← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:00]
A
Well, good morning, everyone. Here we are with the war still going, oil markets rocketing up 7%, the stock market yawning, and bitcoin more or less doing the same thing it was doing after people saw sailors sold 32 bitcoin. And at the same time, hyper liquid is over 70, and it is, you know, defying what the rest of the market is doing. But I actually think it all makes sense. So, you know, I don't. I don't know where we want to start. I mean, I could always tee Carlo up and talk about the, The. The mask slipping from. From Jamie Dimon. We can go in a bunch of different directions, but I think that. That probably the most important thing to think about is are we finally entering the world in crypto, where earnings and the ability for token holders to actually see value matters? Because hyperliquid has that story and a lot of other ones don't, and that's why it's doing what it's doing, despite bitcoin kind of sitting kind of hanging out here and yawning at all of this macro stuff. Any thoughts out there, or. Carlo, do you want. You. You want. You want to talk about Jamie Dimon first?
- [01:10]
B
I'll take the bait.
- [01:13]
C
Yeah.
- [01:13]
B
You know, Jamie Dimon was on Fox Business on Friday with Maria Bartiromo doing Jamie Dimon things, talking his bag and arguing that despite the fact that the Clarity act has already cleared the Senate Banking Committee and is most likely gonna get teed up for a vote on the floor in the Senate for full passage with the reconciliation of the stablecoin provision, he has doubled down and said he's gonna continue to fight it. And that's no surprise. I just pinned up my latest stablecoin strategist on substack, breaking down what he had to say. But if you read in between the lines of his closing comment, which was the most controversial part of his rant, he basically said that the guy on the other side of the fight, referring to Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, is full of shit. And I'm going to give Jamie a little bit of the benefit of the doubt here, because I know what he's trying to say. I don't agree with him, but I know what he's trying to say. David. He's basically saying that Brian Armstrong is not just in it for the crypto bros and for adoption of blockchain technology. He's in it for his own business interests, which is fair. Stablecoins are a big revenue generator for Coinbase because of the custody arrangement. They have with Circle and paying rewards on that is under a direct threat by the banks. And they have demonstrated that they're not just going to stop at active rewards. They want to ban all rewards. It's very clear they're not coming to the table to be reasonable. And my take, and what I wrote in my intelligence report is basically that this is not anything new. The banks are looking to protect their own moat around their monopoly. And I went out on a limb and said the banks are full of shit because the banks pretend that they're here to protect the consumer. And Dimon talks about stablecoins, don't have enough AML and enough kyc and they're going to, they're going to take down the banking system essentially. And I think he's completely off base on that. And it just shows how scared he is and how protective he is of his monopoly he wants to preserve.
- [03:30]
A
Let me push back a little. He's not scared, he's mad.
- [03:32]
B
Yeah, he's angry. He's angry.
- [03:34]
D
Yeah.
- [03:34]
A
And, and look, it's every one of his arguments there, there's bad arguments and bad arguments. Okay? You know, we're used to Elizabeth Warren making bad arguments, but when you make arguments that actually are the arguments for the other side, you know, in debate we used to call these turnarounds. Right. You know that, that is absurd. So, you know, it talks about protecting investors. Absent clarity, if there's another ftx, investors have to, or, or Celsius or Voyager or whatever. Investors have to wait in line with other creditors and bankruptcy attorneys get to take. What are investors assets with clarity. That doesn't happen because you ring fence assets. Right. That is a huge difference. And to ignore stuff like that is the ultimate in, in, in double speak when it comes to aml. I mean, says the man, how many billions of dollars in fines have JP Morgan and other banks paid because of AML violations? There is not a shred of evidence that the Genius act or Clarity would actually make AML easier, you know, than it is today. In fact, there's pretty good arguments to be said that with regulatory clarity they could create rules that actually make some sense. Now, will they actually do so? Probably not. Because, I mean, pretty much the entire AML infrastructure has been a objective failure from its beginning. But at a bare minimum, having regulatory clarity doesn't change that. So his arguments suck. The worst part about his argument and why he said what he did is because he knows he lost already by allowing Genius to go through. Allowing is the wrong word. But by Genius going through it Means that if there is no clarity, the banks are effed 100% TABLE Coin issuers can offer rewards, etc. Etc. So he, he needs it. So this was him expressing that anger. They're fighting, they're not fighting to block anything. They're fighting to get the best bill they can. And they're pissed because they're basically in a terrible tactical position.
- [05:35]
B
Well, I think it's also, David, that Congress is sick of listening to their bullshit too. I mean, you have Congress people who are instrumental in the drafting and passage of the Clarity act that have basically lashed out on X through the bank lobby and said, enough. You're going to have to, you're just going to have to accept what's coming.
- [05:52]
A
But the point of all this is when you, we get through the other end of it and it will, we will get through the other end of it. I don't care when it is, it will happen because it's, it's a bipartisan thing having investors. All that has to happen is another bankruptcy where investors lose their money because they couldn't ring fence their assets. And these guys will pay. And it's, and that's just something they don't want to do with. But, you know, we got a lot of stuff to talk about. I, I, I only started with that because we didn' have other people up here. But, you know, it's a story that, that is just, is annoying and there's no, there's no other way around it when you see stuff like this. But I actually think it's good for crypto that, that someone as erudite as Jamie Dimon allowed the world to see that he's, that he could be as juvenile as everybody else. And it really is that simple. So that's one story. The other big one this morning, of course, is we talked about it last week. I'm trying to figure out where the invites are here or where are we. I'm trying to get Gary up on stage because what he said was going to happen and let's see if they can get people up. I don't know if this actually works.
