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- [00:01]
A
If history is correct, then you have only 150 days to accumulate Bitcoin at these levels before they are never seen again. We're going to talk about that, everything happening in the markets today with my good friends Andrew and Tillman. Another great show incoming right now. Let's go.
- [00:22]
B
Let's do.
- [00:37]
A
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Space. I'm up here on a spaceship apparently in the clouds, just vibing, drinking some Lacroix. You know, I've been trying to get Lacroix to sponsor the show. I've come up with some really good taglines for them, like Lacroix. What the fuck is Naturally Essence? I've got Lacroix flavor optional. La Croix. Forget it. I don't even know what a black raspberry is. Yesterday I was drinking one called Pumplemoose, which, I don't know, it's like a grapefruit in France. Do you guys know what a pot pump is?
- [01:13]
B
You have a funny way of trying to get sponsorships from companies.
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C
Your product stinks. I don't know what it means, but I'm obsessed.
- [01:25]
A
But like, first of all, like Lacroix. How do you pronounce it?
- [01:30]
C
There's a Seinfeld for this. The Kramer doing Hennigan's. Hennigan's. When you need a little. Yeah, so there's a Seinfeld for everything.
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A
L, A Croix. All right, so anyways.
- [01:43]
B
Lacroix.
- [01:44]
A
Okay, so let's talk about this. Okay, we, everybody wants to know what the hell's going on with bitcoin price. It's, it's a little lame, but we did get a nice bounce the other day. Let's take a look. We got Bitcoin. I hadn't even looked. 68,933. So now the new home, because we're living in a simulation is going to be 69,000, right? 69, dudes. That's where we're going to hang out for a while. But there's some signals I've been talking about for quite a while that I actually find pretty compelling. So Bitcoin's oversold RSI on the weekly chart for only the fifth time ever. You can kind of take a look, but not something that happens very often and has only happened at Bottoms. And as somebody named Matzy, who I don't know, says, start the clock. We've got 150 to 250 days to accumulate as much bitcoin as possible. You can see that every time RSI has gone oversold on the weekly and by the way, you can use this signal across almost every market. RSI is about as old school as it gets. You get these consolidation periods kind of sideways of 150 to 250 days and then the market goes up. We're not going to get into talking about arch public, but I'm really excited if price stays here for 150 to 250 days. And every time there's like a 3% dip in that range, I'm buying it. Right, but let's talk about it generally. I mean do you kind of ascribe to this theory, do you think?
- [03:02]
B
Well, it's about how, how many bitcoin do you want to own? Right. That that's the. Exactly. The goal here is, is really about bitcoin ownership and what allocation percentage do you feel confident and comfortable owning over the long term? Because if you keep powder dry, dips are an advantage. Right. When everyone has to have liquidity and they're forced to sell to get that liquidity, that is the best time to buy any asset. I don't care whether it's bitcoin or purses. Honestly what you're looking for is you're looking for capitulation, you're looking for the mass exodus of retail. And I think what's really interesting about this cycle versus all the cycles that I've been a part of is just how many levers and pulleys they've created, how many products, how many Wall street structured products are now available. And to me the supply always drove the price throughout Bitcoin's history. I watched the first cycle was controlled by miners, second cycle controlled by miners, third cycle was really controlled by ICOs and exchanges. And then this cycle's Wall street like firmly Wall Street. There's no supply miner control anymore because we don't have enough bitcoin left to mine to give them control. And so Wall street has all these synthetics and all the, and the bottom line is just follow how much liquidation dollars happen with these violent moves and you'll get a very clear picture of the incentive. Like follow the money is the age old thing, right? Well when you have billion dollars of leverage that's flushed in a matter of six hours like it was at the beginning of this downward spiral, then you know that's, that's going to continue until it, it stops. It's like the beatings will continue until morale stops. You know, until people stop leveraging on thinking that this is the bottom. That's when we'll find the bottom. That's Just the way the markets work as far as I'm concerned. At least.
- [05:21]
C
We can't hear you. I can't hear you, Tillman, can you?
- [05:24]
A
Nobody can hear me. In exactly one month, Bitcoin circulating supply will hit 20 million. That point there'll only be 1 million Bitcoin left to be mined forever. To your point there, Tillman, Mining, you know, not, not that many bitcoin left. That's like a rounding error at this point. That's a satoshi wallet.
- [05:41]
B
Exactly. And so where is the control? It's in the paper. It's. Andrew talks about this literally every, every session that we have together. It's like ETFs, ETS, ETS, you know, that's one form of what we're talking about. But there's many, many forms of, of the paper, you know, synthetic bitcoin products and there's more money in that than there is in spot right now in terms of activity, trading volume inflows, consistent inflows in particular. But I digress.
- [06:12]
C
There was a bunch of theories that went around last week about you know, what caused the, the huge move lower, you know, a hedge fund in Hong Kong or multiple hedge funds in Hong Kong. Ibid. Options. You know, people need to pay real attention to the fact that BlackRock's ETF, you know, the options associated with that product is a massive, massive market. Huge market. And so you know, whatever the, whatever the theories are and then whatever the actual reality is, you can just take a 50,000 foot look at that entire narrative because the narrative is, is true that, that what this was a paper driven moment and be aware of, of two things. If it can happen once, it can happen again. But if it happens to the downside, it can happen to the upside too. Right? That's the nature of options. Right? In the same way that you get a squeeze to the downside, you can get a squeeze to the upside. It's, it's, you know, it's, it's what you get when the, all these products are created and used the way that they're being used. The other thing you have to realize is, is there, there is, you know, Bitcoin has found its way into the, you know, know the space where it's being used as such a meaningful tool to affect performance. You know, in a, you know, in a way that's a circular way spot, Bitcoin and etf. And then on top of that, options. I mean my goodness, again, even though that, that we, we saw what the downside looked like, we also, in that Moment which, which people don't want to talk about. We also saw the upside pretty quickly too. We went down to 60 and we immediately went up to 71 within, you know, less than 24 hours. So there will be a moment where we go from wherever we are now to significantly higher and the story will be, okay, leverage. Somebody got flushed out or somebody was levered long at the right time and it exploded things to the upside Again. Jeff park does a really good job of pulling this stuff together and making it somewhat, you know, you can figure it out when he explains it. Can you?
