← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
The Real Bitcoin Bear Market Trigger Nobody Wants To Admit | Jordi Visser
00:37:10
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- [00:00]
Narrator
Jordi Visser says AI and crypto are about to disrupt and change everything. Software is breaking growth, investors are panicking. And Bitcoin, he says it's still a growth asset tied directly to that rotation.
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Jordi Visser
For everything with Bitcoin and everything that people want to believe it is a growth asset. It's not in the defensive bucket. It's not in the value bucket.
- [00:21]
Narrator
Stablecoins just processed more volume in a month than Mastercard does in an entire year.
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Jordi Visser
Stablecoin volumes in January were 11 trillion. Mastercard's entire volumes last year were 10 trillion.
- [00:35]
Narrator
Air agents are coming. NFTs are coming back. Commodities are ripping. And according to Jordi, this isn't a normal cycle. It's the beginning of a deflationary shock that could reshape money markets. And who actually benefits from the next decade? He's right. What happens next for Bitcoin won't look anything like the past.
- [01:09]
Jordi Visser
Dope.
- [01:10]
Interviewer
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to a Bitcoin Investor Week. We are unofficially bombing the corner of the program. We're not really supposed to be here, and we're just going to see if we get kicked out. But I'm here with Jordi Visser, obviously, and we'll be recording a number of shows and conversations for my podcast now and then largely tomorrow. But luckily Jordi and I were able to connect today to have this conversation, which strangely is our first, so first time that we've done that. I can't say that about many people in the industry at this point. So, Jordi, I guess to start with the broad strokes, we're obviously a very interesting place, to say the least, with the economy and with markets. Gold has been trading how we expected digital gold to trade. Silver has been trading like a illiquid ico. Markets are still at all time highs, but people are fearful. You've been doing this for decades. How do you view, just broad strokes, the markets right now?
- [02:11]
Jordi Visser
So everything you said, you left out one thing, which is AI is driving everything. So the economy is growing much stronger than I think people recognize. We ended up getting 7% nominal GDP over the final two quarters in terms of the. Or at least Q2 and Q3 with no job creation today we got some job creation. But the reality is we're at a point where we're growing without hiring people. And that means profit margins are growing. And if profit margins are growing, the stock market's doing well so far this year. I would say the bigger theme that's playing out is a rotation. And that's where my Focus is there's a movement away from software, from anything that is getting disrupted by AI. And it's a growing fear amongst all investors. But it's something that's been on the radar for probably six months, but only now are people paying attention. So it's a weird market, it's a weird economy. I think people are going to have to get used to it.
- [03:20]
Interviewer
So I've looked at a Bitcoin versus effectively everything chart over the last 10 years. The one that I hadn't seen until the last month that's catching steam is Bitcoin versus software ETFs. And if you look at the two charts, they effectively track perfectly. And like I said, I had never seen this before until probably the last 30 days. Obviously aligns with the thesis that you've been sharing. So first of all, do you buy into that narrative that those two are tracking? Obviously we know that causation, correlation not always the same, but is that how you're following Bitcoin right now?
- [03:54]
Jordi Visser
Yeah. And if you look at any liquidity chart, you'd also be able to overlay the two of them up until about October that they'd all be going the same way. So I understand why Bitcoin is getting hit. I understand why the ecosystem of crypto is getting hit. I didn't expect the software panic to start this soon. Earnings have been great. We're record earnings for software. There's no problem. Microsoft just reported revenues are still growing more than double digits. You're left with a scenario that investors made the decision for multiple compression. So what has happened? I think everyone has recognized two things since Claude Code basically started dominating the media in late November, the pace of AI has picked up. And I talk to a lot of growth investors, I talk to a lot of mutual fund heads and they're concerned because the majority of the money is in growth. For everything with Bitcoin and everything that people want to believe it is a growth asset, end of story. Like it's in the growth bucket, it's not in the defensive bucket, it's not in the value bucket, it has no valuation, it's in the growth bucket. The other connection is the VC world. So I think people forget that in 2021, when we were coming out of COVID it was a SaaS bubble in terms of the amount of dollars we got. Nobody was leaving, only way things were being ordered was sitting at home. So you had a massive boom in all of the SaaS and there was an enormous amount of VC money that flowed into the space well, crypto had the same thing. Then we had the rate hikes in 2022 and everything rolled over in both categories. So they're still correlated. Well, we now have a problem because AI has done two things. Number one, it's taken all of the attention away from SaaS and all those startup companies. So they've been having trouble getting funding and getting more money because AI is the new shiny toy. The other side is crypto has been in the same camp. So I think what people are starting to come to terms with, and I still believe crypto will come out of this differently. But for now, you have no VC money. You have mutual funds and growth investors that are caught very, very long. Globally. The US is 72% of global benchmarks. Most of that is software. So you're left with a scenario, particularly when you add in the hyperscalers, include them as software, and they've been underperforming as well. You have a huge kind of overhang. And I think we've learned one thing about bitcoin. One of the most important engines to get it going is the trading community. The chart's horrible. It needs to kind of pick its head up. I think it will. I think we need SaaS to kind of find a bottom here. Hopefully that's happening now and we're through the worst part of the panic. But I'm not so sure yet.
