← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Trump Crashes Bitcoin! Is This The Best Time to Buy Before The Bounce?
00:45:21
Trump Crashes Bitcoin! Is This The Best Time to Buy Before The Bounce?
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
One day our title is how Trump pumped bitcoin with news of a crypto reserve. And the next day our title is Trump crashes bitcoin. Is this the best time to buy before the bounce? It's an unbelievable market. This is arguably two of the most ridiculous days I've ever seen in crypto, and that is saying a lot. Sadly, maybe the other most ridiculous days were Trump and Melania. So it's very clear that my premise that Donald Trump now controls this market, for better or for worse, all your crypto are belong to us in gamer terms, has definitely come true. I'm going to unpack all of this today with Andrew Parish from Arch Public. This is going to be a lot of fun. Let's go. Let's do. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button you're gonna bring on Andrew right now. I don't know what streets I'm the wolf of anymore, but I have no idea what's going on.
- [01:14]
Andrew Parish
Well, I. I know what street Citadel wants to be on, and that's volatility. Volatility road. That's why they signed up. And. And that's how they. That's how they make their money and how they print money over at Citadel as the world's largest market maker, and that's why they're here. What you saw over the weekend is, you know, it's the meme where the guys behind the tree in the yellow suit, like, licking his chops because, you know, whatever it happened. Yeah, like, here we go. That's what Citadel is doing. Watching this. Price action and volatility has returned, at least temporarily, to bitcoin and bitcoin price action. And Citadel is. You know, Tom Lee was on CNBC yesterday, and, you know, he said a lot about bitcoin, said a lot about broader markets as well. And he's. He's as sharp a guy as. As there is. From an analysis and research on Wall Street. His firm Fundstrat, does really remarkable stuff for institutions across Wall Street. And yep, there it is. That is Citadel. Citadel is love and the volatility. So, you know, Tom Lee said that. You know, he thinks currently it's not Tom Lee.
- [02:36]
Scott Melker
I pulled up a picture of Tom Lee for you guys.
- [02:38]
Andrew Parish
Yeah. By the way, Tom Lee has extraordinary hair. I'm a little bit jealous because I have very minimal follicles, but his hair is. Is something to behold. It's an entire industry unto itself. Be that as it may, you know, Tom on CNBC talked about a range currently of between 105 and 62. And that that's he, that's where he thinks this volatility could take us. But at the same time, he says we're going significantly beyond 150 in 2025. And the single point that he made about higher than 250 is because Citadel is here and Citadel is going to provide additional, let's call it, availability institutionally. Right? So if Citadel shows up, you now have an immeasurable amount of institutions that are going to have their, their hands on both spot Bitcoin, bitcoin options, Bitcoin ETFs, and all the swaps and arbitrage and trades that happen there. So that was his point, that, you know, liquidity is going to significantly increase. It has been increasing over the past 18 months, and that's going to be turbocharged with Citadel showing up. And so his point is well taken that in my mind, volatility is an opportunity. We've, you know, we're watching that play out in real time. And though, you know, all of us here in the bubble that is, you know, crypto Twitter or even bitcoin Twitter, we're not loving the price action down at, you know, 83 and change from 109. But the reality is, is, you know, this is where, you know, sort of foundations are built for rockets higher. You can take a look at 2020, there was the same sort of formation that was created and then we just took off. Does that happen again? I don't know. But every meaningful dip in bitcoin for forever has been a buying opportunity. I mean, just every meaningful dip. And so that's, that's my thesis, you know, personally, and that's how I act as if. And so, you know, there's a lot of noise. You know, there's a lot of noise whether it be from the current administration, whether it be from, you know, people that are entering the market like the Citadels of the world, whether it be, you know, new global investment banks and, and custody mavens like Citigroup, State street and eventually JP Morgan. By the way, Citigroup is going to custody my bitcoin. No, thanks. They sent $6 trillion to some guy accidentally. And I think last night they almost screwed up again and sent. No, I think it was like 81 trillion or something. Something crazy. And then last night they accidentally almost sent like $6 billion to somebody. It was in the news. I'm not sure if I want Them.
- [05:45]
Scott Melker
Yeah.
- [05:45]
Andrew Parish
I don't know if I want their hands on my bitcoin. You know what happens? They push the wrong button. Not. Not great. Not great, Bob.