- [08:31]
A
Because I don't understand any of the words he uses.
- [08:35]
C
Yeah, so it, it, he does use some really Wall street ish words. You know, squeeze this, squeeze that, Vanna this, gamma this, delta that. But the, but the bottom line, you know, I try and distinguish, distill it.
- [08:48]
B
Down to oh, those are Wall street words. I, I thought he was in a fraternity or something.
- [08:57]
C
But it, all it really means is that, you know, that we're going to see increased volatile. It is a really interesting spot that we're in with bitcoin. In the same way that there was decreased volatility for the better part of, let's call it a six month period period with bitcoin. The minute that, that, that a switch flips, that volatility skyrockets. Like literally skyrockets. You go look at a bunch of charts associated with options and volatile volatility indexes, all that stuff, it, it, it went to the sky high in that moment. Same thing though can happen to the upside, right? You can get moments where there are upsides that, that look and sound and feel the same way in terms of their velocity.
- [09:45]
B
It's an energy shift for most people. On a practical level though, you know, it's like I put myself in my younger shoes and I was the guy that was always rooting for higher prices the older I got. And now I'm in a position where when prices start crashing, I start looking at outsourced revenue opportunities. I start looking at ways I can generate additional capital so that I can buy more of that asset I believe in. And so, you know, there's, I think the people who are disappointed or frustrated. It's just a, you shift your focus, like, focus to the real world on how you can make some more green, worthless dollars that are being printed into infinity and buy cheaper bitcoin and that, that will cure you from a, you know, feeling sorry for yourself perspective. I've been there, I've done that. But I'm in a Different position now where I'm, you know, we've started a fund. Well, that fund is raising money. When, when do I want to place that money? I want to place it when bitcoin's cheapest. I hope bitcoin continues to go down. Why? I know what I own and I know it's not going anywhere. And I know it's being literally underpinned as a base asset in the new future of finance. And you know, Larry Fink and the who's who of finance are not making small moves in the space. They're restructuring their entire organizations to spotlight and highlight and build on this technology. So it's not something that is going away. So if it gets cheap between now and the time that they've accumulated enough to feel like there's now a reason for it to go up, isn't that a good thing? Shouldn't we be accumulating? I looked at a chart the other day that showed how many whale wallets have been accumulating in these dips. It's off the charts. It's all the small wallets that are getting forced to liquidate right now. And that should tell us a lot in terms of what people really think about where the price is going. And you always follow the quote, smart money. Well, smart money's buying when there's blood in the streets, when everybody's crying and saying that the asset's dead. And to your point about volatility, we saw that unprecedented volatility in the gold and silver markets this year. That's, that's about to come like that. There's no way that's the new way of investing. I don't think you can get away from that type of volatility anymore.
- [12:13]
C
Well, the other thing that we forgot in the, in the, the rush of everything that happened last week is the week before BlackRock announced that they're starting their second Bitcoin ETF, which is effectively a covered call strategy. And so, you know, blackrock's not a small organization, guys. Fairly sizable right there to the heather. Yeah, so. So if they think that that option market is of scale, to be able to take in huge institutional dollars into that ETF and affect that strategy on behalf of the folks in that, that ETF fund, that's all you need to know about.
- [12:54]
B
Well, but it's even deeper than that. It's them knowing. It's like me, I played football, as you guys know, and if I go to a high school football game and I see an offensive guard that played left guard and I See that he is just £320. Can is running guys over. I can tell that kid with a high degree of confidence you've got a future in football man like you, you're a football player. Well, the volatility that bitcoin provides is what you're talking about. Why do you ever play a covered call strategy when, when you're playing a covered call strategy, what is the first filter you put on? Volatility filter like that is you want volatility to the max. Why? Because you can yield farm it. You can create income off of it. And the wealthiest people that I know play covered call strategies very effectively and they call it the rich man's game.
- [13:46]
C
Why?
- [13:47]
B
Because there's two options, right? And it's very simple and it's very similar to how Arch Public's built their arbitrage strategy. But it's, it's like I want to own this asset. So every time it doesn't go up in price, I'm going to buy more of it. I'm willing to take the delivery of the base asset. And so they essentially are setting prices below the current price at, you know, at a premium. And if they collect the premium, that's the cash flow that they generate. And if they don't collect the premium and they're stuck with the base asset, they're accumulating that over the long term anyways. So you're getting, you're achieving something on your investment side side, which is dollar cost averaging at a healthy cost curve. If you're wrong and you're achieving something on the yield side and you're generating cash income. If you're right, both are very valuable if you're not betting your last dollar. And if you can play that game at scale, you can have your cake and eat it too. Like there's really no, no missing at that point. And that's, that's, that's. You only get that type of a play when the volatility allows you to play that game. And what we're seeing is blackrock going, that is one hell of an athlete. You can play professional baseball, you can play professional basketball, you can play professional football. Bitcoin is the man, so to speak.
