Transcript
A (0:00)
Morning everybody and welcome to Crypto Town hall every weekday here at 10:58am Eastern Standard Time. And doubly excited as we continue into October. We have Bitcoin currently trading at a very respectable price of $119,670. Unbelievable. Watching Bitcoin effectively rise by over $10,000 in a matter of October begins and the government shutdown begins at the exact same time. Our first topic here obviously is the market heating up. Listen, stocks also on a record run right now even as the government shuts down. It seems very clear that nobody gives a damn what's happening with the United States government when it comes to stocks. We are in irrational, euphoric period here. And markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Dwayne, what do you make of the markets right now?
B (1:06)
Hey, good morning. Thanks. Well, I mean, you know, if we put it into perspective here, I mean, yes, despite the fact that there's a government shutdown, the market is overall performing well and in a way that's really expected. I mean, if we look back through history here over the last, say, well, 40 years, so we're talking like 20 government shutdowns, the market generally will move up by say a half a percent over the last, say the last six government, five or six government shutdowns. Even the last one, the market went up about 10%. So it's really the expectations here for liquidity, for the fact that we might go into a rate cutting cycle here. So if we juxtapose that though, with more of the macroeconomic data that came out, you know, this, this week, it was a fairly exciting week in the sense that, you know, we can see that the, with, you know, for example, with the ADP data, there's some weaknesses here. I think the private market lost maybe say the private sector lost maybe like 30,000 jobs upward to 30,000 jobs. We're seeing weaknesses in manufacturing, it's down for the last six consecutive months here. So we got to look at that. And then we have to contrast that with, you know, well, with growth, with all the, with overall, in, you know, market exuberance, with GDP growth, we're like, we're at what, like 3.8%. So we can see that huge contrast here. So, you know, these, these two areas are separating. So if we look back at say, you know, coming out of COVID right, we have this K shaped economy where you know, to the victor goes the spoils. We have asset holders and those with good jobs, college educated, doing very well while the rest of the, you know, While the rest of the market, you know, basically, you know, basically suffers here. So if we do go into a rate cutting cycle, that means we're going to see a big explosion, inflation in assets. Right. And then we're going to see maybe some more persistent, empty, larger days for Main street, for the other side of the economy. Now if we look at, you know, say bitcoin, you know, bitcoin and gold, they should perform very well within a rate cutting cycle as they have in the past. We've seen gold do very well and outperform bitcoin, at least within the last three months. But bitcoin is catching up. We're starting to see inflows come back into the green, you know, so if we can compare this to last year, you know, if we look at say Wednesday, Thursday of next week, if we're getting the same sort of inflows right now, I believe we're around 3, 3, 350 million or so. But if we get say 400 plus like we did last year, then, you know, that means very well, you know, very good for, you know, for October here. And we should continue to see people move to bitcoin here, you know, just to hold on, if not as a safe, as a safe haven, asset to hold on, you know, to hold on to their income here. You know, also just to go along with the overall trends here as we move forward.