Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets Episode: The Bitcoin Rush Starts Now | Macro Monday
Release Date: May 26, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Dave, Mike, and James

Introduction

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker delves deep into the current Bitcoin surge, exploring its adoption not just by individuals and governments, but significantly by businesses of all sizes. Joined by Dave, Mike, and James, the discussion navigates through various macroeconomic trends impacting Bitcoin, the stock market, and traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Tariffs and Macroeconomic Impact

Scott opens the discussion by highlighting the surge in Bitcoin purchases by businesses, noting MicroStrategy as a leading example.

[00:00] Scott: "The bitcoin rush starts now, not just from governments or individuals, but very, very heavily from businesses and even very small businesses."

The conversation shifts to recent political maneuvers, particularly former President Trump's tariff announcements. These actions have demonstrated a direct correlation between tariff moves and market reactions, especially noticeable in Bitcoin's performance.

[02:35] Scott: "But largely what's driving the market at the moment in the immediate is the Trump tariff tantrums."

James adds context to Trump's recent tariff discussions and their immediate market impacts, emphasizing Bitcoin's positive reaction.

[02:39] James: "We had a few days ago... and then he said we're going to delay till July. And of course that was on a Sunday. And markets back up. Bitcoin bounce even right when that happened."

Dave provides insight into how Trump's statements influenced the stock market's bottoming phase, explaining the wealth transfer effect among his followers.

[03:12] Dave: "That was right at the Pico Bottom... he created the bottom... it's not the kind of thing we really want the leader of the free world to be doing. But it is funny..."

Global Deflationary Pressures and China’s BYD Discounts

James brings attention to Bloomberg's report about China's BYD offering significant price discounts across multiple car models due to declining demand and market share. This move reflects broader deflationary tendencies in the global market, with implications for U.S. and European markets.

[01:22] James: "China's BYD is offering price discounts of 10 to 34% across 22 car models in response to weakness in both demand and market share."

He further discusses how China's strategic manufacturing plans are counteracting U.S. tariffs, contrasting President Trump's approach.

[01:17] Scott: "...Z Mull's new Made in China plan... this is the exact opposite what Mr. Trump is trying to do."

Evaluating Macroeconomic Indicators: Baltic Dry Index and Travel Index

The group scrutinizes traditional macroeconomic indicators to assess the current economic climate.

Dave questions the relevance of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) in today's economy, noting its stagnation despite potential global trade issues.

[04:00] Dave: "I like being contrarian to the leverage... It's more like, yeah, you know, there's lots of yelling and screaming."

Mike concurs, explaining that due to distortions like higher shipping costs from European conflicts, the BDI has lost its predictive power. Instead, he points to crude oil and gold prices as more telling indicators.

[05:10] Mike: "Crude oil is going down and gold's going up. So to me, it's all about the next shoe to drop."

The Travel Index is also examined, with James indicating that TSA checkpoint numbers are following typical seasonal trends rather than signaling any economic downturn.

[06:14] James: "...this was, you know, not a really big indicator and it's typical."

Stock Market Resilience and Earnings Concerns

Dave and James discuss the seemingly paradoxical resilience of the stock market despite global economic pressures. They suggest that the lack of immediate economic pain among investors is a key reason the market remains stable.

[07:40] Dave: "...if you follow Josh man... he created the bottom... it was poetic in a way."

They debate whether corporate earnings will withstand potential economic shocks, with skepticism about current indicators truly reflecting underlying economic health.

[07:21] James: "From airport to airport... people who have TDS..."

Bitcoin as a Leading Indicator and Current Sentiment

The panel explores Bitcoin's role as a potential leading indicator for broader economic trends.

Dave posits that Bitcoin's behavior could signal upcoming market shifts, especially as institutions like corporations increasingly add Bitcoin to their treasuries.

[13:03] Scott: "Bitcoin's pretty high."

[13:06] Dave: "The most important leading indicator is, you know, for crypto assets is bitcoin because that's where things are going."

Mike shares his concerns about the current bullish sentiment in Bitcoin, warning that widespread corporate adoption might be a top signal.

[44:19] Mike: "...we have to be very careful of rational investors. Is the time that we all knew when time to buy bitcoin... stay away."