- [06:44]
Interviewer
Yeah, people always ask me what the next catalyst for bitcoin will be, and I say higher prices. It's one $10,000 candle in one day or 30,000 in a week. And all of the exact same conversations flip bullish from bearish on the exact same narrative. So maybe that is the answer, but it sounds like you're actually making a cautiously bearish case. Because if multiples are compressing and we know that companies aren't going to report the earnings that people are buying those stocks for, software is going to continue down. That ETF will probably continue to underperform unless it is forming a bottom. Does that correlation continue? Or as you said, is there something that can break that?
- [07:21]
Jordi Visser
No, and I'm definitely not bearish. We may have made the lows. I think the more important point, and I was more optimistic on software this weekend than I had been at any point. At some point, having traded markets for a long time, a trade gets obvious. The software trade is now obvious. I had written a paper three weeks ago saying that the AI bubble, you never hear AI bubble anymore. But what I heard was software is a panic. You got to step in and buy Software. Now no one's saying that. Everyone's kind of pulled away and said they don't want to buy software every day, whether it's human resources, it's legal, it's insurance brokers, it's wealth management. There's some new disruption. Yesterday was the one that felt ridiculous to me. And sometimes you look for a scenario. And as someone who uses AI all day long, when you take a company that is 1.5 billion valuation, which is what altruist is, good choice of side, you end up knocking down the private Wealth Management Group and in particular Schwab, Raymond James and lpl. Well, that's a quarter of a trillion dollars of market cap taken down by a $1.5 billion company that all they announced was they were adding an AI tool to it. I think we reached a point where valuations have come off, we've discounted enough. I think at a minimum the space will start to catch a bid. And the reason I said, I've seen this act before, at this point, there's a lot of hedges on too. And at some point those become, let's buy it, let's end this. So there's a chance we made the low last week for both software and for Bitcoin. I'm just not convinced. Until we start to at least break some moving averages and we get some technical signals, we just don't have it yet.
- [09:07]
Interviewer
You mentioned before that people are confused effectively by the rotation. Everybody knows that there is a rotation, but I don't think there's any consensus on where money is rotating to. I've long heard the narrative that I don't buy that all this money from gold and silver is going to somehow rotate into Bitcoin and crypto. What do you think?
- [09:27]
Jordi Visser
No, I don't think the gold and silver money will rotate into Bitcoin and if it does, it'll happen much later on. I, I, I've been very clear that as someone who started buying Bitcoin in 2020 continued, I have a belief that it's going to go up significantly. Like most people that are in it, the only way that can happen is not related to gold or silver. I believe that all fiat assets will be disrupted by AI, all of them. I think the final stage has to be hard assets, because the only thing AI doesn't destroy is, is copper, is oil. It's not going to touch those. What it does destroy is anything built on code, any knowledge work, all of it. It may not happen today, but within five years, yes, it will. And then humanoids will come out. So my thesis for Bitcoin has been it's a growth asset. It needs to be at a time when the largest part of growth is not working. We have finally put a dagger forever in my opinion in this belief that the hyperscalers will just own AI and they'll just continue to grow at 30%. The only way Bitcoin can get the money it needs to get from people is there has to be disruption, where people question the assets that exist in the world. $800 trillion of assets, $120 trillion of GDP globally, $120 trillion money monetary base. This is a levered system. At some point Bitcoin needs to be an end result along with gold and silver that fit in. And I think the only way that that can start is what we're seeing in AI. This is a big year for AI, for crypto, even though it doesn't feel that way. Disruption is 0.1, but the utility is 0.2. Tokenization, stablecoins, even NFTs, all of this part is going to be a big story as the year goes on.
