← The Wolf Of All Streets
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Bitcoin may be shaky right now, but the bigger story is what's happening underneath the surface. Today we're talking about France's first on chain ipo, the IMF openly mapping out the future of digital money Coinbase moving closer to becoming a trust bank. And why oil inflation pressure, job numbers and private market stress could matter a lot more than people think. We're about to get into it for the Friday freestyle. It's me, solo. This is just a preview of what I'm going to look like on Yahoo. Finance every single day with what will, of course be the largest crypto show on mainstream media. Let's go. Let's do. What is up, everybody. Happy Friday. Please give that little, like, button a tap and subscribe to this amazing channel because frankly, it's the best. And that's not my words. I actually just happened to see that we had, like, one comment today and it's, this is the best crypto channel. And so I'm not spreading fake news or fud. There is at least one person out there in this world who believes that that is the case. So before we get started talking about all the nonsense that is in the news today on this beautiful Friday, April 3rd, I have a very special announcement right here. I will be participating in an Incredible webinar on April 9 at 4pm, which is F R E E free with my good friends at Abra. I'm actually interviewing Bill Barheit, the CEO of Abra, once again in a couple hours today. That will be out on Sunday, but they're doing this webinar, which I will actually be participating in myself with Bill and Managing Director Marissa Kim. Him, Crypto Portfolio Strategies and Investing for the fourth turning. This is purposely and accurately ominous for many who believe that that is what's coming. But this is everything you need to know about custody, leverage and portfolio positioning. Obviously, as I've told you many, many times, I am a customer of Abra. They've helped me endlessly over the past few months and years with things as challenging as getting mortgages. And it's hard to even tell you how amazing they've been and how excited I am to participate in this and be there. So I highly encourage you to go down into the description. It's right down there below. I mean, you can do it. It's not hard. And sign up and you can come talk to me on Zoom next week. That's at 4pm on April 9. That's Eastern Standard Time. So I guess we can start today by taking a very quick look at the market. I mean, I mean, there is just nothing doing in this market right now. What do we got? Bitcoin here, 666,682. We were excited yesterday when it broke above 68. That was a good day. We were depressed hours before that when it broke down into the 65s. But I think the reality here is that when you take a look at the bitcoin market, we are largely doing nothing. Altcoins highly correlated in their nothingness. Right. And no surprises there. I don't think we're gonna jump right here into the bitcoin chart, as you can see. I think it's worth at this point just zooming out on the weekly to see what's happening. There's a line, it's at 74,000. You're either above it or you're below it. You're either with us or you're against us. Right now it's against us because we got up there and we played just the tip with that line a couple of weeks ago and we just stuck it right. But just the pinky, you know, we couldn't get the whole candle all the way up into there. I'm going to get so fired from Yahoo. I'm not going to do charts there. I just decided it, we're not going to do that. So anyways, you can see though, still trading above the 200 Ma here on the weekly. That is a line that has been visited in every single bitcoin bear market. And if you don't think that we're in a bitcoin bear market right now, you're kind of coping. Right. I mean, we have had these long drawdowns in the middle of a quote unquote bull market before, but this has been pretty ugly. And the macro around it's not great. If I had to tell you what I think is going to happen, probably this and you know, call me in six months. I think maybe it'll be more volatile than that. You know, like maybe, hey, well, oh yeah, we break it. Yeah. And then, oh my God, we broke down. And then it'll do this. And then as you know, it always does this. My favorite chart pattern. Okay. Anyways, that's my favorite chart pattern and I think that that's probably what bitcoin price is going to do. For now, though, I think we can largely expect it to stay sideways. We do have some breaking news today in the economy, which I always find interesting. We have the US economy adds 178,000 jobs in March. Crushing expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% below expectations of 4.4%, marking the biggest monthly job addition since March 2025. That's a year ago, much stronger than expected job report amid the Iran war. So there's a few ways to parse this. First of all, good jobs usually means bad for market because we live in the upside down. And if people are getting jobs, it's apparently really bad for stocks because it means the Fed is even less likely to cut. And if you take a look now at the Fed dot plot, you know that people aren't really even pricing in these cuts anymore. This year. Some people think we might get one or two very small cuts. But right now with the war and still tariff uncertainty, there's still tariff uncertainty here, you know, a year after we had the shock last year in April. And we just don't know how to parse all this data, which we'll add to a lot of the data later. But more importantly, if you guys remember every single year or we get a massive revision down in all of the job numbers that we saw for the entire year before, it was like 800,000 years ago. Over a million jobs this year. So we, we look at these job reports, we get really excited and oh my God, it's