- [15:10]
A
You can play professional sword fighting if you're at Andrew's hotel room.
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C
That's right. Yeah, that's right, that's right, that's right. A room only fit for two shades.
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A
Of gray over here.
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B
Andrew doesn't Andrew, that actually, that's from your house, right? You travel with that. You have to have it to sleep.
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A
That's right.
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C
Yeah. I pack it and I bring it in. Cynthia sets it up for me.
- [15:33]
A
New York for Bitcoin Investor Week. Kelvin and I are both going tomorrow actually and we have a. Andrew, you're speaking with Pomp today. Gentlemen. Speaking with Pomp on Thursday. Yeah, everyone who goes to that conference speech with Pomp, which is pretty cool, but what are you going to talk about?
- [15:52]
C
Well, we talked off air what I was thinking of talking about, but, but I actually am going to talk about the suggestions. But yeah, I'm going to talk about the pivot in the, you know, sort of digital asset treasury space. Right. Like meaningful pivots away from just the accumulation of an asset and hope that it goes up and an adjustment into, you know, revenue producer producing a type of businesses to accumulate more of the asset that exists, you know, like a real business should, like a publicly traded company probably should, should run itself. You know, reality is, is that it was a. And you called this very, very early. Yeah, you know, I put out a post last week that, that you not only did you call it early, you called it as it was beginning to happen. You're like this, this sounds like a bad idea. This is going to be a bubble. There's 40, you know, Bitcoin treasury companies that are starting at the Bitcoin conference. 40, I mean, is that, that can't be. How can all those be successful? That doesn't make any sense. So you, you called it. Most people call stuff like before it starts to go bad and they're, they're considered intelligent. Like your call when it was actually about to happen was pretty extraordinary. Kudos.
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B
Well, I think it probably had a large part to do with the fact that he was getting phone calls from every one of them. His ph probably ringing off the hook.
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A
I like hit the casino floor. It was like, stop. I got seven ideas for you and they're all exactly the same.
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C
They were in a trench coat, opening their trench coat. He's got, look what we got.
- [17:27]
A
I mean literally one of them, and I won't say who it was, but he was like, we're over subscribed but I can get you in for the next three hours. And I was like, I'm sitting here at the conference, obviously don't have access to capital and I'm doing interviews. But yeah, let me get back to you in four hours. And I missed it, by the way. No, but, but yeah, that was a pretty wild and crazy trend. It's going to be interesting actually. Andrew, I can't wait to hear your speech, because obviously pomp for all the things pomp is, you know, he's the CEO, chairman, founder of Pro Cap, which is how he advertised himself now, which is one of those first bitcoin treasury companies. Now he has giga brain, Jeff park, like running their investment strategies. I have zero concerns there. Yeah, I mean, that's kind of a. That's a little interesting conversation for you to have with a guy who is very early to that.
- [18:17]
C
But it's important, it's important to do it though, because I think they're no different than any other movement. Right? There will be people that survive, there will be companies that survive. There will be ideas that survive. Like, you know, strategy is going to survive. Right? Strategy is, is, you know, let's just call it the Amazon of digital asset treasury companies. So there will be setups, quote, unquote, that survive.
- [18:43]
B
And well, even that statement is judged within a person's lifetime. Even Amazon won't survive. Like, there'll be an extinction event for Amazon. Businesses fail, they're all on a curve and they all have a decline section of the curve. And, you know, I will say this from a Treasury perspective. I think it's just different strokes for different folks. I do think the biggest telltale red flag for me, other than Scott's call was just how much money they were raising. It's just like, okay, guys, great idea. Infinite debt loop to raise capital for an asset that's growing and appreciating. Sounds great. Well, why don't we try it with like a few hundred million? Why don't we try it with a billion? Why do we have to like, put it on center stage and yell to the entire universe, this is bitcoin's primary purpose. It's just like too fast, too soon, get married tomorrow type thing. Well, that's when you know there's an ulterior motive, if you will. And bitcoin is the exact opposite of that. Bitcoin is the doesn't have emotions, doesn't care isn't about debt. It's sovereign in the fact that if you own it, you own it. Possession is everything. And, you know, I just think bitcoin is going to prove those characteristics through other vehicles. Treasury companies chose a route that was predicated on debt and predicated on kind of Wall Street's understanding of bitcoin and how it could be financially engineered. Not, not very sustainable over long periods of time. Nor is any product that's created that is synthetic like that just is the nature of the beast. So it Captured a lot of people's attention. It was a good gateway drug to understand the volatility of bitcoin and what could be done from an engineered perspective. But there's a lot safer ways to engineer your path forward in terms of bitcoin exposure. I look at tried and true reasons to buy bitcoin and it's always because you are sitting on cash. Your cash, we know, is losing value every single second that you hold it. So it's always a question of how liquid is it from a cash alternative perspective and what is the potential store of value characteristics that it maintains.
- [21:06]
A
Yeah, in my mind and Arch public's been a part of this, but I have really over the years seen a shift where everybody's like, how do you have dry powder to buy bitcoin at these levels? I don't view it anymore as buying bitcoin. I view it as putting money into my savings account. Yeah, yeah, right. And it's a bit like when you start to frame it that way, it's completely different. I don't really view it as an investment. I just want to own more bitcoin and not sit on cash in my bank account. So when I have the extra money, even if you're a reasonable person who was taught to save from an early age, take 10% of your paycheck and put it into a savings account, are you buying bitcoin or are you just moving it into your bitcoin savings account? It's a different framing. The problem is that they all got their lottery winnings and put it all into bitcoin at the top instead of adding their savings slowly.
