← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Massive Bitcoin Volatility Ahead! Will $31B In Options Spark The Next Rally?
00:56:32
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- [00:01]
A
A record $31 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Halloween this Friday. Meaning there could be a hell of a lot of volatility coming. Will it be the upside, the downside or a complete snooze fest as most of these situations tend to be? I'm going to unpack that and everything else happening in the market and of course update you on how amazingly well my arch public portfolio is going to. We got Andrew and Tillman. Let's do it.
- [00:31]
B
Let's do, let's go.
- [00:46]
A
Good morning everybody from not so sunny Las Vegas at 6am I'm here for Money 2020 leaving today and as you can tell we have incredible, incredible lighting in this room. Tillman told me I look like I have jaundice. To which I told him the entire room looks like it has jaundice. So it's not just me at least. But yesterday I met a bunch of people at the conference who were like we watched Macro Monday, those curtains were horrendous. So I went to the other side where you can't see the horrendous curtains behind me.
- [01:17]
B
They were all yellow.
- [01:20]
A
Yeah, I mean I do not look good. This is nuts. It almost looks like I'm in black and white. I don't know what's happening. I'm not a producer. I can't adjust the camera well for.
- [01:28]
B
Being up at 6am in Vegas after Money 2020.
- [01:32]
A
That's 6am you say. Funny story, I got up at 3:30am this morning because I popped up, I saw a text and I was like okay, I'm awake now. So I wrote two newsletters and then I did what any self respecting lonely guy in Vegas would do at 4:30 in the morning. I went down and got a cup of coffee and played craps by myself and I and had one of the best roles of my entire life. Was there for about nine minutes, hit about six points, a couple numbers and went back and wrote some more newsletters. It was amazing. So I'm having a better morning probably than everybody else who's listening. But let's talk about, let's talk about what's going on here. Obviously with bitcoin we're trading at I don't know, 14,000. Can't even see it. $616. It's a pretty good price right here at the 50 ma. Like a lot of depression for 115ish thousand dollar Bitcoin.
- [02:32]
C
The, the bitcoin pump over the weekend is often met with you know, some downside on Monday because the futures aren't open and you know, that's where the big boys play as they play when futures are trading together with you know, spot bitcoin. So the fact that it held up significantly and, and maybe even a little bit went to the upside is again it's emblematic of we're in you know, Q3, Q4, when inflows will just continue unabated in an automatic way. So you may get a pump that in earlier years was one that would be hammered pretty hard at the quote unquote open of markets. But we live in a different time now where you know, a bitcoin ETF is a well known commodity and is used by you know, millions and millions of investors at this point. So different, you know, just a shift, it's another, it's another marker in the shift of, of bitcoin price action.
- [03:34]
B
We had the largest drop in Chris crypto history last week or week before last. It triggered so much liquidation, I think 18 billion plus dollars.
- [03:46]
A
Yeah, it was 19 billion on that day and it's over 25 in the entire event if you count kind of the action after. It's crazy.
- [03:54]
B
The fact that we moved basically nothing, I mean not even 2% in the grand scheme of things I think is like Andrew's saying, incredibly bullish, incredibly strong. If you look at the chart that you just pulled up, the thing that I always look at, everybody wants to look at the price action. But just look at that red line under the price action. That's, that's, that's the.
- [04:20]
A
Movie.
- [04:20]
B
The moving average moving up at a 45 degree angle is a good sign. And as it approaches the blue line, if we've got a crossover, we're going to be looking, you know, really, really strong going into Q4 which I, I think, you know, that that engineer drop or the liquidity event that we had from 126 all the way down to 102 that, that allowed a lot of positions to be taken that now are on the books that now people want to see the price appreciate because they actually own the bitcoin and that was a lot of bitcoin. So I, I would anticipate a new pricing level to be discovered here pretty soon. I, that's my anticipation.
- [05:05]
A
The audience is saying I look like I'm in an rv.
- [05:10]
C
You live in a van down by the river.
- [05:16]
A
Yeah, that's me. I live in van down by the river.
- [05:19]
C
Some context to, you know, historical charts. Right. So there's a reminder that during the great financial crisis the The S and p bottomed at like667.7. And where is the S P today? It hit another new high yesterday at, you know, 6, 700 and change. That's a, you know, that the, the, the, the amount of capital that had flowed over that, those period of years. If you, if you map that over what bitcoin should do over the next 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 years, nothing should shake you out of your position. Like, absolutely nothing. It doesn't matter what the headlines are. It doesn't matter what the, the price action is. We've said it a bunch of times on this podcast. Every, every dip in the history of bitcoin has been for buying, literally. And so when you see downside, it's an opportunity. When you go to, you know, how badly would everybody want to get in at 107 right now when we're at 114 and change? Everybody would love to do that. You know, I post about every two or three days how of how long Bitcoin has been above 100, 100K. I think today would be the 173rd day over 100K. That's nearly, that's nearly half a year, right? That's nearly six months. Big. Just, just a massive shift in what bitcoin is and where it sits in the greater financial lexicon of, of how people see it and talk about it. There's more to go though, right? There's a lot more space for bitcoin to take up, as per your conversation with Michael Saylor yesterday at Money20 20. So Money20 20 is a huge, huge event in Las Vegas. But Saylor wasn't, you know, standing on a pedestal evangelizing bitcoin for bitcoin's sake. He was talking about debt and yield products associated with his Bitcoin stack and microstrategy. So, you know, point being is there's, there's more to go. There's more, there's more adoption to still happen. There's more understanding to still happen. A Conference Like Money20 20, you would think they would have figured it out. But if Sailor is, is sort of soft pedaling it a little bit, then, you know, there's, there's, there's more to go in terms of people that end up allocating to bitcoin as an asset.
