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Mario Nofel
Good morning everybody. Welcome to Crypto town Hall. Friday, April 11, every weekday, 10:15ish AM Eastern Standard Time here on X, hosted by myself, Mario Novel, I should say the ghost of Mario Nofel and the not even ghost of Rand Nooner because we can't even get his ghost to show up. But either way, it is a show hosted in theory by the three of us. Here we are though, with another amazing panel as the trade wars accelerate and nobody has any idea what the hell is going on, giving us a great excuse to sit here and pretend we do and to share our unwanted opinions on everything, Bitcoin, macro and otherwise. Actually, they're wanted because at least 5,000 of you show up every day to discuss. But to me right now, there's two stories and everything else is just details. Obviously tariffs is all that matters. But to zoom in further on that, China, right, I think that everything else, every other country is just a detail, maybe a negotiation, but China clearly not backing down. This is a country obviously that kept its citizens in lockdown for a couple extra years. I don't think they're willing to flinch when it comes to economic pain when it. But they basically doubled down, matched the United States 125% tariffs and said literally their words do not come at me. They said Trump is a joke, but they said his policies are a joke here. So obviously they're not taking it particularly seriously. And the other thing that's not taking any of this seriously at all, which I think is the number two that actually matters, is the bond market. If the idea here obviously was to bring down rates, to refinance the debt lower, to unlock mortgages to get the economy going, well, we're currently at 4.569% up from a low of 4.39% today. That doesn't sound like a big number when you're talking about the Treasuries. It's a massive, massive move. And just last Friday, one week ago, 10 year yields hit 3.86%. Now trading significantly higher back to levels where they haven't been since February. So a few months ago. Obviously if the goal is to reduce yields, it's not working right now. So let's jump to the panel, very small but very distinguished and established at the moment. Jonathan, you haven't been here in a bit, buddy. What do you make of all this?
Jonathan
Personally, I love it. I love this stuff. This is, this is great. This is so much fun from a trading perspective. But if you're somebody who's looking at, if you don't know what's going on. If you're worried it sucks. We pulled our stock to its users with MicroStrategy MSTR asking if Bitcoin approaches their average cost of 66k what do people think? Is it bullish? Likely to bottom soon? Bearish leverage is recipe for disaster. But 64% of voters think that the bottom is likely in soon. And when you look at onchain analytics which is. Which is a really. It's like a cheat code for crypto. I wish this existed for equity market.
Mario Nofel
Sorry, my hand accidentally hit the mute everyone button. Keep going Jonathan. Jonathan might just still be talking not knowing that he's muted.
Adam
Possible.
Jonathan
I got it.
Mario Nofel
I'm sorry Matt here that was my fault. But made for good entertainment regardless.
Jonathan
There we go. But if you look at the spent output profit ratio it's one of those fancy on chain analytic terms it measures whether people are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. For Bitcoin over the last 90 days it's been pretty flat. Anything that dips below one means that people are selling at a loss. You look at the second, the second highest crypto market cap Ethereum.
Simon
It.
Jonathan
It looks like it fell out of the punch me in the face tree hit every branch on the way down and now nobody's helping it get up. Like dogs are peeing on looks dead. But the rest of the altcoin market is sitting down in the doldrums. But nobody is really selling. Like people are not buying in but nobody's really like pushing it further south. They're not leaving these positions. Neither is there a ton of acc. There's a sense of very, very, very like as neutral as you could get right now.
Mario Nofel
Yeah. You could make the argument that alts have already sold off so hard that there's nobody left to sell.
Jonathan
That is very true but. Well, there are a lot of new active addresses. If you look at like the 60 day, I believe it's. There's a lot of new active addresses. I think a lot of them are at like a six month high but they're still not selling. And of those active addresses a lot adding very small positions throughout this entire process. So. But you know people who've been in crypto for more than one or two bear markets know the, you know the song and dance and if you've been in crypto long enough you. These type, these types of opportunities are great. You got to be as happy as a fat kid in a candy store to buy one, get 10 free day.
Simon
Yeah.
