← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
We just saw one of the biggest deals, at least regarding institutions in bitcoin that we've seen announced, period. It is actually shocking when you dig into it. Hard to imagine that it won't help push the price of bitcoin up. Of course, I'm talking about Cantor Fitzgerald alongside Tether, Bitfinex and SoftBank, with Jack Mallers as the CEO to basically replicate on a larger scale what MicroStrategy Strategy and Michael Sailor are doing. Absolutely huge news. We're going to break it down today, of course, with Yago and special and very frequent guest David Young from Coinbase. Let's go, let's go. That's dope. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Allstreets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that, like, button. Going to bring on David and Iago. Now. This is obviously the story of the day. I don't think there's a question about that. Cantor Starch, crypto firm with backing from Tether and Softbank, as we dig into it, they're going to start with about 42,000 bitcoin, so about $4 billion worth of bitcoin. Already talking about raising convertible debt, going full microstrategy. Jack Mollers is also the CEO of Strike, is going to be the CEO of this company. And I think maybe the most shocking part to me is that SoftBank is contributing $900 million in Bitcoin. And at no point had I seen that SoftBank had $900 million in Bitcoin. So that either means they've been holding it quietly or they're buying it. I mean, that could be a part of this kind of steady bid we've seen. But, David, I mean, this seems like an absolutely huge piece of news to me.
- [01:55]
David Young
Oh, absolutely. I think this definitely legitimizes Bitcoin further as a Treasury asset for a lot of these major public companies. So I think that we've been seeing it move this direction for a while now. And I'll be honest with you, because it was kind of used more speculatively rather than as a cash management tool. I think there was kind of questions around what corporate accumulation would actually look like. But now I think that this is actually something that's going to set a pretty high floor on bitcoin. I mean, we were kind of going that direction anyway over the course of the week, but now I think this locks it in and a much higher entry point for a lot of new players.
- [02:31]
Scott Melker
It's interesting here. Iago he said, we're very inspired, encouraged by what microstrategy this is, Jack Mallers and other publics have been doing in the public market. He says we're not a pivoting business. We're not a business that sells video games to buy Bitcoin, obviously shots fired at GameStop. We're not, you know, and to buy Bitcoin or sells hotel reservations to buy Bitcoin. I mean, he's not even criticizing MicroStrategy directly. He's friends with Saylor, but he's saying, I mean, Saylor has an underlying software business, right, that still exists at MicroStrategy that made him a billionaire in the first place. And then he says, our treasury is not trading at any premium to net asset value. So we believe it's a very attractive vehicle for those that are looking for Bitcoin exposure. And we think it could be one of, if not the winner of this trend. So he's basically also saying this isn't going to be like MicroStrategy where it's trading at many multiple multiples to our Treasury. Kind of interesting because this is sailors.
- [03:25]
Iago
I don't know how the strategy works. If you're not trading at a premium, right? If you're not trading at a premium, then there's nowhere for you to generate yield from and you're basically just a closed fund etf, basically your dcg. I think there's a couple of interesting things here. First of all, the players that are coming together, they need to be able to send a very, very clear signal to the market of, of credibility. And there's two kinds of credibility here. One is like Michael Saylor, we have a very definitive strategy. We will not move away from that strategy over time. That is extremely important. Yes, A sailor. Sailor's able to sell that story because he's been selling that story for the last five years. To do the same thing, they had to bring on Tether, who have a very, very clear strategy. Cantor Fitzgerald, who have an in with the White House. We don't get much more of in with the White House than that. And Jack Mahlers, who I think is a great figurehead and CEO for this because he's very, very media savvy and also has been very, very clearly tied to Bitcoin and Bitcoin only. And then on the other side of the credibility is, can we bring in substantial amounts of capital or are you, when you are buying into this, do you know that there's going to be continued growth? Because it is basically that growth which is generating the yield and then being able to bring in the deep pockets of SoftBank. Right. The people who are willing to, to set, you know, to send $10 billion or $20 billion at. To WeWork and Uber is very, very strong signal. So I think this is a masterful play. And sort of, obviously they're much smaller than MicroStrategy. They have. Even if they manage to achieve the 42,000 Bitcoin, they'll have less than one tenth the amount. Yeah, yeah, but, but, but this is the most single sort of credible play. And I think what is really interesting is that this might cause premium compression for the entire space.
