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- [00:03]
A
Can you guys hear me or can you guys hear Dave? I cannot hear Dave, I can hear you. Cannot hear Dave.
- [00:11]
B
I can hear you.
- [00:12]
A
I can't believe the trade war crushed Dave's access to spaces. Crushed it. He would have been here and the trade war. Dave, I think you're gonna have to sign off and sign back on. Never without the challenges hosting this show on this platform. But yes, ladies and gentlemen have crypto apparently crushed but it got uncrushed because when we made that title, you know, bitcoin was right back down below 110. They traded down about 109, 990 or something. And here we are back at 112,000 all as well. Bull market isn't right. So obviously we have had the major move on Friday and I think the market's going to take some time to absorb that. We dug in with the information that we had yesterday as to how it happened. Dave obviously gave a great explanation explanation alongside Ian, the CEO of Coin Routes on what they were seeing from their platform and how leverage affected this and which platforms went offline and did not. We've seen some of that rhetoric between the, between the exchanges escalating. Obviously the centralized exchanges somewhat were pointing at the decentralized exchanges and then the hyper liquid CEO fired back saying, saying that the centralized exchanges were under reporting by a hundred times the liquidations. That maybe seems hyperbolic. I can't imagine, imagine there was a hundred times what we saw at 19 billion. But here we are. Dave, now I can definitely hear you.
- [01:46]
C
Yeah, I had to switch back to the phone. The computer was working and now all of a sudden it's not. I don't know, it's a thing.
- [01:53]
A
Welcome to Spaces sir.
- [01:54]
C
It's a, it's a thing. It's a thing. You know, it doesn't make sense that the centralized exchanges would be under reporting because you know, you can sleuth it out, I mean eventually people will be able to figure out, you know, what, what was gone on etc. You know the, the most important point about all of this is remember it's a zero sum game. So if a lot of people got liquidated and lost money, it was because of an enormous amount of profit being made by people on the other side side and who knows what they're doing with that money now. Realistically speaking it's going to be. There's. There should be a hangover. You would expect a hangover after an event like this. This is what I said yesterday and people jumped on me. I mean someone actually accused me of being Mike McGlone. Because I said there'd be a hangover, and, you know, you shouldn't expect it to go straight up. But the truth is, is the market has digested it far better than I would have expected. You know, I figured it would take at least a few days, you know, potentially a few weeks. And it looks like it's just trading in line like it used to kind of, you know, before, you know, anything else had really happened. I mean, if you only looked at the bitcoin chart, you would never, never, never have expected that the market took the kind of body blow that it did. I don't even. It's actually hard to understand how people don't look at it that way.
- [03:16]
A
Yeah, but that said, we were talking about the fact yesterday. I've tweeted about it a bit relentlessly and showed it on my shows. You generally get a 50% reactionary bounce on any impulsive move up or down. Either a 50% drop or a 50% bounce. Bitcoin basically recovered when it got up to about 116, 50% of that move down, and then obviously started to drop many times in these situations. As you, I think, said yesterday, you do see price go back and start to hover around the lows or test them before you see a direction chosen. And listen, we just got. We just got below 110, and on a lot of exchanges, the bottom was 109. So.
- [03:55]
C
Right. So, I mean, that's the thing. People think the bottom of the move was, was, you know, 105,000, but that's actually not true. It was 105,000 only in the liquidation.
- [04:07]
A
Engine, and nobody could buy that anywhere.
- [04:09]
C
You couldn't. So, you know, you're buying 108. 109 was probably the real bottom. When you have a candle like that, you almost have to take some weighted average of the candle, which basically means last night and this morning, we were pretty damn close to retesting the lows. As British Hodl pointed out, this action filled the CME gap, and I hate the CME gap as a thing. But statistically speaking, it almost always fills. And this is sort of the reason, because generally when there's a big move, you get the retest, et cetera. So arguably, this was the retest. And, you know, we'll see what happens. I mean, unless there's more trade war crap or whatever, and NASDAQ takes an epic dump. I suspect that we'll hover around here as the market gathers itself. But this feels a lot like the retest to me. And I know the technicians don't look at it that way. And frankly, I think that I can't remember whether it was you or it was Gary said yesterday. We were talking before Gary's space got rugged, that there's definitely PTSD in the crypto community, where the crypto community could say whatever they want on the Fear and greed index. But most people are like, wait a minute, the cycle's over. We have to get the hell out. And the buyers are in New York. And that's why we seem to be going back to what Mike Alfred said, which is the look to buy around the New York open as Asia is done. And then, you know, you could sell it midday and make a profit. I mean, I'm not. He wasn't saying sell it midday. He's just saying that there's just a predictable dip before market opens here. And that seems to be the, the place that we're in.
