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The Wolf Of All Streets
Massive Bitcoin ETF Surge - But The Stablecoin Bill Is The Real Gamechanger
00:47:43
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- [00:01]
Scott
Bitcoin ETFs have logged $1.8 billion in inflows over just the last six days. And as that volume ramps up, we're also seeing more interest in Ethereum spot ETFs and of course, as we discussed with Matt Hogan yesterday, the likelihood of some other ETFs for other assets being approved. But that's not even the most exciting thing that's happening today, obviously. The genius bill passed by the Senate yesterday and I have one of my favorite all time guests here to join and discuss all of it. I've got Sandy called the head of innovation at Franklin Templeton. I'm so excited for today's show, guys. Let's go.
- [00:41]
Sandy
Let's dope.
- [00:56]
Scott
As I said, I've got one of my favorites here. I'm going to bring her right on. Sandy, how are you today?
- [01:02]
Sandy
Excellent. So nice to be here with you. Great to see you again.
- [01:05]
Scott
We got you scheduled and then I turn on Bloomberg and there you are saying that the Senate stablecoin Act critical Franklin Templeton's call. I've got great timing today. As I mentioned to you today, I'm actually recording a podcast later with Senator Haggerty, which was just complete coincidence that the bill got passed last night and we have him today. But as you said here, Senate stablecoin Act critical, it has now passed the Senate. It will head to the House and likely to the president's desk. A I mean, how are you handicapping the success of the likelihood of success here that it gets passed all the way through? And why then do you believe that it is so critical?
- [01:40]
Sandy
Yeah, I mean, look, I think we're going to get a bill passed. The House is always a little trickier than the Senate in many ways. But I think there's a lot of bipartisan support and I think a lot of people understand that this is key to our remaining at the core of the competitive environment that's emerging globally. And it is actually something that's very beneficial for the US Dollar as well. And that's always a goal of the administration. So I think that you will see support emerge for this and it will get to be law. Maybe not right away, there might be some finagling, but that's Washington. But I do believe this is heading to the President's desk and will be signed in this year. So that's going to give us some real certainty around how to bring stablecoins in as a normal piece of our financial market infrastructure.
- [02:32]
Scott
Yeah. And so why then, I mean, taking the 30,000 foot view, why is this so important that we get this done and that we get it right? So maybe it's a two part question. First, why are stablecoins so important and why do we need them legislated on? And then we'll talk about whether they're actually doing it in the right way or maybe there's some unintended pitfalls that could be in there, you know, as it goes through the house.
- [02:53]
Sandy
Okay, well, why is it so important? SAR is because what we're looking at is a transition that's happening in the way that our economy works. Right. We have been in a account based economy pretty much our entire lives, right? Banks, you have a checking account, you have a savings account, you might have a brokerage account, you might have a retirement account. These are all separate accounts. And each of these accounts is kept on its own ledger by whatever organization you hold it with. The bank, the brokerage firm, it's all very fragmented. We're moving away from that, Scott, to a wallet based system. And that wallet based system is one where all your assets sit in your cryptographically protected wallet. And if we want to move cash around in that system, that is the role that stablecoins are playing. It's bringing the fiat currency out of today's traditional banking system or brokerage networks and it's moving it into this wallet based ecosystem, which is where the crypto blockchains exist, where the cryptocurrencies exist. And this is why stablecoins are so important. They're both the on and off ramp. But more importantly, they've really become the liquidity vehicle to keep assets in this wallet based system.
- [04:17]
Scott
Matt Hogan gave me almost the exact same answer yesterday from Bitwise Similar. He said, I don't think people are ready for the fact that everybody is going to have a wallet and this is the way that we're going to interact. And hearing you say it really reconfirms that. And then I made the point. It's not just a crypto wallet. This is also going to be tokenized, everything. So it's likely where you're going to also trade your stocks and manage your portfolio and take loans and earn yield? I mean, is that the future where we can literally get all financial instrument instruments into one wallet and it will be effectively blockchain will be the underlying technology of that 100%?
- [04:54]
Sandy
I mean, this is exactly where I think we're headed. And it's going to happen a lot faster than people anticipate. Right. I mean, this isn't going to be a 10 or 20 year transition. I think that we're going to see more progress in the next five years than we've really seen in the last 50 in terms of reconfiguring the way that the financial markets work. The last time we had a period like this in our history was when they had the paper crisis in the late 1960s and they actually then invented the whole system that we've been using for the last 50 years, using the leading technology of that day, which was the computing technology. And so that's what allowed us to immobilize and dematerialize securities. That's what allowed for the creation of these centralized clearing utilities that we see like the Depository Trust Company, and that's what led to today's account based system. So what we're really seeing is the next iteration and the next evolution of the financial market infrastructure.
