wow. And it's, that's interesting. You see the timing of that tweet 9:16, which is here and this is, it looks that's why it's ETFs, I would assume though, because it, it was right when the bell rang. So there's nothing, you know, pre. The 14 minutes after her tweet is nothing. Huge volume right when the bell rings. To me that says probably etf, but who knows? Either way it's bullish.
- [35:23]
Scott Melker
She's the, she's the. Yeah, I mean that's the buying or front running. But I guess, you know, if people see this tweet at 9:16 and the market opens at 9:30, the people who are trading it via ETFs and such and buying bitcoin, no, you know, that was kind of when you would expect to see a pump that's pretty big. So like listen, I guess we're gonna tune in and see what's happening there. But for now, what else are you looking at? Tom?
- [35:47]
Dan
The crypto stocks had a nice setup. They were a top watch for me this morning because a bitcoin 12 hour higher low was most likely for me. And they also had these nice little daily inside bars yesterday. So you can see MSTR held a low of yesterday. Well it broke it by 25 cents but held the low of yesterday. And again the bell rang and just shot up. So I'm liking the clarity of the short term support on some of these crypto stocks. Just looking at the broader market, you know, last week we looked at this potential falling wedge. It was a falling wedge. We just went straight up from the bear break V shape style. So that's a good thing just as far as sentiment is concerned. You know, still, as you mentioned, the, the issues fundamentally with ETH right now. But you know, we've been watching a lot of falling wedges recently and ETH is still trying to shape up a daily falling wedge. So this is what I'm keeping an eye on. You know, nothing's going on as long as we're sideways, but this is worth keeping an eye on. And if, if ETH can break this bullish. I like the ENS setup. I don't, I don't watch ENS much, but there's a very clear wall of resistance here. Pretty much, you know, just under 38 to just above 38. And whenever I see an altcoin, I first look at the, you know, USD chart and say, all right, there's a line in the sand. If that breaks, it would be significant. That's been resistance now for a month. And then I go to the BTC pairing chart and I say, okay, ensbtc. I like the clarity of the monthly here. It's again just another long equilibrium, a year in the making and worth watching for a monthly higher low. And if this thing could break bull, that would tell us that ENS is making a big time breakout. And you know, the, the reason this is where I marry fundamentals and technicals. You know, I see that the Trumps are doing some things with the ENS names. And I said, all right, I'm going to check the chart. And then I see a potential setup. And so, you know, it's worth keeping an eye on if ENS can get over that wall.
- [37:40]
Scott Melker
I'm just laughing because Trump controls this. He bought the entire crypto market at this point, like, it's his. Whatever they do now at this, at least at this moment in time is what everybody's watching. You know what I mean? Like, what does World Liberty Financial buy or what meme Coin is launched next or what? Like just dying for him to make an executive order that even mentions crypto. I mean, the, it's like he controls, it's a small market. He effectively controls it at this point.
- [38:07]
Dan
And you see it on the big markets too. I mean, you got Zuckerberg completely changing who he is as a person.
- [38:13]
Scott Melker
That's, that's his original Authentic self.
- [38:16]
Dan
Dan, it's wild to just.
- [38:18]
Scott Melker
He did not hire a PR agency to redo his entire image and put him up. No, he didn't start dressing like Elon Musk. That's who he originally was, who he's always been.
- [38:29]
Dan
Follow the money.
- [38:30]
Scott Melker
Oh, my God. It's crazy. But yeah. Okay, so what else are you looking at in the meantime? Yeah, I think we're just like, this is just waiting for a catalyst. This sort of like, yeah, volatility should be coming. It's going to be like one word that's going to send this thing in either direction at this point. And all coins are going to action is completely going to be determined by what happens with that bitcoin movement move, I think.
- [38:57]
Dan
Yeah, I mean, I, I always. What I always love, just because it's the pattern that's happened and I'm most comfortable with it, is when bitcoin leads to a breakout. All time highs, ideally confidence, or everybody says, yep, back bulls are back in complete control. Dominance goes up on that move because bitcoin leads. And then we get the dominance dropping as the profits rotate to altcoins. And again, this, this dominance chart, this weekly equilibrium is tightening up and sometime in February is going to break. And I would like to see it break bear, because that does mean that the altcoins are getting a move and that profits are rotating around. But again, the direction that this tightening range breaks is going to have significant implications for the rest of Q1 in my opinion. So definitely worth paying attention to. We can keep tightening up for another couple of weeks within it. But again, when's the last time we've had a clear equilibrium like this in the dominance? I don't even know. It's years at least.
- [39:56]
Scott Melker
So, yeah, it's just been climbing. Right. So this is the first indication that it might stop.
- [40:00]
Dan
Right? Yeah. Burdens on bears, the same thing. Prove to us that it's alt season. You got to lose these higher lows that have formed thus far.
- [40:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah.
- [40:10]
Dan
Other than clear.
- [40:10]
Scott Melker
Really quick. So I just want to tell people Lummis has two accounts. She has her personal account and the actual Senator Lummis account. And she tweeted this on the actual Senator Lummis account. Because when I searched for it also, I didn't see the post on her personal account. She has two big Twitter accounts, basically.
- [40:23]
Dan
10Am 17 minutes. Let's see.
- [40:26]
Scott Melker
Yeah. All right.
- [40:28]
Dan
Other than that. Other than that, just a lot of altcoin tightening ranges. Again, the 12 hour is where I'm finding clarity. This is soul, you know, 12 hour higher low, then a lower high, trying for the higher low. So just tightening up here. But again if, if this, if we get an announcement in 20 minutes that is, you know, bitcoin centric then. Well, in an ideal world, yeah, I would assume so in an ideal world, bitcoin all time high lead the way. And then we look for maybe the weekend again to be. There's that was a fun couple of weeks there where we got the weekends were for altcoin trading again maybe three weeks that lasted but I'd like to see that revived.