- [05:52]
A
Absolutely would love other people's thoughts on market currently where we stand, you know.
- [05:58]
C
Can you see, can you see Ali's hand up?
- [06:01]
A
Who's out? I don't see Ali on stage.
- [06:05]
C
I'm sorry. That's why I mentioned it. Ali, go ahead.
- [06:09]
D
Okay, yeah, wonderful. I'll take the calls from Dave here then. So, yeah, I was going to add in terms of Dave's sentiment there with, in regards to Bitcoin. So we did see like a bit of a pullback today and we are seeing like longs continuing to get liquidated. I think there was like $200 million worth of liquidations today so far. And what, what I was looking at was actually like a lot of these liquidations and stuff, they're actually coming from primarily Ethereum and the alt side. So Bitcoin is not actually the, the leading asset here for these liquidations that we're noticing. So it is a good sign that we're seeing Bitcoin being able to hold itself throughout all of these fluctuations. Headlines that been going on these last few days. And in regards to that trade war stuff that's been going on. So I noticed that Powell is actually set to speak today around 12:12pm or something like that about the economic outlook and monetary policy. So I wonder if he's going to be talking a little bit about what Trump was, you know, messaging with G back and forth this past weekend. So that'll probably be a topic of discussion to look out for and then potentially see how this, you know, rate cut that's projected to happen is going to actually come to fruition or not. Because without the economic data and stuff, and I, I see Roberts here too, which maybe he can speak to some of it as well. I'm just wondering how they're going to actually come up with a rate decision if there's enough data for them to look into to actually make that monetary policy happen towards the end of the month. Well, yeah, back to you.
- [07:58]
A
I don't see. I see Lou.
- [08:00]
C
Okay, yeah, okay, I'll help you. I see Richard first and then Lou.
- [08:05]
A
Okay, Richard then Lou. Go ahead.
- [08:08]
B
Guys, everything's going to be okay. I mean, Jim Crane is doing us a lot of favors here. He's, you know, he posted something saying you can take the air out of quantum new crypto and put that money into the real economy stock. So if we're going to counter trade. Jim to keep going. Jim, we need more of this, huh?
- [08:24]
C
Yeah. Could somebody just, you know, understand that, that Kramer is, has become effectively vis a vis crypto as random noise? He just chirps in, out, in, out, up, down. Yes. I mean, you know, it's, it's. The frequency is just, even for him is gotten to be absurd.
- [08:43]
B
You know, page out of Chef's book. Surely just understanding clickbait.
- [08:47]
C
Surely no, because he has plenty of followers. He doesn't need it. Right. You know, he has the, he has the platform. You know, this is. Yeah, I mean, look, I remember him when he was a hedge fund manager and he was actually a fairly good one. But you know, once he got on TV it just, well, the history is the history. But anyway, you know, it's certainly, we don't like to see it when he's bullish. We were happier when he's bearish. It's, that's all good, you know, because he, but you're right, he doesn't understand the, he certainly doesn't understand even the difference between Bitcoin and Fartcoin. So I mean, you know, what are you gonna do?
- [09:23]
B
Jokes aside, I just wanted to make a comment about stuff that for me what was really concerning was just how thin the liquidity is on, on some of our beloved alts. I think that is a real concern and you know, it chatters in some of our discord communities. Looking at long time crypto traders, people are very concerned and you're seeing a, a very emphatic rotation into what people are trying to perceive as quality stocks and quality coins. And you know, maybe for once people are looking at genuine utility with, with real business cases. Because this old adage that, that so much of this tech is, is ghostly or ghost chains and people are just buying into essentially community hype is concerning. You know, the fact that the market makers occupied most of the bids on the exchanges is a big concern.
