← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Trump’s Tariffs Just Supercharged Bitcoin - Here’s What’s Coming | Macro Monday
01:00:03
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
Bitcoin is trading back above $85,000 even among all of the market uncertainty. Are Trump's tariffs actually supercharging bitcoin? We're going to talk about that and everything in the macro because it's macro Monday. Today we've got Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger and replacing James Lavish, Noel Atchison. This is going to be an amazing show. Can't wait to get started.
- [00:24]
Dave Weisberger
Let's go.
- [00:26]
Mike McGlone
Let's do. Let's do.
- [00:41]
Scott Melker
What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Going to bring on the amazing macro Monday panel. We've got Mike, Dave and Noel. Good morning, everybody. Mike, let's start at the morning meeting and we'll go from there.
- [01:00]
Noel Atchison
Yeah. Not much different from what we spoke about in the past. Estelle Ou's, our economist who works with Anna Wong, pointed out the tariff decline or pullback a little bit from Trump. Make the average tariff in China maybe from 130, down 100%. The total effective average tariffs are still about 21%, about the higher 100 a year. Expects retail sales to jump a little bit on front running and sees a tilt towards recession. Gillian Wolf stood in for Gina Martin Adams and pointed out the key thing from our whole equity team is something I've never seen from them and I've known that team for eight years. They keep pointing out the risks of recession in the U.S. u.S. Equity markets are still very expensive. The statistics she used was as far as earnings, it was about a 1.6 multiple in the beginning year, the US was the highest ever, now about 1.5 against the rest of the world. Still still very expensive and sees a risk for recession another 20% down and looking at a level around 4,000. The S&P 500 is kind of the key things. And then from our chief Equity FX strategist, Audrey Child Frame, just pointing out the acceleration of de dollarization, which to me tilts over to part of the reason gold's on a record run and part of what's supporting the bitcoin.
- [02:22]
Scott Melker
Mike, with gold on that record run, obviously seeming like it could be a little toppy, but has been on a record run and seeing the yields do what they've done in all this uncertainty. We have this rumor that Japan and China are likely selling U.S. treasuries and buying gold. Do you view it that way? Do you think that there's an active attempt to unload US Debt So Ira.
- [02:49]
Noel Atchison
Pointed out what happens is it's typically yes, if central banks typically hold the shorter duration securities typically five years on in and he said yeah, there's some of that happening as far as buying gold. Didn't really talk too much about that. But we've seen central banks accumulating gold for years now, certainly 20, 22, 3 since the Russians invasion of Ukraine. The key thing he point out is really mostly individual investors, private investors hold the long end of the curve. And long end was really the key story last week. But the key thing that was noted from all our strateg strategies is when you have riskless rates going up, that's a bad sign for equities typically because there's risk and which is the bigger problem. But there's some of that. I think that's what we're seeing. Even Ira pointed out just basis unwind a little bit in Treasuries, but not a lot. I mean it's massive positions going on. It's one of the key things that surprised me this year with crude oil collapsing that bond yields have gone up. But I look at it on, you know, I'm just tilting over to the one year basis. That U.S. treasury long bond, it's unchanged with, with coupons down a little bit this year actually it's unchanged this year too. That's the 20 plus index TLT with, with the coupon. And the key thing I like to tilt over is gold's up 20% and Bitcoin's down 10, about the same as S&P 500. So the key things that's happening in that treasury market is key thing remember as we, most of us who've traded treasury for a long time, when yields start picking up with distress, that's a bad sign for all risk assets, most notably US equities.
- [04:21]
Scott Melker
Noel, what do you make of the action with interest rates and particularly the 10 and 30 year that have continued to go up even with all this macro uncertainty? Obviously many saying that the reason that we were doing all of this was so that we could get interest rates down and refinance the debt at lower rates. Worked for, worked for about three or four days and then skyrocketed back up to much higher levels than even before all this tariff nonsense began.
- [04:47]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, for a few days we were in beautiful alignment. Everything seemed to be going the direction the administration wanted it to. But then things started to get confusing as Trump started to go off script and divisions emerged even within his team as to what the purpose of the tariffs was, let alone the strategy. And that's when the risk premium crept back in. That's when the de dollarization that Mike mentioned started showing it's rearing its ugly head. And I think what we're seeing now is, yes, risk, basically an exit from US assets more broadly, not just from overseas holders, although that is considerable, especially given interesting things happening elsewhere, but also from domestic holders rotating out of what they see as a likely less liquid market, therefore higher risk, into some of the other alternatives that they have that are as high risk. Now, this is the underlying thing that we have not seen since the pandemic. The world's safe asset act like a risk asset. And I think that is the biggest confidence shape here. It's not so much the flip flopping of communication that we're getting on whether there'll be tariffs or not. It's the world's safe asset is not behaving like one. And so as Mike said, where do you go? You go to gold. And as things start to become a little bit more settled, probably also bitcoin.
- [06:03]
Scott Melker
But I mean, to that end, you mentioned obviously the tariff flip flopping. It's pretty wild. Trump warns tariffs coming for electronics after reprieve. It's hard to even summarize how back and forth we've gone, right? Obviously we had the fully reciprocal tariffs. Then we had basically tariffs eliminated on the electronics and all these things and people going, well, yeah, we need those things. But now China's in the lead because they've reciprocated and they haven't given any exemptions. Then we basically have Lutnik saying these are coming back on, Trump saying they're coming back on questions about whether semiconductors actually are being tariffed or not. It's all over the place every single day. At some point I could see the like 40 chess argument. Now it just feels like they're panicking at every decision.
- [06:48]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, the 40 chess would have been a lovely argument. And I personally clung to that in the beginning because, you know, if anyone's read the Moran paper, it kind of does make sense. There's flaws, but it makes sense. And that's what we were hoping we would get. A gradual adjustment that would help the global economy reset onshore production into the United States, bring the long term yield down. That was the goal. And it was, I mean, doable in as much as you can thread a needle while riding on a motorcycle in a snowstorm. But at least there was potential. What Trump has done since he actually launched the reciprocal tariffs is throw Moran's paper in the bin, everything that Moran recommended, Trump is pretty much doing the opposite. And this is confused not only investors, not only watchers like us, but also Trump's team himself. I don't know if any of you saw the or listened to the all in debate. I think the episode dropped on Friday between Larry Summers and David Sacks. It got really heated at some stages and of course Larry is attacking the strategy, David Sachs is defending it. And while David Sachs did land some good blows in the end, Larry sucks. Sorry. Larry Summers highlighted how there just isn't a strategy.
