← The Wolf Of All Streets
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Hyper Liquid just priced China's biggest IPO 6x above Wall Street. The pre IPO market on chain still going absolutely wild. In the meantime, bitcoin back above 65,000American dollars. We got a lot to talk about today and nobody to talk about it with except for myself because we failed to book a guest on accident. Let's have some fun. Let's dope. Let's go. Good morning everybody and welcome to the show. Here we are in my city, Battle Station. You can't see it on screen right now but there is a stringless ar AI generated guitar back there. I love playing guitars with no strings. AI still messes up but it's actually kind of funny. You remember when you used to do an AI image and you'd have like 12 fingers and will Smith with the spaghetti and all that. It actually is pretty impressive how far we've come. I remember those early days of AI when it was like we can only give you factual information up to 2021. Very useful. So yeah, my stringless guitar and I are going to attempt to do a show right now. We thought that we had a gu today but he's next week. Fine. Anyways, let's start with the start. Here it is. Crypto market offers pre IPO bets on Chinese chip maker C X M T. So CXMT is kind of the SK Hynix, you know Samsung in Korea that we've talked about in the past. Massive AI offerings. Well this is the big IPO that's coming from China of their effectively their equivalent and we're pricing it really, really high here on Hyper liquid which once again we're seeing price discovery on crypto rails and decentralized exchanges. Before you can get that actual price discovery or an accurate picture of what's coming in the market on actual exchanges because it's pre IPO obviously. So basically the synthetic contract values the company at roughly $535 billion more than 6 equ x right now it's official IPO valuation highlighting both intense investor enthusiasm for AI memory and the growing, grow, growing role of crypto markets and price discovery for real world assets. They're, they're pricing this at 85.5 billion for the actual IPO and we're trading here at 526% premium. There's some takes on this before we get into the deeper crypto side. So obvious looking IPO blah blah blah buzz. I don't care about that one. It's honestly disgusting how openly retail gets farmed here. Not bearish. These companies I just think the valuations US retail gets handed on day one are ridiculous. All the reasonable entry upside already happened in private, walled off from us. True. By the time we're allowed in, the tag reads. Yeah, you can see. So, so listen, basically the argument here is that in China Chinese retail gets in at much lower valuations than we do when we get rinsed on IPOs. And we know that only accredited investors in the United States are actually allowed to participate in any of this and things are already at 100x or in the stratosphere as it says, by the time we even get the chance to participate. Dare I say that China is doing this better than us, but in theory, what Hyper Liquid and other decentralized exchanges that offer these pre IPO valuations. Let's see, I think you probably have, I don't think you have xmt, but we've had a lot of these even on Coinbase, Robinhood and elsewhere is the opportunity to participate and bet on what happens at the ipo. That said, that means China would be valuing this at a 6x reduction to what we believe here on Hyper Liquid that it's worth in our markets. But this is an interesting take here. An army of traders in China, billions of people over there, that would be crazy. They're about to learn about Hyper Liquid for the first time. Expect CXMT to be another big splash for Trade xyz, which is the, you know, RWA platform here that's offering this on Hyper Liquid but just made new all time highs of 5.3 billion in daily volume. We're entering a new era of finance where anyone, anywhere can trade anything anytime. So yes, listen, I, I don't think that your average person is going to make money trading these things. Trading's hard and you all stink at it. Especially you. It's like the guy in the mirror, you're a good trader, it's like meme. But this is a new era where cryptos Rails are allowing everybody to participate here in advance. And listen, I mean there's a lot of people in China so I can say it's only good news if they are given access to crypto Rails and figure out that they can actually trade this stuff in advance. Seems like there'd be a massive arbitrage opportunity here. I highly doubt that this thing, IPOs at a 6x the offering that would be pretty unprecedented but very possible. In the meantime I used the wrong thing. This one. Hyper Liquid Policy center and Trade XYZ met with SEC's crypto task force to Address crypto regulation website can you imagine if the Hyper Liquid people had rolled in with Gary Gensler like, what's up, bro? We have an idea. They'd be getting sued like 15 times over already. It really shows you just how different the new