- [05:54]
Scott
IT's Depository Trust Company. The DTCC is very publicly testing blockchain technology. They're doing it right out in the open effectively, I think, trying not to become the next Blockbuster or Kodak or Sears Roebuck, basically disrupting themselves before they get disrupted by the industry. Maybe that leads to the second part of the question I asked before. So we obviously have stablecoin legislation coming through, which I think is probably a reflection of how all legislation will progress through market structure and all these things. Do you think that there's some unintended or intended consequences that might say, for example, choose favorite institutions over crypto incumbents, for example? Maybe.
- [06:33]
Sandy
So that's a good question.
- [06:36]
Scott
Things like that as we build this system.
- [06:39]
Sandy
Okay, so here's a couple that I'm watching from the bill, right? The first is that it's going to now draw a line in the sand, right? We have had certain stablecoins that have been acting like tokenized money market funds by offering yield to their underlying investors. If you offer yield on a investment vehicle, there is a name for that and that name is a security, right? And so, you know, people are going to have to decide which side of this divide do they sit on? Are they a stable coin, in which case they are not going to be able to pay yield under both these. Regis, these legislation rules being put forth in the Genius act and already is the rule of law in Europe with the markets and crypto assets rules, or are you going to be a security, a tokenized money market fund that does pay yield and that can act like a tokenized, can act like a stablecoin. And I think that this is going to help clarify that divide and some incumbent players are going to have to make some decisions about which side of that line they sit on. I think the other unintended or intended consequence is that they did not categorically rule out corporations being able to issue their own stablecoins or non financial entities. They simply indicated that they have to abide by the same compliance and regulatory requirements. And that could really start to change the way that we see our economy operate when you've got major corporations like Walmart and Amazon talking about potentially issuing their own stablecoins. So I think that there is a lot in this bill that is really going to caused the pace of acceleration in the industry to shift and change. And I think you're going to see a lot of brand name players now really trying to stake out some ground in this stablecoin space.
- [08:34]
Scott
It's pretty interesting when you look back at how just too early Libra was because Facebook tried to effectively do this and then obviously got absolutely destroyed on the floor. They tried to rebrand a diem and then effectively just weren't able to do it if they tried to launch that. Now, although I've already seen some pushback with them talking about it, it would probably be compliant with this rule if they did it the right way. And we would already have the Facebook stablecoin.
- [08:59]
Sandy
Right. And the potential for partnerships, right. Between the financial industry and some of these big corporate players is tremendous. Right. You know, we manage at Franklin Templeton through our Benji product. We manage a lot of stablecoin reserves. Right. We don't care if that stable coin is being issued by a corporation, by a bank, by a digital bank, by a third party entity that's setting it up as its own business. Right. We are looking to provide the management of the collateral reserve. And so it opens up a potential for a lot of partnerships and a lot of those companies may be able to outsource and use the financial market ecosystem and infrastructure that we've built and that others are building to be able to offer these stablecoins. So it could also really embed the financial industry into the new economy in a different role than we've seen in the past.
- [09:52]
Scott
That's a great segue to talking about specifically how Franklin Templeton positions as being one of the first institutions that took this industry seriously and really started to build with all of this potential legislation and regulation in this new obviously more favorable environment. One of those things you mentioned the Benji platform, but this was big news that was just released. Franklin Templeton launches patent pending intraday yield feature on Benji technology platform. So that's obviously a mouthful, but it shows that you're ahead of the curve once again on building this. How does this play into that longer term plan, the wallet that you discussed? If we know that all of this is going to come into one place and this is how people are going to interact, how do you build towards that future in a way that you know is going to be compliant with whatever legislation we eventually get?
- [10:40]
Sandy
Yeah, I mean, this is a mouthful, Scott. I agree, but this is probably one of the most consequential things I've done in my entire career. Right? That's how important what this launch was last week. And let me explain why. Right. So we know that a traditional money market fund, right, an off chain money market fund, it operates. There's three key parameters around how it operates, right? Number one, you only get to earn interest if you are a shareholder at the close of the day, right? So if you owned that money market fund during the day and you sold it before the close, you don't get any interest for that day. With a traditional money market fund today, you have that interest is accumulated and it is basically tallied up every day and it's only paid once a month.
- [11:34]
Chris
So.