- [08:05]
Scott Melker
Dave, your turn. I do want to talk, I'll let you address it. And then I do want to pivot to Bitcoin because we are trading around 85,000 higher than when any of this tariff nonsense obviously began. We know that Bitcoin has remained relatively strong even with that temporary dip. And stocks certainly still not back to the levels before all this.
- [08:25]
Mike McGlone
This when you get turbulence. One of the first things that, that you learn when you're trading is betas and correlations change. And you know, we have a market that is extremely dominated on the, in the short end by momentum traders. You know, listen or read Cliff Asness's report, you know, quarterlies or whatever and you know, aqr, you know, is a value investor and over the long run does very well. But the one thing that is there, there are two constant laments that he makes. One of them is, you know, people chasing a momentum and how, you know, that impacts the strategy. And the other of course is private versus public where private doesn't have to get Mark to market. When we go through all this volatility, that's off topic. Why am I saying this? Well, take a deep breath and take a step back. First of all, Mike's thing on gold versus Bitcoin, it's like saying that whatever, apples and oranges doesn't go far enough. I can think of analogies. It's not related right now. What's going on with gold is exceedingly obvious. There clearly are or have been some central banks that have been buying more gold. And as a result, what happens, it gets a bit of momentum. What happens when anything gets momentum in this particular market? Repeat after me. Momentum chasers traded. And so yes, you're right, I don't know where the peak is, but gold is still doing its job of matching purchasing power, parity. And we've seen as inflation decelerates, gold people will look around, central banks will stop and the momentum will leave and gold will revert a little bit. But it's still fairly valued right here. It's not overpriced. So could we see a run to 4,000 and then a pullback? Yes, absolutely we could because momentum is momentum. It's going to overshoot. So that's gold. Understand there is zero probability, and I mean zero probability that gold is going to reclaim its place as a denominator for financial assets. Not going to happen. Okay. Now it's not going to happen for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is we don't know what, where gold really is. We haven't seen audits. There's definitely rampant fraud underneath in the gold market in terms of lead painted bars. We know it's true. We just don't know how much. And it's one of those things that no one wants to open up that kimono and look, which is why we haven't seen a Fort Knox audit, which is why the, you know, we've seen the gold reshoring that we did. You know, there's all sorts of, of macrocurrents, but gold just is no longer suitable, nor does anybody want to. By the way, I was a gold bug for, for 20 years. So this is coming from somebody who understands that sound money will be a good thing. So gold is going to trade as gold's going to trade. Bitcoin right now is still trading like a sort of risk asset. And I say sort of because it's in the process of breaking through that and, and you can see it that way. The notion that Bitcoin's beta will be, will persist to the downside. If it hasn't been lost on people now, then I, I, I just don't, there's just no hope for you, you know. You know, Bitcoin's correlation to stocks at best has been tenuous. It's been up and down. Its move, its first move is always in the direction of nasdaq, not really the S and P that is true. And then it ceases when supply and demand factors overwhelm it. So we've seen consistent buying from smart money. And I mean the smartest money we're talking about the most informed. Whether it's the White House, whether it's, you know, whether it's, it's what Larry Fink has been saying, whether it's whoever. I mean, we've seen smart money buying and we've seen crypto people who, I hate to say it, but that's the dumb money. The people who consistently sell bitcoin to rotate into all coins every time there's A bull market, they think and they get carried away and they end up losing their satoshis to the smart money. That's what we've been seeing for months now. And you know, that's going to go on for a little while. I mean, look, people want to chase beta and the real beta is alts to bitcoin, that beta is very, very real. Now do they have different mechanisms? Are they different value propositions? Yes, absolutely. But that beta is very, very real. And so, you know, when I look up and down, you know what, what I see like this morning, you know, I see Solana is up on the back of it. I see xrp, which has been correlated to bitcoin ridiculously highly. When you consider that, it's kind of funny because, you know, they obviously, their use cases that there, there's no correlation. But the correlation to bitcoin and alts is very, very high. So I look at it that way. Now, as far as the macro goes, what you're seeing is an internecine fight within the administration playing out in the public. And you see a president saying, this might work out to my advantage, so I'm going to let the boys fight. In fact, Catherine Levitt even used the expression boys will be boys to describe Elon Musk calling Howard, calling Peter Navarro dumb as a box of bricks. And you know, so this isn't 4D chess. This is, listen, we want to reform our manufacturing. We need to figure out what's going on. We want to make informed decisions to make this happen. I want it to happen yesterday. But the world doesn't work like that. Anyone who's ever been a CEO or run a corporation or run a large team knows that you don't always have unanimity among your own reports. And you have a goal in mind and you kind of want to see it play out. And what you're seeing is in real time, you know, decision making by confrontation and argumentation. And unfortunately to the world, that looks like total instability. Sure, but this too shall pass. You might want to remember, Mike, you could pull up the chart. What happened in February of 2018? Trump won tariff trade war with China. Fears market takes a dump. What did he do? Backed off, blah, blah, blah. But some of it stayed. And Biden even kept those tariffs. Right. So, you know, we've seen this before. What is going to happen here, in my opinion, is we're going to unfortunately have to back down faster than we'd want to. Why? Because we don't have rare earth refining capabilities. I, I think you're going to see, and you should see a moon launch kind of deal, you know, into AI and rare earth refining. Because we can't get our own supply chain under control without the ability to process and refine rare earths. It's not just getting the minerals, it's the refining capabilities. The same thing you're going to see in chips like Taiwan semi announced that huge plant. I would imagine you're going to see them reach out to every other chip manufacturer to do the same. That's what has to happen and that's what will happen. And the market's starting to sniff that out. So why is the market not taking a dump this morning after Howard Lutnick came on? And effectively my favorite meme of the weekend, I don't know everyone it with the Seinfeld, you know, instead of Newman, it was Lutnick. You know, in big wet letters across it, it, you know, Howard comes out and basically says, listen, we're not changing our strategy. Yeah, I mean, we're not. But we may have to delay things a bit because there are things that need to happen. And you don't build factories overnight, particularly in America where you have 18 month environmental impact statements, but before you even have a chance to build anything. So this administration is figuring out what it can do and what it can't do in the short run. And as this plays out, market going to lurch up and down. Last point, you. Everyone's freaking out about bond yields. We had 5% bond yields a year and a half ago. You know, we're at four, we're under four and a half percent now. It's not where they want it to be. It's not below 4%. But why should it be? I mean, 4 below 4% is. We're going to create a deep recession, but you're going to go to, to bonds as a, as a safety valve. But it doesn't always work that way. And so if you create a deep recession and people stop saying, well, I don't want to buy US Financial assets in this recession, that I don't need to hold US Dollars, you know, maybe I'm just going to sell all U.S. financial assets. And I think they're starting to realize that that is a realistic thing. So I think you're going to see that talk get, get damped down.