- [07:58]
A
Yeah, it was a really interesting conversation with Saylor because as you said, he didn't focus on bitcoin. He did not focus at all on MicroStrategy stock. We just basically after giving the very quick intro as to why Bitcoin talked about strc, strk, strd and how he's created this tiered volatility debt, know credit instruments that you can just go get 10% highly liquid and not have to deal with United States treasuries. And it was really, really compelling. People loved it. I think he orange pilled and digital credit pilled a hell of a lot of people in that room.
- [08:37]
B
It's pretty compelling. And it sounds to me like what we've been talking about since day one with him is coming true. He's setting himself up as a bitcoin bank and you know it. There's so many ways bitcoin has been so powerful as a wealth creator and he's proven through multiple other speeches and presentations that Saylor's done that even the Magnificent Seven can't keep up with the performance record of bitcoin. So one would assume that there's a lot, there's a huge audience of people out there that don't care to understand bitcoin, but they understand yield and they understand debt and they understand putting large amounts of money into flywheels that play arbitrage, essentially. And I think he's appealing to those people without having to orange pill them. And no different than I think some of these big exchanges that we're going to see pop up that will be built on crypto and have crypto. I don't think a lot of people that use them, you know, even years from now will, if they don't use the crypto functionality of it and don't really, you know, investigate and learn for themselves what crypto is all about. They could be using the set of Rails without ever knowing it, and they could be buying tokenized S500, tokenized NASDAQ. And you know, there's a large portion of, I think, the world's population that will continue to be slow to adopt it, but it's integrating into the fabric of the financial system. And I think Saylor is now able to speak on tradfi principles and tradfi without going into the whole crypto thing. So just think about how flexible that type of a message can be and the fact that he can go be the keynote speaker at the bitcoin conference and get all of us excited about what bitcoin can do, but at the same time go speak to a bunch of tradfi guys.
- [10:35]
A
Excited about that. Yeah, I went up to him on the, in the press room or something. You know, a couple hours before the talk, he was staying there talking to Mackenzie from CNBC like the anchor. And I just kind of went up. I said, hey, man, what's going on? You know, looking forward to it today? And she's like, are you gonna. Are you gonna roast him? I was like, no, no, no, I'm not gonna do that. But then she was like, come on. And I was like, no. Yeah, I actually decided I'm just gonna ask him entirely about xrp. He died laughing. I was like, yeah, I'm just gonna ask him, you know, about the future of the financial system being built on, obviously, xrp, rails. And we were laughing.
- [11:12]
C
He didn't know what you were talking about, I would assume.
- [11:14]
A
But then, no, he knows. And then he said to me, actually, if we had a conversation about certain parts of the altcoin market, I think you'd find me more constructive than I was in the past. Well, I don't know if you've seen. He's. He's praised Tom Lee to some degree and, you know, I think the mentality is broadening on his side. I don't think he's going to be buying Solana anytime soon. But I do think that it's not all or nothing bitcoin, even with some of the more ardent people. Andrew, at the very beginning, you mentioned, obviously, this sort of structural bid right now, it ain't on bitcoin, it ain't coming from treasury companies. This is from our friend David Young at Coinbase. There's a whole article on it right here. But basically saying Coinbase says bitcoin treasuries are ghosting, but two firms just bought 205 million. Of course, that's American bitcoin, which is. Trump and strategy bought 390 bitcoin yesterday, bringing them up to 640,000. But when you look at this chart, that dark blue right there is bitcoin buying. It doesn't really exist from digital asset treasury companies right now.
- [12:24]
C
Right.
- [12:25]
A
I kind of asked him about that privately. I've had 10 conversations. I had dinner with James Lavish last night. I think it's fair to say that a lot of these were fly by night, not maybe prepared for the future. They all smashed, bought bitcoin with every penny they had and can't even buy dips, which is pretty freaking lame if you ask me. Every bitcoin treasury company, if it was well managed, should be doing what Tom Lee has been doing with Bitmine, which is just smashing the dip for the last two weeks.
- [12:57]
C
Yeah, Tom Lee's a pretty sharp guy. I mean, you know, he's pretty good at this. Yeah, whatever.
- [13:02]
A
And Sailor's pretty good at this. Maybe those guys are different than everyone else.
- [13:06]
C
Yeah, he's been, he's been doing it a long time. And not only, you know, is his firm as well known as, as any analysis firm on the, on the actual street, not the crypto street, but the actual street. But he was a, he was an operator at JP Morgan for, you know, almost 20 years before he started his firm. So he's the real deal. And his hair is extraordinary on top of that. So, you know, following, you know, Tom Lee's moves and then, you know, making some decisions of your own is, is never really a bad idea.
- [13:43]
A
And then the comments. Can't remember the last time Tom Lee got something right. Like, yeah, I mean, that's just the most correct person on Wall Street. He's like, he's the only. He's been the mega bull through every call for a recession or a depression. Maybe he's not right about like, bitcoin's not a billion dollars today or whatever. Hyperbolic targets. But directionally, I don't think there's anybody who's been more right.
- [14:04]
C
But his, his hyperbolic targets have all come true, except probably the last one. Right?
- [14:10]
A
Yeah.
- [14:11]
C
So over the last like eight years, he'll have a new price target. It may not meet the date and time exactly the way that he wants, but like six months later, it actually meets the, the, the, the price target. Right. So it, yeah, he's been right again and again and again and again. And, and what is his foundational philosophy? Hey, flows are not going to stop demographically. People will not stop putting money into the market because that's the way the market works right now. So it will go higher and any asset that is attached to that machine is also going to go higher. So, you know, it's, it's not really all that difficult. It's just. He's really good at talking about it. Right.
