
Raoul Pal Predicts The Biggest Bitcoin & Crypto Boom Yet!
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Raoul Paul
Who the fuck are you to say that somebody with a million dollars is more responsible over their money or is smarter or is more able or still wants to lose all of their money? Yeah, people have got to stop thinking about the cycle. The cycle, the cycle, the cycle.
Scott Melker
It's a bull market for everybody but me.
Raoul Paul
It's what your friend owns, not what you own. If bitcoin goes from 100,000 to 250,000, we're all like, oh, find me a better asset. This is shit. It needs a weaker dollar. Everybody needs a weaker dollar. What it was was a couple by the technologists.
Scott Melker
Big thumbs up. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, Raoul Paul. It's official, crypto markets have entered the banana zone, a term coined by Raoul Paul that we discussed many, many months ago on this very show. I'm not going to waste time with a long winded intro when you know you're about to get endless alpha from the legend Raoul pal, that's dop. So I think we can make an official public service announcement and that is that we have officially entered the banana zone.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, I think that's pretty clear.
Scott Melker
The much anticipated banana zone. I would say actually that our final signal was when Justin sun bought one for $6.2 million and ate it.
Raoul Paul
Oh, and Elon was putting bananas on his rockets. And in his rockets. I'm like, what the fuck?
Scott Melker
But a lot of people were skeptical. Still, when you made the bold call, was it spring when you really said with conviction, hey, halving's coming, liquidity cycle's coming, elections coming, everything aligns. The banana zone will come. I always believed in the four year cycle for whatever reason, and figured that we would see this parabolic move in the fall. But it's been interesting how much it's been led by bitcoin so far.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, I mean, that's always the first phase of it. Don't forget. I mean, if you go back to 2020, it was not until like November that Eth started really performing. It was all bitcoin dominance and bitcoin dominance topped. Almost at the right moment, bitcoin took off. Now we haven't got to. I think my next phraseology is going to be the banana singularity. That's when everything goes bananas. But what we're seeing is this is a tricky market like this because what you're getting is a whack a mole, which is never the thing that you're owning.
Scott Melker
It's a bull market for everybody but me.
Raoul Paul
It's what your friend owns, not what you own. And then you get like a week in the sun where everything goes up and then it goes off again. So we're not at the banana zone singularity point yet. That will come as well. That's probably, you know, sometime Feb. March, when it all gets silly.
Scott Melker
I thought the banana zone singularity was going to be the merger between an AI super human intelligence and crypto in some way, shape or form. But I like yours better. But we really haven't had a true alt season, to your point. Right. The alt seasons that people remember from the past, which by the way are really 2021, 2017, do the math. That means 2025 on the four year cycle, not 2024, but when you can throw the dart and it goes up, period. Right. We've still had this sort of sector by sector or narrative by narrative moves, you know, which we always see in the past. But it's been almost a barbell of memes and bitcoin and then a few select things in between.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, exactly right. And then. But you know, we did see the first signs of it, you know, all of the, as they were called, Dino coins, all of the longer standing crypto, all had face ripping rallies, which was good for them. Then we had the AI ones. It's been very sporadic, as you say, but overall the whole space is moving higher. But it just is all happening in sporadic periods. And then it pauses. And it's been pausing for a bit now. Like Solana's done nothing for a while and then you look back and it's done another 50%. And it's an interesting market. Normally what happens at this phase is, is we should rally into year end pretty strongly in everything, but then the real game gets played in first quarter.
Scott Melker
Yeah. So let's put this in context of what's happening with broader markets and in the world. Obviously we have the Trump presidency incoming. You said a Santa Claus rally, so that's what you're alluding to. We should have a good end of the year, but then maybe some question marks coming into January. I think everybody's bullish on what Trump will do for the market. But you know, there's some question marks as to what will really happen if he does widespread tariffs, for example, if we don't hear about crypto in the first 100 or 200 days, because there are other priorities, what that can mean for the market. And then of course, the Department of government efficiency, aka DOGE. Last I checked, if they fire, you know, 75% of government employees in the first few months, that might put a slight Dent in job numbers.
Raoul Paul
Exactly. Look, there's always something to worry about, but generally speaking, let's look at the last Trump administration. So from September to the end of the year, the dollar rallied. September, the end of the year, rates went up. Same narrative, it was all about tariffs and what's he going to do and how's it going to play out? Almost exactly as the year turned, the dollar went lower and rates went lower. So I've been producing a chart showing that global liquidity tightened and it has a 10 week lead time and that should mean that the end of the year we get a correction. Now that would not be surprising. Let's say bitcoin gets to 120, it corrects back down to 100. I mean that's just normal course of business. But Twitter being Twitter is losing its mind over this correction. I get messages, is this the one? I'm like, calm down. You should be expecting at least another four or five of these over the course of the next year. They're just regular, but for some reason that people are losing their minds. But once that's out of the way, usually it should be good. Now liquidity needs to come back. So we need to see the dollar weaken, we need to see rates come down somewhat. Those are key things for us. I don't see any reason why not. And then there's a bunch of technical stuff like the draining of the treasury general account over the period for the budget negotiations and stuff like that. And normally that's a big injection of liquidity. And the Fed are doing other rinky dink stuff like they're going to cut interest rates on the reverse repo, which basically is trying to force money out of money market funds and into the private sector.
Scott Melker
So everybody wants liquidity, everybody. And they're willing to force it by any means necessary. Everything you just described were just ways for them to find more money in corners that we haven't looked into to inject more liquidity.
Raoul Paul
Well, because they've got to roll the debt and they can't at high levels because it just means a compounding of debt. And if Elon is serious about trying to get the payments down, well, debt's the biggest one. It's now bigger than the military, so they've got to do that. The other side of the equation is we all know China's in trouble right now. Its economy is a mess, bond yields keep falling. And really why China's in a problem is it can't stimulate without losing its currency and it doesn't want to do that. So what it needs desperately is the US to inject liquidity. So it too can inject liquidity. It needs a weaker dollar. Everybody needs a weaker dollar. Now, last time Trump got in, one of the first things he said is we want a weaker dollar. If you think about what they want to do, they want to export US Goods, they want a weaker dollar, they just want a weaker dollar, and they're going to have to do that.
Scott Melker
Is there a path where the dollar flies, some unexpected way that that happens, or can they pull whatever lever they want and make this happen? I'm always impressed by how far they can kick these cans down the road.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, I mean, they want the weaker dollar. The stronger dollar is something nobody wants, but let's say it happens. Well, what is Scott Besant likely to do? He's likely to inject more liquidity somehow, some way, because what they don't want is to. I mean, this administration above all others seems to be really focused on the.
Scott Melker
Midterms, which makes sense.