- [16:41]
Scott Melker
But Dave and, and I know Mike's going to want to respond to that, but it's not really about the absolute number. It's the directionality of it, considering the situation.
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Mike McGlone
Oh, there's no doubt that the, that the up and down volatility making the US Bond trade like a cryptocurrency is, is ludicrous. And, and it has happened. But look, it's, it's a direct result of our, our two top actually, you know, basically the four top guys in the administration on economic policy effectively having a food fight playing out in national TV and national media. Right. You got Musk and, and, and Dissent, who obviously that's the team I'm on. We all understand that. I think they are the ones you want to be in charge of the economy and you have Lutnick and Navarro and they're fighting and there's no question that they're fighting. And Trump is basically saying okay, let the best arguments win, let's see how this goes. And that's what's going on. Eventually, you know, we're going to end up with a coherent policy.
- [17:39]
Scott Melker
It's like as Mike, I'll give you another take. Tim Cook called the White House and said leave my iPhones alone, dude. And we got policy.
- [17:48]
Mike McGlone
Yeah, it's not that simple because you know, you got Elon already in the White House. And while he has, he has a huge competitive advantage over all the other car companies in America insofar as Tesla is 70% US components, General Motors is somewhere in the neighborhood of 55 to 60% etc. Etc. And all the others are, are lower than that. And, but Trump, Trump, but, But Musk has 30% of his components that come from overseas. And I'm sure he said listen, you know, going to drive the cost, all of our costs up, it'll help my company relatively. But still really bad idea. And so he said it too. So you don't even have to wait for Tim Cook. But I'm sure everyone, it wasn't just Tim Cook. I'm sure a lot of the executives.
- [18:32]
Scott Melker
I was using Tim Cook as my proxy for big Tech. And anyone who they, they explained to.
- [18:38]
Mike McGlone
Them well, but they explained to them that we did we literally there are probably, I don't know, there's sensors, there's this. There are probably factories in China and in overseas that we just don't have here. Right. You know, we need to repurpose or we need to more to the point, we need to encourage companies to invest in building those factories here when we don't necessarily have the skilled labor. And people always talk about the cheapness of the labor in China. That's not what you heard this weekend. You heard, you heard productivity per dollar, not cheapness. Right. That's that's why you can't just move from China to, you know, I don't want to insult another country, but to another, another country with quite low, you know, low cost labor because the labor there is also skilled and you know, they've been producing three to four times the STEM graduates as us for years now. You know, don't expect that. It's all about cost of labor. That's what everyone always thinks. Yeah, but that's like, that's the last war that, that it used to be true. It's not true anymore. And so this is, this is complicated stuff, Scott. And it's going to play out over.
- [19:42]
Scott Melker
A long time point though. No, and, and we gotta go to Mike and Noel. But I mean, if it's complicated stuff, maybe don't just say everybody, you get it. Go full Oprah. You get a tear, if you get a tear, if you get a tear, if you get a chair, if it makes a lot of sense to tear up things that you don't need and maybe to consider, you know, the things that you do and not end up backtracking and rewinding all of your decisions when you realize that you're not going to have the things you need to run your country. Mike, what's your take?
- [20:11]
Noel Atchison
So let's look at talk about the elephants in the room. First of all, the lesson I learned in the trading pits is yes, everybody in the world wants free trade as long as they can run surpluses with the US the lesson I learned and in my doing my MBA at night is yeah, free trade is great for everyone. Trump is just the fact is he's trying to rebalance a global dependence on exporting to the U.S. been in place for 80 years. And it's just kind of entertaining to watch those of us who've had many independents when you shut them off. And that's what he's doing now, right or wrong, all that matters is this is almost a guaranteed global recession. The reason I say that, well, nothing's guaranteed is because these were the signs that we were pointing out two years ago. Remember that US unemployment rate never bottom that low without going 6%. It's just on its way there now. The whole goal, beating everything, particularly crude oil and industrial metals and all commodities, was a sign that we've had in the past that we're going to that global recession. But the elephant in the room is what's happening now to backup in US Stock market. So I like to say for all crypto people, if you're bullish Anything other than just certainly bitcoin and just a crypto space. You need the US Stock market to go up. So let's look at facts on the year. On the year. Just one year. And I know Dave's gonna point out time but this year is a paradigm shift. We have a very unique president. He's changed the world order. And gold's up 20%. Bitcoin's down 10%. S&P 500 is down about 10%. Do you expect that to reverse? I don't. I expect S&P 500 to drop a minimum a third from the peak. That's just normal in a recession. The key thing that happened was when the Fed cut rates and added fuel to the added alcohol to that punch bowl, it punched up the S&P 500 extra thousand points it shouldn't have. Now it's going to just take it back. We're doing that now. We're heading towards that recession. And the key thing, the most significant chart I like is one thing that Gina turned me on two years ago is you take that S&P 500 divide by the MSCI X US index. You go back to 1970. It's the highest ever but it's on been a straight lineup. It's the lessons of technical analysis is these things always avert. It's just a question when. Now we have a trigger to do that. If you overlay that same chart with bitcoin gold it's the same thing but they're all starting to roll over. We haven't. All we've done is gone back to the trend line. We haven't broken down. We're going to do that. It's a question of when. It always does. I think it's happening this year. That's my point is what you've seen on the screen so far is just a little bit of reversion of people are just learning, okay, the passive complacency of low volatility in the US stock market going up on the back of massive fiscal deficit spending and all the stimulus is over and we haven't even seen the breakdown yet. We've just seen a recovery to the trend. That's my point. This is the next big trade. That's why I still stick with at some point it's just a matter of time. Crude oil gets to $40 a barrel. Gold probably $4,000 an ounce below 60.
- [22:53]
Scott Melker
That's you know, finally.
- [22:55]
Noel Atchison
So. So as a headline I enjoyed to seeing today. It's just a simplistic thing in the trading Pits. And I love how Dave says the smartest people in the room. I remember learning that trading bits they were on the phones with me. The smartest people in the room they say can be dead wrong sometimes in certain things partly because they get stuck in their ways. And here's the key thing. I enjoyed seeing the headline this morning. Goldman Sachs warns of oil prices large surpluses through 2026. Now I pointed that in 2022 it's going to come. I was early stopped out of those wrong with just the power of markets should go up too much she goes down to offset that. That's what's happening in US stock market right now and it's got a very good reason to do that. The rest of the world's trying to rallies and they should the dollar, the stock market all linked and when you get to the highest ever versus the rest of the world the highest 100 years versus GDP. The stock market is the economy. There's only two examples in history. 1929 this country, 1989 in Japan and I'm open anybody give me better suggestions. So this is what we're doing right now. The key thing to remember is bear markets have the most severe short covering rallies are doing that now and they make you believe it's over. They may give you hopium. And that's my point is the whole crypto space is completely dependent on that stock market going up and it's going down. That's why I point out on a one year basis the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index is down about 30%. The Bloomberg precious metals index is up about 30%. If you expect that to narrow, sure in the short term but I expect that trend to just continue to widen.