- [41:07]
Scott Melker
So how are you looking at broader markets right now? It seems making new all time highs here on the S and P. So obviously there's some confidence evidence in what's happening but to me it still feels kind of choppy and indecisive.
- [41:21]
Dan
Yeah, I mean you know it's, it's a, we just, we just gapped up on Spy six days in a row which I don't know if I've ever seen that happen. Just it's that V shape that has happened. You know, it happened in October 23, it happened in August 24 where the bears finally get some momentum and then it is ended with just a V shape right off the lower and bulls are trying to do that again. And so you know there's, there are no red flags in the broader market as far as I'm concerned. I am watching for a blow off top but at this point, you know, I need another 10% higher for that to be aligning. So you know, always keeping an eye out but no, not worried about anything at this point with the size of the recovery we've seen over the last week and you know, essentially what my concern would be would, you know, if everybody's pouring as much money as they can into markets for the Trump four years and then we reach a point, you know, later on in the year. All right, who's left to buy at this point? That's when we could see some more significant pullback. But again, nothing in the short term. That's concerning a couple non crypto things before we end here. Lithium, Lithium. Six month chart. Just had a monster move for years and then has just done nothing for years. And I'm looking for a long term higher low. And we're back testing. This is lit, it's the etf, it's not very liquid so it's gotta be a swing longer term mindset. But just back testing previous resistance, trying to hold it as support. Just something that I'm keeping an Eye out for. Essentially what I'd be watching is, again, you know, in this show, we've already looked at eight different equilibriums on different time frames, but it's the most common pattern in markets. So I'd be looking for something like that, just something to keep an eye out. Bigger picture.
- [43:01]
Scott Melker
Yeah, man. Now I'm just like in suspense for 15 minutes.
- [43:06]
Dan
Right.
- [43:06]
Scott Melker
I guess that's maybe like it's gonna be like, I don't know, because she, it's got to be an executive order because she's already filed the, she's already filed for the, the bill. So it's, it's not like that's on the Senate floor today or something. Or passed. Right. We would all know about that. So I think it's going to be interesting. But look at that move.
- [43:25]
Dan
Yeah, I mean, we're heading right up. Just if it's under, if it's underwhelming, we'll reject from 107 here and keep tightening up. So that's on the table as well. Don't FOMO in everybody. Unless it's huge news that the market.
- [43:38]
Scott Melker
The time to FOMO in was 9:16am when she tweeted, guys. Yeah, that was your moment to FOMO in. Just so you know, you had to buy Trump in the first hour. Come on, what are you making, Trump? I gotta ask everyone. What do you make of the.
- [43:50]
Dan
I've. I'm done. Dumbfounded. I don't like it. I don't think it's a good thing for the name of the crypto space. But again, you know, if it brings people into the altcoin coin space, I can see how people would like that. But you know, these people, I, I just, I don't like it. And you know what, what can you do? I have a friend who's been trading, you know, full time, seven years. That was, he's, he's anti Trump and that's the biggest trade he's had in his life. So you got to put your emotions aside and get your piece.
- [44:21]
Scott Melker
Are you saying that there's a person out there that did not buy this token as a collectible, as the, as the disclaimer says on the site, and that he did not buy it to support as a bet on Trump's campaign, that he bought it for speculative, speculative reasons to make money? Is that what you're saying? Because that seems to not be the reason that they launched it according to securities law.
- [44:47]
Dan
Yeah. 800% in 24 hours. Again, doesn't like Trump, but can, can detach himself and see the opportunity. And that's essentially what we have to be doing as traders to make it, you know, in this market long term. And so hats off to everybody that, you know, was able to take advantage of it. But just be aware that the other side of that is you're going to have a whole lot of long term bag holders, that it's going to go.
- [45:12]
Scott Melker
Up forever, at least for four years. That's what. But they can't talk about that because the collectible, this token is a collectible for you. That's, you know, and it has not meant to go up. There's no, you know, that's why they held 80% of the supply and sniped 80% of the existing. That's what. No, guys, listen. It's not really a meme coin. I'm just gonna say this. Like I was pretty convinced by Hasim. I'm not. They're not doing anything illegal. I don't think it will not fall under securities law, I'm sure. But like it's a guy's name. Everyone's buying it because of that guy's tweet and name, which is a promoter, which is like one of the biggest factors of the Howie test. And if it was a meme token, they would have put all the supply on the market and let the free market decide. It wouldn't have VC vesting schedule. Like without the VCs where they own all of it, it's the most gratuitous cash grab in history. I'm here for it because I believe in freedom and people can do whatever they want, but it's kind of gross.
- [46:10]
Dan
Yeah, that sums it up.
- [46:11]
Scott Melker
Yeah. All right, well, you guys can follow chart. Guys. We're all going to be eyes peeled on the news for 11 minutes. I'm sure we'll be wildly disappointed by whatever happens, whatever, or we'll forget about it. In 45 minutes, we're going to be.
- [46:25]
Dan
Right at resistance as this comes out.
- [46:27]
Scott Melker
So it's going to be perfect. Yeah. So that's obviously at about 11 minutes. Follow chart. Guys, guys, seriously, check out all of Dan's other content. Really amazing. Cool, calm and collected. We'll even trade Trump token if he disagrees with it, you know, because he's a trader and that's what traders do. That's all we got. I had to go figure out what we're gonna do on spaces because it's at 10:15 and we're gonna have an announcement, which means we're gonna have to, you know, figure some things out. All right, everybody, see you tomorrow for the Friday 5. Dan back next Thursday and see you on spaces in about 25 minutes. Have a good one. Later. That's dope. That's dope.