- [07:00]
E
I think I'm here.
- [07:01]
A
Oh, you're there. Okay. Well, I see you as a listener, so here we go. Cool.
- [07:05]
E
I am also a listener, though. I listen well.
- [07:10]
A
Well, so we, we had two stories which are influencing what markets are doing. We have sailor selling the 32 bitcoin that he moved last week, causing the market to go from, well, basically dropped a thousand bucks, give or take, which is not a whole lot in Real terms, but kind of what you said would happen over the weekend but didn't and then happened on Monday morning. But even there it had recovered most of that and we had 500 of those dollars, probably half of it on the Iran news, which has caused oil to spike 6 or 7% right now. So, you know, it's, we seem to continue to be hostage to this situation and the markets, the risk markets, you know, the indices are ignoring it, which is, is crazy. I mean, what, what do you make of the fact that the NASDAQ is essentially flat with declaration, and with oil up 7%,
- [08:04]
E
this market defies anybody's logic. So I, I'm totally guessing, I, I, this is way, way out of my pay grade here. I mean, Dell's up 10 today. $462 for a stock that was trading in May of this year. That was one month ago at $274. It's trading at 451. It's increased 200 $180 in less than a month.
- [08:36]
A
Are they, are they profit? Did they with their earnings that good? I haven't been following it.
- [08:40]
E
No, they're, they're, they're, I mean, they got a market cap at 274. They pay a half a percent dividend.
- [08:50]
D
It's, it's an AI.
- [08:52]
E
Yeah, totally. I think, look, I look at IBM, man.
- [08:55]
D
Yeah.
- [08:56]
C
Look at BlackBerry.
- [08:57]
E
BlackBerry's up to 943 from three bucks in a month.
- [09:01]
C
Right?
- [09:01]
D
There's, they're, they're two, they're two markets. There's the A MIC AI market and there's everything else in the A market. Doesn't care about anything else.
- [09:12]
A
Yeah, but some of the AI plays are not doing much today or haven't done, you know, whatever. I mean, I guess they've had their run. So it's like, it feels like, like the dog. Remember the old, I mean, I don't know, you'll remember this, Remember Dogs of the dao? This is sort of like Dogs of the AI. The companies that got out in the first, first bit major AI rally be like, oh, these guys are AI also. So let's go. I mean, that's.
- [09:36]
E
Dave, what, what it feels like to me is that the United States government is going to buy or invest in and protect very large companies. That's the only thing that makes sense here is that there's a, there's going to be a bid on the IBMs, the HPS, the Hewlett Packards of the world. The companies that we haven't thought of in 20 years, they have done nothing. Now they've survived. You know, BlackBerry survived for 25 years just being beat up and they're making a run. I mean, they do security on, through AI platforms. They're still in the government. I didn't realize how, you know, embedded in the government business. BlackBerry still is, but it just seems like anything that's got a moat, anything that's got security, anything that's got contracts with governments, I don't know, man. You know, Trump tapped the IBM CEO on the shoulder the other day. It just seems like every time he gets around one of these guys, whether it's Dell or IBM, I mean, something clearly is going on here where you get companies that have been dead for 20 years are very, very quiet and they're bumping 100 to 200%. You can't not look at it. It's, it's, it's amazing to me. So I don't know what's going on, but the only thing I can surmise is the government's going to put a bid on it and we're going to act like other sovereigns, we're going to take positions in large corporations. I know a lot of people aren't going to like that, but I, I think that's where we're headed.
- [11:16]
A
I mean, that, that is an interesting one. I mean, at the same time, you know, we're sitting here and looking at crypto markets ether now, well below, not well below, but below 2000 and pretty much everything non hyper liquidy. I mean, zcash down today. I can't, I haven't seen it. But, you know, other than a couple of plays, it seems like the market is doing what it's doing. And I think that, you know, stellar lumens is up a little bit and hyper liquid is up. But outside of that,
- [11:47]
D
check out Venice. Venice has been ripping.
- [11:57]
F
Yeah. Humanity Protocol, our favorite missing Scott. I'm missing Scott on that.
- [12:03]
A
Yeah, yeah, that one seems to be ripping. So there's, there's 110 today. Yeah, that, that's ripping, you're right. So it is an interesting market, right? I mean, no matter how you want to slice it, I mean, certain things somewhat make sense, you kind of understand it. And other things you look at and it's like, well, maybe not, but it is when you get this, it's not across the board, though. That's the thing. We used to call it dispersion. And that matters, right? It tells you that people are looking for places to put money. And you mentioned Dell. I Mean, the amount of money it takes to move a stock the size that you're talking about, Gary, is a lot. And, and that amount of money is
- [12:45]
E
just, that's why it's so important, Dave. And I think this is the piece people are missing. We're talking about IBM moving 100%. Like these are monster 20, 30 moves on companies this big is monster moves. I mean, it takes colossal amounts of money to move that stock. That kind of, that, that kind of 10, 20% in a day. It's, it's. I don't think, I think it's unparalleled. I've never seen a market like this
- [13:15]
A
ever. It.