- [24:18]
Scott Melker
The only thing I would say Mike is since the tariff announcement as we mentioned bitcoin is higher than when it happened and stocks are still low. So there has been some divergent strength.
- [24:30]
Noel Atchison
Completely admitted there's been a significant divergent strength. And the key thing I fully expect is bitcoin dominance will continue to increase. It's a bull market that's been a good sign. Now if it can tilt me over to getting bullish Bitcoin I don't know what's going to be. So I'll point out one little thing that I have the benefit of working with some really smart people as Dave always points out the one thing is we have this thing called Bico Bico economic models. My colleague works in the same office Josh Daniel. A bunch of people a lot smarter than with me. Numerous PhDs created a fair value model. That's almost exactly the bitcoin gold ratio. It's broken down below that low from last year, around 17. Bitcoin gold right now is around 27. You know, that's been the key thing I pointed out when it peaked at 40. I'll stick with that trend continuing to go lower. Lower the ounces of gold to bitcoin is probably going to at 27 now, just based on the model. They don't use any other things that I don't even understand most of it. But it's been spot on for four or five years. It's showing the models more going to 17. So I see the fundamental, the technical and the model pointing lower. Maybe we have something different. But then the bottom line for me is when I see my colleagues, Gina, Martin, Adams, pointing out 20% corrections in the stock market should be where.
- [25:43]
Mike McGlone
I'd love to respond, but I want Noel to have a chance.
- [25:46]
Dave Weisberger
You are sweetheart. Dave, thank you. Yeah, I mean, so much to pull on. When it comes to big bitcoin versus gold, the narratives are, I think, shifting. You saw the headline just from last week about Germany thinking about repatriating the gold that it holds under the New York Fed. Well, why does it need to do that? I mean, custody and transport of gold is a problem. And central banks around the world who have been custodying their gold in the United States or in Europe are rethinking that whole thing. So when there is, for the very first time, an alternative, a simpler, more reliable, more transparent, more verifiable alternative on the scene. That said, I do totally agree that bitcoin for now is going to continue to trade like a risk asset and it is sometimes going to trade like a safe haven. I'm of the view that that will always be the case. However, bitcoin's dual narrative gives it a higher floor because there is always a narrative to bring in buyers for whatever dip reason you happen to have on the table that particular week. But speaking of elephants in the room, the one that I'm focusing on, stepping back a bit here, is the political risk. There are legal challenges to what Trump is doing. The IEPA has never before been used for broad tariff policy. It has never before been used to execute a grand economic plan. Its intention was to respond to actual emergencies and whether a trade imbalance can be considered a national emergency. That is, obviously, there's some debate to be had there now. There is not yet much opposition in Congress. There are some lawsuits that will probably find their way all the way to The Supreme Court. And I don't know how, who knows what's going to happen there. It's going to take some time. In Congress, we're starting to see signs of resistance. Seven Republicans have co signed a bill to push back on Trump's tariff plan because of its illegality. Really, he doesn't really have the authority to do this. And I think we will see that accelerate as the midterms approach, as the economic pain starts to hit, especially in areas where Trump has a strong voter base, where the incumbents are afraid of losing their seats. And it's going to be especially contentious in the independent states, the swing states. And China's strategy here is intelligent. They're just going to be biding their time. They're going to be cutting off imports of produce, and especially where it's going to hurt US farmers, US producers, Trump's base the most.
- [28:13]
Scott Melker
They did that from 2018 to 2020, and it ended up 30 billion in subsidies, almost for our farmers.
- [28:20]
Dave Weisberger
And the stakes are higher this time, partly because of the boldness of Trump's plan, but also because if the Democrats get back the House and the Senate at the midterms, which if indeed there is economic pain, looks more likely. If that happens, then Trump is looking at impeachment proceedings yet again. So, obviously, all involved would like to head this off if possible. So I think the political pushback will be louder and sooner, and that adds to the uncertainty in the market. We can adapt to tariffs and people can get their heads around it. Nations can rewire their supply chains. What people can't adapt to is the uncertainty. Why build a factory in the US if in two years it turns out you didn't need to?
- [29:01]
Scott Melker
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Go. Yeah, go ahead, Dave.
- [29:04]
Mike McGlone
Yeah, well, a couple things. First, the one thing that always drives me nuts about political watchers in the US Is they get their cycles wrong. You know, I'll always default to remembering this Saturday Night Live skit back when, a year and a half before Clinton won, basically showing all the Democrats basically saying they don't want to run because there was no chance they could run. You know, politics is next year. This year is not politics. This year is about what will actually happen. Now, the point about the lawsuits and the bills in Congress, that's going to be a convenient excuse, in my opinion, to pull back and normalize the policies. There's going to be all sorts of. The thing you have to understand about Washington is all sorts of stuff. Now, look, I was in D.C. last week. I was at A fairly high level conference. People, not the CEOs, but it's called NoIP and it's all the people who are running divisions, mostly out through Wall Street. It was astounding how calm the audience was. The room was. Everyone is like, yeah, there's a lot of noise. It'll work out. And all I could say on the policy side, I suspect we will end up with some version of normalcy and we will see more announcements like we saw this morning from Nvidia. So Nvidia announces this morning that'd be making, you know, their chips in the United States. They have their first 100%, you know, supercomputer being made here. You're going to see more and more of those. They'll get touted. You will look at that and you're going to look back at this and you, okay, well, it was handled clumsily, but we end up in the right place. I mean, it's sort of. I would view this as Trump's version of Afghanistan, only nobody's died. Right. You know, in terms of the stupidity of leaving $85 billion of equipment in Afghanistan, 13 people dying because they didn't respond to threats. We didn't use Bagram. Air Force brace. No one, when it came to the election, even thought about that. Guess what? It was the same timing in the term. And by the way, in terms of a reason to not have a commander in chief, that is a far bigger reason. Right. If you think about it in terms of economic policy, I mean, all people care about is the price of groceries, what's going on. And all of that, I think will play itself out. That's kind of the way I look at this. And honestly, that's how the market is looking at it now. As far as Mike is concerned about the, the stock market, I will say this, and, and I want this to be clear to people who think I'm a permeable. I am not. This feels very much, very much to me like 2000 where we had a March sell off. It was a brutal one and a full recovery by June. It kind of coasted in the summer and the fall was ugly. We could have a very ugly fall. There is no doubt about that in the stock market. There's no doubt. Right. You know, it is extended. There's lots of reasons to think that. The only big difference between now and 2000, and by the way, there's similarities there Too is pre 2000 because of fears over Y2K. And I know that seems so quaint to people. All I Remember, is, is my, you know, one of my, my daughter was being born and my mother had to fly out. So she, my, my wife labor on December 31st. My mother was one of four people on a jumbo jet. You know, when he. Four passengers. There were eight flight attendants and four passengers early in the day on December 31st when she came out. So, you know, people were genuinely afraid. The Fed pumped a lot of money in the economy. It's almost quaint how little it was compared to the money that's got pumped in during the pandemic. But we did have a monetary bump and that did fuel a stock market rally, and all of that happened. But take that aside for a second. If you look at the denominator I E M2 in circulation and do a chart of the S piece correlated to M2, one of my favorite charts, and you take that denominator out or do the same thing with oil. Oil. It looks weird, but I would make the argument that 60 today is 40 on your chart, Mike, because is 60 is, is a point. It's below the cost of production. We've had inflation, what, 60 is the, that's right.
