SoftBank Buying Bitcoin? Institutions Are Stacking Hard | Crypto Town Hall

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets – "SoftBank Buying Bitcoin? Institutions Are Stacking Hard | Crypto Town Hall"

Release Date: April 24, 2025

In this episode of "The Wolf Of All Streets," host Scott Melker delves deep into the evolving landscape of Bitcoin and institutional investment in the cryptocurrency space. Titled "SoftBank Buying Bitcoin? Institutions Are Stacking Hard | Crypto Town Hall," the episode features insightful discussions with experts Mike, Dave, Mark, Carlo, Robbie, Zillion, and Alex. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of the key topics, debates, and conclusions drawn during the session.

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1. Introduction and Market Overview

Scott Melker kicks off the episode by providing a snapshot of the current financial markets:

• Gold and Bitcoin Performance:

  • Gold has experienced volatility over the past few days but is slightly up.
  • Bitcoin has seen a minor dip from its two-day high of approximately $95,000, settling around $93,000.
  • The Nasdaq and SPY (S&P 500 ETF) show modest gains, while yields are slightly down.
  • The Dollar has been fluctuating inconsistently, prompting discussions on asset correlations.

• Notable Quote:

  • Scott Melker [00:00]: "None of this is very consistent for what you would necessarily expect for either correlated or inversely correlated assets. I think that's worth digging into here."

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2. Institutional Investments: SoftBank and the Formation of "21"

The episode delves into a significant development where SoftBank, alongside Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Tether, has formed a new company named "21." Jack Mahler takes the helm as CEO, adopting Michael Saylor's strategy of acquiring Bitcoin using convertible debt.

• Scott's Highlight:
  • Scott Melker [02:05]: "That's the big eye opener. And Jack Mahler is taking over as CEO there to basically employ Michael Saylor's strategy of buying bitcoin with convertible debt."

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3. Macro Analysis with Mike and Dave

Mike provides a detailed macroeconomic perspective:

• Asset Performance:

  • Gold: Up over 26% YTD.
  • S&P 500: Down approximately 7%.
  • Bitcoin: Remains unchanged.
  • Market Vectors 100 Crypto Index: Down about 15%.

• Market Predictions:

  • Expectation of continued declines in the stock market.
  • Gold is projected to maintain its upward trajectory.
  • Cryptocurrency markets are likely to follow the stock market rather than gold.

• Bear Market Insights:

  • Mike anticipates a significant drawdown in the stock market, potentially leading to a recession.
  • He forecasts the broad crypto market might plummet by 70%, with Bitcoin possibly dropping 50% amid a normal drawdown and recession.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Mike [01:53]: "My base case is those markets are going to continue. Stock market continue lower, Gold continue higher. And crypto is following the stock market more likely than Gold."
  • Mike [05:22]: "The key thing is earning expectations are way too high. Earnings are going to have only one way to go, but downward."

Dave adds to the discussion by highlighting potential bullish factors for Bitcoin:

• Bullish Factors:

  • Anticipates a spike in unemployment leading to increased liquidity favoring Bitcoin.
  • Emphasizes Bitcoin's momentum as a strategic asset with growing institutional adoption.

• Debate Highlight:

  • Scott challenges Mike on the existing Bitcoin drawdown of approximately 32%, questioning the feasibility of an additional 50% drop.
  • Mike insists on his stance, emphasizing the potential for volatility and the need for proof of his bearish outlook.

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4. Bitcoin as a Leading Indicator

The panel discusses Bitcoin's role as a market indicator:

• Mike's Perspective:

  • Bitcoin serves as a leading indicator, reflecting broader market sentiments.
  • Recent price actions suggest potential selling opportunities.

• Panos Introduces a Bet:

  • A wager is proposed between Panos and Mike on Bitcoin's performance by the end of the year, debating whether it will rise above or drop below $94,000.

• Notable Interaction:

  • Panos [08:41]: "I would like to place a bet with Mike that by the end of this year, bitcoin will be much higher. Much, much higher."
  • Mike [12:03]: "I'll take it under 70."

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5. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Policy

Alex provides an update on the progress of establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve across multiple U.S. states:

• Legislative Progress:

  • Significant movement in states like Texas, Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
  • The policy involves educating lawmakers, crafting model language, and lobbying for adoption.

• Future Outlook:

  • Expectations to pass Strategic Bitcoin Reserve policies in at least one or two states in the near term.
  • Plans to expand and refine the policy framework in subsequent legislative cycles.

• Notable Quote:

  • Alex [51:15]: "Strategic bitcoin reserve policy is very radical policy. And the fact that we were able to pass it in chambers in multiple states is a huge, huge sign that there is a thirst and an appetite for this type of policy."

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6. Meme Coins, Utility, and Regulatory Scrutiny

The conversation shifts to the emergence of the Trump Token, a meme coin purportedly offering holders access to dinners with former President Donald Trump.

• Key Points:

  • Debate on whether the Trump Token qualifies as a security or remains a mere collectible.
  • Concerns over potential SEC regulatory actions and ethical implications of a sitting president endorsing a utility-based token.

• Panelist Perspectives:

  • Carlo emphasizes the collective nature of the token's launch and its strategic failure to appreciate long-term value.
  • Dave critiques the misconception surrounding mass adoption and Bitcoin's dominance, arguing that Bitcoin remains a distinct asset separate from altcoins.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Carlo [24:36]: "They can't ignore 70 companies now having it as a treasury. You can't ignore 20 states moving towards being able to put on their balance sheet."
  • Dave [21:15]: "The notion that the masses are in bitcoin, that's just factually not even close to true."

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7. Stablecoins and the Future of Payment Rails

Dave delves into the potential of stablecoins as the future of payment infrastructure:

• Advantages of Stablecoins:

  • Instantaneous payments eliminate the delays inherent in traditional banking systems like ACH and PayPal.
  • Opportunity for yield-bearing assets similar to money market funds.

• Industry Implications:

  • Anticipates mass migration from conventional banking to stablecoin-based systems.
  • Predicts significant disruption in how money moves, challenging existing banking fee structures.

• Notable Quote:

  • Dave [35:08]: "Anyone and everyone who wants to launch a payment rail and do it in a regulatory compliant way and not have any sort of yield tied to it, but just strictly be a payment rail is going to be very attracted to stablecoins this cycle."

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8. Industry Events and the Road Ahead

Robbie and Zillion discuss the upcoming Token2049 conference in Dubai, highlighting its significance as a barometer for the crypto industry's health.

• Conference Highlights:

  • Anticipation of increased attendance (expected up to 25,000 participants).
  • Emphasis on networking, portfolio growth, and witnessing groundbreaking projects.

• Challenges and Opportunities:

  • Addressed past issues with artifact collections and the importance of decentralized infrastructure.
  • Encouraged participation to foster innovation and highlight diverse global projects.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Robbie [41:34]: "We're looking forward to a very interesting second half of the year."
  • Zillion [45:11]: "Mine, by the way, is an after party. So it starts at 11:30 and it ends at 3 in the morning."