regime is and how unprecedented. What we're seeing at the United States government right now is for how all of this is being treated. So in the meantime, in case you were wondering, also on Hyper Liquid is Hyper Liquid's top traders are more aggressively long bitcoin than during its run to 83k, last node says. So I guess the. You can see this kind of here in the green. But I guess the positive take there is that people are really optimistic. The negative take is usually when you see huge, huge stacking on one side, you get rinsed. But that can happen for a while because obviously then you get the squeeze and somebody takes advantage of the funding and of the opening interest being unidirectional and they go the other way. But you can see, I mean, you know, this was all like heavily shorted, clearly, and Price went down pretty massively. And actually price went down after the massive spike. So I guess that would indicate that price could go up after the massive spikes here. Although it hasn't really happened. If, if I'm looking at this green chart, spike here, price with spike here, price spike here. It was gonna go up. That's what it's got to. Because we're. Otherwise we have to have fun staying poor, which is no fun. Okay, but here, let me. You know, this will give me an opportunity to talk a little bit about bitcoin because I have a chart here and whatever. I just like to show you that I know there's a lot of still negative sentiment. Things are going to go down. But here we are on the daily chart. I was never an MA guy, but moving averages, but it does give us information as to like kind of mean reversion. Well, you'll see that we have not been above the 50 ma on the daily since May. And we just broke above it really strongly yesterday and moving now above. So that would give us a target at least of the 200 ma here up in the low 70s. Let's go to the Weekly, see what, see what the weekly's got to say. I've showed you this many times before. Go back in history. I don't know if these are all circled or not because I haven't looked at this chart in a while. But you can see all the times that we've tested the 200 ma on the weekly besides FTX when we stayed below this has always been sort of market bottomy support and right now as we zoom on into that you can see we broke it for a week strongly came back now flipping it to support. So that gives us the 50 ma above is at least you know in the mid-80s. So that's optimism. Doesn't mean we're going new all time highs but every single time frame right now look at the 50mA on the monthly look at that. Right. So listen, I'm not saying that the bottom is in. I feel that way but I'm saying that there's a lot of evidence in the face of very emotional angry people that we could be bottoming, bottoming not you know, bottom in and bottom ming. I don't know, we could stay here for many months chop from the 50s up to the 70s or 80s. Apple mousse is the best. This one almost tastes like something. Most of them taste like nothing or pledge you ever drink Pledge? Me? I don't know. I guess it would be like so that you don't think I drink cleaners although probably get you high. It tastes like pledge smells right. And then I can be non specific so that you don't think that I'm like huffing floor cleaner. Hey. The Ethereum foundation trying to get their shit together Ethereum Foundation's privacy spin out target to bank confidentiality deck this is actually really interesting. I think we're publishing on Saturday I did a podcast with Rand from Zama and they are dominating right now in the institutional privacy protocol space and obviously a lot of these chains seeing the success there and of Canton and others realize that institutions are not going to participate in crypto unless privacy is a given privacy or we could even call it confidentiality in this case like developing confidential transfers. I mean think of it this way, like if you're BlackRock and you send JP Morgan money from one bank account to another in theory would you want everybody to be able to do that? I want to see that. They don't want me to see that. Right. And the problem with public blockchains is that yeah, you may not know it's my bank account and your bank account but everybody can see where some money was sent and with any decent on chain analysis probably tie that to you. Institutions can't do that. Right. The largest institutions on the planet need to know planet need to know that their banking that their transactions are completely confidential. And Ethereum here launching ETH systems Ethereum foundation researchers launching institutional grade privacy systems called ETH systems. So they're basically developing confidential transfers, private bond issuance, privacy preserving identity, and confidential settlement systems designed specifically for institutional users. Now, listen, I haven't even looked at the chart. I should look, I bet. I. Guys, I've been so out to lunch, be honest with you on what's happening in, like, the market specifically. I'm on top of the news, obviously, but I know, you know, ETH has been outperforming. I have not looked at an ETH BTC chart in forever. I'm just going to yolo wing it over here and see what we're seeing. Yeah, I mean, no surprise, but there's a weekly chart and for the past, you know, three weeks, ETH has been outperforming Bitcoin. I mean, let's. Let's do some things. Yeah, we can do things. I used to do these things. This is what my streams used to be. Not hard to see if you pull this idea. Oh, yeah, guys, ETH is that. I can't remember the last time I was like, hey, ETH looks great. ETH looks great. ETH looks great, right? I mean, you're going back all the way into. Was that 20? 