- [11:34]
Sandy
So you only get paid your yield once a month. Right. And then the third aspect of how money market funds work today is let's say I had money market fund shares and I wanted to transfer them to you. That is a process that could literally take weeks. Right? I would have to fill out paperwork, like literal paperwork, not even electronic paperwork. I'd have to mail it in, I'd have to wait for a response. It takes weeks to transfer shares of a mutual fund between two people, right? What we have now done with the Benji platform is fix all three of those problems because we are creating the actual exposure to our money market fund through the token. The token is not just a digital record of our exposure. It is the actual exposure. We issue those tokens and we track every single trade that happens on blockchain. So we are able to put the shareholder record together second by second. And therefore, if you own our money market fund for 2 hours and 36 minutes during the day, you now get that 2 hours and 36 minutes worth of yield. And if you transfer those funds to me, I get them during the day, I start earning yield. The second you transfer them to me, it doesn't matter whether both of us hold those positions at the close. We can now calculate the actual way that the shareholder record changes during the day. The second thing we can do is because we issue the tokens ourselves, we can pay out yield every single day, including Saturdays, Sundays and holidays. So instead of only getting your money once a month, you get it every day. And then third, because it is a token and it sits in a cryptographically protected wallet, you can transfer it to me and I can transfer it to you at will. In fact, our Benji app, which you can download from the app Store, you can set that up and any other user that you invite into the Benji network that passes their KYC aml, you can transfer the money between them. You can transfer your tokenized money market shares just like you would use Venmo. We have really used the new technology Rails to bring the money market fund which is one of the most basic instruments in the financial market ecosystem. We've used it to bring it into the 21st century and make it look, act and operate like a stablecoin. But a stablecoin that does truly pay yield because it is a security and it is registered and it's regulated. So we're very excited about these advancements. It's really just the first time that we are really taking a big step forward in terms of applying blockchain technologies to the traditional financial markets.
- [14:23]
Scott
It's interesting because as I said, you, Fidelity, a few others we can argue have been very ahead of the curve and have building in this space. But even the slowest, I would say turtles that we've had and those who even fought it for a very long time are seemingly jumping in now. JP Morgan introduces USD Deposit token on Coinbase's base blockchain I did not have this on my bingo card in a million years that they would choose a Coinbase layer two to effectively build their own. We call it stablecoin or maybe not, but seems everybody's gotten the memo. So how do you stay ahead?
- [15:00]
Sandy
Well, first off, I think what's interesting about the JP Morgan announcement is that a tokenized deposit is a way of just making your current checking account or your current savings account into a digital record. Right? So you know, it is not really quite a stablecoin or a token. It's just creating a wrapper around your account based structure to be able to make that operate and interoperate on blockchain. So in a sense this is JP Morgan protecting their banking franchise. Remember I said with Stablecoins the money comes out of these accounts with this tokenized deposit. This is a move by JP Morgan to try and get people to leave that money in their account because that's how J.P. morgan makes money. I think that this is a defensive play and I think it's one that they're hoping can compete with stablecoins. But I just don't see tokenized deposits or tokenized liabilities, which is the other approach that the banks are taking. Really having the same traction that stablecoins and tokenized money market funds are going.
- [16:10]
Scott
To have and I guess pivoting slightly. I mentioned at the very beginning that we have had this just incredible, incredible streak. The streak's irrelevant to me actually. I mean, 1.8 billion in six days. There was like a day off between that and it was billions and billions and billions for a long streak before that. This has been the most successful ETF product launch by many multiples. It's not even close. And it seems that now as more platforms unlock this, more people get access to, it's only increasing. And that even with all the things going on in the world and all the wobbles and financial markets, seems like nothing really stops this trade right now. I mean, you've obviously participated in this from the very beginning. Where is all this interest, do you think, coming from right now and will it continue?