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9. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Alex provides a final update on state-level Bitcoin reserve policies, emphasizing the momentum and future prospects.

• Strategic Outlook:

  • Continued advocacy and legislative support necessary to cement Bitcoin's role in state financial strategies.
  • Optimism about overcoming past legislative hurdles with sustained efforts and policy fine-tuning.

• Closing Remarks:

  • Scott encourages listeners to follow the panelists for ongoing insights and highlights the importance of staying informed through platforms like Twitter and upcoming industry events.

• Notable Quote:

  • Alex [51:26]: "Strategic bitcoin reserve policy is very radical policy. And the fact that we were able to pass it in chambers in multiple states is a huge, huge sign that there is a thirst and an appetite for this type of policy."

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Key Takeaways

• Institutional Adoption: Major players like SoftBank are making significant moves into Bitcoin, signaling growing institutional confidence.

• Market Predictions: Experts are divided on Bitcoin's short-term trajectory, with some anticipating substantial downturns amidst broader market bearishness.

• Regulatory Developments: Progressive strides are being made towards establishing Strategic Bitcoin Reserves in multiple U.S. states, laying the groundwork for Bitcoin's integration into state financial systems.

• Emerging Trends: The rise of meme coins like Trump Token introduces new dynamics and regulatory challenges within the crypto ecosystem.

• Future of Payments: Stablecoins are poised to revolutionize payment infrastructures, offering faster and more efficient alternatives to traditional banking systems.

• Industry Momentum: Upcoming events like Token2049 are pivotal in gauging the crypto industry's health and fostering global collaboration and innovation.

This episode underscores the intricate interplay between market dynamics, institutional strategies, and regulatory frameworks shaping the future of cryptocurrencies. Listeners are encouraged to stay engaged with industry developments and participate in ongoing discussions to navigate the evolving crypto landscape effectively.

Transcript

[Scott]

Morning, everybody. Welcome to Crypto Town Hall. It is Thursday, April 24th. We have the show every single weekday here on X at 10:15am Eastern Standard Time. I love looking down at the panel and seeing so many friendly faces. It really is amazing that we get to host and have these conversations on a daily basis with some with such absolutely brilliant minds with such incredible insights. We have friendly debates and arguments and conversations about everything that's happening in markets and in crypto, of course, as a whole. And we have a lot happening in markets today. Taking a quick look. Gold had a rough couple days, but up slightly today. Bitcoin down at the moment slightly from yesterday. But obviously two days ago we had that massive move from around 87,000, topping around 95,000 before seeing a bit of a breather here. I don't think that's particularly a big deal. Nasdaq up slightly today. Stock market spy up generally and yields down slightly. Dollar had bounced over the last couple days, but turning down as well. None of this very consistent for what you would necessarily expect for either correlated or inversely correlated assets. I think that's worth digging into here. So before we get into the title story here, which we discussed a bit yesterday, which was is the new company 21 formed by Bitfinex, Canter, Fitzgerald Tether and of course SoftBank. That's the big eye opener. And Jack Mahler is taking over as CEO there to basically employ the Michael Saylor's strategy of buying bitcoin with convertible debt. Before we get into that, maybe we should just set the table for the macro. And since I have my macro Monday buddies, Mike and Dave here, we'll start there. Mike, how are you guys? How are you looking at this right now?

[Mike]

Well, good morning, Scott. I think it's important to point out, like you said, start out with Gold, one of the best performing assets this year. And that's with the S&P 500 down about 7%, gold's above about 26% and Bitcoin's unchanged. That's a pretty good good show for bitcoin. But you look at The Market Vectors 100 crypto index, it's down about 15%. My base case is those markets are going to continue. Stock market continue lower, Gold continue higher. And crypto is following the stock market more likely than Gold Gold. It's not a big shift from what I mentioned earlier in the year. The key thing that's changed as we know this year is we are finding out how volatile Mr. Trump is. And the bottom line is I just rope in Some of my colleagues, Bloomberg Intelligence and Bloomberg Economics are expecting a 1/3 drawdown in the stock market. Now we've got through a bit of that means another 20% in a normal recession. They're tilting towards recession. I think that's the key thing. As you look at every demand estimate revision for all earnings, gdp, everything on the planet, it's all tilting downward. And you're, you got to ask yourself what stops it? I like to point out where did it start from? Now at the end of last year we reached the highest market cap in the US versus GDP and versus the rest of the world in about a century. And now we're reverting that with good reason. So it's become prudent money management on a global basis to sell US assets. Unfortunately because they just went up so much. Now when it's become prudent, you're supposed to look to do that. So but it's a great trading year and I think that's what we should look at. For my background trading leverage futures, which is typically 20 to 1, you know, from the 90s is this to me is just a tremendous trading year. We've had some great opportunities. So for instance on April 7th is when the Vix reach its height 60. That's the same day that the S&P 500 bottom around 5,000, the 10 year note yield bottom around 4% and Bitcoin bottom around 77,000. Now those are closing prices. I use those because it's basically v wat prices. It's the price on the end of the day your average person can get in. Yesterday bitcoin jumped up on the day. So I look at it as those are great buying opportunities. Today's yesterday was the first day to sell and test the market. So as a trader you look at, okay, it's jumped up to unchanged on the year. You look to sell it, make it proof strength. And that's the way I think a lot of traders are looking at it. And that's why I'm looking at Bitcoin is a great leading indicator. It gave you a chance to trade it at a good low. It just gave you a chance to sell it at a good high. And to me the base case is I still, like I said, if we have a normal drawdown this year, the biggest drawdown in the US stock market since 2000, 2009 was about 18% in 2022. And that year Bitcoin dropped about 78%. This year I think can easily drop 20, 25, 30%. So I fully expect the broad crypto market to drop 70% and Bitcoin somewhat up in the air. I think it easily should drop 50% in a normal drawdown and a normal recession. Some things that market haven't seen in a while. So to me that's the tilt. The key thing about gold is it got way too expensive at 3,500 an ounce. It's very stretched. I wrote a lot about that. Certainly on a historical, you have to go back to the 70s and the most recent comparison was basically 1934 in terms of being up 32% on the year. And that was a year after we debased the currency. So I look at gold as very stretched and leaning over to I'll end with this. I think the year will end with risk off assets like gold and long bonds being the best performers and risk on assets like cryptos in bitcoin being some of the worst performing assets.

[Scott]

So I have to ask you this, Mike. Bitcoin from Pete to trough already had a drawdown of roughly, let's call it 32%. I haven't looked exactly, but it was somewhere around there. I thought, okay, 31.95%. Good guess. We've had spy from peak to trough corrected 22%. That's a pretty big correction. And we obviously had the NASDAQ corrected even, even more than that. So talking about, you know, this broader market correction of 50% for Bitcoin, we already did 30. Are you saying 50% from here? 50% from the highs, from the high. Some would say in this new environment that we've actually kind gotten that bear market. You know, it happens.