- [05:53]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Okay, so there's a few things to unpack here. First, is that we. We did this guy. Right? You talked about Citadel licking their chops to get into bitcoin. And. And at this price action, obviously. And we know a lot of people are loving dicks. Dips. But I said dicks.
- [06:17]
Andrew Parish
I mean, I will say that there probably is a subsection of the audience that falls into that category. I mean, we have to be honest. You know what I mean?
- [06:24]
Scott Melker
Probably 7%. But we could dig into YouTube numbers. It's. But I don't know how many of the males actually as well. I have no idea. But anyways, so I can't imagine people who are listening to this show today and not watching it. Anyways. There's another person who's licking their chops at this price action. We just don't know who it is. And it's this crypto whale who made a cool 6.8 million off Trump's crypto reserve news or other whales that had huge bets. But if you guys missed this, somebody basically deposited a ton of money into hyper liquid, made a massive bet long 30 minutes before the Trump tweet about the crypto reserve closed some of it when closed some of the bitcoin long when bitcoin wasn't included in the tweet, but then closed all of it nearer to the top when all the tweets came out. Okay, that's one thing. I could get that same wallet. I don't know if you guys saw this part. Turn that like 4 or 6 million into 81 million by shorting ETH with 50x leverage at the dead top. So just so you guys know, all of these shorts were 50x leverage. That means that at a 2% price volatility, you're completely liquidated. So risked, I think it was 6 million. I don't want to quote it wrong, but many millions. It's here. 6.8 million was the profit, but they had 4 million on margin. So they risked $4 million when Bitcoin was bouncing all over the place. And e, especially all over the place at the bottom. And then basically took their stack, put it back all on black at the dead top when if eth even went up another 2%, they would have been liquidated.
- [08:03]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, so.
- [08:04]
Scott Melker
So I'm not this person. This is like insider trading. And we'll get into that probably at A level I would say that like, would literally make Nancy Pelosi uncomfortable. So insider trading, I'm gonna let you talk, but I want to bring it up as well because it's actually important.
- [08:22]
Andrew Parish
There, you know, there's, there's been cries of insider trading, this, insider trading, this on, on crypto Twitter for weeks now. It doesn't exist in crypto. Okay. And then on top of that, insider trading is so difficult to prove in tradfi markets that there has not been a meaningful case in tradfi markets in a decade. The last guy that they attempted to get on insider trading now owns the New York Mets. His name's Steve Cohen. Right. He's seen as a hero and a king in tradfi markets. Go watch PBS or something to catch a trader. It's like a four part series on the government attempting in 2012-14 to try and get Steve Cohen and his firm at the time on insider trading. There were a few inside of his firm that got nailed and took a fall. There were a couple in that probe like Raj Rajaratnam that got, got hammered, but since then they don't. It is nearly impossible to prove. That being said in crypto those rules literally don't even exist. It's not traditional finance. These aren't public companies. You have to have meaningful knowledge that the public doesn't have on public companies. Right? These are public companies that are publicly traded. That's how you can get people in insider trading. It has nothing to do with Ethereum, ADA or xrp. You know, insider trading doesn't matter. Fraud, that's a different conversation. And oh, by the way, that time frame from 2010 to 2014 when there was insider trading cases that were really working hard at all of them were either settled or people got nailed for fraud because it's, it's almost impossible to prove insider trading and they haven't even attempted it in a decade even in the traditional markets. So all that being said, when I see somebody, you know, talk about, oh, insider trading, insider trading in crypto, I just, I just roll my eyes like you don't know what you're talking about because that regulate, those regulations don't exist in these markets. Now they may, going forward, we may get some regulatory, regulatory clarity as it relates to some rules over the next, let's call it 24 months as they come up with them with all these working groups. But I, I doubt that like these working groups are doing everything under the sun to tear down everything that happened in the past.
- [10:55]
Scott Melker
Fraud is going to be Fraud and it's going to be irrelevant.
- [10:57]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, fraud will be fraud and I'm.
- [10:59]
Scott Melker
Going to get specific fraud. Crypto fraud regulation. We will just get a work, a working group, as we've seen, that actually goes out and finds some of the more gratuitous fraud that's happening in crypto and elsewhere.