Mario Nofel
But what's kind of crazy is a lot of these altcoins were down, you know, 75, 80, 90% from the last bear market and since December have dropped another 75 or 80%. This is one of those buy the dip that keeps on dipping situations. So I can understand the disbelief and frustration within the community at the fact that these just continue down and right if nobody's selling right now. Jonathan, to play devil's advocate this, by the way, I tend to agree with you. But when you see things start to go sideways on low volume after a move down, that's usually a signal that there's going to be continuation of the downtrend, not some huge spike to the upside. Right. Unless of course, it's. It's accumulation.
Jonathan
Correct. Either way, I, I think, I mean, for me at least, I fear the miss. I fear missing an opportunity as opposed to I miss a temporary paper loss on any new positions. That, that's, that's how I feel.
Mario Nofel
That makes sense. Joe, he's talking about onchain. That screams for me to go to you and hear what you're seeing and thinking about all of this, especially as you were tracking sentiment.
Joe
Yeah, I mean, you have to, you have to be looking at macro. You've got to be looking at the broader market. Things are still somewhat correlated. You know, I know we saw a day, a day and a half there where Bitcoin started to kind of feel a little less correlated with the equity market, specifically the nasdaq. It kind of reminded me of that scene from like the Big Short where, you know, some of the mortgage companies start going out of business and he starts to get like sick in his stomach and he's like, I gotta call my mom. Right. Because it's, it's that moment that it starts to unravel. It's like in, in a sense, it's almost like exciting when the, when it starts to decorrelate a little bit. But then it also kind of sinks your stomach because you're like, holy, where are we going? So we had a couple of days like that over the last week, which has been a little interesting. But, you know, you, you kind of have to look at macro. Like the VIX is up another like 10%.
Mario Nofel
Again.
Joe
We're sitting at 44. You know, the 12% uptrend on that one day was very reflective of, you know, a, like a, you know, a relief rally in the middle of a bear market is what it is, really what it felt like.
Mario Nofel
People forget that the biggest rallies, you don't see 12% upside rallies in a steady, healthy bull market.
Joe
Not at all. Not at all. So, you know, it's like, what can you do here? You know, it. You could buy a little bit, you know, each day, if you can. On red days, obviously, more preferably. And then, you know, close your portfolio and come back in two years when the Vix is sitting, you know, at 20 or 10 or whatever it is. And you probably did pretty good. But you're gonna have, you know, Vix up to 60, you know, Vix up to 80, who knows? Over the course of the, the next couple weeks here. And it, you know, I woke up this morning, Scott, and it was like the first, it was so the stupid first thought in my head was like, man, you know, this whole thing is really like dependent on like three or four people and, and you really just need those three or four people to just agree publicly on something and like all of this goes away. Isn't that wild?
Mario Nofel
If they just, if they just agree.
Joe
Publicly on something, you know, the, the.
Mario Nofel
Couple I assume you're speaking of, Trump, Ascent and Lutnick, very poor.
Adam
Yeah.
Joe
And, and then like G, you know, and then Jay Powell, like, you know, if they, if they all just were like sitting there like, hey, do you guys think the, like, this is true? And like, yeah, we all think this is true and then we all say that publicly. Suddenly, like, everything is just calm, but there's just too much uncertainty currently still right now, people don't know exactly where things are going. A 90 day pause, great. But now it's like, you know, if.
Mario Nofel
You uncertainty, if you have 80 countries.
Joe
That you have to deal with every day, you've got some sort of agreement that needs to happen that's going to be slightly different. Right. So I think it's just, that's why it was a relief rally in the middle of a bear like scenario that we're in. And sentiment is still very low. We're seeing low sentiment, we're seeing low social numbers. Less people talking about crypto, less people talking, you know, specifically about like the rest of the market. It's all bitcoin. And so it's, you know, if you're a builder and you're a founder, obviously, like we say, it's just a great time to put the blinders on, maybe just like uninstall X and you know, go to, go to work, try to close a round of funding, make it happen and come back in a little bit. But man, it's gonna, it will drive you crazy sitting through this because it is a self inflicted kind of wound that we're putting ourselves through here. You know, I do think that. Yes. Is it, it's not a good thing that we have to spend, you know, 1.3 to $1.8 trillion deficit the last three years. Like something has to be done there. This is his way of doing that. And so it's a tbd, but man, we're all kind of getting dragged through the mud on the way up.
