Podcast Summary: “The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is DEAD! Here’s What Replaces It”

The Wolf Of All Streets with Scott Melker, guest: James Lavish
Date: November 30, 2025

Overview of Episode

Scott Melker welcomes James Lavish to dissect current market dynamics and debunk the long-held belief in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Lavish offers a thesis: the four-year cycle is “dead,” replaced by a global “liquidity cycle.” Together, they explore macroeconomic trends, the impact of central banks and liquidity, the struggles of retail Bitcoin investors, the realities of poverty in the US, and the evolving landscape for “Bitcoin treasury companies.” With clarity and candor, Lavish ties these threads to first principles, offering a pragmatic but cautious outlook for Bitcoin's near future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead?

• Structural vs. Four-year Cycle (03:00 – 08:00)

  • Lavish argues Bitcoin’s price action is less dictated by its traditional four-year halving cycle and more by global liquidity flows.
  • Factors such as Bitcoin ETFs, regulatory clarity, and political shifts have permanently altered the landscape.
  • “We are no longer in a four-year cycle. We are in a liquidity cycle.” (13:20, James Lavish)

• Global Liquidity as Prime Mover

  • Bitcoin now responds less to internal crypto events and more to central bank liquidity policies worldwide.
  • Recent price stagnation and corrections, especially post-ETF euphoria, are attributed to contracting liquidity, not cyclical supply changes.

2. Anatomy of a Strangest Bull Market (01:55 – 06:00; 24:57 – 30:47)

• Despite significant price appreciation over several years, most market participants have lost money due to poor altcoin performance, leverage, and failed attempts to “outsmart” Bitcoin.
• “Very few people have made money in 2025 if they've done anything but hold bitcoin.” (25:45, Scott Melker)

3. Macro Backdrop & The Mechanics of Liquidity (05:12 – 14:47)

• Overnight Repo Markets & Bank Reserves

  • Lavish explains stress signals in banking and liquidity, referencing September 2019’s “repo shock” as a warning sign for today.
  • Bank reserves dipping below $3 trillion makes the Fed uneasy, precursor to renewed liquidity injections.

• QE vs. Not-QE

  • Technical debate aside, any expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet or injection of capital is “QE” by effect.
  • “If they're adding liquidity to the system, it's QE... that's literally the definition.” (13:05, James Lavish)

• Liquidity Timelines

  • In Bitcoin, inflows from new liquidity tend to show up within “weeks, not months.” (15:07, James Lavish)

4. The Role of Politics and the Fed (16:36 – 21:34)

• Upcoming Fed chair transition (Spring 2026) may bring a more “pro-liquidity” regime, especially with US elections looming.
• “The Fed has become more political than we would say would be normal in history.” (19:53, James Lavish)
• The administration is incentivized to prevent a drawn-out market drawdown heading toward elections.

5. First Principles: Debt, Deficits, and Debasement (21:00 – 24:57; 34:21 – 39:05)

• US government refuses real spending cuts; only Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, and defense (untouchable) drive deficits.
• “Deficits are going to continue... and we're going to continue to print money in order to debase the dollar.” (23:56, James Lavish)
• Asset ownership is the only hedge: “You must own assets... not just owning your house, but tangible assets you can move around in times of need—stocks, gold, Bitcoin.” (34:56, James Lavish)

6. The Poverty Line & the K-shaped Economy (30:47 – 34:21)

• US cost-of-living calculations are archaic; true “poverty line” may be $130k–$140k for families in urban centers.
• “The measure doesn't really make any sense anymore... housing, insurance, childcare have all ballooned to levels that put the poverty line closer to $130,000, $140,000.” (33:05, James Lavish, quoting Michael Green)
• Most are forced to “take risk just to keep up,” driving speculation and the rise of leverage.