- [11:15]
Interviewer
I want to get into that in a second, but what you just presented seems like it could also go both ways because either Bitcoin has to be accepted as a hard asset or, or it's just viewed as code. And code doesn't seem like you're very bullish on the disruption there.
- [11:29]
Jordi Visser
No. So by wealthy people at this event, it's very different than the people that buy it in Brazil, that buy it in Vietnam. I believe that this was the end result of democratization. So I lived in Brazil, I saw poverty, I saw smart people not have a chance to get out of their, the place they lived. AI gives them education, AI gives them an ability to build businesses. And they still have to hide their money from the government. They don't trust their government. So the Michael Saylor story has always resonated with me. It's not a story of wealthy people having money. It is about poorer people getting a chance to get money. And I just don't think that people realize that AI allows any everyone to be an entrepreneur around the globe. And if they make a little bit of money, what are they going to buy with it? Yes, they'll have some money in stable coins to avoid their local currency. But the reality is at some point a store of value. And the one thing I've learned with all human beings that they all have, every single person has it, greed. There is no way that if something is going higher, while all other Assets are not that you won't go buy that asset and that'll be a global phenomenon. So if you take the users and you said, okay, how's, how are people viewing bitcoin and you took a poll and everyone got a vote, it would be very positive on Bitcoin right now. The only people that would be negative are the people that have most of the money in bitcoin, which is heavily weighted towards the wealthy.
- [12:59]
Interviewer
Stablecoins and bitcoin are interesting as well because obviously bitcoin was originally created as peer to peer cash. And I think there's some irony that the two killer use cases for blockchain technology you could argue are bitcoin itself and digital fiat, which is the one thing that bitcoin was arguably created as a hedge against. And I would argue that in many of those countries that you mentioned, bitcoin likely will become the savings account and stablecoins will become for spending. But right now, most of those people are fleeing to the dollar and not making it to bitcoin because they now have access to stablecoins. So a lot of the narratives I've heard over the years, which I still believe in moving forward as you do, was that people in Venezuela and people in Argentina would be buying bitcoin, but they've been buying stable coins. So why doesn't that outgrow bitcoin from here?
- [13:49]
Jordi Visser
Well, when you say it's not happening, I don't agree. And here, here's what I mean. So, yes, stablecoins have taken over the transaction side, the remittance side, but there's still more wallet stuff going in emerging markets into this. I mean, I think a 16Z does a great job of highlighting this at the end of every year. And going through their crypto report, emerging market, they, they have two things, like you said, and I think it's a great way to put it, Bitcoin is a savings account. The checking account or the cash account is stablecoins. I'm sure they're trading it, they're moving money into both. They're going through this. I think stablecoins have been something that has now solved what Marc Andreessen wrote about when he wrote about Bitcoin and the importance of it. This is a really important year. Stablecoin volumes in January were 11 trillion. They were 33 trillion last year. And if people don't know this, I guess it was 10 trillion in January, but Mastercard's entire volumes last year were 10 trillion. This is a massive moment for the utility function. Even without the clarity act, the genius act went through and we ended up with a scenario that there is more volumes going on. So the acceptance around the globe is happening and that is without Shopify and Amazon and Walmart and Uber and all the places that are going to have stablecoins that are going to allow for more consumer transactions which will disrupt MasterCard. I can't think of a scenario more important to Bitcoin than when MasterCard the stock is getting hit and stablecoin volumes are growing. And I think we're going to see that this year. So I'll take the other side. I think emerging markets are still doing it. I just don't think bitcoin can go higher when the whales are selling and when wealthy people are bailing out of SaaS stocks.
- [15:31]
Interviewer
So let's talk about stablecoins further. What happens to MasterCard in this world if they're doing the same volume in a year that stablecoins are doing in a month? Stablecoins are taking a hockey stick on adoption right now and I don't think MasterCard is growing at nearly that rate. What does the future look like for the incumbent payment companies like the Visa and mastercards moving forward? And I have a feeling I know what you'll say. So how fast does it happen?