- [11:10]
Andrew Parish
But one could make the, one could make the, the claim where do they start? Right? Like, where do they start? Like the, the whole concept of, of tokens and issuance of tokens is insider ish anyways. Like, like that's, that's kind of at the foundation of, of the industry itself when you're issuing a token. So that would be a. I don't think the current administration is, is going to make a shift. Instead of having 12 lanes. Well, we're really only going to, only going to have six and we're going to do all. You know, we're going to go after a bunch of fraudsters that, that's most.
- [11:50]
Scott Melker
Likely what's going to happen. And I don't think we necessarily have any of these in the market right now. But like stealing people's money and sending it to your hedge fund a la sbf, that's the kind of fraud they're gonna find. The kind of fraud that happens to be in crypto but is the same as in any other market. Like, you know, like commingling funds and the obvious things but like launch. It's gonna take them a long time to I think sort those or, or they may just go after one big person to kind of like. Yeah, or something. Not that he did anything wrong. I'm just saying.
- [12:26]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [12:29]
Scott Melker
Gensler. Kim Kardashian tactic.
- [12:30]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, Something high profile. So again, insider trading cases for three decades often turn into fraud or racketeering type of outcomes where they end up getting the, you know, quote unquote suspect on fraud or racketeering or lying to the Feds in the midst of the entire investigation. And, and that's how it ends up falling out. So insider trading people stop. Stop saying that. It's, it's not a meaningful phrase and it, and it doesn't exist in, in crypto fraud is, is, doesn't exist in.
- [13:08]
Scott Melker
Congress either, by the way. In case.
- [13:10]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, exactly. I mean, literally insider trading is obvious to the entire world in, in Congress and nobody, nothing, literally nothing ever gets done. You can shout from the mountaintops and have the biggest. You can be Elon Musk talking about insider trading with Congress. Nothing's going to happen. Nothing's going to happen. It's been happening for decades. Nothing ever happened. So point being is it's not a, it's not a, it's not a meaningful response to the, the stuff that goes on. Now, I will say in terms of, you know, the whale that did this stuff over the weekend, I don't know who it is, we conjecture, would say there's got to be somebody close to the working group and, and all those folks, because you got to have a heads up. Because if you're going to take a 50x long position and, and if it goes 2% against you and you're liquidated, you better, you better be in the know. Right. You better be in the know or you're about to lose a ton of money.
- [14:13]
Scott Melker
That tweet's coming. Yeah, yeah. You know, that tweet's going. Everyone thinks, like, everyone thinks it's barren. Hilarious. But listen, so let's, let's move on, though, to the actual news because you and I haven't had a chance to actually discuss it because sort of the bomb that dropped, obviously there may have been somebody who tweeted when the executive order came out that XRP was going to be included in the announcement. Whether XRP will actually be included in the reserve, though, is a much bigger question still worth having. Right. So obviously we have this, which is Trump's mention of xrp, Ada and Solana may be bait to secure Bitcoin and Eth Reserve. So what some of this article is basically saying here on CoinDesk is the negotiating tactic of ask for a thousand and settle for a hundred. So basically overshooting the things that would be in there to make sure that he gets Bitcoin. And ethics, I'm not so sure about that. But from an actual, like, logistical standpoint, you, you've pointed this out. You know that it would be very hard to get XRP and ADA and such into the reserve, even if he wants to, because it will require legislative. Yeah, basically to do so. So, yeah, he said it, maybe he intends it, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's happening.
- [15:32]
Andrew Parish
So. So listen, Trump's crypto messaging and dalliances and Truth Social has been a mess. That's just the truth. It's been a mess. If I had to guess and somebody forced me to guess, my guess is that his sons are in charge of some of this messaging. I don't think Trump has any idea what ADA even is. He probably does with XRP because he spent some time with Garlinghouse and a few of his lieutenants. And, and, you know, they've given a ton of money to Trump. But, but I don't think, you know, here's the reason. Here's, here's.
- [16:15]
Scott Melker
I don't think he knows he launched a meme token when it happened.
- [16:17]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, I agree. I completely agree. So here's the tell as it relates to, you know, I think his sons are probably involved and heavily involved in this process and not him. When you put out a post and the first post you put out are Solana, XRP and ADA as opposed to Bitcoin. And then another post about Ethereum and the other three that just tells me somebody else is doing this stuff. And it's a, you know, it's a vote grab. It's a. Here, let me give you a little piece of bread for doing all the nice things you did for me to help me get into office. And I've got to feed some of these constituencies that, that did so much. But, you know, the information that I get back and by the way, doing everything I can not to give away who some of these conversations are with, but let's just say you did an interview with somebody that I know people inside of their organization that are legally that have legal chops. Okay. So over the past 48 hours, you had somebody that's very prominent and I have conversations with in his organization as well as folks that would be considered counsel for that group. Point being is, is that, you know, this. There's, you know, there's a real legitimacy to, you know, for example, xrp. Why is there a legitimacy to it being involved in the conversation? Because I haven't run the numbers, but they've given lots and lots and lots and lots of money to chatter saying.