- [05:29]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [05:29]
Iago
MicroStrategy may see their premium.
- [05:31]
Scott Melker
What happens to strategy? Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. Is that when you have. There's a lot of people who are skeptical of strategy, they don't like how much it trades above nav. There was a time when it was one of the most shorted stocks on Wall Street. Now you have Tantor Fitzgerald, as you said, and Tether and SoftBank all coming together to do this and saying it won't trade at a premium to nav. You have to imagine that when they start raising the convertible debt, most people on Wall street would be much more comfortable buying this debt than MicroStrategy debt. David, I mean, don't you think.
- [06:03]
David Young
I mean, that's kind of tough to say. I mean, certainly, like there are like, I mean, they're, you're, you're kind of having very similar strategies competing against each other. I mean, like, it's hard to kind of gather like whether like investors are going to find this more palatable. But certainly it's, it's cheaper right now than it would than trying to pursue strategy. So I think that's probably going to help initially, but longer term, I think it's kind of tough. I mean, right now I think Even with this 42,000 Bitcoin, they would kind of make them the third largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. So I think people are probably going to need to consider that considering the size of the deal.
- [06:45]
Scott Melker
Yeah, okay, that makes sense. So he also said here, he gave a great interview on Bloomberg, by the way. And Iago, you're right, he's just very media savvy. He's good at this. It's incredible that he can show up in an empty closet and T shirt or a hoodie and go on financial television and seem still totally credible. He's one of the very few people that can pull that off. But he said we do intend to raise as much capital as we possibly can to acquire bitcoin. Again, my one rule to shareholders is, and he repeated this over and over again, our bitcoin per share will grow. That was the only goal. So, yeah, I don't really, to be quite frank, I don't understand the mechanics of this either. If you're not trading at a where is, like, where is the yield per se going to come from and how do they continue to have their bitcoin per share grow? Like, how do you orchestrate or engineer the price of your stock to make sure that happens?
- [07:34]
Iago
My guess is that if that is indeed their strategy, then what they are going to be looking to do is build is create vehicles which allow different types of investors to express different types of risk versus yield appetite. So basically, bitcoin grows on average with a huge amount of volatility somewhere between 30 and 40% annualized in terms of its value, and has been doing so consistently for the last 10 years. Right before that was doing it even more. So if you, if you're seeing 30 to 40% and you, and even if you think that's going to drop a little bit, go down to, you know, 25%, 20% annualized, if you're able to promise to investors, look, we will give you a guaranteed 10% annualized, we will cover the downside for you if there's any downside in the volatility of bitcoin, but we get to take the upside, then you're creating a new kind of bond. And so it might be that it's through this sort of like new bond mechanism backed by bitcoin that they, they intend to raise the capital.
- [08:40]
Scott Melker
What do you think, David?
- [08:42]
David Young
Yeah, I mean, that's frequently been the pushback, I think, for more conservative investors who are interested in bitcoin. But perhaps, you know, like their biggest concern is that they want to maintain some capital preservation. So I think that putting that threshold on the bottom and making sure that they don't go below it, but they can still capture upside. And then if there's any excess, that kind of goes to the company. I think that, you know, like, that's a structure that certainly seems like very, very palatable from for many of your more conservative investors out there.
- [09:16]
Scott Melker
I mean, it is pretty wild. This is less than a tenth of the Bitcoin that MicroStrategy has already acquired through the same process. I mean, it really is, it's a huge deal. But I hadn't really thought about how small it is relative that Iago pointed out, and that may make it a bit more of an uphill climb. It would be very hard for them to get to a half million bitcoin. And by the way, if we did, we're going to have a meaningful percentage of the supply held by institutions utilizing this strategy. We've seen miners doing it. I'm not sure that's great.
