← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Is Bitcoin About To Skyrocket? The Parabolic Move Everyone Is Waiting For!
00:40:45
Is Bitcoin About To Skyrocket? The Parabolic Move Everyone Is Waiting For!
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
I am Mark safe from the great bitcoin bear market of two and three days ago. I don't know about you guys, but it feels good to have survived and to see price back at 100,000 because obviously we all thought that if we broke below 100,000, we were going straight to zero. In all Seriousness, guys, Bitcoin $100,000 doesn't seem like there's much to complain about at the moment. But now that we are at 100 and consolidating, when does the next big move come? What does it look like and what will it mean, obviously for the rest of the market? And more importantly, what kind of news and fundamentals could potentially drive this serious price action? I've got Alex Miller here today to discuss and Dan from Chart guys to give us some technical analysis on the back end. Let's go.
- [00:46]
Dan
Let's dope.
- [01:00]
Scott Melker
Let's dope is up everybody. I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Going to bring you on, Alex. Right now. It's light here, it's dark there. You are in another part of the country than me.
- [01:16]
Alex Miller
I would say far north and far west.
- [01:18]
Scott Melker
Yes, far north and far west of me. It's funny, you and I were chatting before the stream and I'm getting like pings from my producer. Hey dude, want to start the show? Want to go ahead and start the show? But that's what happens when you become friends with people. You start shooting the shit and you don't realize that you actually have a show to put on. But here we are, $100,000 Bitcoin, 100,811, 95 at this exact moment. Honestly, we did a Twitter Spaces two days ago and there was very bearish sentiment. Bitcoin was at about 95,000, 96,000. And it just blows my mind that we're so deep into looking this on a daily basis that those prices could make people upset.
- [02:02]
Alex Miller
I have never seen a group of people with like shorter term memory than the crypto world. It is like the hedonic adjustment around price in crypto is. It's, it's just wild, man. Like it'll jump 10% or 20% a day or go down 20%. And people just immediately within 24 hours are like, yeah, this is just where it's always been. So if it moves from here, that's insane.
- [02:25]
Scott Melker
Yeah. And I think that maybe people were so upset because altcoins actually did get disproportionately destroyed on that sort of move down. But that's what happens in bitcoin bull markets. Bitcoin goes down 10% and your altcoins go down 30%.
- [02:39]
Alex Miller
So what do you ascribe the move to?
- [02:42]
Scott Melker
I just ascribe it to leverage. I mean, you take a look at the amount of open interest and leverage that was flushed, and I think you just get to these levels and there's someone out there who's like, I can make a hell of a lot of money right now by pushing this market around a bit. Liquidate longs, liquidate shorts. Anyone who's leveraged on altcoins is literally an insane person anyways. So that's free money and just make a whole bunch of money and reset. I mean, that's my theory generally in these situations. I mean, some people tried to point to fundamental reasons. Quantum computing.
- [03:12]
Dan
Willow.
- [03:13]
Scott Melker
But come on, man.
- [03:15]
Alex Miller
I mean, I don't think that helped. I will say I read a really good thread breaking this down and I retweeted it.
- [03:20]
Dan
Go.
- [03:20]
Alex Miller
Follow me. Um, she recruited it, but they. They were basically doing a breakdown of the Google announcement and why. It's almost certainly just Google pulling the, like, oh, crap. Everyone thinks we're way behind in AI, so we're going to super overplay this announcement. And it's just a whole PR run that they didn't actually do anything particularly interesting or capable, which is 100% a Google move these days. So for anyone who is worried about quantum, I think it's probably fake. And B, also, if we get to the point of quantum computing cracking the encryption and making bitcoin worthless, man, your entire Internet history is getting leaked. There's so many other things that are going to break and implode your life.
- [04:04]
Scott Melker
They can launch our nukes.
- [04:07]
Alex Miller
No, no, because I'm just saying, like.
- [04:10]
Scott Melker
I'm just saying, you know, I feel like if we've got quantum computers that can hack the bitcoin network, then they can just hack the NSA and hack the Department of Defense and hack literally everybody else on the planet.
- [04:23]
Alex Miller
Well, so you can feel, again, a little bit safer there. War Games is not a documentary on this one. But also, like, you know, literally the nuke system still runs on, like, floppy disks for this reason. Right? Like, inside a nuke silo. It's literally, like, magnetic floppy disks that are used to transfer information because there's just no connection to anything. So it's completely unhackable.
- [04:47]
Scott Melker
So wasn't the computer in War Games named Joshua?
- [04:50]
Alex Miller
Sorry, I don't know, man, I'm not that old. I don't remember.
- [04:53]
Scott Melker
Do you remember the movie Matthew Broderick.
- [04:55]
Alex Miller
War Games, if any general existence of it? I don't really remember the details.