- [15:57]
Jordi Visser
We have a K shaped economy. The majority of people in the country live paycheck to paycheck. Every penny matters. Every penny. MasterCard is a vig. That's all it is. It's an intermediary that they take money on transactions. So one of the things that AI does, one of the things stablecoin both do, is there's an ability to take out the middlemen, to reduce. They're both deflationary. And so MasterCard does not do well in a deflationary environment where the K shaped economy starts moving more towards stablecoins. That's going to happen this year and once it happens slightly. So think of it as a luxury item now to use a MasterCard. Do I think everyone's going to transition?
- [16:40]
Interviewer
No.
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Jordi Visser
But do I think the K shaped economy means a good portion of the transactions are going to happen with people that are going to move there? If they can save 500 bucks a year? Yeah, I think they're going to move to it because I think that's the kind of economy we're in. And that means that MasterCard is going to see a little bit of growth check. Once you have a growth check in this market and people start realizing this is about technology and deflation, they bail out of Growth stocks. That's what's happening to the legal side. So that's why I talk about this intersection. AI agents and stablecoins are a very powerful force for Bitcoin at the end. We just need to get in the point where they both start to accelerate. And right now we have the stablecoin side. The AI agent side for consumption has not happened yet.
- [17:26]
Interviewer
It's starting to happen. Obviously claudebot or I don't remember what it was rebranded to, but has been all the narrative over the past few weeks which has pushed more to the mainstream the idea that these AI agents will have to transact with one another without your permission and that blockchain and crypto are naturally natural fit for that. You obviously believe that and that stable coins will be what they use.
- [17:48]
Jordi Visser
I completely agree with that. And, and you're right, the importance of claudebot or Open Claw is not that it's happening at the consumer level, but what it is indicative of is AI agents are ready. And that's the important part about this story, is that the agentic world is rising now. And I think people are seeing it. And that's what's freaking out Wall street investors and SaaS is now they can actually say, oh my gosh, so wait, we're, we're not worried because human adoption is real slow, but AI agents are real fast and they're working 24 hours a day, seven days a week, they never stop. So I think the point that you're bringing up, and one that I agree with, is that once the agents start happening and we see the simplest thing get announced when Amazon announced it, when Walmart announced it, once those stablecoins are out and people realize that, wait, how do I buy my airline tickets? If I buy them now from United, it's a stable coin, it's no longer. And the points go to me and I don't have to use their credit card because I'm using their stablecoin. Like as this thing happens, I think people are going to realize that the entire world of consumption is going to change.
- [18:55]
Interviewer
So we know the Amazons and the Walmarts and everybody is coming, but there are different paths that that could take. Obviously they could adopt an existing stablecoin, they could, they could all use USDC and make it the standard, for example, or they can all decide to partner to build their own or build their own entirely, right? So either there'll be a crossover between the crypto and them to build one, they'll have their own, or they'll just use another one. Which path do you think that that likely takes?
- [19:24]
Jordi Visser
I learned a long time ago with the innovation questions to not even bother guessing because it could end up being some form of an NFT. With stablecoins, I think people leave NFTs out of the equation. I just wrote a paper on this. NFTs are an important part of the next five years. They don't get a lot of attention. And this is not an art thing, this is a experience thing. This is a community thing. I'm part of this group. What's attached to it kind of like a subways card and you get your 9th and you get your 10th for free. NFTs are going to be a part of it too. So I don't know which one is going to end up winning, but I'm going to guess the stablecoin is going to be the part that grows and then NFT will be a community based type of approach that they'll have as well.
- [20:06]
Interviewer
I just look at a future of stablecoins being developed by private entities and not being interoperable and having a complete shit show disaster of trying to transact and figure out if you're using Walmart stablecoin on Solana or if you're using Target stablecoin on Ethereum and what that looks like. It seems like we're going to run into a lot of problems finding a standard.
- [20:30]
Jordi Visser
You're basically talking about enterprise software right now at a company. So they're not talking bullish for software. Yeah, I think they'll figure it out. I really do. I'm. I'm not as. I'm not as worried about them not being able to go in one wallet and get exchanged. The one thing about artificial intelligence that people have to realize is ideas happen like this now. So if human beings haven't figured it out, AI will. And it's just a reality of everything that is. The main point is that by the end of this year we'll have 200 IQ infinity running around. And I don't think people fully grasp that that's where we're going to be at the end of this year is close to 200 IQ. So above Einstein infinity amount of people running around creating ideas and coming up with novel solutions. So whatever you can't imagine right now, by the end of this year there'll be ideas that are popping out for sure.
