The Wolf Of All Streets: Is Bitcoin Set To Explode? Crypto Volatility Is Going Up | Macro Monday

Release Date: March 24, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, James

1. Introduction and Bitcoin's Current Status

The episode kicks off with Scott Melker highlighting Bitcoin's recent resurgence, noting its trading above $87,000. The host sets the stage for a deep dive into Bitcoin's performance, crypto volatility, and macroeconomic factors influencing the market.

Scott Melker [00:01]: "Bitcoin is showing signs of life trading back above $87,000 on this beautiful macro Monday. All coins also looking a bit jumpy."

2. Copper Prices and Potential Tariffs

Mike McGlone and Dave Weisberger delve into the unexpected spike in copper prices, reaching near all-time highs, and its implications for markets.

Dave Weisberger [01:30]: "It's more likely to be transitory... Copper is going up for the wrong reasons."

They discuss the disparity between US traded copper and London traded copper, attributing the rise to fears of tariffs amid no substantial tariffs being imposed. Dave emphasizes that the surge is unsustainable and suggests that the market is beginning to squeeze out speculative shorts.

Dave Weisberger [02:15]: "Pump up the price of copper by 30% for artificial reasons will probably be pushed back a little bit, at least initially."

Mike questions the correlation between copper prices and Bitcoin, referencing a Coindesk report suggesting that copper's rise weakens its role as a leading indicator for risk assets.

Scott Melker [04:02]: "Copper's rise is likely led by Trump's tariffs, weakening its appeal as a leading indicator for risk assets."

3. Bitcoin as a Leading Indicator

The conversation shifts to Bitcoin's role as a barometer for risk assets. James offers a nuanced view, suggesting that Bitcoin's performance is intertwined with broader market liquidity and Fed policies.

James [05:55]: "Markets have been mean reverting back to the amount of liquidity that's out there."

Dave counters by asserting Bitcoin is still a leading indicator, advocating for its long-term bullishness despite short-term volatility.

Dave Weisberger [09:58]: "Bitcoin is leveraged beta. It's a leveraged stock market and it's performing like that."

4. ETF Flows: Bitcoin vs Gold

Dave Weisberger brings up the comparison between Bitcoin ETFs and Gold ETFs, noting that Bitcoin ETFs have reached parity on a risk-adjusted basis. He points out that institutional holdings in Bitcoin ETFs are declining, whereas Gold ETFs are on the rise.

Dave Weisberger [28:10]: "Total institutional holdings of Gold ETFs are going up. Bitcoin ETFs are going down."

Scott Melker adds that there have been recent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, albeit not recapturing previous highs, indicating a mixed sentiment.

Scott Melker [20:51]: "Net inflows this week into Bitcoin ETFs... it's fair to say they're going down."

5. Institutional vs Retail Influence

The discussion highlights the difference between institutional and retail investors in the crypto space. Dave emphasizes that institutions are passive buyers, accumulating Bitcoin without chasing prices, contrasting with retail investors who tend to react impulsively to market movements.

Dave Weisberger [13:45]: "Institutions are passive buyers and retail are the ones that are running with their chickens with their heads cut off."

Mike counters by arguing that institutional strategies, such as those employed by Arch Public, effectively manage their positions without overexposing to volatility.

Mike McGlone [28:19]: "When you have arbitrage that people think is an infinite money machine, it goes away."

6. Macroeconomic Environment and Fed Policies

James and Mike discuss the broader macroeconomic landscape, focusing on the Federal Reserve's policies. They debate whether the Fed has ended Quantitative Tightening (QT) and is transitioning to Quantitative Easing (QE), and how this shift impacts liquidity and risk assets.

James [15:51]: "The Fed does have to hit the buy button. But they're getting cash back to do that."

Mike McGlone [17:00]: "Yeah, they are continuing the QE."

They also touch upon the looming $36 trillion deficit and the challenges it poses for sustainable economic growth without further monetary expansion.

7. Bitcoin's Position Among Cryptocurrencies

A significant portion of the debate centers around Bitcoin's unique position in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Dave contends that Bitcoin faces endless competition from thousands of altcoins, diluting its market dominance.

Dave Weisberger [50:36]: "There are 13 million similar types [of cryptocurrencies]."

James defends Bitcoin, arguing that its foundational position and increasing adoption set it apart from other cryptos.