- [04:59]
Scott Melker
Joshua. Yeah, that was it. Would you like to play a game? Yes, I remember that movie quite well. So let's talk about reasons that we shouldn't be necessarily looking for bitcoin to go directly to zero in this cycle. Yeah, we've got quite a few. I would say that this is one of them. Blackrock and Fidelity. Well, this is actually eth. So let's jump to Bitcoin then we'll go back us spot. Bitcoin ETF surpassed 500,000 Bitcoin in cumulative net inflows. This is cumulative net inflows. They are holding over 1.1 million bitcoin now, which is, last time I checked, more than the Satoshi wallet. So I think that there's quite a bit of interest in this little bitcoin thing.
- [05:39]
Alex Miller
Yep.
- [05:40]
Dan
Yeah.
- [05:40]
Alex Miller
Satoshi's cumulative wallets are like 1 million at least that we know about. Personally, if I were satoshi, I would have put a whole bunch of unattributable to that I got. But, you know, I don't think those are moving. Yeah. So that's like one point what you're satoshi. If you heard it here first. People, please say, don't come. Don't come visiting my house. I don't have a million bitcoin. I wish I. Yeah, I mean, when we were on crypto Town hall a couple weeks ago, I was talking about this and like my view on this is just the longer that we can maintain stability and relative consistency, because consistency is relative in crypto around the price and around the duration on it. The more that more retail is going to come back in and the more that people are going to be into it and want to adopt. And I think that's just what we're seeing every day. You are seeing news stories about what's going on. Those are percolating into the normal retail channels and news and you're just having another couple of boomers each day give up and be like, crap, I really do need to go buy some of this. And they log into their fidelity account and they hit buy on one of the ETFs. And a few more people have adopted.
- [06:51]
Scott Melker
Yeah. And so we're speaking of a few more people adopting Vancouver City council green lights, exploring bitcoin and municipal finance. Now, we've seen this movie before, obviously, right. Miami became bitcoin capital of the world for that brief moment at the peak of last cycle. And we're allowing people to pay attention taxes and adding it to the treasury and the mayor Suarez to his credit was taking salary in bitcoin. Eric Adams tried to capitalize on that in New York and take his salary in bitcoin, but we all know that he's a larp.
- [07:22]
Alex Miller
But salary in Turkish Airlines, Miles.
- [07:27]
Scott Melker
But now looking at this, is this big news in your mind? I think that's always exciting when we see news like this.
- [07:34]
Alex Miller
But yeah, I'd say, I mean, I think I'm a big believer on this kind of thing and you know, lines, not dots, if you've ever heard of that one. I think this particular data point, I think any of these individual data points is pretty meaningless and often get way over hyped. But there's no doubt that overall, if you take it as the match, you're definitely seeing just this slow trend up into the right of folks feeling like they need to adopt it or that they need to at least be considering it. So you know, Vancouver doing it, man, I have no idea. This is the first time hearing of this particular one. So I have no, no idea how serious they are about that. And like, you know, we've seen some. There was the Microsoft board, not board resolution, but shareholder resolution that failed with only. You see that 0.55% of shareholders voting for it. Which I will admit I didn't think it was going to pass. I didn't think it was going to be 0.55%. But again, I think when you compare the importance of that compared to the level of inflows to the ETFs and adoption across the board there, that's just where I go back to that. Lines, not dots things.
- [08:40]
Scott Melker
Guys, I would like to reiterate the point that he just made. We talked about Microsoft potentially adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet. Not even 1% of the vote. Okay, so we're early, right?
- [08:53]
Alex Miller
I mean we've been early for a long time. We will continue to be early for a long time.
- [08:58]
Scott Melker
I mean Amazon now apparently has activist investors that are trying to convince Amazon to add Bitcoin to the balance sheet. I don't see it happening in this case. I love that it's even out there, But I mean 0.5% is not exactly a super majority.
- [09:14]
Alex Miller
No, 0.55, don't undersell it.
- [09:16]
Scott Melker
That's higher than you bips there that I might have missed on that. But fair to say that I don't think Right now that gives us any indication that we're going to see one of these major corporations add bitcoin to the balance. She if it's up to shareholders. Right. MicroStrategy was always different because it's up to Michael Saylor.
- [09:35]
Alex Miller
Yeah, I was gonna say, I mean bitcoin on the balance sheet, whether you're talking about at a government level, at a company level, whatever it is, is still a kind of fundamentally, you could call it religious or very much advocacy thing that's going on. It's only going to happen if you have someone who's very influential and very in control, who truly believes this is like the right thing to do and the way they want to go with it. I think for most companies it is actually given that the relative volatileness of it, how much they'd be willing to put into it, relative to it, like it's not actually going to make the move on their finances. Unless you are a pivoting your company 100% into it like Saylor did. Or again, it's just kind of like a fundamental long term religious belief for you on it moving. Moving a couple percent of your corporate treasury into Bitcoin isn't going to make a difference on anything in the long run for your company. So it just doesn't make sense for most people to really be putting that much brain space onto it.
