← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
PAY ATTENTION: Markets Are Flashing Warning Signs! Is Bitcoin At Risk?
00:33:58
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K Pop Demon Hunters, Saja Boy's Breakfast Meal and Hunt Tricks meal have just dropped at McDonald's. They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that, Rumi? It's not a battle. So glad the Saja Boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day.
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It is an honor to share.
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No, it's our honor.
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It is our larger honor.
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No, really, stop. You can really feel the respect in this battle. Pick a meal to pick a side.
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Ba da ba ba ba and participate in McDonald's while supplies last. Pay attention. Markets are flashing warning signs. Is bitcoin at risk? You ask what those warning signs could be. Well, we got a lot of data and none of it is looking too great. We got inflation numbers. Nah. We got GDP coming in super, super cold. Of course, all of this in the context of everything that's happening geopolitically and in markets in general. It is a bit of a shit show out there, but it seems that markets generally continue to shrug it off. I'm going to unpack all of that and more here on the Friday freestyle. Let's go. Let's do. Let's go. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the show. It is Friday, which means that I do no preparation and I just talk about stuff. It's a great time. And for some reason, Yahoo thinks that that's cool and is going to give me a daily show to not do preparation and talk about stuff. Actually, yesterday we did our first test run. It was really amazing. We're doing them every single day to make sure that we're plugged in and it's all working. We're launching on 4 20. So we're launching on 420. Maybe some of you don't know what that means, but it's just hilarious to me. Yeah, we're launching on 420 and we did this incredible. All the Yahoo things in the lower third, you know, like, you know when I say something, it like says it down on the bottom and there's a ticker and all that. And then we had a conversation. They were like, we just want you to be you, man. Let's just full screen it. And you just talk smack. And then I was like, can I say bad words? And they're like, not too many F bombs, but otherwise do you, bro. So I think we'll get a lot of 420 jokes and at least S bombs. And I figure if they could say shit on south park, that means we can say it here, right? It's tv and you guys didn't want to know any of that. But in my preparation for it, I also did this cool thing. Check this out. Look at that. It's a better split screen than the one we had before, right? I made that. I produce. But anyways, as you can read here, this is Brian Armstrong, but he's responding to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant who's saying Congress has spent the better part of a half a decade trying to pass a framework to onshore the future of finance. It is time for banking GOP to hold a markup and send the Clarity act to President Trump's desk. Brian Armstrong says we agree. Thank you for saying it. It's time to pass Clarity Act. Grateful for all the bipartisan work among senators and staff over the past several months to make this a strong bill. So listen, we all know that Brian Armstrong was one of the people who killed the bill because apparently an independent CEO of a private company can kill a bill. But this was the fundamental argument over whether you should be able to earn yield on your stable coins. Obviously the banking industry saying, no, no, no, no, no, we want to keep all those sweet yields for ourself and not passing our customers. And the crypto industry saying, hey, you know, like if we're not going to share in the risk, we don't get yields. But like if, you know, if we're going to share in the risk and banking, we should get the yields. But like if a stable coin issuer is making a bunch of yield, maybe the customers should get some of that too. Seems very reasonable. We don't know what conclusion there has been to that. And we still don't know what other debates and landmines are coming for the Clarity act, like the ethics clause and defi and all these other things. But it seems that at least Brian Armstrong sending a bit of an olive branch here, giving an indication and hint that maybe things are moving along. I like the sense that we've spent the better half of a decade trying to pass a framework to onshore the future of finance. But were we really trying during the Biden years? I mean, I guess we had like a little time at the beginning and then this big break and then we kind of started again. End. But yeah, listen, I think that right now we're getting a delivery on most promises from the Trump administration. We've certainly seen the pendulum swing in a favorable direction for crypto. And regardless of what happens with legislation, we know that we do have extremely favorable regulators who are working on this and people in key places Like Besant at the head of the treasury trying to get this done. Of course he has nothing to do with getting the Clarity act done, but he wants to. That said, we do have some news from the treasury which I don't know how you want to interpret this