- [17:00]
Sandy
Yeah, in fact, I would say we're not even in the major ramp up yet. Like this is still prior to us really seeing widespread adoption. Right? So, and that's what's super exciting about this moment in time. So let me rewind for one second to when we launched these Bitcoin ETFs back in January of 24. Right. There were two kinds of buyers that came in at that time, Scott. There were institutions that kind of understood the business case and wanted exposure to Bitcoin but didn't want to go through the trust structures. And so they put money into the ETFs of big institutions that had large sums of money. And then individuals who understand crypto and who have brokerage accounts and wanted to have that crypto holdings in their brokerage accounts. It goes back to that account structure versus the wallet. Right? The big segment that was missing. Right. Where a lot of the wealth sits, in fact, most of the wealth sits is the big wealth advisory platforms. The, you know, the Morgan Stanley's, the Charles Schwab's, the Raymond James, the LPLs. All of these big wealth advisory firms, they have a different standard, right? They can't just put a brand new product onto their platforms in terms of what they recommend to their clients. And so they've had to see the track record build, they've had to see the operational processes behind these ETFs. Prove themselves out, which have both occurred, and they've had to start to see where these products fit in the portfolio. Right. So the big move in the industry has been toward model portfolios, which bring together equity exposure, fixed income exposure and alternative exposure. And these crypto ETFs are being used as a form of alternative exposure in these model portfolios. So if I give my advisor $100 and it has a 6% allocation to Bitcoin ETFs in it, $6 of that hundred dollars is going into Bitcoin ETFs every time I add money to that account. Right. So these model portfolios have just gone to emerge from the leading financial players like ourselves. And this is what is allowing the wealth platforms to now start to really put that out in front of their advisors. And this is just beginning. And I firmly expect that over the next 18 months you're going to see more and more and more of these platforms add these products. It's going to be automatic allocations every time new money comes in, in part going to these ETFs, and you're going to just see demand continue to ramp up pretty dramatically, I think for at least the next two to five years.
- [19:52]
Scott
As interesting as that is for the Bitcoin ETF specifically, it's almost more interesting that so many platforms are now offering non 6040 products, because even getting 6% alternative assets was unheard of not very long ago. I would always joke people aren't allocating to Bitcoin in their portfolio, but they're also not allocating to gold, which has been around for as long as there's human memory basically, and has never been a part of a classic portfolio, even though it's a great hedge and people love to own it. So getting that 6% and Bitcoin, even capturing a part of that, that's the bigger story to me.
- [20:30]
Sandy
Yeah. And for us, like at Franklin Templeton, we're using, we have a ETF that we've put out called Easy Peasy that is actually a mix. So every ETF we issue, so right now that's our Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, but every other single crypto ETF we issue automatically gets added on a weighted basis to our Easy Peasy multi Coin product. So, you know, this is a way to even diversify your crypto exposure. So I think we're just at the very, very beginnings of seeing this become a standard part of every portfolio.
- [21:05]
Scott
And what happens when we get beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, because obviously we've seen some movement on Solana ETFs, XRP ETFs. I think everybody views them as somewhat inevitable considering the environment that we're in. Will those, do you think, be popular? Will they become a part of these portfolio allocations? Do you think that it'll pretty much be Bitcoin?
- [21:24]
Sandy
No, I think it's going to expand. I think that this is the future state infrastructure for the industry. Each of these coins that start to get this institutional traction are going to become the new growth stocks. This is 1996 and saying, you know, well, do we think Google is going to be around in five years? Right. So these are the emerging growth stocks of our next generation. And I think that it will continue to expand beyond Bitcoin into multiple coins. And that's why we've created this easy peasy structure to be able to really include all the coins that are gaining traction in one easy to access place. But we also continue to see demand for individual coins. So I think the whole space is just beginning to emerge.
- [22:10]
Scott
Love that. And what about the other side which is taking the existing assets, our real world assets, tokenization and bringing them into this ecosystem? We talked about it obviously in context of the wallet before. So we're sort of like spreading the crypto gospel now and people are starting to buy these assets. But for that wallet that we discussed to become reality, we also need to start bringing in the entire world financial system and basically tokenizing it.
- [22:37]
Sandy
So this is where we need a little bit more regulatory clarity. And that's going to be the big unlock there. Right? So right now, to be able to distribute a securitized real world asset product, you need to have a special purpose broker dealer license. This is something that has been extremely difficult to get. Not many people have gone out to really pursue it. And there's a lot of talk now about maybe rolling back that requirement and giving the more standard broker dealer requirements to allow different crypto domains to list these securities. In fact, you saw there was an article yesterday about Coinbase working with the SEC to try and unlock being able to offer tokenized equities. Right. This is the beginning of this move. And as soon as those rules loosen up and crypto platforms can distribute tokenized funds, that's when you're going to, I think, see a wholesale rush into creating more and more product from traditional assets, equities and bonds, and model portfolios and alternative funds, private equity, private credit infrastructure, real estate, it's all going to move on chain. But we need to have the distribution ability to into wallets. And right now that's what we're waiting for the regulators to clarify.
- [24:02]
Scott
Yeah, so we're starting to see that you've obviously we've talked about tokenized Treasuries quite a bit. That seems to be maybe the lowest hanging fruit for tokenization thus far that, you know, take Treasuries, tokenize them, offer the yield. It's pretty uncontroversial and easy. Why has that been, I think the first thing that has become so popular for everybody to work on and what's next and then what will it take for a coinbase to be able to actually sell those things? Right. So we've had conversations about it before. Maybe they'll tokenize securities, but they won't be available to Americans. Right. It'll be available on international exchanges for people who don't have access to Tesla stock in Europe or something. Right. But that doesn't get us to the future that we're talking about here.