- [13:18]
E
And I would love, I would love to, to debate this thesis that, that I, it's the only thing that makes sense is the government's going to support these companies. Man, I'd love to know another, another reasoning for this other than, I mean,
- [13:32]
D
outside of Trump, does anybody in government really want to want the government buying these companies, buying pieces of these companies?
- [13:41]
E
I think I do because we're competing on the world stage and there is no other country that doesn't support their corporates.
- [13:49]
D
Hence why we've been the best country when we haven't been. Because the government, you know, by definition, the government's going to fuck it up. Why, why would anybody want the government involved?
- [14:02]
E
But I, I don't think that's the question. I think the question for me is why are these companies moving like this? These markets are supposed to be perfect, right? They're supposed to be efficient. When IBM moves 10, man, that's telling you the market is so grossly inefficient, it's ridiculous. The analysts should all be fired. There isn't an analyst on the marketplace that predicted any of this. And this is, to me, the reason Bitcoin's suffering. I have so many. I'm getting ready to get a shitload of money dropped on me from an exit. And I'm not looking at Bitcoin as the only option here. Sorry.
- [14:44]
B
I think one of the contributing factors,
- [14:46]
D
right, and that's when it bottoms.
- [14:48]
B
I think one of the contributing factors that you can't ignore here, Gary, is the fact that, you know, you have Trump, who's essentially day trading the American economy, and the fact that he talks about these companies and then the prices move is, is definitely something that you can't ignore. I'm not going to go out as far and to say that this is outright insider trading. I mean, enough people have complained about that, but there's no doubt that the guy who has the biggest platform on the planet, who talks about companies off the cuff and how, you know, he thinks they're going to do this and they're going to do that, is driving the market, which is his biggest popularity rating metric, is the performance of the stock market. So as long as Trump's going to continue to pump, I don't think that trend's going to stop.
- [15:32]
E
Gary, that's where I'm at. When you can print unlimited amounts of money and you can do all kinds of deals, you can assure companies they're going to get some business, I don't know how you can fade that trade. I mean, these companies, if you look back to the Trump administration, him coming in, these companies in one year have exploded. And to the bitcoin conversation, it's very hard for me to get all excited about the last comment. Oh yeah, I'm gonna go buy $70,000 bitcoin while it's weak, while the Wall street, the, the quadrillions of dollars that need to be, you know, put to work, those funds are going not to bitcoin guys, they're going to IBM, they're going to Ford, they're going to Dell, they're going to companies that advisors understand and the families understand.
- [16:23]
A
Well, let me take the other side of this for a second. Just because it's a question of timing, right? If you look at what the, saw, all that we were on this, this, this show several months ago when all the SAS companies started getting sold aggressively because of AI and they're pretty well, the index itself has recovered 100% of that loss and some of those companies are way higher than they were and the losers of course are lower, which of course that's what always happens. And so you know, when sentiment is, when you're talking about why it's already happened, it's already done. Now you, you mentioned that, you know, Trump is standing and tapping corporate insiders on, on the shoulder. Say whatever you want about him, you know, but his family business, you know, Eric, et cetera, are bitcoin mining. If you really think that the same thing doesn't apply to bitcoin, then I don't know what to tell you. I mean, am I happy about that? Actually, no, I'm not. I think it's ridiculous. Ridiculous. But if you're right, that, that the tap on the shoulder is what's going to be the next thing. I, I want to buy the thing before the stocks, you know, do what they've done or before something, you know, does it not, not after. And I think that's. That, that's really Lou's point. Although, like me, you probably are like, well, Jesus, I hate this, this tapping on the shoulder stuff. I, I want government out, but it is what it is, right, Carlo? Is that a, Is that a new hand?
- [17:47]
B
Yeah, yeah, it's a new hand. And I just want to make the point that I think the continued drag on crypto you can't ignore, and I hate to sound like a broken record here, is, is the Clarity Act. You know, you've got Lummis saying that this is critically important. You've got Tim Scott saying it's critically important. You've got Besson pushing for it. Everything is essentially on the sidelines waiting for legal clarity. And I think once that legal clarity comes in, you're going to see crypto and especially Bitcoin start to rebound. You can't ignore the announcement today. I mean, CZ from Binance just announced that they're trading 7,000 stocks and ETFs to outside customers. US stocks now being traded actively on BNB and an upcoming feature where they're going to put these on tokenized rails on the BNB network. He's not sitting around waiting for the Clarity Act. The SEC is not sitting around. But I think a lot of the big institutions need that assurance. Their compliance departments, the people that they have to listen to, the lawyers, they're not going to tell them the full port into this until there's legal clarity for fear of what could happen if the regulatory framework falls apart in the next administration. So it's a frustrating, slow grind. But when you see stuff like Hyper Liquid and what's happening with Bitwise and the amount of people that have interest in that, there's no question that tokenized assets is going to be reality. It's just a matter of getting the legal clarity. And I think, like you, I agree it's going to happen because there's a, there's a bipartisan mandate for it.
- [19:18]
A
I mean, we'll, we will of course, see. Rich, what do you think it is?
