Podcast Summary: "Is It Finally Time To Buy Bitcoin – Or Will It Nuke 20%?"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Wolf Of All Streets
• Host: Scott Melker
• Episode: Is It Finally Time To Buy Bitcoin – Or Will It Nuke 20%?
• Release Date: April 8, 2025
• Description: Host Scott Melker engages with prominent figures from Bitcoin, trading, finance, and other industries to delve deep into significant topics and stories.

1. Introduction

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker navigates the turbulent waters of recent market volatility, particularly focusing on Bitcoin's resilience and future prospects. Joined by Matt Hogan from Bitwise and Tuesday co-hosts Andrew and Tillman, the discussion spans market reactions to tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, Bitcoin ETFs, and innovative trading tools.

2. Market Volatility and Black Monday Aftermath

[00:00 - 02:13]

Scott Melker opens by addressing the recent "Black Monday," which, contrary to expectations, turned out to be relatively mild—a "nothing burger" with a mere 10% move on the S&P in 10 minutes triggered by fake news about Trump delaying tariffs.

Scott Melker [00:02]: "The very fact that we saw a 10% move on the S&P in 10 minutes on fake news that Trump was going to delay tariffs 90 minutes should show you everything you need to know about how much volatility we can expect."

Despite the subdued reaction, Scott emphasizes that the situation remains uncertain, setting the stage for a deeper analysis with his guests.

3. Bitcoin's Performance Amidst Market Fluctuations

[02:13 - 04:09]

Matt Hogan provides a reassuring perspective on Bitcoin's stability during recent market upheavals. Comparing the current scenario to the COVID-induced economic turmoil, he notes Bitcoin's remarkable resilience.

Matt Hogan [02:13]: "The last time we had economic Armageddon in Covid, bitcoin traded to 5,000 and wicked down to maybe 3,000, depending on what you were looking at. Now we're at 80. That doesn't seem so bad."

Scott highlights Bitcoin's steady performance even during market sell-offs, attributing it to its role as a "canary in the coal mine."

Scott Melker [03:01]: "Bitcoin just sat there and did nothing."

4. Impact of Tariffs and Federal Reserve Policies on Markets

[04:09 - 12:17]

The conversation delves into the implications of tariffs and Federal Reserve policies. Matt Hogan suggests that tariffs could lead to weaker fiat currencies globally—a boon for Bitcoin.

Matt Hogan [04:09]: "The net effect of the tariff tantrum is we're going to see weaker fiat currencies around the world, which is net positive for bitcoin."

Scott raises concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on refinancing debt, noting fluctuations in the 10-year bond yields.

Scott Melker [09:47]: "The 10 year right now like absolutely flying ... 4.237% today."

Matt concurs, discussing the inevitability of money printing to manage massive debt loads.

Matt Hogan [11:03]: "There's no way out of the massive debt loads. We're not going to go through the austerity that we need to get those really down."

5. Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge and Safe Haven

[12:17 - 17:29]

Scott and Tillman explore Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge. Tillman asserts that Bitcoin accurately reflects global inflation trends.

Tillman [13:21]: "Bitcoin is the most accurate indicator of global inflation that's ever been created."

Andrew adds that Bitcoin's "uncoupling" from traditional assets reflects its emerging independence and reliability.

Andrew [14:56]: "Bitcoin and Besant [Scott Besant] in those we trust, right?"

6. Institutional Investments and Bitcoin ETFs

[17:29 - 24:14]

The discussion shifts to Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investment. Matt Hogan highlights steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, driven by long-term buy-and-hold investors from traditional finance backgrounds.

Matt Hogan [20:13]: "It's going to be a great year. And that's what we're seeing. We're seeing steady hands, trickling inflows, a lot of interest."

Tillman emphasizes the expanded leverage products available today, allowing Wall Street to place significant margin bets on Bitcoin.

Tillman [19:56]: "You can play like the Wall street is able to place ... support the price with very little cash at, at key strategic levels."