- [24:46]
Sandy
Yeah. So I think that we started with Treasuries because again, to go back to this whole idea of the money market fund and collateral, right. Is people, people like stablecoins for being able to purchase things and to be able to keep cash and move it around in the crypto ecosystem. But stablecoins as collateral are not quite as popular. Right. Because you don't know for certain what's in those reserves. You don't know how well they're being managed, you don't know the duration of the reserves, you don't know how much liquidity there is. You know, this new genius act will start to solve some of those issues. But there has been a preference for more traditional sources of assets as collateral. And this is why I think Treasuries and money market funds were the first products to really migrate into the crypto ecosystem because they are the standard products that are used for collateral in the off chain world. I do think that the next stage is going to be at the most illiquid and the most liquid ends of the real world asset offerings. So I think you're going to see more and more tokenization of ETFs and more and more use of smart contracts to manage the create redeem process, to manage some of the operational processes around the ETF itself. And then I think you're going to see more private funds being tokenized and brought on chain because you're able to use the blockchain to add a lot of operational efficiency and standardization around the data elements. The contract elements that just don't exist today in the private market. So I think that after this wave of kind of treasuries and money market funds, you're going to get these two ends of the spectrum. And as you said, the availability of equities out outside the US that seems to be a popular one as well. So I think those are, that's kind of the pathway. And again to go back to what has been preventing it has been in the U.S. what's been preventing it is this need for this special purpose broker dealer license. And if that requirement gets amended or it becomes easier to get that license, that's what's going to really open up this space in the US So we.
- [27:04]
Scott
Somehow got right up against time and I know you've probably got to go, but anything I missed that you're excited about and want to talk about. But we before I do let you go.
- [27:12]
Sandy
Yeah, no, I think we've covered some great stuff and I just really cannot emphasize how much I think we are on not, you know, anywhere close to the end of the growth cycle, but we are really just beginning to step on the accelerator.
- [27:28]
Scott
Everybody loves to hear you're still early. So it's a good way, it's a good, good way to conclude the conversation. Sandy, thank you so much always for coming. Coming on. Absolutely. I love having you here and look forward to doing it again soon.
- [27:40]
Sandy
Great. Loved being here. Thank you so much, Scott.
- [27:42]
Scott
Thanks, Andy. Amazing. It's incredible to have institutions like Franklin Templeton so passionately building and enthusiastic about the space and being legitimately early and ahead of the curve. I've been here since 2016 and it was always somewhat of meme to talk about institutional adoption. It was like this pipe dream and now we're seeing it happen in a matter of months across the board. It just makes me laugh that JP Morgan is trying to capitalize on this of all people at this point. Before I bring on Chris, obviously you're going to talk about Aptos briefly. Perfect timing because of all the stablecoin legislation. Everything we're talking about here, payments on Aptos here, $30 billion plus in monthly stablecoin volume finality in less than a second fees point. That's a lot of zeros. 55. Three native USD stablecoins. Real world payments at Internet speed are no longer theory. Aptos builders are making it real as stablecoins obviously become the core of this global trading engine that Aptos has talked about. The thing that's going to matter the most is going to be how fast cheap and secure. Moving them is obviously there's a reason that as much as people dismiss Tron, that Tron has the most tether and most stablecoin transactions because it's fast, cheap and easy. And as much as we would love for that all to be on bitcoin, people don't actually care when they're somewhere. They just want fast, cheap and easy. While Aptos is faster, cheaper and much easier and will likely be the future of payments. So as usual they're an amazing sponsor. They've been a partner of mine for a very long time. Just asked you to check out Aptos and now we get to talk about the market. Chris, it seems like we're, we're never moving, you know, $105,000 forever. People are, you know, going to lose their minds, are going to get time based capacity situation. I guess we're at 104 now though. It's pretty, pretty exciting.