- [14:53]
B
They're thought leaders. And like you said earlier, there were a lot of, I think, imitators that maybe came into the space. Some not imitators. I think there. A lot of the treasury companies, it's just a matter of time. Like, will they survive, how they survive. I think it's tricky right now, you know, specifically some of them trading below mnav, like M Nav of ones and, and some of them trading way below an M Nav of 1:1. And you know, a lot of people look at that machine that, that sailors built and have misunderstandings about it. You know, I talk to people all day long that say, well, he's smash. Buying at the top. Why shouldn't I? They literally tell me that and I'm like, well, he, he's borrowing money to buy bitcoin and he gets to borrow the most money when bitcoin's at its highest. Do you get to borrow more money when bitcoin's at his high? No. Oh, well then you shouldn't be following what he does. He's doing it for very specific reasons. A lot of people don't know that. And I think getting into the game is a lot harder than talking about getting into the game. And you know, we look, we, I, I remember like it was yesterday, we were at the bitcoin conference, one of the years, and everybody thought Sailor was going bust. Remember it was like 17, 000 if it hits it.
- [16:10]
A
Oh, it was every price. Yeah, like 29. It was like 20 70s out. Yeah, 24 is out. 21, he's definitely out. And he was like, 3, 500, I'll start to maybe have a problem. He literally was saying it.
- [16:22]
B
And so you, you look at that story and you go, did he dodge that many bullets or is this that bulletproof strategy? And time will tell. We don't know like either. All of these other treasury companies 10 years from now are gonna make us all regret talking bad about them. And they'll be huge and bitcoin will be 13 million a coin and it will be a can't miss situation. Or it's going to take some real navigation skills to get the bitcoin company that you're running, your treasury company, where you're running, to look like sailors. And if you look at sailors history, one would tell you that you're going to have to dodge some of those bullets, maybe not all of them, because you've got some great thought leaders in front of you that you can learn from, but some of them are going to hit and trading. I don't know how many times. We need to go back and probably look at how did Saylor navigate buys during negative M nav periods? Like what, what did he do? I can't really remember, to be honest with you, because he's been on a positive mnav.
- [17:25]
C
Well, ever remember that Saylor, and this is the right way to do it, for years and years and years was simply buying, buying bitcoin with the profits associated with selling MicroStrategy stuff. So MicroStrategy was a meaningful company that created software and other things that they sold to the public as MicroStrategy. And so during that period of Time for a period of, let's just call it four to six years. He was using that revenue to, to allocate to Bitcoin, which is the right way to do a, you know, a Bitcoin strategy. It's to use other revenue, that is ongoing revenue to accumulate Bitcoin, not, you know, frankly the digital asset. Treasury companies which, you know, somehow raise money and then hope that additional money will be created out of thin air that you could buy, you know, more tokens with. That's not a great strategy. So he did it that way for a very, very long time until he found himself in a place where he could, you know, use the machine that is Wall street and the preferreds that he's created all that stuff to, to buy significantly more Bitcoin. So I it back then, to be fair, M Nav, the term didn't even exist.
- [18:44]
B
No.
- [18:46]
C
Nobody had ever heard, nobody had created.
- [18:48]
B
It, you know, well, and treasury companies didn't exist. He, you know, he created both of those coined terms.
- [18:54]
C
Yeah, yeah, he's listen again, another foundational thing. Saylor probably doesn't think of it this way, but I know that Tom Lee does is and he's mentioned it a time or two when, you know, it used to be don't fight the Fed, now it's don't fight the fink. Right. So if Larry's out there going crazy about you know, tokenization of everything, one thing that we haven't talked about that would be great to talk about is what happens to futures markets when everything's tokenized and trading 24 7. Yeah, that'll be, that'll be interesting. Like are they going to continue to exist? Like why would they exist?
- [19:32]
B
Do they exist now?
- [19:33]
C
Would be money. That's a different conversation. But, but you know, Larry's going to be using Ethereum, he's.
- [19:42]
A
And once the perpetual swap comes to like Tradfi markets as well.
- [19:46]
B
Exactly.
- [19:47]
C
Right. So, yeah. So you know, if Larry's all in and BlackRock, biggest asset manager on the planet will continue to be, then Tom Lee's like, what, what real risk am I taking here that Ethereum goes down a little bit? I mean that it's not, you know, there, there's going to be the adoption of Ethereum as a, as a, a technology and as a, and being used across the larger financial markets. He, he, he knows that's happening and will continue to happen. So he's in good spot. You know, it's don't fight the fake. So if that's his, you know, ongoing foundational thesis. Yeah, he's, he's, he's.
- [20:25]
A
Did you just make that up? I love that.
- [20:27]
C
Don't fight. Yeah, you missed it the first time because you were up at 3:30 this morning playing crap.
- [20:31]
A
Whatever, man, whatever. Don't fight to think. That's, that is so good.
- [20:38]
C
My question is, and you know, not to bang on, you know, the, the Monday Guys, is McGlone still in the spot where he thinks bitcoin's going to 10,000? I, I re, I, I want to know is, is he still there.
- [20:54]
A
Give or take 10%.
- [21:01]
C
So it may go to 11,000 then he's adjusting.
- [21:05]
A
And then by the way, we would tell him how wrong he was.
- [21:08]
C
Yeah, yeah, yeah. If it went to 11. No, no, didn't hit 10.
- [21:15]
B
Yeah.
- [21:17]
A
Oh man. It's very bearish. I don't know. He's very bearish.
- [21:23]
B
Well, listen, a lot of people are and that's what big drops like last week or a couple weeks ago do to you. I mean it's, it's, it broke all the technical charts. That, that liquidity event broke every pattern.
- [21:37]
A
Almost that everybody certainly on altcoin charts.
- [21:40]
B
Yeah, specifically. And so, you know what, what does that do? It sucks the life out of the market. I don't know if you guys feel it, but this, this week is just sapped. I mean most of the news articles are just total duds. I mean it's just like nobody wants to talk about it. Everybody's gone away and licking their wounds and you know, that's indicative to me of a bottom that's, that's, that's, that is what blood in the streets looks like. You know, where everybody's back at home healing. You know, there is no doubt that the infrastructure that the largest companies in the world are setting up will be used. That's the way I look at it. It would be no different than the, you know, the movie Build it. And they will come if there's a giant amusement park called Field of Dreams.