Mario Nofel
Yeah, I've been hearing anecdotally, but also there's a lot of reports sort of that VC activity. Anyone raising money right now is completely confused and in disbelief and doesn't know what to do. Circle reportedly now thinking about pausing their IPO. Klarna. Pausing their IPO. StubHub I think pausing their IPO when just two weeks ago it was all systems go for everybody to go public and markets to be open. So it just seems like massive, massive confusion. Adam, welcome. Go ahead.
Simon
Hey guys. Yeah, I'm not really a trader, I'm not an investor. I see the world through the pinhole of a lawyer advising crypto and payments scenarios for a long time. And there's a kind of stealth bullish trend that I'm seeing which is a inclusion of stablecoin into traditional fiat payment flows with basically Visa in the lead, including USDC in some of it. Merch of its merchant settlement activity mostly in Europe now, but it's starting to spread to the US what's the point here? The point is, is that with Stablecoin entering the traditional fiat payment processing space, basically you have a stealth on ramp into crypto because once that value gets into Stablecoin, it's a kind of, I guess you could say a gateway currency towards Bitcoin. And I don't know, I just, I just wanted to throw that in the mix and, and just add that something I'm seeing from my particular vantage point.
Mario Nofel
Thanks, Adam. Simon, go ahead.
Fred
Hey, Scott. A danger of being parabolic, we are in one of the most changing times. I believe we are in the midst of a currency war. And if people think that this is something different, then I think you're missing the severity of the situation. With 10 year treasuries up, with 30 year treasuries up, with the dollar crashing half the amount that it did in the Plaza Accord, which is a coordinated.
Mario Nofel
Gold up a few percent today and gold up a few percent at 3253, up 2.5% already just today.
Fred
Yeah, absolutely. A capital outflow into foreign countries selling Treasuries and buying The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. This is complete capital outflows and a recollibration in a currency war. If you think that we solve this issue through tax reform, I think you're missing the boat. This can only be solved by monetary reform. You can't solve a monetary issue with tax reform. And so that is the confusion that most people are in. And confusion is the strategy because we are in what we are experiencing today. Again, I don't want to be parabolic, but I'm just telling you what I believe to be true. What we are seeing today is the reason why a gold standard existed. A gold standard existed in order to deal with trade imbalances and fiscal imbalances. The Nixon shock is the reason why there is what we're experiencing between China and America today. They are trying to fix it with tax reform when the only thing you can fix it with is monetary reform. So now you're looking at two forms of broken money off the dollar trying to fix it. One is that you look to the Fed and they do the disastrous thing that everyone may want them to do of reducing rates and doing some kind of QE which will completely break the system. If they do that, or they do nothing, and you realize that this is capital outflows as a result of rebalancing because America's in. I don't get the numbers. If. If America actually thinks they can win this trade war. America needs to import Chinese goods. China doesn't need to import American goods. China can say, we won't import any of your iPhones, but we will sell Huawei phones. The internal story in China is completely different to the internal story in America. If you're rebuilding your manufacturing base, which may take you a minimum of five years, to turn an iPhone that costs $1,000 into $10,000, then understand that the change has already happened. There is no reversing this policy. This policy is here. And capital has said America is too uncertain under the current administration. If you compare. If you're a global capital allocator and you're comparing the Trump administration to Xi Jinping, where do you feel it's more stable right now? China's got $3 trillion of reserves, 22,000 tons of gold, and doesn't need to buy anything from America, its industry, which Western propaganda has said is like the Fed and about to collapse, when it's already got a state banking system, which is radically different to the over leverage of a Federal Reserve system. It can. 15% of its exports are America. Yeah, of course, that will hurt it, that will harm it. But it could find, you know, you could find new partners to make up some of that 15%. And it doesn't necessarily need to because it's got the reserves to sustain it. However, on the American side, we can see that if the dollar breaks, what impact does that have on credit markets? What impact does that have on the ability to roll over the national debt? This is a controlled demolition. This is capital outflows. This is a recollection of the economy based upon the fact that America went off the gold standard and defaulted in 71 and used the federal Reserve System in order to extract as much value out of the middle class and hand it over to the wealthy. Those wealthy are not America First. America has sold all of its politicians and all of its capital and all of its industry to global multinational financial institutions that have said, trump, please come here. Recolliborate the economy. We're deciding that we need to balance our capital around the world because the American side is too unstable right now. I just believe that. And now you've got to look that into a bitcoin and crypto story. Prior to Trump being installed, in order to exert their strategy, BlackRock got all of the financial institutions into Bitcoin. The central banks were accumulating gold at the fastest rate possible. So the gold trade and the bitcoin trade was already determined that global capital will own Bitcoin and will own gold. Then they allow the Trump administration to happen, and then Trump does. The tariff strategy wraps it in a MAGA narrative to make you think that you're onboarding your manufacturing and helping middle class America. This is capital outflows. This is a recollibration of the economy. This is what needed to happen because the Federal Reserve couldn't pump the Ponzi scheme one more time. So that's what we're experiencing right now. It is a bitcoin story. It is a gold story. And once people realize that tax reform doesn't solve the problem and only monetary reform solves the problem, then you start looking at Bitcoin strategic reserves, stablecoins and various other mechanisms. And this is why it is a story. We are in the right place. You just need to recognize it for what it is. And again, sorry to be parabolic.