- [09:48]
Iago
Well, I actually think there's nothing really wrong with that. What is interesting is how US centric bitcoin is starting to become right. So much of the bitcoin mining is done in the US So much of the institution, like the vast majority of the institutional bitcoin, which is an increasingly growing part of the overall bitcoin pie, is held by US entities and then sort of the pivot of the US Federal government and US State government towards bitcoin. It's very interesting. And this is all happening in the backdrop of the dollar teetering more than it has since the end of World War II in terms of, since the dollar became the reserve currency. I don't think it's been teetering this much with the possible exception of 1971 when they went off the gold standard. So we're. This is a very, very interesting moment. It's, it's glacier like, you know, these are tectonic shifts.
- [10:47]
David Young
Yeah, that's. I think that's the point though. I think the timing here is absolutely not an accident. I mean, it comes behind like both a friendlier US regulatory environment as well as a potential shift in the, the global order. And, you know, you don't usually see these things in real time normally. Like, if I was going to think about the dollar devaluation trend, for example, I'm thinking this is something that happens over the course of decades. And you know, it's not like a single moment in time, but like we're in this weird perverse universe now where it's like, it feels like this one inflection point where we're seeing bitcoin actually change and the capital market assumptions around bitcoin starting to shift in response to that. So I think this is absolutely coming on the heels of that.
- [11:31]
Scott Melker
So there's two things I want to point out and then move on to a bit more macro. And where this does fit in context first is that this company, sole strategies, raises 500 million in convertible notes issuance to buy Solana tokens. So just putting it on your radar. There's another company actually in Canada that's doing this with Ethereum, a friend of mine, David Tal. But it's very very small. But 500 million is not a drop in the bucket that's meaningful for someone to employ the exact same strategy we're talking about. I hate saying strategy and strategy over and over again by the way, but it's the exact same strategy that strategy is using here to buy Solana. So I want to note that. And meta planet hits 5,000. Bitcoin still a drop in the bucket, but it's a good milestone for them as corporate bitcoin accumulation race heats up. I also saw there was another company in Hong Kong that was going to be raising some debt to follow the same strategy. So just want to point those out. Point, point those out. Before we move on to the macro that we are talking about. Trump backs off on Powell China amid dire warnings. It's very clear that a bunch of people from Wall street are very angry at what's happening here and have been warning him over and over again to lay off on China and to lay off on Powell who's been up and down over the past few days. We're gonna reduce tariffs by 50%. We're having great talks with China. China coming back saying everything he's saying is not true. I don't know if you guys saw that quote, but pretty astounding. And even the ECB say here lose, lose game on trade. So putting bitcoin in the context of all of this. But David, you're always kind of have a long view, a sensible roadmap for how you view things for bitcoin. But that's in this context and it's very hard I think to have a consistent view on the future when you don't know what's going to happen tomorrow on tariffs and all of the trade wars.
- [13:19]
David Young
Yeah, I think normally I don't tend to trade the medium long term perspective on bitcoin even though I have a very strong one in terms of what I think it represents as an alternative to the traditional financial industry. But I think here, given the circumstances around tariffs and what effectively does look like a Trump put emerging, I think that we're seeing that bitcoin is really kind of establishing its own trend that's kind of separate, away from US equities as well as even gold to some extent. I think that we've talked so much about this digital gold narrative around bitcoin but you know, like the, the reality is that, you know, it kind of trades better in risk on situations. Sometimes resilient inflation, sometimes it's not. But it's more of a fair weather friend. But now it's starting to really kind of take on its own track. And we saw it this week and it's very much a response to, to a lot of the news that's going on with respect to like, Powell, with respect to like the, the China situation. And I think that China is absolutely, by the way, like the linchpin of trying to figure out the tariff strategy and what's going to happen on the macro side of things. Because it seems like he's trying to align the flows to kind of combat what he sees as the greater concern around this kind of geopolitical risk. So I think that probably like we might be at the beginning of a place where bitcoin really kind of has its own track that's separate from U.S. treasuries that kind of like trades more in line with, with gold. I think that when you start seeing that gold isn't performing like its own, like, you know, what people needed to do, which is of course to actually go against some of the geopolitical pressure, but outside of that, it doesn't offer you much of a return. I think bitcoin actually does, and that's starting to occur to a lot of people.