so bullish. People have jobs and then while you're not looking, they rug pull you and change the job numbers entirely. And markets have been reacting the whole time to all of this basically fake news about jobs. And you can say that that's either a political tool, I doubt it. I think we're just really bad at data. So when I take a look at my sourcing for job numbers, this is where it is. I made it up. That's the source for government data right now. And you might remember that we also just stopped doing government data for a while last fall when we had the government shutdown. And then even when the government started back up, the administration was like, we're not really going to give you the numbers anymore. Right. And so I think when you take a look at all of this, you just have to assume that this is just noise. All these job numbers. Next month it'll be way down, there'll be a revision you don't see, or the numbers will go up and nobody's going to really care. I think right now all of these kinds of data are somewhat meaningless until we get some resolution of the operation that we're having in Iran. Meanwhile, do you guys remember Bitcoin? Treasury companies? I remember. You might remember that one year ago, right around this time, I went to the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas. And within five minutes of walking in, I was pitched about 17 of these things. And I was the least popular person in the bitcoin world when I very openly, for the next six months, said, these are a really bad idea. You can not financially engineer a balance sheet unless your name is Michael Saylor. To beat Bitcoin using Bitcoin. Now maybe you can beat Solana using Solana by staking or beat Ethereum using Ethereum by using staking. Whether those are viable treasury assets is up to you to decide. I think Bitcoin is a great treasury asset, but only if you are going to take cash flow from your business and use it to buy Bitcoin the same way you would tell an individual to hedge against their cash position or against inflation or against monetary debasement. You can choose your catchphrase, but I think you should take a bunch of your money and put some of it into Bitcoin and save it for a really long time. And that's how Bitcoin treasury companies should do. But instead, Bitcoin treasury acted like complete redacted momos and YOLO'd into literally anything they could find at the dead top of the market. Like, I have nothing against any of them, but like if bitcoin was 120,000 and someone gives you a billion bucks, I don't know, use Arch public in dollar cost average instead. They all bought everything and didn't even save any money with no plan how to even make more money for when Bitcoin was 50% discounted from the price that they bought it at. And what are they doing now? You might have noticed it kind of passed in the news very quietly. Nakamoto, of which I am still a small shareholder, very proudly. Holy. Let's talk about redacted momo. This guy. I bought that. I was like, we're at a buck, dude. It's under the price that the investors paid. It's gotta be good. I can't even imagine where it's trading now. 14 cents, 25 cents. I have no idea. I haven't even checked. But they sold Bitcoin at these prices. And that's what happens when you go all in at the top and you don't have a plan and you have a business to run. You end up selling some marathon. Famously followed in the Michael Saylor footsteps by raising convertible notes to buy a whole lot more Bitcoin and become a bitcoin treasury company and sold off like 30% of their stack last week. Right. A lot of that has to do, obviously, with funding operations, converting to AI. We know that no bitcoin miner wants to just be a bitcoin miner anymore. They all want to be AI data centers or whatever the catchphrase is that we're using now. But the reality is that we had yet another stupidity bubble in bitcoin that absolutely wrecked retail, pissed people off and made us look like idiots. It's awesome. It's awesome. Thank you, bitcoin treasury companies. You've done great. You're all really performing very well. That said, maybe there's an opportunity to buy some of these at a discount. I would love to see Saylor just vacuum these up with all that money, sweet, sweet dollars he's making on strc. But I don't think that's their plan or the reality. But yeah, we're going to see if this continues to go for six months, we're going to see a hell of a lot of small sales, at least from these Bitcoin Treasury. This says even government sovereign holders liquidating to shore up balance sheets. But the good news is these are bottom signals and not top signals. But this is really cool. Europe's first blockchain IPO is here. France's new exchange is taking aerospace firm public on chain. This is what I would love to see in the United States, to be quite honest. So what we have here is a French exchange taking an aerospace company public fully on chain. These shares can be issued, traded, traded and settled with blockchain rails. So this is tokenized equity that's moving from concept to live capital markets. Obviously we have IPOs and direct listings in the United States. That's the way that most companies get public. And then we've had ICOs and private sales and all the things that largely United States investors could not participate in because Gary Gensler hates you and so does Joe Biden. And they wouldn't let us do anything fun. Maybe they did protect us because what a shit show all those were. Love Gary Gensler. I feel protected. Anyways, this is what we actually want, right? Regulated companies being able to raise and go public, but using blockchain rails and issuing tokenized equity that way. So this isn't like they're launching a token. Maybe we'll be able to get tokens someday. This is actually shares that are tokenized using our technology to do this in a