Raoul Paul
They've already raised a ton of money and they're like, if we need to get anything done, we need four years. If not, it's a shit show. Can we have the, the Senate, the House, everybody, for four years, then we can get stuff done. And that's, I think what all of their sort of heavy level advisors are, is like, this is the important thing. So the last thing they want is to fuck up the economy in the meantime. Nobody wants that. They want a nice strong economy without too much inflation, without, you know, but that they want a decent picture. So I think they're going to do anything they can to do that.
Scott Melker
When we talked about the initial iterations of the banana zone, you know, six, seven months ago, you pointed out, as I said, the liquidity cycle and the election and all these things yet to happen, but we did not even at that point have full bull. Donald Trump for crypto. So now you have him saying, while ringing the bell at the stock exchange that he views the price of bitcoin effectively as a marker for the success of his campaign, right, of his presidency. Like, yeah, we knew that. The guy looks at the stock market going up and, you know, has dreams about it and it's all he cares about is making people rich. Now he views bitcoin equally in that bucket. This is beyond even my wildest banana zone expectation.
Raoul Paul
This is not a normal election. This is not a Republican versus Democrat election. It was fought on that. But what it was was a coup by the technologists. They won the entire government, whether it's J.D. vance to Vivek to clearly Elon to David Sachs who was in the background doing all of this, to Marc Andreessen to Brian Armstrong. They orchestrated this. It is their couple. So what we put in is not an old Republican administration of the past. We've put in the technologists who said we're going to run the show now. And Trump gets the smartest people in the world to do this for him and he gets to walk away with a good legacy because he can't be voted in again. So this is why he's very compliant with all of these guys as well. I mean, so that is the biggest change I think we have seen in an election cycle for a very long time. It's the kind of complete collapse of the political system as we knew it. And on a more serious note, well, that's a serious note too. But on a serious note, the next election and the elections afterwards are not going to be fought over capital and labor. So all political systems are capital versus labor. And it's the balance of power between the two that defines politics. Where we're going, there ain't no labor.
Scott Melker
Well, because of AI and the technologist taking over, obviously.
Raoul Paul
And so the next election will be fought over. It's going to be like the humanist transhumanists. It's like pro tech, anti tech, and it's only going to get worse. And then there'll be parties trying to give AI rights. There's all sorts. But this capital labor thing, I think that was the last election that it's ever going to be the major thing because it won't be labor. So yes, there'll be protective versus free market, all sorts of things that we know. But the change in how we think about things is going to be massive.
Scott Melker
I think it could also be skinned as the oppressor versus the oppressed. We have this very strange society now where even when horrible things happen to people, CEO of UnitedHealthcare. Right. Was. Was murdered. And you see there's a whole sector of the population because he was rich or because, you know, they view health care as predatory. That was celebrating this guy's death. Right. But that seems to be kind of more the division that we're going to have moving forward is the, I guess it's the same capitalists, you know, but money versus no money or power versus no power. It's the same struggle. But it seems like we're at this really interesting tipping point where that could, I'm not going to say explode, but I think where that is largely what's being voted on in a lot of these cases as well.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, I mean, I don't think the average person has realized what they voted in. Yeah, I mean, I'm very pro technology because it's the only way of driving up GDP growth and changing everybody's future. But what a world. I mean, the Europeans are doing the exact opposite. They're busy saying, you can't use video AI models, you can't do this, you can't do that. And the US is about to go full acceleration. Hit the nuclear button. Fuck it, let's do it. I don't know. I just know it's going to be a wild ride for the next four to eight years. It's going to be crazy.
Scott Melker
I hadn't really thought about it in the way that you framed it, that it was sort of a victory by the technologists. Obviously, I didn't really view it as right, left, cut and dry as it was in the past. But when you think about effectively every person being appointed to a position, they're all either billionaires or technologists in some way. But what I found even more striking, and maybe this is a commentary on where technologists stand when it comes to bitcoin and crypto. But every one of them in every role, whether it's a financial role or not, is in some way outspokenly pro Crypto or bitcoin.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, because don't forget the crypto lobby. Brian Armstrong raised more money than anybody else than a 16Z. And Trump knew. I mean, there was a, I think. Was it Mark Cuban who was saying this? I can't remember who it was, but it's like, are you insane? 51% of all males under the age of 30 own cryptocurrency and you've been beating them with a stick. So what you've got is in another four years time, they're wealthier, older, and if you're enabling their wealth, they will not forget you. And so Trump has, I think, realized this, but also he had the unlimited money pot from this industry. And then when you talking to friends of mine from the crypto industry, they said the real mover and shaker in the background was David Sachs, who is Elon Peter Thiel's kind of puppet master.
Scott Melker
And who will now be the AI and crypto czar, which I basically, by the way, find interesting. It's not technology czar, it's very specifically the AI and crypto czar. How do you do that? That they've, that they've given it those Two specific industries as their own, sort.
Raoul Paul
Of down to what really matters. It's like that battle over capital, which is the crypto market and the AI. Now what's interesting here is they're all fighting for decentralization. That's not something you thought you'd see, but it's like decentralized money. And then it's been very clear because of Elon is they don't want to centralize the power of AI in closed source technologies. So suddenly Zuckerberg's back up on top because he's open sourced. Lama. And it's hugely fascinating. Again, I think we will look back in several decades time and say this was one of the most important elections that we've ever seen.
Scott Melker
Well, there's never been a greater pendulum swing, I don't think, especially from the regul perspective. You know what gets replaced now is this contentious. No merger and acquisition, no entrepreneurial spirit, no crypto government into what seems like, I guess, best case, but seems like will be a free for all. Maybe it won't, maybe it won't, but it feels like everyone's in place to allow these industries to thrive to any degree possible. I guess you could almost say that crypto now has to prove that it's worth all the things we've been saying. Right? You've got the environment. It's kind of like when you get in power, it's very hard to rule. So maybe crypto has to show its value now.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, look, I think they're also pretty sensible bunch. I think they will keep regulation in the right way. This reminds me somewhat of when I was young, Margaret Thatcher came into power. So she came into power before Reagan, she was the one with the big ideas. The UK had almost gone bankrupt, had to have a bailout from the IMF, where, you know, at the turn of the decade, 1979, it was rioting in the streets, race riots, garbage was not being collected, the country was falling apart, there was no electricity because there wasn't. There was an oil strike. Everything was happening. She comes into power, fights everybody, everybody hated her on the left, everybody on the right loved her, blah, blah, blah. But one of the things she did, which I think is a replay of what's happening now, we had a system of what were known as council houses in the UK which were government housing. And after World War II, because so many people had lost their livelihoods and all of this stuff, there was this for the, for the less well off, there was this government housing and it was a very low rent and what Thatcher did was sell them to those people, to the people renting them, but at a stupidly undervalued price. And she turned millions of less well off people from being labor voters and net creditors to debtors and conservative voters. She completely changed the nation for the next 12 years because of doing that. And this is the same kind of thing with crypto, right? If you enable all of these people, they will become free market capitalists.