- [19:23]
G
Yeah, I think it's an interesting time for crypto. Certainly the, you know, with on chain tokenized assets. I think it's thrown a bit of a lifeline to traders. I think spot on. Most alters, dismal. We've spoken about this countless times. You've got to be pretty selective these days. I don't think you know what's happened in previous times where you've been able to kind of throw darts at a dartboard. Proverbially speaking to stock pick on crypto, those days are long gone. So I think this phase in between getting an absolute outcome on clarity. Look, I don't think people that are in the trenches in crypto are looking at clarity like we're looking at it. I do think they're aware of it in the background but they are seeing things like this big move from hype and you know, guys that are looking at on chain data, you know, for revenues and fees, I mean is where they're trying to find opportunity. You know there's a lot of speculation and I think more than ever before having access to large traditional markets that are now on chain through multiple trading venues, whether it's centralized or decentralized, whether you're trading in BYBIT or if you're trading through places like HyperLiquid or Trade XYZ. It's been six months sprint with these tickers coming online. I mean two weeks ago I was asking when's BlackBerry coming to a trading venue and boof, there it is. It arrived on the weekend on hyperliquid and it traded up. I think it closed on Friday around 9:30 and it traded over $10 on the weekend on hyperliquid. So the demand is there. And to Gary's point people are looking around, I mean you're seeing stocks like Micron, sandisk, Western Digital, I mean a lot of these AI stocks are trading with a lot of familiarity to how altcoins have traded. Remember people are generally on crypto to trade to make money. How many people are spot buying and long holding? People are looking for opportunity and they're getting that in bucket loads with these on chain assets becoming available readily. And just to give you some insights, I mean that the top monthly revenue earners in crypto in general, the majority of them are stablecoin issues. There's a bit of privacy, the rest are kind of perps and that's about it. There's really not that much exciting stuff going on with fees and revenues. If you're looking at fundamentals on crypto projects at the moment.
- [21:56]
A
Well that is the point I think. I mean I made the point the other day and it's funny, the XRP army didn't take the bait. But when you start looking and understanding projects and you start trying to do valuations, there are themes and we talked about stellar getting a piece of the pie and outperforming xrp and the XRP guys are like, well but XRP is this liquidity asset and I keep saying to myself and scratching my head saying, well, why, why the hell does anybody need an asset to provide a liquidity in between two other assets anymore? I mean, we have these things, they're called stablecoins, and they work way better than any than Bitcoin or xrp. It doesn't matter if what you're using it as a liquidity pool, you just don't need it. It's absolutely silly. I mean, XRP was really important when Bitso allowed XRP to peso pairs to trade liquidly and XRP to dollar pairs traded liquidly. So if you wanted to cheaper using an XRP bridge in from pesos to dollars and back and forth, which is, you know, an underserved and very important, you know, FX pair, it worked great. But you don't need it in a world where you could do, you know, whatever, you know, peso to dollar, stable coins and, you know, and you're in dollars already. I mean, it becomes unnecessary. And so you have to look to see where the value is going to accrue. Things like hyper liquidity becoming a, a global exchange that can trade all assets is a very big deal. I mean, look, I, I have a vested interest in this. I mean, my company allows people to trade with full risk on hyper liquid. So that's a really good thing. Right? You know, there, there are, and that's why hyper liquid's up over 70 today, because people are looking at the earnings and saying, well, wait a minute, this, this thing has legs. Now, of course, whether or not there will be other others that come in and other exchanges adaptations, sure, all these things are true, but there are use cases that make sense for crypto. And I'll say it before, and I've said it again, Gaurav, you and I have talked about this. If you made me have a magic ball and tried to predict the price of all these assets individually 10 years from now, outside of Bitcoin, I don't even want to make a prediction. But what I will say is that the entire market cap of what we now call crypto, I.e. tokens, will be much higher. But it may be completely different. Maybe, you know, low cap stock and low cap coins. Today it may be high cap. I don't know. I'm not smart enough to know that. But I think that's what you're saying, Rich, right?
- [24:36]
G
Yeah, I think there's going to be a ton of change. I think what we see these days on, you know, on a coin market cap top 200, it's not going to look the same you know, in the previous call that you were on, you know, I think James bought it up.
- [24:51]
A
This space was downloaded via spacesdown.com visit to download your spaces today.
- [24:56]
G
We need to see a lot of these coins go to zero. I think Mark also bangs his drum pretty hard and he's 100% right. Like there's just too many projects that are coming in and grabbing liquidity. And it shouldn't just be going to bitcoin. I mean, there are still some significant L1s there that have real staying power, but there's way too much dilution and we still need this industry sanitized largely.
- [25:21]
D
I don't, I don't understand this discussion. What is different in the crypto market than is different in the regular stock market where most of the companies don't make any money? Most of the companies are totally crap and they stick around forever. Many of them.
- [25:39]
A
Well, I'll answer that. Yeah, because it's not true. I mean, it's in the stock market, if you fail to meet listing standard, you get delisted.
- [25:48]
D
Then you go to the pink sheets, but you still trade. You're still around. Just like all of these, you know, in 10 years they're going to be 10x, 100x 1000x the number of crap tokens that there are today.
- [26:01]
A
Yeah, that's true, that's true. But can you name one stock that's ever gotten delisted to the pink sheets that come back without having a complete recapitalization, I. E. New shareholders?
- [26:12]
D
I'll bet you it's happened. I mean, I'm not saying they're good stocks or good tokens. They're crap. I don't have any interest in them. And I also don't have any interest in talking about them. There's no, there's no value to talking about them.