- [15:09]
Iago
I think also what's happening with gold is really fascinating. The gold is pumping and gold is not a small asset. Gold, you know, started out a few months ago as a 19 trillion dollar asset is now past the 23 trillion dollars.
- [15:25]
Scott Melker
18. When we were having these shows, we were always talking about gold will come down and bitcoin and come up and they'll meet in the middle. Then all of a sudden gold 22 trillion.
- [15:33]
Iago
So just just to give a sense of proportion, gold, over the course of one week, just last week added the entire crypto market cap to its own market cap, right? It, it grew its market cap by the size of all of crypto, bitcoin and everything else. And, and that's really interesting. It's really interesting to see gold which has been such, which is, you know, such a stable asset, generally speaking, supposed to be born from 2, 800 to 3,000, you know, 400 over a relatively short period of time. And the, the market that bitcoin is going after. Right. So sort of like the same, the same way that Solana is going after Ethereum and ethereum is going after bitcoin, bitcoin is going after gold. And as gold grows, the space for bitcoin to grow grows even more. So I, I think what's happening with bitcoin, sorry, with gold, is extremely bullish for bitcoin and More than that underlies the fact that even though we, in these shows and on Twitter and sort of like the newspapers and op eds, everyone's always talking about tectonic shift. But when you start seeing it in gold, you know, it's real. It's like it's happening.
- [16:52]
Scott Melker
I will say we're going to have Dan on later and I see him in the back, but last week, I think it was last week, I think he showed a chart that every time gold consolidated, bitcoin went up and bitcoin consolidated and gold would go up. And so you can expect that we've seen in the past, that bitcoin would likely follow gold on a move like this. That would not be unexpected. And here are those top assets by market cap. It's incredible how much gold has just smashed everything else. Bitcoin, by the way, was five two days ago when it was over 94,000. Now it's back to eight. But it had six. Maybe it was five or six. It surpassed silver and had surpassed Google before falling down. But it's knocking on the door. I mean, bitcoin being bigger than silver is just an astounding thought. It really blows my mind. But, David, in this context of such uncertainty, how do you forecast what you think is likely to happen? I know that bitcoin could follow gold, but if Trump goes with 250% tariffs against China, nothing's going to go pumping into the clouds. It's really hard to imagine that.
- [17:56]
David Young
Yeah, I think it's still tough to play things in the spot market. Although that said, it's, you know, we've seen this over the last few days. It's a really difficult prospect to be short anything at this point because the convexity around headlines is so high that, you know, your risk reward for kind of, kind of positioning that way, I think really doesn't work for you. So I think that, you know, the, for the time being, I think it's probably going to be about being opportunistic, being very, very tactical about things. So, honestly, like, I don't think the, the floor for bitcoin is like, much lower than what we've seen in this cycle already. So I think people who thought that they could get bitcoin at like the 70, 72,000 level, I think now, given everything that's happened, especially like with the news today about corporate treasuries kind of, kind of pursuing the strategy, I, I don't think you're going to be able to, to get there now. So I think, you know, it's really hard to say that if we're going to keep on this trend, you know, if we, if we break 95, then I think we're just going to keep going that direction. But like if, if we kind of like bounce around here and things are choppy and of course we haven't gotten away from the headlines quite yet. I think that we're, we're still very headline driven then, you know, like, I think you can probably go here for a little while longer. But I expect the turn to happen probably or us reaching the lows, us finding the bottom probably sometime in the next couple of weeks. I think that by the time we get to the end of Q2, we're in a much better setup for like Q3 and Q4.
