Podcast Summary: "Trump’s Tariffs Just Supercharged Bitcoin - Here’s What’s Coming | Macro Monday"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Wolf Of All Streets
• Host: Scott Melker
• Description: Host Scott Melker engages with prominent figures from the realms of Bitcoin, trading, finance, music, art, and more, delving deep into their intriguing stories and insights.
• Episode: Trump’s Tariffs Just Supercharged Bitcoin - Here’s What’s Coming | Macro Monday
• Release Date: April 14, 2025

1. Introduction

Scott Melker opens the episode by highlighting Bitcoin's impressive rebound, trading above $85,000 despite prevalent market uncertainties. The central question posed is whether President Trump's tariffs are inadvertently fueling Bitcoin's surge. Melker introduces the panelists: Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and Noel Atchison, setting the stage for an in-depth macroeconomic discussion.

Notable Quote:

Scott Melker [00:01]: "Bitcoin is trading back above $85,000 even among all of the market uncertainty. Are Trump's tariffs actually supercharging bitcoin?"

2. The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on the Economy

The conversation kicks off with an analysis of recent tariff adjustments under Trump's administration. Noel Atchison explains that although there's been a reduction in tariffs, the overall effective average remains high at around 21%. He underscores the potential for retail sales to surge due to front-running but warns of an impending recession, noting consistent warnings from the equity team about the elevated risk of a downturn in U.S. markets.

Notable Quotes:

Noel Atchison [01:00]: "The total effective average tariffs are still about 21%, about the higher 100 a year. Expects retail sales to jump a little bit on front running and sees a tilt towards recession."

Scott Melker [02:21]: "With gold on that record run, ... Do you view it that way? Do you think that there's an active attempt to unload US Debt?"

3. Gold vs. Bitcoin as Safe Haven Assets

The panel delves into the dynamics between gold and Bitcoin as safe haven assets. Mike McGlone contrasts the two, emphasizing that while gold is experiencing momentum due to central bank accumulations, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset. McGlone argues that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, particularly the NASDAQ, suggests its role is not yet stable as a safe haven.

Notable Quotes:

Mike McGlone [08:04]: "Bitcoin's correlation to stocks at best has been tenuous. ... We've seen consistent buying from smart money."

Noel Atchison [24:17]: "It's just getting started. ... I expect Bitcoin dominance will continue to increase."

4. Rising Interest Rates and Treasury Market Concerns

Noel Atchison highlights the persistent rise in interest rates, particularly the 10 and 30-year bonds, despite macroeconomic uncertainties. He notes that increasing yields typically signal trouble for equities, as higher rates make riskier assets less attractive. The discussion also touches upon central banks' strategies, including Japan and China's potential selling of U.S. Treasuries to diversify into gold, further straining the bond market.

Notable Quotes:

Noel Atchison [04:47]: "With riskless rates going up, that's a bad sign for equities typically because there's risk and which is the bigger problem."

Dave Weisberger [06:02]: "The risk premium crept back in. That's when the de dollarization ... started showing its effects."

5. Political Turbulence and Market Uncertainty

The episode explores the internal conflicts within Trump's administration regarding tariff strategies. Dave Weisberger points out that policy inconsistency is unsettling investors, leading to increased market volatility. The lack of a coherent plan exacerbates fears of a deeper recession, as the administration struggles to balance economic goals with political pressures, especially with upcoming midterm elections.

Notable Quotes:

Dave Weisberger [04:47]: "Trump started going off script and divisions emerged even within his team as to what the purpose of the tariffs was."

Mike McGlone [17:39]: "Eventually, we're going to end up with a coherent policy."

6. Bitcoin’s Resilience and Future Outlook

Despite the economic headwinds, Bitcoin has shown resilience, outperforming during periods when traditional stocks faltered. The panel discusses whether this strength is sustainable or if Bitcoin will continue to trade as a risk asset. Noel Atchison remains skeptical, citing Bitcoin's volatility and the recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs as signs of potential weakness. Conversely, Mike McGlone argues that Bitcoin's increasing hash rate and recognition as a strategic reserve asset underpin its longer-term value proposition.