Scott Melker
So what do you think the best case scenario is right now for crypto? Is it effectively an unregulated market where nothing is a security anymore and Coinbase lists every meme within five seconds of it launching? Or do you think that it's maybe a happier medium between the reasonable regulation that has prevented fraud in the past and all the problematic things in this industry and beyond, and the ability to still innovate and you know, operate, even operate a company in the United States?
Raoul Paul
Yeah, I think capital formation at the core is very important and I think they understand it. But there has to be some guidelines around capital formation or everybody scams everybody.
Scott Melker
Right?
Raoul Paul
And we've seen that, right? If you give them a pump fun casino, they will scam each other until they all run out of money. So yes, I think going to completely overhaul capital formation and that can be for traditional assets being tokenized. You know, don't forget when you speak to people like blackrock or Blackstone, even more importantly, they own all this real estate. What they want to do is they want to get individuals to invest in their funds to keep their big funds going. And so they want to tokenize. I heard Steve Schwarzman talking about this. I was at some event speaking and he was, you know, it's all, they all want to tokenize their assets. On the other side, tokens have been very profitable for VC funds, but also it's a good way to bootstrap a business as well. So yeah, I think crypto's going to go through some changes. But the big change is a, the finance system has nothing in its way for adopting the technology now. They're not scared of anybody. So we're going to see a lot of innovation being built in finance now. And don't forget Goldman, JP Morgan, they've been working on this for a decade. You know, Goldman's crypto team has been around since 2015, I think, so we're going to see that innovation. The other side is all of the brands, the cultural side of stuff, from football teams to pop stars to sporting to everything entertainment industry, it's all coming.
Scott Melker
Do you think that they're going to be launching NFTs or you think they're going to be launching meme coins this time?
Raoul Paul
I think all of these are experimentation with what they're it's going to end up being. You know, I've got a thesis on the music industry. I've had a long time where pop sales and stuff, they can have tokenized community. Taylor Swift is the example I give. Her economy is so big that the central banks in Australia, Singapore, the UK and the US all mention the Taylor Swift effect on their economies. Right. But she made like $1.4 billion in ticket sales. So therefore her economy is a lot bigger than that. You know, we're talking about this is a multi hundred billion dollar economy is what it's worth. So can that be tokenized in certain ways? It's very hard in the music industry because, and you know this because you've been around that industry for a long time, is Nobody owns their IP rights or anything. Everyone's got 78 different fingers in each pie. There's one thing that most people could get and that's the album cover art. Spotify, you know, because of streaming, you've lost all digital value. So how do you get digital value back? Well, an NFT is a pretty good digital value because it begins scarcity. So imagine if Taylor Swift had 100,000 kind of NFTs of the album cover art and they come with rights to tickets at events or merch or earlier stuff. Right now she suddenly got a revenue stream which had been gone to zero because of digitization. And she doesn't have to schlep her ass around the world dancing on stage, which is not an easy business. I mean, look at the Stones. They're still fucking touring and they're 80. Because it's the only way to make money in the industry now.
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think that there are still countless ways that NFTs could see the value that we saw four or six years ago. And a lot of sort of niche parts of crypto could finally see meaningful adoption this cycle for ideas that we saw last cycle. That said, I don't know about like 10,000 like Pfp avatar projects.
Raoul Paul
No, but what it's showing you, all that was the experiment with is, is can you create digital scarcity that has persistent value as an exchangeable. Unlike a meme coin, which is a fungible, this is a non fungible. Okay. That technology got battle tested by crypto to death. Brilliant. We're just doing it with meme coins now. Meme coins are what I think are going to end up being social tokens or community tokens and we are battle testing them to death and we will end up forcing regulation, everything else. It's pretty clever how we do this in crypto defi. We've battle tested it to death. We've blown everything up. We've tested everything because there's a bunch of degens who'll do anything to make a bit of money, but what they're doing is essentially being paid to test technology. It's pretty smart.
Scott Melker
So we saw what the first iterations then were of NFT adoption for music, art, memberships to clubs, everything. How does a meme token fill that role? If you think that that's the way that it's going to come? We've obviously seen a few Iggy Azalea and others do this without it being an outright scam, you know, but what's the use case of owning a meme token from the community perspective where the.
Raoul Paul
Actual utility, let's call it a meme token and let's call it a Disney token and everything in Disney World, you can get rewarded with these tokens and you can spend these tokens. So you've now created again, I use Disney a lot because Disney's like $190 billion company, whatever it is. What is the cultural value of Disney? I'd say a trillion dollars.
Scott Melker
Trillions.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. And we're not capturing it because you can't capture intangibles on a balance sheet and tokenization does that. So we saw the test of this. This was the Facebook Libra thing, which was like, can we have a three and a half billion person network and have our own system of money on it? Everyone's like, no, fuck off. We've just done it again with ton and again they've gone kind of fuck off. But we know it's coming. And that's the idea of decentralized money almost. Now there's not money. You know, Taylor Swift's Economy is not money, but it's a token, it's a loyalty point. You know, think of, you know, I use American Airlines, I got American Airlines points. I redeem them all the time. I do stuff, I own them, but they keep inflating. They debase my currency all the time. So we have a way of not debasing currency. I mean, that's a currency. Starbucks tokens, Starbucks points, they're all currencies, but you can't trade them easily and they debase. So I think this is what we're testing here is something much Larger also the fact that in due course, once the AI overlords have taken over, we're just going to speculate on as well. We're just speculators by nature and we will speculate on attention. You know, the idea that something has attention, it lasts for a while and then goes. Is super interesting because in a world of AI, let's say Scott builds this nice SaaS platform that creates some music platform for DJs. And I think, you know, Scott's thing is brilliant. I want to copy it, I just ask my AI and it copies it in three minutes. So now what is the value of a company? Right? It's very difficult. It comes down to attention. And you're going to need velocity of capital to be able to deal with attention cycles that can be a day, a month, a year, an hour, an hour. You know, and that's what tokenization does really well, is because the old VC cycle of this kind of 7 to 10 year cycle, that's not going to happen because everything gets disrupted.
Scott Melker
You mentioned Libra, obviously, and I'm friendly with Moshe and the Aptos guys, which was basically the offshoot of Libra. So at least the early ideas found a home.
Raoul Paul
I'm on the Sui foundation on the board of that. Which is the other side of that equation.
Scott Melker
Exactly. And recently as an aside, David Marcus came out and basically said that Libra was killed by the Fed and operation choke point 2.0. But maybe that's a separate conversation, but it does lead to the question, in a tech driven administration run by a bunch of technologists, can a Libra launch, can Elon Musk come up with a stablecoin within Twitter, get quick regulatory approval and have a full financial system within X outside of the United States?