much better way. And I'm here for it. I think that this is really exciting and, and it's showing US a glimpse of the future once again. Does that help you as retail? Probably not. Like, it's not like this is going to make your chainlink position go up. It's probably bullish for XRP if you ask the XRP army in some way. I don't know. But otherwise, yeah, tokenization is the future. I mean, you got the IMF here, who by the way, is like the evil empire. Darth Vader times 12. But hey, let's cheer for them because they said crypto tokenization is reshaping regulated finance by moving assets onto programmable ledgers, delivering efficiency gains, but requiring strong policy and trust anchors to protect stability. That's the part that you should actually be reading. The first part is like they stated the obvious by using an AI and then they wrote their own little part, which is like, we need to regulate and control this on the back end. But read our new IMF note on the issue. So important to remember that the IMF only exists to be predators and to enslave countries and raise debt and, and put money into the pockets of private bankers. That's what they do. Read the Creature from Jekyll island, which is a little hyperbolic or literally any book. Read the Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein, one of the best books of all time. That shows the IMF playbook. If you don't know it in general. Here's the tldr. United States invades somewhere. I'm not saying that that could be happening now, but the imf, the United States government, decides that a place like, you know, Argentina, or we've done it all over the world, Iraq, Afghanistan, is ripe for regime change. We go in, we do a coup with the CIA really quietly, or we just go to a wholesale war. And then after that, the country needs to be rebuilt, right? And they're poor and they're not having fun staying poor like crypto people. So you have to go in and give them a bunch of loans. And the World bank and the imf, which are run by globalists and private banks, come in, they give them a big predatory loan that can never be paid back. And those governments have to keep paying interest. And when the loan is up and they obviously can't pay it back, what do you do? You print more money and you give them another loan. And then the bankers get more interest on those. And then you've just like in our system where, you know, a dollar goes into fractional reserve banking and becomes $10, you have these loans, it's a million dollars. It's a, you know, A billion dollars. It becomes $10 billion. It becomes $100 billion. All the while, the IMF and their banker friends are collecting money. But yes, they're going to be doing all of that corruption and insanity that keeps you poor through the hidden tax and inflation on blockchain rails, so. But tokenized real world assets just crossed $36 billion on chain. Billion. This is no longer experimentation. I love that like everything on everything is written by AI now. It's just so obvious, right? Anyways, but highlights from the institutional. Institutional push into RWAs, tokenized treasuries and MMFs. I don't know what the motherfuck. MMFs now exceed $10 billion. Markets up 256%. Yo, yo. Major asset managers with trillions in AUM now active. Key players shaping the space. Block rat. Block block rat. Blackrock leading with Biddle. I gotta love that they named it Biddle. To be honest, man, 2 billion and a broader tokenization vision. Okay, you get the idea, right? We reported the news yesterday that Franklin Templeton also making a huge move to shore up their crypto presence by their purchase of Coin Fund or hiring of the Coin Fund executives. Nobody knows what it means, but it's very clear that this is a massive trend. I remember reporting on this last year and it was like a billion dollars on chain, literally. And we were cheering for it. We were like blackrock. Biddle had launched. Franklin Templeton had their funds. I always have sit on for Maple Finance. We know. But 36 billion is a real number. And if that 36x is from here like we did in the last year, we're going to be talking about trillions of dollars on chain. And when you look at the news we just reported from France, what the IMF is saying, what the DTCC is saying, we what Paul Atkins is saying at the SEC when talking about project Crypto. I think it's really, really clear that whether this is bullish for us as blockchainers. I made that up. Crypto enthusiasts. Because we want to invest in tokens. Whether that happens or not, the actual technology is being adopted and being adopted in a massive way. The next story we have today, Coinbase locks in conditional approval to become a trust bank. Now, once again, we've had a couple days of confusion with Coinbase stories. The day before it was when Paul Graywell did, but didn't say that we'd get clarity in 48 hours. Clearly he didn't mean it because here we are 48 hours later. But you know, a lot of people are like Dang Coinbase is a bank. I made a joke, which was entirely a joke. I do understand the mechanics where I said, now that Coinbase will have a banking charter or trust charter, can they just negotiate the Clarity act with themselves? We got the crypto side, we got the banking side. Let's come to an agreement with ourselves on stablecoin Yield and let's do this. Obviously not that simple. I was once again forced to clarify, this is more about financial infrastructure for Coinbase. So they got a conditional approval to operate as a bank. This expands the path into like custody and asset management and institutional products because they'll be plugged directly into the financial system and plugged much deeper into the regulatory apparatus. So they made it very clear that they are not going to be offering retail bank accounts, they're not going to be offering fractional reserve banking. They're actually