- [29:31]
Chris
Well, you know, I mean the fact that we you know again are complaining when we're sitting above a hundred thousand is, is kind of silly, right? But it's the same thing we talked about coming in, you know, coming into this before we hit 100,000. You know, we had multiple conversations. We talked about how people were going to get bored and complain about sitting above a hundred thousand. At first it was oh look, it can't get above a hundred, it can't stay above 100. Now it's there and they're like oh look, it can't go any further. So I mean, you know, it's just people, it's just as human beings what we do. I don't know for me right now I'm, I'm looking at this as potentially a triangle here, potentially completed. I do like that this 100, 103,000 area here is kind of holding its support. That is the monthly pivot right there. But you know again prior to that we do have this 100,000 area down here which is you know, we had the big fair value gap here on the daily. It rallied up through it, get that low volume node and it's continuing to do work, you know, holding support there. So the way I'm watching this right now is potentially we are complete here but we need a breakout at least above wave D there which on this Bitcoin all time history index chart is 108,986 and 15 cents. If we can do that, that's going to signal, you know, and in this wave C kind of hold support here at. What is this here at 102 758. So as long as that holds a support and then we break out above the 108986 odds are triangles complete. We're going to go higher, break out above wave B up here. That's going to confirm it up there at about 110617. And then based on you know again a little price action target based on the height of this overall structure here, it gives us about 119809 target coming off that. And so you know, and then we'll get complaints up there. You know it just, it is what it is. If we do happen to come down and break down here below this 102758, two things as far as the triangle goes. One is maybe we have an A B and then we're still working on C here instead of it being complete, in which case it needs to stay above wave a here at 1 at 10430 if it breaks down below that 100,430 that invalidates the triangle pattern. And in that case I'm looking for either just a sweep of the hundred thousand area so just kind of move down then back up or if we get some real movement down through it that closes really well below it. We could potentially see this move to 94 and a half, 96 and a half area here. But that, that's about as bad as I see it getting at the moment here. So you know, really at the end of the day the movement down here would be a great buying opportunity I believe. But you know, until then, you know we got to see does, you know, do we hold here and here on this movement. But you know again sideways, right sideways since back over here May 22nd. So just about a month now that we've been doing this sideways after making that slightly new all time high there. You know, structurally we can kind of see that this area we're holding at here. I can kind of pull it up here. Ah, get off that there. There we go. Really just is kind of this area right here. Right. So you have these, these moves up in here. So you've got this resistance right here works as support right here and again support here and support here. So this is, you know a great little area to be in. We're in toward kind of the mid range upper half of that. So you know again a lot of positives looking here. We just need to see some follow through as far as bitcoin goes. Now when we're looking at other things, let Me jump over here real quick to silver and gold. So silver, I've had this target up here. I've got this as one large flat from back here back in October of 24 until the spring down here in April of 25. And so based on the height of that pullback, again, we've got a pattern target up here around 41.41.34. And so we're doing, you know, we're making some good movement headed up toward that way. So I'm liking silver. And then of course gold. Gold did. We needed a breakout here above 34, 48, 20. We got that. So again, based on the height of that pullback, we've got a pattern target up here at about 37.59.40. Now maybe complete. May just be 3 of 5. We'll find out when we get up there. I may have to come back and finagle the count a little bit, but I think we should be at least looking up there almost around 3760 for gold. So, you know, just kind of looking for things. What, what do you, you know, what do you buy in the market right now? Right. Especially when alts are just continuing to have a bit of trouble. Well, so here's Saul, right? Everybody's talking about Saul. We, we've had this trade in down here. As you can see, we did make our move up toward that 8,187dollar area. We're pulling back now. I think there's a good chance we might break down here. And if we do, we'll look down here toward this S1 pivot at about 133, 60 or so. That's about a 50% pullback on this rally. So it's a nice area to get to that would be my initial target and look for a rally up off that. But either way, what I'm looking for is a breakout above 168.36 to signal that that low is probably in and we're going to head up. If we can get down to the S1 pivot and get a reversal off there, that'll give us minimum expected wave three target up here around almost about 400 on that there. So I like, I like that setup potentially in progress here. You're just going to have to have some patience if we can get this, you know, know, bit of a breakdown here. Come on down here. Reset. Maybe RSI. Definitely reset. Stochastic RSI down here. Get to that S1 pivot which is just again, previous resistance support area there, basically. So I like that as well. Link's another one everybody keeps talking about. Again, locally, same idea. I think we've got a one and we're working on a two. Looking for this S1 pivot here. Let me see, that's going to be right there around $12 and 12 and a half cents or so against that previous kind of support resistance level there. Great area to kind of get it. Low volume node 70 and a half retracement almost. I mean it's, it's a beautiful area to get to. So I want to see if we can get that. Looks like we've got three down and then three down. So, you know, double zigzag correction. So what we need is a breakout above 15.66, 0.663 here on this chart to add confidence to that count. And what that means is locally here, then that would give us a. If we can get to that S1 pivot there, give us a minimum expected wave three target here of 30.89 and a half cents, which just kind of gets us up near this previous high up here with this larger degree wave 1. We've just had this great kind of structure as we've continued to, to develop here and, and head on. Worst case scenario, I think, is the idea that maybe this is just one large still wave two here. As you get your A, you get your B and then you get your C here. In which case we would then sweep this eight dollar, basically eight dollar and eight cent swing low and do that. So if we continue down through that S1 pivot and we continue pushing down and you're getting kind of close to that wave too. You know, I'd probably look at that maybe being what it is. And then we'll get like a wave two here to kind of sweep this low here. But if we do that, I mean this is a huge, this would be a huge reaccumulation range after a long time re, you know, accumulation range here. So this would lead to a very large move up if it were to happen. So you know, we'll see, we'll. But right now we're going to just look there locally and see if we can't get that rally up off that S1 pivot and kind of head on up through there again. Impulsive breakout and close above that descending resistance would just look really good signal that that low is probably in and that's right up there around the wave X. So again, it's just all about patience. You don't want to jump in and.