- [10:18]
C
Well, under, you have to understand there are two things that, that are, that, that are very important to understand. There's two pieces of data you should look at. First of all, in all other electronic markets, doesn't matter, equities, whatever, you know, anywhere market makers these days in electronic markets are about 50% of the bids and offers on the exchanges. Full stop. That, that's, it's, it's pretty damn close to it. And you can see that that's the average. Now on stocks that have wider spreads, it's a little bit lower. On ones with tight spreads, it's a little bit higher, but it's about 50%. So the fact that that's almost certainly very similar in crypto is not remotely concerning. What is, what is understood. Also important to understand is that the ratio of volume to market cap in crypto is somewhere in the neighborhood of at least, well, it's about double from what I can see on average to where equities are. So crypto trades with a higher volume. That means that honestly when in times of stress that volume is more likely to fall farther. So you should probably expect about half the liquidity that you might expect in times of stress in crypto than you would in other assets relative to the market cap. But the problem is most people who trade don't actually take into account market cap. And so a stock with a hundred, you know, with a one billion dollar market cap is going to have a lot less liquidity than a stock with $100 billion market cap and so on. And so understand that the last thing to keep in mind is in electronic markets, and I keep saying this, I've made this explanation, I actually wrote a paper on this over a decade ago, believe it or not. Frigging crazy for me to think that which analyzed volatility in markets and specifically looked at the concentration of liquidity at or near the best bidder offer. And in electronic markets, as opposed to dealer markets or auction markets or others, there's an enormous concentration. And so when you get a fast move that punches through the top of the order book, the liquidity is way, way less. So people who look at their quote beloved alts and say there's no liquidity when this is happening, no, this is just normal. The reality is markets are not designed for liquidity. As markets are moving nearly as much as you think it is a Feature of electronic markets. And so if you're looking for high velocity trading, you need to understand these things. And a lot of people who are trading, frankly have no idea about how this stuff works. And so you just understand.
- [13:02]
B
Thanks, Dave, that was helpful.
- [13:05]
C
Glad to help.
- [13:05]
A
But you know, Lou, I know you had your hand up before.
- [13:08]
C
Yeah, Lou had his hand up and then. Andre.
- [13:10]
A
Yeah, Andre's here.
- [13:12]
C
Wow, cool. Hi, Andre.
- [13:14]
E
Hey, Andre. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot to digest since Friday. I mean, I quite honestly, I did agree, I agree with what Richard said about, you know, I think that while maybe we should have known that there was less liquidity, the truth is I think a lot of people thought there was more liquidity than there really is. But I thought what cascaded everything and this hasn't been touched here, I wasn't. Part of the conversations yesterday was the oracle problem on finance, which, that was a threat that was totally unknown by people, I think. Which begs the question, okay, what other systemic risks are out there that we don't know?
- [13:57]
A
That's a, it's a great question. And I think that Lou, we did discuss it yesterday and I think we're just some of waiting for more information for everything to shake out. Finance clearly admitted some fault because they were funding people.
- [14:11]
E
Right?
- [14:11]
A
So I mean, that was clearly one of the stories. I mean, you don't just send a couple hundred million back to people if things didn't break. So I guess the question is, is it something with their systems or was this just such a big violent move that this was one of those stress test moments and see what happened in the future.
- [14:28]
C
But.
- [14:32]
A
Lou, were you saying something? If not Austin, jump in? Oh, no, no.
- [14:35]
E
I mean, I just, it seemed to be from, from everything. It's an oral problem, which is what often causes these problems. But you know, nobody knew that. They were obviously pointing the oracles to themselves.
- [14:48]
A
Well, I can, yeah, I can say something, Dave. Interestingly, the I use arch public alos on Robin Hood for obviously for trading. And I know that, you know, on most exchanges you couldn't fill low. But because Robin Hood doesn't have an order book and is like sourcing liquidity elsewhere, it was actually filling for me at much lower prices than were probably available on spot exchanges that were offline.
- [15:13]
C
I, I won't explain that again because anyone who wants to listen, why that's true. Yeah, that's on yesterday's show. You can do the rewind.
- [15:20]
A
Yeah, exactly. Just tell you it was interesting because I totally filled, you know, sub 110 there.
- [15:25]
C
Yeah. No, no, it's true. For a bunch of reasons. The, the point, Lou, about Binance, though, understand, I mean, we had, you know, Ian Weisberger on yesterday and at coin routes, we're taking in all of the market data constantly. Binance was Washington down? It was down. Damn close to hard. And by the way, what I mean by hard or soft, most of the time when these exchanges die and their, their matching engines go bad, it's a soft down. So they're, they're, they're refreshing or publishing stale quotes at the same time as their order gateways slow down to a crawl where people can't get into them. And it's all because of peak, Peak load management. And peak load management is very hard. I mean, this is not, you know, I'm not beating the crap out of Binance for it, but the truth is.
- [16:09]
E
Because that's where AWS exists.