- [10:33]
Scott Melker
I wonder if that's one of the things that we will see this cycle though. I mean we've obviously seen. Was it Microplanet? What's the one in Japan? Yeah, something Metaplanet, Metaplanet, microstrategy. There have been reports of a lot of smaller companies actually sort of adding or buying bitcoin that have gone unnoticed. A million here, 2 million there.
- [10:53]
Alex Miller
Well, yeah, and I think you will consider, you will continue to see especially like micro cap and small and floundering companies. Do I mean you remember this like in the. Well, Both in the 17 and 21 cycles, right. Everyone added like the word blockchain to their thing or like, you know, all of these companies desperately added like blockchain to what they were doing in an attempt to get a spike. I would say anyone who is making a lot of noise about adding bitcoin right now is kind of doing the same thing. This is one of the things that I thought was funny about a lot of the discussion around Microsoft doing. When people were like, they have to do this, they're going like, Microsoft is a $3.4 trillion company that is, you know, has a. Not a majority, but A plurality of like compute share right now in the cloud market that they're not worried about being behind the times on here. Like, they have plenty going for them. They're not going away tomorrow because of anything. Anyone making a lot of noise about adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet is really just trying to juice the stock price right now. Anyone who is adding it quietly probably actually believes in it.
- [11:58]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I agree with all of that. So just digging into some of the other news we have here, we can talk about, I think Trump's cabinet picks, which I think are indisputably bullish, I guess, for the industry and better than anticipated. Interestingly, we also. We have Paul Atkins here for sec. I love that he openly said in the past that he blamed the United States for FTX crypto disaster. Because that's one of the most like, crypto echo chamber narratives is to like make the jump to say because the SEC did not allow crypto in the United States and because they didn't regulate it, it all went offshore and turned into a scam. But that's what our new SEC chair.
- [12:37]
Alex Miller
Yeah.
- [12:37]
Scott Melker
Literally said. I mean, this guy hates. But this is in the past too. He didn't just say this. This was at the time.
- [12:43]
Alex Miller
Yeah. And this is also why Tether is like the biggest stablecoin out there, because we've made it very, very hard for things to operate here. And you know, folks wanted to be. They both want US dollars and they wanted to be outside the US Regulatory regime. And so Tether takes off, but our homegrown stuff doesn't. It's crazy.
- [13:01]
Scott Melker
Yeah. I mean, speaking of that, Stablecoin market cap hits 200 billion milestone could double in 2025 as adoption accelerates. This has definitely always been one of the areas where think we expect to see the most growth in crypto. But I mean, Tether is at like 140 billion, 130 or 140 billion now. I think Circle USDC is like a 25, 30% of the market cap to your point. I mean, Tether has just absolutely flown even without sort of approval in the United States. And now you have luck who's custodying Tether and is a partial owner as the Secretary of Commerce. So I think things might be rosier for Tether, but this continues to be the killer app outside of bitcoin, I would say.
- [13:38]
Alex Miller
I think that's the one thing everyone can agree is absolutely achieved product market fit in crypto is stable coins and like, it makes sense if you're in. Everybody wants access to U.S. dollars in the U.S. bank account. Right. I mean this is something you've seen for 50, 60 years basically ever since post World War II. So of course that's the thing that people wanted and wanted access to and you know, both for obviously there's a huge amount of it used on chain, huge amount of the flows around tether in particular, obviously the other side of like trading pairs on exchanges. But you also just have it being used in day to day life in various places. I've got, you know, as I run a crypto company, I've got people who are based all over the world for me and guess what, a bunch of them are in countries where their currencies are not the most stable. And you know the black market exchange rates are much better or gray market exchange rates are much better than the official exchange rates. And you know what they have all used to moving, moved to using for those kind of swaps and getting the real rates is stablecoins.
- [14:37]
Scott Melker
Yeah, 100%. And I think that those will continue to grow massively. But when stablecoin on bitcoin, I mean you're a bitcoin builder, let's talk about a, what you're building. But why we don't have just some massive stablecoin presence on Bitcoin instead of these other networks?