- [33:30]
Noel Atchison
Bloomberg New Energy Finance said the cost of production is around 50. They're smarter than I am.
- [33:34]
Mike McGlone
Okay, so 50. So what? All I will say is that's actually interesting. That's because of technology. It's, it's fascinating.
- [33:40]
Noel Atchison
Exactly. Drilling technology.
- [33:42]
Mike McGlone
Drilling technology is better. So drilling technology is offsetting partially the M2 when it comes to oil. Look, I, I, there's no doubt that we're going to fall in a recession. Cost of oil will fall below the cost of production. There's no doubt.
- [33:55]
Noel Atchison
Already heading that way. That's my point. We're heading that way.
- [33:58]
Mike McGlone
You and I don't disagree. And the stock market, that's no fun.
- [34:01]
Noel Atchison
Dave, I think our viewers and listeners want us to disagree. Come on.
- [34:04]
Mike McGlone
No, no, no, that's okay. The point is, though, oil dropping is a huge help in terms of inflation. Right? There's no doubt about that. So if they take the tariffs off the table, you have oil dropping, you have recession. Do you not. What do you think in terms of liquidity? I mean, you know, it's, it is clearly likely to be brought back in because the last thing the U.S. government can, you can afford is budget deficits increasing, which will absolutely happen if taxation decreases. And so, you know, all these things are interrelated and everyone has to understand it. And so when we, we look at the headline. Yeah, all coins are going to move with NASDAQ Absolutely. They have, they will, they will, they will almost certainly have higher beta. I think the downside beta is kind of played out already. It's already had a lot of downside beta. But yeah, you know, look, there's the coins out there. You and I both agree should be zero. Bitcoin. The real question is, is the narrative changing as Noel was kind of hinting so there. I think the answer is yes. And so that is changing.
- [35:10]
Noel Atchison
ETFs people are selling three months in a row now $5 billion. And guess what? In the last three months we've had 20 billion of inflows in gold. You expect that to shift? I think it's just getting started. U.S. stock market is only down 10. It's going to drop another 20.
- [35:22]
Mike McGlone
I, I feel like Tom Lee. I'm glad that more people agree with you than, than agree with me because that's how that, that's how, that's how bull markets go. But I do believe that bitcoin is going to be in, is in a, a different scenario because I think liquidity is there and it's still not even close. It's taking the 95 discount to where its adherence believe its value is going to be.
- [35:48]
Noel Atchison
Some, some people say it here, Mike.
- [35:51]
Scott Melker
Gold safe haven allure maybe fading with bitcoin emergence. There's a few things here that I want to ask you about because these are headlines across the board, Mike.
- [35:58]
Noel Atchison
To that end, from what?
- [35:59]
Scott Melker
Euros emerging as alternative safe haven along with buns. So we're seeing obviously yields rising in other places and maybe the appeal of treasury is diminishing. And of course this sounds like you. Ray Dalio sounds the alarm on global systemic risk, but Bitcoin remains resilient. Are we seeing an actual move on what's considered a safe haven asset at this point or is it just going to be.
- [36:21]
Noel Atchison
It's an oxymoron to say it's a safe haven when it trades three times the volatility of beta and gold. I mean people I could agree with, Dave. I wrote about it years ago, years ago it was going that way. But what flipped me, it reached a major milestone. It reached $100,000. And the things I wrote about for years, once we had widely disseminated ETFs and the mainstreams in the space, it's over. That means it's now. It's no longer. People are the insiders who got it from the very beginning so we can. It's not ad nauseam. Talk about bitcoin. The Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index of which one third is bitcoin is down 1/3. It's 200 day moving average is rolling over. It usually leads S&P 500. That 200 day moving average has just gotten started. People can play with this as much as they want. I'm just pointing out this highly volatile risk asset and the key difference with bitcoin and everything else in the world, it does have millions of dependents and they do have a much. It does have a much higher correlation to virtually all those dependents. Either way you look at it then gold has its three. So I'm just pointing out that's rolling over. The US stock market is just starting to roll over. You're going to get sharp shortcoming rallies. You're going to get hopium in bear markets. That's the stage we're in right now. How much higher it goes I don't know because it can go very high. But the point is my whole equity team thinks the stock market's got another 20%. Okay, I'm going with that. The model I see six Bitcoin gold should drop another third from where it is now. I'm going with that. Until proven wrong. I'm just show me good reason to be wrong. And I'm pointing out three months now all those ETF buyers have started flipping to sell, not all of them flipping to sellers. Why this has been a minor correction in what's been one of the biggest rallies in history. Certainly US stocks versus the rest of worlds. I have to point out the alpha in the world remains the US stock market when we start taking more money from the system, which is the lesson I learned in the trading pitch. When you hear a bad number, you just see see all sellers dropping markets drop a handle. You just see take out what you destroy wealth. We're just starting to do that. The key thing I want to point out is just tilt over to the macros. We have the macro to do that with the new Trump administration. But then I do want to point out, let's just point out things that some of us have seen in the past that one of the biggest bond bull markets in the last 20 years has been CGBS. Chinese government bonds 1.66 right now in 1995 I was trading JGBs. I've seen this before. Deflationary forces from the second largest economy. @ the time tilt over took a in a while. Now it's tilting over from China. And the key thing I'll push back. And Noel, China is not China. It's one human being. It's the most autocratic leadership since Mao. There is no natural checking balances. The key thing about this country is if this whole experiment from Trump doesn't work out, midterms will push back on it probably being a negative, but energy prices will be a lot lower by the time we get the next election. It flips off and we go back to the way we were. If he succeeds, which I kind of think he will, this will change the world for forever. I mean, it's 80 years of shifting. That's my point is that's the thing to remember about our current administration. They are all very wealthy business sharks and they are thinking about legacy now. Just see it from. They're thinking about how is the future going to judge us. We have one chance to do it. They're doing it hard and fast. They're pulling back a little bit, but from the future. We're going to look back in this and things like I said 30 years ago in a trading pitch, everybody wants free trade as long as they can run surpluses to the US we're shutting off the world's dependence to be able to export to us. This is a global recession kicking in. The point I like to make is commodities were showing that well before Trump is elected.