Raoul Paul
Dogecoin. You know it, I know it is. It is, right? It is. And the reason being it's really simple. Again, once you step back from all the stupid shit that goes on all day in Twitter and crypto markets and say, okay, Raoul is a content creator, he is on X, he can't get paid because Stripe doesn't work in the Cayman Islands. Add that to Indian content creators, Nigerian content creators, Filipino content creators, right? It's a shit show. So if he wants to bootstrap a much bigger, more powerful network, you need a universal system of which you can make payments. And Doge is an easy one because it already exists. He's not launching it, he owns a ton of it. And he's already talked about it being the currency of Mars. You need it for a Whole bunch of things. So the funniest thing, I mean, he keeps telling you he's going to do it. You don't call the government department Doge. He's telling you what he's going to do. Now, whether it's in this four years, I think it will be. I think he will shoehorn it in some way. He won't say, and here's my megapolis, X Inc. And everything is using Doge. He'll just introduce X.
Scott Melker
He'll just slowly integrate and it will become the de facto currency of X. I think that's true. I want to go back to tokenization. You talked about how the Blackstones of the world would love for retail to be able to particip. For all of that to happen, we still actually need some fundamental changes in accredited investor laws in the United States. So we have the tokenization side, which would theoretically sort of democratize it and give access and I could buy $10 worth of this fund. But the laws still exist in the United States where if you're not making a certain floor income or you don't have millions of dollars in assets, you're still not allowed to participate in any of that. So it seems like if the blackrocks and the Blackstones and the JP Morgans, everyone of the world wants tokenization, they're going to have to focus on actually making laws or pushing through laws that can accommodate every man I hear.
Raoul Paul
And who knows if, if I hate the word. My sources, the people I'm speaking to know anything or not. They say they want to rip down the SEC and start again. And at the epicenter of that is these accredited investor laws, right? It is simply a. A million dollars these days is not what a million dollars was 10 years ago. But one thing, right? The other thing is who the fuck are you to say that somebody with a million dollars is more responsible over their money or is smarter or is more able or still wants to lose all of their money? And who's to say therefore, why you can out loud any bozo into Vegas and gamble their entire life savings. But it makes no sense. And it does make sense when you realize the financial industry did it on purpose. They did it on purpose, so they have to be the gatekeeper. And we're about to blow apart the gatekeepers. And the financial industry, to your point, is kind of saying, actually, we want those guys now, the retail. But I don't think retail are going to give a shit about some, you know, Blackstone version five.
Scott Melker
No, they're going to care about Some crypto index fund that's created for a meme index.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. I mean, they're not going to come in, honestly, for real estate stuff that does 8% a year. It just doesn't work. I mean, the basement of currency is more than that. Those days are gone. And the financial industry is going to have a wake up call if it thinks it can sell, you know, low performing product. That is for asset gatherers to make their money versus just owning Bitcoin.
Scott Melker
I was going to say, I think that if you need a prime example of that and someone who's showing it on the grand stage, you've got Michael Saylor at. Michael Saylor at MicroStrategy, obviously. Right. I mean, he's embarrassing all of them.
Raoul Paul
Yeah.
Scott Melker
I don't know how you can be a fiduciary at this point and not look at him and shake your head and say, damn it, I need a strategy.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. And he might not want to copy his strategy, but the strategy of having just it on your balance sheet is a great strategy. But don't forget, it's very difficult for many of these to do it. Look at the. Michael Saylor had to have some real gumption to do it because he had to fight a system. So for Microsoft to do it, you've got to fight all of the shareholders, you got to fight the government, you've got to fight everybody who doesn't want you to do this. You know, Facebook, Libra writ large is if Microsoft said, oh, we're going to stick 50 billion into Bitcoin on our balance sheet, the government's going to tap him on the shoulder and say, no.
Scott Melker
You'Re not even this government.
Raoul Paul
No, this will be different.
Scott Melker
Yeah. So that's why it seems like there's this massive unlock coming. So one of the huge stories, obviously when Microstrategy started to add Bitcoin to the balance sheet was the gap accounting rules that people weren't aware of. Right. You basically had to mark down your bitcoin purchase to the lowest point at any quarter and destroy your earnings. Right. So nobody was going to do that. Those laws were eventually changed last year, but interestingly, I think they just actually went into effect this week. And now we're seeing David Bailey from Bitcoin magazine tweeting, hundreds of public companies are about to put money into Bitcoin and saying that he actually knows and is seeing them and is talking to them. Maybe that wave is actually coming now with those laws quietly coming into effect or going out of effect.
Raoul Paul
Another thing, when you zoom out is people are like, yeah, the institutions are coming and corporations are coming and governments are coming. Well, for this asset to get from 2 trillion to 10 trillion, you need a shit ton of money. It kind of has to have adoption by major people at this stage because there's no way retail can drive Bitcoin from 2 trillion to 10 trillion. So it is the adoption wave. We were just lucky because this is the first asset known to humanity where retail were first.
Scott Melker
Yeah, you could front run the institutions and the big money.
Raoul Paul
We've managed to front run all of these fuckers.
Scott Melker
And you can still do it and.
Raoul Paul
You can still do it across the.
Scott Melker
Board, including bitcoin, by the way, in my opinion.
Raoul Paul
That's right, you're still front running everybody.
Scott Melker
So I don't know if it will happen, but you have the future President of the United States saying that he will make bitcoin a reserve asset. Non zero chance. You can still front that, run that by buying bitcoin. Because if the United States central bank adds bitcoin to the balance sheet, every central bank on the planet will be forced to do so, whether they like it or not, in my humble opinion.
Raoul Paul
But in our bizarro world is when you look at the crypto, Twitter, virtually nobody actually owns bitcoin. People have some, you know, their savings, but what they actually own is everything else. Because nowadays if bitcoin goes from 100,000 to 250,000, we're all like, oh, find me a better asset. This is shit. I'm like, I mean, for normal people, that is the greatest asset of all time.
Scott Melker
That is not Raoul's opinion. For those of you who are going to clip this and make a viral clip of us saying that bitcoin is shit, neither of us believe that. We laugh.
Raoul Paul
No, no, thank you, Scott.
Scott Melker
They'll clip that out too though. So we're screwed anyways.
Raoul Paul
You're so burnt like me from this. You can.
Scott Melker
Well, you and I did a last time we talked about meme coins. Bitcoin maxis went crazy and we were not even in any way saying, hey, we love meme coins. We were just saying they bring a lot of liquidity to the chains that they're on. Factual.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. And you know what, if you want to play, do it with very small amounts of money because you're going to lose your ass. And then what's his name, Krueger or whatever his name is starts going, hey.
Scott Melker
Freddy, Freddie with it.
Raoul Paul
I mean, what? Really?
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean that, that, that happens. But I'll let you continue but yes, the people, the speculators certainly. And that's why we see all, all seasons and these cycles in general, they don't just get bored over years that it's not going enough if it doesn't move for a week, they go to find greener pastures.