- [16:13]
C
Yeah, trust me, it doesn't matter. You still have to provision servers. I don't want to go into that minutia. Just saying peat load management is hard. Binance was down. The problem with Oracles are if an Oracle doesn't have all the data sources available to it, it's not going to give you the right answer. And so if you're doing an off chain liquidation on the basis of Binance prices, you were totally hosed and there was just nothing you could do about it because Binance prices were stale. And so what do you do if you're, you know, it depends how the thing's coded and it's all these liquidation engines are closed source, so we don't know. So just keep that in mind. Anyway, Andre was next and then I think Austin, then Ali.
- [16:58]
F
Yes, exactly. Thank you. Yeah, I just want to raise like a bullish flag, right, Because I think like this, the whole space is a bit bearish because I think my key thesis essentially remains that. I mean, based on the discussion we're having, the sell off was largely mechanical.
- [17:17]
A
Right.
- [17:18]
F
Liquidations, Oracle problems, whatnot.
- [17:20]
A
Right.
- [17:20]
F
But essentially largely mechanical. But there was no change in the fundamental picture.
- [17:26]
G
Right.
- [17:27]
F
In the macro picture, liquidity continues to grow, continues to accelerate. Business cycles recovering.
- [17:33]
C
Already.
- [17:34]
F
You've seen the earnings revisions going up, right? Sharply. There's this thing about, I mean, you could argue whether Trump's new tweets about tariff policy actually increasing policy uncertainty and therefore global growth expectations. But I mean, tariff policy uncertainty has peaked in April.
- [17:58]
D
Right.
- [17:58]
F
Based on these trade policy uncertainty indices has been moving lower. And even these latest statements haven't really brought a huge Change in that kind of trade policy uncertainty. So I think from pure macro perspective, nothing has changed. And if you look at sentiment itself, we published like an intraday crypto asset sentiment index. It plunged to the lowest level since the yen carry trade unwind, essentially in August 2024. We know what happened afterwards, right. Like Bitcoin is up, I think 80% since that yen carry trade unwind. So it's quite, it's quite asymmetric in terms of risk reward, in my view.
- [18:44]
C
So, Alan, where could people find that intraday sentiment index?
- [18:48]
F
So we, we publish it on a weekly in our crypto market compass at bibwise and you can find it in the appendix essentially of that report.
- [18:58]
C
I see, but you're measuring an intraday, but you don't publish it intraday.
- [19:03]
F
Well, we measure. Yes, exactly. We publish it on weekly basis.
- [19:06]
C
Okay.
- [19:07]
F
Or we do like ad hoc reports where we say, like, okay, it has like flash, the contrary buying signal.
- [19:13]
C
Got it. Okay. I think Austin was next.
- [19:19]
H
I think I might be next. All right, so one of, one of the things I found interesting about the crash is that crypto has had this problem for a long time, especially as you look back at things like a number of hacks and exploits of not learning some of the basic risk management lessons from other platforms. And it appears that here we just wiped out an absolute truckload of people by having that exact same problem. So, like, as somebody who's, you know, I don't know, had to manage a 40x, you know, fund or like, had to close books at a bank, you're required to have multiple redundant quotes when you're pricing things. Right. Like, the idea that I'm going to rely on a single pricing source or a single Oracle and all but the junkiest of markets where you're taking very large, like risk charges for doing that is genuinely insane. Like, if I had gone to my lawyers at a place like stoneridge and said, yeah, yo, I'm just going to use, you know, this one broker sheet to close our funds, they would have thrown me out the window of the, the 21st floor where we were at the time. And so when you look at things like the hard crash of Binance that you referenced, Dave, part of that really is, guys, how did you not have multiply redundant Oracle solutions built in for this? Like, anybody who was just taking Binance prices essentially just was holding a live grenade that is very well known to be a live grenade and unsurprisingly, it would offer their hands. You know, you could find similar things throughout time like the Mango markets hack was totally preventable if somebody had not used, oh, I don't know, spot like top level trading book prices to lend against. And to me this is just one more call for hey, if we want this space to be taken seriously or the stuff people are building in this space to win, you need to do better. Because incidents like this are the ones where you get the biggest pushback from people in tradfi who look at this and just go like guys, this is a known problem. What, what are you all doing over there?