24. I'm so blind. 25. Yeah, 25. That looks good. My screen's over there. I'm over here. Shut up. Yeah, I mean, Ethereum, it looks like it's poised to outperform here, at least all the way up to this area and probably higher. So, yeah, there's a lot of tailwinds, actually, after Vitalik kind of came out with his capitulatory messaging on the ETH foundation. And we're just another node, obviously. You've got Bitmine out there and Tom Lee and all these guys, and I think ETH is catching a real tailwind here. And listen, I mean, let's be honest, you can be bearish on ETH all you want, but Robinhood Chain is. Is a layer two on each. And Robinhood Chain, like, I think. I think people are probably discounting how important Robinhood Chain is. And they have tens of millions of users who now can just click a button. Not really know they're doing crypto stuff and do crypto stuff. Right. And meme coins exploding there again, as predicted. And I think it's going to probably become one of the major competitors. I have no idea how to use it. I don't really know what a blockchain is, to be honest. And talking about what's a blockchain? Layer two. I remember having a conversation with Sandeep From Matic in, it was Austin, I think, years ago. It was one of those conversations, you look back, you're like, yeah, that didn't happen. And it was all about how we were going to get to layer fives and six and sevens with billion users. Turns out we just got a bunch of more layer twos that are kind of better and competitive layer ones. Things we got wrong in the past. So I was gone, you know, yesterday and war said stuff which apparently is important and you care about worse, says the Fed will not tolerate persistently high inflation. Guys, hair so good. Where are my memes? God. Great. We'll just call him Dark Helmet. I don't need to show it. But Kevin Dark Helmet Warsh here, he reiterates in Congress his commitment to bring price growth Back to the 2.2% target. Good luck. I mean, kind of interesting here because, you know, if he wants inflation to come down, you would think that he would check notes, raise rates. Does anybody think that they're going to raise rates? So dumb people were betting on that. And smart people. I've been telling you, this guy, he didn't come in to raise rates. Right. Like Trump doesn't have his hand up his butt doing the little sock puppet thing so that he can raise rates and make things worse at the midterms. Like, I think they may stay steady, but if they cut, inflation will rise. So that's kind of an interesting nuance. But let's see what Kalshee is saying here. Fed decision, 95% chance that the Fed maintains. And this blue one right here, this was hike. Went from. I wish I could see things. Anybody see that number? 20 ish. 19 something down to 19.8. Thank you for reading for me, John. Ladies and gentlemen, what are we at now? 6.2%. I have a weird thing. See these? This is where I get all my ideas. It's actually the first time I think you ever talked to me in the middle of the show to help me. But can you guys hear him? No, that you can't hear him. You should be able to hear him. He giggles a lot. Said he could turn it on. Told for now, buddy. Not sure. We need a laugh track on my show. Do you guys remember the show? Like sitcoms from the 80s? Totally real. Laugh in the back. His is real, though. It's good. Nice laugh. Keep him around. Here's. Here's a stupid story. Terrible fall 7% after New York orders one year pause on new data center permits. Not stupid about terrible, but stupid because New York is stupid. New York consistently does a very good job of the full barbell of being worst and best at the same time with nothing in between. Like, you know, I went to New York City the night I was there, the night the Knicks won, and I was at the Tribeca Film Festival and Alicia Keys came out and performed with Nas and the whole city was going nuts. And Brazil had just played Morocco that same day in the World cup. And it was like, there's no better place than this on Earth. And then you read this stuff and you go full mom down here, like there's no worse place on earth, you know. But this week, so, so New York, the, the governor, she's saying that we're not going to get any more data center growth there. She cites concerns about the environment and all the same things. And it's like