- [22:28]
A
Field of Dreams, yeah.
- [22:29]
B
If you, if you build a giant amusement park in downtown metropolitan, in any city, pick one, people are going to show up and want to come. They're going to buy tickets. So, you know, this is just a matter of when the park opens, how many rides open, how high you have tall you have to be to get on the ride. It's just a bunch of, you know, growing pains essentially. Essentially. But Tom Lee, I'm, I love them. And you guys forgot to mention, in my opinion, the most convincing argument that he is a genius is that he is a pudgy penguin. He owns one. He. He's proud of owning one he has.
- [23:05]
A
He looks like one for everyone.
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B
I did not say that. But Pudgy penguins forever.
- [23:14]
A
If you build it. Pudgy penguins, he'll come, everybody. That movie was great, man. James Earl Jones, that was a great movie.
- [23:22]
B
They don't make him like that anymore.
- [23:23]
A
Like you, you just. Niola Cornfield, Shoeless Joe Jackson just out there just playing. And you thought it was about him, but it was really about his dad. Yeah, there's a story about a kid and his dad got. You missed field.
- [23:35]
B
The story was all about us.
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C
Okay?
- [23:37]
A
That's right.
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B
I can watch it.
- [23:39]
A
I mean, you're talking about these institutions and this potential adoption. I mean, I don't know if you guys even saw this. IBM launches digital assets platform as crypto activity. Jobs like there's. There's no company left.
- [23:50]
C
Yeah, that was going to be doing stuff. Yeah. Once IBM gets in, which is the most stodgy old tech firm that exists.
- [24:00]
A
I didn't even know they still existed.
- [24:02]
C
Yeah. So, I mean, what, I mean, once you get to IBM, I mean, the only place that's left is like Proctor and Gamble. I mean, who else is going to.
- [24:14]
A
Johnson and Johnson cover yet? Heavy with a meme coin.
- [24:17]
C
Yeah. Right. So. So we're there. I mean, everybody's doing something. And, and oh, by the way, the shift is so big that they're kind of proud to announce it as well. That wasn't happening three or four years ago.
- [24:31]
B
Well, they're about to announce it. And even the ones that like this week has been a dead week, with the exception of one headline that we've not talking about. JP Morgan Chase allows ETH and BTC to be collateral.
- [24:45]
A
I talked to that of us. I talked to Sailor about that. Yeah.
- [24:48]
B
I mean, that's massive. Think about the private wealth division of JP Morgan and all of those people now going, if I buy some Bitcoin or Eth, I can borrow against it.
- [25:00]
A
Actually, what they're saying, all the people who work there are like, God damn it, I need to cancel my Golf round and figure out what the Ethereum is.
- [25:12]
B
Use it and you'll find out real quick and you'll have a, a different opinion depending upon when you use it.
- [25:18]
A
Yeah, that's true.
- [25:21]
C
Again, the, the JP Morgan interest in crypto. I knew at some point there would be. The dam would break in terms of, of customers demanding that they want this functionality.
- [25:34]
A
Yeah.
- [25:35]
C
Because I may have said it a time or two before on this show the ocean of ultra high net worth clients at J.P. morgan & Goldman Sachs. You can't find the size and scale at any other firm but those two in terms of ultra high net worth. So 25 million liquid or more. You can't even be a Goldman Sachs customer if you don't have that. But JP Morgan's private bank division and Goldman Sachs wealth division, they, I mean when you get big money, that's, those are the two names that you go to. Right. And so those customers and those clients are like JP Morgan figured out. Well, they may have, you know, 47 million long with us, but about 12 of the people that we work with have another 30 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum that we have nothing to do with. So we probably should make a shift there. We should probably change that. Right?
- [26:35]
B
There's, there's another interesting note asterisk to put into that. If you think about both JP Morgan specifically, but also Goldman, their primary function through IPO launches has been to lend against share value for anyone that has substantial amount of shares. And because most of the people who have substantial amount of shares have lockup agreements, they can't sell for a certain specific period of time and they need money and those banks lend against that and they take a big cut of the IPO for launching it, supporting it, going out and promoting it. And if they're, if, if there's a lot of crypto companies that are going to be going public, wouldn't you think that they would need to be able to lend against crypto assets and, and do all of the functions that they've been doing for the TradFi IPO space? But now for this new IPO craze that includes crypto being on the balance sheet that seems like they're setting themselves up to be, you know, perfectly suited for that.
- [27:38]
C
All three of us spent three days at the Bitcoin conference in the bitcoin whale space, which by the way was bigger than it ever has been. It had 2500 quote unquote VIPs and whales in there. Were there a bunch of 30 year olds in that crowd? No, the average age was like 52 or 54 in that crowd. And I guarantee you that crowd have meaningful accounts at J.P. morgan Private bank or Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. And so again, it was only a matter of time until those, those organizations said, okay, we can make more money by offering services and products associated with that type of group. So, you know, so here's the headline.
- [28:29]
B
Jumper here that we can. Breaking news, you've heard it here first. I want to hear what the, what the rate is. I want to hear what that loan package looks like because I want to compare it to other collaterals and I want to see the evolution. If it's below market, if it's below incentives. What, what is it?
- [28:51]
A
You know, I don't know, but it's going to be, I can guarantee it's going to be below. Like the crypto native lending now, I think, you know, we kind of have 8 to 12% floating rates. I don't think it'll be 4 or 5 like securities lending, but I think it'll be 6 or 7 if I had.
- [29:07]
C
Yeah, it'll be below.
- [29:10]
A
Or it'll just be blended with your securities. And I mean, that's how they do securities anyways. Right. It's a different rate depending on how they deter. Like if you're, if you're riding like a 3x Nvidia short ETF in your portfolio, you don't get the same rate as Proctor and Gamble.
