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The Wolf Of All Streets
Invest In Bitcoin! Why Billionaire Ray Dalio is Betting Big on Bitcoin
00:42:35
Invest In Bitcoin! Why Billionaire Ray Dalio is Betting Big on Bitcoin
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- [00:00]
Scott Melker
Billionaire Ray Dalio has changed his tune on bitcoin, which seems to be a common trend among billionaires and the largest institutions in the world. Bitcoin has become a part of the mainstream conversation. We're going to tell you why Ray Dalio once again is bullish on bitcoin. But I've got a very special guest today. We've been chasing him for months. It's basically like trying to get Michael Jordan on your show. We've had the other two ETF bros, as we like to call them, James Safer and Eric Balchunas all the time. But Nate Gracie, the president of the ETF Store, has never been on the show before. It's Jurassic. I say Guraci. It's Garachi, it's Karachi. It doesn't matter. Nate is here. We're gonna have a great chat about the success of the ETFs, why people are buying bitcoin, and how we're viewing our asset class now from an institutional perspective, of course. Texas West Capital on the back half. Let's go.
- [00:50]
Nate Garachi
Let's do. Let's go.
- [01:05]
Scott Melker
What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Hit that like button. I love you guys in the chat. You're a troll, Benjamin. No sound. Scott, you almost gave me a minor heart attack because obviously yesterday we had thousands of comments. No sound. We tried to launch the stream again. No sound. That was a stream yard error. It wasn't us. So screw you guys. Honestly, no, we didn't do anything wrong. It was across all streamyard platforms for the exact 20 minutes that we attempted to do it. We tried making recordings. They had no sound. And then 20 minutes later, all of a sudden, everything worked, but it was too late. And we had to send Andrew Tillman and Jeff from Bitwise home. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Nate right now. I purposely butchered your name in like 15 ways just to make sure that I covered it up.
- [01:51]
Nate Garachi
I think you got close enough. One of those was. Was pretty good.
- [01:54]
Scott Melker
So, yeah, nailed one of them. So that's my hit rate with trades. You know, if we go 1 in 10, we do pretty well. So it's really a pleasure to have you on here. You offer great commentary, obviously on X and your interviews, your podcast. Let's talk about ETFs first, obviously. I want to actually start with Ethereum ETF, if you don't mind. We've got a tweet from you right here. Make that eight straight days of inflows into iShares Ethereum ETF. Over 1 billion total. Top four ETF launch of 2024 out of approximately 675 ETFs. We've talked about the Bitcoin ETFs obviously endlessly. We all know how successful they are, the most successful arguably in history. But everybody's been poo pooing these ETFs as an utter failure. And here we are, maybe it's just relative to the bitcoin one, but top four of 2024 are now getting this sort of a crazy run.
- [02:44]
Nate Garachi
Yeah, I mean, look, we're at nearly $2 billion in inflows from these products that just launched at the end of July. And people have to remember that these have only been on the market for a few months. It was a tough opening act to follow after the spot Bitcoin ETFs debut. And I think that sucked a little bit of the oxygen out of the room. And you know, we can talk about the Bitcoin ETF specifically, but I'll tell you, from an advisor's perspective or from an institutional investor's perspective, there is a long due diligence process on any asset class, whether we're talking about equity markets, bonds, we want to look into alternatives. Certainly in the crypto space and in the Spot Bitcoin ETF space, there are still a lot of advisors and institutional investors in that due diligence process. And that's going to continue over the next year. So now let's talk about the spot Ethereum ETFs. They haven't even begun thinking about this yet. This is, this isn't even on their radar. And you know, when you think about Bitcoin, I think it's much easier to distill down into a very simple topic that people can understand. You can say, hey, this is digital gold. This is a store of value. Something along those lines. Ethereum takes a little bit more work to get your head around. I think of it as a technology, but if you're not familiar with the space, you may think of it as something similar to Bitcoin, which you know is not the case. So point being, there's just a lot more education that has to happen around, around Ether. But I think the debut you mentioned, the iShares Ethereum ETF, look, this is a top three or four ETF launch out of 675 ETFs year to date. That's remarkable. And it's pushing nearly 3 billion in inflow so there's no way to characterize that as anything other than a massive success.
- [04:29]
Scott Melker
The launches themselves were utterly botched by the SEC as well. Right. We got this sort of crazy overnight approval that nobody was expected. These issuers did not think that they were going to have to start marketing or considering these products. And then it took months for them to actually start trading. And it was in still, I think what we would describe as sort of the depths of the bear market for certainly altcoins.