- [18:03]
Scott Melker
He met with Charles Hoskinson the night before the tweet. I don't know that that's true.
- [18:06]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, I don't know if that's true.
- [18:08]
Scott Melker
Either, by the way. It's not aba, it's ada. I get, I get constantly corrected for this. I've called it ADA my whole life, but apparently that's not, it's not an accurate.
- [18:17]
Andrew Parish
Well, I noticed, I noticed that, that you had a day or two of, of hex reply guys. That's been.
- [18:27]
Scott Melker
Yeah, but I did that on purpose.
- [18:28]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, and, and I've spent a couple days with XRP reply guys.
- [18:33]
Scott Melker
I'm not sure you know this, though, but Hex just got, after all of that, I believe today or yesterday, Hex got re listed on Uniswap the eth Eggs. So after Richard Hart's To Uniswap's credit after Richard Card parts case was dropped. I can't the Hex Eve contract.
- [18:52]
Andrew Parish
All you can do is laugh at this stuff. Literally.
- [18:56]
Scott Melker
Don't do it.
- [18:57]
Andrew Parish
Richard Hart. I mean, posting nearly daily, absolutely garish outfits from Louis Vuitton and 12 Louis Vuitton bags. And that was his whole Persona. That is his entire Persona. And they're like that. We're just not going to pursue that, Casey. They were just, you know, just, we're just getting rid of everything. We're just, just getting rid of everything. So it's, it's not a surprise that I'm just uniquely interested in, in who's involved with the messaging associated with this stuff. That, that's what I'm interested in because it's, it's. There doesn't seem to be a meaningful, you know, sort of set of principles here as it relates to, you know, what the messaging should or shouldn't be. And you know, my final point on that tweet was, you know, how do you get XRP and ADA included in a strategic reserve when in the House you've got a two vote majority for Republicans. Like you get three people that say, I don't even know what this is, so I'm not voting for it. And it's dead. I mean you can't, I mean, that's.
- [20:13]
Scott Melker
What we're seeing with the, with the strategic reserve. I mean, we talked about this a bit yesterday, but you can tell even from, I can tell you this from somewhat insiders, but also if you listen to Lummis, you can tell she's a bit frustrated.
- [20:25]
Andrew Parish
Yeah.
- [20:25]
Scott Melker
Like she continues to have big news coming with bitcoin fees and she's giving speeches and she's holding committees. But she basically flat out said, listen, senators have no idea what I'm talking about. Yeah, this isn't a priority column, please, you know, so the odds of like a Senate passing the bitcoin strategic reserve look pretty thin at this moment with so many other things.
- [20:50]
Andrew Parish
Well, it was my contention when the whole strategic reserve happened that I'm a big believer in, you know, nothing as good as it seems or as bad as it seems. Reality lies somewhere in the middle. And the reality with the strategic reserve, whatever it is, is what is current currently on the United States balance sheet right now. So you've got a bunch of bitcoin there, you got a bunch of other stuff. It's fairly simple to take all that stuff. We're not going to sell any of it. This is what we're going to do. We have stockpiles. Those stockpiles are going to stay there and we're going to work towards legislation. That would be the easy sell and the easy thing to do. And my guess is that's probably where we finally land. There'll be other things that happen associated with the crypto working group and all that stuff, associated with regulatory structures that are very, very friendly. Allowing lots and lots and lots of business and development to be comfortable here in the United States. That'll be really, really helpful long term. Very, very bullish. But an actual bill that gets through the House and Senate, that's the bitcoin strategic reserve that allows the country to buy, you know, $50 billion of new Bitcoin or $100 billion of new Bitcoin. That's a, that's a tough sell. That, that, that, that's a difficult thing to work through. A very, very tight House majority. Like, what's the upside associated with that for, you know, a few Republicans in blue states? I don't know. You know, I, I don't know. Is there upside, you know, for things like tax cuts or, or, you know, all that stuff? Of course there is. But, you know, how do you, you know, two years from now, how do you put into a reelection campaign, I was the winning vote on the bitcoin reserve. When 80% of their constituents don't have any idea what bitcoin is. And what if bitcoin is down by 30% two years from now? That's not great, right? So, yeah, it's a, it's an uphill climb, but again, there's an easy win. The easy win is there's a stockpile that already exists, which by the way, has no XRP or ADA in it. And so you can turn that into, you know, you can turn that into the quote, unquote, reserve via stockpile. And there have been a lot of folks that have talked about that. I know Nick Carter has talked about that. Extend extensively. Anybody that's in, you know, reasonably intelligent in the world of crypto, Twitter has talked about the stockpile versus create Arthur Hayes.