- [29:24]
B
That's a great point. Yeah. So they'll just rate you based upon the, the weighted percentage that you have in your port.
- [29:29]
C
It's the jp. It's the JP Morgan bid though. Right. So their assumption is, is that more people will bring these assets to us because they know if the world comes to an end, the one bank that won't go down is J.P. morgan. Right. So I can trust that. You know what JP Morgan versus Coinbase will. I take six and a half percent versus nine percent. But I know if the, if things go to absolute that, you know, J.P. morgan's still going to be standing, you know, on, on the hill of banking. Yes.
- [30:01]
B
Well, but to Scott's point is most of those guys have much lower rates because they're all in, you know, bonds.
- [30:08]
A
And pretty, pretty, you know, you get much better rates. Yeah.
- [30:13]
B
And so theirs is going to be even less of a hit. It's not even going to be a conversation. They're going to move it this much because their exposure to crypto is going to be between, you know, 3% and 5%, let's call it. It's going to be insignificant to start, which is great. That's what we want, you know, know, we want people going. Yeah, sure, let's, let's put three.
- [30:33]
A
Drew's asking if you think they'd bail out banks like JP Morgan. Yes. I don't even need to read the rest of you have. Yes, yes. Too big to fail is a, is a real thing. And I don't know if you know, Coinbase. Coinbase gets that benefit of the doubt. Right. But J.J.P. morgan certainly will, so we'll see. I don't know if you guys saw this, but actually yesterday, this, I kind of missed it because I was doing money 2020 things. But there's Solana ETF was approved. Yep. With staking HBAR ETF, apparently HBAR went up. That's a thing that goes up in this world. Litecoin approved. Like, it's at Litecoin's awesome.
- [31:15]
C
Litecoin ETF is beyond me. I mean, I. I don't. I have no idea. I want to meet.
- [31:20]
A
I used to mind, like, okay, Boomer, Litecoin's hot with the kids. It's like six, seven.
- [31:31]
B
Back then, I didn't know if you all knew the reference. I was gonna point it out, but no, I'm cool.
- [31:37]
A
I'm here. I'm Steve Buscemi with the skateboard here.
- [31:42]
C
How are you doing, fellow kids? Yeah, I mean, heck, Litecoin's founder was like, yeah, I wouldn't. I really wouldn't do Litecoin again. I just buy bitcoin.
- [31:57]
A
He said that? Yeah. But Lifeboy does have a pretty cool privacy layer, and that's a very, like, compelling thing. You know, mimble, nimble, wimble, whatever that you know all these things. But I interviewed Charlie. Yeah, but you're not as honest as it gets.
- [32:10]
C
You're not getting privacy when you're. When you're investing in a Litecoin etf. Like, it's not.
- [32:16]
A
It doesn't have mimble wimble layer built in.
- [32:19]
B
Let. Let's look at zcash as an example of what.
- [32:22]
A
But that's. How you say privacy is a thing right now.
- [32:24]
B
Dead coin. That was completely off everyone's radar. And I don't know whether. Scott, do you know if it was tied to the whole knots, you know, bitcoin core debate or.
- [32:37]
A
No, I'm gonna be honest. I've had some conversations about it here. I don't really know, but I think just like, basically a bunch of influencers are like, what's some dead. We can buy a lot of and pump a lot of it.
- [32:47]
B
Seems like it. Yeah. 360. If it went from 50 bucks to 360 bucks in, like the last eight days or I mean, some short.
- [32:54]
C
Yeah.
- [32:54]
A
I mean, here's a compelling chart.
- [32:56]
B
Yeah, there you go.
- [32:58]
A
Cool. Zcash, the future of money. Yeah. I don't know.
- [33:04]
B
You know, it's inferior Monero, just FYI.
- [33:11]
A
It's whatever. Before we start talking about what I actually want to talk about, which is the algos got a few stories here. French considers Bill to accumulate 2% of Bitcoin total supply and establish a bitcoin strategic reserve. It actually has a lot more stuff, stable coins supporting it. It's not going to pass. What are the chances? None. But the fact that this is now being proposed in countries like France shows you sort of the tailwinds or the inevitability of seeing this everywhere. As the United States talks about it more and of course as the United States just actively steals it from other countries, you know, like Cambodian, Chinese, criminals.
- [33:54]
C
United States for its history, aren't we thinking about it the right way? You know, the United States has been in the business of conquering for a very, very confiscating.
- [34:06]
B
Guys, it's not stealing, okay?
- [34:08]
A
The government.
- [34:09]
B
You confiscate things.
- [34:11]
A
No. Yeah, you take claim. It's like you plant your flag in their 127,000 bitcoin and say this land belongs to the United States. Should we talk about how amazing things are going?
- [34:24]
C
Yeah, for sure.
- [34:26]
B
Yeah, we're pivoting.
- [34:27]
A
I know. I told you guys and this is whatever my priority is not a cash balance in my account that is up. I want to accumulate a lot more coins. And my baseline was smash buying at 125,000. And I will remind you that I Smash bought over 30% of my portfolio over 121,000 because I wanted to get it going. That said, my Robinhood account here, although minimally it's up, which is just crazy with how far down we're trading on the three assets that I'm using, obviously Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. Let me dig into this. And what's also crazy, So I added 50 grand. So this is a $150,000 portfolio up slightly. But what's crazy about this is like I think a week ago or something I was back down to like eight grand cash.
- [35:20]
B
Yeah.
- [35:21]
A
And I was like, damn, I'm going to definitely add some more. And the guys were like, hold up, watch this. And Now I'm at $26,000 cash because it bought the dead ass bottom of Solana and Ethereum again and then sold it to make me more cash. And in the meantime, you can see right here my average Cost on Solana 18673, it's trading at 201. Made a total return of 1600. There's the Equity Ethereum average cost, it's under 4000. At 39.37 it's currently trading at 4140 total return that and this is with it selling a bunch. And of course my basis on Bitcoin is 115,634 because half the Bitcoin that I bought was like 121. So that'll show you how exceptionally well it's actually performed like under 110. But the best part is that now when I get bitcoin dips, it's using the cash I made from Solana and eth to buy.