Mario Nofel
Fred, go ahead.
Adam
Oh, thanks. Good morning, everyone. In line with kind of what Simon was saying, I think people would do well to think of the meme of the guy freaking out that says, look, a distraction. Because I think that's what the tariff issue is. And I'M not saying that to diminish the pain that we felt in the stock market or the pain that anybody, small businesses, large business are feeling. But what, you know, Simon's point is, is that, you know, and I might disagree with some of the ways he describes it, you know, controlled demolition, you know, selling out of certain interests. But I mean, I do agree with the overall point that we're at an inflection point with the monetary system. Things are changing, they're changing in a big way in America, a lot of other countries. I don't think China is as strong as, as people say is, you know, everybody's fighting to see what's going to happen next. And, and Trump knows this. I don't know if he's playing 97d chess, but, you know, he does know that these are the facts and he can control tariffs in the sense that it's an executive branch authority. He doesn't need to go through Congress to change them, unchange them, pause them, repos them. So it's a distraction and chaos that he has total control over. But what's happening in the background, which, you know, again, we've all mentioned and I think is the biggest change that we're seeing is everything is going the way bitcoiners and other crypto people want. Every single thing is good news. The laws that are coming through, the SEC cases that are being dropped. Trump just signed a bill. I mean, how quickly did that get to his desk? And the fact that it's all being moved around is he has to do this on the back end quietly, I mean, quietly for Trump. But you know, you can't do these things unilaterally from the executive branch level. And so now everything's lining up perfectly for, hey, we don't know if it's going to work, but let's try and get this system on some type of digital payment system, some type of crypto system to see if it works. And you know, in that regard, you know, you just have to, it's where I come back to my cycles theory. There's always some crazy catastrophe in the four year cycle where you think it's not going to work this time and, and then yet somehow it always does, you know, either earlier here in April or, you know, towards the middle and late fall, and everything's still lining up that way, especially with the way the legislation is going.
Mario Nofel
BRAZILIAN okay, Jonathan, go ahead.
Jonathan
On Fred's point, the stuff going on in the background, this is, and what Adam mentioned or was talking a little bit about Earlier, I don't think we talk about it enough but Trump and his speaking through his surrogates, his sons, they really do not like the big banks. They got debanked. Him signing the defi thing, huge deal. The yield wars that are going to go on between defy and big banks. I have this feeling that Trump make conspiracy or not wants them gone and that defi can do better borrowing easier, borrowing easier access and better returns than the traditional banking system. I think that's the big thing that's going on in the background. Not a lot of people are focusing enough on.
Mario Nofel
Mao. Zing.