- [19:29]
Scott Melker
Yeah. I just want to quickly show the bitcoin chart to support exactly what you said because it's hilarious how this always happens if you are a chartist or just understanding human psychology. We had that high last March at around 73,835. That was the line everyone talked about. If bitcoin ever gets the dip, it comes back to test the all time high of support. So what happens when everybody's watching literally the same area, you get front run by a few hundred bucks and everybody whiffs. Right. The big money comes in above. Actually I thought it was coming in above here or you nuke all the way down and those bids actually fill. But the safest bet here was just bid like 76 if you want to hit 74. Right. If you were trading it. And of course it doesn't get down to those levels that you were talking about.
- [20:13]
David Young
Yeah, that's absolutely right. And I mean I'm not the, the biggest fan of technical charts, to be honest with you. I think that yes, supply, demand like matters a lot in these markets, probably more so than, than market fundamentals. But I think at this point in time, you know, we're still kind of subject to a lot of like the macroeconomic factors which are going to be, still remain dominant I would say until probably early to mid May.
- [20:39]
Scott Melker
Yeah, the, the reality is we're just subject to whatever Trump says on any given day. Right. So I've never seen anything like it. I mean Yago, what do you make of it?
- [20:48]
Iago
Well, I mean you, you know, three months ago I started saying we were going to see a significant turnaround in May. I still think that we, I think it traditionally seen Bitcoin lag M2 supply. So M2 money supply. By three months, M2 money supply started increasing globally three months ago or just, just under three months ago. So I think probably there, there are people out there who believe what I believe in are, you know, expecting the same thing. I think we're going to see strength in May, and I think that strength in May is probably likely to continue. I think the bigger story, and that's sort of like that, that's a short term story. I think the biggest story right now is that bitcoin was created as an alternative asset, but you don't get a lot more alternatives in bitcoin. It's an alternative to the current monetary system, the current global system, the current everything system. And when the world is in chaos, that's when people start looking for alternatives. So bitcoin is a chaos asset. And the world is becoming increasingly chaotic. And I don't think there's any way to unring that bell. The US Is never going to be able to sort of, you know, it takes a lifetime to build a reputation and a day to ruin it. The US Is never going to have the same global credibility it had unless there's another sort of World War Three and the US steps in to save the world again. That's the only way that you rebuild that level of credibility. And so, and so I think we are moving towards world in which there is less and less globalization in the physical realm, which means that globalization isn't going to disappear. It's going to move into the digital realm. And so people are going to want borderless finance, borderless assets, and that's bitcoin and crypto. So I think we're just getting started.
- [22:50]
Scott Melker
So, speaking of things that obviously added major credibility to United States, we have this chart here of Trump's meme coin. As you might have noticed yesterday, the Trump token that was launched within 48 hours of his presidency went from $9 to $16 in a day, from peak to trough. So a massive move. It almost doubled in price. The reason being that Trump's going to host a dinner with top holders of his meme coin. We've seen this with his NFTs, of course. I think it's 220 top holders, a certain amount who are the topper. Topper holders will get a private audience with him. How is this not a security now? I mean, the whole thing was that's a collectible, I guess if you hold the collectible, but like, obviously saying like, I'm the President and 220 of you who buy enough of my thing are going to get to hang out with me. Seems like that's being promoted.
- [23:48]
Iago
I'm not sure that the constitutional technically. Yeah, I'm not sure the framers ever said anything. There's nothing in the Constitution that says that the president can't auction off meetings with himself. I think it's been frowned upon by most other administrations, but.
- [24:05]
Scott Melker
I know, but once it has utility, it's not a meme coin anymore. Right? So. Yeah, yeah, go ahead. I was just gonna say, I mean, David, like in the midst of all of this, you know, like, don't we have enough nonsense happening?
- [24:20]
David Young
I don't know. I mean, dial's point. I don't know about the commercialization of the office and whether it certainly I.
- [24:29]
Scott Melker
Think I shouldn't have said the security part of the legal issue. I'm just saying, like amongst all the things that are giving us uncertainty in our market, I just don't feel like this helps too much.