- [26:23]
A
Yeah, but the difference is, is that it's not billions and it's not even hundreds of millions. When stocks drop to the pink sheets, they generally are dramatically worthless. I mean, we hundreds of thousands or tens of millions at max. Except for foreign adrs or community banks that never really graduated on the OTC markets. It is different. I mean, there's a lot of stuff in crypto that have billion dollar market cap that people look at and scratch their heads.
- [26:52]
D
Okay, well I do the same thing with Tesla, right? Tesla's. There's no way to value Tesla off any metric. Traditional metric, it's a meme. Doesn't mean it's. They can't go 100x higher, but it's A meme. Just like a lot of. Just like Doge.
- [27:09]
A
I mean, Tesla's not a meme. It's a. It's a narrative, though. I mean, you're right.
- [27:13]
D
I mean, a narrative. You're correct. I'm sorry.
- [27:16]
A
But it, but it matters because it's a narrative of what could become future earnings. It's not a narrative of, well, someone else.
- [27:23]
D
But that's not what traditional stocks trade off. Traditionally, there were not stocks that trade for long periods of time on massive, massive, massive multiples. Completely out of line with any reasonable valuation.
- [27:43]
A
I mean. Yeah, well, I mean, I don't know that that's true. I think that, you know, Micron is my favorite example on that. I mean, Micron was at ridiculous multiples, you know, in the 90s. And people kept talking about it. There's an analyst, Bill Fleckenstein, who I followed for years and years and years, used to call it the flying pig. It's 20x since then. So, you know, it is. There's. There's a lot of. A lot of crap that happens. And there will be in the crypto world. Like, we were, like, we were talking about, you know, what the narratives are that matter. I mean, you know, I don't know, Gaurav, you're up here. I mean, what do you think are the narratives that matter? What do you think actually will drive the next leg of investment when we finally get there? It might be off of a lower level, but. But anyone who believes that there's no value and it will, we're dead. I mean, I guess, you know, some people thinks it's dead, but I don't think it's dead.
- [28:38]
F
Yeah, I love Lou, and we are good friends, as I would like to call it. But at this point, I am not. I wouldn't support entirely his opinion of Tesla. Yes, it is a classic example. Of what? Of how Amazon was perceived 15 years ago, when people used to laugh about their monthly and quarterly and annually billions of dollars in posted losses. And then people would say, like, why is a company ranging in tens of billions and more while they post a few billions in annual losses while something big or something huge was being built underground? So, yes, it took a while for Tesla to break the narrative of electric cars and what that could do. And today we have the Ferraris of the world making electric cars that seem economically unviable, if that's a word, inviable. And that just keeps happening every day when innovative steps are taken. However, I don't even want to debate on that because there is something that is clean and visible in front of us, and that is the optimus. I remember the early days. Probably it was different for you guys in the US, but in the early 90s, when I was a kid in India, when somebody had a car, they were looked upon as like special human beings and like, oh, these are the creme de creme of the society. Only they will have cars. And that's how the world would work today. People who don't have a house have three cars, even in a country like this. And so cars have become such a utility that, like, one is not enough for most people. And you're talking about a robot that, that works endlessly 24 hours, never gets sick, never complains, is totally trustable to be the nanny of the kid, and so on and so on and so forth. Do you have a company that has the full stack? From production of the robotics at large scale to the AI inside that, to the history of delivering innovative tech and having the biggest marketer in the world as their chief influencing officer or whatever you want to call him, that stack is just about unbeatable and looking at the range of the scale of what they can manufacture.
- [31:08]
D
But is there any valuation, Gaurav, at which you go, wow, that is overvalued. Could it triple? Could it 10x? Could it 100x?
- [31:15]
F
We will get there.
- [31:15]
D
At which point you go, you know what, maybe it's overvalued.
- [31:18]
F
We'll get to that. We'll get to that. I'm just saying that there is no comparison of this to crypto. I mean, to shitcoins that we are bringing up here that are like, I'm
- [31:30]
D
talking about valuation, I'm talking about valuation.
- [31:32]
F
Valuation is always. I would always take.
- [31:38]
D
How about GameStop is GameStop from evaluation standpoint, what do you think GameStop is?
- [31:44]
F
I mean, if we don't concentrate on one topic and finish it end to end, we'll never be able to get anywhere. So I would like to first finish the whole Tesla.
- [31:57]
D
You haven't answered my point. You haven't addressed my point, which is from evaluation perspective. Perspective, Tesla.
- [32:04]
F
I did, but you're not allowing me
- [32:05]
D
to complete completely out of. No, you, you, you, blah, blah, blah. And I love you too. So. But you didn't say, yeah, I'm fine paying a thousand times revenue for Tesla because blah, blah, blah. Just tell me what you're fine paying. Tell me what you're fine paying.
- [32:25]
F
Yes, because I'm talking to everybody on our Twitter space that has 2,000 people. Not everybody's as informed as you. So we have to make context to make better explanations.
- [32:35]
D
I assume everybody here knows about Tesla. It's a pretty smart group of folks on crypto Town hall.
- [32:42]
F
Okay, let me know when you're done. I'll start speaking.
- [32:48]
D
My only question is what multiple of revenue would you pay do you think is fair? That's all. That's the only question.
- [32:56]
F
Any publicly traded stock is a speculative asset and the multiple are individual. And it's about, do you, do you, will you get a chance to get into this stock? What does the history say, qualitatively and quantitatively? You don't.