- [04:49]
Nate Garachi
Yeah, I think there's something to that. You may know I was a lot more optimistic that the spot ether ETFs would be approved. I just didn't see how the SEC was going to disapprove those without facing a lawsuit. Because again, you had the situation where we had CME traded bitcoin futures, you had CME traded Bitcoin futures, ETFs. And then we had the spot Bitcoin ETFs come to market. Of course, that took a grayscale lawsuit. Well, you had the same thing on the ether side. You had seen me traded ether futures, you had CME traded ether futures ETFs. I didn't see how the SEC wanted to prove those. But I hear what you're saying in that it, it seemed like the SEC was scrambling a little bit last minute. I don't know if that was intentional. I'm not going to try to come up with the conspiracies that, you know, theory there. But I agree it probably wasn't as organized of a launch as ETF issuers would.
- [05:42]
Scott Melker
I mean, the bitcoin one, the Coin Tucky derby, as all of you guys were referring to it, as we had anticipation for months and marketing and commercials, Ethan was like, oh, cool, I guess we're going to do this too. But listen, I think this also is just cyclical. With the crypto market, Bitcoin reaches a certain psychological threshold, like 100,000, six or eight months after the halving, and then the liquidity just starts to trickle down. And I think we're seeing that in the ETFs as well with this renewed interest.
- [06:12]
Nate Garachi
Yeah. And I'll tell you, historically in the ETF space, you see that across all asset classes. This isn't rocket science. Right. You typically see flows follow performance because everybody's human. Advisors are human, investors are human. When they see performance, they want to, they want to chase it. And so if you see the underlying asset performing well or assets performing well, typically flows will follow.
- [06:34]
Scott Melker
Yeah, that makes perfect sense. So I've got another tweet by you here. Just I think to kind of put some of this in perspective for how well the ETFs in general have done. Not specific to Ethereum. 670 ETFs have launched in 2024. Nine of the top 10 by assets are crypto related. Total domination. I included top 11 ETFs here given GBTC was an uplisting. But I mean, have you ever seen anything like this?
- [06:56]
Nate Garachi
No, I. I mean, look, I want to give you a stat here. I talked about this earlier in the week. If you look at the spot Bitcoin ETF category, the total assets now across the whatever 11 or 12 products that are out is about $110 billion. You know what the total assets are in physical gold ETFs which have been around for 20 plus years? It's 125 billion. So in 11 months you have spot Bitcoin ETFs as a category only $15 billion behind a major ETF category in physical gold ETFs that have been around for 20 years. And my expectation as we head into 2025 is that the spot Bitcoin ETF category is going to surpass physical gold ETFs. That could happen in the first part of the year if we continue the trajectory of flows that we've seen here recently. You look at something like I bet the iShares Bitcoin ETF over 50 billion in assets. I think the flows year to date or something around 35 billion. It's lapping the field. You just haven't seen an ETF with this type of success. I was looking the other day, if you go back 10 years, I think there were only two other ETFs over those 10 years that have had the type of success that the iShares Bitcoin ETF has had. And that's out of like nearly 3000 ETF. So I could keep going with the stats. You probably see I have fun out on Twitter with its stats because every stat you look at, it's just remarkable. Blows your mind. And I don't know that people fully appreciate the numbers that spot Bitcoin ETFs are posting.
- [08:28]
Scott Melker
Right? I know that they haven't like writ large Bitcoin ETFs haven't surpassed gold. But I did read not so long ago that at least for BlackRock, their Bitcoin ETF had surpassed their gold ETF.
- [08:39]
Nate Garachi
Which is sort of a market. I think it'll track down gld, which is the most popular physical gold etf. I think it's just a matter of time.
- [08:47]
Scott Melker
Yeah. So I think I want to pivot a bit here. I mean, you talked about the fact that everybody doesn't even have access to these yet, specifically Ethereum. People aren't even looking at them yet. Right. I think it's clearly retail driven, but from a number of institutions, we've seen them slowly coming online, wire houses starting to approve them. I've seen numbers. I spoke to Matt Hogan for Bitwise a few weeks ago here and he said maybe 50% of people have access to these things. Right.
- [09:11]
Nate Garachi
Yeah, I think that's fair. And that you have to, you have to combine that with the numbers that I was just talking about. Like, everybody knows these aren't available on Vanguard's brokerage platform and never will be.
- [09:21]
Scott Melker
Probably.
- [09:21]
Christopher Inks
Yeah.
- [09:21]
Nate Garachi
And probably never will. Matt. Matt's going to have better numbers than I will in terms of the wirehouse access. But the bottom line is the vast majority of the major wirehouse platforms have not fully opened up access to these products. That's a major distribution channel for any etf. You know, think about options trading. I bring that up because options trading on Bitcoin ETFs was just recently approved. We didn't have that for nine or 10 months. And if you think about institutional investors who maybe want ways to hedge, they want to minimize that volatility, they want to run more complex strategies. They weren't dabbling in the space until the options were available. Point being, you had a lot of major distribution channels or investors who weren't even contributing to the ridiculous numbers we've seen from swap Bitcoin ETFs.