literally we can just zoom back. I'll never forget that when they said that like in Seneca Lake, one of the Finger Lakes, there was a mining green something. I'm trying to remember the name. I was there and there was a mining facility that was right next to my friend's house on Seneca Lake. And I was swimming in that cold ass frigid bullshit you guys consider recreational water in the north. Come to Florida, the water's actually warm. Your lakes are beautiful, but they suck for going in. And there was a report like a story in like the New York Times or something came out, was like water temperatures by the mining plant are 20 degrees warmer than normal. And I was like, it's fucking freezing. I'm swimming right next to it. Completely coincidentally. And then they banned like bitcoin mining in New York or like a moratorium like this. So the same like backward looking nonsense based on no evidence to make sure that the United States or New York specifically lag wildly behind. I mean a statewide AI data center. Pause. How stupid is this when we're trying to compete? But the good news is like it's just gonna not do. They'll just not do it in New York and we'll move on to better places for that. Guys, I don't know if you can tell. I just got a bunch of tabs and I'm finding stuff out when you are. So the next big story that I've done a ton of research on, PayPal jumps 20 in pre market on report of Stripe advent 53 billion takeover offer. This is actually pretty interesting. I don't really see the crypto side of it being reported, which is that paypal has P Y USD PY USD. You say that you ever do Those things, you know, like on the children's menu when they're like scramble these letters, come up with another word. It's like spaghetti and it's all jumbled. Or burger and it's all jumbled. Unscramble. Py. USD. You're going to get pretty close. You have no idea what I'm talking about. Okay. PST. So the PST coin, that's, that was launched by PayPal. And you may have seen that Stripe did a little acquisition of a company called Bridge, I think it was last year. It was a unicorn. And then announced, oh, USD, which is open. USD, which is a consortium of 140 companies that it's been widely reported had no idea they were part of this consortium. That's fine. Samsung was like our logos on that. I don't know who you are, but anyways, how Was your stripe, MasterCard, AmEx, Visa? So you have the company that's launching this consortium and Bridge's CEO is running it with their stablecoin trying to buy the biggest name in payments, which would also mean buying their stablecoin. But more interestingly, this would take PayPal effectively private. Right? The, you know, that's why you're seeing this, this big jump. It would be a 50, 50 venture between Stripe and Advent and each of them would effectively own 50% of this and their takeover offers at 60, $60.50 per share, a 28% premium to its previous clothing price, closing price. But like $53 billion checks notes in 2021, PayPal is worth $360 billion. There's no deal guaranteed here. This is some Richard Gear and Pretty Woman. Hostile takeover. That's what his job was in that movie. It wasn't just marrying hookers. Do you guys remember, like, is Pretty Woman a thing that you guys remember? Julia Roberts? Screw you guys. But yeah, Richard Gere was like a corporate raider. He was a private equity guy who would go in and buy companies and chop them up. And then he got a conscience because he met a prostitute in la, which happens probably in LA all the time. And so anyways, that's kind of what's happening here. PayPal's like, dude, we have no idea what you're talking about. We're not entertaining this. But like they might have to entertain it if it's a good deal. I kind of remember. Seems like when Musk bought X, X was not answering his calls and he seemed to get that done. So yeah, that's that story that'll be interesting, I guess, for people who care about Payments stuff. So the next kind of bucket of stories we have here. Looking at my notes provided by my amazing new team who give me notes and smart things to say that I forget to read. I actually can't. My, my, my, my contacts get so blurry. Japan, South Korea and UK continue global shift toward crypto friendly regulation. So I guess maybe the bigger story is that the Clarity act ain't fucking happening in the United States. We had like three more demons. I think they just released the new Clarity act language. I think I read that the merged bill, that board doesn't even mention ethics, which is like the whole thing. All the Democrats were like, guys, we can't do this. Lindsay Graham also, he died. May he rest in. I don't know where he's going to rest. I do not begrudge the dead, but in life that guy sucked. Hope he's better in death. Warmongering lunatic. But he was one of the Democrats who, may he rest in, who was for, for the Clarity Act. So you got kind of one less Democrat that, that's for it. Did we ever find out if Harry Reid's alive? Mitch McConnell. Reed's dead. Is he