- [14:53]
Alex Miller
Well, because bitcoin's not programmable. It's almost like someone needs to be working on something that makes bitcoin programmable, maybe a network, a second layer that stacks on top of bitcoin. That would be a really, really great thing. Yeah, you're seeing a lot of people actually there are folks like Dukan things that are working on various forms of bitcoin backed stablecoins. At the end of the day I'm a little skeptical on a lot of those plays. I think a lot of people were obviously very burned by the algorithmic stablecoin thing and at the end of the day just want a look, I just want a bank account. I want to stick, I want to hand you some dollars or something. I want to be handed these stable coins. I want to know that they'll redeem one to one. I think people are going to keep trying to figure out ways to do various forms of the, of different backed stable coins and things. But I think at the end of the day the, you know, the, the bank account model is what most people are going to want and stick to. Which means it's going to be kind of chains like Tether and USDC that are going to be the biggest but you're already seeing them start to issue on natively on bitcoin layer twos. You've got more coming. I can't talk about exactly what we're planning on sex, but same thing is coming there. So yeah, I don't know that you're going to see like a bitcoin native stablecoin really take off, but you're absolutely going to see the bigger stablecoins issuing natively on bitcoin ecosystem, which is happening everywhere.
- [16:20]
Scott Melker
Like I saw Aptos obviously is a sponsor here. I saw that they now have native USDT Binance. I mean it's happening across all of these chain. Certainly in the Ethereum ecosystem, they're all coming pretty much to Solana. I mean Tron is like the most popular place for tether. Right. So it just seems like a natural fit that you would be Right.
- [16:39]
Alex Miller
Yeah.
- [16:39]
Scott Melker
Because you can eat $6.2 million bananas. But yeah, I mean it just seems surprising that we haven't been having a conversation about USDC or USDT on bitcoin.
- [16:51]
Alex Miller
Yeah, I mean, I think almost the reason is it's, you know, crypto always likes things that are like the crypto world likes things that are new and shiny, obviously. And I think going back to the idea of just how accepted stablecoins are at this point is. I think it's not even that it's priced in, it's just. It's obvious like everyone's already just accepted. Like yeah, of course these things are going to be huge. They're going to be absolutely everywhere. It's just built into the narrative at this. Not just the narrative, but everyone's assumptions about how product in the world is going to work.
- [17:20]
Scott Melker
Since I've got all these news stories, but we've got like 10 minutes left, let's just talk about what is being built on bitcoin. It's exciting what you guys are working on, what the timelines for those things are because I think that's just.
- [17:32]
Alex Miller
Yeah, absolutely.
- [17:32]
Scott Melker
So I mean, talking about ETF inflows and outflows at this point.
- [17:36]
Alex Miller
Yeah, but we can talk about those all the time. They can go all forever. I mean it's a very big kind of few months for us. So for context, for anyone who doesn't know, I run Hero Systems, which is DevTools company for Bitcoin in the Stacks ecosystem. Stacks is a layer two for bitcoin basically makes bitcoin programmable. So about a month ago we shipped the community, shipped the Nakamoto release which basically brought like 10 22nd block times to stacks instead of them being one to one with Bitcoin. The next thing is coming out next week is the initial release of sbtc. So SBTC is a programmable bitcoin asset. So obviously there's plenty. You know, everyone knows wbtc, they've seen cbtc. SBTC is a totally decentralized going to ultimately be an open membership network secured at the consensus level on stacks. Again the whole goal of the stacks project is to make bitcoin programmable and you're not, you can't do that on the bitcoin layer one there's cool research going into it but at this point it's just not not happening. Layer twos are where it's got to happen and SBTC is so SBTC is kind of our communities.
- [18:43]
Scott Melker
Sbf bcc. What?
- [18:45]
Alex Miller
Oh my God.
- [18:46]
Scott Melker
Oh God. All I needed was the F to make brutal.
- [18:50]
Alex Miller
Yeah, there you go. So like I said, it's a totally decentralized secured at the consensus level peg. So basically you can peg in. It's all held in a threshold wallet secured by a bunch of signers. And so we're going to be, it's going to be launching next week. There's going to be a whole incentive program around it for the first kind of thousand bitcoin that get into it.
- [19:10]
Scott Melker
Then it goes off to the layer two and what can you do with.
- [19:13]
Alex Miller
It then you can peg into, you can do everything with it any way you want to use it in defi in various applications on the layer two there's a whole ecosystem of builders all using hero tools building on top of stacks. You can go check out Valar Alex stacking Dao bitflow. There's all kinds of great defi. I think ultimately my view of how we're going to see the on chain crypto world evolve is obviously defi makes more sense on top of bitcoin than anything else, right? Bitcoin's the oldest asset. It is the digital gold. It is where the largest amount of asset value is. It just makes sense for that to exist there. I think you'll then see a lot of kind of the off chain applications built on the Alt L ones and stuff like Solana. One of the things I tell people right now is so I run a venture firm on the side with my wife and when we're getting pitched for the most part about companies that are non crypto companies but using crypto Rails, they're pretty much all building on Salana right now. Like it's just they've done the Best job marketing to devs getting it. They're doing a killer job pulling those off chain companies and I think it's, you know, they're also very focused obviously on transaction speed, low latency, high capacity. It's going to be really hard for something like Ethereum or Bitcoin at the native layers to compete with that for the kind of things that I think again these off chain companies are looking to build. So I think those are all going to get built there which is. But then you're going to see kind of the higher security, more native feeling things like bitcoin built on top of layer twos. Personally I think it's going to happen on stacks, that's why I work there. And you know you're also seeing like SBT as BTC then get adopted by these other ones. So Aptos has already said they're going to do it. It's coming to Solana. A number of the other kind of alt L ones as I call them, the non ethereum L ones I think we'll all end up building around using like stacks and SBTC as their bridge for pulling in the bitcoin asset value while getting like their native stable coins and doing all of the kind of native super fast build for the off chain companies there.