Raoul Paul
I know it's extra. I mean what a time to be alive. What a time to be alive. I mean, yes, look, there is an enormous amount of speculative risk taking but this is, and I've said this for a very long time now is the greatest macro opportunity of all time. Yes, you can be ultra safe and just own bitcoin and you'll do very well indeed. Or you can try and figure out how to make more money because really you've got a tailwind. Everything goes up when the music stops. A lot of this stuff goes to zero. But I don't blame people for playing the game and the game of the biggest mid stuff, that's a very big game indeed. When Ethereum started or Solana or Sui or APT or whatever it is, these things are incredible wealth generating machines and.
Scott Melker
There'S no friction overhead. Right. You talked about the dinosaur coins. I mean XRP pulling 5ishx. Right. Cardano had a huge move at the same time. Algorand hbar. Right. So many of these older coins that a lot of people said listen, these things can never go up like this again. There's too many bag holders, too much friction, too many people who are looking to sell on every pump and there they go in a matter of weeks it happens. So imagine what happens with the shiny new things like the ones that you just mentioned that hit blue skies and don't have people who are angry and have been holding the coin for four years and are looking to sell it. People have doubted that this cycle will be the same or that it will happen again. I just.
Raoul Paul
Well, you and I have been around in this space long enough.
Scott Melker
I think it's going to be bigger. I think it's going to be bigger.
Raoul Paul
I kind of agree. Unless something blows up. Global liquidity, something dramatic changes, which is where we started this conversation. I don't see a reason why this is not going to be a 2017 redux.
Scott Melker
Yeah, that's what it feels like. Yeah. Let me take this sort of flip side. Devil's advocate just we have Sui and Aptos and Monad and all the layer twos and everything coming online. It's a lot of supply. We still have unlocks from previous cycles that are coming, huge unlocks of other tokens. How A, how much retail do we need for everything to go up, right? I mean, how much interest is there going to have to be to buy all these things? These new pre sales and VC backed tokens that are going to all launch at the same time? I guess that's the first question. And B, how many of them are we going to actually need? Like how much block space? We used to argue like there's not enough block space for all the things crypto is going to do. Now it's like what's going to fill all of this space?
Raoul Paul
So there's an interesting structure to markets is there are more VCs and airdrops than there are secondary professional pools of capital in crypto. Call them hedge funds. It's quite funny because everyone's like those bad VCs, they get tokens early, they dump them. What's happening with Pengu today? Everyone's taking their cash machine and selling.
Scott Melker
It immediately it jumped a crap. I didn't really look, but I saw it pretty. A lot of red.
Raoul Paul
I don't know but they've all done the same and I've still got shrapnel of my Ape coin and all of the shit that I was like my MFA coin. You get given this stuff, it's like free money. Isn't it amazing? I've just been given ten grand, three days later it's worth twelve.
Scott Melker
I heard people who held a pudgy penguin at the launch got $85,000 worth of Bengal token. Anyways, it's a lot of money.
Raoul Paul
So anyway, so why there was the big fall is there's not enough secondary buyers because it's retail. The hedge fund industry, which I've got this asset manager xpan which invests in crypto hedge funds, there's not that many that are of any size and total size of that industry. Maybe today is maybe $10 billion. The traditional hedge fund industry, 4 trillion. So what happens is the VC's exit. Think of that as an IPO, early IPO and there's not enough asset managers to buy it. So prices fall 80%, 70% before they clear. And then these guys do their homework and say what do they want to own here? Do I want to own Aptos when it comes out and dumps? Or SUI when it comes out and dumps or Monad when it comes out and dumps. Retail could play that game, but they tend not to because the retailer always the IPO buyers. Oh my God. Penguins out. Today I must buy it smash. But I think it's just a Structure of markets thing. So I don't think we need retail, I think we need more institutional money into the hedge funds and the professional trading to have professional capital, lower the volatility and make the space a little more functional.
Scott Melker
Because it does seem that there's a lot less interest in the bigger name. Shiny new things like meme coins, Shiny new thing is something that's hot for an hour or a day or a week. But the big next layer, one that's going to revolutionize crypto, those VCs to your point, have been in it for years, probably if, you know, months or years. And if they're going to sell on those first unlocks, you're going to need a lot of, I mean generally speaking, a lot of buyers. But they've gone up and it hasn't even been a bull market.
Raoul Paul
The big investors like A16Z tend not to sell.
Scott Melker
That's right.
Raoul Paul
It tends to be the smaller shops who need the liquidity tend to sell the more kind of crypto native shops, they tend to be the sellers. But yeah, we are going to need a lot of liquidity to deal with this. And normally these unlocks really add pressure on the downside in the down cycle. And that's why these things go down 99% and then after that we can figure it out what's a good token. But the other point you made earlier is how much block space we need and what type. We are going to need an astronomical amount of block space if we're going to put the whole Internet on this. But are we going to need infinite number of block space providers? Definitely not. How scalable are the ones that are out there now? Most of them are very scalable and Ethereum will sort its shit out and it'll become extremely scalable as well. And therefore you kind of think there's not much room for others. Some will be more niche and some will be like for gaming and some.
Scott Melker
Will be the gaming chain, the NFT chain, the Metaverse chain, if that's a.
Raoul Paul
Thing could be, or it just could accrue to the top five, whatever those are. And Bitcoin being separate because it's not a smart contract, but the top five smart contracts and that wall will fight out like it was with computer manufacturers, like it was with email providers, like it was with. I mean it's everything.
Scott Melker
In this case you can make a lot of money on the ones that die before they do because you have the speculation cycle before you have an adoption cycle. And we all know that in the next six Months it's going to be.
Raoul Paul
And don't forget, these things never die. Tokens never die.
Scott Melker
Unlike FTT is trading at like a billion dollar market cap or something.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. You know, you and I know at some point there'll be an enormous rally in Luna because what a fucking meme. The thing that blew up the world last time. At some point we'll be looking around, it's trading at 50 billion bucks. You're like, what the fuck? But because these things don't die, the tokens never go away. Which is another bizarro world.
Scott Melker
Yeah, it's like trading Enron stock right now. Although I heard that they're coming into crypto now. Somebody bought the rights to enron.com or something.
Raoul Paul
You can make this shit up, right?
Scott Melker
No, you can't.
Raoul Paul
I always try and observe what is going to be the thing that we shake our heads up at next cycle in 20, 26, 27. Yeah. What is it going to be? We know memes. We know that it's stupid shit. And most against a zero. So that's not head shaking.
Scott Melker
We're already shaking our head at it and laughing.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, I mean, fart coin, we get it. But there's going to be something that we thought was really cool, like metaverse tokens. Last time all went to zero.
Scott Melker
I'll take you a step further. Buying the actual land next to Snoop Dogg's mansion for $2 million in the metaverse.