- [21:15]
C
Is kind of the vibe. I mean, look, I don't want to turn this into an advertisement to the company that I founded, but quite literally that is, that is one of the main benefits of coin routes, right? You know, you have access to everything and as well information as well as trading and that's important. And, but it's not just Oracle failures, it's also people and we talked about this at length yesterday as well. People don't truly understand what their risk is. You know, and we've talked about this in a bunch of different spaces. Until you can, if you're using collateral other than USDT on most of these exchanges, you, your risk is significantly higher than you think it is. And that, that bit a lot of people in the ass. And so, you know, that is a lesson that's going to take a while to learn. And that by the way, by the way, if people listen to that, it would create a fairly significant contraction in the market volumes because people believe they can trade X in reality safely. They can trade probably 60% of X give or take. So that would be a significant volume decrease which the exchanges don't want. But the truth is that there's a lot more risk being taken and so eventually that will, that's one of the reasons that the market has to settle it. Now by the way, risk does not necessarily is not directional. It could be it's ups as well as downs. It doesn't matter. But the fact is there's a lot more risk on long positions when you collateralize with the same kind of very highly correlated, very volatile assets that you're speculating on. And that is a big deal. And that is a bit of a reset for, for the alt market and I know people on the alt side don't care. Now by the way, the bitcoin market is totally unaffected by this for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which was Bitcoin actually has more liquidity relative in USDT based perpetuals and futures than it used to be. All that liquidity was in the so called coin margin, you know, the inverse perpetuals, which had this problem, you know, right in it. So one would expect Bitcoin dominance to tick up a bit as people start sorting this out. Now that that's a temporary thing, it's not a long term thing, but as a temporary thing, one would expect that. So that's something people should think about anyway, I think. Ali and then Richard.
- [23:45]
D
Yeah, I was gonna also add in terms of when, when Austin was kind of talking about how the space is looking like, and not to like point any fingers or anything like that, but in addition to the Binance accusations and stuff, so I was listening to George from Cryptos R Us. There was like a big spaces going on on Saturday, Mario Spaces for the debrief. And he was basically mentioning how he was partnered with some exchanges and he spoke to those exchanges to ask them what's been going on. And essentially those exchanges were saying how all of these other exchanges depend on Binance's order book data as well as going to Binance to borrow for liquidity. And when that whole event happened, not only that users were affected, but the exchanges were affected as well. So there might be some kind of reshuffling in terms of how these exchanges plan to operate in the future, so something like this doesn't happen. And then in regards to that mysterious trader that put in the big short right 30 minutes before the Trump announcement and then opened up another short yesterday when things were looking good and green. And then this morning we see, you know, things are pulling back a little bit. I read a little bit of investigative thread yesterday by Ionchain yesterday and basically they were pointing towards someone that could potentially be affiliated with the World Liberty Fight team. So like think Eric And Donald Trump Jr. And all that type of stuff. So I was gonna say this isn't really looking good for them now because I'm pretty sure they had another scandal of insider trading as well when they had the token launch and all that type of stuff like a month ago and some selling going on. So just a couple things to look out for in terms of what's been going on behind these curtains. But yeah, back to you.
- [25:48]
C
Richard. I think you're next then. Gary.
- [25:50]
B
Yeah, look, I think overall, you know, had we had the industry operated, you know, as per normal with the tariff knee jerk from last week, we wouldn't be having these conversations. I just don't think this was once again great optics for, for crypto. I thought we were, we were past this, you know, there's been a lot of faith instilled in the large players. And yeah, Binance I suppose needs to take one on the chin here. But you know, to break records for, you know, a wipeout in crypto is not a great headline, especially when we're at all time highs and, and that's concerning for me, you know, but to zoom out, you know, I think I've yet to, yet to be convinced that, that bitcoin has proven itself a de facto digital gold, although we'd like to believe that. And it's trading very much like a risk asset. And you know, my, my principle is simple, is that I think we saw an indication of this over the last day or so even in the early stages of Monday morning was, even with the slightest width of, of sentiment shifting. People have got goldfish memory are going to rush back in and gobble up crypto if they think the markets are going to turn just trying to get these outsized results. And I think people are generally still anticipating a big push into the end of the year. So you know, let's get over this feed hump. You know, we're doing a lot of paralysis analysis about what went wrong. But yeah, I mean it's, it's a macro game and if things align, we're off to the races in my opinion.
- [27:30]
C
Gary.
- [27:31]
G
Yeah, guys, I was, maybe I'm doing something wrong here. Maybe you guys can fix me. This morning I could have bought 20,000 ounces of silver or 243 ounces of gold. Instead I bought 10 bitcoin. Now am I doing something wrong? Is the market gonna, you know, rug me 111 grand? I, I don't know how that's not going to be a good trade here in eight months. Even if I'm, even if I'm borrowing at 8% to buy it. Can somebody tell me what I'm doing.
