The Wolf Of All Streets

Episode: "The REAL Bitcoin Bull Run ACTUALLY Starts When This Happens" | Ran Neuner

Date: November 8, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Ran Neuner

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the current tumultuous state of the crypto market following the October 10th liquidation event and explores whether the 2025 Bitcoin bull run ever truly began. Ran Neuner shares his analysis on cycle timing, market psychology, altcoin devastation, institutional versus retail flows, the fate of the four-year cycle, and the nascent privacy coin narrative, particularly focusing on Zcash.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Market: Chaos or Cycle?

• Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: The market recently experienced a $19 billion liquidation event which some believe marks the top, but Ran argues otherwise.
• Cycle Indicators: Traditional top indicators — YouTube views, MVRV score, “blow off top” euphoria — are missing, suggesting the cycle might not be over.
  • “None of the bull market top indicators hit the cycle. Not the YouTube views, not the MVRV score, none of the traditional bitcoin metrics ... There was no blow off top.” — Ran (00:19)
• Ran’s Bull/Bear Probabilities:
  • 30% chance the bull market is over, relying on the halving cycle timing.
  • 70% chance we’re setting up for the next leg up once fear maxes out.
    • “The correction will end when everyone's convinced that that was the end of the bull market...” — Ran (02:45)

2. October 10th Collapse: Exposing Fragility

• Binance & Systemic Risk:
  • A centralized failure (Binance) triggered widespread liquidations, wiping out 1.1 million traders, most of whom likely won't return.
    • “Binance failed dismally on 10 October, and as a result, everybody else bore the brunt of it... 1.1 million people got liquidated. Just think about what that means.” — Ran (00:36), echoed at (09:04)
• Portfolio Destruction:
  • Many traders lost entire portfolios due to cross-margin setups, not just isolated positions.
  • Secondary fallout is reminiscent of the post-Luna, post-FTX waves.
    • “Don't discount the amount of damage that was done. By October 10, the bodies are going to rise to the surface as they did in the 2021, 2022 Luna collapse.” – Ran (12:09)

3. Institutional Dominance

• Who’s Left Standing?:
  • “The majority of the flows in the cycle are driven by institutions... If you're playing outside of the top 10 top 20 coins, then I mean, I think you got bigger balls than anyone that I know because there's just no liquidity there.” — Ran (12:09)
• Retail vs. Institutional Impact:
  • Many retail participants were obliterated, while institutions were largely unaffected by the October events.

4. Bull Market or Not? Four-Year Cycle in Question

• Market Chop and Timing:
  • Corrections of 20–30% are normal in bull markets, but this one aligned with the halving narrative, causing extra anxiety.
    • “The only difference between every other correction and this correction is that this correction lines up with the end of the four year cycle...” — Ran (09:04)
• Sideways Action Exposed:
  • Despite pockets of hype (BNB, Solana meme coins), most assets are flat or down year-to-date.
  • “This is the beginning of January... we’re 1% higher than beginning of January. Which means that treasury bills outperformed Bitcoin... US government T bills this year outperformed Bitcoin 4x.” — Ran (21:56)

5. End of the Four-Year Cycle? Institutional Era

• Halving Cycle “Invalidated”:
  • Institutional inflows and ETF dynamics are overpowering the old halving cycle effect.
    • “The four year cycle in my mind is invalidated for two reasons. The first reason is the traditional economy... the second... is the effect of the bitcoin halving is much, much, much smaller.” — Ran (26:07)
• Macro Risks:
  • S&P 500 at the top of an 8-year channel signals risk for a pullback, which could further depress Bitcoin.
    • “We've got to be cognizant of a little bit of a stock market correction. ... If that happens, it'll take bitcoin down to 95 level at least.” — Ran (28:56, 36:00)

6. The False Bull Run & Altcoin Devastation

• Widespread Drawdown:
  • “All coins are abysmal.” — Scott (50:00)
  • Ran illustrates altcoins like Radium, Sui, Phantom are all down 60–85% from highs.
  • Public sentiment and actual price change show a disconnect; even those who tried to build or launch in this cycle have mostly failed.
  • “Who has participated in this market and done particularly well, I guess is the question, like who is this a bull market for if we've had one?” — Scott (45:59)
• Retrospective:
  • “I think in hindsight probably 2025 wasn't a bull market. We had some, some flames, some good performances, but it wasn't a bull market.” — Ran (46:15)