- [36:14]
C
Yeah. Point being is you're not having to add more cash. The algorithms are creating that cash on your behalf that then can be used to buy more bitcoin. It's an extraordinary.
- [36:24]
A
And here's the Salana. Like, I mean it's just, it's almost comical. I don't know what kind of magic wizardry but like it like I just wake up, I'm like, oh, made some money. Oh, bought some stuff. Oh, made some money. Oh, bought some stuff. And this is in like a really kind of boring range after a dip.
- [36:40]
B
Yeah. So that's the point is that it takes trades when the trades can be taken and most of those trades have, you've got to sit there and pay attention to the market at a very intense level to do the calculations needed to, to take them. And so the, the yield harvesting that can be accomplished when prices are in kind of boring trending channels or rounding bottoms can be exceptionally powerful because especially on the rounding bottom side, you know, when you, when you have a big crash like we saw, obviously whatever you bought up here, you're, you're in a loss on. But typically big, big crashes are followed by bounces and so whatever you bought down here averages out and you're in profit on. So there's a lot of cases where you can have a big crash but because you have a disciplined approach and you're not smash buying with a hundred percent of your capital. Yeah, you smashed bought with 20% of your capital at the top. But that's, that's okay. You believed in your heart. Part of that decision that you made was when, when you ask yourself, well, how quickly do you think these assets could go up if your answer is they could rocket 40% in the next two months. Well, guess what, you got to put your money where your mouth is if you believe that. And you've got to have some exposure. Right. And so that some exposure is, you know, 20 to 30% of your capital stack.
- [38:07]
A
And it should be also noted that like there's no fees on Robinhood, but I'm paying a relatively high spread and we're working through that with them because they, like I should be at a much better tier, the volume, than we've been doing. Just being totally transparent with everyone. And they're fixing that because I, because of the API, it didn't automatically put me to the other tiers. And this will be for everyone. So actually this performance would be probably a percent, give or take better.
- [38:31]
C
Yeah. You know what I find compelling about that?
- [38:33]
A
But that said, Robinhood did not go down and did allow us to buy those bottoms when nobody else could do it on any other exchange. So maybe I'm actually outperforming because they don't have an order book that's getting smashed through. They're sourcing that liquidity. So I think it actually ended up being a net benefit, if we're being honest.
- [38:51]
C
Well, that, that chart showed the last three cells on Solana. Look at the candles that they sold on. Right. So those are, those are, those are significant up candles at the top of those candles. You know, when, when Solana went, you know, popped on the dip and then trundled along, then popped again, then moved along, then popped again. And each time you're taking advantage of that, no matter if it's 2 in the morning in Las Vegas or if it's 4 in the morning in Tampa. Right. It's just doing the work for you.
- [39:23]
B
And I hate to say it, but I mean, those candles are ripe for taking some profits. Look how low the volume is on them. Like you don't like when you have big price movements on low volume to the upside. That's a good, that's a good time to think about how, how much you could take off the table to alleviate some of the risk of a collapsing price off of little volume and big price movement. Like that's, that's a natural thing that if you're not sitting there paying attention and like I said earlier, doing the calculations, it's. It's pretty much no one does it because it's a pain. It's really hard.
- [39:59]
A
Honestly though, like I said this before, if this is eth, it's obviously probably exceptionally well. Like if it literally just was smart enough to buy the clothes on a down candle and sell the top of, of an up candle, you'd still do so much better than a human without even the extra parts because it would prevent you from fomoing and at least you'd be there at the moment when it closed and you had some confirmation.
- [40:25]
B
Well, you're in profit at the bottom on some of these charts. Like, wait until there's a decent recovery, you know, then. Then you'll see over a larger, you know, sample size of time. This type of a strategy starts to shine like nothing else. Why? Well, because it's compounding on compounding, and it's compounding at a rate that is very fast. It's a look at the frequency of trades that are taking place. Yeah.
- [40:52]
A
Quickly. I wanted to show this. I would love to launch Arch Public, but I'll never get the guideline like Scott gets from this company. That's what I'm afraid of. I'm a newbie to trading. I want to be very clear. I did not get special preference or treatment. If you are a concierge customer, you will get the exact same as me. And it was me who set my algorithms to buy really aggressively right before the biggest dip in history. They did not tell me to do that. In fact, like, they will not give you, like, guidance on the very, very specifics. They're not financial advisors. But you can say, hey, what's Scott got set up? And you guys can do it.
- [41:31]
C
Yeah.
- [41:31]
A
Yeah.
- [41:31]
B
Well, we're going to.
- [41:33]
A
I can go through. I actually have. I gotta find it. I have somewhere in our email a PDF of my exact setup.
- [41:39]
B
Yeah, you do.
- [41:39]
A
Right. I asked you guys to send that to me. I know. I've got that. Let me know.
- [41:43]
B
Yeah, you have it. And you can go in and tweak it. And we're our. Our job is to teach you how to use the software. And I will correct you on one thing you said a minute ago. We will give you the same level of service whether you're a concierge customer or whether you're using it for free. We want you to take trades with the software. We want you to see what you've been missing out on as it pertains to automated trading and you setting up your. Your preferences and your exact wishes so that they can then be executed when you're not sitting there paying attention and having to monitor the market. That's what our goal is. And so even if you have no. No interest in moving into our concierge division, call us, let us help you set up the free product, our free version, and you can run that indefinitely, absolutely no cost. And you can see exactly what we're so excited about. So, you know, we're going to give you as much service as we gave Scott, even if you don't buy anything from us.
- [42:43]
A
Yeah, I'm trying to find I'm trying to pull it up here, but it's really hard on one little laptop. I did it.