[Mike]

So that's a good point. The key thing to remember in bear markets is they give you false hope and massive trading opportunities, massive short covering rallies. I stick with my view and my colleague Gina Martins that we are in the early days of a bear market. In the stock market, earnings expectations are way too high. Earnings are going to have only one way to go, but downward. Particularly as we face one of the number one forces for increasing earnings for last decades has been offshoring. Now we're ending that. Of course we have the fiscal that's getting shut off, we're ending that. But overall I stick with my colleagues who know better than I do. And so the fair value from Bloomberg Economics in a recession and Bloomberg Intelligence is 4000. The S&P 500, that's only a 1/3 drawdown. So I don't say. The thing is, you kind of remember we've had gotten so accustomed to a market that goes down and goes straight back up for 15 years. That trade is over in my view and there's a good reason for it to be over. I mean it's a finally time we revert maybe 50% of the rally in the stock market from 2009 to the peak last year. That's my view. That's why I think things are sticking. I need to see proof of that being otherwise. So that means if you get that normal 50% drawdown or even 1/3 drawdown the S&P 500 mean you go down and you stay down for recession. Remember the Fed is even started easy. We haven't even started massive pumping of fiscal stimulus which you'll need. This is just early days and we still see of unemployment at 4.2%. Typically it goes up to 6%. These are. It hasn't even started and maybe we'll get lucky. But the key thing I'm watching is I look at that pattern of the 200 day moving average in the 10 year note yield it's rolling over just like it did in 2007. Some of us on top of that trade and look at that pattern of the 200 day moving average of Vix. It's bottoming just like it did in 2007. What stops that is the key things I look at. Trade it, take the opportunity. And the first opportunity I saw so far this year for a decent trade was we all saw when the Vix is at 6 you're supposed to buy every your choice of risk assets. I love the fastest horse in the race when you're bul but it pumped up to unchanged on the year and gave you a first chance to maybe short it and we'll see how if it can prove those shorts wrong. That's my point is we're at the stage now you're supposed to be looking to sell rallies and risk assets and make it prove you wrong.

[Scott]

74 to 95 was quite a move. That's a, that's a very tradable move. Regardless of what you think. I do agree with you there not saying I don't think it goes higher but that been a nice, nice move and a lot of us here, I know Dave and I we discussed this at length when we were buying those mid-70s levels for a lot of the reasons that Mike just laid out. Regardless of your kind of macro view that it looked like there was a huge bounce coming. But I think Dave, we both probably agree this is going much higher and I'd like to get some other people's opinions too, but Dave, go ahead.

[Dave]

Yeah, I mean, look, it's really strange because I agree, I think that unemployment is highly likely to spike, which is part of my bull case for why I think bitcoin is going to screen later in this year. Because once unemployment starts going up, you're going to see liquidity come in. I agree that the liquidity I believe in this case will be more towards bitcoin than towards risk assets in general, because those risk assets in general are going to have a hard time having profits going up. When you literally. Mike said it, he nailed it. I mean, the hate junk. Hear me again.

[Scott]

Yeah, I think you got a call.

[Dave]

Stupid junk call. In any case, the globalization engine ending or at least being severely constrained is a huge problem for corporate profits. So I agree there. But I feel like Mike when he talks about Bitcoin is like Sideshow Bob stepping on the rakes. Anyone who remembers that from the Simpson. It's like we've seen massive trend toward delinkage. And what you're seeing, it's because of adoption. I mean, you can't ignore it being considered a strategic asset. You can't ignore 70 companies now having it as a treasury. You can't ignore 20 states having it one way or another moving towards being able to put on their balance sheet. You can't ignore momentum towards a strategic reserve in the United States. You can't ignore softbank investing into the cavalcade of investing into it and the game theory with it and claiming that past relationships are going to be into the future. When those things are happening, it's a problem. And empirically the market is starting to figure it out. And we've seen that. And I think that the fact that it's uncorrelated is really because it's an option on whether it's going to become the global store of value. And Bitcoin is clearly gaining momentum and that momentum is important. And you can't do technical analysis without understanding what momentum is.

[Scott]

Mark, I would love your take here. Mark, if you're there, I would love your opinion. Otherwise, people, go ahead, raise your hands, jump in with your opinions. Panos, go ahead.

[Panos]

Yeah, I kind of just caught the end of what Mike was saying, but it just sounded way too bearish. And they've brought up a lot of really good points with. When it comes to Bitcoin with strategic reserve institutions buying, nations buying, then you've got, you know, if you look at the, the macro, you've got quantitative easing that's gonna, that's gonna start probably rate cuts starting in June. Like this is a recipe for a bull market for risk assets. And it, it's very, this, this market is, is very similar, I think, to the 2017 bull market. When it comes to bitcoin, I'm seeing a lot of similarities. And I would like to place a bet with Mike that by the end of this year, bitcoin will be much higher. Much, much higher.

[Mike]

All right, I'll take the bet. What's our, what's our conditions?

[Panos]

Okay. I think we should figure out a price point first of all. Like, you know, you, you think it would be under a certain price and I think it'll be over a certain price. Let's figure out what the price point is.

[Mike]

How about unchanged in the year, about 94,000? I'll take it under 70.

[Panos]

Hold through it. Say that again. Unchanged for the year.

[Mike]

No, unchanged in the year is about where it is right now. 93.

[Scott]

Okay.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Mike]

So I'm happy to take it under 70. Maybe we can use what, 20 different. 20. We can use 20,000 if you want, as a even point.

[Panos]

So you're saying. So okay, what's the date by this to say by this November, December time, you're going to end it the year? Let's just take end of the year. So you're going to say under 70,000?

[Scott]

Yeah.

[Panos]

Okay. Yeah, I'll take the over on that for sure.

[Scott]

Shouldn't we just do either? I mean, shouldn't we just say above or below 94?

[Mike]

We could do that.

[Scott]

Isn't that the most sensible bet? I'm not trying to, I'm not trying to move in on your spread. But isn't it just natural, either it goes up or it goes down by the end of the year?

[Panos]

Well, the thing is with that, Scott, is Mike said that we're going to go into a bear market. And I mean, if bitcoin ended the year at 94, would that really be a bear market?

[Mike]

So how about how we do this? I just point out, if you look at virtually every crypto index, most 200 day move, they're pointing out they're already in bear markets. Yes, I understand how bitcoin's different and everybody tells me that it's great. I get it. So how about we just do up or down 10% on the year? Up, up 10%, you win. Down 10%, I win. And anything between will just consider noise because it's, you know, it does trade at 40%, 45% annual volatility. Sure, that's more fun.

[Scott]

Well, we'll start a group offline to discuss. We're gonna. I don't know if it's gonna be a big bet or if it's gonna be more steak, but I feel like between Dave, Mike and I, we already owe each other so many dinners I can't even keep.

[Dave]

Sounds good.

[Scott]

At the end of the day, I'm buying them all. Okay, Mark, you're. You're up. Hey.