- [21:25]
Interviewer
The NFT opinion is unpopular, but I share it and I've been sharing it. But it's interesting. We see these trends in crypto often where you see an idea that's brilliant. So when I first heard about NFTs in 2017 or 18, it was exactly the things you're describing. And utility, mortgage on a blockchain, car note, whatever. It obviously turned into bored apes and lazy lions, right? And we saw the same with Defi and with Metaverse and every single trend, you have an idea, people run with it, it's a disaster, it gets forgotten, but then seemingly rises from the ashes with the real use case. Do you. Is that how you're viewing NFTs? Do you think that will happen for some of the other hype items that we've seen in crypto in the past few cycles? Yeah.
- [22:10]
Jordi Visser
And I mean, there's two parts to this. I never paid attention to NFTs until the same time everyone did, which was back in 2021, 22. And it was more. If I believe something is going to work long term, I start paying attention to it. I started focusing on crypto when the blockchain made sense to me. Once the blockchain made sense, I saw a use case that it would eventually be there with NFTs. Everyone here uses NFTs every year. If you go to a concert, you now have a ticket that is an nft. If you go to a basketball game or a football game, it's on your phone. That is one step away from it being an nft. It technically is one. So when people hear this, I don't think they realize that it's coming. Worldcoin to me is an nft. So I've written a paper about the proof of identity will be critical in a world of fakes. NFTs, real world assets being tokenized, art being tokenized. All of this stuff is going to have to happen. There's no choice of it because with AI, anything can be replicated and you have fakes immediately. So I joke with everyone who I know that owns Picassos and I'm like, how do you know it's real? Someone gave me a piece of paper. What if I showed you 10 of the exact same pieces of paper and 10 of the exact same paintings and you couldn't have anyone tell the difference? How do we know yours is real and the other people aren't real? Well, I got it from so and so. Well, they say they got it from so and so. There's just no way that this isn't going to be an issue. So everything is going to have to be documented as proof. And that's where NFTs become very important to me.
- [23:44]
Interviewer
It's just so interesting because it was the same conversation seven or eight years ago, the same provenance of artwork and wine and all these things. But that was even before the proliferation of AI. So it accelerates everything by many, many multiples. Basically, all the use cases that we've loved, there's a crypto solution to them that basically solve some problem that AI is creating.
- [24:12]
Jordi Visser
I think that's the part people maybe have not spent the time going through. And I don't know if you've read this, but Marc Andreessen's piece in 2000, I think it was 13, about Bitcoin was one of the most important pieces that I read. And if people haven't read it, it's a seminal piece about what had to happen as the final stage of what he was born in. I mean, he was at Netscape. He watched this whole thing play out. You had to have the Internet, and then you had to get to digital money, and someone had to solve for that. And the Bitcoin white paper solved for it. So now we have digital money. We have stablecoins. We have a digital asset which is accepted around the globe as an asset. Assets don't usually go to zero. Stocks go to zero, Innovations go to zero. Lots of stuff go to zero. But to make an asset go to zero, it isn't about the people here. It's about the 8 billion people on the planet. And if 7 billion people believe it's an asset, it's an asset. It doesn't matter what the wealthiest people believe. That's why I don't care. When people make an argument because they went to a really good school and tell me that bitcoin is worthless, I'm like, I don't care. Your vote is equal to the person in Brazil. It's not right now because you have more money. You can drive the price. But eventually, in my world, where the disruption comes, if I believe in democratization of money, if I believe in democratization of ownership of assets, the kid in Brazil and Vietnam, in the Philippines and Congo and Nigeria, they will have the same vote as a wealthy person was right now. They don't. But in the world that I live in, it will happen.