- [28:04]
C
Wrong.
- [28:08]
G
While we're chasing them, while the industry is going to chase the miners, I'm getting ready to say this. I can't. I own a shitload of miners. But this is so 2000 and this feels so much like the telecom fiber days.
- [28:26]
C
Well, there's one.
- [28:29]
G
This thing is getting too cooked, okay? You can't have 18 gigawatts show up tomorrow morning in the power market.
- [28:37]
C
The question is the biggest difference between this and telco. And I was right in the middle of that, sitting on the trading floor and I can tell you that the capacity the telcos were being built on the basis of, well, they're going to need the Demand, they're going to need the capacity.
- [29:00]
G
The more you go through this narrative, you're going to realize this feels so much like that era.
- [29:05]
C
Oh, it's a lot like it, except for one difference, the demand. Whether or not it's right or wrong, whether the AI companies have it correct or not, the demand for compute is dramatically larger than our current capacity, whereas the demand for broadband was dramatically lower than the current capacity in, in 1999. That's the difference.
- [29:25]
G
They were all betting on the future, though, right? But now betting on this.
- [29:30]
C
There's.
- [29:31]
A
They were early, though, and we're late.
- [29:34]
C
Right? That's the difference. And, and, but you're right, though, and what you just mentioned is a very important piece, which is if you're a provider and you can't access the power to go along with the data center space and everything in a, in a package, you're aft because you can't bring that stuff online fast enough. I mean, Elon tweeted this yesterday. He said, so has anyone figured out how many nuclear reactors would need to be open between now and in 2028 to satisfy the demand of all this? And the answer is, you know, obviously you can't. So, yeah, there's definitely mismatches. There's no doubt. But, you know, bitcoin is actually going to be part of that solution because you're going to need renewables and off chances. You need all sorts of stuff that needs to be smoothed out. Right. Which is, I assume, part of the thesis, right, Gary?
- [30:24]
G
Yeah. Look, this is why I like the bitcoin, right? Because I look at these miners and I'm into them. I'm just saying that they're getting hot now. I've seen this before. Like, I have to think about my exit on these miners. Yeah, you can't just, like, I have a thousand percent on two of them, okay? In 18 months, 16 months, the whole goal was to convert to bitcoin. Now I'm looking at it right now. I'm going, okay, well, do I buy $111,000 bitcoin or do I go jump in on one of these miners that, you know, like an iron that's got a. There's a lot of opportunity here. The problem for me is I have to. I just go back to basics, okay? And my basics are don't get piggy, don't start trading. I don't need to trade futures on bitcoin. I might be able to make a lot more money, but I'm not looking at my chart. 2am in the morning. I'm not getting phone calls on margins. I'm not going to lose my bitcoin. The worst I'm going to do is lose 8% on my carrying cost. And I just, you know, it's very hard when everybody around you is just making, or they say they're making shitloads of money to remain sane and keep that. Just do your plan, dude. Add 10 bitcoin, add 1 bitcoin, add half a bitcoin, Whatever you can do.
- [31:50]
A
I'll take your 10, Gary, for just throwing out numbers, I mean.
- [31:54]
G
Well, I like to. I'd like to know how low we're going to go here because I've got another 10 placed at 1. Oh, 8, 5. I don't think I'll get hit.
- [32:01]
A
But, dude, you have arch. You have arch public too, man. Yeah, and forget it. I had that thing crushed it for me this week. Absolutely crushed it.
- [32:11]
C
So I mean, the one point that, that's interesting before we go back to Andre is has anybody heard, you know, we, we. The expectation is there's bodies floating to the top of the pool or will be, you know, that the depth charge basically shut people out. We don't know. We heard rumors of trading firms, but I've heard no names. And I'm curious what people have heard. I mean, certainly there's a whole pile of influencers who are going to go silent for a while and because of things that happen to them and their people, even, even the ones that claim to be right all the time. I mean, the problem is if you listen to crypto Twitter, everybody's making piles of money and they just, they show their good trades and don't show their bad ones. The problem is when the bad ones are catastrophic. Well, you know, you can see that. So I'm really curious to see how the dust settles. And we don't really know. Anyway, Andre.