[Mark]

Hey. Yeah, it's hard not to talk about price here, but the movement in April still is shocking. Bitcoin and we haven't heard many people sort of either say, you know, never saw it before and you know, give. Give reasons why. Was it softbank etc. So any input from the crowd here on that I'd love to know because.

[Scott]

Are you meaning the bid that's brought it kind of up to 94 in the midst of all this?

[Mark]

Yeah, just month date. Last night's close up 13.6%. Gold up 5.4% on the month, equities down 3 or 4%. I mean that's. That deserves obviously a whole show and a review on market structure. Was it, was it who was buying? Was it just people punting? Was it real buyers? You know, I haven't seen, you know, glass note or. Yeah, check and change work. It's a little bit constructive. I know he thinks 94,000 is important, but sustaining that, guys, was not on my bingo card. Even though a lot of us are constructive in April, since April 2, to have that outperformance. So that's one thing I want to definitely continue on and the other one on this, if we have time, Scott, is just the reaction function in the economy. Can this be pulled back? What Trump's done with tariffs, what, what are. What's evidence of permanent damage to. To trade and growth that will lead to what Mike's calling the bear market and that his team is, you know, down 30%, which I agree with. I think we are headed that way. Those are two. Two channels I think are worth. Or threads worth pulling on.

[Scott]

I want to go to the panel, but I'll just say, Mark, in the last two weeks we've seen Sailor again in the last few weeks buying billions worth in total that has to contribute maybe GameStop spot 1.8 billion we just saw. And Mike, we should talk about this. We just saw a massive reversal in outflows of the products. I think we had a billion dollars in one day. And we now know, as the title here says, that whether they owned it and didn't tell us or had to buy it, to do it, that Softbank had to basically buy a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin to participate in this company. 21. I don't, I haven't really looked at volumes, but you know that's, it's a, it's kind of a rounding error on daily volumes, I guess, or for a month. But you're talking about sustained bids of five, six, seven billion dollars just right there last week or two.

[Mark]

Yeah, and, and that retail didn't really puke. The ETFs there was bleeding. But not, not the kind of outflows that you've seen in some of the tech ETFs.

[Scott]

Yeah, the. Even Mike, I mean Mike, we've discussed this, but you've over the last two weeks said, wow, Bitcoin is showing impressive divergent strength.

[Mike]

Yes, but that's exactly the point. It was a great trade. It got to that key pivot unchanged in the year. The key thing to remember here is some of us who, a lot of you in this space are very smart, were in this space very much early days when it was insider market had nothing but upside when people like Trump and Larry Fink hated it. Now the masses love it. And you have to understand what's driving inflows.

[Scott]

Price.

[Mike]

Price is everything. Everybody who's buying it now under understands they're buying a very, very volatile risk asset that has millions of dependents and it has to go up. That's my point. I've never seen an asset this, with this much risk. Risk of going down, meaning the stops will be exponential if it starts trading lower. That's the point. It just says so much risk here. So what's happened is ETF flows are falling price. The biggest ETF flows this year have been and if you want to compare Bitcoin's maybe somewhat flat up a couple billion. Gold's up about 25 billion. Again I'll point out, still stick with gold. It's expensive here. But that's the key thing is now that's in the mainstream. The things I wrote about for years, once it got in the mainstream through ETFs, that's when the trade's mostly over. And that's my point is everybody pointing at all the buying is that's when the insiders say oh, thank you very much. It's in mainstream. Is that when you're supposed to buy? Most people know in this space though, that's when you're supposed to say thank you, I made a lot of money. Where's the next trade anybody hates? This is the difference now. So I, I'm, I, you know, I wouldn't mind getting stopped out in my outlook for going back to 10,000. But I made the exact same call in February 2018 when it peaked around 10,000, the X11000. The bottom was 3,000. It was just a normal bear market. Remember the stock market was down about 4% that, this, that year so far it's doing great. But if we end this year, which I think with the stock market down to 20% in bitcoins up now, that's a substantial statement. But it hasn't happened yet. I need to see the beef.

[Mark]

So Mike, are you saying that retail is the last stop on the rally train that everyone dumps on not retail?

[Mike]

No, this is, this is the masses getting in. When you point out people taking inordinate risk on their balance sheet with a highly volatile risk asset and they're getting out of, you know, refocusing away from their business, which microstrategy did. You know, you're supposed to be an income producing business and you're supposed to use your cash to, you know, to help run that business. And you're focusing on buying things like cryptos and bitcoin where, you know, remember there's still a lot of volatility here. Your risk is it distorts from your business. If it goes down, it distorts from everything and then you have to pay for that. That's my point is I've never seen an ass get more risky on going that it goes up than now. And particularly with the stock market, potentially in a bear market it might show that divergence. But again I point out is everybody says bitcoin is different than the rest of the cryptos. I just overlay it has, you know, the bitcoin to gold ratio. So I'll end with another thing. Bloomberg, Bloomberg Quant team has a fair value model on the gold. The bitcoin to gold ratio, currently it's about 27. It peaked at 40. We all kind of knew that was a pretty good peak. It's dropped to 25. That's a pretty good support. But their fair amount value measure shows it closer to 17. Right now that's just showing the fair value. And bitcoin's still expensive versus gold. You know, again, show me the beef. It's got to at least stay up on the year. With the stock market going down now, everything again is understand the correlation. They all bought them on the same day. So gold went up. So the thing is treasuries, that's my point. I think people realizing this is great as long as the stock market is up and the stock market is recovering.

[Scott]

Alex and Dave.

[Alex]

Yeah. Hey, Scott, thanks for having me. I'll double down on what Mike is saying. Look, just the headline of this space, Softbank buying bitcoin. That feels like top signal or at least a reason to be bearish for exactly what Mike is saying. Like, just look at the track record of that fund, how many tens of billions they lost on Uber buying it at like peak, peak valuation. So, yeah, that's my two cents.

[Scott]

Yeah, in this case, that is a funny take. And obviously hundreds of millions, billions or whatever and we work was nonsense, but this is just simply buying bitcoin. It's not, you know, to participate in this larger fund with Tether, Bitfinex and Kenner Fitzgerald. So I think it's a little different than them taking it as like a investment position personally. But yeah, go ahead, Dave.