- [33:07]
C
Why don't you guys just go by hype, we've been calling it for over a year that, that hype is trading at like 18 times revenue right now. And it's a crypto asset you guys can go buy. And it's over 70 bucks today. So I heard you guys were talking about Hype. Dave told me. And you know, if you want to buy one thing in crypto right now, that's it, right? It actually makes cash flow. It's like more cash flow than eth right now. So why are we even talking about Tesla? Isn't this crypto?
- [33:30]
F
This topic was proposed by me and planned on that pressure. So believe me, I so want to talk about it. But I thought we were covering up and respecting other speakers.
- [33:40]
E
So.
- [33:42]
F
Yeah, Lou, quickly concluding on your point. It's a market, it's a public market, and it's a speculative asset and the world might be able to speculate and enter before you. So the question is not exactly what is the multiple I'm ready to pay. It's also about, in the current state of things, do I think I can get in in a cheaper valuation than the company will find itself probably a year later or three years later? And on that point I think it might be tough because despite of this guy fighting with the most powerful person on the planet, the president, the stock only fell, I don't know, 18% or something. They would know the numbers more correctly. So with the launch of domesticated robots, I think the valuations would be much bigger. Now, do I like the valuations as a VC for the last 20 years? Absolutely no. Do I like the multiples? Absolutely no. I still had the X AI deal on my desk and 6 billion raised was absolutely ridiculous. And so I didn't do it. And look where I stand today, right? SpaceX AI is going public and it's only what, 200x of that valuation? No, crypto made me that money So I think investing is much more than the amount of X's we are ready to pay. It's also about calculating the market movements, switching gears quickly to hyper liquid. Ian, big fan of hype have been there and holding and investing and talking about it and actually Dave, was that about like shit you got and you like also quoting me there, was that about hype? Like we have taken a lot of shit because we talked so highly about hype, Ian, we all love it. And the token.
- [35:37]
A
I told Ian that, I mean, look, the point, like I've been screaming this point from the rooftops for two years that there needs to be some sort of valuation notion in how people invest or at least a future valuation notion, right? And there's a lot of, of crypto assets that don't have it. So when the ones that do have it do, well, you shouldn't be horribly surprised, right?
- [36:00]
F
Absolutely.
- [36:02]
A
And so to me it's just, it's just funny, you know, like the Tesla conversation, like we were talking this morning, people are in the insider saying Tesla and SpaceX are going to merge and SpaceX is going to be the, the biggest IPO in, in, in history of financial markets. Now personally, would I buy into the IPO hype? No, I think buying into. To you, sorry for the, for the phrase buying into the hype, no funds intended, a really bad way to invest. You know, will I what do I think that post IPO after, you know, a month or so, you know, dcaing into something, if you really want to get into it, will probably get you a better entry. Yeah, probably will. Because historically, outside of the Google ipo, I can't. I have to go back to Google to find a hyped IPO that never broke IPO price. I mean, maybe there's others, but you know, for the most part they've all broken price at some point and took a while to take off again. Now does that mean it's a bad investment? No, not necessarily. If your holding period is long enough. So who knows? Gary, you and I talked about that, but that matters because if Tesla, which is private, you know, which was, which was not, not Tesla's private X is private. If he puts his whole empire together, what are going to be the valuations and how is it going to be determined? And those are really interesting questions, right, because his vested interest is obviously going to be, you know, going to be pushed. And so, you know, we'll see. Meaning that, you know, obviously if, if he is personally advantaged by a particular valuation of Tesla, I wouldn't short it. I think that's nuts if you understand what's being built. Yeah, you know, it's. Yeah.
- [37:44]
C
I mean, you guys are talking about these IPOs. Do you think that there's a likelihood that if you get in at the IPO price on SpaceX, it's going to outperform hype from here, like in the next year? Like, what are the odds that hype flips BNB at some point in the next couple years? And that's a 4x from here?
- [37:57]
A
Oh yeah, it's, it's absolutely everything you're saying is possible. Of course there could also be competition. Look, markets are, are, are, are not that easy to figure out. Anyone who thinks that they are. I mean, I've seen it's very humbling to have to make these predictions and sometimes they work out, but usually when someone makes five or six predictions, one or two of them work out and the other ones go horribly wrong. Right.
- [38:21]
C
I just. I know. I mean we see all the volumes in the centralized and decentralized exchange exchange space. We have a pretty good sampling of at least the institutional flow and we see Binance, like losing market share. I mean right now a lot of that market share is getting picked up by Bybit. I think Bybit past okx, they're not super happy about that. But at the same time hype is on. If it continues on this trend, it will at some point flip Binance. It's just a question of like, will that trend continue and how do you position your portfolio for that? I mean, we're running projects right now. We're allowing people to get better tiers on, on trading tiers on, on hyperliquid. And you know, the products are flying off the shelves like way more than any other me too product that I've seen. So I don't know. I do see it flipping the large centralized exchanges at some point. I mean I said this on a podcast the other day. Like Bloomberg is now quoting hyper liquid prices on a weekend because it's the most liquid venue for oil over the weekend right now. Cme, cme. I mean I'm dealing. We're doing a lot with CME as well. And like the amount of hoops that we have to jump through to trade there is, is insane compared to people trading on Hype. And they're just now, I think next month or this month they're launching 24. 7 trading on crypto futures. But oil and gold and all the other stuff is still, they have, it's not open during the Weekend. And furthermore, there's another problem. The banks aren't open over the weekend. So if you want to trade a 247 instrument on CME crypto, you have to settle either Friday or Monday to give them more cash. So now the. The brokers that you trade these futures for have to charge extra margin. It's a nightmare. Even though they're saying they're supporting 247 trading, they're actually not because you can't top up margin over the weekend. So that's why hype and all these crypto exchanges are eating volumes for retail traders on TradFi, because the old system just isn't built for it. Now, is that to say that it won't catch up at some point and allow stablecoin settlement?