- [24:39]
David Young
Yeah, I, I don't completely disagree with that. I, I think it's, you know, for, for an asset class that we've been trying to like legitimize, like, you know, like have become more legitimate in the eyes of your traditional investors, for example. I mean this is kind of could, could be problematic for that. But yeah, same time it's like I don't control this. I don't know.
- [25:04]
Scott Melker
So.
- [25:05]
Iago
Okay, Scott, uncertainty is bad for the economy and it's bad for people.
- [25:11]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [25:11]
Iago
No one wants to live in uncertainty. But it's good for bitcoin. That's why bitcoin's a hedge. Right.
- [25:17]
Scott Melker
It is very important to note I've showed the charts on every show, but like bitcoin just made a new all time high versus the nasdaq. Obviously bitcoin had performed well against gold. Gold has been smashing it. But to say that it's correlated to either of those and is following the market are very, very temporary things. I do think that bitcoin has largely been uncorrelated and has really shown that. David, I'd love your take on this because it did go down in the 70s very briefly, but most of the time since Liberation Day. Bitcoin chopped around in the 80s and then went up even while everything else was going down. And most days don't see that old thing where the market opens, stock market opens and bitcoin does whatever the NASDAQ does. It really does feel like it's separated here at least. I'm wondering if that's an institutional or sovereign bid or something, but does seem that way.
- [26:07]
David Young
Yeah. I think bitcoin, it's so many layers on this, right? Because there's bitcoin, there's the rest of the crypto market. And then how are each of these two things kind of performing? Because I think, you know, I, I wasn't, I know this wasn't your direct point, but like, what are altcoins doing compared to like everything else that's happening in the world? And they've definitely suffered more. And I, I think that their correlation to, to u S equities has been somewhat higher than say, bitcoin. And of course all these things are statistics. Depends on the window you're choosing. I like to look at, you know, something greater than a 30 day window because that's what my stats teacher taught me. Like it had to be like 40 day window or higher. But like generally like the numbers I've been looking at, it's been kind of showing that it's actually been in the order of like 60. Hasn't really breached that. And then it's kind of been bouncing around 40 to 50, which, you know, like, I think that's kind of like around the cusp where that relationship still is significant. And you know, like, so far what this is telling me is that I think bitcoin is starting to decouple more from your traditional assets. I mean, like the world itself isn't necessarily running behind u S equities anymore either. I feel like we should be paying more attention to what's happening in the bond markets more than anything else. And things that people never look at, which is like swap spreads and other things that determine credit risk. But I think for the time being, bitcoin definitely looks like it's operating more on some of these idiosyncratic factors that drive it.
- [27:37]
Scott Melker
Totally agree. I'll go. Final thoughts before I let you guys go.
- [27:41]
Iago
Chaos is a ladder, and in this case the letter looks like the bitcoin chart.
- [27:46]
Scott Melker
It's a blockchain, a ladder. That's all it is, right? It's perfect. Well, thank you David and Iago so much as always for joining. Guys, give them both a follow on x. Check them out, everything they have. You guys are absolutely the best. Thanks again.
- [28:00]
Iago
Thanks guys.
- [28:03]
Scott Melker
All right, guys, before we move on to Dan, I want to give a highlight here, of course, as you're used to, to aptos right here. This is from Avery, who is obviously the CEO of Aptos after Mo left and one of the founders. And just an incredible, incredible thread here that you can read on x highlighting everything that Aptos is doing. So it really is the blockchain that's quietly building the rails for the future of global finance. They're one of the few that has the three largest stablecoins by market cap on there blazing fast speed, incredibly cheap. Transactions are now at 100 sub 150 millisecond block times. There's over 160,000 transactions per second. They just committed 200 million more dollars to build an ecosystem. And they're included in Bitwise's new crypto etp. You know we love bitwise really. Always talk about what's coming for mainstream adoption. How will it happen, where will it happen. It's going to be on layer ones like aptos where we finally see the future of finance being built. You just have to be patient. So check out aptos, of course, everything they've got going on. And now on to Dan. Good morning.