[Dave]

So there's two massive issues that I have with what Mike said. The first is just factually nonsense. The notion that the masses are in bitcoin, that's just factually not even close to true. Yeah, it does have a higher penetration among less rich people than stocks. That's true. It definitely has a higher representation in poor and minority people than stock markets do, which is. Is not a bad thing. It just happens to be true. But among millionaires and billionaire portfolios, it's very low. The fact that, that every time you say masses are going into bitcoin, you look down and you see funding rates that are spiking. You see lots of speculation. You see derivative markets leading. We've seen none of that. It's literally none of that. The funding rates during the rally to over 94, which, by the way, I agree with Mike, I actually called it two days ago, that that's a. That is a good technical shorting position with tight stops because we'll probably go fall back into a trading range for a bit to consolidate these gains. So it's not that I don't disagree with him on trading and it's public. It's a video that I publish so I don't have to. This isn't Monday morning quarterbacking, but the notion that we are at mass adoption is so far off. Mass adoption looks like bitcoin with an extra zero on the end of it. Let's just understand that that's mass adoption at these price levels. We're not even scratching the surface of it. Mass adoption is what bitcoin is pushing towards the monetary value of gold. That's what mass adoption looks like. We're not there. So the real question is are we trending there or not? And that is literally the question that we have to come to. So that's the first thing that I have just a huge problem with what he was saying. And the second, the notion of the dependence, it's just not true. Bitcoin dominance, just look at it and it's just not true. There people in the bitcoin space, Bitcoiners hate shitcoins. You know, Maxis do. I personally think there's a lot of value in the crypto verse. I think most coins will go to zero, but there will be quite a few and quite a bit of wealth created in the next decade. But that's really, that's a risk asset, right? I think most crypto outside of bitcoin are risk assets because they're like tech stocks only they're not stocks. They're participation in networks, et cetera, et cetera. And, but that's not dependent. And when you talk about show me the beef, I mean all you have to do is show them your chart of the bitcoin and Nasdaq and it is just not, they're just not correlated. I mean we saw it this week. Nasdaq dropped 3%. If I had made a bet with Mike before last week or any other time that we would have a day that the next time the Nasdaq drops over 3% Bitcoin will be up on the day, he would have thought I was delusional and probably given me 10 to 1 odds yet that's exactly what happened. And it's followed through by being staying relatively uncorrelated for the rest of the week. That's all I'll say.

[Scott]

Sorry guys, I'm having Mike issues as usual, but I know Carlo, you had your hand up. Go ahead. Good morning, Carlo.

[Carlo]

I should say good morning, Scott. Is it safe to pivot to a new topic? Because I'm intrigued by the Trump Token announcement yesterday.

[Scott]

I, I think let's finish this one up. I know Mike was about to kind of jump, jump in with the defense and then we'll pivot to trump token.

[Mike]

Just one the bitcoin. The NASDAQ 100 day correlation is 0.52. Next.

[Scott]

Done and done. That's Carlo, I love that you jumped there. I was going to talk about softbank and the 21 deal, Jack Ballers and all these things, but we can talk about that later. So go ahead. Good morning, Carlo. Trump token, which is supposed to be a Collectible and is obviously in no way, shape or form of security because it didn't go up at all because somebody promoted it. Now you get dinner with the President if you're one of the top, what, 220 crazy.

[Carlo]

Yeah. So I shared in your DM a, a post I just put up kind of asking that very question. Is dinner with top Trump holders a utility? Interesting question. I remember vividly being live on spaces. It was Mario Space, in fact, when this thing dropped and reading the terms and conditions and trying to figure out if this was an actual Trump token or if this was a scam. After reading the terms, it was clear to me that this was launched in a coordinated effort. Legal team looks like they had written robust terms and conditions and they were very clear that this was a collectible, a mean coin. There's been a lot of debate, there's obviously been a change in the regulatory climate with respect to how the SEC is looking at these things. And the SEC came out and kind of gave new guidance on what constitutes a meme coin. And then Trump, being Trump, always pushing the boundaries, announces this, what could be characterized as a utility, which is access to dinner with Trump. And now this begs the question, does this raise the issue of whether this has now turned from more of it to a utility based investment contract? What comes of that? Who knows? Because obviously, who's going to initiate, I have to guess that our friend on the other side of the aisle, Elizabeth Warren, once this leaves the Twitterverse, Scott, and actually gets into the mainstream news cycle, will probably be pulling her hair out on one of the morning shows talking about how this is an abuse of power, play to pay to play, so on and so forth. One interesting distinction, I'll note, is that when Trump launched, Scott, he did it pre inauguration when he was under a different set of standards. Now he's president and he's announcing utility on this token as the sitting president. So this is going to get interesting once it breaks out of the Twitterverse, I think.

[Scott]

I'm not sure if you guys can hear me. I got booted for a second. Now I'm a speaker. But I will say very quickly that Carlo, I was thinking about this and actually the NFT project, he did the same thing, right? With the NFT project. He hosted dinner for top NFT holders. So we do have some precedent of him doing this. And NFTs, by the same definition as they're calling meme coins they believe are collectibles. And he pulled that off during the last presidency when we had Gensler at All. So I'm not surprised he would do this because he has a lot of precedent and he's already done it.

[Dave]

I mean, Scott, I think it's important to make two points here. First, we could certainly debate whether there's conflict of interest where Elizabeth Warren will pull her hair out. I mean, honestly couldn't care less what happens to her. I mean, you know, it's, there's a certain point where someone who lies so much, she's, she's gone well past where anyone really should be listening. But in any case, you know, the conflict of interest being the President is the only real issue. The actual good thing is turning a meme coin into something with value. Not going to necessarily call it utility, we'll call it value. Passing on economic value or having a value to a collection or collectible or a meme is a good thing. It's something that is probably the only thing that should matter for meme coins. Otherwise they are pure Ponzi schemes. Right? If you can't have a monetizable community or some value of owning it, what's the point of owning it? Right? You know, because it didn't do anything and, and it never can. And so it's a good trend. But is that, you know, does that matter? So that, that's, that's the, that's the, that's the big point. Now the second, right.

[Scott]

But baseball cards, baseball cards don't get you access to the President. I'm not disagreeing with you.

[Dave]

I think in general you should, you.

[Scott]

Should add something valuable.

[Dave]

Let me, let me look. One of the guys at Coin routes, his previous business was doing baseball card collections. Baseball cards are valuable because of scarcity and the ability to hold them, collect them and keep them in good condition. That's not the same thing with meme tokens. It's the same thing with NFTs. That argument works well for NFTs, but it's not meme tokens. But the point I really want to make, Carlo, and what I really am curious you're feedback on is I think Paul Atkins, his first speech said something that is music to my ears because those who you guys have been listening to me rant about this topic for years now. I mean, I've been ranting about it for five years, which is that because the job of the SEC should be to make it such that the asset being designated as security is not only not a death sentence, but is like, yeah, sure, who cares? That's great. You know, it shouldn't matter. And the reason being A security matter is, is because the rules that we have for securities are archaic, don't understand technology, exclude people who aren't rich, and throw up competitive moats for cartels. And Paul gets that joke. And so when he talks about creating a sustainable, principles based regulatory framework for digital assets, the goal is to make being called a security not something that you want to avoid. And that is, I think, the real, that's the real nirvana. That's when real projects will go, I'm not going to say till Valhalla, because who the hell knows? It's basically a question of their value. But real projects and real entrepreneurs will rise to the top. I think that a meme that provides value is a teeny step in that direction. And so for that I think it's kind of interesting.

[Scott]

Carlo, what do you think?