one. Treasury proposes rule to implement the Genius Act's requirements to counter illicit finance. So listen, this is being positioned as starting to implement the Genius act, which I think is true. So through FinCEN and OFAC, the treasury issued a joint proposed rule to implement the Genius Act. Just going to read the bullet points. The rule would treat permitted payment stablecoin issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy act rules, which means AML requirements, sanctions and compliance programs and broader anti illicit finance obligations. So treasury is framing this as a way to support American leadership in payment stablecoins while still protecting national security and the financial system. In plain English, the US is not banning stablecoins, it's trying to domesticate them. I would say domesticate means control, but when you look more deeply into this, the favorable side is that we got the Genius Act. That was a promise made, promise kept, and we now know exactly what stablecoin issuers can and can't do. And of course we then would have to naturally expect that the treasury and that all of these institutions would move to actually put those laws into place. But if you listen to my conversation with Chris Giancarlo, which really changed my entire mind about the Genius act and the coming Clarity act because he was the head of the CFTC and broke it down for me in plain English, you can go back and visit that conversation from a few weeks ago. He basically said the Genius act has had some unintended consequences or more nefarious view would be very intended consequences. The Genius act, as it says here, basically treats these financial institutions issuing stablecoins as institutions under the Bank Secrecy act rules. So if you now think about the worst fears about a central bank digital currency or a stablecoin, they've definitely been realized and codified in the Genius Act. Right, and what does that mean? It means that our biggest fear about a central bank digital currency before was that the United States government would have pure visibility into our private transactions. Basically the idea of cash would be gone. You know, if you sent money to someone, they would know exactly what you did because they could see it on the blockchain. They were controlling it. Well now what we have effectively through the Genius act and what's being very much proven here, is that they are instituting this so that the government can see every single transaction, can block those transactions, can freeze those transactions, can roll those transactions back and see exactly what you're doing with your money. But not only them, but also the private stablecoin issuers themselves. So not only did we end up with the government with full transparency and control over transaction with stablecoins, we ended up with private companies having control over exactly what we do with our stablecoins. If you remember the whole Meta Libra DM saga, when Facebook effectively proposed the idea of a private stablecoin and went on Congress, went on the floor of Congress and got absolutely eviscerated because people were terrified at the idea that a large tech company could have a stable coin that they had control of. Well, welcome to the genius act. So I don't know, this is one of those where as a bitcoiner kind of with libertarian leanings who kind of bought all this stuff to opt out of the government, I'm starting to be very concerned that the legislation that we were largely cheering for, myself included, could be a bit of a Trojan horse and very damaging for us into the future. Could violate the very privacies that we love this industry for and this asset class for. So listen, we're going to have to watch and see how this goes. I think, you know, there's a positive argument to be made for when criminals steal things using stablecoins. We roll that back and give that money back to the people who were stolen from the victims. But like, have we ever seen an instance where the government got more control of something and didn't use that power? Very, very rarely. So we're going to see what happens there. But pretty crazy out there in legislation land at the moment. So let's talk a bit more about this hyperbolic title. Pay attention. Markets are flashing warning signs. They are though. They are though. Let's take a look at some of them. Okay. Shaving 4% off GDP growth represents net economic loss of well over 1 trillion of value for the United States. This is referring to the news breaking. US GDP growth falls from 4.4% to 0.5% in Q4 2025, well below the initially expected 2.8% growth. Like 4.4 was really high, but 2.8 expectation was really strong. And 0.5% is hot keeping garbage. And the whole premise of the current economic situation and those at the head of it has been that debt doesn't matter because we can grow, baby, grow. We're going to grow our ways right out of this. Right. And so that requires a massive GDP growth, certainly GDP growth that's going to outgrow inflation. And meanwhile, back at the ranch, U.S. energy inflation surged 10.9% in March 26amid the Iran war, marking the biggest monthly jump since 2005. Okay, so I'm seeing a lot of panicans about this. I am not one of them. So I think we know that the inflation surge specifically in energy is related very specifically to the operation in Iran. And if that operation ends and oil flow comes back, then this should not be a problem. We should see US energy