- [21:53]
C
By the way, I just changed the subject of my talk later today. I'm going to shift and do debunking of negative narratives around bitcoin.
- [22:02]
A
Oh, I was hoping you were going to do the one that I suggested before the show.
- [22:07]
C
So no, I, I remembered, you know, I remembered the post that you put out about, you know, quantum risk and the, you know, the real truth that if quantum is a real risk with bitcoin, it's, it's. We have a much, much bigger problem than just bitcoin. Right. And I. Somebody responded to your post and saying, well, the banks can just turn their systems off.
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A
Yeah, I have non tech. I like.
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C
Take over the systems that they're not, you know, Are you.
- [22:38]
A
Yeah, you're missing the part where you don't control the system to turn it off anymore. But yeah, like let's. Yeah, they've got the nuclear codes, unplug the nukes.
- [22:50]
B
Listen, any fear, anything that causes you fear when you hold an asset should cause you pause. But the answer lies in your allocation percentage. Right? Mark Yesko did a great job. He was on a podcast recently and he was just breaking down all the various markets and how he follows a strategy where he looks at the beginning of every year at all of the things that, all the investments that he wants to make, and he creates a list of all the 10, the 10 most unlikely events that are, that could occur in each one of those sectors. And he says it's about 50, 50 split. But what he's found out is if he equally weights his investments across all of those sectors, the ones that do well do so well that they more than pay for the losers. And so the diversification of capital is the answer to your woes, is the answer to your problems. It's not cursing Bitcoin's volatility. How can you curse Bitcoin's volatility and believe in the same people that are saying that it's the best feature of bitcoin? Like, you can't have it both ways. Like, the consensus is that Bitcoin's volatility is the reason why Wall Street's building on it, is the very backbone of the value proposition that it possesses from a creation of financial innovation perspective. Why, why would you, on the same token, curse it and go, it's down 30%, 40% from its high last year. Well, guess what? That's the feature. And if you don't have a knowledge of how to capitalize on that, let's say you're a firm, a big firm, an institutional investor, and you want to accumulate a large quantity of bitcoin over a 10 year period. Well, you're buying every dip over a 10 year, that's your base strategy. You're accumulating over that curve and you want healthy exposure. You want as many purchases on that as you can. Well, let's say there's a parabolic rise in price along that journey. Well, you should be hedging against the profits that you've made on that parabolic spike. Why? Well, because parabolic spikes don't last. So capture that profit along the way. Well, how do you capture it without selling your bitcoin? You short it. You use structured products to go play against your primary position and you're able to make more money doing that along that curve than if you were just riding the curve. And, and so if you're, if you aren't, if you don't have that piece of the puzzle, you know, figured out yet. Do some research, because there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of things that you can use to. To, you know, counterbalance profits or take profits or hedge the market, if you will, against your primary position. Arch public. We do. We do it with software, and I do it in the spot market. But you can do it with leveraging, do it with a lot of exchanges. There's lots of ways to accomplish that goal, but that's what's happening.
- [25:57]
A
You guys lost me something cool.
- [26:00]
B
Yeah.
- [26:00]
A
When I was looking down before, I was trying to find this, I found it. We had obviously, the move from like 70,000 down to 60,000 and then retrace the entire thing back to the upside the next day. Right. When in the 70s came down, there was a theory from a market legend on why that bounce happened. It is one Jim Cramer, who has heard President may buy Bitcoin around 60k to fill the strategic bitcoin reserve.
- [26:29]
C
Listen, I don't want to use pejoratives that are going to hurt anybody's feelings, but that's just remarkably.
- [26:37]
A
You heard it.
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C
Not serious.
- [26:39]
B
What a limb to go out on, is what I have to say. That takes some pretty big.
- [26:43]
A
That's what I'm saying, man. Like, far out there. And that was.
- [26:48]
B
It's. It's like it's almost so far out there, he couldn't have made it up. He had to have heard it from somewhere, and he had to think that source is credible or he wouldn't have repeated it.
- [26:57]
C
At some point, you lose your edge a lot. You know, obviously Kramer's lost his edge about a decade ago, but, I mean, all last week, all last week, his Twitter account turned into basically a microstrategy troll account. Like, he just kept trolling microstrategy and sailor and saying, oh, you know, 63 is the numbers. You know, Michael Saylor better get in here and. And defend the blah, blah, blah. And I'm looking at it going, like, what? Don't you have something better to do?
- [27:26]
A
It was literally like it was crashing over the weekend and some tweet, I don't want to misquote it, but he was like, you'd think that bitcoin bulls would step in at these levels on a weekend. And I'm like, during the weekend.
- [27:39]
C
It's just very. It's just very odd. Like, you know, okay, I guess you're just kind of an old man, you know, get off my lawn. You know, that. I guess we all turn into that guy. Maybe I, I don't know. Of course I'm probably close to it because I love my lawn so much in the spring and summer, but that's a different conversation. Yeah, it's just, it's, it's, it's embarrassing, honestly, is what it is. The reason why it's embarrassing is because it flies in the face of the reality that again, people that for all intents and purposes run the entirety of the global financial markets again. Larry Fink has now has two products directly associated with both Bitcoin and now Bitcoin options. And so the idea that somehow over the next three to five years, Bitcoin's going to find itself at 30k and stay there is insanity. There's just, it's.
- [28:35]
B
Unless Larry Fink wants it there.
- [28:38]
C
Yeah, that doesn't make sense.