- [42:49]
C
Yeah, we have, listen, we, we have to give you a little, you know, peel back the curtain. Since you've been running your portfolio, we have a lot of people that are calling up and say, hey, just give me the milker. Right. And we're happy.
- [43:03]
A
Sometimes my wife says that.
- [43:06]
B
Well, speaking of the milker. This is the milker. So let's look at this. Scott wanted to set up a video.
- [43:12]
A
Can you see it? Like I can't. Yeah, we do. I need to zoom.
- [43:14]
B
No, no, that's perfect. So let's look at. This is Solana Daily arbitrage strategy. Every entry Trade, it purchases $2900 when the price drops by 2.5%. Exit trade sell 1300 when price rises by 2.1%. Very easy. So if you say, you know what, I'm not getting enough trades here, I want to get more trades. Well, you would move that 2.5% to 2.3% and you get more trades because it's smaller, it's a smaller hurdle for it to reach for you to trigger that event. Same thing.
- [43:50]
A
That has to be a 2.5 drop on a. Like if we're looking at the six hour on a two handle. Right.
- [43:57]
B
Need our.
- [43:57]
A
But I've got it right below on the 6 hour too, so I can buy more 2.5. It has to be within that 6 hour period and on the close.
- [44:04]
B
Bingo.
- [44:05]
A
So it's got to be a pretty bad candle.
- [44:07]
B
So what you do is, is you can triage, you can set up one for 24 hours, but let's say a price swing happens in 24 hours and then it recovers within that 24 hour period. Well, that won't trigger an event in that 24 hour candle because it didn't close below the trigger. Above the trigger then. But you could set up multiple instances on different time frames. If you set one up on the six hour candle, well, maybe that one did trigger because it closed below the the threshold. So there's a number of ways whereby, which you can layer these to create exactly the frequency of buying that you want. But the important thing to note here is look at how much you're buying. So you're buying 2900 and you're selling 1300. So you have a, you have a greater than 2 to 1 bull bias is what I would call it. You're leaving more than half on the table.
- [44:59]
A
But if it keeps going up, I still get the opportunity to sell more as opposed to just unload, loading the whole trade up 2.1% or whatever. Okay, yeah, that's right.
- [45:09]
B
But that available cash that you have in your account right now, I can't remember, what is it, like $29,000?
- [45:14]
A
Yeah.
- [45:14]
B
Let's just say you wanted more cash. Well, then you could bump. You could lower that 1300, right. So that you left more cash. And so you. Excuse me. If you wanted more cash, you'd raise the 1300 so that you would harvest more and that number would be higher than it is. And so if you're looking at your buying strategies over the last three weeks or however long you've been active with this, this batch, you could say, okay, I want to speed this up a little bit. A little bit, or I wish I had a little bit more. More cash. Through next cycle of events, you can tweak it very, very easily across every single strategy, and you get that specific result that you're looking for.
- [45:52]
A
Right. It's awesome.
- [45:57]
B
But these are all the strategies. So you're running a lot. That was because.
- [46:01]
A
Hey, guys, am I being transparent enough? Showing people. Showing people exchange accounts on a live stream? I've literally gone from. I won't say the word, but as you know, from Tropic Thunder, never go full read.
- [46:14]
C
Yeah, yeah, that's correct.
- [46:16]
B
Yeah.
- [46:17]
C
Again, the most compelling thing to me that you've said in the last 10 minutes is I was down to 6,000 in cash, and then almost immediately, I had another 20,000 in cash based on what the outgos did.
- [46:29]
A
It should also be notable that, like, when I asked about it, this is like a historic dip that I started 12 minutes before. Right. So, like, we are, we are. We're going through, like, not what would be considered the normal conditions of how this. This would operate. So I'm still generating cash through the worst liquidation event in crypto history.
- [46:50]
B
Correct? Correct.
- [46:51]
C
Yeah.
- [46:52]
B
But that's yield farming. Yield farming doesn't care where it goes. It just cares that the thing shakes like a rattlesnake tail.
- [46:58]
A
Right.
- [46:58]
B
That's what you want. And so all of this volatility that's happening, you either, whether it's up or down, you have events taking place, and those events are in profit if you set the parameters to. To not sell below your cost basis. So every time you have a selling event, you know you've made money on it, and you know you've made the ratio of money on it that you've set up two to one, three to one, one half, you know, whatever you Want. It's. It's. It becomes an exercise of you imposing your will on the market. And when that starts to trigger without you having to sit there and do it yourself, it's the most empowering feeling from a market control perspective that I've ever gotten my hands on.
- [47:39]
A
And what's funny is because of my aggressive smash buying at the beginning, which was just bitcoin, basically. Mostly. Actually, it was a bit of everything, but mostly. My cost basis is 15 6. We're right at 154 now. So I haven't even actually triggered any of the selling arb on bitcoin, which is the largest position. So if I had not done that, I think we'd even be seeing some wilder performance here.
- [48:05]
C
We're. We're walking through what so many of our customers ask us. Well, you know, how does it perform in a bear market? How does it perform in down markets? How does it perform when we're at the top? I'm nervous that we're at the top. So should I do this? Should I do that? This is a case study in it doesn't matter how or when you use our tools. You're better off if you use the tools. Forget about timing, forget about circumstance, forget about all that stuff. You are better off if you use our tools, period. Full stop.
- [48:38]
B
Yeah, it would be. No. And it's so obvious and to that. That we're giving the product to you for free so that you can see that. It would be like if you were trying to hand dig a swimming pool in your backyard with a shovel. And we showed up with an excavator and said, hey, look, these little joysticks, you can move around, and this whole hole will be dug in the day. And you go, no way. And I say, well, hop up in there and try it. You take your first scoop of soil, and you're like, sign me up. I'm. Throw the shovel away. I don't need this anymore. You know, that's. It's very empowering and eye opening.