- [37:51]
Scott
Say, oh, there's nothing to do right now. Yeah, you look at these, it's like you just gotta go touch grass. Wait.
- [37:57]
Chris
Yeah, exactly. You know, but that's the hard thing, right? As traders, that's the hard thing. We don't like to sit around on our hands but you know, sometimes it is what you have to do. You know, a lot of people spent a lot of time complaining as price was rallying here on, on alts, you know, during this, this period here and they were complaining about it, you know, still heading down and it was going up and so they missed their opportunity there. Here we are pulling back and so it's just kind of continuing that same rhetoric until we start getting, you know, some, some further movement out. I, you know, I'm just a big proponent of people staying off, staying off the, you know, social media. I hate to say it but you know, if you're really trying to be effective trader, you know, and you don't have a lot of experience as it is, a lot of successful experience, it's easy to get caught up in the clickbait that's all over, you know, social media and whatnot. And you know, every time a news event comes, it's the end of the world, you know, and the market's going to do this or that. But at the end of the day, you know, as, as I've told if I talked about for years and years and years, the trend's already established. Any kind of movement you get off a news event is reactionary, it's temporary, it's knee jerk. Right. You and I have talked about it multiple times on here. You know, the, the unemployment number comes out and it's a knee jerk reaction one way or the other. And a day or two later it goes back in the original direction of the trend. And you know, but everybody gets caught up in that. Oh my God, this is happening today. This is happening today. This is happening today. And you know, it's hard to be effective as a trader when you're constantly, you know, just bouncing off what's happening on that daily news, especially if you're trying to trade a little bit longer time frame. So just remember, trends are already established. News gives you, you know, knee jerk reactions and then you know, price will revert back to whatever that trend happens to be. As far as like some other kind of alts, you know, potentially. We've got some set up here. This is cet us love those knife catches. Yeah, exactly. So you know, we've got this, this level of support and resistance right here that we kind of fell through. We're at the S1 pivot. So this is where I would look for a reversal. It looks like we've got abc, you know, ABC and then ABC or so it looks like an ending diagonal. We'll see. I'm not interested in just like buying just blindly because it's at the S1 pivot. What I teach, you know, students to do is traders to do is to. When you get to these higher time frame points of interest, in this case the, the S1 pivot here, the monthly S1 pivot on the daily time frame, what you want to do is you want to zoom into like the one hour and you want to look for maybe some reversal confirmation on that one hour. So maybe, you know, you get in here and you go, okay, well, you know, what, what are we doing down here? Are we going to get. Well, first of all, we have a bit of bullish divergence it looks like happening here, you know, so, you know, can we get like five waves up and a pullback and a breakout, you know, or something that you're. But you're looking for something on a smaller time frame that'll get you to it, right? It may come down a little bit further here. This S1 pivot here on the weekly is just slightly below where we're currently at with the S1 on the monthly. But that's a good. I like to see that when you got your monthly on your weekly pivots almost aligning, that's a very strong level. And so we look for that reversal off it. Now if you're on this one, if you can get, you know, a one or a four hour candle impulsive, break that and close above this 0.108 level. That's going to signal the lowest probably in. If you're jumping out to the daily, you know, again, you'd want to be up through these ABCs here. So like this swing high at 0.1067. So pretty much the same area, but that's what you kind of look for. A lot of them look like this though, not as far down. But you don't want to catch falling knives, you know, you want to look for reasons to enter. That makes sense. Right, here we are with Mitchie Usdt here, potentially complete here. But again, deep pullback into this. So, you know, we want to wait now if we can get a rally off here, if this can hold right here. Right. We've pulled back more than 50. That's nice. We're right down around that wave four area. So if we can get a rally up here, that breaks out above. What are we looking at here? Yeah, this one right here.0386, you know, again, that's three waves down. So break it out above. That's going to suggest that this is corrective and we're going to head up higher with this bigger account. You want to break out above, you know, 0.0659 to add confidence to the count. But again, if we can get this breakout here above this 0386, you can potentially be looking for, you know, 1, 2 and 5 waves up here around 0.0754, which is the swing high usually what we look for. We usually look for five waves up around the previous swing high. So I like to set up here, but again, you know, I don't like that we're not reset here. So we could see this continuing to fall further. And if it does, you know, 61, 8 there at 0.0259, 70 and a half said 0.7, you know, 0222, you know, 78. 