- [28:40]
B
See, that's my point is like, yes, well, why wouldn't he want it there? There's no, if you look at any market cycle, there has to be for these guys a large period of capitulation for them to accumulate.
- [28:54]
A
BlackRock themselves are buying. But he certainly doesn't want it there if it crushes their, for all of his customers.
- [28:59]
C
Yeah. All of his institutions that have put billions of dollars into it. No, he's like, yeah, it's going to be painful.
- [29:05]
B
Well, I will say this. You have to, you set up your home runs, right? You, you put your home run hitter as the fourth hitter in the lineup for a reason because you want guys on base when that guy hits the ball. And I'm just saying, like, even the Trump setup right now, it reeks of a setup. Like we have this, no interest rates. It's like a big theatrics of like pinned up. And then we're going to have an explosion event and then that explosion event is going to take us to, you know, everybody's going to have euphoric, you know, rise in, in dopamine again and go bitcoins back. And it's just the nature of humans. It, it, that's, that's why charts look the same, is because all humans are the same. And we all think we're different. We all think we react differently. But we, at the end of the day, we, we, we aren't.
- [29:51]
C
And so I didn't Mark Yesko say yesterday that he thinks bitcoin is going to be between 607, 100K by 2029. Right. So that's three years. Right. Even if we extend it, it's three and a half years. So we have a 10X on Bitcoin in the next three years that, that seems.
- [30:12]
B
He said a million, he backed into a million, which is great because that's exactly what the number we projected in the fund, which is, you know, a million dollar bitcoin puts it at a $20 trillion market cap. That's half of gold's market cap. Right now if we say it's Gold 2.0, we probably should be at least half of Gold 1.0's market cap. That's what my thought would be.
- [30:42]
C
Even if you only get halfway there, half of that $600,000 number is 300K. And on an annualized basis. Those are big numbers. Those are huge numbers that wildly outperform traditional indices that, that people follow. Right. To go from 70 to 300 in the next three years.
- [31:02]
B
Silver went.
- [31:03]
C
What is that? Is that, is that a 4, 4 plus X? Right?
- [31:06]
B
It's what silver did. It's exactly what silver did. Silver went from 27 bucks to, you know, 125 bucks. So. Or 100, whatever it was. So yeah, but that's the nature of the markets these days and that's what they want. That's when they make all their money. Right? Because right when those blow off tops happen, they know how to hedge their profits.
- [31:27]
A
Right.
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B
And they make money on the way down too. It's just raking the leaves into piles.
- [31:33]
C
Well, think about how crappy sentiment will remain even when we're at like, like 105, even when we get to above 100, everybody'd be like, yeah, who cares? We all had parties back at 100. That was stupid.
- [31:48]
B
But here's my question back to both of you guys. I agree that Larry Fink wouldn't like it for his quote, customers if bitcoin went down to 30,000 for any extended period of times. Unless, and this would be my big caveat, unless ETF inflows increased during that time period. When you.
- [32:07]
C
Sure, sure that that makes sense. But obviously they're paid on the.
- [32:11]
B
Well, who do you think would be coming out of the, off the, off the bench to buy bitcoin? If it was at 30,000 for a while, it wouldn't be is retail. It'd be a bunch of institutions. The more money would flow into bitcoin from bigger players than we've ever seen.
- [32:26]
C
According to Jim Cramer, President Trump is loading the boat at 30.
- [32:30]
A
Imagine what he was doing. There's a lot of actually like pretty substantial fundamental news happening right now as well. I don't know if you guys saw this, but just pivoting to tokenization update tokenized U.S. treasury's market cap surpasses 10 billion. Last time we were reporting on this it was 2 or 3, right. I think it's still around a year. But with Ondo Finance, Securitized, Circle and Superstate as leading issuers, we've also seen like a massive explosion of non USDC and USDT stablecoins on Solana, specifically a 10x. So stablecoin usage obviously in crypto increasing and Solana interestingly leading all payment platforms. I was like, oh, whatever man. It's beating bnb, Ethereum and Tron, all payment platforms. And I went to the left and it's like, actually includes PayPal and stuff. Death.
- [33:19]
C
Yeah, yeah.
- [33:20]
B
If you, well, if you look at China and you look at the exports, the, the China US relationship is materially changed in our lifetime. You know, the made in China, all the imports to the US that we're down to like 10% of their exports, they, they've replaced us because of the tension between us and they've replaced us with new middle classes that are fresh, growing, being one of them. So you, you've got this potential of a middle class resurgence in China and India. And if you just serve those populations, I think China has 750 million middle class citizens. You've, you've done exactly what America did to build its reputation and build, become the consumer state. And then you are able to control the currency based upon the US dollar being the reserve currency. That's all changing. And the safe haven of the traditional assets that we grew up thinking were the safe haven, I think those, those paradigms are shifting. You know, I remembered last year at the Bitcoin conference, this narrative. Everybody said the 6040 is dead, the 6040 is dead. I think it's a lot more dead than we thought. I don't even think it's 60, 40, the percentages are shifting anymore. I think the assets are shifting. I think bonds may be dead, I think equities may be dead. I. You need a fresh look at what you're putting your money in because I think emerging markets are back and I think the future is going to be who is the most innovative because the connectivity is there. And so I do hope that we have a crescendo event during Trump's presidency on the crypto front where we unveil the new future of finance. The interconnected, fully operational 247 markets, you know, 365 settled instantly on blockchain. If we do that, we have a reason to be at the table. You know, talking about dollar dominance again, if we don't, I don't know what narrative, you know, even if you go into the AI narrative. Well, they have. Both of those countries have equally compelling AI narratives to us. You know what I mean? So it's like, where do we. Well, crypto is that opportunity. I really believe it with all my heart. And I think we're going to seize it. But I just think there's. You have to get everybody real, real hungry before you feed them. And everybody's getting hungry. I think the rounding bottom is showing that.