- [39:42]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, I totally agree with the the assessment that global reshift was needed. I was so excited when it looked like they were actually going to be tackling that. My concern is that the plan went off the rails and without a plan, there isn't trust. And without trust, they're simply not going to get the yields down. And this is where existential if they don't get the yields down, what does that do to the budget deficit? What does that do to the world's safe assets? What is interesting is even Steven Moran in the paper that I referred to earlier, he said that he recognizes that market volatility is going to be a consequence and he expects gold and cryptocurrencies to do well in that kind of environment. When it comes to Xi being one man, that is his strength. He doesn't have politics to worry about. He doesn't have midterms. He doesn't even really care about public opinion. And the Chinese have a lot, a lot more experience in weathering hard times than do Americans who go to the polls every two years practically. So that does mean that Trump is expecting China to blink and Besant is expecting China to blink. Everyone is saying China will blink. And what if China doesn't blink? They don't seem to have a plan for that. Other than walk back. The thing is, we know that Trump cares a lot about saving face and so does President Xi. So it's going to come down to a battle of wills and what's at stake is arguably huge.
- [41:04]
Mike McGlone
I mean, I just want to push back on one point that just drives me absolutely. Well, there's two points that drive me absolutely crazy. One, this dependence notion of millions of dependents. I mean, yeah, I mean, to the extent that there are lots of assets in the crypto world which will follow the price of bitcoin, that is true. They are not. They are insubstantial and getting more insubstantial in terms of the money flows into Bitcoin because the percentage of price setting coming from the crypto universe has been steadily decreasing over the last year in favor of people investing from outside the crypto universe. And so understand that if anything, that relationship has notably decreased, will continue to notably decrease and probably will eventually tail out. It is not the other way around. And first week of introductory logic, they teach you about correlation versus causation and where it comes from, and those two things are there. So I'm just tired of that argument. It's silly. It's no different than saying, and maybe you probably think this is true, that Nvidia's price is going to move based upon all these AI companies that are now having to do down rounds and secondary rounds because they were overvalued. I mean, just last week we saw yet another multi billion dollar valuation for a dude with an idea. Didn't even have a PowerPoint yet. Right. You know, it's like, it's. Look, we've seen this story before and when you get a dude with an idea in AI, being able to raise at a multi billion dollar valuation is no different than what we saw with pets.com, although that was actually a public company, you know, in the Internet bubble, you know. Yes, that is true. But to say that that's why Nvidia is going to drop, I don't think that's a really good argument. And I think that Nvidia may very well drop if you think it's overvalued, but it won't because of what's going on on quote dependence. But the real issue is something I've said on this program for two and a half years. I will continue to say it until such a time as Bitcoin is at least 50% of the price of gold. Bitcoin trades like an option. It is not stable where it is today. Just think about what that means. It is not at a stable price. Assets reach some relative to to everything else reach some form of equilibrium where you have a balance of buyers and sellers and it's where it's supposed to be. It takes a long time for that to happen. Bitcoin isn't even remotely close gold. Very, very stable relationship to purchasing power parity. Yes, it can move 20% here or there, but it's been pretty damn close. And sure, purchasing power parity changes over time because of the technology. Shirts are a hell of a lot cheaper than they used to be in, you know, 100 years ago in terms of part of a budget. But you can look at the over and see the same thing. Bitcoin is trading at 95 discount to its per its notion of purchasing power parity. Now will it get there? No, it may fail. It may reach stasis at a different level. But you know effectively what you're calling for when you make your 10,000 calls is Bitcoin failing because it doesn't. It would not be status.
- [44:08]
Noel Atchison
No, it's calling. GO has had plenty of backups. It didn't fail. The S&P 500 said 2 and I've lived through with real money 50% backups in the last few years. It didn't fail. It's not failing. You made that statement, not me. Let's make on point out the facts. I pointed out when Bitcoin reached a hundred thousand on a risk adjusted basis from an ETF standpoint versus gold, it had more than surpassed the valuation of gold. Just the lessons I've learned in commodities. Why do people and lot of investors not hold gold? Central banks are because it does have earnings. We're starting to learn that about Bitcoin. Let's look at the facts. Three months now of outflow some Bitcoin ETFs. They're learning the lessons. They bought leveraged beta, not digital gold because they're finally getting the lesson of US stock market going down and this highly speculative crypto space that can lop off a lot of zeros is way overdue to lap of zeros. And they're learning that gold is the one to go. And they're learning that UST bonds are less secure than they thought, which means gold's more valuable. But here's the key facts that I think I'll push back and noel a little bit if and or when we get the normal correction. The US S&P 500 dropping a third. That's severe deflation from the inflation which is a normal lesson of history. In the US just following the deflation in China and to suggest that an autocratic leader in a communist country his system is going to beat the rest of the capitalism world Good luck with that Noel We've learned that doesn't work.
- [45:23]
Dave Weisberger
So well it's not a question of beating it's a question of who can last the longest before flip flopping and my money is dazzling on China so.
- [45:30]
Noel Atchison
What does it mean for markets though? That's what it means for markets a flip flopping what pushes Trump out? Stock market going down My point is macro markets you can use that I want we can't trade that I'm trading markets I'm thinking markets that means US equities go down that's the pressure for.
- [45:43]
Scott Melker
Trump Mike, I think there's more nuance there Sorry before you respond Noel I don't think it's the stock market going down I think it's the bond market being unstable it's unstable now but well.