Mao
Yeah. Just to Simon's point, I think what I, I would look forward in a full fledged currency war as a first sign is the Hong Kong dollar and HSBC simply because this is an underlooked issue. I think a lot of people are focusing right now on Taiwan. I think the focus right now should be on Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong dollar De peg. There was a story a long time ago of China trying to peg the Hong Kong dollar to the yuan. I think this story is going to get accelerated simply because it could serve as a mini kamikaze and as a first declaration, as first flex of China. And I think this is a very underlooked story and it really shows how much the US based traders really understand the connection between China and the US and this is a central story. I see very little coverage of this, I see very little attention to this story. But this is a major story and could be like a major play in whatever we see next and how this will affect the equities market, the long term bond deals, et cetera, et cetera. So this is something that I just wrote an article about it. So I invite you to look at it for a deeper analysis.
Fred
Did we leave Scott? I think Scott jumped off.
Joe
Yeah, it looks like we lost Scott. So I wanted to ask you some of the hands. Yeah, I wanted to. Go ahead. Adam, you had your hand up.
Fred
Go for it. If you wanted to debate. Adam, did you want to say something?
Simon
Yes. Second. Yes, thanks. Okay, so I want to just sort of pick up a little on what Jonathan was talking about and the current administration, banks, et cetera. So one of the beautiful things that's unfolding right now is the picking apart of choke point 2.00, which as everyone knows was an effort by regulators and then banks doing in a way the work of regulators to debank crypto platforms. And this is slowly, slowly coming, you know, the, the light, the truth of light is, is showing what was going on and it's being taken apart. And my, my perspective, because I deal with banks every day helping clients get banking and crypto and payments, is that the banks are no longer considering crypto as complete no fly. On the contrary, I've heard dealt with institutions that are like, let's go head over heels. We're going all the way in on this. And my view is perhaps there'll be an administration down the road that is less friendly to crypto, but by the time we get there, crypto will be entrenched in the financial system. And I think this is for the good and I don't think it's going to destroy the banks. I think the banks are going to jump on the stablecoin bandwagon because finally they're being allowed to. They're going to custody stablecoin, they're going to custody crypto and they're going to get busy doing all their financial services and God bless them for it. Loans, credit cards, mortgages, you name it, car leases in stablecoin using their existing risk parameters and their existing knowledge of that kind of industry where they add value. But these new entrants and these platforms that can move value more quickly, more efficiently, more securely are going to finally, if I guess, be integrated with the traditional financial system. I think it's fantastic. Briefly, briefly, back on the macro topic with M2 rising, there's, you know, I'm not an expert, this is not financial advice, but there's no, I don't see a version of the story where, where Bitcoin doesn't just keep going up and up. And then finally on the, on the currency, on the currency topic, you know, we saw the flash crash of the Chinese currency in, in the past few days. That's a clear indicator of where confidence lies. And at the end of the day, if you're selling goods around the world, those goods are going to be priced in US Dollars and so is your stablecoin, not in some basket of foreign currencies. So sorry to be all over the place, but thanks for the.
Fred
You there, Scott. Or should we jump in? I was going to say, I think it's the wrong word to say a flash crash. That was a strategic weakening by design to offset tariffs in a currency war. The flash crash was the US dollar. It crashed 2%. That is wild. And there was massive inflows into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. China weakening its currency is a tool in the currency war. It's not a flash crash around confidence. But I do agree, like putting a Few things together, things will be priced in dollars and stablecoins is the mechanism for ensuring that that actually happens. Because right now the banks probably got a bunch of. Because Credit Suisse is already calling up the Fed saying Trump reverse retreat. You are breaking banking. And that was not by design. And so the, the banks and financial. Sorry, you know, you don't, I don't.
Jonathan
Think Trump's actually trying to breaking banking.
Fred
Breaking banking is the end of the American and European empire. It would be the biggest disaster that could ever happen to Americans. American stocks, you are 1,000%, 2 trillion over leveraged and dependent upon the fractional reserve banking system. Breaking the European and American banking system would be the end of America as you know it today. Again, don't want to be parabolic, but no, he's not breaking banking. In fact, bankers are making a shit ton of money because they were being forced to compete with Elon Zuckerberg, Trump, Bezos, that are all technology plays that are about to be issued stablecoins. And if you look at the White House, there were all the bankers celebrating that. Charles Schwab, thanks to Trump, giving inside information on what he's about to tweet, made a billion dollars out of people yesterday. The banks are not being taken down. The banks are being co opted into our system. And so the banks are in. I agree it's not going to take out the banks, but it is a radically different model and techno technology companies and banks are now the future of the dollar. It will be a stable coin and it is a radically different level of profitability that the banks are able to make from this model. So everything becomes a data play and it is a very changing financial system. But no, Trump's definitely not taken out the banks. Trump is bought by banks. His number one backer is. Well, the number one backer was Elon Musk and the second largest backer is the Mellon banking family. So yeah, there is radical changes through this deregulation and this change of regime across the regulators in order to build a model where the banks and the technology companies coexist and stablecoins and crypto is, is, is really a part of it.