- [10:10]
Scott Melker
Yeah. So imagine what happens when they all come online if we're still in the middle of a bull run and prices are higher. We all know that the best marketing for any of this is price going up. Right. I mean, specifically for bitcoin and crypto. So if those things, alliance could be astounding. I mean, speaking of people who have generally been offline, Goldman Sachs CEO says firm could consider Bitcoin Ether trading if U.S. regulation shifts. So we have a lot of these institutions probably actually waiting to see what happens with a less contentious CFTC or SEC or maybe some legislation coming online. David Solomon also is a dj, which I think is relevant. But yeah, I mean, you know, Goldman wrote a very bullish letter basically on crypto and said, but, you know, we're waiting to see for regulatory clarity. I mean, do you think that that's what's happening here? Even for access to A lot of these ETFs.
- [10:58]
Nate Garachi
I do, by the way, seems to.
- [10:59]
Scott Melker
Have pretty good regulatory clarity now.
- [11:01]
Nate Garachi
Yeah. Don't you love, by the way, all of these major institutions who were so negative on bitcoin a couple of years ago, everybody's come around. It's like clockwork. But, yeah, I think for a lot of the tradfi space, they were waiting, or they still are waiting for more clarity on the regulatory side. Now, it's been well documented. I think the Trump administration is going to be much more friendly towards crypto. There's going to be a crypto czar and David Sachs. We have Paul Atkins, who's going to be replacing Gary Gensler as the SEC chair. He's viewed as crypto friendly. So all of the messaging coming out of the incoming administration is that they're going to be much more friendly towards crypto. If that's the case, I think you're going to see institutions like Goldman Sachs and others fall in line. They, they like to have that regulatory path nice and clear. They don't want to have, you know, a bunch of bushes and, and monsters and animals jumping out on that path. They want to see a clear regulatory path. So, yeah, I think we'll see more of that. I think it'll be a tailwind for the space overall.
- [12:04]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Solomon, the CEO of Goldman, was specifically asked if they would make markets in bitcoin. And his quote was, if the regulatory structure changes, we'll evaluate that. But at the moment we're not permitted to. I mean, they literally just can't, you know. And so I think a lot of people hopeful for the first hundred days of the next administration. But I think it remains to be seen whether this ends up being the priority that our echo chamber believes that it will be, or whether this could be kicked down the road for larger issues. I think that swayed the election.
- [12:33]
Nate Garachi
Yeah, it's a great point. And let's remember not to send a chill up everybody's spine, but remember when Gary Gensler was coming in as. Yes. He said everybody was talking about his, you know, teaching blockchain courses at MIT and he was going to be, you know, crypto friendly. There's not been a more aggressive regulator probably across the financial markets than he has been. And so I think you have. You raise a good point in that there is a lot of positivity around the incoming Trump administration and hopefully that that's the case, but we don't know that for certain. And even if, even if that is the way they feel, you're Right. In that we don't know that that's going to be a priority. There's a lot of things that's on that administration's plate besides crypto.
- [13:10]
Scott Melker
Either way, I think it's fair to say that zoom back a year, 18 months, 24 months, it's almost unimaginable that we be in such a positive situation. So whether it gets done in the first hundred days or 300 or 1200, I think a lot of things are coming. And I mean, there's a sentiment here I wanted to share. He kind of talked about the billionaires, the institutions and them coming around. Right. You said, you know, all these institutions, it's funny to see how dismiss they were recently. I don't know if you saw Ray Dalio's comments, but he basically said don't buy, you know, bonds, don't buy debt anymore. It's going to blow up and you should be buying gold and bitcoin. But I think this is notable because it was not long ago that he was very dismissive. He said In February of 23, not long ago, it's not going to be an effective money. It's not an effective store or hold of wealth. It's not an effective medium of exchange. This is not a bitcoin bull. I always talk about the fact that I respect people with strong opinions loosely held. And all the billionaires and institutions that have come around to bitcoin, even to your point, they were once dismissive. And yeah, people point to saylor tweeting in 2012 that Bitcoin was stupid. Well, in 2012, most people thought bitcoin was stupid. Right now, he's the biggest bull there is. But these guys are coming around one by one. And Dalio is really notable for this position.
- [14:26]
Nate Garachi
Yeah, you know, my, my take on that is. And this isn't any sort of view on the future price of bitcoin, I want to be clear on that. But don't you think it's becoming a risk not to be allocated to bitcoin or at least not to be paying attention to the space? And I think that's what's happening with a lot of these billionaire investors. They've again, poo pooed the category for so long, they dismissed it. And at some point with what we've seen in the price action from bitcoin, especially this year, and as we talked about with some more regulatory clarity with the ETFs coming online, you can't just dismiss that anymore. And once in my, in my own personal experience, once you once you start traveling down that path towards educating yourself on Bitcoin, you inevitably go down the rabbit hole that takes you down other rabbit holes around monetary policy and understand inflation and economics. Once you get down that path, it's tough to go back. It's like once you see it, you can't unsee it. And again, that's not any sort of commentary on what's going to happen with the price of bitcoin. But I think when you have smart people like Dalio, the light bulb goes off. It's happened to you, it's happened to me. Once that light bulb goes off, you can't turn it off.