- [36:05]
A
Andrew's hungry because he has a speech.
- [36:07]
C
Hungry?
- [36:09]
A
Who's hungry? I want to know, when you sent the idea for your speech, did Pop tell you you couldn't talk about that? And that's.
- [36:16]
C
No, no, no, no. In fact, I hadn't sent it yet. I just thought that that would be a good, you know, a good topic. I hadn't sent it.
- [36:25]
B
Listen, he'll change his mind five more times between.
- [36:28]
A
What are you talking about?
- [36:29]
B
On Thursday, I'm going to talk about the continued evolution of Bitcoin products and the fund itself. I'm there talking about Future Fund 1 as the managing partner and talking about how, you know, we believe in buying Bitcoin in a very consistent way with earned capital, with, with, with found dollars, essentially, not with raised capital, not with, you know, leveraged capital, but really with savings, like using it in the way in which it was intended, its best and most valuable attributes. And if you look at like steak and shake, we're a huge believer in that. We think every. We think the way to rebuild the middle class in America is for every quick service restaurant, every small mom and pop, every single entrepreneur to use Bitcoin as a savings account. If you do that in your small business, you may find yourself having a lot more purchasing power in the future. We're betting that. And so, you know, I think to, to a healthy degree, everyone should bet that, you know, whatever that healthy degree is. If your profit margins are very tight and you're, you know, losing money, then that's probably not a safe bet. But if you're making money and you are saying, okay, well, where should I keep this capital? Should I keep it in cash? Should I invest it back into my business and all those questions, I think there should be a consideration to have Bitcoin in that strategy at some percentage.
- [37:57]
A
So the Future Fund has a soda franchise, right?
- [38:04]
B
Swig.
- [38:05]
A
So can we get in touch with lacroix and, well, listen, instead of Swig, then they can come on the Show I can come up with their marketing and we can take the profits.
- [38:18]
C
Yeah, we can do it.
- [38:20]
B
You know the people, you know the happiest group of bitcoiners that I've ever met, the ones that never got hurt on price? The early miners.
- [38:29]
A
Yeah.
- [38:30]
B
Why? Well, because they were making little bits of bitcoin every single day. There was no, there was no price risk. They were incrementally being placed into the price curve at such increments that there was no price risk at all. So how do you do that now that mining opportunities are not available at that level, you're fighting over 5% of the supply at massive levels. That's not really, from a retail perspective, you can't do that. My theory, and this is What Future Fund 1 is doing, is at the point of sale, incrementally collect Bitcoin as a portion of your sale price. If you're selling soda and you're selling that soda for a dollar, make it a $10 and put that 10 cents into Bitcoin at the point of sale every time the soda clicks. That is an extremely powerful notion. And if people spend enough time understanding why it's powerful, I believe they'll be compelled to do it because it's about a riskless way. If you can fit the margin inside of your product to continue your, to offset business risk, to make sure that you essentially are saving money in a way that could prevent you from going out of business in the event that you run into one of those anomaly events. I remember an anomaly event in 2008. If you owned a construction company in 2008, you go talk to a hundred construction company owners and say hey, how was 2008? They will all go, I, it was razor's edge. I, I made it by the skin of my teeth. And it was by and, and so, you know, those types of events happen to every industry. Well, if you're sitting on bitcoin and you've saved it with 10% of every soda sales, you're impervious to those blips if you've been doing it long enough. And that, you know, that's what we believe here at Arch Public. It's what we believe in future friend 1 it's what we believe is kind of the most valuable attributes to bitcoin by a long shot.
- [40:41]
A
Yeah, you guys had a pretty good Friday.
- [40:44]
C
Well I was just about to jump.
- [40:47]
A
By you guys, I mean me because people might forget that we had a ten thousand dollar test portfolio that we started here trading equities so many Years ago. And that did pretty good. On top of the fact that all of the Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum that I bought at the dead lows using Arch Public bounced a good, you know, 10, 15, 20%, whatever it was, of course I bought a lot higher. So it's not like that's across the crypto portfolio. But zooming in on that day, you had a massive day on the equity side and on the crypto side.
- [41:14]
C
Well, imagine if you're an Arch Public client and you're diversified of both across crypto and futures. And that's a little case study that our data and research team put together over the weekend. And you know, you're going about your day, hearing the news, oh, this is not doing well, this is crashing. You look up and then you just go to your two accounts, you know, on late in the day on Friday and Saturday morning and say, well none of my stuff crashed. I, I did exceptional, like holy smokes, I, I made a ton of money over that 48 hour period. And that's the real extraordinary power of, you know, algorithmic type of, of work where your hands are off the wheel and you're allowing systems to, to make decisions for you. You know, and another reminder that you know, our, our futures algos are generally out of the market completely more, you know, and are only in the market about, let's call it 10%.
- [42:13]
A
Maybe I forget they exist maybe.
- [42:16]
C
Yeah, right. So they, they'll make two or three or four trades a month, but other than that they're just not participating. They're looking for opportunity, grab that opportunity and, and run with it. So you have these moments, listen, 43 in a 24 hour period. I don't know what can we say about that other than the numbers speaking.