- [25:48]
Interviewer
So. So there's obviously two camps about the future of AI. One being that everybody loses their job and it's a disaster for humanity. The other being that there's a Cambrian Explosion or Renaissance because of the ways that people can use these tools, all the free time that people will have to innovate and use AI to create new things. Where do you stand generally on that
- [26:08]
Jordi Visser
debate, I stand exactly where Elon Musk says, you won't have to work if you don't want to, which is really the middle of what you're saying. So I don't buy into the. Every job will be replaced. And the reason is very simple. Human beings want to deal with human beings. When we all watched Gladiator, we didn't watch a lion fighting a tiger, we watched a man fighting. I mean, this is what humans want to see. They want to see humans. They don't want to see robots. They don't want to see humanoids. They want a nurse, a doctor, to be a person. Maybe that'll change at some point. But I just, you know, the Olympics are going on right now, and they had the humanoid Olympics and that was a whole big thing. The Olympics is not about sports anymore. It's only about the stories of the people getting to the Olympics. That's what the whole thing is. They ski for a minute and you want to see them win. But the whole buildup is the stories. Most of it is the stories, the stories of human beings, the stories that make people emotional, that make them have memories. That is always going to be a job for someone. And I don't see that changing. But. But it may not be about money. If things are free, you're still doing it because you personally enjoy it. And everyone who's ever read a book on what job you should take, it's always the same thing, which is choose something you're passionate about. It's never about a night. Go choose the best paying job. If things are free and we are in a world of abundance, people are still going to work. They're just not going to work for money.
- [27:40]
Interviewer
But that's a world of beautiful abundance through deflation. When we live in a monetary system that is dependent on systemic inflation. So what happens when those two systems cross paths?
- [27:55]
Jordi Visser
We're going through it right now. I mean, I think that's one of the reasons gold is going up as much as it is. I think people, I think people are scared. I think they're. The polarization of the world, which is clearer in the US is really a global thing at this point. The distribution of wealth problem has gotten too big. There's no way to keep printing money to work the way out. So the end result is if printing's not going to work the way that this thing. And like I said, I believe in democratization. Eventually AI gets to the point that I only want to make $12,000 living in the Philippines, I'm willing to do that job for 12,000. You're doing it for 250,000. I'll do it for 12,000. That's what's happening. And I think that's just a realization that people don't see. They hear the Humanoids versus it. But AI is really more of an entrepreneur versus big company thing. So when I gave the story about Altruist, this company that announced that they're going to have an AI tax part soon, it and you have the private wealth management companies drop, they dropped about 10% on a 250 billion market cap. So $25 billion was lost there. And not a revenue thing changed for this little company. I believe the world will be flooded with entrepreneurs eating away at enterprise business. They will never go public. And the fiat system will change where it'll be distributed around the globe. That's what AI allows. So I don't believe there's going to be the government can control it. I believe in a world of no borders and that we've been kind of going through that that's what the Internet is. That is what social media is. That is what the platforms are. Remember, Google has a 90 plus percent market share in Germany. You never would have bet 20 years ago that the US could have a 90% market share of anything in Germany. So I think this is going to be the same thing. Borders are coming down.
- [29:52]
Interviewer
Sounds like a very painful process though. I would love to think that's a very smooth transition. And the United States government says we're not going to print any money anymore because of the beautiful abundant world of deflation that's coming. They're going to print to infinity to try to stop that.
- [30:09]
Jordi Visser
I definitely think this is a dystopian five years. How can it not be? We're going to have Humanoids on the street at some point in the next decade. They're going to be in factories. Cars are already going around in cities with no people in them. Like we're already in this, this dystopian place. So I just think it's going to happen. And sometimes dystopian is easy to deal with. When it happens slowly or at a pace that allows people to kind of adjust, this one's going to go too fast for the time being. So I do think that they're going to have to print. I do think they're going to focus on that. But what people don't realize is they are printing right now. We had announcements from companies last week, four that they're going to spend $650 billion this year. GDP in the US is 30 trillion. That's 2% of GDP for those four companies. That doesn't include what Taiwan Semi is building, what Micron's building, what OpenAI is doing, what Oracle's doing, what Anthropic is doing, what XAI is doing doesn't include what SpaceX is spending. The military has to build up dramatically with new drones and everything. We are printing tons of money, which is why nominal GDP is growing so fast. So people have work and I think manufacturing jobs are going to be in. We have a labor shortage. Wealthy people or probably knowledge workers are going to have trouble. But I think if you think about the dystopian way, nurses are going to have jobs, doctors are going to have jobs. That's why every month there's jobs there. It's already kind of happening. Uh, it's just maybe going at a pace that people don't want to hear. But I think it's more the wealthy people are going to suffer in terms of their job and it's more the poor people are going to be stable. But the printing is happening from a top down basis.