James [50:44]: "Bitcoin is clearly it has an asset value that, that is, that people are attaching to it."

Scott Melker offers an analogy comparing Bitcoin to the broader market, suggesting that while other cryptos may fail, Bitcoin remains the steadfast index.

Scott Melker [51:18]: "Bitcoin is the index. That's the way I've always framed it in my mind."

8. Historical Comparisons: Bitcoin vs Amazon

The hosts draw parallels between Bitcoin's current skepticism and Amazon's early challenges. Mike and Dave debate whether dismissing Bitcoin now is akin to underestimating Amazon's potential.

Dave Weisberger [44:38]: "Amazon was widely hated 25 years ago. That's where Bitcoin is now."

Mike McGlone [47:18]: "Wait, it was a time to make."

James adds that while Amazon has transformed into a tech giant, Bitcoin's path is still uncertain amidst regulatory and competitive pressures.

9. Final Debates and Closing Remarks

As the episode winds down, the participants engage in a heated debate over Bitcoin's future, ETF sustainability, and macroeconomic forecasts. Scott Melker praises the engaging discourse, highlighting the high viewership and the value of civil disagreement.

Scott Melker [61:37]: "This show should have... it should have 2 million."

Dave reiterates his bearish stance, emphasizing Bitcoin's high volatility and his preference for gold as a more stable asset amidst impending recession fears.

Dave Weisberger [60:28]: "Massive inflows and gold ETFs, massive outflows and Bitcoin ETFs..."

Mike counters by defending Bitcoin's fundamentals, citing increased network hash rate and energy investment as signs of its resilience.

Mike McGlone [53:26]: "Hash rate of the bitcoin network... it is real money backing the bitcoin network."

The episode concludes with Scott expressing gratitude to the guests for their spirited debate and hinting at topics for future episodes.

Scott Melker [62:21]: "This was one of the best hours of my show ever."

Notable Quotes

• Scott Melker [00:01]: "Bitcoin is showing signs of life trading back above $87,000 on this beautiful macro Monday."

• Dave Weisberger [01:30]: "It's more likely to be transitory... Copper is going up for the wrong reasons."

• James [05:55]: "Markets have been mean reverting back to the amount of liquidity that's out there."

• Dave Weisberger [09:58]: "Bitcoin is leveraged beta. It's a leveraged stock market and it's performing like that."

• Mike McGlone [20:51]: "Net inflows this week into Bitcoin ETFs... it's fair to say they're going down."

• Dave Weisberger [50:36]: "There are 13 million similar types [of cryptocurrencies]."

• Scott Melker [51:18]: "Bitcoin is the index. That's the way I've always framed it in my mind."

• Dave Weisberger [60:28]: "Massive inflows and gold ETFs, massive outflows and Bitcoin ETFs..."

• Mike McGlone [53:26]: "Hash rate of the bitcoin network... it is real money backing the bitcoin network."

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin's Resurgence: Bitcoin has rebounded to over $87,000, but its correlation with copper prices raises questions about underlying market dynamics.

• Copper Price Surge: The rise in US traded copper is attributed to tariff fears, but experts like Dave Weisberger caution that the surge is temporary and artificial.

• ETF Dynamics: Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing net outflows, contrasting with the increasing holdings in Gold ETFs, suggesting shifting investor preferences.

• Institutional Behavior: Institutions are seen as the stable force accumulating Bitcoin, while retail investors contribute to volatility through reactive trading.

• Macro Concerns: Ongoing debates highlight concerns about the Fed's policies, potential recession, and the sustainability of current economic models without further monetary expansion.

• Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Bitcoin maintains its leading position, but the proliferation of altcoins poses challenges to its dominance. The debate centers on whether Bitcoin's fundamentals set it apart or if the market is saturated with speculative assets.

• Historical Parallels: Comparisons to Amazon's early skepticism serve as a reminder of potential long-term growth, but differing circumstances in the crypto market complicate direct analogies.

• Future Outlook: The guests express divergent views on Bitcoin's trajectory, balancing bullish signals like increased network hash rate against bearish indicators like ETF outflows and macroeconomic headwinds.

This episode of The Wolf Of All Streets offers a robust debate on Bitcoin's current status and future prospects, intertwined with macroeconomic factors and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investments. Whether bullish or bearish, the discussions provide valuable insights for both seasoned investors and newcomers navigating the volatile crypto markets.