- [15:36]
Scott Melker
And I think for the first time in at least my life, we're really talking about the issues that bitcoin addresses in general. People are very wary obviously of inflation. They know what it is, they maybe didn't before when it didn't affect their lives. And I think that leads to more of a education in bitcoin. Just the right environment or breeding ground, I think for people to better understand the asset because they're feeling the problems that it could potentially solve. I mean, pivoting to the other billionaire who obviously I mentioned before, probably the biggest bitcoin bull in the world, Microsoft says no to micro strategy. Bitcoin strategy, okay, he had his three minute pitch where he somehow slid in 41 slides, which I love, but, and by the way, Amazon now, somebody, an activist investor, is pushing for them to allocate 5%. I doubt that will happen, but still on the docket. But NASDAQ apparently saying yes to including MicroStrategy in the NASDAQ 100. This is huge. This is the cues, right? Microsoft is currently a top three holding in NASDAQ 100. MicroStrategy, Bitcoin strategy is only reason it's up for inclusion in NASDAQ 100. Around and around we go. What does it mean for MicroStrategy to now be included in the NASDAQ top 100? Some saying it'll be further momentum here for MicroStrategy, obviously.
- [16:49]
Nate Garachi
Okay, so I have a lot of views on this. First of all, I think undoubtedly it's positive for bitcoin overall because the reason, as I described in that tweet, that MicroStrategy's market cap is what it is, that's ultimately comes down to its holdings in Bitcoin. And so I think, I think that's great. It's gonna, there's gonna, it's gonna generate a tremendous amount of exposure. And I also do think even if even Though Microsoft voted down this proposal to include bitcoin in their Treasury. I think we're going to see a number of major companies in the major indices start thinking real long and hard about at least having a small allocation to bitcoin. Going back to what we were talking about with the billionaires. There's some risk to not being allocated there now. You know, in terms of Saylor, when I say I have mixed views, I want to be clear. I think Michael Saylor has been a tremendous spokesperson for bitcoin.
- [17:42]
Scott Melker
We all give the caveat. By the way, it's the same with every single one of us. We love Michael Saylor.
- [17:47]
Nate Garachi
Well, no, I think he's.
- [17:48]
Scott Melker
No, I. I do. I mean, listen, I, like, literally, like, I got the invitation to his New Year's Eve party yesterday. We're friendly, but I have my concerns.
- [17:55]
Nate Garachi
Yeah. And look, I just want to be clear. He has generated a lot of awareness and he's helped educate around bitcoin. That. That's amazing. But micro strategy, the stock itself. And again, this is not investment advice. I have to state that because I'm an SEC registered advisor. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to me because you're paying a significant premium to basically own Bitcoin. And I fully. I get the bitcoin yield. People are going to start blowing me up on Twitter. I. I understand how the bitcoin yield works, but from my perspective, that's essentially new investors who are overpaying to subsidize that bitcoin yield for existing investors. And that works just fine as long as you have new investors willing to pay a premium, whatever it is now 3x4x and the price of bitcoin continues to go up. So the point here is. I see. I'm going to say I have three thoughts. Two are positive, one is negative. The two positives are that I think what MicroStrategy is doing in terms of owning Bitcoin and Treasury, I think we're going to see a lot of other major companies do the same. I also think Saylor has been a tremendous advocate and educator around bitcoin. On the other hand, I'm not so sure. MicroStrategy makes a ton of sense to me in terms of the business model per se itself. And I do worry that new investors coming in, you know, could be left holding the bag.
- [19:14]
Scott Melker
Yeah. And he has really, really, really ramped up the bitcoin buying. Some of the stats we look at are pretty astounding. He. I think we have four Mondays in a row with multiple billion dollar purchases of bitcoin. Right. I mean and these are obviously at higher prices, which I don't fault him for. He said he's always going to buy. Raising $42 billion as of October to buy more bitcoin. This is a pretty astounding. The firm has quickly accelerated its bitcoin purchases. While it took almost a year to amass its first 100000 tokens, it only took two weeks to go from 300000 tokens to 400000 tokens. With its large sash of bitcoin, its holdings are worth more than Nvidia Corp. Cash holdings and all but six of the non financial companies listed on the S&P 500 index. Obviously the fear here that people keep expressing is what happens if bitcoin price goes down tremendously. Listen, I don't think MicroStrategy ends up insolvent under. No, I don't think that at all. I don't think that matters. But I think to your point that's a, it's a risk for the stockholders.