- [23:34]
Scott Melker
You know, this time he did say crypto reserve, right?
- [23:37]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, yeah. I mean, listen, yeah, it's, it's commentary and it's, you know, Arthur Hayes probably had the best tweet about it. You know, none of you. You talked about it too, in a tweet like, this is not new. This, you know, executive order on a crypto reserve. That's not new. That's already, it's already been signed. It's already happened. And, but, but again, to expand beyond the current stockpile and expand beyond Bitcoin takes congressional action.
- [24:06]
Scott Melker
And you actually have to buy these things. Like these assets are not being held. They, they haven't been, they haven't been stolen or taken from any hackers or any criminals like Silk Road and Bitfinex Hack.
- [24:18]
Andrew Parish
Yeah.
- [24:18]
Scott Melker
By the way, that Bitfinex Bitcoin is not going to be the United States. At some point, it's going to go back.
- [24:22]
Andrew Parish
Right, right. Legally. So, yeah, it takes, you know, and for those that need a short civics lesson, you know, congressional action means both the House and the Senate have to approve it. And look at how difficult it has been even at the state level. Right. The reddest of red states are they're, they're not quickly approving bitcoin strategic reserves even at the state level. There's been some surprises where it's kind of died in the, in its first iteration where, you know, the State House.
- [24:53]
Scott Melker
All state houses have five for five on, like, you know, being dead.
- [24:58]
Andrew Parish
So. Right.
- [24:58]
Scott Melker
There's some that are past committee. We get excited about that.
- [25:01]
Andrew Parish
But like, yeah, past committee doesn't mean anything. You know, the, the state houses have a House and a Senate inside of them as well. And when you lose on the House side, it doesn't even get to the state Senate. So do I think there's going to be a state or two where it passes? Yeah. But it doesn't bode well, obviously, for a larger national reserve. Now, my guess is that the commentary, the tweets, the posts, the mentioning of crypto, that will continue. It's going to continue from this administration because it's a winning issue with a core constituency that did two things, voted in a huge numbers for, for Trump and for Republicans and gave enormous amounts of money, I think collectively, and you can check me on this, but I think collectively, as an industry, the crypto industry gave more money than anybody else to Republicans and, and to the Trump campaign. So that's. That means that the commentary is going to continue. It almost has to when it comes to politics.
- [26:11]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Something else maybe worth being on people's radars that we brought up yesterday and macro Monday, I didn't actually get to discuss. That's right up your alley. BlackRock adds its Bitcoin ETF to model portfolio for. First time we talked about Citadel yesterday, we talked these things to death quietly. Here is BlackRock saying everybody should have 1 to 3% in Bitcoin. And oh, by the way, we're now doing that in our own portfolios that every RIA in the country can copy.