alive? McConnell. Mitch McConnell. They showed a picture of him and people were like, it's supposed to be him in a hospital bed, but he's wearing jeans and has 12 fingers and he's using a computer mouse. They're like, bro, it's like he's in a chair. Fine, you're allowed to wear jeans in a chair. So we don't know if he's live. But a lot of, sort of, a lot of concern that you're never going to get enough Democrats on board for the Clarity Act. It's not like people like me have been saying that for eight months. But apparently that's not the story we're supposed to be talking about today. Story we're talking about today is Japan, the UK and South Korea all doing positive things. Japan passes key bill recognizing crypto Crypto's financial product lowering tax rate. This is good news. It has widely. We've already reported on this quite a few times, but now it's actually officially happening. So Japan's parliament passed legislation to regulate crypto under the same framework as securities, paving the way for lower taxes, crypto ETFs and broader institutional participation. You'll remember that Meta Planet was so popular as a bitcoin treasury company in Japan because the tax burden on buying and selling Bitcoin was so great, like 50% or something. But having a rapper to invest in bitcoin with a securities law instead of a bitcoin law gave this massive tax arbitrage and advantage opportunity. And that's why Meta Planet was so popular. Okay, well that's. That's not happening anymore. Now you can actually do it with bitcoin. It's good news, uk. There's a whole lot of things going on on this screen. Ads. Let's kill those later. Did you know that Tyler Durden wrote this? Guys, you might not know this, but in that movie it's one guy close my mind I saw there was like a. Photos Great. I think it was at the World Cup. There was a photo of like Ed Norton like giving Brad Pitt a high five. And it was like both of Tyler Durden's personalities were in the same place meeting himself. All right. Something. I don't remember what the meme was, was funnier than whatever I just said, but it was good. UK adopts no gain, no loss tax treatment for crypto lending and liquidity pools. This is really smart. And the uk like they've been all over it. Crazy. Maybe it's because they're like doing good in the World cup and remembering that they don't suck at everything. Especially Revolutionary Wars America. Yeah. UK removes a major DeFi tax hurdle beginning in 2027. Moving crypto into eligible lending protocols or liquidity pools will no longer trigger an immediate capital gains tax event. Taxes will instead be deferred until assets are actually sold or withdrawn, making defi significantly more tax efficient. They also had these crazy stablecoin laws they were going to go for. And then they massively reduced that burden. The UK actually to their credit, moving in the right direction here on crypto and arguably moving ahead of the good old unsunday. US and a South Korea to bring crypto under new state asset management law rather than banning or restricting crypto. Leading financial hub are increasingly competing to attract digital asset businesses. Clear regulations, better tax treatment and institutional friendly frameworks. That's all the stories we pulled up for today. How you guys do it over there. His name is Robert Paulson. This is a good movie, man. Fight Club was a good movie. I think. I wish I could see your comments better. I do. Maybe I can make them bigger commies. Read that one. What does that say? I don't know. Try to go to new comment bubble Bumblebees. Bumblebees. She likes Fight Club. Card card. Red penalty. Red card. Whatever, man. All right, guys. That is all I got for the 12 of you today that are still showing up in the summer to watch crypto content. Deeply appreciate you guys. I will be back tomorrow with Nico Lechuga as my guest. He's awesome. That's all we got for you today. I will check in on you guys tomorrow. Mental. Mental health check. See you guys then. Today's video is sponsored by Securitize. You've heard the word tokenization. Putting assets like funds, bonds, treasuries and stocks on chain. Securitize is the regulated infrastructure the biggest names in finance build on. They're the tokenization partner for BlackRock's on chain treasury fund bidl working with new York Stock Exchange, Vaneck, Hamilton Lane and Apollo sec regulated entities nearly nine years running. Most money still moves through slow decades old systems. Securitize puts the real asset on chain itself. Not a synthetic, a wrapped token standing in for it. And regulated in the United States. It's the institutional grade bridge between traditional finance and crypto. They didn't just build it, they just proved it. Listing their own stock on the New York Stock Exchange and simultaneously tokenizing it on chain on Solana and Avalanche. The first and only public company built entirely for this. Their mission, Tokenize the world. Learn more@securitizeio this is a paid partnership, not investment advice.