- [20:16]
Nate Garachi
Yeah, for sure. And that's all I'm saying is for new holders coming in at the premium they're paying. I personally would prefer just to buy Bitcoin direct. One thing I want to comment on when you were talking about the amount of bitcoin Micro Strategy is purchasing. Think about this. Just take a step back. We know the demand that the spot Bitcoin ETFs are, are driving. Right? We know the amount of or the, the amount of bitcoin that they're buying. And you combine that with what Micro Strategy is buying now do the math on how many new bitcoin are mined each day. And it's not even close. Again, not any sort of commentary on price. People can, can draw their own conclusions. But if you look at those numbers, it's astounding.
- [20:57]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I agree. Listen, as somebody was saying yesterday on the show that nobody could hear before we realized nobody could hear. Tillman was saying we've had a lot of bitcoin kind of Jesus characters. Most of them don't end well. I love Sailor. I think it will end well. I think he'll be viewed as the Warren Buffett of our generation. But trees don't grow all the way to the sky as they say. At some point there has to be a cap and I think there will be a correction and people just need to be very careful. But I can tell you that nobody seems to be afraid to start following the microstrategy strategy. No, no pun intended here, at least in the crypto world. Mara holdings, among followers of MicroStrategy's playbook. So we saw marathon raise, now their second raise of convertible debt to do the exact same thing that Michael Saylor is doing now. We've seen core scientific, these are all miners and riot platforms do billion ish, 600 million to billion dollar raises. I don't know how many people can do this or how much demand there will be for these notes, but a lot of people are buying these notes.
- [22:03]
Nate Garachi
Like, yeah, for sure.
- [22:04]
Scott Melker
Hedge funds are trading beyond even buying MicroStrategy struck, by the way, the notes themselves have become very popular, no question. Yeah, yeah.
- [22:13]
Nate Garachi
But it also gets back into what I was saying earlier. Even if some of these companies aren't issuing convertibles, if they're just allocating some of their existing treasury to Bitcoin, that could go a long way towards, you know, driving price. By, by the way, you were mentioning earlier the how I noted the top, you know, 10 launches of 2024. Two of those are leveraged micro strategy ETFs in the assets. And those things, they haven't been on the market that long. It's unbelievable how quickly those have grown. They've had a hard time actually keeping up with it because they're unable to get the swap exposure that they need. So they had to go to the options market.
- [22:52]
Scott Melker
Well, people might not remember actually when The Bitcoin Futures ETFs launched, which of course marked a significant market top, but there was so much demand for those, it was a billion dollars in the first day to the first one that they weren't able to buy enough futures contracts to actually fill the orders and had to go out to two and three and four months instead of a month. And made those products really unattractive because they weren't tracking the underlying spot at all.
- [23:17]
Nate Garachi
That's right, yeah. With the position limits that they had.
- [23:20]
Scott Melker
Yeah. And so it really is a risk. But you have here. This is not from. These are not his words. But we estimate the probability of the leveraged MicroStrategy ETFs going bust in the next year at between 20 to 50%. It's pretty wide margin. But I mean, what makes these things get completely wrecked? And this is not MicroStrategy and these are the ETFs that are leveraged. So trading leverage on a highly leveraged, effectively asset already, well over time, on.
- [23:46]
Nate Garachi
A long enough time horizon with a highly volatile asset, those things will continue to trend towards zero. That's just how the math works. But on a shorter time horizon, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to deduce that if, let's say micro strategy were to have a, you know, 30, 40, 50% decline over a short amount of time. There you go. Two times that and that'll take it to zero. So it's just, it's a risk. I mean those, those tools, those are high octane tools, those leverage micro strategy ETFs. I think it was Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas who, he's looked at this and he said these are the most volatile products that are available on the market.
- [24:28]
Scott Melker
I mean, it was like the most heavily traded asset on Wall street. Right. I mean, MicroStrategy stock itself. So you add a little leverage to that and you know exactly how that potentially ends. I mean, we had a day. I'm looking at the microstrategy chart. It topped at 540 and bottomed at 371 on the same day. It would be in the mid-500 and the mid-300 in the same day is pretty volatile.
- [24:50]
Nate Garachi
Yeah, I could see a real quick unwind of those ETFs again, but it would take MicroStrategy having a significant down move.
- [24:58]
Scott Melker
Yeah, for sure. But I think MicroStrategy itself has set a pretty good example for what's possible in the Bitcoin space. And kudos to Saylor for doing that. I mean, I know we only got a couple more minutes. Anything else that's on your radar that we may have missed that you're kind of excited about or looking for? As we come into 2025, we obviously have the regulatory shift, other wirehouses online, all these things for the ETF ETFs. But do you think we also now maybe see XRP or Solana or you know, meme, coin ETFs. I have no idea what's coming.