- [26:38]
Andrew Parish
So this is the reason why I think that we're going significantly higher by the end of 2025 with Bitcoin's price. This is one of the three massive, massive catalysts. You know, there's a difference between BlackRock as an asset manager and say for example State street or bank of New York Mellon as a custody bank. Those custody banks custody 40 trillion or 23 trillion or whatever the numbers are. They're huge numbers. BlackRock actively manages almost $12 trillion. The biggest manager of assets on the planet. So when you add your most successful product in the history of products that you've ever done to the rest of your model portfolios, which by the way are a, you know, click, click for almost every advisor on the planet, right? BlackRock and Vanguard boomer portfolios are loaded with BlackRock and Vanguard product, absolutely loaded with them because they perform their names that they know their names that they trust. So inside of their Those portfolios now BlackRock is going to, not from an institutional standpoint, but this is their version of getting even deeper with retail, right? So if you're not buying, you know, buying our IBIT product outright, you're still going to get our IBIT product in a bunch of other of our portfolios as it relates to, you know, wanting to grow your wealth in a meaningful way. This is a huge, huge, huge deal. So you take this, you know, and say it's a 2% number over the course of the next 12 to 18 months inside of their model portfolio. Then on top of that you add Citadel and liquidity and Citadel licking its chops to be able to, you know, move Bitcoin through its rails and its pipes. That just means that at some point we're going to have moments where there are blow off tops. You know, I'm, I'm reminded of some of our conversations with Jeff park at Bitwise associated with, you know, op Bitcoin options and what that could potentially mean for bitcoin price at specific moments. There could be moments where there is a gamma squeeze and bitcoin spot price has to rocket higher because of the movements and the things happening with options. All of those things still sit out there and the opportunity for traditional financial players to benefit, benefit from all of that is literally, you know, waiting for a timeout during the game so they can check in. Right? And Citadel's about to check in. Black Rock has been playing and now they're just adding to their advantage. So, so these things are These things are real. These things at some point will come to fruition and there'll be moments where we see, you know, the proverbial God candle. So God candles when you're at 85 or, or whatever it happens to be today. No, excuse me, 82.
- [29:54]
Scott Melker
I need to check.
- [29:55]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, those are 25, 30k God candles now. Right. A God candle when you're at 41 is 10. God candle when you're at 82 is 20 plus. So these moments will happen that they're going to be out there. And, and by the way, you know, I've said it so many times about Bitcoin, I'll say it for Citadel. They don't get into markets to make marginal bucks. Right. They don't get into markets to add, you know, a small few basis points to their bottom line. They don't get into markets and then talk about them extensively at Davos, on cnbc, on Bloomberg, on Fox Business. They don't spend time hitting up Charlie Gasparino's and, and Eleanor Trenette's phones to be able to come on Fox Business and talk about their Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin products. They don't do that so that they can, you know, win a few extra basis points for the quarter. They do it so they can make enormous amounts of money. So Citadel plus, think talking about 5 to 700k Bitcoin, you know, we're in accumulation phase right now. So accumulate as much as you possibly can.
- [31:14]
Scott Melker
Perfect segue to talk about accumulating as much as you possibly can, because the Bitcoin algorithm has been doing that massively here on the dip.
- [31:23]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, yeah. Over the past four days, again, there's been extraordinary volatility. And so our Bitcoin algorithm arbitrage strategy has absolutely crushed. So you're looking at what I think are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. You're looking at six purchases and two sales. Right? So what that means is that when volatility hits, and you know our stock parameters, which, by the way, you can set the parameters however you want with this particular tool, but we have a few sets of stock parameters that people can choose. So our stock parameters are if Bitcoin's down two and a half percent, you're going to purchase some Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is up 2.1% or more, you're going to sell a little bit. So there's already a long bias just in those percentages and then the dollar amounts that you're doing on a, on those purchases are more than 2x long bias. So you've got long bias in percentage, you've got long bias in the dollar amounts. And so you know when volatility hits and you have an opportunity to buy Bitcoin without having to think about it. Because all of this is automated, right? These parameters are set, you put capital into your account and then you let the algo do what it is that it's supposed to do. You're not thinking about it, right? So all the volatility that happened over the weekend, everybody has lives, right? Unless you want to sit in front of your computer Friday through Sunday and somehow take advantage of all of this volatility and oh, by the way, turn yourself into an expert trader where you're catching the bottom of wicks on particular candles. You can't do this yourself, it's impossible.
- [33:08]
Scott Melker
So someone's saying 2% won't even cover the tax hit. You only pay on the profit.
- [33:14]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, yeah. We're not, we're not accountants.
- [33:18]
Scott Melker
Capital gains are only paid on the profit of that.
- [33:22]
Andrew Parish
Exactly.
- [33:22]
Scott Melker
That's like saying you shouldn't try to make money because you'll have to pay taxes.