prices dropping and that inflation should not be baked in. That said, I don't think that we're at a point right now when we can take for granted that everything's just going to go back to normal. Like we talked about this yesterday on March Mavericks with Maglone and Gareth where I every week go into the arena looking like Hercules in my mind and I just battle the bears. I fight them two bears in there and it's like me and double bear headlock. Honestly, that's not how it goes. They make me feel really bearish sometimes. But as I said there, I think a lot of people are taking for granted the fact that we're just going to go back to how it was. And it seems, and I will say be the first to say I have no idea what news is true ever anymore, especially if it comes from our government. I think our government like feeds us what we need to know, but we're on a need to know basis and we don't need to know why they're actually in Iran. I'll give them that. And I understand the argument that the United States government can't tell everybody why they're there. Trust the government. Okay, whatever. We certainly can't believe what Iran is saying. But you know, as a person who tries to at least step back and give a third party view based on what you can see in the information, it seems like right now the straits are still closed. Iran, even in the best case scenario, is likely to become a toll collector. With Bitcoin, which is bananas, we can get into that too, but likely to be a toll collector and that there will not be as much energy flowing through the straits at the same time. We saw news yesterday, I think that Saudi Arabia's capacity was down 6 or 800,000 barrels off the top. Not to 600,000 barrels, but down 6 to 800,000 barrels. I believe it was about a 5% reduction because of tax on their pipelines. I think it's fair to say that no matter what happens the way things were is not going to be the way that things are going to be. So I think that we can at least expect for some of this to be baked in for quite a while before these problems are solved. I mean, the good news is if you understand the energy situation in the world, the United States is pretty independent. So yes, this causes inflation here, but less damaging to us than the rest of the world. But we all know how I feel about the war. This feels like a self inflicted wound to me. But I will still try to recover from the TDS you all believe I have and try to be honest appraiser of the information moving forward, which I actually think I've been. I just don't like war very much. And meanwhile, at the same time as all this is happening, breaking March CPI inflation rises to 3.3% below expectations of 3.4% core CPI inflation rises to 2.6% below expectations of 2.7%. CPI inflation is now up to its highest level since May 2024amid the Iran war. Fed rate cuts have been priced out. 2026, we'll see. But yeah, I've been saying that the, I've been saying forever. I mean even before the Fed cut, when everyone was expecting cuts for like years, I kept saying there's no reason for them to cut, there's no reason for them to cut. They're not going to cut. Then we got the like kind of political cuts and some light cutting, like not like hedges, more like circumcision. Fed rate cuts of late. It's just a little snip for those of you who don't know about that parts of the world where they don't do that a lot. Yes, but you know, and now the expectation that we don't get the cuts and it's kind of strange because we know that Trump bullied Powell for months and months and months. They did that little comedy scene, the who's on first vibes, where they wore the little hard hats in the cute little building and they made each other feel super awkward. You guys remember that? And we acted like it was a massive fraud, that we were building a building. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. I have no idea. I'm not like the biggest Jerome Powell fan or homer. I don't need to definitely defend him here. But either way, the idea before this whole war and before all of this started to happen was that we were going to get warship and Warsh was going to come in, he was going to cut, baby cut. Because the Fed, they're supposed to be cutting this whole time, but we had tariffs and it's, I guess in Powell's defense, you have to wait and see how these things flow through the system and what they really mean. And now we have a war and some energy, inflation and other things going on. So they're going to have to wait and see as you would expect them to. And so now we're in a position where I don't think the Fed can really do anything except for sit on its hands and wait. And that should probably apply to Warsh as well. Now, why we did this to ourselves I have no idea. But if you're expecting massive liquidity to come into the market because of the Fed, all bets are off on that actually happening. That said, I happen to believe that the Fed is a lame duck agency that's effectively been neutered in a fiscally driven environment. So they weren't going to be the ones to give us that sweet, sweet liquidity anyways. And if I know anything about our government is that they're going to print, baby, print and prop up those markets for as long as they humanly can. Certainly until we at least, at least get a midterm election. Now we've got some news coming straight outta. I was gonna say Compton, but it's Japan. Basically the same place straight out of Japan. A crazy. Anyways, Japan amended its Financial Instruments and Exchange act to classify crypto as financial instruments, not just payment tools. The law bans insider trading in crypto and requires issuers to publicly disclose information annually. Japan plans to legalize crypto ETFs by 2028. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I've actually been to that place. It's actually incredible. When the tide is low, you can walk right out there and sit on it. It's pretty cool. I was on tour in Japan. I went to like 30 cities in Japan in 2006. You guys know that about me. I got facts, got lots of stories. Anyways, this is actually pretty big news because in the past, Japan was not treating crypto as a financial instrument. They were largely treating it as payments. So just to give you some quick hits on what this will actually mean. So it will be reclassified as a financial instrument. Capital gains on crypto are slated to drop from 55% down to a flat 20%, aligning with traditional investment products. Can we get that 20% flat over here? What are we doing? It's ridiculous. I want that. Penalties for unregistered operations can reach up to 10 years in prison and fines of 10 million yen, that's like $12. Don't worry, it's actually $62,800. 10 million yen. The Japan's FSA will require every license exchange to hold dedicated liability reserves to reimburse users in case of hacks, fraud or UNF unauthorized withdrawals. And obviously, as I said before, they're going to get ETFs. So this is actually huge news in Japan. Crypto going to be taken seriously, taxes are going to come down, it's going to be deeply integrated into the financial system and eventually we're going to get ETFs on which they're obviously horribly lacking. The fact that they don't have that yet. At the same time, breaking the bank of Japan's total. This could have just said breaking the bank of Japan. See what I did there? Breaking the bank of Japan's total assets fell 98 billion in Q1 2026 to 4.14 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2020. Last I checked. Going back in history. What happened? Oh, Covid. Since the Q1 2024 peak, the BOJ, we just call them the BJ's has reduced its balance sheet by 590 billion or 12.6%. So basically we've got some massive quantitative tightening going on in Japan. Bank of Japan is adding to bond market pressure. If we try to combine this with the previous story, which I don't know that it's fair to do that because crypto and what the Bank Japan are probably doing are unrelated, but I do think that we're seeing like a massive tightening of traditional markets in Japan while opening massive on ramps to the crypto industry. And whether that's an intentional trend or not, that's the kind of thing I think that we're going to be seeing around the world. Like yesterday, I mean, we broke it down, but what was the news? 1.5 quadrillion in stablecoin volume by 2035 quadrillion with a Q. Did you guys see that? This was coming from Chainalysis. I talked about this on my pilot of the Daily Wolf for Yahoo that you'll never see. I now can't remember when I talked about things if it was with you guys or just for a recording. It was for a recording. But their bear case or something, I don't have. The article in front of me was 700 trillion trillion by 2035. This is annual volume in stable coins. The bear case, 700 trillion. The bull case was 1.5 quadrillion with a Q. Quadrillion like Made up numbers that don't exist. It's not real. It's not real either way. And then so I was like let me do some research AI and I went in there and it said that achievement last year in 2025 did 92 billion. The bear case for 2035 for stablecoins is 7.7x what ACH does in a year and the bull case was like 16x or something. I mean that is absolute insanity. So like yeah, you want to draw a corollary to what's happening in Japan. We are going to eat the entire financial system. But once again what I always say, yeah, stablecoins are going to eat. Like I could make money on stablecoins, right? I guess we can buy Circle stock and hope that they win and hope for the best. But regardless the technology and stablecoins which are the first iteration of the tokenization of real world assets which is going, we know that we're going to tokenize everything. They're going to win because they're cheaper, faster and better. And anybody who doesn't get on board is going to go full blockbuster. Okay. In other news, we have something here coming from our good friends, our beloved Morgan Stanley over there. Why are all these people named Morgan? So we just have JP Morgan Stanley and get this over with. Well I made a joke but you know once I said that we were having a JP Morgasm in our industry when we got news from JP Morgan that was pro crypto but now I guess we can have a Morgasm Stanley it just doesn't hit the same. Anyways, this checks having a more data.
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I have to tell you in terms of the pickup we saw yesterday, the first day of trading, our best first day of trading for any of our ETF ETFs since we've started the ETF product line a couple of years ago. So I think that speaks to the demand that's still out there for the Bitcoin ETF. Almost 1.7 million shares traded yesterday and at 12:00 today we are already having another good day today. As you said there is, it's a nice, it's a nice week in the market. A nice day in the market for some pickup in Bitcoin and the markets to help us out there.