- [29:15]
D
Morning.
- [29:16]
Scott Melker
So that gold, we were talking gold, Bitcoin. Gold, Bitcoin. I had to reference you. I was about to bring you on but I didn't want to make it weird. But listen, we've had this gold move I've been arguing of late. I mean I guess we'll see what happens today. But gold starting to look like a blow off top. And that daily candle two days ago had me feeling like maybe gold's going to chill for a bit. And that could mean it's bitcoin's turn to follow.
- [29:39]
D
Yeah, I mean that like you said that that tells us. Okay, pay attention for a potential shift. The bears have to prove a lot on that daily and weekly chart still. But it's a start in terms of. And again, you know what, the chart I showed last week was a two week time frame.
- [29:54]
Scott Melker
So got to be zoomed in today. Yeah, right.
- [29:57]
D
And yeah, you know, people will be like, oh well gold and bitcoin were trading inverse today. You were right. And I'm like, well I mean I'm talking bigger picture. This has to play out for weeks but something to be keeping an eye on. And you know bitcoin right now is battling this previous support zone that we held forever. And then we. I marked it here just by this top at 95 and then that lower high. And you can see it was a great zone of previous support. Then it was resistance and we're battling it again right now. So again we know bitcoin has had a great move over the past week. Plus there were little clues just in the sense that we're talking again last week where names like the crypto stocks, mstr, even gme, which is now I guess a crypto stock they were showing relative strength to Bitcoin and bitcoin was showing relative strength to Nasdaq and as you mentioned bitcoin on Tuesday this week, all time high relative strength versus the nasdaq. So a couple little signs that just had me. Okay, time to pay attention to, to crypto now. And you know you had MSTR set that monthly higher low officially by breaking the high of last month. So starting to shape up and looking good. But one thing to remind yourself is, you know, okay, bitcoin has had a nice move off the low but we will eventually have to confirm a weekly uptrend. So just keep that in mind. We have the space for a weekly higher low. But if we're going to see follow through and you know, an all time high test and ideally new all time highs, just keep in mind that we will eventually have to confirm that weekly uptrend. So you know, it's the kind of thing where I want some exposure now, but if I'm going to add exposure at this point being a little bit more conservative, I would want to be waiting for a weekly higher low. But that's just because I was grabbing some positions last week and I don't want to get too overly ambitious as we're testing a key resistance zone right now.
- [31:43]
Scott Melker
So yeah, I mean I guess this area right around 94, 95, obviously a very key area I would say to support support at this point is 88ish where we just kind of made that first higher high. But making that high for me at least I, I view 88 as the break to a new higher high. I don't know if you do too. I can kind of show it here. But obviously we had this downtrend of lower highs and lower lows all the way from the all time high. Nice break. Big volume above the 50 and 200 Ma and broke on a major candle spread and volume that level. I mean so to me that screams like retest. So you'd be at 88 800. Right. But in general feels like that's kind of a confirmation that the downtrend here is over.
- [32:24]
D
Yeah, it definitely is a character shift. And, and the most glaring thing for me was I believe it was Monday where the Nasdaq. Yeah, Monday, big red NASDAQ and big green bitcoin. And that is, you know, as you mentioned, if you zoom out you can talk about a lack of correlation. Okay, I can, I can get on board with that. But when you're zoomed in they very often from 9:30am to 4pm will trade very similarly. And this, they were going inverse. And that's very rare recently. So that was another flashing. Something is very different here than what we've been seeing recently. And, you know, my assumption is that GameStop has been buying. We're not going to know for a while until after the fact, but I would assume that's a high probability of what's been contributing to this.
- [33:05]
Scott Melker
But SoftBank maybe. And SoftBank maybe. Yeah, yeah.
- [33:09]
D
And speaking. Speaking of CEP, it felt so orderly.
- [33:14]
Scott Melker
This rise felt so orderly to me.