- [25:30]
Nate Garachi
That's exactly where I was going to go. I think that's, that's what I'm most keeping an eye on as we head into the New year. There are filings currently out there for Solana, Litecoin, hbar, xrp. There's also a couple of filings one's from Grayscale, one's from Bitwise for crypto index based ETFs. I think. Yeah, Scott. I think the hope is that the Trump administration in Congress, they come in, they move quickly to designate which crypto assets are securities and which are non securities. I think if that happens, then the path becomes much clearer towards these additional ETFs being approved now. You know, even then, even if we have say, a pro crypto SEC, they're not just going to rubber stamp these ETFs, in my opinion. They're still going to want comfortability that the underlying spot market isn't being manipulated. They're going to potentially want surveillance sharing agreements in place with exchanges like Coinbase. They're going to want all the proper disclosures. So I don't think the SEC is going to start rubber stamping everything. But I do think if we can get fairly quick clarity on which crypto assets are securities and which aren't, that's really going to help the prospects for Additional spot crypto ETFs come to market. I think as we sit here today, I'm pretty optimistic that we could see approval of say a Solana ETF by the end of 2025. I, I think that, I think that we can get there. We're not. And people say, well, we don't have futures. I talked about that earlier. The futures market is not required. That's just something that the, you know, current SEC wanted in place and that they leaned on. But that's not a requirement for spot ETFs to come to market. So I, that's really what I'm watching. I think it'll be fascinating to see what happens there. The grayscale and bitwise index based ETFs, they could take a little bit of a different path to market because the, they primarily hold Bitcoin and Ethereum, which obviously the SEC is comfortable owning in an ETF wrapper. I'm wondering if they're trying to. That other 10, they're trying to say this is like illiquid investments and they're using that to sort of end around getting these ETFs to market. So it'll be fascinating to watch. But yeah, I think it's really additional ETFs coming to market. That'll be, that'll be interesting.
- [27:44]
Scott Melker
2025 is going to be wild. Nate, thanks so much, man. It's a pleasure to finally have you. I'd love to have you again, everybody. You can follow him on X, of course. It's his name easy spelled right below and it's down in the description. Really a pleasure to have you. We will speak soon.
- [27:59]
Nate Garachi
Hey, thank you.
- [28:01]
Scott Melker
Awesome man. Thank you so much.
- [28:02]
Nate Garachi
Yep, take care.
- [28:04]
Scott Melker
All right guys, as you can see above, if you're looking at the thing Wolf of all streets, Times Aptos, I told you guys a week ago that I finally found A sponsor that was acceptable to me that I think is reputable enough to discuss with you on the show. You know, I've had mo shake on a million times. We talked on the street. Aptos sponsored all of my amazing content that we did in Singapore in person because somebody had to help us be able to do that. Well, they're officially our sponsor and you'll be talking about them a lot. I just pulled up as we were talking here. Some news. Huge here. The wait is over. Support for native USDT on Aptos is now live on Binance. Accelerate on chain with deposits and withdrawals now open so you can natively use tether on Aptos on finance. There's this crazy thread actually that I found here that Aptos had retweeted. It's about all the amazing things that happened for them in November. I can just give you the quick summary because the chain is booming and I really think is going to be one of the winners in the future. Significant growth in daily active accounts. November 2024. Slight 24 increase in average daily active accounts exceeding 740, 000. Monthly active accounts increase was 3% rise to 8.27 million and surge in new account creation. November recorded a peak of263,000 new accounts created in a single day with an average of 166,000 daily, totaling 4.97 million new accounts for the month. I think it's fair to say that Aptos is absolutely booming. I can't wait to get Avery and Mo on the show to discuss this as we've done many times before. Absolutely awesome. There's no affiliate link, no nothing you got to do here. I just want to point out how incredible they're doing and give them the shine that they deserve. Speaking of people who deserve shine, Christopher Inks of Texas West Capitol. What's up, man? How are you?
- [29:57]
Christopher Inks
What's going on, man? You enjoying the price action?
- [30:02]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I love it.
- [30:04]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, man. Bitcoin. Everybody kind of freaking out there. You know, we had that 11 point, 11% move down and back up. And then, I don't know, I see some people, you know, got all freaked out about this little candle right here and, you know, I guess quick movement in a short amount of time. I don't know. You know, I'm at this point where, you know, we're at 100,000. You know, nothing's really happening here that hasn't happened before the entire life cycle of bitcoin, right? So we get these shakeouts and we get these quick moves. Over a little bit of a percentage movement. But at the end of the day, it's really not, you know, a big move now. Yeah, it's going to be a bigger dollar move now. You know, you may be going to see bigger liquidations because, you know, we're talking about higher numbers here. But at the end of the day, it's the same old, same old. Rinse and repeat.