[Carlo]

Yeah, look, man, I am actually more bullish than ever on the prospects for the future of this sector. And I'm excited to be back in the mix and available to advise people to actually build again. Because now we've pivoted to the point where we're rewriting the rule book. We're giving clarity on what those rules are going to be. And that is essential if this, if this entire sector is going to thrive and if we're going to see business come back to the United States. So I'm excited to see that Paul Atkins is taking this stigma away. And I absolutely agree with Dave because the regulatory hurdles and the cost of registering something as a security, especially something as obviously benign as a meme coin that might have some indicia of utility created such an impossible burden for anyone trying to launch in this space, cost prohibitive. And the fear of getting regulatory pushback if you carved out an exception but then got dinged with a warning or a, or more importantly, enforcement action, which basically bankrupted you. There's such a line of carnage in this sector of people that were destroyed and their dreams completely obliterated because of this continued lack of clarity. So I can't disagree. I'm excited to get back to work and advising people to build again because we're finally going to get clarity. And that's all I think anyone on this panel has ever wanted.

[Scott]

Mark?

[Mark]

Yeah, I, Carla, that's a great point. And, and Dave, when you talked about having security clarified, I, I agree with that. And you know, back to maybe what Mike was talking about, about where Bitcoin is and on the ratio to NASDAQ and the price I think we are in just whether it's the eye of the storm or the, or as far as crypto is concerned in bitcoin we had tremendous promise with all the executive orders, just one after the other almost to the, to what he promised, you know, day one. But I think we're going to have to wait till July. You know, even with the revision by the FDIC taking back the prohibition on launching crypto based products, they said go ahead, pick, do it yourself. You don't need our permission. You know, that's not really going to be done I think until all of the agencies agree on the plan in July and then they have cover, then they can do it. So yeah, Carlo, you know, tee up your, your emails and your business prospects but I don't think we're going to get a lot of movement, let alone adoption until they get cover from that president's working group which I am very constructive on in general. But again, I think it's going to be bitcoin first. It's the easiest one to get on your rails.

[Carlo]

And stable coins. I think stablecoins are going to open up a tremendous opportunity. It will probably be the meta of this cycle because anyone and everyone who wants to launch a payment rail and do it in a regulatory compliant way and not have any sort of yield tied to it, but just strictly be a payment rail is going to be very attracted to stablecoins this cycle.

[Scott]

Yeah, I 100% agree with that. I mean there's so many use cases that are going to be unlocked by legislative and regulatory clarity. Carlo, I mean just, or at least we're going to like hopefully unleash the innovation that's been sort of sidelined or waiting in other countries. Yeah, Mark, go ahead.

[Mark]

Thanks. Staying on that stablecoin point, what do you guys think the prospects are for income to be accumulated and distributed? Because that's, that's the killer app which in this higher interest rate environment which is going to obviously I think stay here unless there's true yield curve control.

[Carlo]

So I think Dave has strong views on that. Obviously it's been a non starter for both sides of the legislative bodies when it comes to utility and stablecoins. Not thrilled about it, but I know Dave, you have really strong position on this.

[Dave]

Yeah, I mean look, sometimes in negotiation you give people what they think they want, they go back, they end up happy and then they get obliterated because they didn't understand the next move. It's like, it's like this is very basic chess. So effectively stablecoins because the banks have lobbied really hard to say oh we need checking accounts because we need fractional reserve banking and we need to attract, you know, the what, 5 trillion or whatever of assets that don't pay interest to dumbass customers and take advantage of them, that we need that, that they're going to get the legislation to be payment rails and then they're going to be happy. Unfortunately, there's a problem for them which is as long if you've been noticing, pretty much every crypto firm worth, worth anything that has any retail associated with it are applying for banking licenses, pretty much every broker is going to establish crypto trading. And what does that mean? Well, what does that mean? Is that the, the notion of using ACHs and using underneath Zelle and underneath PayPal, PayPal is going to pivot to stable stablecoins faster than you can blink. Zelle is the banking. They're going to be left in the dust. And the difference for that is right now when you use PayPal or Zelle to transfer money from one thing to another, what happens is it takes at least three days for the money to really move. They may give you instantaneous credit, but you'll know that in the plumbing that there's a delay. With stablecoin that delay goes to seconds. Now what does that enable that enables an entire new range of products from crypto companies which will be yield bearing assets that are equivalent to money market funds. And with the SEC being this particular sec, expect tokenized money market funds to be approved by the bushel in a variety of different ways. And now what you'll have is a mass exodus from the banking system anyway to these new competitors which can offer instantaneous checking, instantaneous payments and sweeping the money market yields as as opposed to the kind of ridiculous way you have to go into savings accounts. And even then most money center bank savings accounts don't pay anything. So within a few years the fact that stablecoins don't provide yield is going to become irrelevant. It's just a few years of additional profits for the banks that they can make on the back of dumb uninformed customers. But the products are coming and the plumbing is too easy for it not to be there. That's my strong opinion. Carlo, did I disappoint you?

[Carlo]

No, I think right on point. And I think it is going to be wildly disruptive to the way money moves around and banks are excited about it because I think it's another way for them to arbitrage fees. But we still have hopefully the decentralized alternative for people who don't want to play in that ecosystem.

[Dave]

Oh, I think it goes beyond that. I mean, I think, you know, people look at, the banks are looking at tether like Homer Simpson looks at pork chops and they say, oh my God, look how much money they're making. Except what they don't understand is tether's primary use case. Almost its entire use case is for people to get dollars into the crypto system to be able to buy and sell crypto. So when you look at tether USD at tether dollar right now, for the first time in a very long time, it's gone to a slight premium. Three basis points, you know, premium. That is a very strong indicator of bullishness in the crypto markets of money entering the crypto market. And by the way, that tells you that I think that, I think that we are going to have a fairly constructive end of the week. But that's besides the point. In any case, the banks don't have that use case. Right. And Tether of course is going to lose some of that use case because you know, people are going to have other alternatives. They miss that fact. The what they don't understand is that instantaneous payments gets rid of float from their system and people won't be forced to hold money in checking accounts. Like right now I have a stupid amount of money in a checking account. I just do. I mean, you know, just because, just to fund myself, because I don't want to play close and fast to the wall, people are going to invent automated solutions that handle payments where you don't have to think about it, where you have your money in a yield bearing account, it will automatically bring it from that into your stablecoin, do the swap for you, make your payment.

[Scott]

Well, Dave, there's going to be, I mean, assuming on how the legislation shakes out, the industry wants a yield bearing stablecoin that you'll be able to just use. It won't even have to go in and out. If we actually get that in the.

[Dave]

Legislation, you're not going to get it. You had Perri Ann on yesterday and she pretty much said the same thing. I mean, I'd love to hear. Yeah, it's like they are, they are sticking on that. That's that, that's the hill that, that they want to die on. And honestly, that's sort of like the French putting up the Maginot line in, you know, before World War II. Right. You know, it's like, so the crypto industry is like, okay, well we really want this, we really want this. But you know, honestly, it isn't going to matter in the long run. And so get the clarity, get the ability to get these things out there and move on to market structure is probably the smart move for all the various lobbying associations within crypto. And so I think that's what's going to happen. I mean, it's just, it's really funny. I mean, you can see this developing. Someone's going to write a book about how silly the bank lobbyists and how much money they spent, you know, forcing that, that thing in only to give them, you know, a couple of years maybe of additional profits.