- [21:25]
Scott Melker
Yeah, you mentioned Valar, which is really, really cool and I've like barely invested in anything in the last like years and that was one of the few things like when I was introduced to them in February. It's really sweet you mentioned obviously. But yeah, it's basically like, I mean it's like uniswap on bitcoin. Right. So it's really awesome. For anybody who hasn't checked these things out, all these things that we are so popular on other chains have come to bitcoin. Right. It's just a matter of bringing the popularity. But you can do everything on there right now that you can do on the other chains.
- [21:59]
Alex Miller
Absolutely.
- [22:00]
Scott Melker
In these contexts for sure.
- [22:02]
Dan
Yeah.
- [22:02]
Alex Miller
And like I said, I think if you play it out a few years the growth there is just going to be so much higher because again it's where people want to be. I think with it you saw, with the release of ordinals, you've seen it with just the amount of excitement over the last year and a half since then. People want to come back to bitcoin. Like the sort of very insular core bitcoin community drove out a lot of people post 2017 and post block size wars. But there was always the demand to come back there. People Want to hold bitcoin, they want to be doing it natively there. And so, yeah, we've already seen a huge amount of growth in the stacks ecosystem, especially around Defi in the last six or 12 months. And I think 2025 just can be absolutely massive for it.
- [22:42]
Scott Melker
Yeah. I mean, you and Muneeb obviously, and Yago are like my favorite bitcoin builders and they have bitcoin os coming. And obviously they also pulled off ZK Roll up live on stage at Bitcoin Nashville. I mean, this stuff is seriously happening.
- [22:59]
Alex Miller
Yeah, it's like I said, it's really going. I think. I think the level of capacity you need right now is only going to happen on the L2s, but you fast forward this out five years maybe and I think there's probably true native.
- [23:11]
Scott Melker
You say five years instead of five months, though, because if this was happening like on Solana right now, and this is no hate to anything like we'd all be like, is going to be the biggest thing before the end of this cycle. I feel like the bitcoin builders are like genuine, or at least have been here long enough to be like, this stuff's going to take some time, guys.
- [23:29]
Alex Miller
Yeah. Also something I saw is built from the ground up for that. The whole point to bitcoin is that it is stable and we don't want to mess with the L1 too much because there's enough secured around it, there's enough locked into it. You don't want to mess with that too much. So it does require a little more technical research and development to figure out how to do things without risking a compromise on the core chain. And like, that is what we want. Jameson Lopp's done a lot of. A lot of good writing and debate on kind of the ossification argument around bitcoin. And personally, it's funny, right? I'm someone who wants to see everything built on top of bitcoin. Spend my entire days working there. I'm still pretty much for largely ossifying the L1, and it needs some upgrades, it needs some continuation. OPCAT or CTB would be great to have, but you got to be really careful with it. Bitcoin is never going to be fully programmable at the L1. It's never going to have the capacity or the latency for people to really want to operate onto it again. It's moving gold between bank vaults and that is fine. Once you have the gold in the various bank vaults and can move them smoothly, then you can build your financial layers and Your entire financial system on top of it. And that's what the L2s are doing.
- [24:42]
Scott Melker
So obviously most of these things will take time. But are there things that you think we'll start to see really early iterations of that we'll have a meaningful level of adoption on bitcoin? Let's say we have six to 12 months of bull market. I have no idea. But if we're just looking at four year cycles, let's say, and then we go back to building in a bear or something, any of the things you see that will really be aha moments or light bulbs on bitcoin during that period.
- [25:08]
Alex Miller
Yeah, I mean, like I said, I think the launch of sb, sbtc. Can't believe I keep watching that. SBTC is going to be huge. I think you're going to immediately see a ton pour into defi on top of stacks using that. And people actually getting to take their bitcoin, including everything from tiny retail traders with a couple hundred thousand sats all the way up to whales with a couple hundred thousand bitcoin, start deploying it into a lot of this bitcoin NATIVE DEFI plays Because again, it's just, it's what people want. There's an. There's an unbelievable demand for it.
- [25:43]
Scott Melker
Yeah, totally agree, Alex. Thank you so much, guys. As he very quietly under his breath said earlier, follow him, follow him on X tag. Right. Is it just. It's Alex Something Miller.