7. Social and Political Fallout (36:47 – 39:05)

• Younger generations feel locked out of asset ownership, fueling populism and the rise of socialism.
• The result: “If you have a rise of socialism... in the midst of that capitalist so-called system, then that capitalist system has failed.” (37:43, James Lavish)

8. Can Bitcoin Actually "Fix This"? (38:44 – 41:44)

• Bitcoin protects against debasement only for those who can own and hold it long-term.
• Nation-state adoption—“pinning the value of debt to it”—would be game changing, but remains theoretical.
• “This is not a get rich quick scheme. This is a not get poor slowly scheme. And that’s really the hope of bitcoin.” (41:33, James Lavish)

9. The Treasuries & Bitcoin Companies Bubble (41:44 – 57:45)

• Short-lived mania for Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy led to overvalued stocks and a brutal correction.
• Key metrics: Market cap to NAV (“M Nav”). Many buyers misunderstood, buying at a huge premium before companies even owned Bitcoin.
• Winners will be those with strong management, deep ties to capital markets, and a measured, long-term approach.
• “The strongest companies will have the strongest management... It’s managers who understand capital markets, who have a strong line to capital markets. That’s tapping into the capital markets.” (52:06, James Lavish)
• Market consolidation is expected, with another wave likely in the next strong price cycle.

10. Outlook: 2026 and Beyond (59:44 – 62:00)

• Without added liquidity, Bitcoin may meander between $80k–$100k, but likely will see renewed highs as liquidity returns in advance of US midterms and global economic pressures.
• Lavish expects no 3-year bear market: “If we don’t have a splash of liquidity soon, I see Bitcoin drifting a little bit lower... until we do see some clear liquidity added to the system, which I do expect to come next year.” (59:44, James Lavish)
• Anticipates $150k–$180k as realistic price targets in 2026 given these dynamics.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Cycles:
  “We are no longer in a four-year cycle. We are in a liquidity cycle.” (13:20, James Lavish)

• On QE:
  “If they're adding liquidity to the system, it's QE... that's literally the definition.” (13:05, James Lavish)

• On Asset Ownership:
  “You must own assets... not just owning your house, but tangible assets that you can move around in times of need—stocks, gold, Bitcoin.” (34:56, James Lavish)

• On U.S. Deficits:
  “Deficits are going to continue... and we’re going to continue to print money in order to debase the dollar.” (23:56, James Lavish)

• On the Modern Poverty Line:
  “Housing, insurance, childcare have all ballooned to levels that put the poverty line closer to $130,000, $140,000.” (33:05, James Lavish, referencing Michael Green)

• On Bitcoin Companies:
  “The strongest companies will have the strongest management. It’s not the bitcoin influencers that matters, it's managers who understand capital markets… and have a long, long-term view.” (52:06, James Lavish)

• On the Trap of Speculation in the K-shaped Economy:
  “The problem is, is that the Fed and the Treasury and all these central banks have put people in a position where they must take risk with the money they've earned in order to not get ahead, but just keep up.” (29:21, James Lavish)

• On Bitcoin’s Role:
  “This is not a get rich quick scheme. This is a not get poor slowly scheme. And that’s really the hope of Bitcoin.” (41:33, James Lavish)

Key Timestamps

• 03:00 – 08:00: Death of the four-year cycle, rise of liquidity cycle
• 13:00 – 14:47: QE vs. not-QE explained, banking liquidity risks
• 16:36 – 21:34: Fed’s political nature; upcoming chair change
• 24:57 – 30:47: Investor pain in a “bull market”; the risk trap
• 30:47 – 34:21: Poverty line recalculations & K-shaped economy
• 41:44 – 47:07: The rise and crash of Bitcoin treasury companies
• 52:04 – 55:52: What makes a successful Bitcoin treasury company?
• 59:44 – 62:00: 2026 outlook for Bitcoin price

Final Thoughts

This episode is essential listening for anyone navigating today’s Bitcoin markets. With deep macro and micro analysis, James Lavish shifts the prevailing narrative from simple cycles to the nuanced complexity of global liquidity. For advocates, critics, and hopeful investors alike, the message is clear: the rules are changing, but first-principle thinking—and asset ownership—remain paramount.