[Scott]

Yeah, that, that makes sense. Let's talk about what we can build when we have legislative and regulatory clarity. Robbie, I, I know I, I like force you to stay quality quietly while we, while we plow our way through macro and Bitcoin. But I always love having you here to give your perspective on what's coming next and, and what's exciting you. I think right now we're finally, at least from a price perspective, we're finally seeing a little action from, from altcoins, which makes people start to pay attention again and they start thinking about what's being built. Do you think that this could possibly continue and we can really start talking about these projects again?

[Robbie]

Yeah, I think so, for sure. I think that we kind of. At the beginning of the year, our house view was that the first half of the year was going to be quite choppy, euphemistically, and then the second half of the year would be something to look forward to. And so it's about putting your head down and building for that. And I think, frankly, what we're getting from our research team is reassurance that that's still very much the case. And so we're looking forward to a very interesting second half of the year. I think, frankly, in the world of content, one of the interesting stories of the day actually is what happened to Artifact? If anybody caught that, you know, it's a project that, that was sold to Nike and then subsequently closed down. But, but today the artwork for their NFT collections disappeared because somebody forgot to pay the Cloudflare bill.

[Scott]

Oh my gosh.

[Robbie]

So that, you know, that was a, a wake up call for, for whoever spent, you know, in aggregate, about $100 million on that collection over time. And, and it's a reminder that even when you put things on IPFs, that's, you know, you need to do it properly, you need to run your own nodes, you need to, you know, there are certain things about the tech that still need to be that's crazy, Robbie. I did not even hear that carefully.

[Scott]

That is crazy.

[Carlo]

Yeah, I have a quick update on that, Scott, if I could, because I actually made that, that very same comment today. And then someone clarified to me that apparently there was an announcement by the team and the announcement is Clonex and Animus collections are currently on their way to be decentralized, to arweave. So apparently they are pivoting and their infrastructure is shifting and I'm happy to, to put that in the nest just to clarify that for anyone.

[Scott]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Dave]

Still.

[Scott]

Still.

[Robbie]

Well, and I think, and I think frankly that's great because the point is that these things all have to be not just decentralized, but done in a proper way so that they are actually, you know, that they are actually fully decentralized and available for all eternity, because that's part of the promise of it. And, and it, it gives the tech a bad image when people see cases where it might be otherwise. Because, you know, that's, that's the whole point of it to begin with. But yeah, I think other than that, you know, really looking forward to next week, to be honest. I think, you know, in person events and particularly ones like token 2049 or consensus, some of the big ones tend to be good opportunities to get a pulse of what's going on with people's projects on the ground. And I think, you know, talking about SoftBank earlier, far from being a top signal, I think things like that and you know, them working with Cantor and stuff is just signs that, you know, the market is good because starting to reach ears and eyeballs outside of our own small Twitterverse, which, which is great news for the space.

[Scott]

Yeah, I think token, token849 next week is going to be a huge barometer for where we're at.

[Robbie]

Yeah.

[Scott]

Especially for like those of us who live in the United States, at least we have this like PTSD of past years where our conferences were like accountants and lawyers who were there to like holding down the booths to defend us for, you know, participating in unregulated securities. Every time you get outside the United States, especially Dubai or Singapore or one of those, it. It just reinvigorates you to believe once again how important the things that are being built are for sure.

[Robbie]

And they're scared. 20, 20, 25,000 people next week, actually.

[Zillion]

Oh yeah.

[Robbie]

So it's going to be actually much bigger than last year, despite was small.

[Scott]

In Dubai with the floods.

[Robbie]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Zillion]

Listen, just for my house event, my little house event in person, I got almost 2500 applications.

[Robbie]

So I hope you have a big house.

[Zillion]

Well, I mean, yeah, I mean it's like a, it's like a lofty downtown. But you guys are all invited. Of course. But yeah, I mean a lot of people and I'm very surprised on the diversity. And this is what I like about conferences in Dubai, also Hong Kong, places where it's easy to get into. You just bring people from all over the world and you see what people are actually building and working on and that's where the opportunity is. Because a lot of these great projects might not have access to capital, things like that. So I would really encourage the well established capital asset allocators to look beyond guys that speak in perfect fluent English and went to Ivy League and because there are some great things.

[Scott]

I went to the Ivy League and I speak impeccable English.

[Mike]

Exactly.

[Scott]

Which is terrible. It's actually my English. English is average.

[Robbie]

I was gonna say one.

[Scott]

One of those is the only language I speak. So. Welcome to America, buddy. Yes.

[Zillion]

But it's going to be great and hope to see you all there.

[Scott]

Yeah, I did not realize it was going to be that big. Honestly, I was like very hesitant to pull the trigger. I've been pretty much avoiding conferences. But I'm now I have decided as this week that I'm going and I'm, I'm really looking forward to it. I think it's going to be really, really fun. Zillion. That said, like, what are you looking forward to accomplishing there? Right. Obviously everybody has their events. The reason I've been so like anti conferences for a while is I feel like it's just a traveling party of the same people, like an excuse to go see each other in a new city every day, every week. That's how it feels to me. So like what are you looking to sort of accomplish there and what are you looking forward to seeing?

[Zillion]

Well, for me I'm looking forward really to see a new perspective on things. Right now I'm focusing on exploring the highest probability event in crypto, which is token failing and what we can build around that to kind of leverage that value, et cetera. So I'm basically trying to see who's actually building things at the end of the life cycle. Of a token. We see a lot of pump that fund kind of wannabes. And I'm thinking, okay, well that's the beginning of the life cycle. How about the end of the life cycle? Since things that is the highest probability event. So I'm just looking at, you know, who's who's allocating capital to that? Who's.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Zillion]

Who's building stuff around that? And. And yeah, so I'm.

[Scott]

Sounds like you and Robbie should be hanging out.

[Zillion]

Definitely, yeah.

[Scott]

Robbie, same question to you. Like, is this an excuse to get a. Get a feel for what's real? And what's kind of fluff is this, you know, visiting 100 portfolio companies? What is. You know.

[Robbie]

Yeah, I think for us it's a couple of things. So we have our portfolio day, which we DO at token 2049 in both locations, just because every time there's a big event like this, the chances are that we can get the most possible members of our investment portfolio in the same place at the same time. So it's a great time to spend a day just helping to network and troubleshoot and praise everybody. So that's. But also I think it's about just connecting with the wider community. It's a chance to meet people from funds who we co invest with projects that we've been incubating. I mean, it's literally just, you know, it's like the United nations for, for crypto projects.

[Scott]

Yeah. Everybody in one place is hard to get, especially for someone like you. I mean, how many investments you design MOCA have right now?

[Robbie]

About 5, 5 0. But you know, we have our portfolio day. We have about 250 people coming on Tuesday.