Notable Quotes:

Nole Atchison [24:17]: "Bitcoin dominance will continue to increase. It's a bull market that's been a good sign."

Mike McGlone [35:22]: "Bitcoin is a very interesting asset. Its adoption cycle is actually ahead of many other technology adoption cycles."

7. Broader Macroeconomic Implications

The discussion broadens to encompass global economic shifts, particularly the rebalancing of supply chains away from dependence on U.S. markets. The panel anticipates that such shifts will lead to a global recession, driven by disrupted trade relationships and declining confidence in U.S. equities. They also touch upon the potential for stimulus measures from governments worldwide as a counter to the economic slowdown.

Notable Quotes:

Dave Weisberger [39:41]: "If the Fed doesn't get the yields down, what does that do to the budget deficit? What does that do to the world's safe assets?"

Noel Atchison [22:53]: "Crude oil gets to $40 a barrel. Gold probably $4,000 an ounce below 60."

8. Political Risk and Future Policy Directions

Political tensions, particularly between Trump and other administration figures like Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro, are identified as significant sources of market instability. The potential for impeachment proceedings and legislative pushback against tariff policies adds layers of uncertainty, making it challenging for investors to predict market movements.

Notable Quotes:

Dave Weisberger [28:20]: "If the Democrats get back the House and the Senate at the midterms, which if indeed there is economic pain, looks more likely. If that happens, then Trump is looking at impeachment proceedings yet again."

Mike McGlone [41:03]: "We are in deleveraging most markets. Bitcoin cryptos are part of it. And you're just telling us, your viewers, it's going to stop on a dime. I'm like, good luck."

9. Concluding Insights and Future Projections

As the episode wraps up, the panelists offer their final thoughts on the intertwining paths of tariffs, Bitcoin, and the broader economy. They emphasize the likelihood of continued market volatility, potential recessions, and the evolving roles of gold and Bitcoin as safe haven assets. The consensus leans towards heightened uncertainty, with Bitcoin's future performance remaining a focal point of speculation.

Notable Quotes:

Dave Weisberger [57:54]: "We're going to see the same from China, probably big scale fairly soon and it's pretty likely that should treasury liquidity continue to build then we will see similar in the United States."

Mike McGlone [55:21]: "Bitcoin mining is seen as strategic and bitcoin has been declared a strategic reserve asset in the United States."

Key Takeaways:

• Tariffs and Market Dynamics: Trump's tariff policies have introduced significant uncertainty into the market, potentially triggering a recession despite some short-term retail sales boosts.

• Gold vs. Bitcoin: While gold continues to benefit from central bank accumulations, Bitcoin's role remains contentious, oscillating between risk asset and potential safe haven, though its volatility poses challenges.

• Interest Rates and Bonds: Rising interest rates and unstable bond markets signal trouble for equities, with central banks adjusting strategies that could further impact global markets.

• Political Uncertainty: Internal conflicts within the Trump administration regarding economic policies are exacerbating market instability, with looming political battles potentially influencing future economic directions.

• Bitcoin's Resilience: Despite market turbulence, Bitcoin has shown resilience, but its future remains uncertain due to factors like ETF outflows and volatile correlations with traditional markets.

• Global Economic Shifts: The rebalancing of global supply chains away from U.S. dependence is anticipated to contribute to a global economic slowdown, necessitating potential stimulus measures.

Final Thoughts:

The episode offers a comprehensive analysis of the intricate relationships between U.S. tariff policies, Bitcoin's market performance, gold's enduring value, and the broader macroeconomic landscape. Panelists emphasize the importance of navigating these complexities with caution, as the interplay of political decisions and economic indicators continues to shape the financial future.

Notable Quote from Scott Melker:

Scott Melker [59:45]: "It's an amazing show. Can't wait to get started."

Follow-Up Episodes: The hosts tease future discussions, including deep dives into ETFs and their impact on markets, signaling continued exploration of these evolving economic themes.

Stay Connected: Listeners are encouraged to subscribe to The Wolf Of All Streets channel, follow panelists Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and Noel Atchison for more insights, and tune in for subsequent Macro Monday episodes.