- [30:58]
Scott Melker
Yeah, absolutely. So that's. I mean, it's like, I joke, but it's like, how could you be panicking when Bitcoin's like, 94? Okay, now we're at 98. 8. We're almost back to 99. But like, 94,000. The bull market's over, like, zoom out two months, man.
- [31:14]
Christopher Inks
Well, it was just recently.
- [31:16]
Scott Melker
Wet dream. It's like those memes where it's like 94,000 on the way up, and it's like a picture of, like this gigachad, like Arnold Schwarzenegger, and that's like 94,000 on the way down. And it's Smeagol from Lord of the Rings. It's like the same price a month later.
- [31:28]
Christopher Inks
Man, I really thought you would go with the Peewee Herman on that, but, you know, Herman. Yeah, you know, I'm just saying, man. But yeah, no, you know, again, we're just kind of a little bit sideways here around that hundred thousand area. There's absolutely nothing going on. That. That tells me, oh, my God, we've got to be freaked out. It's the end of the world kind of thing. You know, this is the daily. You can see this stochastic RSI down here is resetting back into oversold. RSI remains bullish above neutral, curled up, threatening to cross bullishly. You know, let me remind people one more time, guys. Listen, when. When your rsi, for instance, goes into overbought, it doesn't mean, oh, my God, I need to sell. What it means is you've got a strong bullish trend, and it will pull back down out of that at some point, but it can stay overbought for a while. Same thing with oversold. But, you know, when you're using something like. Like the RSI there, and you're sitting above neutral in that. In that bullish area, and you're curled up and you're threatening to cross above the sma. I mean, that's all bullishness setting up there. What I love about the chart here on the days are these two candles right here. So you had the. The drop here that freaked everybody out with that big spike of Volume and then you had an even, you know, even larger volume the next day and much smaller candle, tiny little candle spread body there. I mean that's telling you that demand is there and demand is finding the support the same area here all the way across as the same resistance previously. So I mean, you know, it's hard to imagine price does anything else but go higher. And if it does, well, hey, based on the height here of this overall kind of thing, because I've got this as a wxy, I've got three waves down, three waves up. And if you zoom in here, you can kind of see three waves back down. So it just gives us a specific type of correction here. So the height of this gives us a pattern target of 113, 237. And if this is actually a 1 and a 2, which it appears to be, then 5 waves up get us minimum up here at 115, 965 just based off this local area here. So again, you know, is that the end of the thing? No, I don't think so. I don't believe so. I think we've still got, you know, as I've talked about here, quite a bit further to go. But locally here those are the next kind of target areas I'm looking at. So perfect. Feeling pretty good about that as far as alts go. You know, again we had that drop and also dropped as well and everybody freaked out. But they're looking pretty decent. We're getting kind of the same, you know, count aside, we're getting the same kind of three wave move down into again the daily pivot and that's looking pretty good. So we've got this accumulation range here. We've got the breakout. We get this, you know, jump across the creek, this back up the edge of the creek, what we call it in Wyckoff. And so looking for this to rally on up here. And as a one and a two that gives us a minimum three up here at 0.06478. So that's up there around was that two, two and a quarter. So 225% rally out there from where we're at. Pretty good move. You can see that again RSI remaining above neutral here. The bullish side of neutral, stochastic RSI resetting and oversold. I mean it's, it's, it's just about the perfect setup. So we want to see this hold of support and rally up and starts looking good. That's GST MSOL USD here. Same kind of idea, but this one's got, you know, an abc and then an abc. So it's wxy correction here.
- [35:06]
Scott Melker
Looks pretty bull flaggy.
- [35:08]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, exactly. You know, pulls right back to the daily pivot support here. So, yeah, I mean, I'm looking for a breakout above 306.76 to give us a pattern target. Again, based on the height here up there, around 381.79. But this is. This is just a pretty pullback right here. Like you said, looks like a bull flag here. So break it out. We should be good to go render. Remember, for a while, their render was all the talk. It was all the talk of the town. I believe we're in a wave three here, which has a minimum target of $13 and about 2 cents. But based on the height of this pull back here, that'll actually get us extended a little bit higher up here toward 15 or toward 15.15. So, you know, again, three waves down, finding support right around the daily pivot. You know, 13 would be the first target that I'd look closer to about 15.15 on there. But really, you know, looks good. We had again, more accumulation here. We just got the breakout. We got a pullback. You shouldn't be looking for it to head down lower. Most likely, that's going to continue up and higher, higher and higher there. GH G H S T. G h S T. Here we go again. Say, see, this is what I see. We talk about this all the time. You know, when the alts make a good move, they tend to do it lockstep and you get a lot of setups together. So here we are, three waves down into that daily pivot. Again, RSI remains bullish above neutral. Stochastic RSI resetting and oversold again, looking at this as a one and a two and a three. So three is $1.91 based on the height of this pullback. Let me see here. It actually gets us a $99 but $2. So, yeah, I'd be looking up at a $91 to $2 as a minimum target area for this rally here to take us to. And currently we're sitting about A$25, so. Decent little rally there, Cody doing its thing again.