- [33:26]
Andrew Parish
Well, here's the thing with this particular strategy, right? So not only are you affecting transactions in an automated way that end up stacking large amounts of bitcoin, but you're also generating cash yield. So if you look at that chart again and you're seeing in a small exit a sale up at 94k, you know, think about that. Wouldn't that 94k number feel pretty good today that you sold a little bit of, and that cash is sitting in your account. So on an annualized basis, you've got a 20 cash yield on spot Bitcoin that you're not leveraging or lending to anybody. It's yours and you have control of it in your account. And then on top of that you're, you're stacking bitcoin. All of this, by the way, is available to you for free. All of this is available to you also on Ethereum and Solana for free. So you go and you download, load the software. You have a Gemini account, you get a Trading View account. All of it is for free for 10 grand, 10 grand a year. So you can, you can stack 10 grand a year of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, all for free. Because we want people using these tools. These are institutional level tools. You can't go out anywhere on crypto, Twitter and find an arbitrage algo that looks like this. It doesn't Exist, they don't exist. And if they do, it's some guy sending you signals that you have to pay and then you have to execute on Saturday night or Sunday morning when you're asleep. Right? This is all automated and this is just one of the strategies. So our crypto algos, by the way, are algos inside of the algo. So you can have the arbitrage algo doing what it's doing and then say you want to take the yield that it, that it returns for you in cash and you want to use that every week to even buy more bitcoin. So you set up another instance inside of there. That's another algo buying weekly and looking for the best entry on the weekly candle. Buying more for you, say on a monthly basis, you got a ton of bitcoin and you want to sell 0.2% of your entire bitcoin stack once a month to generate more cash yield. Because we talk to customers, some of them have three Bitcoin, have 22 Bitcoin, have 57 Bitcoin. And they're like, when, when do I start to use this bitcoin in a meaningful way other than just hold it? So now you have three algos inside of one algo. One's arbitraging, so grabbing every low and high that it can for you. One is accumulating bitcoin on a weekly basis so your stack grows and then another one is selling a tiny little portion at the best possible strike price so that you have extra cash to live on. These are extraordinary products that don't exist anywhere else. I know I am shilling the, out of them, but it's because I, I.
- [36:17]
Scott Melker
Wasn'T giggling at you, by the way. I was giggling that while you were talking, price went from 82 to 85. I mean, now it's back to 84. 6. But I happened to like, I giggled while you were talking and I happened to look over.
- [36:29]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, yeah. So, you know, here's the thing, like our, our arbitrage Apple grabbed some Bitcoin at 84 last night. Last night, where you're sleeping, grab some at 84. So we're above that number now. These are things that you cannot do on your own and these are again, institutional level products that some pretty serious folks use at the corporate level, at the trading level, OTC level. It's, it's, it's remarkable stuff and all. By the way, if you sign up on our website, you get the capability to do this with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. It's not just Bitcoin that's for free. All three of them are for free. And you can begin using those now. Something else that I need to talk about in relation to Arch Public. Our most aggressive fiat or futures based algorithms in our concierge program have had an incredible run. Our NASDAQ Algos, our swing trade algos are extraordinarily aggressive. We tell our customers about that. But with aggressive you get incredible reward, but you also get increased risk. Again, it needs to be said that, you know, all of our Algos, they're user driven Algos like you can choose how you want to use them. If you want to use a service that executes on your behalf, if you want to have it on your hard drive and you want to be the one that kind of uses the levers and the switches. But in terms of our stock settings, since October 1st through the end of January, these NASDAQ swing trade alos were up respectively 54 and 61%. So huge numbers, just absolutely huge numbers. But last week those same alos took an absolute hit. So they were down 24 and 30% in totality. And effectively one series of trades over the past week associated with volatility to the downside. So instead of being up, are you.
- [38:33]
Scott Melker
Admitting that you didn't make money on everything?
- [38:36]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, that our Algos actually do at times take negative trades. So instead of being up 55 to 60%, you're up just, let's call it 30% over the past four months. But here's the thing. When it comes to any investment, whether it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and our Algos there, whether it's NASDAQ and S and P and our Algos on the other side, it oftentimes is about time in the market versus timing. So if you were a batch of our customers that came in on October 1st, you literally don't care about a 20% drawdown because you're up 60% to start with. You literally made 60% on your investment in four months. That's, that's crazy. That's borderline meme coin space, right? But at the same time, if you joined in the middle of November and that you're just flat because you saw an up uptick and then in one trade you've got a downtick, that's not comfortable, that's not fun. But in reality, you know, time in the market versus timing will always play a meaningful role as it relates to returns. Point being is there's opportunity that exists across the markets, right? Now, volatility will continue. It's our contention at Arch Public that volatility will continue to be sort of the name of the game for the next three to six months. The current administration has removed all shackles from the markets, both crypto and otherwise. One could make the case, you know, again, you hear the commentary on crypto Twitter that, you know, insider trading or crime is legal, all those things. Well, this is just what it means. The SEC put out a post or some commentary about, you know, meme coins are effectively legal. There's nothing illegal about it.
