Podcast Summary: "Is Bitcoin Still A Risk Asset? | Macro Monday"
Released on July 28, 2025, "The Wolf Of All Streets" is hosted by Scott Melker, who engages with influential figures from various sectors, including Bitcoin, trading, finance, music, and art. In the episode titled "Is Bitcoin Still A Risk Asset? | Macro Monday," Scott delves into the current perception of Bitcoin as a risk asset amid shifting macroeconomic landscapes.
1. Introduction to the Discussion (00:01 - 04:55)
Scott Melker opens the episode by referencing a recent survey indicating that 64% of U.S. investors view Bitcoin as very risky. This statistic sets the stage for a deep dive into whether Bitcoin still functions as a traditional risk asset or has evolved into something different. Joined by guests James, Dave, and Mike, the conversation begins with a brief overview of current macroeconomic indicators.
Notable Quote:
"In a recent survey, 64% of US investors deemed Bitcoin very risky." — Scott Melker [00:01]
2. Macroeconomic Overview and Tariff Discussions (04:55 - 11:02)
Mike provides an outline of the week's significant economic data, highlighting improved consumer confidence, a second-quarter GDP forecast of 2.6% (above the consensus of 2.4%), and falling imports contributing to this growth. He notes that underlying growth remains modest at 1%, below the potential 1.7%. Mike anticipates a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, possibly indicating two rate hikes in the upcoming meeting—the most since Alan Greenspan's tenure.
Notable Quote:
"We brought in nearly 100 billion in tariff revenue so far and on track for 300 billion this year." — Maria [09:49]
3. Budget Surplus and Fiscal Policy Critique (09:24 - 11:28)
Scott introduces another topic regarding the U.S. budget, highlighting tariff revenues contributing to a $300 billion influx, nearly 1% of GDP. Mike elaborates on this, emphasizing the reduction in expenses alongside increased revenues. However, Dave critiques this perspective, arguing that focusing solely on budget surplus ignores the larger issue of the $37 trillion national debt and the ongoing fiscal challenges inherited by the current administration.
Notable Quote:
"This is how we clean up the fiscal mess we inherited." — Maria [09:49]
"The Federal Reserve has created dramatic wealth inequality and has led to a variety of social issues." — Dave [30:05]
4. Bitcoin as a Risk Asset vs. Traditional Investments (11:28 - 26:27)
The core discussion revolves around whether Bitcoin maintains its status as a risk asset. James compares Bitcoin's volatility and correlation to traditional markets, drawing parallels to Amazon's early days. Dave and Mike debate Bitcoin's investability, referencing a significant sale of 80,000 Bitcoins by Galaxy Digital, which had a minimal market impact—a stark contrast to previous large-scale sales that resulted in notable price drops.
Notable Quotes:
"What we're seeing now, we saw last week something that's, it's that was an event." — Dave [17:27]
"Bitcoin is so volatile, so much beta, so much everything." — Mike [23:55]
"The most important thing is the network—it's not the price, it's the network." — James [35:13]
5. Comparison with Amazon's Growth Trajectory (26:27 - 53:24)
James and Dave draw comparisons between Bitcoin and Amazon, emphasizing the importance of long-term growth perspectives. Using logarithmic charts, they illustrate how initial volatility can obscure the underlying growth potential. Dave argues that Bitcoin, like Amazon in its infancy, is positioned for substantial growth despite current perceptions of risk.
Notable Quotes:
"This is Amazon. Nope, go back down. This is Amazon in the late '90s." — James [32:22]
"If you can say I'm going to be wrong about a future prediction, that is absolutely wrong." — Dave [46:32]
6. Federal Reserve's Role and Monetary Policy Implications (53:24 - 62:26)
The conversation shifts to the Federal Reserve's monetary policies and their broader implications on the economy and Bitcoin's status. Dave criticizes the Fed's transparency and independence, arguing that its actions have exacerbated wealth inequality without sufficient accountability. James adds that the Fed's manipulation of interest rates and bond buying has significant effects on the economic landscape, indirectly influencing Bitcoin and other assets.
Notable Quotes:
"The Fed is enabling the treasury to print money and buy their own bonds to manipulate the curve." — James [30:13]
"Auditing the Fed is one of the most important things that needs to happen." — Dave [30:05]
7. Cryptocurrency vs. Bitcoin: Market Perceptions and Realities (62:26 - 53:24)
Dave and James differentiate between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that Bitcoin stands alone as a true cryptocurrency, whereas other tokens lack fundamental value and are often viewed as speculative assets. They discuss the misconception among investors who conflate all cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin, leading to skewed perceptions of risk.
Notable Quotes:
"There is one cryptocurrency, right. And that's Bitcoin. Everything else is an asset, it's not a currency." — Dave [41:37]
"The consensus is so far that can only go up. We have some major fundamental reasons that might end this US Exceptionalism premium." — Mike [26:27]
8. Future Outlook: Bitcoin's Potential and Market Dynamics (53:24 - End)
In the concluding segments, the panelists discuss the future trajectory of Bitcoin amid increasing institutional adoption and macroeconomic shifts. They debate whether Bitcoin can sustain its growth and whether current market conditions indicate a peak or a new phase of expansion. Mike remains skeptical about Bitcoin's long-term role compared to traditional assets like gold and Treasuries, while Dave remains cautiously optimistic, drawing on historical parallels with Amazon's growth.
Notable Quotes:
"We're hardly euphoric. There's accumulation." — Dave [51:07]
"Crypto's keeping up with the S&P 500, but on a very poor, risk-adjusted basis." — Mike [43:51]
"If you do get a crash of some sort, yeah, everything will go down. But if you don't, then the outperformance will continue." — Dave [52:48]
Conclusion
The episode concludes with a consensus that Bitcoin remains a contentious asset within the investment community. While it shares characteristics with traditional risk assets, its unique attributes and the evolving macroeconomic environment continue to influence its perception and performance. The panelists emphasize the importance of contextualizing Bitcoin's volatility and growth potential against historical precedents and broader economic indicators.
For those interested in understanding the nuanced perspectives on Bitcoin's role in today's financial landscape, this episode offers a comprehensive analysis backed by real-time data and expert insights.