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But and there's a nice, I mean so Morgan Stanley, not traditionally a huge ETF issuer, which obviously is signal right there that they chose to participate. They chose to do it by offering a much cheaper product than the competitors. But this is their best ETF launch ever. And we know that the Bitcoin ETFs themselves were the greatest launch in the history of all ETFs. Nobody's ever seen a launch like that. Who talks like that? Nobody in the history of mankind could even imagine that there would be a launch of ETFs like that. That was like me doing Donald Trump as Tony Soprano, but without an accent. That was really weird. I felt very weird about that, to be honest. But I mean, this is really cool, right? So Morgan Stanley, their best day. And they were only like fifth or sixth of all the ETFs traded that day. They did see inflows over 30 million in volume on inflows on a day when there were largely massive outflows actually from the Bitcoin ETF. That was two days ago, I think there was 192 that went out. But still there's a fraction of the trading volume of the big leaders. But of course, what giveth taketh away and giveth away again. I don't even know if these stories are news anymore. But we had the massive inflows three days ago. Big outflows the day Morgan Stanley launch. But then yesterday, inflows are back, baby. Oh, look, look at that. I can do this too. You guys know that. What else can I do? There's more, but we're gonna go to this. Looks good, Looks good. Good job, team spot Bitcoin ETFs bought 343 million in Bitcoin. Yesterday. BlackRock's Ibit alone bought 269 millions. Now, I think at this point it's kind of ridiculous to keep looking at daily inflows as if they're signal. I'm actually not sure if price follows the ETF flows or if ETF flows follow price. We have a bit of a chicken and an egg problem there. But either way, this is largely showing that there's still a hell of a lot of interest on the buy and sell side for these products from Tradfi retail investors and institutions. I will continue to reference and go back to the same thing that I have kept showing, which is that institutions in the first quarter bought a hell of a lot of bitcoin and retail sold a hell of a lot of it. And you know, to me that's a pretty good signal that we're seeing a transfer of wealth from weak hands to strong hands. Can't believe I just cooked 24 minutes before getting to the only story that matters today. You know, it's like that movie what was the blades of steel Blades of. What's the movie with Will Ferrell? We're gonna skate to one song, one song only. Lady Humps by Black Eyed Peas. Nobody knows what it means, but it's provocative. The only. We're going to talk about one story and one story only. And it's. Holy shit, man. God. This is why we can't have nice things. By the way, Trump's World Liberty Financial uses 5 billion WLFI to borrow 75 million from a platform its advisor co founded. Now that's a hell of a title from CoinDesk. So on chain data shows that World Liberty Financial deposited 5 billion of its own tokens as collateral to borrow stablecoins. It then sent to Coinbase prime, pushing a lending pool to 100% utilization, leaving depositors unable to withdraw. Okay, so this is. There's a lot to unpack here. I actually spent like two hours deep diving with AI this morning because we don't use brains anymore, we just use AI. They are our brains. And I don't think by any stretch, and I would never say something about the president, his family, that was negative, but I don't think there's anything particularly nefarious fraudulent scammy at all. I just think there's a lot of risk. Right. And so I actually did a deep dive. I'll be putting out an article on this later that went into all of their documents and disclosures all the way from the World Liberty Financial launch until now. And everything's basically there in plain English. So if you participated in this, you kind of knew what you were getting. But the issue here, obviously is giving people kind of the spidey senses of 2022 and just to, I guess put it into plain English, what happened is that. So people invested in this. 80% of the tokens that people bought are still locked and there has yet to be a vote or clarity or governance on how those tokens will be unlocked. So you've had a lot of early investors, retail, who are very upset that they haven't had the 80% of token unlocked. A lot of them want them now. There hasn't been a vesting schedule given. So that's one of the problems. So then the next issue is that they're using World Liberty Financial as collateral to take out loans in both USDC and USD1, their own stablecoin, and that's been sent to Coinbase prime. And a lot of people seeing it move to Coinbase prime and thinking that that means they're selling it, we don't have clarity on that necessarily. But what we do know for a fact is that World Liberty Financial itself is being used as collateral for dollar based loans. And we don't know what's being done with that. So it's kind of shady, right? To a lot of people, even though like I said, they're allowed to do it. Dolomite, which is the platform, is also owned by an advisor to World Liberty Financial. Right. And so as you dig into some of the numbers, I guess the big question marks come with what happens if other people want to get out if the