- [25:53]
Alex Miller
Right?
- [25:53]
Scott Melker
I mean, I know it's tech.
- [25:55]
Alex Miller
Yeah. Alex L. Miller. I, you know, I was a few months late to Twitter in 2008 and so Alex and Alex Miller were taken.
- [26:02]
Scott Melker
I was gonna say that would be sweet if you were just Alex. I was gonna say this.
- [26:04]
Alex Miller
Oh, I give, I wouldn't say I give Alex Wilhelm crap all the time for this, for taking the name, but. Oh, wow.
- [26:11]
Scott Melker
I guess you can't be as bitter if he just beat you to it.
- [26:14]
Alex Miller
Yeah. And he's a good guy too, so. So, yeah, thanks very much, sir. I'll see you.
- [26:18]
Scott Melker
Awesome, man. Always appreciate it. Thank you.
- [26:20]
Alex Miller
Bye.
- [26:21]
Scott Melker
And now to talk about is bitcoin about skyrocket, the parabolic move everyone is waiting for? I don't know if Dan actually thinks that might happen. We're going to find out. Dan, is this. It is today. We're going to 179.
- [26:35]
Dan
Not today. We're still tightening up on the daily range and that can continue through the weekend. But bulls are holding on just fine. That's, you know, we got these little higher lows and we're sticking around near 100,000. And it's a good sign that bitcoin held those lows. You know, this is, this is. We're essentially just trading within this. Remember that little volatility day we had? We bounced up lower high, higher low, testing resistance. So again, just watching these little higher lows that are keeping the bulls in control. And while that was happening, altcoins saw a more significant flush. And again, same deal. The weekly consolidation was inevitable. And the weekly consolidation we're seeing in the altcoins is still very healthy at this point. And you can see, you know, the people that are new to crypto being like, ah, 25, 30% down. How is this healthy consolidation? It's like, this is how it goes. This is, this is what the bull cycles do. And so, you know, there's no red flags. And essentially what we need to see from here into the end of the year, if we're going to say, yeah, it's all coin season, is the dominance chart needs to confirm this weekly downtrend. So we already fell off with a big drop, we know that much. But if we can do that lower high, lower low, we're going to be looking at the altcoins to confirm weekly bull flags into continuation. Some names have already done it, like link. The more names that do it, the more likely we're going to see other names join. So, you know, no red flags. Bulls are just fine. And volatility in bitcoin is going to pick up when this tightening range breaks. But again, can easily go through the weekend. We know things slow down and then we'll look to next week for a break.
- [28:08]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean, sitting here back at 101,000 after that retrace. Like I said two days ago, I was literally on spaces and everyone was like, well, we got to go to the 80s, maybe back to like 74, 75 to retest the previous all time high. When I spoke to Peter Brandt, he was like, dude, I don't think bitcoin's going back to 74. That's too obvious. He was like, it doesn't come back to test that previous all time high breakout unless it's in the next bear market. I mean, it could. And apparently there's a CME gap at like 78 or 79. That's concerning people. But those things don't really register in my analysis if we're, you know, if it really sets off and flies.
- [28:44]
Dan
Yeah, I mean, ideally, the next time we do see weekly consolidation on Bitcoin, it holds EMA 12 on the weekly to keep it nice and healthy. And again, that's what a bunch of alts did. You know, you look at Ripple, we're not even close to weekly EMA12 but even Seoul who started consolidation much sooner, that's, that's that level, you know, if we hold that, we're just fine. And so that's what bulls want to see. Seoul's got this nice daily channel to be keeping an eye on and again, just healthy, contained consolidation, taking a bit of a breather. But weekly higher low is the most likely scenario and looking for that to shape up into the end of the year. So again, you know, you should be prepared. Like what we're seeing in the altcoin space is a bunch of unprepared people, people just too bullish, too leveraged. If you're gonna get, you know, blown up from weekly consolidation after going straight up for five weeks, you're not playing this game correctly. Let me fix my settings here real quick. Microphone.
- [29:46]
Scott Melker
Yeah, it's no big deal, but it's a little equally. But I mean I can just share something. I'm looking at that. I just opened the CME chart when I saw that, which I haven't done. So yeah, there is this big gap right here. Kind of looks like it's 77,6 to like 80,000, something like that. And most of these gaps have gotten filled. They got these ones that people thought would never get filled on the way up in the last bull market got filled on the way down. But also important to remember that when we were at, you know, 15,000 here, people said we had to come down and fill the gap at 11 or the one at 9. And these never, ever, ever, ever got filled. So you know, bear with me. Yeah, and those never got filled. So it wouldn't surprise me at all to not see the 78,000. But I have said, I mean there is a fundamental level kind of at this 74 to 75,000 that was the previous all time high. Eventually we might see that retested. I just don't think that something that we need to see right now, you know.