[Scott]

Yeah. I mean, so when do you get the opportunity to sit all those people in one room and then inevitably, since they're all your portfolio companies, you get them in a room and they find all these creative ways to work together.

[Robbie]

Exactly. And that only happens in person.

[Scott]

I thought that we didn't have to ever go back to offices, Robbie, you know, live our lives on. On the Internet. Yeah, well, yeah, it's exciting. You guys just made me actually a lot more excited. I. Last year was a pretty muted event and I don't know if that was the floods or. Because they were just trying to scale to Dubai. Obviously Singapore had been a huge event and I think that was the first token 2049 in Dubai last year. But it felt like 5,000 people. Maybe it wasn't.

[Robbie]

Yeah, I think ultimately they claimed like nine or something, but yeah, it'll be twice as big this year.

[Scott]

Wow. Okay.

[Dave]

Yeah, yeah.

[Zillion]

Mine, by the way, is an after, an after party. So it starts at 11:30 and it ends at 3 in the morning. So for me, that's a great way to, to kind of get everyone that I want to see. Because, because, you know, most of events, you know, End in dubai at around 1am Even like the party like, event.

[Scott]

They end quite early. I'm only going for three nights and I have my, my goal is to be awake till 4 or 5 o'clock every night, so I never get jet lagged when I come back for Formula one the next weekend.

[Zillion]

So come see me, send me a DM and I'll.

[Scott]

I'll come see you. I'm gonna be a night out. Honestly, last year I went to the conference for I think less than an hour and a half in the entire five days I was there. I mean, given the conference is only two hours, but everything always happens around the sides, you know, and the conferences themselves are just kind of a. Bit of a. Bit of a, you know, Super Bowl. I think it's.

[Zillion]

Yeah, that's what you show to your partner, right? That's what you show to your wife. And then you go to the side event.

[Scott]

She usually comes with me zillion, so. Oh, cool.

[Zillion]

So bring her over.

[Scott]

Oh, quick. So listen, we've only got a couple minutes left. I just saw Dennis, you joined. Maybe give us the quick TLDR on where we're at with the strategic reserves and everything you're working on.

[Alex]

Yeah, yeah. Glad to be here. Sorry, I was popping in and out like six times. I couldn't get the app to work. But finally.

[Scott]

Welcome to spaces, buddy. We're. I got kicked off. I got kicked off twice today in mid conversations. Good.

[Alex]

We're still dealing with it. You know, technology, it works when it's. It's great when it works and it's annoying when it doesn't. Yeah. So a lot of great things happening. I actually just finished up with the conference here. We had a panel with Grayscale Coinbase where we were able to get in front of a bunch of state treasurers and state financial officers. And honestly, the, the reception, because I've gone to three of these now, these state treasurers, the reception is much, much, much higher and much, much. There's just so much more interest from these folks who make these decisions. And like, at the end of the day, like, if you can't get a straight treasurer on board, like, it's going to be very hard to pass a bill for strategic Bitcoin reserve policy. But we're seeing a lot of progress. Obviously we're down to the finish line on the states that really have a shot of getting it done. There's a couple states where we really thought we had a great chance of getting it done this year that didn't pass but we will be back for a second year and a third year to get it across the finish line. Just keep in mind, you know, strategic bitcoin reserve policy is very radical policy. And the fact that we were able to pass it in chambers in multiple states is a huge, huge sign that there is a thirst and an appetite for this type of policy. So we've got, we're down to Texas, Arizona, we're going to see stuff in Ohio, we're going to see stuff in Pennsylvania. New Hampshire, just passed it out of the committee there. And it's going to be on the consent calendar. So that means it's going to move a lot faster. We've also got some really great progress happening in North Carolina as well. But we're going to see going forward that at least one or two of these states get this across the finish line. And that's kind of what I projected this whole time, right when we first started to work on this model policy, which is the basis for probably 95 to 99% of the strategic bitcoin reserve policies across the country. For those that aren't familiar, Satoshi Action, the nonprofit that I run, we not only educate lawmakers and regulators on bitcoin, we also craft the language and create models that those lawmakers can introduce. And we did not think we were going to have 25, 30 states doing this when we got started. We thought maybe there'd be a few lawmakers that would be interested. Obviously, all that changed when President Trump came out and not only endorsed the policy, but ultimately ended up through executive order, creating a strategic bitcoin reserve. And so it's just been an absolute fire hose of trying to make sure we get these things across the finish line as fast as possible. But people should just keep in mind, like when we first started, you know, each year we only passed two bills into the law. We passed two bills into law in 2023 to protect Bitcoin rights. In 2024, we did the same. And so we expect we'll match that same pattern. But moving forward, once one or two states does it the following legislative cycle, which is only, what is it, six months away, seven months away, that is going to be a period where we're going to see an absolute expansion as we fine tune, you know, what works for each of these states, because each state is very different. And it's also very different from the federal government. Like a federal, like a Senator Lummis type bill is not the type of bill that you can do at the state level for the vast Majority of these states, like some of these states constitutionally, could not do something like that. So very excited about where we are getting to the finish line on some of these states and looking forward to getting one, if not at least two across the finish line so we can break down that door. And in 2026 when we come back harder and faster and better with a more souped up policy, we're going to be in a much better position to continue to get this stuff across the finish line.

[Scott]

Absolutely incredible. Dave, go ahead.

[Dave]

A quick question, Dennis. So I saw something, I can't remember where it was. I was unfortunately I was scrolling on my phone but I thought I saw some one state, maybe two, talking about a law to enable their investment funds to be able to buy bitcoin in their investment funds as opposed to, forget strategic or anything, just, just you know, there are a lot of states, you know, Texas, California, New Jersey that have self run pension funds where they could invest. You know, can you talk a little bit about whether or not that's happening? Because that's, that's not a trivial thing either.

[Alex]

Yeah, that is happening. I mean that was, that was one of our first angles last legislative cycle in 2024 where you know, we hadn't really gotten to this point where people would be interested in actually doing, you know, the purchase of bitcoin for the state treasurer. So we're very interested in continuing to push on that and making sure those pensions have a shot to be able to buy bitcoin. I mean we've already saw multiple pensions. I mean Wisconsin, I think they hold like 250 or $300 million of Bitcoin. So we'll see more and more of that take place as well as we move forward. And yeah, definitely very interested in seeing state pensions along with state treasurers and their treasuries allocate into bitcoin as well.

[Scott]

Hopefully you can hear me. It's showing me as a connection lost once again. Spaces man, no idea what's going on with this thing. Dennis, thank you for joining here late. I'm glad we got that quick update at the end. Obviously we're at time here. Everybody in the audience give our incredible panel a follow. All these guys are amazing and gals, we, we do get girls up here like once a year. It's great. We did have Perry on yesterday but give them all a follow and listen to their insights on and off Spaces of course because they're the experts that we turn do otherwise everyone, we will see you back here tomorrow 10:15am Eastern Standard Time. Bye.