6 is at 0.0193. And we have these levels because these are the, generally the levels that we look for reversals at. But that doesn't mean you just blindly buy the levels, you know, again, watch the larger time frame, look for it to hit the levels, zoom into a smaller time frame, see if you're getting some sort of reversal on a smaller time frame, something that you can confirm on a smaller time frame that maybe set you up for a much more confident entry rather than just blindly putting bids there. Unless, unless you're good with just, you know, blindly putting bids in, understanding that you're holding potentially for a long period of time, you know, maybe dollar cost averaging or something. That's fine, you can do that. But if you're not doing that, just putting blind bids in a lot of times is going to get you hurt. I don't know. You know, we got, we got Bio USDT here.
- [44:11]
Scott
I look the same to me.
- [44:13]
Chris
Yeah, yeah, basically. Now a lot of these like Bio here are actually getting close to that S1 pivot. So it's right there at the 786. It could come down a little bit lower here to whatever that is there.047. And so, but you know, at the end of the day, what you need is, you need the, the discount anyway for this one and this two, you need a breakout above wave B. That's, you know, 0.1025. But coming from that S1 pivot, that gives you three waves up here at 0.213. Three and five waves up minimally at about 30 and a half cents. So again, you know, we're making a nice little wedge here, but again, it's patience, right? It's. It's not, you know, saying, oh, I'm gonna put my bid there. And it hits, and you go, okay, now we're going up because again, you know, this could be wrong. This count could be wrong. There's always that possibility. And you don't want to, you know, set yourself up and, you know, put yourself in a bad position where you're just going to lose money that you don't have to lose because you weren't a little bit more patient and waited for a little bit more confirmation on that action. And I think that's really important because we, you know, the bottom may be in here, but, you know, we've only had one push up and one pullback. We haven't made a higher high in this overall structure here. So, you know, again, you. You want to put the odds in your favor when you're trading right here. Same kind of idea. This is HYPE USDT. This one looks like we have three down, three up in 1, 2, 3, 4. And then, you know, working on a fifth wave here. So wouldn't be surprised to see this sweep this low down here at 37.22 or so. And if. If it continues down further than that, I would ex. Generally, I think I would expect us to see a rally from around this 35, 89 area. But the idea, though, in looking at this structure here, I think is that we get a spring in this area and then that carries us up higher to new, you know, to new highs up there. $50 and beyond. So, I mean, you know, generally speaking, that's what we're kind of looking at with. With our alts. Yeah, I think that variations. But basically, you know, the. The game plan is find the higher time frame, points of interest, zoom in on a lower time frame when it hits it, look for some confirmation of some sort of reversal on a lower time frame. And at least that increases the odds of success if you can get that versus just kind of throwing a bid out there and saying, oh, my God, we're going to go up from here, and then getting caught and holding for 12 months or two years or whatever.
- [46:47]
Scott
For the rest of your life when it goes down. 99. Good times.
- [46:50]
Chris
Yeah, exactly. Exactly. You know how alts work?
- [46:53]
Scott
I do. I'm still holding a lot of them that are look exactly like that. All right, guys, give TX West Capital a follow. Obviously. Check out his channels. His show shows with Andrew and Tillman are awesome. Tillman doesn't show up for me. He shows up for you, so it's good.
- [47:06]
Chris
You know, I can say the same thing about. About Andrew. You know, he shows up in a nice shirt and everything for you. He looks like a hoodlum with us.
- [47:14]
Scott
Nice for me. I just need a better beer. All right, guys, we gotta run. We will see you, obviously, tomorrow and Chris and I next week, man. Thank you.
- [47:24]
Chris
Appreciate it.
- [47:25]
Scott
I will see y' all soon. That's DOP.