raging against that machine, which I think is good. But this just means that they're moving from a crypto company to a fractional financial institution. And it's a much bigger story than people realize when you look at it that way, because the more regulation they get, the deeper they go. Companies like this will have less permission to ask for because they'll already be a part of the system that's been trying to hold us out for so very long. Now moving on to a bit of macro, I found this really, really interesting. There's a near perfect correlation here between US oil prices and US CPI inflation as shown in hour below in our below analysis. To be honest, I don't know where they got this chart. It has their watermark on it. But like I was. I'm just having chart envy. Like my charts don't do that. Mine are just blue and this weird gray and have lines written on them. There's move and stuff. And I just wanted to show you that before I steal the idea. But you can see that we have a lot of debate right now as to what the rise in prices of crude oil would mean for inflation. Now Dave came on yesterday, made the very eloquent argument and Mike McGlone the same thing. The after member. I don't think this is one of those causation correlation situations. So I think the greater environment around it is probably what causes CPI to rise, not crude itself. Because actually as crude rises there's demand destruction. It pushes you more into a recession, which could be deflationary. Right? And so it's a very interesting stat. And also we know that the price of oil could just dump if the Iran war ends tomorrow. But if you do look back historically, when WTI moves, you tend to see a surge in inflation. And if we see an actual surge in inflation, that's more evidence that we are going to have no rate cuts from the Fed. And apparently rate cuts from the Fed are all that can save us now. Obesity. Help me, Obi Wan. You're my only hope. Tomorrow morning is knocking. Stock your fridge now. How about a creamy mocha Frappuccino drink? Or a sweet vanilla smooth caramel maybe? Or a white chocolate mocha? Whichever you choose, delicious coffee awaits. Find Starbucks Frappuccino drinks forever. You buy your groceries. I'll be Obi Wan. You're my only hope. Do you guys get the Star wars reference? Princess Leia with R2D2. And they keep showing the hologram. You have no idea what I'm talking about, do you? Anyways, Blue Owl reels as investors who fueled its growth now want out. Wake up, honey. Some new private credit fud just dropped. We already knew about this, but Blue Owl now is under massive pressure here because everybody is looking for the exit and they've locked this fund. It's a major stress signal once again, inside private credit and alternative assets. And there's clearly some serious liquidity problems in the market right now. And they're bubbling in the illiquid and private side and not so conspicuous in the public side. But obviously, private markets always look calm until they don't. And Blue Owl matters here because it's an early sign that these illiquid assets are starting to crack with these tighter financial conditions. And it's not just Blue Owl, obviously, that we're seeing stories like this. From this week, we have private. Well, this is kind of the same story. We'll go on to the next one. Breaking UBS. UBS bank has stopped withdrawals from its nearly $500 million real estate fund. Yeah, that's not great. And the withdrawals are being paused for at least three years. So once again, a major liquidity story here inside traditional finance that underscores how, like the safe yield and investments that all of these big investors are making private, they're not that great when the money comes out. This is remit wants to come out. Excuse me. This is reminiscent of the story I told you earlier about fractional reserve banking, where it's really good until everybody wants to get their money out at the same time. Well, right now, from all these private funds, everybody wants to get their money out at the same time. And they're not even doing the like, hey, get in line. To redeem thing they're doing the nobody gets their money out. And listen like you're not supposed to be able to just take your money out of these to be fair. Like these are longer term investments and if everybody rushes to the exits, the mechanics obviously change and it's a problem. So I do understand why they would be locking these. But I think that this is just yet another reason. You can realize that self custody, tokenization and liquidity, all the things we talk about all the time here are really important. And traditional finance keeps reminding everybody here that like stable structures can become cages. The second that redemption pressure shows up is really problematic. I am not smart enough or informed enough or ballsy enough to tell you what this is going to mean long term for the economy. I can just tell you that this is yet again another indication that maybe we're not in the greatest economy of all time ever of mankind that the world has ever known and that maybe things aren't as great as they look. I'm not going to say that there's people saying that. Nobody would say that. Some, some more news that might get your attention. Treasury buys back 15 billion of its own debt. This is the largest, or I should say, excuse me, I don't want to be false. This matches the largest treasury buyback ever. It's kind of a reminder that the plumbing of the bond market, not so passive like this is under extreme active management at all times. And this is yet another indication that there might be some problems with liquidity. This is not a free market. These things don't float in price based on the whims of buying and selling and demand. I said cement, demand and supply. I'm not saying there's a crisis here yet, but this isn't exactly normal