- [30:45]
Dan
All right, I think I'm back.
- [30:46]
Scott Melker
Oh yeah, you sound good. Okay. So yeah, I see you got Solana chart pulled up. I was just talking about the CME gaps, but continue on.
- [30:53]
Dan
Honestly, I don't use those gaps. It's worth paying attention to. I'm not going to say they're not useful, but just personally I don't use them. It doesn't impact my analysis in any way. You know, if we were pulling back and a gap is near. Oftentimes that can act as a target, but overall it's just the price action. Just keep it simple and the price levels form in those higher lows is all we care about as far as bigger picture trend. Let's go to ETH here just because you know, this resistance zone is very clear, you know, just under 4,000 to 4,100 and we're just battling it again right now. And you know, the bulls are liking the fact that worst case we just reject here and we keep tightening up same as what's possible for bitcoin through the weekend. But obviously this is a very clear resistance zone and we've been looking at this ETH BTC chart for a long time, you and I, and the downtrend resistance line that we've been watching is nowhere near in play. But it's a battle here if ETH is going to make a run towards its all time high. We've just got to see continued progress on this chart and we've got to get over this little double top and we just have to start seeing these longer term shifts which we're seeing in the dominance chart and we need to see it take place on ETH BTC as well.
- [32:14]
Scott Melker
You want to see something pretty crazy? I decided today to use ChatGPT to see if it could do technical analysis, which I've never tried, ever. And I just posted a weekly chart of Ethereum naked, except for it had two mas, which I didn't tell it what they were. And it identified them as the 50 and the 200. It says right here, Resistance level 4000 to 4100. I didn't draw lines on this chart. I gave no context, I didn't give an opinion. It's pretty incredible.
- [32:43]
Dan
I'm now obsolete.
- [32:45]
Scott Melker
I gotta say that we're being obsolete. I mean, you know, it's giving pretty obvious supports, like 50 Ma, 200 Ma, but the fact that identified them and has the resistance at 4,000 to 4,100 as the key resistance, as you just said, which made me think of this pretty incredible.
- [32:59]
Dan
I mean, it can be a tool, use it for sure. When I was starting learning technical analysis, I had a mentor and my process was pretending I was him. And what would he say looking at this chart and I would type up, this is what he would say. And if you don't have a mentor, hold the AI's hand and let it be your mentor and see the things that it is seeing.
- [33:21]
Scott Melker
You got to check on it, right? So you got to make sure. I'm saying, I think you need a basic level of knowledge. I wouldn't just Type something into ChatGPT and then start trading on it. Like, I'll tell you this. Like, when I, I tried it with, I did have some lines drawn. And for example, it would say set a stop loss at or at at. And it would say on that support line, just because that line was drawn, as opposed to saying like, hey, maybe 4% below that line. Right. You know what I mean?
- [33:48]
Dan
So, yeah, you need to wiggle.
- [33:49]
Scott Melker
You don't, you don't want to put your stop loss on support. That's exactly how you get crushed every single time, things like that. But I mean, the basic analysis, if it. You're not asking it, how to trade it, it's pretty solid.
- [33:59]
Dan
Yeah, you need that human touch for the little nuances for sure. That you get through experience. But actually, I just had a thought. You know, one way it would be useful is you've got your thesis, you know, you're long or whatever. Have it spit out the counter argument.
- [34:12]
Scott Melker
What.
- [34:13]
Dan
What am I missing? What's bearish about this chart? If I'm all bull, like, show me what could pot. What I could be possibly overlooking. That would be a good way to.
- [34:21]
Scott Melker
Utilize having a friend to look at the chart with you through another set of eyes, basically.
- [34:25]
Dan
Exactly.
- [34:26]
Scott Melker
But I was just really impressed that I was like, I didn't even know if it could do it because I tried it maybe six months ago or something and it was like, you know, nothing, you know, or like complete nonsense. And now it, I mean, I just was blown away when it was like, yeah, that's the 50 ma, that's the 200.
- [34:41]
Alex Miller
Okay, cool.
- [34:42]
Dan
That's impressive.
- [34:43]
Scott Melker
Yeah. And that's not on the chart. Like, you can see the lines, but you can't see maybe actually up in the top left corner, it shows which indicators are up. So maybe that's how it found it. So, yeah.