- [37:14]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I like this.
- [37:16]
Christopher Inks
You know, again, three wave pullback, daily pivot, bullish above neutral, resetting in, you know, into oversold. I mean, did you see it play out over and over and over again? But looking on here, We've got a wave three up here. Minimum expected at around 27 cents. If you just want to Work with this pullback right here. I think it'll get you pretty close to that 25 and a half cents. So yeah, I would be looking up there toward that 27 cent area is kind of the next minimum target on the move up here.
- [37:49]
Scott Melker
And that aligns, by the way with. I mean I had that chart literally just pulled up randomly as well. Let me see if aligns like 27, 8 is literally the top of this entire consolidation up here. That's 0.27888. So aligns exactly with what you're saying.
- [38:04]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, yeah, you know, it did the sets, you know, the setups are here again, another great accumulation range here. We got the breakout, we got the back up the edge of the creek. This is again three wave pullback down here, right around the pivot. Everything again, just replay everything over and over here. I've got a target of $35.20. This is LPT USD. But that's not the final target. That's just the next target on the way. So yeah, that's what I'm doing with these here. And of course we've got GLM USD here. Absolutely beautiful. Three wave pullback. This one of course not on the daily pivot here, but at the previous range resistance as support dipped just below here on the rsi, but curled back up, getting ready to break back out. Bullet on the bullish side of neutral. There's stochastic rsi oversold, down and oversold. Oversold down and oversold. Yeah. Anyway, looking for this here, you know, just based on the height here again of this pullback, you'd be looking up here at about 96 cents as that next target. This actually looks like it might be closer to a one and a two though. And so if that's a one and a two here and you get that, you know, here we are over 50 pullback. So that looks good. You'd be looking up at three.
- [39:28]
Scott Melker
Up.
- [39:28]
Christopher Inks
Here, around two dollars and thirteen and a half cents minimum expected. Again based on the idea this is like a leading diagonal here, five up and then three back is two there. So you know, your viewers here, they can jump on there and they can look at the alts and they, you know, if they're seeing that same kind of three wave pull back into that daily pivot. And by the way, guys, if you don't know if you where my pivots are, just jump up here to indicators and type in pivot and use the standard pivots. That's all I've got on here. And you can put it on your own training view chart and then you just go out to the daily. And I've just got mine colored blue but it'll probably think it comes out as black default. But just look for that three, you know, a down, up, down toward that daily pivot and you know, you're looking for probably a good rally coming up off that. So yeah, that's just some of them there.
- [40:17]
Scott Melker
So beautiful. So I think generally you're not scared to trade alts right now?
- [40:23]
Christopher Inks
No, no, no, not at all, not at all. You know, the time to be scared was prior to the summer. And then I've been on here with you and we've been talking about how alts were setting up and bottoming in and you know, it's just kind of proven it out here. A lot of people get, you know, a lot of people, you know, if you don't know what you're doing in the market, you're going to get scared if things don't happen right away. Right. I mean, I remember when I first started trading, if it didn't move like if I wanted to go long in something, of course crypto wasn't there, but it was stocks back then. But if I wanted and it didn't go long like right away or it started pulling back first I would freak out. Right. And get all scared because I didn't know what I was doing. But now, you know, after kind of do your time for 30 years and you get in there, you start understanding that patience is a big part of it. And yeah, you know, it's, it's. The setup's been there since the summer starting in. And here we go. Right about the time everybody started to give up.
- [41:17]
Scott Melker
Isn't that always how it works? And it's all perfectly on schedule. I think we're gonna have a great 2025. Personally.
- [41:23]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, I can't see it set up as terribly right now, if not at all.
- [41:27]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Unless something unexpected happens. All right, guys, you can follow TX West Capital. Of course. I think like I said, Chris is the best. Where was it? Chris is the best. Join TMC to get this alpha every day. Where can people join?
- [41:39]
Christopher Inks
They just, you know what we've got all set up now back attexaswest capital.com. they can jump in there $97 a month, get you all our group coaching, gets you FIBO's threshold theory proprietary system. You'll learn that and it gets you TWC Traders Club where, you know, myself and Fibo and Vince and Andrew kind of put us our trades in our market analysis throughout the day, so you don't miss much. Anything in there? We do stocks and crypto with that, man.
- [42:05]
Scott Melker
I wish I had time.
- [42:08]
Christopher Inks
You had time for a while back.
- [42:10]
Scott Melker
Man, before you got good old days, man. Absolutely. Awesome. All right, guys, give Chris a follow. That's all we got. I'll be back tomorrow, of course, at 9:00am Eastern Standard Time. Thanks, Chris.
- [42:19]
Christopher Inks
Take care, everyone.