- [31:59]
Interviewer
That's an interesting take that I hadn't really thought about that. It's not necessarily the government printing, but you're effectively getting the stimulus either way. I want to circle back to something we were talking about earlier. When we Talked About Software ETFs and Bitcoin chart aligning, you kind of passively mentioned that if you also overlay a liquidity chart that you'll effectively see the same thing. One of the pervasive narratives for why bitcoin would potentially go up is also that it follows ISM or the business cycle, which has been flat for quite a few years. There are hints that that might be ramping up again. Does that funk, does that factor into your analysis at all?
- [32:36]
Jordi Visser
I've talked about it. I've said based on history, every time this happens, it goes. I do think it's going to happen. But here's the part I don't believe bitcoin is a software asset. I believe it's more like a commodity. And the reason is it's scarce. So this year has been to be my theme, which I wrote about the first of the year, but I talked about for the second half of last year, is to invest in scarcity and be short. Abundance. Abundance is anything that AI can disrupt and destroy. AI cannot destroy bitcoin. It helps bitcoin in my opinion. All the things we talked about, NFTs needing to know Something is real stablecoins transacting around the globe. Those are the utility function, taking real world assets where there's no liquidity. The dormant assets, which is a huge number. Commercial real estate, real estate, private credit, private equity, vc, that's all dormant stuff. People are trapped in that stuff. Public equities have outperformed all of them over the last decade. All of them, vc, everything. Nobody really talks about it, but that's been dead money. When you take the liquidity premium and be like, how do we underperform over 10 years and we're giving you guys money and you haven't returned it, now you're not even giving us our money back. I think what is happening in the utility function of crypto is what brings everything back. But I do think that bitcoin is more of a scarce asset. And this is the year where copper is a major deal, where silver is a major deal. The 650 billion which was last year at this time, expected to be 400 this year is. I mean that's not a small increase. I don't think people realize how much silver is needed for every single technology to fund AI. So I think commodities are going to continue to go higher. That's been my theme. Eventually the key thing will be when bitcoin can break off from SaaS. I do think that's in the process of starting. Maybe there's another month, maybe there's another leg lower. But you and I are both going to watch to see when simple things like we pass some moving averages. Just get above the 10 day moving average first. Let's just go with baby steps here.
- [34:46]
Interviewer
Well, I want to let you go back to happy hour in a minute. So I have one more question which is one that I contemplate myself and like to ask people because I find it very hard to convincingly buy most assets in this market. So if someone hands the average person a million bucks, it's like Brewster's Millions. You got to spend it all down immediately. So a million bucks, but you can't save it in cash. You got to go buy something. What do you invest in?
- [35:15]
Jordi Visser
Anything that's dirty. So oil, copper, and again, they can be the companies. Any of that. Brazil. I just wrote a big paper on Brazil. I love Brazil. I'm a little biased because I live there, but I wrote a paper that just said they are the one that benefits the most from AI and I believe they do. They own a good majority of the world's critical minerals. They're all set up nicely for people that are looking to invest money and go through it. It's stocks. I mean, I've highlighted Corning. I'm going to be doing a piece this weekend on chemical stocks. I've never written about polymers, ever. In fact, I made a joke to someone. I'm like, you remember Vandelay Industries in Seinfeld? Latex? Yeah, we're, we're doing polymers this weekend so no one knows about. So you're going to see some names this weekend that like you've never seen. But you look at what dupont do it, what Dow's doing Selenise, there's a whole bunch of these companies. So I hate to say it, but everything outside the US is heavily weighted towards manufacturing commodities and dirty stuff. The US has been on the software side. The dollar is going to weaken in my opinion, as capital flows go out. Not because people are avoiding the us it's not an anti politics thing. It's really more the fact that if those names are working, then the waiting around the globe is manufacturing and it's not here. Brazil's not a software hyperscaler country. It's still a commodity country.
- [36:44]
Interviewer
So that's a much more well considered answer than mine because I just buy bitcoin, literally nothing else. Everybody's panic selling and in a freak out right now. I'm literally panic buying bitcoin. I don't even like being on stage for an hour. But Jordy, thank you very much. It's really a pleasure.
- [37:02]
Jordi Visser
Pleasure.
- [37:02]
Interviewer
Scott, let's finally do it.