Raoul Paul
Exactly. So we need to figure out what this is going to be and we'll be both getting excited about. This is really cool. You know, this could. It's the AI agents is one of those where they're kind of pretending that these things are autonomous agents, but they're not.
Scott Melker
But some dudes just programming it to.
Raoul Paul
Do stuff because randos are launching crypto wallets and they've got some Jack GPT5 who says, yes, Scott, that's a great idea. And everyone's like, oh my God, it's alive. It's alive. So maybe it's that shit, I don't know.
Scott Melker
You mentioned fartcoin. I mean, last I checked yesterday, I think it was down about 100 million, but it was almost a $900 million market. CapCoin. We're seeing any signs of excess yet, but.
Raoul Paul
Genius, right? Fart coin. What a brilliant name. It's. It's so brilliant because it makes everyone from your kids to your grandmother laugh.
Scott Melker
Nothing's funnier than a fart.
Raoul Paul
It really, really angers Tradfi. They're betting on fart coins.
Scott Melker
Yeah, it's like the. The bigger the joke, the dumber it is, the better it will perform because really angers people.
Raoul Paul
I see it all over X. It's like, oh, my God, the Fed needs to raise rates. Look at fart coin. So that gives it unlimited attention. Attention is the game. You know, farts get a lot of attention until they don't.
Scott Melker
Maybe Powell will mention it in his next speech.
Raoul Paul
That's right. But as I said, farts get a lot of attention until they don't.
Scott Melker
Well, it's a passing fad, hopefully.
Raoul Paul
That's right.
Scott Melker
Generally. So how do you then, you know, position for the coming months? I think we all agree that odds are we see a mega cycle here and then we see a crash and then we see another peak and then we have a bear market and all the same things happen that couldn't happen because it's different this time. But, you know, how do you position? I guess, you know, we're pretty crypto native. I think we would be more likely to take some speculative bets on things that are maybe smaller that retail wouldn't have. I still think retail could pretty much buy a couple of the big layer ones and have a great ride. You know, I'm an average person.
Raoul Paul
I trade so little. I barely do anything.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Raoul Paul
So my entire cycle from the 22 low was switching, putting cash in, extra cash in. I didn't sell anything. Then adding, switching eth to Solana, and then it's been sold to sweet because it's been outperforming. That's basically all I've done.
Scott Melker
That's all I need to do in.
Raoul Paul
Two and a half years. And, yeah, I bought a couple of memes, of which they're less than 1% of my portfolio because I don't want to feel like the old boomer who's shaking his fist at the sky with anger. And I've got a decent Doge position because I actually think it's quite interesting. And here's the dirty, horrible secret is Doge has been harder money than bitcoin since it came out. It's gone up 500% versus Bitcoin since it came out.
Scott Melker
It's pretty astounding. Musk helped.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. I mean, look, I'm joking when I say it's all the people, but I.
Scott Melker
Joke about my early Doge trading all the time. And like, a penny was. There was no chance it was ever going to a penny. We traded it in sats against bitcoin. There was not even a dollar value attributed to dogecoin. When I traded it in 2007.
Raoul Paul
And look, people don't get confused. I'm not saying it's better than bitcoin. I'm just saying the most humorous thing is happening which is this stupid token that was a joke has actually held value extraordinarily well. Better than 99.9% of all crypto.
Scott Melker
And it's probably going to go much higher.
Raoul Paul
I know, so, so that's all, that's really all I'm doing. And as I mentioned before, I know you've not been a particular nft, but I have been scraping profits as I go into what I deem to be long term savings assets which is punk, high end digital art punk, you know, that kind of stuff. But also, you know, X copy and beeple and stuff. Because when people make wealth they end up buying art. Yeah, stories old as the it's and.
Scott Melker
Those are pieces of art. They're not 10,000 character cartoons. Listen, I told the, I've told the story quite a few times, but at the peak of the NFT market last time I was on some spaces for some reason they invited me as the NFT skeptic. And bored apes had a floor of like multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars. There was a bunch, it was like my face and a bunch of ape avatars. And I said guys, when the bear market hits, I promise you when bored apes drop below $25,000, I will buy one. And got eviscerated because you know, this was Bieber peak, Bieber and Eminem time and apes are going to a billion dollars. And I bought one when they dropped to 19. They hit 8.9 eth at the bottom of this cycle and ETH was beaten down and I bought one for like 19,500 bucks.
Raoul Paul
And if you want to, if anybody watching this wants to trash me, go and look for my tweet thread. I think it even became a substack of why I paid $400,000 for a bald ape.
Scott Melker
And I bet you get and I. And I bet and I bet you make money on that one day.
Raoul Paul
I think I probably will because a the price of ETH and because they're priced in eth which people don't realize versus meme coins that are part priced in dollars so you get the multiplier. And I think, you know, if you go sort this out and do stuff with it, which I think they probably will, I'll probably make money. But feel free to laugh at me because I bought the kind of. I remember it their peak. I remember it you bought cheap ape. But in the end that is the game we play.
Scott Melker
Yeah, $10,000 eth and the floor doubles from 20 to 40 here. And you're good.
Raoul Paul
That's right.
Scott Melker
And you don't even have a floor ape if I recall. So.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. So yeah, it's as simple as that. I mean the NFTs that I bought at the beginning of the year are probably doubled in eth terms and ether's 2x.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Raoul Paul
So I've made four times my money already and I haven't done anything yet. It's not even all time highs.
Scott Melker
It's interesting. I was at Art Basel with Micah Johnson, who is an artist and has aku, which is his character.
Raoul Paul
I love Micah. He's a lovely, lovely guy.
Scott Melker
Yeah, he's amazing. And you know, we were hanging out with his big statue there and I said, you know, I'm not on top of the NFT market. I was like, when are you coming back? You know, like when are we going to start seeing the NFT stuff? He's like, I'm really planning on things. He's like, but my problem was that I really wanted like to create value and not just make money, you know. And he's like, so I was building all these things and a business around it. And he's like, but I look. And he mentioned the same to you, said X copy and Beeple. He's like, these guys captured the zeitgeist. Their art has never really gone down. I can't speak to that. I don't know the value. He's like, people line up for every single release, you know, they know exactly how they could put one out every single day and make hundreds of thousands of dollars. And so I guess I didn't realize that there was still a corner of this market which was sort of that art side of it that, that never died.
Raoul Paul
That never died. Really did not die. It just, it just changed hands from people who needed liquidity. You know, people who needed liquidity gave it to people who had liquidity. That is all that happened at that end of the market. I focused a lot on that end of the market because it's really interesting. But the same happens with punks. And punks have been ripping in price apes have been going up because there is some social signifiers not to necessarily boast, but just to have been around and understand that, that it kind of says you're part of the club, you have a commonality of interest. Something that I'm not sure penguins do.
Scott Melker
But maybe I'm wrong But, but they are selling those in Walmart. So I guess there's a different kind of value proposition there, which is that pudgy penguins the IP perhaps, you know, accrues value and well, that's a good experiment.