- [42:38]
B
It's an anomaly is what we can say about it. Yeah, it is an absolute anomaly, but it is, it's a testimony and a testament to volatility and, and how you approach volatility. If you were just a SAT stacker or anything that went down as much as it did over that time period, you lost in your primary holdings. But if you were a trader and you knew how to hedge, you gained a lot in yield and it, and, and that's the trade off. Right. And that, that's what you should be doing with highly volatile assets is you should have a yield farming type of approach and you should try to harness that volatility and capture it when it's moving and swinging both ways. But you should also be doing that in asset classes that you're not afraid to be stuck with the asset in because at the end of the day, if the volatility doesn't happen or it doesn't go your way, you're going to be left holding bitcoin. Well, if you're fine left holding bitcoin, then who cares? On days like Friday, you make a, you know, you, you make a ton on the yield, but at the same time, you know, you lost on your bitcoin, your primary holdings. That's the nature of diversification. And you, you don't have to worry at that point. There's always something popping, there's always something. You know, I've heard this saying as a trader, there's a new train leaving the station every single day. So just, you know, start betting standing at the station and betting on every train, you know, and the winners, typically in this day and age, because of the amount of capital that we see in the markets and how quick the capital can shift to other markets, the winners more than pay for your losers. Right? And so if you're going to pick one and you're going to ride one horse and you're going to bet on one horse and you're not going to diversify, then you're going to have to wait until that horse has its, quote, day in the sun, or that dog has its day in the sun. But that may take a long time and if you have patience, you probably will be right. If you pick a good asset, like.
- [44:46]
A
I said, view it as your savings account. Yeah, you got forever.
- [44:51]
B
It's the simplest way to do it. Right.
- [44:53]
C
Scott, you mentioned earlier that, you know, you get questions like how do you still have dry powder? Well, you, you personally experienced that on Friday, right, where you, there were purchases that were actually made, but then you got new dry powder because you actually had small exits on Solana and Ethereum. If, if I'm remembering it correctly, that, okay, there's your dry powder. So now you have dry powder for the next time bitcoin moves in the direction you want it to, to pick up more. Right. It was, it was created inside of that 12 hour period. That volatility. You grabbed it. Okay, new dry powder so I can buy again when there's another dip.
- [45:30]
B
Well, that's a great point, Andrew, and let's highlight it from a percentage perspective. Let's just say Scott says I want 10 of my tradable capital into bitcoin for ex. Well, if he wants that, you're essentially programming the ALGO to maintain 7, you know, 7, 75% of that allocation at any given point in time. You don't want 100% of that 10% placed, right? Because then you have no dry powder. You want to maintain about 75% to 85% allocation of that dry powder. And what happens is you have these volatility events to the upside that you cash out on, and it creates this big amount of, you know, this huge capital event for your account. Now you have maybe down to, you know, now you have 60% allocation. Well, guess what? That is what you want, because the next big dip that happens, you're going to place that capital in. And if you just sit there and you place capital on dips and you sell a little bit on. On spikes, it's really a mean regression play where you're essentially betting on a stable, a return to mean you're. You're betting on the price essentially, not always staying on the peak and the trough at their, you know, widest swings, but actually coming back down to some. Some semblance of. Of. Of normal or the mean vwap.
- [46:55]
C
Scott, you. You had something to say there before you were so rudely cut off by Tillman.
- [47:02]
A
It's fine. I'm used to it. Somebody just said this in the comments. You guys might have missed this. Just as a total aside, James Wynn called Scott a bitch yesterday for suggesting dca. Pretty funny exchange. So on crypto town hall, just do James Wynn, you know, the like, yeah, yeah, yeah, liquid hundred million dollar loss, gain, whatever. But first of all, I've never heard this guy talk. It was like listening to Brad Pitt and snatch just screaming drunkenly. It was amazing. Like, I did no idea what he's saying, right? And then he like, I guess had the audacity to say that the entire audience was there for him, even though it was like a slower day. You know, we were like, yeah, we have. And I was like, people here today. And he goes, nobody's a bigger bitch in crypto Twitter than you for getting people wrecked. That's what he said. And I let everybody talk for a while and then I was like, you know, man, I've been called a lot worse by a lot better. Yeah. And if you have ever watched me, I literally say dollar cost average into bitcoin on a really long time frame. And I was like, they never to use leverage. And if he was like, but you told people to buy at the top at 125k, mate. And I was like, yeah. And I told him to buy at the bottom at 60k and at 8k and he's like, I tell. I don't. He said, first of all, he, like, used condone wrong in a sentence like, seven times in a row. But he said, like, I. I don't tell people to use leverage. And I'm like, dude, you're, like, posting your 50.
- [48:32]
B
If I followed his account and I mimicked his trades, I'd be homeless. So I don't understand.
- [48:41]
A
Guys. I don't do accents, Okay? I don't do accents.
- [48:44]
C
Yeah.
- [48:46]
A
I mean, that's. I don't know, but. And listen. And I was like, dude, all due respect, I don't care what you say. Like, if you're actively showing people your massive leverage positions and that's your career, and you have the audacity to tell me I'm a bitch for getting people wrecked by telling you to dollar cost average. It was, like, the most astounding claim.
- [49:06]
B
Sounds like engagement farming to me. Listen, I've seen this with crypto for a long time, and it's sad because you meet guys and they're genuine crypto people, and you have a lot of passion about crypto, and you talk to them at the conference, then they start their Twitter account, and they get a little bit of fame, and now it's all about the engagement. They don't even. It's not like you can't even talk about crypto anymore with them, because all they want to talk about is, like, how many fans, how many followers they've picked up in the last two weeks. And I don't want to name names, but they post that stuff all the time, and it's just like, okay, well, it sounds. At least we know why you're in it now. You know what I mean?