behavior when you're seeing all time highs. So just another thing to watch. This is one that I'm going to want to ask J. James lavish questions about when I have him here on Monday. I mean that's largely most of the big headlines and news that we had today. Obviously rhetoric is increasing and not decreasing when it comes to the Iran war. I find it wildly problematic. I can't imagine a world where we're actually done with this thing in a few weeks. They say two to three weeks. Can't write. I remember as I said, George Bush on the aircraft carrier in Iraq with mission accomplished behind him. And we were in Iraq for like another 20 years after that or something, we might still be there. So even if we're done dropping bombs in two to three weeks I think the implications of this on oil, on markets, on trust, on the Straits of Hormuz, all of these catchphrases that we got, I think it's going to take a very, very, very long time to find out how that shakes out. Give me a second. I have to cough. I muted it. Perfect timing on my mute. There is one other story, though, that I find just absolutely interesting, which has to do with absolutely nothing, but this is pretty awesome. I don't know if you guys saw this, but tbpn, who I'd never heard of till a few months ago when everybody started telling me about them, you need to make a show like TBPN. Nope, I didn't. They've been acquired by OpenAI. I should have. So here is. It says, the world is changing quickly, but TVPN will stay the same live every weekday, just with a lot more resources. Thank you to everyone that's been a part of this journey, big or small. So a. This just shows you how fast things are moving. I don't know if you guys watch them. It's a tech, vc, Silicon Valley focus show. They have great guests. They go live, I think three hours a day every weekday. But this thing's only existed for like 17 months, and they just sold it to OpenAI. And people are talking about numbers as big as 80, 90, $100 million. Now, what I find fascinating is if you dig into the numbers on something like this, it's a fraction of what a lot of your favorite crypto channels are doing and is obviously much bigger, but the perception is much bigger than the reality. So, first of all, if you guys don't know this about xviews, like, it drives me nuts. I'm shooting myself in the. In the foot by saying this. But I'm gonna tell you stuff so people will be like, I got 200,000 views on my X video. And then you go into the analytics and you click on it, and like 17 people watch the whole video, and it's like 200,000 people watch the first second. And what does that mean? It means that views on X are just. Every time it gets scrolled past accidentally in your timeline, it's very hard to watch a full video there. But those numbers, everybody kind of knows it, but are being used obviously by many platforms to go out and raise money and advertisers and get these huge deals. But to their credit, what they've done is they've become the place that the people that matter are looking at. All the VCs, Silicon Valley executives, like, I Said they have great guests and all those people look at them, they watch them for the news. And so it makes a hell of a lot of sense for OpenAI to buy this, because they can, obviously, to some degree. I'm not saying that there will be like journalistic lack of integrity, but to some degree they'll be able to drive the narrative and make sure that their messaging gets out to the most important people. So we're in a world now. You see these purchases like Breakout Prop was bought by Kraken. 5060 million in crypto. I think the platform that was bought by Kobe, bought by Coinbase from Kobe for doing ICOs. It was 50, 60 million. I think it was projected. None of that is based on the numbers. It's all based on vibes, right? And right now we're living in a world where attention matters more than anything, and companies are willing to pay a massive premium to get that attention, whether the numbers justify it or not. To me, that says all of you should go on your favorite AI, Claude, and just launch a show or something. Right? Actually, what I find the most interesting about that is that OpenAI didn't spend money to build an AI show. They went ahead and invested in humans doing a show. And I think that that makes me feel really good because directionally I'm right that there might be people out there still that want their news and information from a human person and not from an AI. Just saw some news come through that was reported at least. Interesting. I haven't looked at it, so forgive me. Coin Glass reports 20.57 trillion overall crypto trading volume in Q1, with derivatives accounting for 90%. That is a just massive number. I got to wonder how much of that is wash trading. But very clear that we're still seeing huge numbers in volume here in crypto markets. Sam Altman, if you're listening, buy me. I'm just going to pause. You might not know this, Sam Altman. I've already got a massive sponsorship deal with lacroix, so that would be part of the deal. I've got some cars, kids, 100 million, man, like we're doing numbers over here. I don't know if you know that. I mean, okay, we're not like there's 690 people live crypto's dead. But like, that's still better than the thing you bought. We're going to go to Yahoo and we're going to crush it. It's going to be amazing, guys. That's all I've got for you today. We are heading into Easter weekend. Happy Passover. To those who celebrate happy Easter. To those who celebrate happy. I don't know. What are you, atheist? You know, Satan? We got something for everybody here. Sam Altman, OpenAI. I will vibe code this whole show for you. With OpenAI, we'll just. I will run. I will stop doing the show, and I'll just put OpenAI on my forehead, written an indelible marker. Call me. Call me, Sam. See you guys later. That's dope.