Raoul Paul
We will see is does IP accrue to the token or equity?
Scott Melker
Yeah, that is going to be very, very interesting.
Raoul Paul
No, we don't really know how that works. So let's see.
Scott Melker
So you and I have both largely been on the. We put money in but don't take so much money out. Ride the cycles. If this cycle is as big as we think it could be, do you have an exit plan? At least partially. I don't think anybody here is going to say sell all your bitcoin. I think we all think it's going to a million dollars eventually. But is there some point here where it gets so nonsensical even if you just say, hey listen, I'm selling to get back in because I'm so confident that every sign of froth is here. We're going to get a down summer of 75% drawdown on alts.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, I mean how I'm dealing with this mentally is somewhere in the first quarter, assuming that it's a crazy old season, I will take a bunch of chips off, call it 20% and that I will do to sort out stuff that I want to sort out in my life. Lifestyle chip stuff.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Raoul Paul
And then you're de risked so nothing really matters after that. Then it's like, okay, let's ride the cycle, see how it goes and that's going to be okay. Do I take some more off because I want to buy a house in Spain or I want to do XYZ or whatever. Right, Fine. Would you put some in stable coins a little bit or you know, put in traditional market. So you've just got a plan B. Yes, everybody should do that if that's what you want to do. If it then goes to La La Land. Yeah, you might take some more off or you just ride the bloody cycle and forget about it. I mean I had, I was at a friend of mine's house for dinner in Palo Alto. He bought, I can't mention his name. He bought Bitcoin at $3. 2 million. 2 million of it. So that's a 66 billion dollar trade. Now he will have taken money off on routes just to pay for lifestyle chips. But whatever he's worth 5 billion, 10 billion, 20. Nobody knows, nobody cares. He never tra. He didn't trade ever. He didn't go oh, the cycle. I must sell out at the top and buy the bottom. He took some money off the table. Let's say you take 10% off. Say, will that cover my cost of living each year? You can take 10% off each year. And because the compounding gains of 100% plus you're going to make, that's a.
Scott Melker
Fortune living on a yacht.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. And people have got to stop thinking about the cycle. The cycle, the cycle.
Scott Melker
I agree with that. But I think that that applies more to bitcoin than random shitcoin you bought on the hype. That could literally be zero next time. And I guess so it doesn't really apply to you because you've basically rotate it into things you fundamentally believe in, at least for the time that you believe it. And you might rotate that into something you fundamentally believe in. More down the road.
Raoul Paul
I might get to the point is I can't.
Scott Melker
But if you're buying something that's part of this hype cycle, most of these altcoins are going to draw down 90 something percent at some point.
Raoul Paul
Yeah. And if I were to say at some point, I don't want to spend all this time looking for the outperformer, taking the risk. I would just buy bitcoin.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Raoul Paul
Go into bitcoin and do nothing. You could probably buy bitcoin and eth and do nothing for the rest of your life and you'll be absolutely fine. But there's a game to be played, which is we want to create more money for ourselves. We didn't have it at $3 and hold it till this very day and do a massive size bet. So, you know, for everybody, we want to make some money. We want to, you know, as everybody on crypto Twitter says, retire your bloodline. You know, it's like you just, I.
Scott Melker
Hate to tell you, your bloodline is going to retire all of your money by the second generation down. So you're not going retire your bloodline no matter what you do.
Raoul Paul
I don't have any kids either, so it doesn't matter. So I can retire myself.
Scott Melker
Oh, you could. You're good to go, man. You can, you could do whatever you want with, with this money. I, I think it's a exceptionally valuable exercise to think about it now, though.
Raoul Paul
Yes. And I do urge people and I will be very public about it. There was a first tweet, stuff that went out about this. I'm going to urge people to take some lifestyle chips off and just sort out their finances, whether it's paying off your mortgage or your car payments or your student loans or your fabulous holiday with your parents. Whatever it is, do something to de risk your life. Because we run obscene amounts of risk in this space and it becomes normalized. But just de risk your life. Then as the cycle develops, then you can maybe look for the next lifestyle ratchet. Do I buy a nicer house? That kind of thing. Because lifestyle is lifestyle and experiences is.
Scott Melker
All we have, all we got, man. I say that all the time.
Raoul Paul
We got nothing else. The money's irrelevant. It's the lifestyle that it can accomplish. So then you can lock in the next ratchet and then keep going in the trade. But don't. Yeah, I mean, to your point, remember, most of the space goes down 99% every four years. And the chances are you will get a 99% too, unless you just don't fuck this up.
Scott Melker
Yeah. If you can meaningfully change your life with some sort of profit, there's never a question that you should do that, regardless of what the asset is. I know we're out of time. Damn it. All right, man. Well, one day I'm going to come sit in that couch back there. It looks so inviting. Those chairs. Your bar stools are amazing, by the way. Those bar stools back there. Every time I find myself just getting lost in your house, you know, I might steal it and make it my green screen background.
Raoul Paul
That would be.
Scott Melker
Tell everybody I'm at your house.
Raoul Paul
Amazing.
Scott Melker
Perfect. Thank you so much. Always for the perspective. Anything. Any quick updates from Real Vision? Because I've got to imagine things are ramping up with the market there.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, there's a lot going on. Look, anybody who's here, we've built a ton of stuff on the platform. All sorts of incredible things like trading leagues with trade ideas. There's some. So this is really interesting. I'm looking at the top of the trading league on Real Vision. It's equities. I'm like really Quantum compute. Some guy nailed those things.
Scott Melker
They're bigger than Meme Coin cycle we're having over there.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, they got nailed that. They nailed a bunch of stuff. Hbar is in the top movers right now. It's like. Well, but it's. It's fascinating to see. But anyway, you've all heard about Real Vision come across. It's free. There's a lot of stuff for you there. And we've got our big crypto gathering event in Miami coming up. Oh, I should get you there, Scott.
Scott Melker
When is that?
Raoul Paul
Last week. Last weekend in Miami. Last weekend of January. I was thinking who's. Who's in Florida. Idiot. Yes, Email me. I'll send you an invite.
Scott Melker
Text me.
Raoul Paul
Yeah, so, yeah, so that's it. And really for everybody else is have a fantastic Christmas and New Year.
Scott Melker
Awesome, man. Thank you so much. Always inspiring to talk to you. It gets me really excited for the next cycle. I like your little bubble there. Very cool.
Raoul Paul
Don't know how that it just randomly does it. Whoever invented that was the most evil person I've ever come across.
Scott Melker
We can edit it out or we can just put one on my shoulder, too. Big thumbs up.
Raoul Paul
Thank you.
Scott Melker
Ladies and gentlemen, Raoul Paul. Awesome, man. Thanks so much. Have a great day.
Raoul Paul
Thank you, mate. Take care. Let's do. Let's go.