- [34:54]
Dan
Just one more note on altcoins. If, if we're going to stay in full bull control mode, you want to hold the lows that we just hit. You know, here's op, whatever, whatever name you're looking at, hold those lows. And it's again, entirely possible. You know, this is a great bounce, just using OP as an example, but could easily tighten up for a bit. Just, you know, it's the kind of thing. Actually, let's go over a little lesson here. I traded XRP and I got stopped out. And this is an example of aggressive versus Conservative. So I'm now in a conservative point in my career where my number one priority is not giving back profit. Whereas back when I was aggressive, 2017 and onward, I was, you know, number one goal is increase my account. And so I played this XRP flush and I got filled low $2 on the initial flush and ended up selling nope initial flush, selling a third two twenties. Stuck myself down at break even with fees. And they got me, you know, right on the wick. And so that was me positioning for, I don't want to lose anything here. You know, I want to be risk free and let it try and play out. And whereas if I were being aggressive, I'm looking to have a solid win on this trade, I would be willing to risk red. And, you know, risk and reward are directly related in that sense. You have to be willing to risk a significant amount of capital sometimes if you want the reward of a significant amount of capital. And so this is my reminder of take a little risk. You can have a little red. It's okay.
- [36:22]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at some of these. I didn't actually trade it, but like, I think one of them that I had drawn, I don't even know. I know if I have it now. But like, coachy, here's an example exactly what you're talking about. Because I think this is, this is why when I was on with Alex before, he's like, what do you think happened? I was like, I think they were just flushing everyone because, you know, this, my, this was the idea. Right. So you would have had your stop, like right here and the wicks take out all the stops. But the idea is. Right, you know, like, and so it's, it's the same thing. It's just, how much were you willing to lose? Well, if you were entering at 15 cents, you certainly didn't want to be necessarily in at 12 cents if you're trying not to lose anything. Right. But quickly back on the same day to up just as much as you would have lost. So it's, you know, trading is really, really hard, especially in crypto, especially if you're trying to use leverage and not get liquidated.
- [37:12]
Dan
Yeah, a bunch of names gave nice double bottoms eth Ada. But a bunch of other names did get that little lower low with no follow through. And so it's, it's definitely that, that goes back to what we were talking about in terms of wiggle room. You definitely want to give some wiggle room. I didn't give enough. And that's just a Little reminder to myself, you know, as long as you're still in a bull market and there's no major red flags, give a little bit more wiggle room. And even if that means just sizing down position a little bit, you know, if I don't want to risk 3, 3% or whatever on this position size, well If I take 3/4 of the position size and risk 5% it's comparable. So always, you know, you can adjust your position size with the amount of risk you're willing to take. One more thing outside of crypto and unfortunately we've missed the top but quantum computing stocks, this is just, you know, we're in the euphoria part of the cycle where it's throw everything at the wall and you know, these are penny stocks with valuations that don't make sense right now but just loving the volatility in both directions. This is rgti there's so many of them that have just run you know, 4,500% over the last six weeks. And so RGTI Q U B T Q B T s great volatility for day trading. But I, I do believe that we're going to see a euphoria top into weekly consolidation here over the next couple of weeks but in the meantime trading back and forth. So if you're looking for volatility for day trading in the stock world, check out quantum stocks.
- [38:41]
Scott Melker
Awesome. I'm going to keep you for two more seconds. Just. Well I can let you go but I just, I saw that they were talking about Sui in the chat and I know that Valerie was specifically talking about and saying she was up 4 or 5x. I just kind of saw it. I can't remember exactly how much was but doesn't know how to figure out her exits. Just want to show that at this moment maybe because you didn't think about your exits, you did exceptionally well. Right. But it's actually making a new all time high today. So I mean if it with all this volume that's come in since the bottom, I mean crazy, crazy interest I, this was the trade I had originally shared was this bull flag. It obviously hit that target but she was looking at trading alpha, this indicator. I mean it's nothing but I mean there's no reason I don't think to I maybe take some off the top because you've hit a new all time high. But I don't, I don't think this is a position where the chart says to exit entirely.
- [39:30]
Dan
Yeah, I mean if you've got life changing gains or significant gains that would have an impact on your life, you take some off. That's a standard rule of thumb. But, you know, we just established a solid base of support in the lower three dollar range that held on the altcoin flush that we just saw. So it is still holding on just fine. And you know, my style is take a bit of profit into strength and then just walk up a stop with. With bases of support for a bigger chunk of the position if you want to let it run.
- [39:59]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I wouldn't want to be in this. Basically below three bucks, as you said. What's this, Wick? 299, 298, you know, and below there, you're starting to lose some key support and probably heading back down to two bucks or something. But if you just kind of walk it up as this goes, but if this closes as a new high, you.
- [40:14]
Dan
Know, you can see it's definitely a lead bowl.
- [40:16]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Yeah, this has been a winner.
- [40:18]
Alex Miller
And you're.
- [40:18]
Scott Melker
You're probably doing pretty good there. All right, Dan, thank you so much, everybody. Follow chart, guys. Of course. Check out his channels, everything that he's doing. We'll see you next Thursday, man.
- [40:27]
Dan
All right, have a good one. Thanks, Scott.
- [40:28]
Scott Melker
All right, thanks, everyone. Bye. Let's do.