- [49:45]
C
Yeah. The minute you post a graphic that shows how many followers you gained in the last week, the game's over, man. I mean, the game's over. Like, what. Why are you here? Don't you.
- [49:57]
B
Well, it means that you're gonna create drama to get more followers, which is what he's doing to you is, like, tearing the guy down. That's.
- [50:05]
A
And Dave. Dave, like, restarted. And Dave. We had a little banter. And Dave Weisberg. I guess I made a joke about Bad Bunny because that's, like, my favorite joke today. Yesterday. So I guess that's so yesterday. But then Dave started, like, going off on politics and whatever, and James, when jumps and goes, can we talk about crypto? We're like, oh, yeah, I guess you're the host. That was the worst. That was an even worse accident. I just did. I'm not gonna even try that anymore.
- [50:29]
B
Is he even a crypto guy? I didn't even know. I thought he was more of like a, you know, a leverage trader guy.
- [50:36]
A
Leverage trader, you know, and that's how.
- [50:39]
B
He made his money in hyper liquid.
- [50:42]
A
No, he made his money on a meme coin, I believe. I don't want to speak out of turn. And then took all of it and lost all of it on his first leverage trade of all time. And it was like everybody was trading the billion dollar. Yeah, but he.
- [50:55]
B
But he has a lot of followers.
- [50:58]
A
Pepe Whale, I think.
- [51:00]
C
Yeah, Pepe Whale. I mean, that's, you know, claim to fame. It is what it is.
- [51:06]
A
There's different ways.
- [51:08]
B
I wouldn't expect a guy that made his money on Pepe Whale to like, DCA I that right now.
- [51:16]
A
Guys, you.
- [51:17]
C
Kind of got a Pepe sweatshirt on right now. I'm. I like that you got a Pepe look to you. You know what I mean?
- [51:22]
A
He's dressed as Pepe.
- [51:24]
B
There he is, north face.
- [51:26]
A
Notice that.
- [51:27]
C
Just an FYI, Tillman has had to update his wardrobe, given his slimming. That has happened over the past several months.
- [51:34]
A
He's been doing slimming?
- [51:35]
C
He's been doing some slimming.
- [51:37]
B
As they say, when you go from grossly overweight to overweight. You don't advertise that, Andrew. It's you. Wait, listen, I have a whole separate closet with all my fat clothes in, just in case I relapse.
- [51:53]
A
So he decided to dress as broccoli. Oh, God.
- [52:07]
B
That's a great transition there. That was as good as a transition as the. The Super Bowl. The alternative super bowl halftime show transitions. They went from Kid Rock to, you know, cello symphony music in one fell swoop.
- [52:25]
C
Yeah. Yeah, it did look good.
- [52:27]
A
Arch public, you guys could check it out here. But more importantly, the three of us, if you're in New York City, we will be gathering. What are you. What are we doing tomorrow? I arrived tomorrow in the afternoon. And you are. You guys are just like, we got an agenda.
- [52:41]
B
So you.
- [52:42]
C
You're going to be at a VIP dinner with a bunch of our, you know, about 40 of our most interesting clients. And so we'll enjoy that. And then Thursday, you're doing a bunch of live interviews in the VIP space at Bitcoin Investor Week with folks that most people find compelling.
- [53:00]
A
Yeah. All right, now we got Matt Hogan. I had. I was like, matt, you were on the show last week, but we're in the same room. We gotta do that. Dan Tapiero, who, like, amazing Chris Giancarlo, Grant Cardone working on. Depending on scheduling. We'll have Lynn, Alden, Mitch, Nick maybe waiting to hear back from him. Oh, Mooch. We're doing. For sure. I got that Mooch. I lost. They tried to. His assistant tried to give me the. We're flying in from Hong Kong. A dodo five time. I was like, okay, we'll do it after your speech instead of before. So I know you're there.
- [53:30]
C
What's. What's strange is what I don't hear in that list is Andrew and Tillman.
- [53:41]
A
We just did Tuesday, Thursday.
- [53:45]
C
That's. That's a little.
- [53:46]
A
Yeah. And I'm gonna. I'm going to attempt to do. Well, you know what. Or attempt to do the live show this show Thursday morning from there with the setup.
- [53:55]
C
Cool.
- [53:55]
B
Oh, nice. That'd be fun.
- [53:56]
A
I should do is just grab people and. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You guys will come on. Working on all that.
- [54:03]
B
If you're an arch public customer, I want to encourage you. We love getting together with all of our customers. There's over 120 of our customers coming to this event. So don't be shy. We'd love to meet you face to face. And come. We're going to be at the bitcoin conference, obviously. I think it's in April, isn't it this year?
- [54:23]
A
Get that going now. Yeah, I usually plan these things. I'm like, when's New York again? You're like, oh, it's in three days.
- [54:34]
B
We've literally been talking about it for a month and a half.
- [54:37]
A
Yeah, but invite. Yesterday. Whatever. But look at all those guests that we drummed up.
- [54:48]
C
Yeah, we pulled it off. Yeah, pulled it off.
- [54:51]
A
Chris, John, Carlo. I love that guy. I can't wait to talk to him again. All right, guys, that's all we got. Andrew, good luck on your speech today. Watch out, there's a sword behind your head. Hitch. Anytime, Tillman. I'll see you guys tomorrow. And everybody will be together. So I'm sure you guys will definitely. They'll see you Thursday one way or another. Yeah, we'll be back together. Thank you, everybody. See you.
- [55:11]
C
See ya.
- [55:13]
B
Let's do.