7. Bitwise's Products and Innovations

[24:14 - 35:16]

Matt Hogan outlines Bitwise's latest offerings, including the Bitcoin Treasury ETF (OwnB) and option overlay strategies managed by Jeff Park.

Matt Hogan [32:52]: "We have our Bitcoin Treasury ETF OwnB, which holds companies that own bitcoin ... more ETFs in the future."

Scott humorously remarks on the complexity of Bitwise's financial products, highlighting Jeff Park's intellectual prowess.

Scott Melker [33:13]: "He's the smartest person on. He's on this show on Tuesdays all the time."

8. Community Discussions on XRP and Stablecoins

[35:16 - 47:23]

The panel transitions to discussing XRP and its community. Tillman praises XRP's technical strengths, such as rapid settlement times, while Scott compliments the XRP community's non-confrontational nature.

Tillman [43:14]: "XRP is set up very nicely ... it cannot be stopped."

Andrew and Tillman touch upon the potential of stablecoins as initial killer apps for crypto, envisioning their evolution over the next two decades.

9. Automated Trading Tools and Arbitrage Strategies

[47:23 - 51:40]

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Bitwise's automated trading tools and arbitrage strategies. Tillman explains the functionality of their arbitrage strategy, which automates buy/sell decisions based on Bitcoin's price movements.

Tillman [36:50]: "The arbitrage strategy allows you to pick movement thresholds both to the upside and the downside ... never take a losing position."

Andrew emphasizes the uniqueness of these tools, highlighting their institutional-level capabilities now available to retail investors.

Andrew [42:24]: "This is absolutely dynamic and allows you to set up that many different instances."

Matt Hogan announces upcoming features, including an XRP algorithm, catering to growing community interest.

Tillman [43:23]: "We have had a ton of people reach out to us requesting an XRP algo. So it is coming down the pike."

10. Conclusion

Scott Melker wraps up the episode by encouraging listeners to explore Bitwise's offerings and attend upcoming Bitcoin conferences. The panel underscores the evolving landscape of Bitcoin as a resilient asset amidst economic uncertainties, bolstered by institutional support and innovative trading solutions.

Scott Melker [50:18]: "Check out the algos. Archpublic.com ... we're going to have a lot of our employees there and if you're a customer of ours, we'd love to see you come find us and we'll shake your hand and talk, talk shop."

The episode concludes with a light-hearted exchange, reaffirming the strength and potential of Bitcoin in the current financial ecosystem.

Key Takeaways:

• Market Resilience: Bitcoin has demonstrated significant resilience amidst recent market volatility, maintaining its value better than during previous economic crises.

• Inflation Hedge: Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as an accurate reflection of global inflation, serving as a reliable hedge against fiat currency devaluation.

• Institutional Support: Steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs from institutional investors signal growing confidence and long-term commitment to Bitcoin as a viable asset class.

• Innovative Tools: Bitwise's advanced automated trading tools and arbitrage strategies provide retail investors with institutional-grade capabilities, enhancing accessibility and potential returns.

• Future Prospects: The move towards a multi-reserve world and the weakening of the US dollar's dominance position Bitcoin favorably for future growth and adoption.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker [00:02]: "The very fact that we saw a 10% move on the S&P in 10 minutes on fake news that Trump was going to delay tariffs 90 minutes should show you everything you need to know about how much volatility we can expect."

• Matt Hogan [02:13]: "Bitcoin held up ... I think long term, I think it's ready to move substantially higher if we get sustained stability for a while."

• Tillman [13:21]: "Bitcoin is the most accurate indicator of global inflation that's ever been created."

• Matt Hogan [32:52]: "We have our Bitcoin Treasury ETF OwnB, which holds companies that own bitcoin."

• Tillman [36:50]: "The arbitrage strategy allows you to pick movement thresholds both to the upside and the downside ... never take a losing position."

• Scott Melker [50:18]: "Check out the algos. Archpublic.com ... we're going to have a lot of our employees there."

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions from the episode, providing listeners—both existing and new—with valuable insights into Bitcoin's current standing and future trajectory amidst economic uncertainties.