- [33:16]
D
Yeah, it's looking great. And it's. This is an example of how Twitter helps me make money as a trader, where I didn't know anything about this. I see the clip of Jack Mahlers on Twitter. I was a little late, but then I jumped to the chart and I saw a little. I traded this yesterday because I saw a little base of support at 1475, and that essentially showed me, okay, that's a level I can play off of now. You know, I didn't. I don't know anything about the fundamentals, aside from, okay, Jack Muller's bitcoin. His timing is right. Bitcoin just had a nice bull move. And so that 1475 level was a level to play off of. And then you get this play often where, when it's a recent IPO or something like a spac, you get the, the Blue sky push and the bulls know that they can load up during regular hours, and then it's so illiquid you can run it in extended hours. And, you know, GME was a picture perfect example of that back in the day. But just be really cautious with the liquidity on this one. You know, it's still running, but, you know, a lack of liquidity is a bull's best friend. When you're in Blue sky breakout. Just be aware that when it tops, it's going to drop 30% really quickly. And there's a lot of misinformation out there on Twitter where people are like, look at the market cap. 42,000 Bitcoin. And this market cap is way too small. There's going to be massive dilution when they change to the ticker XXI and it actually goes through. So just be aware that that's misinformation that's going on at Twitter. But it's. It's still running at this point.
- [34:37]
Scott Melker
And I didn't realize it pumped that hard. That's crazy. Nice.
- [34:39]
D
Yeah, I, I made it. I fumbled it. Why? I made a nice trade yesterday, but I, I Knew to hold overnight for the gap up. And it's just so hard when the, the bell rings and it's after hours and there's no bid support and we start dropping back down and it's just like you gotta hold and trust. And I struggled to do that. This is one where I definitely should have made more and kept a position for today. But always another lesson and tricky. You know, it's again, this thing's going to drop 20% real fast once it tops, but it hasn't topped yet. So don't be chasing up here, obviously.
- [35:12]
Scott Melker
What else are you looking at?
- [35:14]
D
Just in terms of the broader market, this is the most important chart for me. This is the S&P 500. Just because it's nice and clear. This is a 12 hour. We've got, you know, multiple tops including yesterday. We've got multiple bottoms. And if this breaks bull, it's a great sign for bitcoin because it will be, you know, the highest level that the broader market has seen in a couple of weeks. And that could help bitcoin get over that 95,000 hurdle. If we see a little bit of weakness, then we can trade sideways within this range for another few days for sure. But this is my broader market guide and it matters a bit to bitcoin and the crypto stocks because if I'm bullish those, I definitely want to see this chart break bull. So definitely one to be keeping an eye on over the next couple of days. And in, in addition to that, you know, still keep an eye on CRV as a lead all coin bull, it keeps standing out and it's been a little bit, you know, it was the only red name out of a huge green list yesterday. It's a few. One of the few green names on a red list today. So doing its own thing to a certain degree. But this is a nice example of a back test. You know, there's your resistance and you're back testing and trying to hold it. So again, I'm not watching many altcoins. That's one of the ones I'm watching. Watching binance is boring, but this beautiful tightening range tells us that in may, binance volatility is going to spike when this tightening range breaks. So just keep it on the back burner in terms of paying attention to the tightening range because it will break. And other than that, you know, eth btc is this the bottom? Well, let's break the weekly lower high every single candle pattern as the first baby step to saying maybe. But, you know, yeah, I'M I'm not putting any eggs in that basket at this point. I'm still constantly keeping an eye on it but again burden of proof is on the bulls.
- [36:59]
Scott Melker
So really quick I do have to go everybody give Dan a follow. Of course check out all of his other content just to show you guys because today I go on right after I'm on with Dan I go on serious business briefing for these quick things but today is gonna be 30 minutes long and apparently you guys can call in so 844-942-7866 and you can just troll me relentlessly call and make fun of my face or something. I don't know. It'd be better than having to answer questions about Trump and tariffs which is never what's going to happen. Dan, thank you so much guys. I gotta run and go do that now. Thank you. We'll see you tomorrow for the Friday five Later Dan. Let's do let's do.