7. Macro: The Fed, Elections & Stagflation

• Fed’s Dilemma:
  • Economy in stagflation, with little room to maneuver ahead of election year. Expect choppy months until May and a likely policy pivot.
    • “The Fed's caught between a rock and a hard place... we could have three turbulent months now... until the market sees May.” — Ran (32:30)
• Liquidity Backstop & Stealth QE:
  • US Treasury account overfilled; once spent, could buoy markets again.
    • “This extra liquidity won't get released until the government reopens. Also on the 1st of December... quantitative tightening ends.” — Ran (37:00)

8. Market Bottom Indicators

• Checklist For Bottom (40:29–43:47):
  • Chart Action: Took out prior lows, matching typical bottom behavior.
  • Drawdown: ~23% correction, historically in line with bull market retraces.
  • Sentiment: Multiple days of extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index).
  • Liquidity: Starting to return per Willy Woo’s indicator.
  • Open Interest: Altcoin leverage being flushed.
  • Supply in Loss: 30%+ of coins in loss.
  • RSI: Weekly RSI at 45 (bull market support zone).
  • Bollinger Bands: Just tagged the lower band—another bottom signal.
  • “I made a list of bottom indicators... charts, sentiment and on chain... if this is a correction, it's a normal correction. If it's the end of the bull market. Didn't feel like the end of the bull market to me.” — Ran (41:14–43:47)

9. The Privacy Coin Narrative: Zcash and Beyond

• Zcash as “Compliant Privacy”:
  • “Zcash is what you call compliant privacy. You can shield your transaction or unshield your transaction. In other words, you can either hide it or not hide it. And the transaction is always auditable and traceable if you need it.” — Ran (01:12, expanded at 50:03 & 53:01)
• Why Now?
  • Political/regulatory winds have shifted, making “compliant privacy” coins like Zcash uniquely positioned for institutional acceptance.
  • Massive price appreciation recently, but Ran suggests it’s only the beginning of a larger privacy narrative.
  • “If we want this industry to succeed, you need compliant private money...there is no other contender that I know of...that is compliant.” — Ran (53:01)
  • ZK Sync also cited as a privacy-oriented Ethereum layer 2 with strong growth potential.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Psychology:
  • “The correction will end when everyone's convinced that that was the end of the bull market...” – Ran (02:45)
  • “When people have made money they very, very, very scared to lose the money. And so what happens is they get very nervous...” – Ran (30:46)
• On Altcoin Carnage:
  • “I want to just bring up one or two reasonable altcoins... Radium is the biggest decks on Solana... $9. It's down 85%. Like, that's quite a serious correction.” – Ran (48:50)
• On the Four-Year Cycle:
  • “I don't believe in the four year cycle anymore... Institutions power in the cycle, their power is much, much stronger than these tiny, tiny effect that the halving is having.” – Ran (26:07)
• On Retrospective Bull Market:
  • “I think in hindsight probably 2025 wasn't a bull market. We had some... good performances, but it wasn't a bull market.” – Ran (46:15)

Timeline of Important Segments

• 00:00–02:45: Opening, cycle indicators, October 10th recap
• 02:45–06:41: Why 70% chance of another leg up, psychological levels, chart patterns
• 09:04–12:09: Fallout from October 10, comparison to Luna, retail devastation, institutional dominance
• 14:32–16:47: Portfolio management post-crash, strategy for handling “dust” tokens
• 18:01–21:17: Systemic risks, speculation about large players, contrast with good news outside the echo chamber
• 21:56–24:19: Whether this was a bull market at all, Treasury bills outperformed BTC
• 25:05–29:32: Four-year cycle vs. new reality, chart risk, S&P channel
• 32:30–36:00: Stagflation, Fed’s limited options, election-year policy thesis
• 40:29–43:47: “Checklist” of bottom indicators
• 45:59–50:00: Altcoin devastation, dry year for tokens
• 53:01–54:44: Zcash and privacy narrative

Conclusion & Tone

The hosts take a sober look at what — in hindsight — might not have been a true bull market, marking this period as an institutional pivot point and a time of opportunity for privacy coins like Zcash. Emphasis is placed on practical strategies (consolidating portfolios, sticking with strong conviction bets), skepticism toward legacy cycles, and deep uncertainty driven both by macro forces and crypto’s own unique challenges.

Final Thoughts:

• There's wide agreement that we’re near a local bottom, with conditions ripe for a substantial ensuing move, but disagreement on the structure of future cycles.
• The rally for privacy coins in a regulatory-compliant wrapper (e.g., Zcash) could define the next big crypto wave.
• Both hosts agree: more conversation and open-mindedness is key as crypto moves further into uncharted territory.

Contact:

• Scott Melker: @scottmelker
• Ran Neuner: @cryptomanran