- [40:02]
A
Maybe.
- [40:02]
C
But it's so far off. Like, that's why these guys are losing market share.
- [40:08]
G
And can I just add to that? Not only that, I mean, I think just globally, the access to this, people have never had access to this. And it's pretty simple. I mean, if you've got a self custodial wallet, it's game on. And that is a game changer.
- [40:23]
A
Oh, there's no doubt.
- [40:24]
C
I mean, even for, for, even for like random retail people that don't want to have to have custody, they're worried about losing their keys. They can open an account on a centralized exchange, call it Binance, and they can trade over the weekend and they can top up stablecoins if they hold stable coins in their wallet or at their bank. I mean, it's. It's crazy that, that my fcm, my, my futures broker is telling me, hey, you got to send us funds for the weekend at 3pm on Friday. And oh, by the way, I'm going to charge you this crazy rate. And oh, by the way, you have to close half your positions because the margin requirements go up over the weekend because you can't add extra cash. Like, people don't really realize how broken the old system is in a lot of ways.
- [40:58]
A
Gaurav, you were trying to say something?
- [41:00]
F
Yeah, I have to drop from this. This was an incredible discussion. I'm so sad. The topic that you and me started, Dave, is catching fire. Just wanted to leave the conversation with a couple of facts that might be useful because, you know, we've been known to talk about this. Obviously, we've been huge proponents of decentralization and fair launches with the real tokenomic that works at the ground level in the infrastructure. And once again, Hyper Liquid is proving that. But at the same time, the tokenomics and the token distribution has always been my concern. I've always voiced it out loud. And yes, this year, from January onwards, we're also talking about team investments. So team unlocks, which is around 500 some K tokens, which at current value would be enormous, will be released on 6th of June, which is the next unlock. So just look out for all of that. While going back to where it all started with lu, there is no way to find the right valuation for something that is publicly traded. You have to think about is this the price you want to enter and if you think this is the price, although I wouldn't suggest, and this is not a financial advice, with the amount of unlocks coming, with the amount of other stuff coming and the over speculation due to everything Ian said, I think it is a bit of a hype. Again, no puns intended, but concluding if we were to compare it to most of the investments we could do, I think this would be definitely an incredible investment. If done right, the usual DCA methods for the next six months and whatnot, I think this would be an incredible, incredible, incredible performing asset. And that's my time, guys. Thank you for having me.
- [43:11]
A
Thank you, Matthew, you've been very patient.
- [43:15]
H
Yeah, thank you. Hi, everybody. I think we're trying to drive some rationality onto crypto and I'm not sure we're actually ready for that as yet. I think that hype is obviously the, maybe the exception that proves the rule. So with crypto and looking at bitcoin in particular, we have the bitcoin cycle and everything seems to be going according to plan, according to previous cycles, and I was never a great fan of these cycles, but they do seem to keep playing out. And we're expecting a low in bitcoin probably around October, November this year, which actually fits with the chart analysis. If you just look at a simple, you know, cursory look at the chart on a daily chart, you can see that we are basically the upward move since the low in February of this year. February is about 60,000 ish. Somewhere around there, 59, 60,000. It's just been a very, very choppy sideways move to the upside and now we're starting to move down again. So that choppy move to the upside is just a corrective move and it tells us that we're highly likely to get below that 59,000 area. And looking at fib targets, we may be looking at at least 52,000. So I don't think it can be any surprise to us and we can expect narratives where the geopolitical situation will with Iran, Russia, Ukraine, whatever, or it could be macroeconomic with interest rate expectations, inflation or whatever. It doesn't really matter what the reasons are. But the charts are telling us very clearly and I think that crypto is behaving very much more towards the TA side than the fundamental side because as you say earnings are difficult to evaluate. Virtually no crypto has earnings. And as I say the one exception at the moment, or the big exception I should say is hyper liquid. But I don't think it's any surprise as I say that we're going to be heading lower. Charts were telling us. Absolutely. And we can even look at the charts and actually guess what the news bump might be. That's what's happening at the moment. We've got lower to go and I think the rest of crypto will follow bitcoin and not even hyper liquid will be immune as we probably had a little bit lower. So that's just my overall take at the moment. I'm pretty bearish on the market for the short medium term but following this we should hopefully get a turnaround. So they'll probably start some monetary easing after the low that we're probably going to see in October. They'll start to ease monetary policy, try to stimulate the economy, pump liquidity and that's when the markets start to rise again. So I'm sure we will see a new all time high in bitcoin, but not until next year at least. So that's just my overall take. Thank you.