huge borrower here is one entity. So I mean we can read into it right now, I had it here, let's scroll down, do the thing, blah blah, blah. So Dolomite co founder Corey Kaplan's advisor to World Liberty Financial now sits Dolomite's top of Dolomite supplied asset list with 458.9 million in supply liquidity, roughly 55% of the protocol's entire 835.7 million. So most of what is on this platform right now is World Liberty Financial. The structural concern sits in Dolomite's USD1 pool. USD1, which now has 4.6 billion in circulation, ranks second on the protocol with 180 million supplied against 1:67.5 million borrowed, a utilization ratio of about 93%. So what you're seeing here is effectively very similar to fractional reserve banking. If people not named World Liberty Financial have put money into these pools and they all want to get their money out at the same time or more than checks, notes 7% ish, want to get their money out at the same time, obviously they're not going to be able to do that until the one huge, huge entity, World Liberty Financial itself pays back that loan. So they did a response thing which is, I'm just going to be honest man, like if I was responding, I would not have used the most obvious AI slop chat GPT response in the history of AI slop chat GPT responses. But they did. Let's talk about the FUD going on around WL5 markets lending position. It's wrong. Here's what's actually happening. And then they use that fat dash that only comes from ChatGPT and why the real story is a lot more interesting. So they go out, they, they admit all this. As I said, it's very transparent. We are one of the largest suppliers and borrowers on World Liberty Financial markets. Yes, we supplied World Liberty Financial as collateral and borrowed stable coins. No, we are nowhere near liquidation and frankly, even if markets move dramatically against us, we'd simply supply more collateral. That's not a risk. That's how this works. Little bit of trust me bro here. Because what they're saying basically is if the price of World Liberty Financial dumps, which did 10% on this news, they can just add more. And where would they get that? Oh, they printed it, right. They created a token. They can then use that token as collateral to take out actual money and move it and do with it as they see fit. And they're basically admitting here, as we go on, we'll go on. Before I dive in, here's what the FUD crowd is missing entirely. By being the anchor borrower, we're generating the yield that we're a liberty financial market. That makes WLFI markets compelling for everyone else. Everyday users are earning outsized stablecoin yields right now. That doesn't remind me of anything at a time when traditional markets are offering very little. That's the whole point. Numbers matter. Let's get into them. USD 1 is currently at a 159.5 million annual revenue run rate. Quiet. Compounding accelerating. Yes, they definitely wrote those three words. That was not AI. They bought back some tokens. Governance. We talked about this. And then they go into why USD1 is great for like agents, which has literally nothing to do with the fudge, but here they go. So to recap, no liquidation risk. That's not true. Okay, if the token goes to zero, you get liquidated. Minimal liquidation risk we can say, right? Users earning exceptional stablecoin yield. That is true. But they're going on here to very transparently say they are creating those yields through a flywheel of financial engineering. 65 million in token buybacks. Kind of a rounding error when you look at how much is actually in there. Governance proposal incoming to unlock those locked tokens for early holders. That said 80% I was talking about and of course USD 1 bill for the agentic economy. The critics are looking at the wrong thing. We're building something that compounds. Okay, so as I said, there's nothing wrong with any of this if when you are using it, you understand the risks and have read the documents. But it's very valid for people to have concerns about the likelihood that this goes wrong because we've seen echoes of this movie before even though it's not exactly the same. But to be very clear, they created a token, they have a advisor who owns a platform called Dolomite and they're using that token as collateral for loans at a rate of 93% collateralization. Right. If you go to one of our friends like Abra and take out a loan on your Bitcoin, which by the way, is less volatile than World Liberty Financial, they're not going to give you a loan at higher than 50, 60% LTV, and they start giving you liquidation warnings at 60, 70, whatever the number is, you're not getting a 93%, you're getting liquidated. So it's already at a level that most responsible platforms would liquidate much more solid, less volatile assets. And that's the conversation. So I'm going to reserve judgment because I don't want to live in a gulag or eat slop. And I'm going to let you decide for yourself. But that is the current situation and it's very hard to argue with it, to be quite honest. So you can decide whether you're comfortable with that if you want to participate in it, or you can just entirely opt out. Buy Bitcoin like the rest of us and continue to live your life. That's all I've got for you guys today. Hope you have a wonderful weekend. I know I plan to. We will see you soon. Peace out. Let's do. Let's do.