- [33:00]
F
I just want to say about bitcoin versus gold or precious metals in general, the way I look at bitcoin versus gold is risk on, risk off. Right. Might be too simplistic, but what we also do at Baywa is we calculate a cross asset risk appetite index, which essentially measures cross asset risk appetite across really all assets like equities, bonds, commodities, fx. And this index tends to cycle with the bitcoin and gold relative performance. Right. So when you have like low cross asset risk appetite, bitcoin tends to underperform gold and vice versa. But bitcoin and gold tends to even lead this cross asset risk appetite. So we've seen this massive underperformance of bitcoin versus gold, which tends to foretell some kind of decline in process risk appetite. And I also think we haven't seen that in tradfi. Right. Across equities. I think there's still some downside left in traditional financial markets. But I think in terms of the relative ratio, I'd rather buy bitcoin right now because that relative performance change minus two standard deviations right now. And if you believe that global growth expectations will continue to improve. Right. Because of increasing liquidity growth. And that's usually the case. Right. If you have like accelerating liquidity growth, all of these corrections, like the yank carry trade on white for instance, tariff policy shock that tend to be recessionary. Right. They tend to be short lived as well. That's why I think dips are for buying. And if you look at like the dip in bitcoin versus Gold, I'd rather buy bitcoin.
- [34:40]
E
What in your opinion has, has changed about gold because this gold run has been going on for a while. You just think it's getting long in the tooth or is there something fundamentally changing?
- [34:51]
F
I think like it's, it's getting long in the tooth. So if you look at things like fractal dimension, it's a funny, funny kind of indicator. But it essentially measures whether you have some kind of herding.
- [35:03]
A
Right.
- [35:04]
F
And you've seen like this, this indicator being, being triggered. Right. But I, I mean we can still see gold rallying a couple of hundred dollars even if this kind of signal is triggered. But it essentially means. But Andre, you're gonna, the market's becoming homogeneous.
- [35:21]
G
Andre, you're gonna have herding, right? I mean if central banks, central banks are buying gold, they're not. This isn't, is this, you guys think.
- [35:28]
F
This is retail, but that's not new information. Right. They've been buying all the time, Right.
- [35:36]
A
I think retail has piled in, but is a fraction of.
- [35:40]
G
But it's not.
- [35:40]
A
You don't think price gain.
- [35:41]
G
Yeah, yeah. I think the big boys are driving price.
- [35:45]
A
Yeah, I think a lot of people are buying, but they're. Yeah, exactly.
- [35:48]
C
The real question is is who's selling and where and, and, and is it paper sales? Are there real deliveries? I mean, you know, there's this issue that Larry was pointing out yesterday, Lapard on silver where, you know, it's pretty clear that they didn't have the silver to meet delivery requests and so they had to fly silver across the Atlantic. And by the way, flying silver is super expensive.
- [36:11]
G
That's insane. Well, that was the Point I was trying to make, 20,000 ounces is a million dollars. 20,000 ounces. Bitcoin weighs nothing.
- [36:20]
A
I mean, yeah, even gold weighs Nothing.
- [36:24]
E
Yes.
- [36:25]
G
That's 243 ounces.
- [36:28]
F
They're PEX Gold.
- [36:29]
G
It's interesting, Andre, I actually surprised that. That we're hearing people talk, especially Europeans talk about gold and silver topping out. I think, you know, especially in Europe, you're breaking apart. Like, I don't know how, you know, I mean, everything.
- [36:48]
F
Everything's breaking apart.
- [36:50]
C
Yeah.
- [36:50]
G
So where do you go? That's my point. Like, do you just stay in equities or. It seems to me like gold is not going to be something that gets sold quickly. Like, who would be a seller and why?
- [37:06]
C
Well, Andre, I was curious. I mean, what did you make of Paul Tudor Jones's comment on the debasement trade? Because he specifically and. And Scott pointed this out. He was the first. I. I actually didn't realize. But, you know, this week he basically made the page point that the debasement trade is you buy gold, bitcoin, and nasdaq. And his reasoning is, so basically this notion of risk versus non risk. He's basically saying, listen, some of what people charge as risk are taking advantage of the AI trend, et cetera, et cetera. But the denominator affects all three. And so a lot of the metrics that used to be risk versus non risk, in a world where people are starting to wake up to the actual amount of money printing, those correlations are going to change. Now, the last time Paul Tudor Jones made a statement like this, he was about three months early. I know because that's when I bought most of the bitcoin that I own. And it plinked between, you know, 7,000 and 11,000 for several months before. Oh, poor boy. Poor boy. But I'm just saying, you know, I just remember it very well. I mean, he's basically saying that the world. The correlations in the world have changed. And I thought that was fascinating. I mean, Scott, you made a big deal of this one. You heard it as well, right?
- [38:26]
A
Yeah, big deal.