- [49:12]
A
I mean, Salado was like, 2:30 when we started or something. Youth must have been. I'm looking. You had to be like, pushing five grand. I was like, 40, 45. It might have been 47 or something like that. So I'm gonna go. I'm gonna do the math at some point. But I. There's no way I would have. Like, I haven't done the exact math, but there's just no way that I would have, you know, 0.77 Bitcoin, 3.76, Ethan 104 Solana. Right now, if I had come anywhere close to Smash buying right then, which.
- [49:46]
C
Of course, well, especially by the way.
- [49:49]
A
It'S not just like a convenient benchmark because we were making a new all time high and everybody thought we were going straight to 150. So like it's good to go back in hindsight be like, yeah, you got the great dip to buy. No, I was one of those dudes like, I gotta get this thing in now or it's not going to work. Because 135 next week.
- [50:05]
B
Right now if we pop to 150. Right. So it's doing exceptionally well under the worst conditions. What do you think it would do under the best conditions? Right. It just. Volatility yields. That's the whole point of it. I think one thing to point out that shouldn't be lost here is that Scott is not the most focused individual I have ever.
- [50:27]
A
That's an insult crossing my life. That's an honest. That's an unfair assessment.
- [50:33]
B
All I would say is, is that you, you are. You're kind of like ADD or adhd, whatever it is. And you're the busiest human I know. No, you're in. You're literally flying all over the world. How hard do you think it would be for you to manage 12 strategies both buying and selling if you didn't have this sitting there doing. You couldn't. Is the point you would.
- [50:55]
A
I can't manage brushing my teeth on time.
- [50:57]
B
Yeah, that's my point. Is this.
- [51:00]
A
Yeah, yeah, it's awesome. Yeah, yeah, it's. It's wildly outperforming people. There's a million questions in the. Luca's in the comments. So I guess he could just answer questions for everyone that obviously watches the show. But is there like, is there a minimum amount you might want to stay over for better trading? No, no, no.
- [51:19]
B
It's all relative.
- [51:21]
A
It's all relative to the size of your portfolio. And by the way, that's good because some people think that, oh, I've only got 1000 bucks, I should lever up 10x so that I've got 10,000 bucks. This will steadily make you more money and get your portfolio up to where you need it to be without being the falling into the leverage trap and doing it right. So no, there's no amount, but yes, you're not going to bring in a thousand dollars and be worth 100 grand next month doing this.
- [51:50]
C
No. Yeah.
- [51:53]
B
You would do manually.
- [51:55]
A
Right.
- [51:55]
B
And that, that's what it is. It's about being available and it's about doing a lot of calculations and being disciplined. Software does that. And so when you tell it to do something and the market gives an opportunity for that to be done, it.
- [52:08]
A
Qualifies for that event.
- [52:10]
B
There isn't a person sitting behind that button going, do I feel good? Am I tired? Am I at the computer? It doesn't. And it's your execution based upon what you want to have happen again. It, it's until you see it. But if you're trading a thousand dollars, $10,000, even 20, $30,000, unless you're trading exceptionally aggressively, you can use our free product with no cost and, and you absolutely can put that money to work. That's the whole point of our free product, is to help people who can't afford the product still get access to it and help them get into crypto in a way that's better than just them emotionally buying in and selling whenever they, you know, are emotionally needing the cash.
- [52:57]
A
I'm going to be honest, if you criticize me and told me I had add in the time since you've done that, I realized that I brought my charger over, but not plugged it in. So I plugged in my charger. I responded to a text from my wife about a hotel reservation, and then I responded to a landscaping guy.
- [53:20]
B
Yeah, think about it.
- [53:22]
A
The best part about my new studio, the best part about my new studio that I'm going to be in, where I'm sitting at like a news desk with a huge screen, is I won't have the distractions. I won't available readily available. But I do now know the 10 best hotels in the place that we're likely going skiing this, this winter.
- [53:41]
B
And by the way, if you do call in for customer support, 90 plus percent of our employees were customers. They have a lot of empathy for, you know, how little, you know, a lot of folks know about crypto. They have a lot of empathy about people being tech savvy or not being tech savvy. You have no fear of reaching out and at least getting to know some of the support staff that we have, because they're some of the most exceptional people I've ever met, honestly. So we just spent a time up here together, you know, setting our course for 2026. And I don't think there was a person there that would say that they didn't leave exceptionally refreshed and excited to serve people exceptionally well. So put me to the test.
- [54:27]
A
Call us and let's.
- [54:28]
C
Yeah, I would say I would agree with all that, except I didn't necessarily leave refreshed. I drove back about an hour before I got home. I had to pull over to the side of the road and I threw up. So I don't know what that says about, you know, the five at the meeting, but, you know, that did. That was a real thing that did happen.
- [54:50]
A
Yeah, I'm reading the comments. I just want to know which one of us is the word. We can't say. Pretty sick of this. Re running his mouth and always chilling.
- [54:59]
C
Why watch right then?
- [55:00]
A
Why chilling? Is is playing product? Is that chilling? Who is is Flame is the new hotel rapper with the song 6:7 is lame. I don't know, man. Anyways, we've done it. Hey, guys, the portfolio's up and the market's down. Okay, Are we done here?
- [55:31]
B
That's the tagline right there.
- [55:34]
A
Cool, cool. Glad, glad, glad, glad we had that conversation. All right, guys, now we gotta run, because now I have to go post Twitter spaces, which I will not at all be distracted during. I am, however, seeing a lovely sunrise over the mountains of Las Vegas out the window now, but I'm still yellow. So we'll be back, obviously, next Tuesday to do this. Once again, I might be in my new studio, which might mean I can't do my taxes while you guys are talking about never fight the think. And so, you know, quality is going to improve many multiples. Andrew Tilba, thank you, guys, as always. Great show and great insight. And, guys, it works. The thing works. So check it out. Thanks, guys.
- [56:14]
C
See you.
- [56:14]
B
See you, guys. Let's do. Let's do.