Transcript
Scott (0:00)
Morning everybody. Happy December 26th. The day after Christmas of course, and first day of Hanukkah for those who celebrate and of course Boxing Day in parts of the world. We didn't have a show for the last few days. Obviously we'll probably be a bit shorter and smaller show here through the holidays. But excited to get back at it here for Crypto Town Hall. We've got Dan, Carlo, Dave and Panos all here today to join Tom. We're going to talk I guess a bit first about the market kind of chopping still here around 96,000. Not much of a surprise to me. Although you know, the day sort of did start today. Over 99,000. So maybe some surprise that we're have dropped in testing those kind of lower prices after this little Santa Claus rally. Panels. What do you make of the market right now?
Carlo (0:51)
I think it's pretty typical of this time of the year historically when we're around Christmas time and the new year we do seem to get some sell offs. So I'm not too worried. I'm actually kind of expecting bitcoin to go a little bit lower before we start moving up again next year. So I think it's pretty typical to be fair.
Scott (1:15)
Yeah, I agree. I think that people are generally off. There's not much volume, not much liquidity. But that said, there are some stories here like the one above that there's actually a ton of volume, volume and liquidity just not over these exact holiday days. We've got obviously 1.2 Bitcoin billion in BTC ETF outflows in a couple days. No surprise obviously. I think with the price drop and people sort of taking profit into the end of the year, we see a lot of shenanigans and nonsense I think in the last weeks of the year. But I don't know if you guys saw. But there's also a story that OTC volumes on bitcoin are at like historic highs. That they're. I think the article said that they were going quote unquote gangbusters. So obviously off the exchanges we're seeing a ton of interest in bitcoin trading between primarily institutions you would imagine. We also have a 14 billion bitcoin options expiry tomorrow, which is the most in history by far on dare bit with about 4 billion in the money. I mean Dave, what do you make of this? Seems like there's a ton of ton happening behind the scenes.
Dave (2:18)
I mean, yeah, I mean I understand the otc, but look, the OTC volumes, people don't really Understand what. What does that mean? What it means is that there's liquidity being demanded by institutions that the OTC desks then have to source from the derivative markets or the spot markets using tools like, like coin routes or Talos or if it's coinbase, their own internal one that they had bought. And so it makes the volume harder for people to understand what's actually happening. But I can tell you that the institutional volumes for this time of year are crazy high relative to what you would expect. Right? What you would expect is people sleeping, you know, like, oh, God, how much eggnog did I have? Oh, God, how much did I eat yesterday? But that's not what we're seeing. What you're seeing is a lot of volume coming from a few fewer orders than would be a normal time of year. So that's why it's not that surprising. We saw the market get slammed down last night. You know, we've seen. While we've been talking, you know, it looks on my chart big, but it's a tiny, you know, we're in a small range, but I mean, you know, we're about to go back up over 96 again, and we were pushing 95 a few seconds ago. Is that a big deal? Not really. Obviously it's not a lot. So, you know, there is still the underlying demand in Bitcoin. While a lot of alts have gotten, well, some of us will call it, you know, Christmas shopping, and others will call it wrecked. For those who are looking to deploy capital into alts, the last few last week or so has been awesome. But, you know, you could tell it's all, you know, one man's, you know, you know, it's all a question of perspective. But look, you know, I think that you and Mike, your show, and I advise I would, you know, I'll give you a shameless plug. You can't do it for yourself. I think anybody who's serious about understanding how to deploy capital should go back and listen to Scott's YouTube program this morning with Mike Alfred, because. Because it was extraordinarily good. And Mike made a lot of points in there that are important. One of the things he talked about was the option expiration is generally you have to get past that in order, especially when this one is very large, in order for markets to move. And that is true in the crypto markets where it's running liquidity. But if you look at things like the first thing I did this morning after last night was look at funding rates and liquidations and Compared to the size of the move, liquidations were small. So this was essentially someone dumping, probably spot, you know, taking profits, booking their profits, you know, before the year end and there just wasn't a lot of bids to cover it up. And then people wake up and go, what the hell? And they start buying again. And you know, and that's where we're at now. So it's the kind of market you can push around if you're big, if you want to, you shouldn't want to, but people do. So that, that's really my 2 cents.