Mario Nofel
Hopefully you guys can hear me now. I was stuck massively in a glitch, but if you can, Jonathan, go ahead.
Jonathan
Yeah, just to, and go like a little further into like the macro side of things. Not really worried about the United States losing a trade war because they control the oceans. And that's been, that's been the case of economics, world economics for centuries. Whoever controls the water controls the world's trade. That's the reason why that little itty bitty island off the coast of, off the coast of Europe had control of the whole globe's trade. Because they control, they, they control the waterways. They controlled how trade was operated. And if the US's Navy is not out there basically funding and subsidizing the security of the trade waterways, everything goes to. So as long as that's still going on and the US Navy is still protecting world trade, things are going to be in the US's favor.
Joe
Wait, Jonathan, did you just say that you think that the US Navy is going to use aircraft carriers and submarines to stop pirates from coming after Nike shoes and that's why everything's okay? No, no, that's what, that's exactly what.
Jonathan
You police the body. They police the whole body. All the waters of the, of the.
Joe
Trade routes so pirates don't get them.
Fred
But to help you.
Mario Nofel
Yeah.
Jonathan
Off the coast of Africa. But for no time in human history has pirates have been kind of more of a moot point than since the navies had control of all the ocean waterways. Good or bad. That's just been how the kings are.
Fred
Yeah. So if you're watching the ports right now, America sold all of its ports to Blackrock. So 26 ports are being negotiated with China right now. Canal around the world. America is at war in the Red Sea to protect the Suez Canal and its special interest. If you can't see that there are major changes, just look at what's happening in the Panama Canal right now. America is using its fact that BlackRock is a major controller of the US economy in order to make sure. Because now it owns 26 of the different strategic port ports. But BlackRock is a global multinational financial institution that is not just an America first institution, it's a China, America Middle East. It is a global institution and it owns the ports because America sold all of its key assets to global finance. So then China comes along and says, how do we stop blackrock from taking over the port? It stops the Hong Kong investor and that Hong Kong investor because China is working in the interest of its country. While Trump is negotiating on behalf of BlackRock, 26 of those different ports are being renegotiated. And there's a reason why Trump escalated the war in the Red Sea because these ports are being renegotiated right now. So that that power struggle is changing as we speak.
Mao
Yes, Simon, and to your point, this is in this, this conflict between Hong Kong and Lika Ching, between China and Li Keqing who is obviously the, the, one of the big, the biggest landlord in Hong Kong and the, the, the owner of the shipping company that was sold to, to, to blackrock, et cetera. China is not happy about that. And China really looks at Hong Kong as like a weak link. And literally because, I mean, we used to live there, remember? I mean, Hong Kong completely changed and I think there will be like a last sacrifice here by completely like. I really think there is something that's going to happen in Hong Kong very soon, especially at the currency level. And, and because it ties into all the shipping, strategic, strategic port stuff. It, it, it ties in. Hong Kong is starting to tie into many things, including currency links between obviously US and China, port, logistics, et cetera, which are all very strategic things. And I think Hong Kong will be once again sacrificed to advance the Chinese agenda.
Fred
Yeah, I think people are making the mistake of thinking that Trump's in control. BlackRock is in control. And BlackRock and other financial institutions. The whole of America has been financialized, sold and all politicians are sold and bought for America is completely controlled. Even $27 trillion of its assets are owned by China. Most American assets are owned by China. Middle Eastern money, BlackRock, global financial institutions, and they are asset stripping in order to decide to move over to a more stable recolliboration of where their money is flowing at the moment. It's not Trump. Trump is doing what he's paid to do by his backers and just put a MAGA narrative on top of it to make it acceptable to Americans.