- [38:27]
F
I mean, the correlations have changed, right? The correlations have essentially changed since 2022, right?
- [38:33]
C
When.
- [38:33]
F
When the west froze Russian assets.
- [38:35]
A
Honestly, whether they've. Whether they've factually changed, which they have. Andre, to your point or not, the narrative has changed. And this is the last three weeks is the first time that we're hearing people that are not bitcoiners talk about bitcoin as a part of the debasement trade, rather than bitcoin as high beta to Nvidia and those people, J.P. morgan, Morgan Stanley, Ken Griffin, Paul Tudor Jones, we've obviously had Larry Fink before who's leading the charge on that. But these are the biggest names at the biggest institutions, not only talking about debasement trade, but all including bitcoin as the answer to that.
- [39:19]
E
Well, I think as an answer, but apparently at the moment gold being a much more readily available for I think most entities making that trade.
- [39:36]
A
Yes, perhaps. But I think like I said, it's more of a narrative shift because every single one of them said bitcoin.
- [39:45]
C
Right. And that does matter or will matter. It doesn't matter right now, but that's where the bid is coming from. So if you ask yourself, well, why is bitcoin kind of in this, been in this range, why did it hold up well with all of what we said is the carnage inside the crypto ecosystem, why did it hold up so well, the answer is that's where the bid is from and the bid is firm. Doesn't mean it's going to go fomoing and crazy, but that bit is firm. So the real question is, is selling and supply. And you know, when a lot of what happened when bitcoin bottomed after like the FTX crash was there were a ton of people who owned bitcoin on FTX and, and, and lost it, it was like, well, what the hell do we do now? Right? And yeah, you got money back for it at, you know, valued at what, 16,000 some odd dollars. But the truth is that it took a while, it took several months before things reversed. And I'm not saying that it will take several months this time actually because timeframes tend to accelerate pretty quickly. But there is a time element here always.
- [40:51]
A
So listen, I invited my friend Julian here because I want to have a conversation with him and he hasn't had the opportunity to speak yet. Julian, what's up man? I don't think I've seen you since Vegas. Right in line for our passes. Is that the last time we saw each other?
- [41:04]
C
That's right.
- [41:08]
A
I'm doing well, man. So there were a few reasons that I invited Julian and wanted to make sure we spoke because a, you know, obviously as the founder of ixs, we could talk about real world assets, but I noticed something in this crash that you're definitely not going to be able to talk about specifically, but RWA tokens kind of went up and I'm looking now at your chart. Sorry. If I'm going to get you in trouble, because I know you won't be able to comment on it, but I believe that IXS was trading at about 10 cents when the crash happened. Didn't really drop at all by Saturday was 14, currently above 20 cents. And then I started checking other RWA charts and a lot of them not performing quite as well, but seemingly there was this complete. Like they were a different market. I mean, is. Is there something I'm missing here? I know you can't, like I said, speak to the price specifically of your. Your token, but. Yeah, what's going on?
- [42:07]
C
Sure. Yeah.
- [42:09]
H
I think it's quite interesting.
- [42:10]
I
You know, I think we connected way back in 2018 that we've been focusing on RWA specifically out of. Out of Asia.
- [42:17]
A
Hey, Julie, I'm not sure if your mic, you can get it any louder, but you've got a bit of an echo. If not, just go ahead, but if you can.
- [42:23]
C
Yeah, okay.
- [42:24]
I
Is that a bit better?
- [42:25]
A
Yeah, that is.
- [42:27]
C
Okay, cool. Yeah. So anyway, be focusing on rwa, but.
- [42:30]
I
I think what happened just recently was quite interesting. You know, I think this year we've seen real kind of adoption for, you know, the treasury tokens, the money market tokens, and now we're seeing other types of assets. So, I mean, if you look at. Actually, you know, I think it was Friday morning or Saturday morning, I woke up here in Singapore and, you know, the markets had all fallen apart, but none of those actual robot asset tokens had dropped. A lot of them have actually gone up. So in crypto, we've got a unique setup where RWA has been used as. As a subset of the industry which covers stable coins, it covers equity tokens, it covers Treasuries and everything, even though there's some nuances there. And it also covers the actual RWA platforms and the utility tokens of such. So there's a bit to digest there. But look, overall, I think it is really good for the RWA industry because I think that's been one of the key benefits and value propositions for the space, is that you come in with these different assets and they help crypto grow. A lot of it's paired against and it has a different use case. And when crypto is one side of it, you also have all of these in the reward asset industry, ultimately.