Scott Melker
Go.
Podcast Summary: "Raoul Pal Predicts The Biggest Bitcoin & Crypto Boom Yet!"
Hosted by Scott Melker on "The Wolf Of All Streets" | Release Date: December 22, 2024
Timestamp: [00:30]
Scott Melker introduces the concept of the "banana zone," a term coined by Raoul Pal to describe a unique phase in the crypto market. This zone signifies an extraordinary bullish period where traditional asset cycles are disrupted, leading to unprecedented growth and volatility in the cryptocurrency space.
Notable Quote:
Raoul Pal [00:00]: "People have got to stop thinking about the cycle. The cycle, the cycle, the cycle."
Timestamp: [01:14] - [04:19]
Raoul Pal elaborates on the early phases of market cycles, emphasizing Bitcoin's dominance as the initial driver of growth. He highlights that while altcoins and other cryptocurrencies begin to perform, Bitcoin remains the cornerstone, setting the stage for broader market movements.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [02:33]: "It's what your friend owns, not what you own."
Scott Melker [03:32]: "Right. We've still had this sort of sector by sector or narrative by narrative moves..."
Timestamp: [04:19] - [09:07]
The conversation shifts to the impact of the incoming Trump administration on the crypto market. Raoul discusses how Trump's policies, particularly regarding tariffs and liquidity cycles, could influence Bitcoin and broader financial markets. He draws parallels to the previous Trump administration, noting potential dollar fluctuations and interest rate changes.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [05:04]: "From September to the end of the year, the dollar rallied...now that changes."
Scott Melker [05:04]: "Obviously we have the Trump presidency incoming."
Timestamp: [09:07] - [12:02]
Raoul Pal presents a paradigm shift in the political arena, describing the recent election as a "coup by the technologists." He argues that technologists and billionaires have taken control, steering policies towards decentralization and technological advancement, which significantly benefits the crypto ecosystem.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [09:54]: "This is a coup by the technologists. They orchestrated this."
Scott Melker [12:02]: "I think it could also be skinned as the oppressor versus the oppressed."
Timestamp: [18:33] - [26:37]
The discussion delves into the evolving regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. Raoul emphasizes the importance of sensible regulation to prevent fraud while fostering innovation. He compares the current situation to Margaret Thatcher's impactful policies, suggesting that strategic regulatory changes can democratize finance and disrupt traditional gatekeepers.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [19:15]: "There's a bunch of degens who'll do anything to make a bit of money... it's pretty smart."
Raoul Pal [26:37]: "Tokens never die. So in our bizarro world..."
Timestamp: [28:38] - [35:04]
Raoul discusses the tokenization of assets, highlighting how major financial institutions like BlackRock and JP Morgan are moving towards tokenizing real estate and other traditional assets. He underscores the necessity of altering accredited investor laws in the U.S. to facilitate broader participation in these tokenized assets, aiming to democratize investment opportunities.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [29:30]: "If you give them a pump fun casino, they will scam each other until they all run out of money."
Scott Melker [35:04]: "But what it's showing you... the tokens never go away."
Timestamp: [20:36] - [43:03]
The conversation explores the role of meme coins and NFTs in the current and future crypto landscape. Raoul differentiates between fungible meme coins and non-fungible tokens, suggesting that while meme coins serve as social or community tokens, NFTs provide digital scarcity and persistent value. He envisions a future where tokenization captures intangible assets, revolutionizing industries like music and art.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [23:29]: "Meme coins are what I think are going to end up being social tokens or community tokens..."
Scott Melker [22:43]: "They come with some social signifiers... part of the club."
Timestamp: [44:02] - [56:53]
Raoul and Scott discuss personal investment strategies amidst the volatile crypto market. Raoul shares his approach of minimal trading, focusing on long-term holdings like Bitcoin and selectively investing in outperforming assets like Solana. He emphasizes the importance of de-risking personal finances by taking "lifestyle chips"—small profits taken off the table to secure personal financial stability.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [52:46]: "I will take a bunch of chips off, call it 20% and that I will do to sort out stuff that I want to sort out in my life."
Scott Melker [54:35]: "If you're buying something that's part of this hype cycle, most of these altcoins are going to draw down 90 something percent at some point."
Timestamp: [37:12] - [44:56]
Looking ahead, Raoul predicts a significant bull cycle akin to 2017, driven by institutional adoption and increased liquidity. He asserts that institutional investors will be crucial in propelling Bitcoin's market cap from $2 trillion to $10 trillion. Additionally, he discusses how institutions are front-running the market by investing early, ensuring that retail investors can still capitalize on these moves.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [37:12]: "Unless something blows up. Global liquidity, something dramatic changes... it's going to be a 2017 redux."
Raoul Pal [43:27]: "Tokens never die. They merely change hands from those who need liquidity to those who have it."
Timestamp: [56:53] - [59:09]
In wrapping up, Raoul advises listeners to strategically manage their investments by securing profits and de-risking their financial positions. He underscores the importance of focusing on lifestyle and experiences over speculative gains, advocating for a balanced approach to navigating crypto cycles.
Notable Quotes:
Raoul Pal [56:25]: "Have a fantastic Christmas and New Year."
Scott Melker [57:19]: "I think it's an exceptionally valuable exercise to think about it now, though."
Banana Zone Concept: A unique bullish phase in the crypto market characterized by unprecedented growth and volatility.
Bitcoin's Dominance: Continues to be the primary driver of market movements, setting the stage for broader crypto adoption.
Political Impact: The incoming Trump administration, influenced by technologists and billionaires, is poised to implement policies favoring crypto growth.
Regulatory Evolution: Sensible regulations are essential to prevent fraud while fostering innovation and democratizing investment opportunities.
Tokenization: The future lies in tokenizing traditional assets, requiring changes in accredited investor laws to allow broader participation.
Meme Coins and NFTs: Serve distinct purposes within the crypto ecosystem, with NFTs offering digital scarcity and meme coins acting as community tokens.
Investment Strategies: Emphasize long-term holdings, minimal trading, and strategic profit-taking to manage risk.
Institutional Front-Running: Institutional adoption will play a crucial role in driving crypto market caps to new heights, making early investment crucial.
Future Outlook: Anticipation of a mega bull cycle akin to 2017, driven by increased liquidity and institutional investment.
Risk Management: Importance of securing personal finances through lifestyle chips and focusing on stable, long-term investments.
Raoul Pal on Real Vision: Raoul Pal is actively involved in creating content and events on the Real Vision platform, including a major crypto gathering in Miami.
Tokenization Projects: Institutions like BlackRock and JP Morgan are exploring tokenization of real estate and other traditional assets, signaling a shift towards broader crypto adoption.
This summary encapsulates the key discussions between Raoul Pal and Scott Melker, providing a comprehensive overview of their insights on the current and future state of the cryptocurrency market.