- [40:27]
Scott Melker
Not serious.
- [40:28]
Andrew Parish
Yeah, right. But at the same time, inside of that same commentary, they're like, you know, you do your own research. D Y O R. You got to understand that if you're going to get involved in this stuff, you're responsible for your own decisions and the decisions you make. And that has to do with any investment. You know, any investment. You're making the best decision you possibly can with the information that you have. And so whether it's crypto, whether it's fiat at ours public, whether it's futures, whether it's our crypto algorithms that continue to grow, the opportunity is meaningful, but at the same time there's risk, reward. So you have those conversations and you decide, because we have, you know, on the future side, we have Algos that are really conservative. We have Algos that are really, really aggressive. Our crypto algos are different. They are looking to do different things in terms of accumulation and using specific strategies that will do that accumulation for you. At the same time, if you've decided that, you know what, I've had enough of Ethereum. I've got a huge mountain of Ethereum and I want to scale out over a period of 6 to 12 months. Our algorithms will do that for you without you thinking, when do I sell or how do I sell? How do I feel good about this? Am I fearful about it? Should I be a little more greedy? No. Put an algorithm together with our team and with our staff that algorithmically looks for the best price daily, weekly or monthly to scale out of a particular asset and scale into another asset if you want. That is the nature and the secret sauce for us is that you're able to build Algos inside of Algos and our team is there to do it with you. And you don't have the opportunity to do this unless you're some institution employing an OTC desk at Gemini or Kraken or otherwise, and you're having to still tell them what to do and they're Having to do it for you. That's not the case here. You decide on a plan and you allow that plan to play out. And I go back again to the chart that we looked at earlier. You know, again, six to eight trades over this weekend, and volatility becomes your friend. You know, you're. You're acquiring Bitcoin and generating some cash. Yield up at 94, by the way, in a way that there's. There's just no way that as a human you can physically do and get sleep and have meaningful relationships. So, you know, get on board and use our product for free. Remarkable stuff. You know, I. Tilman isn't here because he's traveling. He's on a plane right now, I believe. But, you know, he's kind of at the head of our development and the work that we do with our development teams, the work that he's done to build our crypto algorithms to work the way that they do and to have a multiplicity of algorithmic opportunity inside of each algorithm. His work is outstanding and fantastic. His brain is much bigger than mine. I'm reasonably good at talking. He does all the hard work around here. You may not even hear this, but he does extraordinary stuff. And our. Our team does extraordinary stuff to build this stuff. So really proud of everybody involved.
- [43:56]
Scott Melker
Awesome, guys. Check that out. Archpublic.com. look, I put a little banner on there while you're talking.
- [44:00]
Andrew Parish
I like that. I like that.
- [44:02]
Scott Melker
I'm digging it because somebody asked on, and it was an X comment was like, hey, so where do we check this out? And I was like, I realized that if I put. Pull this up, you won't see that on X. Yeah. In the comments of YouTube.
- [44:13]
Andrew Parish
Yeah. Yeah.
- [44:14]
Scott Melker
All right. Awesome, man. So we did it.
- [44:18]
Andrew Parish
We made it.
- [44:19]
Scott Melker
We. We accomplished it. And now we're gonna move on. We'll be back next week, next Tuesday at the exact same time, probably with Tillman as well. Get some. Get some guests in there. Can't wait. But, man, what a. What a roller coaster here. It's gonna be fun to keep unpacking this stuff.
- [44:35]
Andrew Parish
It is. For sure.
- [44:36]
Scott Melker
For sure. Yeah.
- [44:38]
Andrew Parish
All right, man. I appreciate the time. Volatility is gonna continue to be the name of the game so far. Find a way to take advantage of it.
- [44:45]
Scott Melker
All right, guys? Exactly. Archpublic.com. that's all we got for you. See you next Tuesday. But of course, I'll be back tomorrow, 9:00am Eastern Standard Time. Later.
- [44:55]
Andrew Parish
That's dope. That's dope.