- [45:53]
Noel Atchison
That'S my point so if the bond market remains continues to do what it did last week yields spike that's bad for everything particularly US stocks that's my point it just makes it it's a shorter term thing because US government buys bonds it always have if they have to now they buy China's buying their own stocks that's a decent sign Japan's been buying their own stocks for 20 years that's what helped them bottom it's just the way governments work I'm just pointing out this is the next big trade the US stock market's so expensive that's starting to give up the ghost Unless you expect that to stop then you're okay being long cryptos if you expect it can you continue? It's very simple which I do expect the deflation in the US to kick in and on a 10 a 1 to 10 scale the thing that measures T bond that really just T bond rates in this country is inflation supply and all those other things are maybe a one or a two right now we're still in that de stagflation stage in your stock markets Fine Particularly rest versus the rest of the world it's just starting to roll over that to me is why like I said when I was trading JGBS and everybody told me the same thing back then that they turned out to be wrong US bond yields just followed that it just took a little while this is more global now and it's again thing that we've never seen our lifetime the US is shutting off the rest of the building to run trade surpluses with them. Just getting started.
- [47:07]
Dave Weisberger
And there is one concession I will make. I mean, arguably nobody in the world wants the US treasury market to fail. China is the second largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. Japan is the largest. They arguably do not want that market to fail. And so maybe there is some sort of compromise avenue along that. I'm skeptical. I still think this is going to be a stamina game and I still don't think that the US political system is going to give Trump the win there. But obviously US Market markets are much deeper, are much freer, and will have the capacity to bounce much harder. China does have other issues, but another pushback is on the ETF outflows. They are very correlated to the basis trade, not necessarily investor sentiment, but the basis trade. And that right now is unattractive. So a lot of the exits we've been seeing are the hedge funds that are selling that leg of the, of the deal.
- [47:55]
Scott Melker
Noel, if the Japanese are selling U.S. debt, obviously you said that the largest holder, China, second, is that to defend their own currency? Currency. I mean, the question is when people sell, what are they going to buy?
- [48:07]
Mike McGlone
Right.
- [48:07]
Scott Melker
So I'm assuming that's going straight into yen as a defense of their own currency in this sort of uncertain environment?
- [48:14]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, there is some of that or even just into domestic economy in any way. There's two things going on here. One, one, they could be divesting of some of their US hold buildings to defend their currency. Another is it could be a leverage chip, a bargaining play. Japan has said, and this was very smart, that they do not plan to use their treasury holdings as part of the tariff negotiations. That was a smart thing to do because that they're hoping to restore some calm to the market. There have been fears that they would do that and should they start to sell, well, you know, look out below. It's going to get really messy. I haven't heard any statements from China regarding their holdings. We don't actually even really know know how many they are because much of them are held through proxies. But I presume that this is a chip that they're going to be holding close to the chest.
- [48:56]
Noel Atchison
So I just want to follow up on that a little bit. I just updated my chart on aggregate open interest on the CME Bitcoin futures and the Bitcoin price. That's the same chart syndrome. That's the key thing I need to point out a bull markets always have massive disparity, particularly new assets like that. You get everybody in doing the army, quite involved with some of those listening people who are doing it and made some decent money on it. It's been the focus since futures started and ETF started. That's my point. Now it's in the mainstream and that arbs mostly over. But why? Because it's all dependent on one thing. Price must go up. That's why I like to say hold doesn't mean hold on for dear life. It means everybody's in its long haul as long as the price goes up. I remember using that in 1999 and 2007. It's the same thing. We're just rolling over and these are just highly speculative digital risk assets and bitcoins the leader. The problem is it does have millions of dependents. Gold only has three.
- [49:53]
Scott Melker
You don't have to respond to that one again, Dave.
- [49:55]
Mike McGlone
I'm not going to say it again. I will.
- [49:58]
Scott Melker
Where we feel on the crypto market versus Bitcoin.
- [50:00]
Mike McGlone
No, I mean look, you know, meanwhile, globally, when you look at the strength of the bitcoin network, I mean, yeah, it's backed off from its over 100, you know, thousand exahashes or whatever the hell. That number, that number's so big it's hard for my brain to complete. Whatever. What matters is we're five times where it was when bitcoin hit its previous all time high. And what matters is bitcoin mining is seen as strategic and bitcoin has been declared a strategic reserve asset in the United States. And there's all sorts of reasons and air cover for many, many things to happen. But when you look at that hash rate chart, it's actually gone parabolic to the point where it can't correct. It is the most obvious fundamental arbitrage in history. History, literally. And it, it's one of those things that it's. Well, because you know, yeah, you, you.
- [50:50]
Noel Atchison
See what's a great trade? I just say the great trade's over for now. I'm not saying it's going to fail.
- [50:53]
Mike McGlone
No, no, it actually looks the. Yeah, it's still correcting. No, it's not.
- [51:01]
Noel Atchison
I mean, well, okay, it's not a hundred thousand.
- [51:04]
Mike McGlone
Pull up, pull up the hash. No, no, pull up the hat, the price.
- [51:07]
Noel Atchison
Okay, you tell me someone you know who can buy and sell the hash rate and make money on. It's like talking about gdp. Sorry, you don't buy and trade it. Bitcoin is where the money is. You buy or sell it. That's my point. It's great. I love the hash rate. We all get it. It's been going up. I use that years ago. The point is the price is going down. I think it's going to continue to go down. Hash rate might be an indication to go up. But go ahead, trade that hash rate and see how that works out for you. I'm messing with you, Dave, because you can't trade it. It's just an indication. The bottom line is the price has been, is peaked at a hundred thousand. It's maybe possible.
- [51:36]
Mike McGlone
But you, you talk about oil constantly about know why does is oil going down. It's because people invested in productive capacity. But here's the difference. Mining hash rate does not create elasticity of bitcoin. It literally doesn't. It's because it's a zero sum game, right? Very, very different. So what you're seeing is either people, either the people who are investing in the bitcoin network are morons or they're making rational economic decisions based upon what they understand. And what they understand is that, that you're wrong.
- [52:09]
Noel Atchison
But most people trading bitcoin do it to trade, to make money, not rational economic decisions. The point is there's a lot of silliness going into space. For instance, bitcoin miners buying bitcoin, an oil producer would ever buy oil because they know that's their doubling down at risk. The thing is, I'm worried about when.
- [52:25]
Mike McGlone
Oil, tell me, would never buy oil. But oil is very elastic to oil, miner oil, oil drillers and bitcoin is not elastic to the miner miners, but.
- [52:35]
Noel Atchison
The miners.
- [52:38]
Mike McGlone
Why they're doing it is because the capital markets are giving them free money and they're saying I can mine and pay at a bear profit for electricity or I could buy bitcoin.
- [52:50]
Noel Atchison
They're doubling down and price must go up. That's called leverage doubling down.
- [52:54]
Mike McGlone
No doubt there's some leverage in the system, but.
- [52:57]
Noel Atchison
Okay, that's my point.
- [52:59]
Mike McGlone
I understand that.
- [53:00]
Noel Atchison
That's my point.