Gold vs Bitcoin as Safe Havens

A significant portion of the discussion centers on comparing Bitcoin and gold as stores of value amidst economic uncertainties.

Mike expresses a preference for gold over Bitcoin, citing its historical performance and lower volatility.

[33:53] Mike: "...Bitcoin will be unconstrained in that scenario where financial assets people will view gold as less safe haven."

Dave counters by emphasizing Bitcoin's potential to reach "escape velocity" comparable to gold, especially as fiat currencies face devaluation.

[35:57] Dave: "If you think that you're going to have liquidity, you're going to have liquidity. Now the question is..."

James introduces the Bitcoin Gold Ratio, highlighting Bitcoin's previous surge in 2021 relative to its adoption metrics and arguing for its sustainable growth trajectory.

[36:26] Mike: "...the bitcoin gold ratio... it's been the same since 2021."

Corporate Bitcoin Purchases and Potential Indicators of a Top

The conversation shifts to the trend of businesses adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, analyzing whether this signifies a potential market top.

[43:11] Scott: "Businesses are the largest net buyer of bitcoin so far this year, led by strategy... a small food firm buys 21 bitcoin."

Mike warns that corporate treasuries adding highly volatile assets like Bitcoin could indicate market saturation and potential downturns.

[44:13] Mike: "...systematic risk of a business adding this highly volatile, highly correlated asset to the stock market, to its treasury is unheard of."

Dave discusses the rationality behind corporate Bitcoin purchases, suggesting that it's a strategic move to capitalize on perceived undervaluation rather than a reaction to business needs.

[46:08] Dave: "That's completely rational... it's the one that I would make if I were running a corporate treasury."

Deficits, SLR Changes, and Implications for Bitcoin and Gold

The discussion delves into the implications of the U.S. budget deficits and potential changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) on Bitcoin and gold markets.

James highlights the massive U.S. deficits and the potential for continued liquidity expansion, which could drive asset inflation in gold and Bitcoin.

[28:53] Scott: "At least 5% 30 year... a slight canary in the coal mine."

[34:55] Scott: "...the U.S. continues to run these deficits."

Dave and Mike analyze how modifications to the SLR could enable banks to hold more Treasuries, potentially leading to increased liquidity and further asset inflation.

[35:18] Dave: "But the truth is, is there's not a lot of retail enthusiasm... you've seen the pain in the past from this kind of rationalism."

Conclusion and Upcoming Bitcoin Conference

As the episode wraps up, the panel anticipates the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas as a barometer for market sentiment. They discuss the potential influx of attendees and what it might indicate about Bitcoin's future trajectory.

[55:12] James: "...Josh Mandel thinks his call and Josh... gold is going to absolutely go parabolic."

Scott expresses curiosity about the conference's turnout, suggesting it could provide clearer insights into Bitcoin's momentum.

[56:06] Scott: "We look at this, it's just not there... We're going to see all of the excess this week."

Dave reiterates his cautious optimism, emphasizing the need for incremental changes towards sound money and viewing Bitcoin as a hopeful transition.

[54:05] Dave: "Yes, sir..."

Notable Quotes

• Scott: "The bitcoin rush starts now, not just from governments or individuals, but very, very heavily from businesses and even very small businesses." [00:00]

• Mike: "The systematic risk of a business adding this highly volatile, highly correlated asset to the stock market, to its treasury is unheard of." [44:19]

• Dave: "If you're betting on deleveraging in the system, I like being contrarian to the leverage." [21:12]

• James: "It's like saying, imagine the only way, the only way Doge could actually do any cutting is if they cut a significant portion of the budget." [32:10]

Final Thoughts

This episode of The Wolf Of All Streets offers a comprehensive analysis of the intersection between Bitcoin adoption by businesses and broader macroeconomic trends. The panel presents a balanced view, weighing Bitcoin's potential against traditional assets like gold, while expressing caution about current market exuberance and its sustainability. As the conversation highlights the complexity of global economic indicators and corporate strategies, listeners are encouraged to consider multiple perspectives when evaluating the future trajectory of Bitcoin and related financial markets.