Mario Nofel
Everyone, I'm sorry I'm having such bad glitching. I can't even host this. Spaces is all over the place for me. So we're going to have to go ahead and wrap this one a little early and come back on Monday and try again. Thank you to all our guests. I'm sure we'll have no lack of topics to talk about. We'll see you guys on Monday. Thanks so much. Bye.
Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets
Episode: Trade Wars Accelerate, But So Does Bitcoin | Crypto Town Hall
Release Date: April 11, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
In the April 11, 2025 episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker delves deep into the escalating trade wars and their implications on Bitcoin and the broader financial landscape. The episode features a panel of distinguished guests who analyze the current economic tensions, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade dynamics, bond markets, and the resilience of Bitcoin amidst macroeconomic shifts.
Mario Nofel opens the discussion by highlighting the intensifying trade wars, emphasizing China's unwavering stance against U.S. tariffs.
He points out that China's response to matched U.S. tariffs and dismissive remarks towards former President Trump indicate a rigid economic posture.
The conversation shifts to bond markets, where Mario expresses concerns over rising yields, contrary to efforts to lower them to stimulate the economy.
He notes that the recent spike in 10-year yields to 3.86% reflects instability and challenges in achieving desired economic outcomes.
Jonathan shares a bullish perspective on Bitcoin, referencing on-chain analytics to support his optimism.
He discusses metrics like the Spent Output Profit Ratio, indicating that Bitcoin holders are not selling at losses, which suggests underlying strength.
Jonathan intriguingly compares Bitcoin's current stability to a "cheat code for crypto," highlighting its potential as a resilient asset amid market volatility.
Mario raises concerns about decreasing venture capital activity and the hesitancy of companies to go public in the current uncertain climate.
This reflects broader market apprehensions and the ripple effects of trade tensions on startup ecosystems and public offerings.
Simon introduces the concept of stablecoins integrating into traditional fiat payment flows, particularly led by Visa with USDC.
He posits that stablecoins serve as a gateway for traditional finance to embrace cryptocurrency, potentially accelerating crypto adoption.
Fred provides an in-depth analysis of the ongoing currency wars, emphasizing the strategic weakening of the U.S. dollar and capital outflows.
He underscores the necessity of monetary reform over tax reform to address these imbalances, linking the current situation to historical precedents like the Nixon shock.
Adam discusses the strategic maneuvers of major financial institutions like BlackRock in the evolving financial landscape.
He believes that these changes are paving the way for stablecoins and crypto to become entrenched in the financial system, forecasting a seamless integration with traditional banking services.
Jonathan and Mao further elaborate on the geopolitical implications, particularly focusing on Hong Kong's role in the currency war and its impact on global trade routes.
These insights highlight the intricate connections between financial institutions, geopolitical strategies, and the future of global trade and currency stability.
Mario Nofel (00:00): "Trade wars give us a great excuse to sit here and pretend we do [understand what's happening]."
Jonathan (03:26): "64% of voters think that the bottom is likely in soon."
Fred (12:46): "This is a controlled demolition. This is capital outflows and a recollibration in a currency war."
Simon (10:50): "Stablecoin is a gateway currency towards Bitcoin."
Adam (21:31): "Everything is lining up perfectly for a digital payment system to see if it works."
The panel concludes that despite the escalating trade wars and bond market uncertainties, Bitcoin remains a resilient asset supported by strong on-chain metrics and growing integration with traditional financial systems. The strategic actions of financial giants like BlackRock, coupled with geopolitical maneuvers, indicate a transformative phase in global finance where stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) play pivotal roles. The consensus suggests that while macroeconomic challenges persist, the foundational shifts towards digital currencies and crypto adoption are set to redefine the financial landscape in the coming years.
Scott Melker wraps up the episode by acknowledging the complex interplay of trade wars, bond markets, and cryptocurrency dynamics. The panel's in-depth analysis offers valuable perspectives for listeners navigating the turbulent waters of modern finance, highlighting the importance of staying informed and adaptable in an ever-evolving economic environment.
Stay Tuned: For more insights and in-depth discussions on Bitcoin, trading, finance, and more, subscribe to The Wolf Of All Streets and join host Scott Melker every weekday for a deep dive into the stories shaping our financial future.