- [45:54]
A
Well, I mean you know when, when I hear these takes all I think of is I don't have that kind of confidence in trying to time markets. I mean I, I, I, and I've traded, you know, professionally for a long time. My thought process is I think 60000 was the low. I think that the, there is a way we could go below it. You could end up being right if we go, if, if the entire market crashes because of a macro situation. But if the stock market continues to rally. No you're not. The charts you're looking at are ignoring what is the most important trend. And the single most important trend is we are about to see going into the summer, not unprecedented because it happened after World War II. We are going to see Fed treasury cooperation in order to juice business access to capital to juice supply chains in the United States. And that is going to be more liquidity. And that liquidity will provide a bid for risk assets full stop.
- [46:54]
H
How, how can, how can that happen with inflation rising and Getting out of control more and more.
- [46:59]
A
Well, because people continue to forget. There's a whole host of reasons there. The, the, one of the biggest single problems is with Keynesianism is, is up people's minds. You know, we've had decades of re raging inflation because of raging monetary printing. It just happens to be that inflation showed up in assets as opposed to in consumer prices. When you get an oil shock, when oil goes up, that pushes everything up. But what does the Fed have to do with the oil shock? Absolutely nothing. And in fact, if anything else, one of the other things that causes consumer which we saw in the pandemic, they handed money directly to people. At the same time, supply chains were completely fubar. That's what causes inflation, consumer inflation. The answer is, is you've seen it. Multiple people at the Fed are basically saying things like I'm saying, which is they need to increase business investment to bring down and to improve supply chains and reshore manufacturing, reshore supplies, reshore, you know, refining, you know, all those things in the United States. That's what they're looking to do. You could agree with it or disagree with it, but you can't disagree with the fact that Besent has been saying the same thing and that that's what this administration is pushing for. And that's what you would read the tea leaves now. Yes, it is really hard to do that. If oil goes can, you know, it's up 7% today. Obviously that's a problem. Right. You know, people have said they need to end this, but you know, this being the war, and that doesn't look like it's going to happen. But at some point the market's inoculated. I think that when you look at the market today and you see the NASDAQ up 15 basis points and oil up 7% or almost 8%, it's telling you that people are starting to realize that they don't care that the Fed is not going to be there to fight oil price inflation.
- [48:50]
H
I think that I would just say the old saying the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. And I think that's the situation right now. It's irrational for the NASDAQ to be rising the way it is in the these conditions.
- [49:03]
A
I actually think you're probably right, but it doesn't matter. It's the question is if Nasdaq, if risk assets continue to hang in there, to call for bitcoin to drop 30% I think is wrong. That's all I'm saying. But it's a big if 100% and you know, but I just, I just want to refine the bet, right?
- [49:22]
H
Just, just Finally Bitcoin's only 10,000 away from that 60k you talked about 10,000 nothing in Bitcoin. So I wouldn't be surprised if we get any, any further geopolitical issues.
- [49:33]
A
Anything could happen. It's, you know, anything could happen. Matthew. I, I, I started with, with the humility of saying I don't know how the timing will play out. I just know that the meta trend is more liquidity and I know that, that we've seen these, these movies before, right? You know, we, we understand when something goes out of favor is what people will eventually jump back into it and you end up with fomo, yada yada yada. And we've seen it too many. I was just pointing out software stocks did exactly the same thing. That was overdone. Right. You know, Gary was talking about the amount of money. Just think about the amount of money it takes to move over a trillion dollars in market cap, 30 to 40%, you know, in a week. And across stocks that Gary was mentioning before, we've seen that it's a lot of money, right. You know, it doesn't take that much to move in. Bitcoin today is down a whopping thousand bucks, which as you say is nothing because sale. You know, there are people out there saying oh well sailors, this is the start of a selling campaign, which is not at all true but you know, people will say that. So I mean look, there's a lot of going on, right. You know it and we are, you know, we're coming up on time. So I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna continue to ramble because there's no point. But I think, look, you encapsulate very important point, Matthew, which is that, which is, which is Gary's point. And, and it can't be and I'm not ignoring it, which is that the average crypto speculator expects lower prices and those do tend to become self fulfilling prophecies and have done so. So it could very well happen again. That's more or less what you're saying, right? I don't want to mischaracterize it, but am I getting that right? Yeah. Okay, cool.
- [51:13]
H
And yeah, pretty much. Thank you.
- [51:15]
A
Well, no, no, there's nothing wrong with that. I mean it's, look, people who, anyone who thinks that that can happen is, is delusional. Right? You know, lots of things can happen in markets. All I'll say is that markets tend to humble people who, who get too, too certain. And that's why, you know, tight stops and good traders, I mean, you know, have very tight stops and they make their, and, and can make, you can make a lot of money on the short side. As long as the one time you're wrong, you don't ride it to the point where it kills you. Right. And so it's, it's absolutely a perfectly rational thing to do. That's all I have to say. Okay, well, seems like it's Friday and everybody wants to get a start on the weekend. We will, I guess. Not Friday. It's Monday and everyone's gonna start on the week. I don't know what the hell. My thought, my thought is I'm about to get in a car and use Tesla full self driving for Lou for two days to get from Miami up to New Jersey. So I will, I'll be back on Wednesday and until then, stay safe, enjoy these weird markets that we can't figure out. And, and we'll see where hyper liquid goes between now and Wednesday. My guess is it's around. We're all, we're still sitting at similar prices, but we'll see. Okay, take care everyone.