- [53:03]
Mike McGlone
Well, it's interesting. If one believes that bitcoin is becoming a reserve asset, it is dramatically undervalued.
- [53:10]
Noel Atchison
That's based on one human being that we point out and Noel point out earlier is facing a lot of, a lot of litigation. That's my point. Everybody put their hopes in. Mr. Trump. That's what's happening right now is that we are in deleveraging most markets. Bitcoin cryptos are part of it. And you're just telling us, your viewers, it's going to stop on a dime. I'm like, good luck.
- [53:28]
Mike McGlone
I'm not saying Anything's going to stop on a dime. If anything, I'm thinking it's the opposite. I mean, one could rationally believe that Bitcoin should be substantially higher than it is today based on having people from both parties. Larry Fink, who's not. No one's going to confuse him with a MAGA Republican. You know, it's, it really matters. I mean, Bitcoin is a very interesting asset. We could talk about this forever. I mean, obviously, you know, this is a macro show, so I don't want to spend my time talking about only why Bitcoin is where it is in its adoption cycle. But bitcoin, its adoption cycle is actually ahead of many other technology adoption cycles. And in those adoption cycles, you don't see corrections back to 90% very often. It happens, and we've had that happen in bitcoin. It has already happened at times. The question is now it's at a very different place in its origin. And we could talk through it. Look, we'll have a whole conference to talk, talk about this in, in, you know, a few weeks. You know, there's all sorts of hyper, hyperbolic. I mean, I, I stood up, I orange pilled like five people at, at a TRADFI event last week. And I don't want to go through exactly what I said, but the, the short answer was someone said, what's backing bitcoin? And I said, well, the world's strongest computer network isn't backing Bitcoin, but what it enables it to do is be a perfect conduit to convert energy into value. And that has value. And so whenever people say bitcoin is a utility, they're just missing the fact that there are African villages that have clean water now because they can effectively create power in remote places where that power can be channeled into Bitcoin to supplement the use of the power for things like, you know, purifying water. The same thing is true with renewables or whatever. Every time you treat Bitcoin like it doesn't have that capability, you miss something. Now with the rest of crypto, there isn't any of that. I mean, there, there's lots of stuff in the crypto verse.
- [55:21]
Scott Melker
Looks a lot like cleaning the water in African village. Come on, man.
- [55:24]
Mike McGlone
No, but I mean, but Jeff Dorman from ARCO would tell you that there are many crypto assets that have positive cash flows. And that makes sense. And I have quite, you know, been promoted. I think that utility will make a comeback in the back half of this year because there's Some value there, but there's also a lot of crap. I mean I, you know I, I, I, I think there's a lot of crap in the cryptoverse. I mean I think.
- [55:49]
Scott Melker
Just for the record, ARCA has to be literally the worst performing fund in the history of crypto. I was in it. They doubled down on Luna, sent a passionate letter about on the way down how they were buying more and going to ftx to get 100% on their treasuries and they've underperformed because I have left my money in there just so that I can mock them as a principle. But they've literally underperformed. Even the Galaxy index that Mike talks about out every month in existence since then. So.
- [56:16]
Mike McGlone
Yeah, well I'm not going to speak to that. Jeff as an individual is a reasonably smart guy. No, I mean however, and I'm just.
- [56:24]
Scott Melker
Final word to wrap this up as.
- [56:28]
Dave Weisberger
I'm sure, as I'm sure we're wrapping up soon to bring this back into the, the macro realm. We've been talking about the short term decoupling or not decoupling in the narratives and expl everything but what happens when markets have to stimulate again? We've already seen announcements from jurisdictions around the world saying that they will be stepping in to help stimulate their economies in response to the hit from tariffs. We're going to see the same from China, probably big scale fairly soon and it's pretty likely that should treasury liquidity continue to build then we will see similar in the United States. So here which assets will fare well in that, that scenario which is eventually going to be inevitable. Obviously risk assets, the NASDAQ drop will probably reverse but there's only one asset that is both a risk asset and a longer term store of value. And I'm wondering if when that change comes that kind of dual nature will end up becoming better understood.
- [57:26]
Noel Atchison
What's this trigger for stimulus in the.
- [57:29]
Dave Weisberger
US or in the US or elsewhere?
- [57:31]
Noel Atchison
Down lower assets, the stock market going down and then you get the stimulus. We haven't done that yet.
- [57:36]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, no, I don't think the US will not be the first. We'll see, we're going to see this start to happen elsewhere. And Bitcoin is a global asset. Doesn't really depend on US liquidity quite that much. US liquidity is the bazooka of all liquidities and that will only happen when the treasury market wobbles.
- [57:52]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I 100 agree with that and I think that a Fed cut at this point is, it's not particularly Impactful if it doesn't come with significant qe.
- [58:03]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah. I also don't see a Fed cut this year still. No matter. Unless it's for. Unless it's because something really bad has happened.
- [58:10]
Scott Melker
Yeah. I mean, you have Larry Fink out on the road show saying maybe they'll hike a little bit scary. A little bit scary right now. So anyone waiting for that Fed cut to save us, it might not do any.
- [58:22]
Mike McGlone
It is worth pointing out the one thing that came out out this weekend which is fascinating and not surprising is there's a massive pivot away on the Doge front and the budget stuff that. Where deficits are already increasing. Like our budget deficit this year is bigger than it was the first six months of last year. And that is stimulative. No matter how you want to look at it. It is stimulative. That fiscal stimulus, that money has to come, go somewhere. Right. That money is being spent and, you know, we'll see how that plays out. That's something we should pull on next week. James would love that topic.
- [58:56]
Scott Melker
That's interesting.
- [58:57]
Mike McGlone
That's his favorite.
- [58:58]
Scott Melker
That's a bit crazy and surprising. It's 1003. We did it. That was a really fast hour. I wish this show was three hours long. I could go full expert in on this one.
- [59:07]
Dave Weisberger
But it was fast.
- [59:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah, it went really fast. Well, thank you all. Noel, it's always a pleasure to have you keep us civilized, as they said. James is pretty civilized too, though. I don't know.
- [59:21]
Dave Weisberger
I think you're all very civilized.
- [59:24]
Scott Melker
Thank you. Thank you. And Dave, nice shirt. Another McLaren victory this weekend in F1. Otherwise it will, of course, be back next Monday with Macro. Monday and tomorrow I'll be back with the guys from arch public at 9:00am Eastern Standard Time and they'll. Until then, give Mike, Noel and Dave a follow. Thank you all and we'll see you next week.
- [59:44]
Dave Weisberger
Thanks everyone.
- [59:46]
Mike McGlone
That's dope.